Contributive mainstay col49 back at it with piercing commentary (these look cool and I've been rather impressed by the development of newer or otherwise slightly below radar players in the tours leading up to this, and thought it would be neat to try to follow it a bit more avidly and provide what little commentary I can here). Hope to have enough info made public to try to catch a couple of these live!
1. eifo vs 16.
Feliburn - I see both players at a similar median of play, with Feliburn for better or worse having a higher ceiling undercut by instinct-based plays that reflect a routine of stunting on the ladder (for the fans, of course). eifo has, by contrast, never struck me as a player with any inclination for flashy plays, but his self-sufficiency in the builder is a stand-out to me; from what I've observed at least, there seems to be no readily identifiable alt source to his past gen teams, which in an environment where basically 0 'modern' RU players are willing to invest time into BW is striking to me. This, coupled with a workman-like drive in preparation is to me what will (if anything) push him above and beyond in this matchup, which I see as coming down to the SM in most cases. Feliburn's play in ORAS feels more nuanced to me, whereas the BW from both has felt very much like going through the motions, at which point the advantage boils down to prep. Hoping to see Feliburn make use of Fire resists and no Chip Away Snorlaxes, as this is liable to be a cool series.
2.
esche vs 15. Randomnick - An entirely unfettered esche is, to me, one of the most difficult players to prep for. Perhaps in saying this I am moreso projecting my own building deficiencies, but going into a tour game with something mercurially solid and moderately paced was my best assessment two Snake Drafts back and I feel that very little has changed in that now. Bearing all this is mind, Randomnick has struck me as a player with a good eye for teams and an adaptive attitude going into games that I like a lot. My rough guess for all this would be that Randomnick takes ORAS (where, love or hate the tier, is where free spirited builders go to have their dreams crushed by well-executed, tried-and-true balances), while esche pulls it out in the remaining two. BW looks to be the point of contention here, I would slightly favour esche mostly on the basis that he brings something no-nonsense.
3.
Xiri vs 14. Spl4sh - Admittedly, I observed Xiri's circuit success circa 2018 or so with a healthy skepticism, primarily because I did not much care for his team selection anywhere I could claim tier literacy. That said, I could hardly begrudge him his success throughout, and have since been able to confidently group him with users like Pohjis and peak Kushalos in the pantheon of tour collectors, as he's expected nothing shy of a workmanlike ability to churn out wins in environments such as this. Spl4sh, I have observed either in offhand games or what replays haven't been privated, strikes me very much as one of many hailing from that Eternal Spirit-esque school of thought; belying 'proper' risk v reward assessments with seemingly more instinct-based, aggressive predictions to rattle the opponent and carrying that momentum to a win. Clearly, not only by his admittance here but also by the present success of so many of that ilk, this is a valid enough approach to the game, but it has historically felt like a poor match-up with players such as Xiri, to leave well enough alone the perceived gap in tournament play. While I can't in good conscious favour Spl4sh in any singular game as it stands, I do feel every game here is contested ground to some extent.
4.
Bouff vs 13. Real FV13 - The deciding factor in this game will be entirely in the mental, as strangely this is a matchup of what I feel to be very similar players. Both Bouff and FV are off similar playing ability imo, functioning more as a jack of all trades than any kind of specialist in one tier (making it hard to identify who takes what here), picking teams slightly left of centre either from a bin or occasionally their own works in team selection, and oftentimes failing to see the forest for the trees in-game, playing turn-per-turn without taking a step back to assess what sequences need to be followed in order to ensure a win with the best odds possible. To that end, I am favouring Bouff in a way that perhaps interjects a smidge of personal bias, knowing him better and being able to evaluate his pre-game as solid and his recent win in the SM Cup telegraphing a better control of his nerves at this time, but really this to me seems like the most up-in-the-air of these series.
5. Bebo vs 12.
Luthier - I think both players have made great strides in a short amount of time, but for my money Luthier is favoured here; not only has his stock rose with an increased number of gg's in losses, but I feel his games of late have reflected more targeted aggressive play that is channeled towards a greater longterm goal. While Bebo has progressed in his building (or simply what he selects to bring to games) and maintains a greater familiarity with the tier at large, I can't help but feel there are still yet unpolished aspects to his play, particularly in longer sequences (ex: the earlier turns to
this game of SM RU Cup v.Bouff, wherein a no-win sequence against a revealed Ice Beam + Refresh Milotic is taken with Gastrodon, only to bemoan the basically inevitable freeze). Fundamentally, I do think Bebo absolutely has the tools to take this set, but to do so might require some restraint when it comes to what I interpret as very ladder grinder-esque plays, which speaking from experience can be a major to-do. My broader expectations are that Bebo takes BW while Luthier ekes it out in ORAS / SM.
Addendum 1: I have been informed that the game referenced here was played under the influence of alcohol. I apologize for misleading the reader, and would like to clarify that in spite of this revelation, this standard of play seems to remain consistent in a sobered state. Ergo, no changes will be made to the player favoured.
6.
Pohjis vs 11. Raichy - Another game of two similar types of players, and while I like Raichy, Pohjis is
the Circuit farmer. If I were to sift through this subforum and find the finals to the latest ADV LC Ubers Cup, Pohjis would be in it if not won the thing. Moreover, RU has always been kind to Pohjis (with the exception of an SPL we choose to ignore), as it tends to befit his playstyle and he remains buddy-buddy with some of the better builders in these tiers, namely Kushalos and Rabbit. To not give him the nod here feels unfair, though Raichy is surely a competitor, albeit not one particularly native to RU. I see ORAS as basically a lock for Pohjis, and while he is still favored in either BW or SM, Kush's BW building lacks the finesse of his ORAS and Pohjis has a habit of loading up basically the worst Rabbit teams for SM at times, and upsets have come from less. Looking forward to it regardless.
7. Cam vs 10.
EviGaro - I'm willing to admit I had to do some research for the next two, as while I've certainly seen Cam's name show up before, I could make no real connection to tier, play, anything really. Doing some modicum of research left me reasonably impressed with the baseline talent displayed over a wide variety of tiers, and while there's always room for polish I found his ability to pick something up and run with it admirable. Be that as it may, a constant in what I observed with this was a bit too much of a willingness to let the opponent set the pace of the game, perhaps deriving from a lack of hands-on experience with each particular tier, and I do think Evi is rather good at punishing such players when they're on their A game. I will have to side with the community at large here as much as I do love me a good underdog, and to that end I do still very much feel Cam can upset if his time messing with these tiers has allowed him to grasp some of the nuances of it all, as I do retain the feeling that Evi is very much tilt-prone. Odd as it may sound, I see a scenario wherein Cam takes ORAS early and rides the momentum out on this one, but really my only desire of this set personally is to see a full three games.
8.
Yggdrasil60 vs 9. Averardo - Going to go against the grain here for a minute, bear with me. Averardo has gotten pretty dang good since the Snake Draft debut, being largely self-sufficient, and his play isn't flashy but it gets the job done. I respect the tenure and he deserves to be here for sure. Bearing that all in mind, in doing my diligence as a prediction maker, I've come to realize I like how Yggdrasil plays a lot lol; there's proactivity exhibited in his switching, conditioning and calculated risks taken well, lots of little things that put him ahead of the curve to me. My biggest qualms with him lie in the builder, which lends itself to shortcomings that don't quite reveal themselves until actually applied, and from what I can tell 0 observable ORAS experience. For my money, Averardo is an above-average builder that should be favoured in ORAS purely off what information (or lack thereof) is offered at this time, with a perfectly reasonable chance to take SM to boot. Be that as it may, I'm perfectly content to root for Yggdrasil here, as I think he is perfectly capable of taking this from what I've seen, hardly befitting a clean sweep of predictions against him.
