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Smogon Champions League VI - Semifinals

Emerging from slumber to think out loud about tiebreak picks. Here is what I'd predict:

OU: Vert vs xavgb

(Breakers) NU: Nat vs lax

(Shoguns) PU: Trichotomy vs JustFranco

(I actually already know whether I'm right or wrong but shhhh)

Vert is obviously playing in OU, there's zero point speculating on anything else. Breakers are less clear. Their best OU starter this year was SoulWind, who would be at a strong disadvantage against Vert and I'm sure the team would rather flex someone else. stresh, JustFranco, and Nat all have cases. If the pick is Nat NU/Franco defense, then it's pretty clear. That said, of course, picking Nat NU tiebreak when the Shoguns have lax is pretty aggressive. You're saying "I don't care who you have, we're going with our best player and daring you to beat her." Reminiscent of the time the Classiest picked McMeghan ADV into a player that had already beaten him that tour (twice?) If you'd rather not make that play, Nat doesn't have an obvious place to flex into on defense, and I think you can reasonably make the argument that she's the Breakers' best OU player right now.

With that said, I think stresh is the obvious pick here for the simple reason that the Breakers are the ones that bought him. It's easy to look from an outsider's POV and say, well, maybe he's out of form, maybe he doesn't like the tier, whatever. Obviously you shouldn't be totally out on him after one rough season, but it's also true that he hasn't been super active for like two years. I can't speculate on what the Breakers know about their players' current form, either. But all I know is that this is the team that liked stresh enough to win the bidding for him, right at the start of the auction. Of all the teams that I think would believe in him to win a tiebreak game against Vert, I assume it's this one.

Noteworthy advantage the Breakers have in this tiebreak: despite Trichotomy's season, Shoguns PU seems like an unlikely option here because they'd probably have to deal with JustFranco on defense. The ways to take JustFranco out of the game on defense would be Ubers, LC, or DOU, none of which are happening. But honestly, on reflection they might have no choice.

Now, as far as the Breakers are concerned, I assume they want to find a way to get Nat, JustFranco, and stresh in there. Ann might be 7-3, but I just don't think DOU is ever happening. After stresh's season, I think you at least have to be hesitant about picking a tier for him, so defense or OU seems most logical. That leaves you with basically two attacking possibilities: Nat NU or JustFranco UU (I think Nat OU2 is mathematically real, probably forces either Nat-Axzel OU and lax-Franco lowtier matchups. That seems worse than whatever else the Breakers can force at first glance, but I'll come back to it)

Breakers NU: This is the route where you just go in guns blazing and bet Nat to win the rematch with lax. In this world, the Shoguns can either pick a lower tier into JustFranco (likely PU or RU, but I don't feel great about either), pick one of the other tiers (likely ass), or force JustFranco to play someone in OU. That someone is likely Axzel, although the hypothetical CTC play would be the hype one. In this world, I think the Breakers would be very happy; you have your best player in a tier she's 8-2 in, in a H2H she's 2-0 in this season, and you're arguably favoured in your defense tier. Why would you not go this route? Well, because lax is good! You definitely do not need to stretch to hard to see, like, Nat-lax and JustFranco-hjkhj/Trichotomy as a pair of even matchups, and then Vert is favoured. What else can you do?

Breakers UU: You get a guaranteed matchup that the Shoguns are not, on paper, equipped to defend. Putting lax there is Franco favoured, using lax for the most obvious attacking tiers (OU and NU) will just get the Nat matchup, picking some other random tier means that the Breakers can just swap Nat into UU and have Franco defend. Something like something like lax-Nat OU/NU + JustFranco-Sabella? UU is just the above scenario but better for Breakers. If the Shoguns try to force Franco off of UU with something like PU for Trichotomy, you get lax-Nat UU and Trichotomy-JustFranco PU, something like that? Lowkey, I'm not sure if that's better? Alternatively, could the Breakers prefer Vert-Nat OU, lax-JustFranco UU, and Trichotomy-xavgb PU?

Regardless, you can kinda see the thought process. If the Breakers pick NU, then the Shoguns likely just use lax there (the alternative is, what, feeding someone to Nat and then picking lax-JustFranco OU? is that even favoured?), and so you just pick your strongest slot knowing that Franco will likely be there. And if the Breakers pick UU, you still don't have an obvious tier to attack with lax that wouldn't get defended by Nat, so you try to force Franco to defend by picking a different low tier. Honestly, flip a coin. I think the Nat-lax rematch is very likely and the Breakers basically get to pick the tier. Personally, if I'm the Breakers, I'd rather NU.
 
SV OU: Vert vs SoulWind - Free Stresh school walkouts will leave classrooms empty across the world… Jokes aside, hype match even without Stresh. Soulwind-Vert still has some of the best name recognition of any possible matchup. Soulwind is no slouch despite an up-and-down season and his resume matches up with anyone historically, but he’s still currently having his best SCL all generation while being…5-5. We know he’s a great player and could play up to the moment; we have seen him have some amazing clutch performances over the years in tours like SPL, for example. I think play wise this is a close matchup, but in SV OU there are certain instincts and positive experiences with teams/feel that are hard to compensate for. As a result, it’s hard for anyone who doesn’t build much to hold their own against Vert, who dominated his semis game and has been stronger in SV OU throughout the gen than just about anybody. Vert distinguishes himself nicely in the builder while really owning his teams and understanding how to win matchups across the spectrum better than just about anyone else. In short, he has the it factor this generation. Very excited to see the teams he uses each week and curious if they bring a Psychic resist against the best Deoxys-Speed spammer this time around. I’d say this is 65/35, but with the right work before the match, can easily creep closer to 50/50.

SV UU: lax vs JustFranco - This is tough because my gut says to pick the overall better player, which I feel is lax slightly. Franco just makes it so hard to prep due to his ability to use anything on either extreme. We have seen Terrain, we have seen stall, we have seen fat balance, and I am sure he can use weather or screens in whatever capacity they exist in UU. I just think this isn’t the most welcoming set of circumstances for someone playing UU on shorter notice. Sabella has been solid and can perhaps provide support to lax and I am sure they have other helpers, but it could be uphill. What’s pushing me back towards lax is he is not afraid of the moment. He has won a ton of similar games (series deciders, tiebreaks, finals, etc) before and he has been one of the more adaptable players the last few generations. I guess I’ll go with my gut and his track record, but it’s really more of a count for me than anything else, 55/45 for the sake of odds.

SV PU: Trichotomy vs Nat - Similar to last matchup where we have a historically great player put in a new metagame for the tiebreak, but this time it’s on the other side with Nat in to play PU against Trich. Trich has been amazing this season, but I don’t recall seeing them in a game with this much on the line prior to now. Just makes me feel like “mons is mons” may come up with the historically stronger player prevailing. Won’t pretend to be super in touch with PU trends or playstyles as all I’ve done in this metagame is test, not build or analyze too much, but I think Nat will pull it out, 60/40.
 
10/17- Foxes cooked harder than i expected

SV OU: Vert vs SoulWind
SV UU: lax vs @ustFranco
SV PU: Trichotomy vs Nat

i dont even get who picked which tier but im sending this
 
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