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It depends on what audience you are addressing. Smogonites for the entirety of Smogon but Smogoners for a smaller number of people, say 1 to 10 or so. There isn't really a criteria to determine when to cut it off so I had to use a somewhat arbitrary number.
If you were giving a speech to all of Smogon you might say something like "Greetings, all of my fellow Smogonites" but if you were just talking about 1 or 2 you might say something like "I met up with a Smogoner IRL the other day" Another way to take it is that Smogonites is more formal while Smogoner is more casual and personal.
It could well be the opposite and there isnt a fixed boundary as your supposition has implied. The inevitability of my win should be clear to you by now.
Obviously, there is no official hard-and-fast rule for it and it mostly comes down to personal preference. However, from my observations I can ascertain that the general rules that I have outlined in my earlier argument are indeed the most commonly used and accepted ones.
Your premature claim of the victory in this debate is inappropriate considering you have only posed this question to me, you have not chosen your own side of the argument nor have you offered any of your own arguments to support it.
Fime, your arguments are not completely invalid due to the eloquent nature of your post explaining your arbitrary limita which normal social protocol would describe as a "tl;dr", but my supposition(as you have failed to understand) is that there exists not a singular standardized format but is infact in the preference of the speaker.
By not stating your side of the argument from the beginning and only implying it, you have broken the rules of the debate. As such, I have won by default.
Even so, despite there being no official rules, the fact that one unofficial rule is followed by almost 100% of people, it is established as a social norm. This is apparent to anyone who looks beyond the literal meanings and uses simple human judgment.
Finally, the idea that you have won is meaningless as the winner of debate is decided by an audience vote. Vote for me everyone!!