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What Pokemon should be in the Winds and Waves regional Pokédex? A study

Hello all! In a follow up to my recent thread on Pokemon usage by main characters in main series games I thought I’d share something else that I worked on. This is a study into what Pokemon ‘deserve’ to be in the Winds and Waves regional Pokédex the most based primarily on how often they were used in the Switch era with a bit of thrown in historical data as well. I invented a kind of mathematic ‘formula’ for working out who was the most deserving which I’ll lay out below.

Methodology

The basic premise for my scoring system is this: higher number, least deserving. But how are the numbers calculated? I’ll list the score for each regional Pokédex and then breakdown how I determined each score.

  • Lumiose Pokédex - 3
  • Hyperspace Pokédex - 1.5
  • Paldea Pokédex - 5
  • Kitakami and Blueberry Pokedex - 2.5
  • Galar Pokédex - 3
  • Isle of Armor and Crown Tundra Pokédex - 1.5
  • Hisui Pokédex - 1.5
  • Sinnoh Pokédex (BDSP) - 1
  • National Pokédex (BDSP) - 0.5
  • Kanto Pokédex (LGPE) - 1
The Paldea Pokédex has the highest value. It’s the previous main series game (I know that the Legends games are also main series but they’re not main series in the same sense that Scarlet and Violet and Winds and Waves are). In an ideal world all Pokemon that were in the previous Gens regional Pokédex should receive the lowest priority for the next gens and the value should reflect that. Pokemon that are in a DLC Pokédex (SV, PLZA or SWSH) are worth half the value of their original games. The Lumiose Pokédex and the Galar Pokédex are both worth 3. I think this accurately captures their presence in the Switch era. PLZA are more recent but SwSh sold more than double the copies and I’m again trying to give the main series ‘generations’ games a higher level of importance. The Hisui Pokédex is worth half the value of the Lumiose Pokédex due to recency and then the Sinnoh and Kanto Pokédexes are both worth a single point as remakes and older titles. I also included the National Pokédex from BDSP as 0.5 as there are a few Pokemon who make their only Switch appearances here. Pokemon who are in both the main game Pokédex and the DLC Pokédex only receive the score for the main game.

Ok, so that’s how the scores are calculated for the Switch era, but there are also two additional scores from historical games to add too. This first one is a bit complicated but I think it makes sense. Each Pokemon not in either the Paldea or Galar Pokédex (not including DLCs) receives -1 for every Generation since their last appearance (remakes and Legends games DO NOT count). For example, Unown hasn’t been in a regional Pokédex since Gen IV so it gets -4 to its total. The second is simply counting the total amount of generations where the Pokemon appears in the regional Pokedex and adding it to it to the total. Pokemon only in third versions (Platinum, BW2, USUM) get 0.5 for that gen instead of 1.

Hopefully things are making sense so far. As a further example, here is how the calculation works when looking at a particular Pokemon. For this instance, we’ll use Raichu.

Raichu is present in the Paldea Pokédex, the Lumiose Pokédex, the Galar Pokédex, the Hisui Pokédex, the Sinnoh Pokédex and the Kanto Pokédex. It has also featured in the regional Pokedex in 8 generations.

That makes its score 5+3+3+1.5+1+1+8 giving it a final total of 22.5.

For an example at the other end of the spectrum let’s look at Purugly.

Purugly is not in S/V, PLZA or SwSh. It is in the Hisui and Sinnoh Pokédexes. The last time is it was in the main generational games regional Pokédex was Gen 4. It has only ever appeared in 1 generations regional Pokédex.

That makes its score 1.5+1-4+1 giving it a total of -0.5.

Findings

Kanto

Something to bare in mind as I start with Kanto is that I separated out regional forms and non-regional forms into two separate entries and did not count either for games in which there were only transferable and not obtainable in the wild. Hence Rapidash does not count as being in Sword and Shield and Galarian Slowbro does not count as being in Scarlet and Violet. Additionally Alolan forms were only awarded 0.5 for being in LGPE.

The top spots for Kanto are:

Alolan Raticate - 0.5
Raticate - 1
Alolan Persian - 2
Alolan Marowak - 2
Weezing - 2

Discounting regionals the top 5 is:

Raticate - 1
Weezing - 2
Rapidash - 2.5
Farfetch'd - 3
Omastar & Kabutops - 3

Pretty clear pattern here of Pokemon who got regional forms having their Kantonian forms underused. Raticate and Weezing haven't featured in a regional Dex since B2W2. The Nidos just miss out on the top 5 with a score of 4, as does Fearow.

The bottom few are as expected Gyarados, Raichu, Gengar and the Eeveelutions. Gyarados and Raichu have only missed one generation (Gen V) scoring a whopping 22.5 each.

Johto

The top spots for Johto are:

Unown - 0.5
Ledian - 2.5
Furret - 3
Magcargo, Corsola and Milank - 4

Unown the obvious one here, and a hard Pokemon to bring back due to the lore and general uselessness. PLA and BDSP saved it from real obscurity but it hasn't been in a regional dex since Gen IV. Ledian and Corsola's only Switch appearance were in the BDSP post-game while Magcargo and Furret only made it into the S/V DLC.

Bottom few for Johto were Umbreon, Espeon, Heracross, Tyranitar and Sudowoodo.

Hoenn

Probably the most interesting Gen as it has been the most neglected by GameFreak during the Switch era and generally throughout the history of the series.

The top spots for Hoenn are:

Linoone, Beautifly, Dustox and Swellow - 0.5
Delcatty - 1
Walrein, Exploud, Castform, Huntail and Gorebyss - 2

A lot of low scorers here. A lot of early game Hoenn Pokemon haven't been seen much for a long while and aren't in many dexes. The Wurmple line hasn't been seen since Sinnoh, while Linoone, Delcatty and Exploud have been absence since Kalos. Walrein is only in the Hoenn Dex and the B2W2 Unova Dex but it pushed up a bit by PLA and SwSh DLC.

The bottom few for Hoenn are Glalie, Gardevoir, Pelipper (hasn't missed a gen since it was introduced!), Whiscash and Sableye.

Sinnoh

This whole Gen is skewed a bit by Legends: Arceus but there are still a few Pokemon that haven't been seen in a core main series game in a while.

The top few for Sinnoh are:

Purugly - 0.5
Tangrowth - 1.5
Biberal, Wormadam, Mothim and Chatot - 2.5
Carnivine - 3

Purugly is the standout here. Hasn't been in a dex since Platinum and it's only Switch appearances are PLA and BDSP. Desperately needs a bit of attention. Tangrowth's last Dex was B2W2 while the rest haven't made it in since Kalos.

The bottom spots for Gen IV are Lucario (duh), Glaceon, Leafeon, Abomasnow and Hippowdon.

Unova

I hadn't realise until I made this but Sword and Shield are to Unova what Kalos is to Kanto. Like half the Dex is in Galar, it's crazy.

The top spots for Unova are:

Darmanitan - -2
Bouffalant - -0.5
Zebstrika and Leavanny - 0.5
Stoutland, Hisuian Lilligant, Carracosta, Archeops, Hisuian Zoroark, Swanna and Hisuian Braviary - 2.5

The top 4 haven't been in a regional dex outside of Unova with Unovan Darmanitan being uncatchable in the wild on the Switch. Bouffalant's only Switch appearance was the SwSh DLC while Zebstrika and Leavanny are only in the SV DLC.

The bottom spots for Unova are Krookodile, Bisharp, Basculin and Hydreigon.

Kalos

Another Gen that is thrown of by a Legends game but still a fair few Pokemon that haven't appeared in a regional dex since Kalos.

The top spots for Kalos are:

Furfrou - 3.5
Hisuian Goodra - 4
Hisuian Avalugg - 4
Tyrantrum - 5
Aurorus - 5

There is also a huge amount of Pokemon on 8 who are basically all the Kalos Pokemon that weren't in SV. Not much to say here besides Furfrou should be in Winds and Waves.

Bottoms spots are Noivern, Goodra, Sylveon, Hawlucha and Avalugg. Goodra and Sylveon have been in every regional Dex since introduction while Hawlucha and Noivern only missed base Sun and Moon.

Alola

Once we get to these later gens there really isn't much between the Pokemon due to the small amount of possible games but there is still a couple of Alola Pokemon that have received less attention than the others.

The top spots for Alola are:

Toucannon - 2.5
Minior - 2.5
Comfey - 4

And then a whole bunch of Pokemon that weren't only in base Sword and Shield on 5.

These three all skipped the Galar and Paldea dexes but Comfey was in both DLCs. Minior and Toucannon only made it into the SV DLC.

The bottom spots are split between the 6 Pokemon than have been in Alola, Galar and Paldea - Mudsdale, Mimikyu, Tsareena, Salazzle, Oranguru and Passimian.

Galar and Hisui

I grouped these together but like Alola there isn't much between the entire Pokédex.

Top spots go for Galar go to:

Wyrdeer, Ursaluna, Bloodmoon Ursaluna and Sneasler - 2.5
Orbeetle, Eldegoss, Dubwool, Boltund, Centiskorch, Obstagoon, Cursola, Dracozolt, Dracovish, Arctozolt and Arctovish - 4

This is basically just divided between the PLA Pokemon that weren't in SV DLC or PLZA DLC and the Galar Pokemon that weren't in SV at all or PLZA at all.

Bottom spots are Falinks (been in all games since release bar PLA), Indeedee, Toxtricity and Corviknight.

Paldea

Going to be honest, I didn't even bother doing Paldea. Simple rule is 'was it also in the PLZA DLC?'. If yes, it can skip Winds and Waves if not, then I guess it can be in Winds and Waves. Obviously DLC only Pokemon like Poltchageist and Hydrapple get priority.

If you've made it this far, thanks for reading. I tried my best to make the data as readable as possible. This project took up a fair few hours of my life. Let me know what Pokemon you think should be in the Winds and Waves Regional Dex, and which ones should miss out too. If there is anything you think I should have done differently with the methodology let me know and I'll see if I can tweaked it.

I haven’t accounted for the Pokemon already shown to be in WiWa in the reveal trailer as I created this dataset before it came out so congratulations to Ledian and Swellow for coming in from the cold! Pelipper, I hate to see you again.

TL;DR: free Purugly, Raticate, Walrein, Unown, Darmanitan and Bouffalant.

Gyarados, Lucario, Hippowdon, Pelipper, Bisharp, Hawlucha, we need some space. It's not you, it's me.
 
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First of all, this is great work and probably the kind of thread I enjoy most of all on here. Ages back I idly created a document with some concepts for new Pokemon if I were ever to direct a game and eventually started trying to create a ~400-sized regional dex and it's SO difficult.

It'll be especially fun to revisit once the games are actually out because I find it really interesting trying to intuit the decisions the game's developers made in terms of decisions like this. There's some interesting stats here so I'll throw in some reflections:

Johto

The top spots for Johto are:

Unown - 0.5
Ledian - 2.5
Furret - 3
Magmar, Corsola and Milank - 4

Unown the obvious one here, and a hard Pokemon to bring back due to the lore and general uselessness. PLA and BDSP saved it from real obscurity but it hasn't been in a regional dex since Gen IV. Ledian and Corsola's only Switch appearance were in the BDSP post-game while Magcargo and Furret only made it into the S/V DLC.

Bottom few for Johto were Umbreon, Espeon, Heracross, Tyranitar and Sudowoodo.

No major surprises here. Furret despite being one of the better regional rodents (imo) has historically been quite neglected, justice for the cute ferret. Magcargo has faded into obscurity over the years (it's funny to think that it was catchable in all seven of the Gen III titles). It's... actually quite odd that Miltank isn't in Paldea at all while Tauros is. Counterpart species usually follow each other. Ledian was probably most unexpected one to me since it was part of Kalos and Alola's regional listings so I naturally assumed it was somewhere in Galar and Paldea - weird.


Hoenn

Probably the most interesting Gen as it has been the most neglected by GameFreak during the Switch era and generally throughout the history of the series.

The top spots for Hoenn are:

Linoone, Beautifly, Dustox and Swellow - 0.5
Delcatty - 1
Walrein, Exploud, Castform, Huntail and Gorebyss - 2

A lot of low scorers here. A lot of early game Hoenn Pokemon haven't been seen much for a long while and aren't in many dexes. The Wurmple line hasn't been seen since Sinnoh, while Linoone, Delcatty and Exploud have been absence since Kalos. Walrein is only in the Hoenn Dex and the B2W2 Unova Dex but it pushed up a bit by PLA and SwSh DLC.

The bottom few for Hoenn are Glalie, Gardevoir, Pelipper (hasn't missed a gen since it was introduced!), Whiscash and Sableye.

I said this on another thread a while back, but I don't think Hoenn's roster has aged particularly well in comparison to other gens, which poses a bit of difficulty in trying to include them in later generations. Delcatty, like Purugly, has been crowded out by Meowth's near-constant inclusion in recent games while Whismur, Castform, and Clamperl are all in the same boat: too much competition for Normals and Waters elsewhere so they rarely make it into a regional dex. Castform had a fairly good showing in Alola though and comes a bit earlier relative to Hoenn and Unova where it's not obtainable until you're five badges in.

I was actually surprised Volbeat and Illumise didn't make the top spots but totally forgot they were in Kitakami's dex. Walrein is a real surprise, I would have expected it to be a lot more ubiquitous but after checking it's not in Gen IX at all and isn't even part of any of the Kalos dex listings.


Sinnoh

This whole Gen is skewed a bit by Legends: Arceus but there are still a few Pokemon that haven't been seen in a core main series game in a while.

The top few for Sinnoh are:

Purugly - 0.5
Tangrowth - 1.5
Biberal, Wormadam, Mothim and Chatot - 2.5
Carnivine - 3

Purugly is the standout here. Hasn't been in a dex since Platinum and it's only Switch appearances are PLA and BDSP. Desperately needs a bit of attention. Tangrowth's last Dex was B2W2 while the rest haven't made it in since Kalos.

The bottom spots for Gen IV are Lucario (duh), Glaceon, Leafeon, Abomasnow and Hippowdon.

Honestly justice for Burmy, one of the cooler bugs that's just been flat-out ignored since Sinnoh. Chatot I guess got shoved out of the limelight since it was a gimmick Pokemon whose gimmick no longer exists. Poor Carnivine too is overshadowed by Grass-types that can evolve.

Also sorry, of all things for most frequent Pokemon, HIPPOWDON?! Lucario, sure, Eeveelutions, sure, Abomasnow, sure... but Hippowdon? Not Garchomp? Rotom? Staraptor? Luxray? Lopunny? ...Hippowdon. Hm.

Unova

I hadn't realise until I made this but Sword and Shield are to Unova what Kalos is to Kanto. Like half the Dex is in Galar, it's crazy.

The top spots for Unova are:

Darmanitan - -2
Bouffalant - -0.5
Zebstrika and Leavanny - 0.5
Stoutland, Hisuian Lilligant, Carracosta, Archeops, Hisuian Zoroark, Swanna and Hisuian Braviary - 2.5

The top 4 haven't been in a regional dex outside of Unova with Unovan Darmanitan being uncatchable in the wild on the Switch. Bouffalant's only Switch appearance was the SwSh DLC while Zebstrika and Leavanny are only in the SV DLC.

The bottom spots for Unova are Krookodile, Bisharp, Basculin and Hydreigon.

Genuinely unsure what the reluctance is to put Blitzle/Zebstrika elsewhere. I think they're neat. Albeit I did not find Blitzle remotely fun to raise given how weak it is vs how late it evolves. If ever a line was in need of a middle stage...

Kalos

Another Gen that is thrown of by a Legends game but still a fair few Pokemon that haven't appeared in a regional dex since Kalos.

The top spots for Kalos are:

Furfrou - 3.5
Hisuian Goodra - 4
Hisuian Avalugg - 4
Tyrantrum - 5
Aurorus - 5

There is also a huge amount of Pokemon on 8 who are basically all the Kalos Pokemon that weren't in SV. Not much to say here besides Furfrou should be in Winds and Waves.

Bottoms spots are Noivern, Goodra, Sylveon, Hawlucha and Avalugg. Goodra and Sylveon have been in every regional Dex since introduction while Hawlucha and Noivern only missed base Sun and Moon.

All of the Kalos entries make sense, Furfrou is a pain to include in games since you have to include the hair change mechanic (why bother) and I've always gotten the sense that Tyrantrum/Aurorus are less popular than the other fossils (I personally love them both though)

Alola

Once we get to these later gens there really isn't much between the Pokemon due to the small amount of possible games but there is still a couple of Alola Pokemon that have received less attention than the others.

The top spots for Alola are:

Toucannon - 2.5
Minior - 2.5
Comfey - 4

And then a whole bunch of Pokemon that weren't only in base Sword and Shield on 5.

These three all skipped the Galar and Paldea dexes but Comfey was in both DLCs. Minior and Toucannon only made it into the SV DLC.

The bottom spots are split between the 6 Pokemon than have been in Alola, Galar and Paldea - Mudsdale, Mimikyu, Tsareena, Salazzle, Oranguru and Passimian.

Minior is an annoying Pokemon to include since the games emphasise that it's a Pokemon not commonly seen outside of Alola ("Places where Minior fall from the night sky are few and far between, with Alola being one of the precious few" - US dex entry). Obviously that's not something that needs to be rigorously adhered to, but its only other location in the games has been in a location explicitly dedicated to housing rare/protected species so it seems like it is. Even Pokemon Go had to incorporate it in a singular fashion.

If you've made it this far, thanks for reading. I tried my best to make the data as readable as possible. This project took up a fair few hours of my life. Let me know what Pokemon you think should be in the Winds and Waves Regional Dex, and which ones should miss out too. If there is anything you think I should have done differently with the methodology let me know and I'll see if I can tweaked it.

My scattershot inclusions, by gen (I haven't been picking over the trailers so some of these may be confirmed):

I: Pikachu. Okay, that one's a gimme. Serious answer: Venonat (yes it was in Paldea's dex, but I love it), the Nidorans (not in a regional dex since Kalos), Grimer (if only because I want the story of its potential extinction to be taken further), Lapras (seems very likely tbh)

II:
Furret (for the reasons stated above), Ledian (and again - also this one is SCREAMING OUT for a regional form), Shuckle (old favourite, and suited to an archipelago region), Slugma (I can't help but root for the underdog), Octillery (banger of a mon tbh), Kingdra (likewise), Raikou, Entei, and Suicune (yeah why the fuck not)

III: Swellow (old favourite, and you mentioned this one is confirmed), Masquerain (best Hoenn bug), Whismur (let's give it some love), Torkoal (curveball choice in such a water-heavy region, but there'll probably be a volcano), Aggron (it's just cool), Tropius (it's been included in loads of regional dexes for seemingly no reason and why stop now), Clamperl (well, Huntail and Gorebyss really - BW and USUM had them spawn in the wild)

IV: Burmy (see above), Lumineon (but only if it gets Quiver Dance)

V: Zebstrika. Pretty much just that

VI: Pangoro (it's cool), Malamar (it's cool), Barbaracle (it's cool), Aurorus (it's pretty)

VII: Oricorio (one of the coolest birds), Bruxish (why not), Kommo-o (very likely)

VIII: I could care less/fewer about most of the Gen VIII species but, uh, Appletun

IX: Archaludon, for the lols
 
I think Walrein really struggles to find a place in other regional dexes because of how most regions are arranged. The Ice area is always lategame, which means it rarely overlaps with the midgame focus on water traversal. If you're wanting earlier access to a Water/Ice mon, Cloyster fits better into the temperate and tropical oceans of the later regions and Lapras is more famous. Seel similarly doesn't seem to show up much. WiWa is unlikely to help that much for this.
 
While it didn't make your top 3, I think special attention should be brought to Spinda
While it has had some surprising pre-Switch regional dex appearances considering it's a terrible single staged Normal type (Kalos and Alola; didn't even have to wait for USUM!) it's in one Switch game and it's post-game (swarm, even) of the remake and because of ILCA's fuck up it can't even leave the game.

And because of that until RS re-releases hit, it will be *impossible* to have Spinda in Home for national dex purposes outside of trading with people who already had it once Bank shuts down. It's one of those Pokemon I feel should be earmarked for WiWa if I was gamefreak.
 
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Hoenn

Probably the most interesting Gen as it has been the most neglected by GameFreak during the Switch era and generally throughout the history of the series.

The top spots for Hoenn are:

Linoone, Beautifly, Dustox and Swellow - 0.5
Delcatty - 1
Walrein, Exploud, Castform, Huntail and Gorebyss - 2

A lot of low scorers here. A lot of early game Hoenn Pokemon haven't been seen much for a long while and aren't in many dexes. The Wurmple line hasn't been seen since Sinnoh, while Linoone, Delcatty and Exploud have been absence since Kalos. Walrein is only in the Hoenn Dex and the B2W2 Unova Dex but it pushed up a bit by PLA and SwSh DLC.

The bottom few for Hoenn are Glalie, Gardevoir, Pelipper (hasn't missed a gen since it was introduced!), Whiscash and Sableye.

Alola


Once we get to these later gens there really isn't much between the Pokemon due to the small amount of possible games but there is still a couple of Alola Pokemon that have received less attention than the others.

The top spots for Alola are:

Toucannon - 2.5
Minior - 2.5
Comfey - 4

And then a whole bunch of Pokemon that weren't only in base Sword and Shield on 5.

These three all skipped the Galar and Paldea dexes but Comfey was in both DLCs. Minior and Toucannon only made it into the SV DLC.

The bottom spots are split between the 6 Pokemon than have been in Alola, Galar and Paldea - Mudsdale, Mimikyu, Tsareena, Salazzle, Oranguru and Passimian.
I think Hoenn and Alola mons are particularly likely inclusions, since both of those are the previous tropical regions. A Hoenn mon is going to naturally feel right at home in a Pacific Islands-inspired region, without any need for a regional form.

(Unfortunately, I also see no chance of skipping Wingull this gen.)
 
First of all, this is great work and probably the kind of thread I enjoy most of all on here. Ages back I idly created a document with some concepts for new Pokemon if I were ever to direct a game and eventually started trying to create a ~400-sized regional dex and it's SO difficult.

It'll be especially fun to revisit once the games are actually out because I find it really interesting trying to intuit the decisions the game's developers made in terms of decisions like this. There's some interesting stats here so I'll throw in some reflections:



No major surprises here. Furret despite being one of the better regional rodents (imo) has historically been quite neglected, justice for the cute ferret. Magcargo has faded into obscurity over the years (it's funny to think that it was catchable in all seven of the Gen III titles). It's... actually quite odd that Miltank isn't in Paldea at all while Tauros is. Counterpart species usually follow each other. Ledian was probably most unexpected one to me since it was part of Kalos and Alola's regional listings so I naturally assumed it was somewhere in Galar and Paldea - weird.




I said this on another thread a while back, but I don't think Hoenn's roster has aged particularly well in comparison to other gens, which poses a bit of difficulty in trying to include them in later generations. Delcatty, like Purugly, has been crowded out by Meowth's near-constant inclusion in recent games while Whismur, Castform, and Clamperl are all in the same boat: too much competition for Normals and Waters elsewhere so they rarely make it into a regional dex. Castform had a fairly good showing in Alola though and comes a bit earlier relative to Hoenn and Unova where it's not obtainable until you're five badges in.

I was actually surprised Volbeat and Illumise didn't make the top spots but totally forgot they were in Kitakami's dex. Walrein is a real surprise, I would have expected it to be a lot more ubiquitous but after checking it's not in Gen IX at all and isn't even part of any of the Kalos dex listings.




Honestly justice for Burmy, one of the cooler bugs that's just been flat-out ignored since Sinnoh. Chatot I guess got shoved out of the limelight since it was a gimmick Pokemon whose gimmick no longer exists. Poor Carnivine too is overshadowed by Grass-types that can evolve.

Also sorry, of all things for most frequent Pokemon, HIPPOWDON?! Lucario, sure, Eeveelutions, sure, Abomasnow, sure... but Hippowdon? Not Garchomp? Rotom? Staraptor? Luxray? Lopunny? ...Hippowdon. Hm.



Genuinely unsure what the reluctance is to put Blitzle/Zebstrika elsewhere. I think they're neat. Albeit I did not find Blitzle remotely fun to raise given how weak it is vs how late it evolves. If ever a line was in need of a middle stage...



All of the Kalos entries make sense, Furfrou is a pain to include in games since you have to include the hair change mechanic (why bother) and I've always gotten the sense that Tyrantrum/Aurorus are less popular than the other fossils (I personally love them both though)



Minior is an annoying Pokemon to include since the games emphasise that it's a Pokemon not commonly seen outside of Alola ("Places where Minior fall from the night sky are few and far between, with Alola being one of the precious few" - US dex entry). Obviously that's not something that needs to be rigorously adhered to, but its only other location in the games has been in a location explicitly dedicated to housing rare/protected species so it seems like it is. Even Pokemon Go had to incorporate it in a singular fashion.



My scattershot inclusions, by gen (I haven't been picking over the trailers so some of these may be confirmed):

I: Pikachu. Okay, that one's a gimme. Serious answer: Venonat (yes it was in Paldea's dex, but I love it), the Nidorans (not in a regional dex since Kalos), Grimer (if only because I want the story of its potential extinction to be taken further), Lapras (seems very likely tbh)

II: Furret (for the reasons stated above), Ledian (and again - also this one is SCREAMING OUT for a regional form), Shuckle (old favourite, and suited to an archipelago region), Slugma (I can't help but root for the underdog), Octillery (banger of a mon tbh), Kingdra (likewise), Raikou, Entei, and Suicune (yeah why the fuck not)

III: Swellow (old favourite, and you mentioned this one is confirmed), Masquerain (best Hoenn bug), Whismur (let's give it some love), Torkoal (curveball choice in such a water-heavy region, but there'll probably be a volcano), Aggron (it's just cool), Tropius (it's been included in loads of regional dexes for seemingly no reason and why stop now), Clamperl (well, Huntail and Gorebyss really - BW and USUM had them spawn in the wild)

IV: Burmy (see above), Lumineon (but only if it gets Quiver Dance)

V: Zebstrika. Pretty much just that

VI: Pangoro (it's cool), Malamar (it's cool), Barbaracle (it's cool), Aurorus (it's pretty)

VII: Oricorio (one of the coolest birds), Bruxish (why not), Kommo-o (very likely)

VIII: I could care less/fewer about most of the Gen VIII species but, uh, Appletun

IX: Archaludon, for the lols
Thanks for the kind words, and glad you enjoyed the post! I think I might try and put together a little ‘dream regional dex’ for Winds and Waves at some point. Probably with 350~ Pokemon in it to leave room for the new guys.

Hippowdon probably gets a big consistency boost because it has sandstream, I suppose?
I think so, GameFreak seem to like using the same weather setters a lot. Torkoal, Pelipper and Abomansnow massively benefit from this too.

I think Walrein really struggles to find a place in other regional dexes because of how most regions are arranged. The Ice area is always lategame, which means it rarely overlaps with the midgame focus on water traversal. If you're wanting earlier access to a Water/Ice mon, Cloyster fits better into the temperate and tropical oceans of the later regions and Lapras is more famous. Seel similarly doesn't seem to show up much. WiWa is unlikely to help that much for this.
This is true, but also highlights the weirdness of GameFreak making an entire route in Galar with an icy water theme and then including neither of the seal Pokemon in the regional Dex! I do think Spheal works outside of ice area though, it didn’t feel out of place in the Cobalt Coastlands in PLA for example.

While it didn't make your top 3, I think special attention should be brought to Spinda
While it has had some surprising pre-Switch regional dex appearances considering it's a terrible single staged Normal type (Kalos and Alola; didn't even have to wait for USUM!) it's in one Switch game and it's post-game (swarm, even) of the remake and because of ILCA's fuck up it can't even leave the game.

And because of that until RS re-releases hit, it will be *impossible* to have Spinda in Home for national dex purposes outside of trading with people who already had it once Bank shuts down. It's one of those Pokemon I feel should be earmarked for WiWa if I was gamefreak.
I just checked my spreadsheet and Spinda was just behind the ones that I included with a score of 2.5 (along with Armaldo and Cradily)! Being in the Kalos and Alola dexes, like you say, just bumped it up.

I think Hoenn and Alola mons are particularly likely inclusions, since both of those are the previous tropical regions. A Hoenn mon is going to naturally feel right at home in a Pacific Islands-inspired region, without any need for a regional form.

(Unfortunately, I also see no chance of skipping Wingull this gen.)
Wingull is unfortunately already confirmed via the trailer. It and Pelipper are on the longest streak without missing a Gen out of any Pokemon.
 
I think Walrein really struggles to find a place in other regional dexes because of how most regions are arranged. The Ice area is always lategame, which means it rarely overlaps with the midgame focus on water traversal. If you're wanting earlier access to a Water/Ice mon, Cloyster fits better into the temperate and tropical oceans of the later regions and Lapras is more famous. Seel similarly doesn't seem to show up much. WiWa is unlikely to help that much for this.
In addition, so many regions for the past decade have been tropical regions. Meanwhile the entire Walrein line (and Seel) is one that lives specifically in Cold Waters almost exclusively, and not on Cold Mountains. Really the closest is Shoal Cave but only in the deepest part that floods half the time.
If Walrein reappears again then we’d need an island surrounded by or filled in part with cold water.
Wingull is unfortunately already confirmed via the trailer. It and Pelipper are on the longest streak without missing a Gen out of any Pokemon.
Weather setter privilege in a Shell bell. Because of how popular and important to the meta weather is Gamefreak can’t just bring in a single weather setter and leave out the others. If one returns then 5 more are to follow, and Tyranitar is dang near everywhere because it’s also a Pseudo
 
In addition, so many regions for the past decade have been tropical regions. Meanwhile the entire Walrein line (and Seel) is one that lives specifically in Cold Waters almost exclusively, and not on Cold Mountains. Really the closest is Shoal Cave but only in the deepest part that floods half the time.
If Walrein reappears again then we’d need an island surrounded by or filled in part with cold water.

Weather setter privilege in a Shell bell. Because of how popular and important to the meta weather is Gamefreak can’t just bring in a single weather setter and leave out the others. If one returns then 5 more are to follow, and Tyranitar is dang near everywhere because it’s also a Pseudo
Poor Politoed is also a weather setter and has only made it into one of the last three gens pre-DLC. Somehow been overlooked for Pelipper every time. Gen X could definitely do with a new setter for each weather just to freshen things up, and I’m pretty confident they will introduce new ones given the theme of the games.
 
Poor Politoed is also a weather setter and has only made it into one of the last three gens pre-DLC. Somehow been overlooked for Pelipper every time. Gen X could definitely do with a new setter for each weather just to freshen things up, and I’m pretty confident they will introduce new ones given the theme of the games.
If I had to guess it's because Politoed's Drizzle is a hidden ability, Pelipper's is just a standard ability.


I also assume that being a 4-stage line rather than a 2-stage line might be a factor. They definitely design dexes around reaching a certain number in a given game, so little things like that seem like they could tip the scales when it comes to decisions.
 
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