Now that we have the full data for march, I believe we can extract some value out of the data itself. One of the main concerns is the raw number of games, which initially was not included. After alerting Marty, it was corrected and it should have the raw data. However, the games are weighted, but ultimately that just makes the data more reliable as lower leveled games count for less. Here is the
GOOGLE SHEET with the data. From this we can already imply a lot, first the implicit tier list, I based this off of 1630 but for other tier lists, just open sheet 9. Again I want to thank Ethereal Sword for helping me with the data and keeping my excitement in check.
This is same formula as the 3rd tier list in my previous major post. But, knowing how many games there are, this is probably not the most reliable. For example, the most notable trait is how high rock is and how low water and especially fairy are. I fail understand this outside of low sample size.
Here is an explanation of the main stuff in the sheet. The top left chart is a normalized win rate chart. Since the weighting system is very weird I just made transpose elements add to 1. The right chart is the simplified score chart. One thing we can do now that we have raw game data is build confidence ranges. This means that we can an x% confidence that the true win rate lies within a certain range. The chart below the top 2 is said confidence range where there are 2 cells for each matchup, meaning the true winrate could be as low as the left one or as high as the right one. I used the simplified scoring style in the table below that to prove a point. The
standard in statistics is
to use p < 0.05 ergo a 95% confidence which is what I used for my analysis. For example, take the ice vs normal matchup. The base table indicates 40% win rate which is solidly in normal's favor albeit not too bad. However, if we look at the confidence range, we see that the true winrate could be as low as 18% which is abysmally in normal's favor or as high as 66% ergo very much in ice's favor. What this confidence allows us to do is map out matchups that definitively in one types favors,
BUT we don't know by how much. This is what the lowest left table is(1 is win, -1 is lose). Let's break all of them down.
fighting vs rock(win): pretty obvious as rock has very little switch in to cc spam. Iron boulder is not saving it.
fighting vs bug(win): shifu and iron hands are rough and you have to rely on psychic volc A LOT to pull the win
fighting vs ghost(lose): uh, flutter mane,
but also being immune to stab fighting moves helps a lot.
fighting vs steel(lose): I know this MU very well, I ran rachi specifically for this. Iron hands + shifu is just absurd to deal with
fighting vs psychic(lose): scrafty and AV gallade is your main solution to psychic but things like hoopa-u do not bring happiness
fighting vs dragon(win): most dragon teams have arch, hoodra, and moon; already not a good start. Also, dragon rarely run super effective moves outside of the occasional dual wingbeat dragonite. However, this is by no means horrible.
fighting vs fairy(lose): pretty obvious as well because of once again, flutter mane
flying vs poison(win): maybe we should revisit the legality of gliscor. I can very much see why peng hates it
flying vs ice(lose): I know ice often runs cuno, but I don't think that is enough to even out the matchup. However, this is ladder so do keep that in mind.
poison vs ground(lose): The rise of amoonguss in tour games is a large part of why this MU is pretty bad as once gravity is up, you are done for, let alone the psychic + earth power lando-I
poison vs steel(lose): With hoodra, dengo, and skarm, sneasler and moth have a hard time breaking through. It also doesn't help that most ladder poison players probably don't use okidogi
poison vs fairy(win): Most fairy teams have no poison switch in outside kleki(amuk usually handles mane) which makes the rise of tinkaton very noteworthy
ground vs rock(win): I mean, what else do I need to say, with gravity up, you are forced to sack things until gravity ends
ground vs ice(lose): This by no means a terrible matchup as excadrill can do a lot and mamo can defo help, but the weather war I defo leans in favor of ice
rock vs steel(lose): If scizor exist, gg, if not it's still terrible as garg cannot carry that hard
rock vs fire(win): scarf kleavor is already bad enough, but with competing weather and lack of rock switch outside tran, it's pretty rough
bug vs steel(lose): Bug has nothing to break steel, volcarona now has to deal with hoodra on top of heatran. Arch is also a pain. I can see why so many bug players want to run slither wing.
bug vs ice(win): scizor is just absurd for ice to deal with
bug vs dragon(lose): If you run sub roost qd volc, then this is not that bad, but usually, it's too hard to kill the hoodra. Bolt also makes things very hard
bug vs dark(win): lokix, idk what else to say, mandi and sab is not saving the MU that much
ghost vs electric(win): I mean, electric is already a terrible type, it also doesn't have any switch in to shadow ball spam
steel vs fire(lose): can we please ban hearthflame... ok steel main rant over. ace + hearthflame under sun is very hard
steel vs ice(win): I don't think an explanation for this. Ice just does not have the tools to deal with everything steel has, god forbid it has scizor
steel vs dragon(win): one of the most common MUs in tour, but defo in steel's favor. Resisting dragon means you can't dragon spam and usually, even with chomp, it's an uphill battle. Plus, most people don't use kommo-o
fire vs grass(win): grass literally has 0 switch to fire moves
fire vs dragon(lose): this is an infamously bad MU as in prvious gens and ndm, fire has to run mega zard X, even then it was an uphill battle.
water vs grass(lose): I've seen aaaa and cee(as well as others) beating grass but I still think it's a hard MU. You have to rely a lot on the peli/pex
grass vs dragon(lose): meow is your only hope outside of running play rough on things like ogerpon. However, arch exist so this is not in your favor
electric vs dragon(lose): No koko makes the MU miserable as you have to rely on ice punch iron hands and raging bolt which is weak to dragon itself
psychic vs dark(lose): yes you have hatt, hoopa-u, and gallade, but that is not enough when your entire team struggles to switch into knock off, especially if the dark player wants to set up hazards with hamurott.
Now these matchups can definetly be tech-ed for but on average people are not going to run the specific techs often, especielly not on ladder. However, I feel like the other problem is just how centralizing some pokemon are. For example, pokemon like gliscor, hoodra, lando-I, arch, hearthflame makes some matchups absurdly hard, even balanced mons like scizor, kleavor, and lokix make certain match ups just a nightmare to play. I personally feel that we might need some bans but since we are close to champions, most likely it's not going to be worth our time.
As for an update on the simulation. I haven't been able to spend time on it because of school but I have started debugging the desync issues.