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predictions from the undefeated scientific method that I debuted during world cup
(1) Ewin vs (16) JustFranco
(8) hellom vs (9) Stareal
(4) NoName6293 vs (13) Vincent727
(5) Baddy vs (12) Storm Zone
(2) Welli0u vs (15) heileone
(7) Pkel SweeTforU vs (10) Skarpherim
(3) JJ09LIE vs (14) (Axzel vs bbeeaa) bbea wins, Axzel loses
(6) MinoGod54 vs (11) (vk vs SupaGmoney)
Ewin vs JustFranco - Excellent MU, you love to see it. I expect no bs brings from either side & I trust ewinnie to deal with franco here, as basicly one of the faces of SV, you can't let a SV hater best u. Let's go. hellom vs Stareal - While they got here with the same score one's path to get here was way tougher than the other imo & I can't see hellom's gauntlet ending now.
NoName6293 vs Vincent727 - I was saying this the other day swily reminds me of mrh last year except swily doesn't talk shit just says mb, sorry and has unlimited hax. noname can play as clean as he wants but what can u do vs unlimited hax.
Baddy vs Storm Zone - So storm started this tour rough but after dealing with empo I'm thinking he got his spark back & this is an excellent test to see if that's really the case. This is a banger mu between two of the best sv'rs rn, we eating either way. Welli0u vs heileone - Part 2. Grats to heileone for beating empo & all but in this particular MU he only managed to win vs an astonishing stall bring which most likely won't be repeated. This french fella has convinced me to put my money on him he's sheist. Pkel SweeTforU vs Skarpherim - Ngl stars are really looking aligned for pkel this tour, can he continue his hot streak?
JJ09LIE vs ( Axzel vs bbeeaa ) - Man just like empo vs storm was too soon for me jj vs bea would be too soon as well. I'm rooting for bea to get his individual trophy, but jj has had like the strongest performance this olt so far imo. This is a tough one, I have to go with jj for now but I won't be mad if bea pulls through.
MinoGod54 vs ( vk vs SupaGmoney ) - Can't lie minogod did superb to reach here & it's not cus he got lucky but I will have to go with either vk or supa, both of them have been through L's which forced em to lock in & I expect the same level of effort to carry on here which I'm not sure mino will match. If it turns out mino just outright smashes his opp again I'll be damned lol.
(1) Ewin vs (16) JustFranco
(8) hellom vs (9) Stareal
(4) NoName6293 vs (13) Vincent727
(5) Baddy vs (12) Storm Zone
(2) Welli0u vs (15) heileone
(7) Pkel SweeTforU vs (10) Skarpherim
(3) JJ09LIE vs (14) (Axzel vs bbeeaa)
(6) MinoGod54 vs (11) (vk vs SupaGmoney)
I think JJ, Ewin or Pkel could win this one, they’ve shown impressive consistency throughout the tournament.
(1) Ewin vs (16) JustFranco
(8) hellom vs (9) Stareal
(4) NoName6293 vs (13) Vincent727
(5) Baddy vs (12) Storm Zone
(2) Welli0u vs (15) heileone
(7) Pkel SweeTforU vs (10) Skarpherim
(3) JJ09LIE vs (14) (Axzel vs bbeeaa)
(6) MinoGod54 vs (11) (vk vs SupaGmoney) my personal hot take , mino win to go top 8.
(1) Ewin vs (16) JustFranco 55-45
I think Ewin has a great chance to win this game, but I think Franco is going to have a stupid sequence and somehow end up on top. I also think the idea of franco being stuck in the tour depsite hating sv ou is also funny as shit so thats part of the reason why I picked him. Hoping to see some peak balance, and that showing against sanesa was too damn funny
(8) hellom vs (9) Stareal 65-35
excited to see hellom play again, after his r4 qual. Both of these are amazing players but hellom is one of the best clickers and has a great shot at taking the whole thing.
(4) NoName6293 vs (13) Vincent727 60-40
ORAS main vs ladder main a question of all time. As excited as I am to see swilys olt run continue noname might be one of the best clickers recently. Noname also is focusing on other tours and is currently 3-1 in scl so maybe that will have an impact? i'm a big fan of swily though
(5) Baddy vs (12) Storm Zone 35-65
As much as I enjoy hating on storm zone, I believe they are locked in after that empo game. Hard to root against a fully dialed in sz, even if their opponent is as solid as baddy.
(2) Welli0u vs (15) heileone 54-46
both goated players, but welli0u's run was just too crazy so im giving it to him.
(7) Pkel SweeTforU vs (10) Skarpherim 70-30
Pkel is just one of those guys. Can't root against him hes a total g and a boulder believer. Rooting for you to win this.
(3) JJ09LIE vs (14) bbeeaa 65-35
JJ is one of the players that I think will go all the way. Hes an incredible player that I am rooting to see in possibly even grand finals?? I also don't think bea has the time to prep but we will see how much his belief in preperation changed after barely qualling top 16,
(6) MinoGod54 vs (11) (vk vs SupaGmoney) 55-45
MinoGod is more of a hopeful pick then anything. Both vk and supa are extremely locked and we will see how their game tommorow plays out, but Mino's a shooter. Hes a crazy dark horse for this tour but it'll be a great game with cool brings either way.
Sick playoff field for what will remain the best tournament on the site until the heat death of the Showdown ladder. Started to expand on my predicts and then I realized that my "pick the favourites every time and don't overreact to the tournament so far" does not lend itself towards fun predicts. So I'll instead just cover a few other things I find interesting.
1. Isn't it so much better when there's seeding? While I'd personally prefer to order players with identical Swiss records by some sort of ladder stat rather than random, I'm really into the way this year's playoff field looks. The first round has a solid assortment of matchups, and if all goes according to expectations we have some dynamite quarterfinal matchups (looks like Ewin/hellom, NoName/Storm, Well/Pkel, and JJ/SupaG). There's no quarter of the bracket that just looks extremely free. And also, like, from a spectator perspective, we have an idea of what the finals could look like! Well vs NoName? JustFranco vs bbeeaa? Obviously I have made my position on this matter known already, but yeah, this is better. Leaves OST as the only tournament without a seeded playoff.
2. There are two players who have now made OLT playoffs three years in a row. The first is Ewin, who's looking to replicate Separation's "win OLT after previously making finals" run last year. Here's the list of players to lose in an individual playoff finals before later winning, roughly sorted by gap between first finals and first trophy:
- Giga Punch (lost STour IV in 2007, won STour V in 2007)
- BKC (lost STour 14 in 2012, won STour 16 in 2013)
- ABR (lost OLT II in 2016, won OST 2017)
- imperfectluck (lost STour IX in 2009, won OST 2011)
- Giannis Antetokommo-o (lost STour 32 in 2021 and STour 34 in 2022, won Slam 2023)
- craing ;_; (lost OST 2017 and STour 23 in 2017, won OST 2019)
- Tricking (lost Slam 2017, won OLT 2019)
- blunder (lost OST 2015, won STour 25 in 2018)
- Punny (lost OST 2019, won Slam 2021)
- xavgb (lost OST 2022, won OLT 2024)
- lax (lost Slam 2019, won OLT 2023)
- Separation (lost OLT 2020, won OLT 2025)
- SoulWind (lost STour 15 in 2013, OST 2018, STour 25 in 2018, STour 27 in 2019, and Classic 2019, won Classic 2020)
Keen-eyed viewers might notice that Ewin's not the only past finalist. There's two of them here, and they play in the first round. Yes, JustFranco has come a long way since the activity-related controversy back in OLT 2024. Both Ewin and Franco are straight-up two of the best players on the site, and while I'm still a little unsold on Franco's SV OU (which, in my defense, is not helped by Franco constantly complaining about the tier), both would be deserving winners. Great 1 v 16 matchup.
3. Ewin's not the only player to qualify for this tournament for three years in a row. hellom's such a fascinating player at this point. I can't decide whether that 10-1 run ultimately helps their reputation as a player in 2026. Not only has hellom qualified for OLT playoffs for three years in a row, they've also qualified for STour playoffs in both 2025 and 2026. In other words, they've qualified for playoffs in the last five non-fraudulent individual tournaments that have featured SV OU (i.e. excluding OST). They're also 19-15 over their run of teamtours since SPL 2024, which is good! Going even over substantial volume in SV OU gets you drafted for 30k in SCL. So the question is, do you see hellom as someone with an incredibly high SV OU floor, with untapped upside that they momentarily reached in one tournament that they're trying to reach again? Or do you see them as a perpetual disappointment that keeps flaming out the moment playoffs start to the tune of an 0-5 record in the top 16 stage of individuals, the worst of anyone all-time? I don't know. I DO think that they're overdue to make it out of the first round, though, but Stareal will be a tough opponent, and I just hope we don't get a repeat of the egalvanc set in STour where neither player ever lets timer show.
4. Storm Zone's here in OLT playoffs for the fourth time in their career, and like Ewin and hellom, for the third time in SV. They're also the only player here that already has an individual trophy. I've been thinking about Smogon's all-time ranking lately, and I've been pondering where Storm Zone falls. I think somewhere in the 40-60 range, potentially slightly higher? A second individual trophy would vault them up for sure, I'm not sure how far. The closest comparison in that case would probably be august (the Stone Age multi-winners aren't a good comparison for anyone, and everyone else was either far more dominant at their peak or has far more volume). I don't think the win here is LIKELY, but I enjoy indulging in hypotheticals.
5. This is bbeeaa's 5th OLT top 16, good for third all-time after Empo and SoulWind. Like Storm Zone, it's their 9th career playoff appearance, tied with Punny and ima for 21st all-time. Of those 24, 14/24 have a trophy (15/24 if you count Bloo's Frontier). Just looking at the individual tournament stats, bbeeaa's probably more "due" than "overdue" (21/24 have more career indiv semifinals than bbeeaa's 1, and Bloo, xray, and ima are the only others with this many playoff appearances to never make the finals). That said, of course, bbeeaa's one of the most dominant players in teamtour history, and this year has been a journey of rough starts and steady improvement. I'm not betting on the win, but I'm not writing him off (also: it's possible for all of bbeeaa, Storm Zone, and JustFranco to make semifinals at the same time. I'm glad we can avoid the Latin American teamkills)
6. Congrats to Vincent727, PkelSweeTforU, MinoGod54, and heileone on qualifying for their first career individual playoff. The odds are stacked against you, but I mean, Real FV13 won in their maiden playoff this year, as did SirPeanutCronch and eragon. This is a tougher tournament in which to replicate that feat, but I wish them luck.
(1) Ewin vs (16) JustFranco (8) hellom vs (9) Stareal (4) NoName6293 vs (13) Vincent727
(5) Baddy vs (12) Storm Zone
(2) Welli0u vs (15) heileone (7) Pkel SweeTforU vs (10) Skarpherim (3) JJ09LIE vs (14) bbeeaa
(6) MinoGod54 vs (11) SupaGmoney
(and beyond that): 1. Ewin vs 8. hellom
4. NoName6293 vs 12. Storm Zone
2. Welli0u vs 7. Pkel SweeTforU
3. JJ09LIE vs 11. SupaGmoney
1. Ewin vs 12. Storm Zone
7. Pkel SweeTforU vs 3. JJ09LIE
Came to give my wisdom for this top 16 shoutout the Big 3 S’s(Supa, Storm Zone, Swily) for making top 16.
Top 16
(1) Ewin vs (16) JustFranco i always back the best player on the site.
(8) hellom vs (9) Stareal get them monster
(4) NoName6293 vs (13) Vincent727 it’s over for Swily
(5) Baddy vs (12) Storm Zone Storm is getting haxed by Baddy I can feel it
(2) Welli0u vs (15) heileone heileone wins I think
(7) Pkel SweeTforU vs (10) Skarpherim I back Pk EL
(3) JJ09LIE vs (14) bbeeaa I will be jolly for once
(6) MinoGod54 vs (11) SupaGmoney quarter final runs for big stallcord
Top 16
(1) Ewin vs (16) JustFranco
(8) hellom vs (9) Stareal
(4) NoName6293 vs (13) Vincent727
(5) Baddy vs (12) Storm Zone
(2) Welli0u vs (15) heileone
(7) Pkel SweeTforU vs (10) Skarpherim
(3) JJ09LIE vs (14) bbeeaa
(6) MinoGod54 vs (11) SupaGmoney
(1) Ewin vs (16) JustFranco
(8) hellom vs (9) Stareal
(4) NoName6293 vs (13) Vincent727
(5) Baddy vs (12) Storm Zone
(2) Welli0u vs (15) heileone
(7) Pkel SweeTforU vs (10) Skarpherim
(3) JJ09LIE vs (14) bbeeaa
(6) MinoGod54 vs (11) SupaGmoney
