Team Preview
For our first game of the tour we have Mola BO v standardish HO. Starting with Cyclonez, Primal Groudon is most likely the Stealth Rocker, but beyond that it can be a lot of things. It is probably defensive, but one of the great things about Alomomola is how it enables Primal Groudon to run more offensive varients of defensive sets on teams that would not otherwise be able to fit them. Giratina-O should be a special set to handle Coil Zygarde, but physical is probably usable here to help a bit against DD. Mola is mixed as this team is not nearly weak enough to Zacian-C nor specially bulky to justify it. Marshadow is CB and Zacian-C is most likely Play Rough, though imo Zacian-C doesn't really fit well on Mola structures and this team is no exception. Cyclonez is quite lucky AM opted to not load stall as this team has an incredibly rough time against it.
AM's team is well not standard Deoxys-S HO, but not far from it. All of the sets are fairly evident, though what AM decided to opt for in certain moveslots will make a big difference. For example, Mega Salamence is DD, but the possibility of Facade makes Alomomola cautious about throwing out a Toxic. The big thing is whether Arceus-Ground has Healing Wish if it is a DD set. Recover is rare on HO and Taunt, whilst good, doesn't help much here. Imo the best Ky-B set is Tera Fairy Sub BoltBeam, but I don't know how many people are a fan of that.
Matchup [55-45 Cyclonez]
The matchup score is based on the assumption that this is the Ky-B set in the last section despite this not being the case, otherwise it'd be 90-10 or something. Although I'm not a fan of Zacian-C on Cyclonez's team, this is a matchup that you're very happy it came along. However, the biggest threat is the CB Marshadow which really enjoys seeing Arceus-Ground over Ekiller. Furthermore, the only issue Marshadow is going to have is a Ky-B behind a sub given it OHKOes Ultra Necrozma and Tera Ghost Shadow Sneak picks off everything else from a reasonable amount of health. Alomomola also appreciates Arceus-Ground over Ekiller as its Flip Turns will actually do meaningful damage and it is a good candidate to sac to Tectonic Rage if needed. Surprisingly, Primal Groudon is the least useful teammate here. It can set Stealth Rocks if needed, but its HP doesn't matter too much as long as it is kept healthy enough for Ky-B.
I wouldn't be surprised if AM had an audible groan when they saw what was staring them down. Immediately after they looked to heavens and prayed that Giratina-O is Tera Poison instead of Tera Steel. Tera Steel is harder to fit on Alomomola structures, but it definitely can be used on this team. If it is Tera Steel this is GG at preview. Primal Groudon Probably has Heat Crash to break through Ho-Oh for Arceus-Ground in case things go south with Ky-B. It is going to be incredibly difficult, if not impossible for AM to position their mons in a way that they can KO something without immediately being revenged by Shadow Sneak. If there is a way to win it probably involves Ky-B forcing a tera and Mence + Primal Groudon finding a way.
Game
NDFL opens up with an Alo lead against Deoxys-S. This is a good lead from Cyclonez to break a Focus Sash and scout for a Rocky Helmet as it Flip Turns out to Marshadow which limits Deoxys-S to just Stealth Rock. Mence comes in and AM doubles to Arceus-Ground and catches Primal Groudon. Giratina-O would be the better play here imo given that at some point Primal Groudon is likely to be tasked with facing down a +1 Ky-B, so its switchins are limited. Nothing immediately threatens the Giratina-O outside of Kyurem-B and Mola can heal it up on most of this team if needed. Primal Groudon is scared out as Earthquake does a decent chunk to Alomomola which Flip Turns on Taunt and gets a crit. The crit does suck, but Taunting there means that Arceus-Ground is likely going to find itself revenged by Marshadow before it can break this cycle.
Speaking of, it comes in and has a free Poltergeist and AM opts to sacrifice Mence. I don't calc much when writing these, but I did for this and Arceus-Ground should be out of Poltergeist range (tops out at 63.1%) so it is worth taking the only chance that Arceus-Ground is ever going to do something this game. Marshadow is likely to Tera Ghost at some point, but if it doesn't now the game becomes immensely easier.
Ky-B comes in and gets a free DD as Primal Groudon switches in and reveals Rock Tomb which is just another layer to this shit sandwich of a matchup for AM. Primal Groudon switches in to absorb the Spectral Thief and is then switches out as Marshadow Tera Ghosts and knocks out Ky-B. Necrozma-DM comes in and scares out Marshadow and Photon Geysers into Arceus-Dark. Not that it makes a difference at this point, but I think you DD there. Primal Groudon comes in as Cyclonez decides to Taunt. It then decides to trade most of its HP to ensure that Primal Groudon isn't doing anything. Arceus-Dark's Judgment puts Arceus-Ground in Shadow Sneak range as it goes down to +1 Earthquake. Cyclonez_ decides to let Giratina-O out of its ball instead of letting Marshadow get all 6 KOs and that is the ballgame.
Additional Thoughts
I caught some of this game live and didn't quite realize how much Marshadow deletes AM's team at the time. I'm sure that will leave an impression going forward. I don't know if AM has played this tier before, but starting a tournament off with an nearly unwinnable matchup is tough. I'm sure as AM eases into the tier things will start to tick. They're a good player and we've seen other good players go through much worse growing pains in NDPL.
As mentioned earlier, I'm really not a fan of Zacian-C on Cyclonez's team even if it had a good matchup. It didn't enter the field so no harm no foul. CB Marshadow struggles at best into stall and Zacian-C has a rough go of it. The other four (assuming Primal Groudon is overheat) are decent into stall, but with something like wallbreaker Eternatus you still have that fast very hard to switch into mon and Marshadow can Tera Ghost against Arceus-Fairy. Eternatus + CM Arceus-Dark can break through stall, but on its own Arceus-Dark is going to have a very tough time v Chansey + Ho-Oh.
Team Preview
These teams are at least unique. Rei has loaded one of the wierder looking balances I've seen. You can drop Primal Groudon on balance if you really want to, but it locks you into a very limited amount of structures that nearly always feature Ferrothorn + Eternatus + some other soft Primal Kyogre check and this team does not have an Eternatus. Can't say I'm a fan of this team because it has a very rough time against far too many threats. The real wild cards are the fourth move on Arceus-Ground which could be anything, but its hard to imagine much else other than Tera Water Taunt Toxic because of the degree to which this team gets absolutely mauled by defensive Primal Kyogre. Mega Diancie has a dozen good moves it can run, but three of them on this team are likely to be Stealth Rock, Diamond Storm, and Moonblast with the fourth being anyones guess. Marshadow should be CB, but given the rest of the team who knows. The same applies to Ho-Oh and Primal Kyogre. CC Zacian-C is a huge issue so it could be that, but the team would really appreciate offensive Ho-Oh. Defensive Primal Kyogre feels like it makes a bit more sense here given this team is very anxious around defensive Primal Groudon until Rock Tomb or Overheat is revealed and it at least gives one switchin to that.
Dahness' team looks to be standardish except for the Calyrex-I. All of these are mons you expect to see on HO, just not all of them together. I'll be very surprised if Calyrex-I isn't OTR and Marshadow is likely Bulk Up. I want to say Zacian-C is CC because way too many mons are going to want to have access to tera that it will become inconsistent to the point of being a hindrance. Especially OTR Caly-I which is the type of mon that requires tera to do anything in most games and still often doesn't. It will be interesting to see if Marshadow is the Adamant Tera Stellar set that has been popular on the ladder recently.
Matchup [75-25 for Dahness]
When you decide to load Deoxys-S HO the last thing you want to see on the other side of the field is Mega Diancie. However, once you get past that the matchup actually looks pretty favourable for Dahness as their Marshadow threatens everything heavily and is likely going to be a Shadow Sneak speed tie away from sweeping at some point. Similarly, if Arceus-Ground or Eternatus can force Ho-Oh to tera things look quite bleak for Rei as it is the main thing stopping it Zacian-C from running roughshed on this team or vice versa. Caly-I shouldn't be doing shit and tbh looks like a great lead as it can force the Primal Kyogre in and the Glacial Lance damage can reveal whether it is offensive or defensive. It feels as though the game will already be won or lost by the time it comes out so may as well lead with it since the game should be able to won reasonably easily without entry hazards as Zacian-C + Marshadow + Eternatus threaten too much.
Rei can win this, but it will be difficult. It will involve carefully managing sacs and doing their best to prevent Zacian-C from getting an SD. It depends a lot on the sets, but Marshadow + Primal Kyogre (if defensive) seem like they can find a way.
Game
The game starts off with Mega Diancie v Eternatus. Rei was always going to lead Mega Diancie, but I'm not the biggest fan of Eternatus given the possibility of Earth Power and it can play a key role later on in forcing Ho-Oh to tera for the to help Zacian-C. For this reason Arceus-Ground is probably the best lead or Calyrex-I as mentioned above. It goes for a Meteor Beam right off the riff as Diancie stays in base forme and trades half its HP for Stealth Rock. If Ho-Oh is offensive this does put Zacian-C in range of Sacred Fire, but otherwise I'm not sure this is the play. Ho-Oh comes in and eats a Sludge Bomb and is poisoned which will make regenerating enough HP to handle Zacian-C near impossible.
Dahness then goes for a Fire Blast to attempt to catch a Ferrothorn switch and gets phased. However, I think Dynamax Cannon is the play. The Sludge Bomb damage revealed Ho-Oh is defensive so the worst that can happen is a Brave Bird. There is a low roll to KO with Dynamax Cannon and poison will finish it off anyways so there isn't any downside. If Diancie comes in so what? It is at half health and would be a sac anyways.
Marshadow is dragged in and Diancie is sacced. Marshadow then trades itself for half of Primal Kyogre's HP, revealing it is defensive. It then Scalds as Deoxys-S comes in to set up rocks as Rei takes an opportunity for Ho-Oh to regen, but Pyscho Boost comes out. It is nice to see the rarer, but still good moves come out. It then succumbs to its burn and Eternatus comes out. Rei again opts to try and Regen some health on Ho-Oh. This time I'm not a fan of the move this time around. Ho-Oh is at 16% and Poisoned, it is very hard to imagine it finding the switchins it needs to be healthy enough to take on Zacian-C at this point. Whirlwind would prevent what is about happen as Eternatus Meteor Beams and takes out Primal Kyogre. Additionally, Marshadow now can't come in because it drops to +1 Dynamax Cannon and Eternatus isn't it Sneak range.
However, Rei reveals Arceus-Ground to be Dragon Dance as it trades most of its health and kos Eternatus. Calyrex-Ice comes in to revenge but dies to a very unfortunate crit while Zacian-C comes in to revenge the Caly-I and is revenged itself by Marshadow. Dahness' own Arceus-Ground kills the Marshadow before dying to Ferrothorn and that is the game.
Additional Thoughts
Rei's DD Arceus-Ground came in clutch and did what it does against offense, as did Marshadow. I'll stand by this game being very winnable for Dahness. Leading Zacian-C and Clicking SD or even Blade -> Wild Charge if Ho-Oh comes in. It seems incredibly likely to me that Arceus-Ground + Eternatus + Marshadow would finish things off from there. Even if Arceus-Ground comes in Zacian-C is very likely to live Tectonic Rage after Stealth Rock and OHKOes with +3 CC. Congrats to Rei for finding a way to win a very tough matchup.
Team Preview
Apparently I had an impact on Banana loading sample stall due to the predicts. I'm not 100% sure what he thought I meant, but I was talking about the teams that are 6-0d by LO Yveltal. Either way we have stall v a balance that doesn't have Arceus. Primal Groudon is defensive or utility SD. I'd like to say that Ho-Oh is offensive and Zygarde is DD, but looking at this team I have a gut feeling they're both defensive. Kyogre could be either but defensive works better here. CM Arceus-Dark works best here, but if Zygarde is DD Defensive is somewhat justifiable.
Matchup [depends on sets]
This is going to be focused on Plznostep's team as Banana's is known. So can it break stall? Yes, but it depends on the sets. Primal Groudon needs to be Overheat and Kyogre probably needs to be defensive. Ditto is great. CM Arceus Dark + Primal Kyogre is great v stall, though the faster Taunt from Arceus-Dark is very much appreciated.
Game
This one is definitely going to be longer than the other two. We start off with Giratina v Primal Groudon which switches out to let Ho-Oh absorb the Toxic. Maybe Zygarde would be better here as it doesn't let in Eternatus which Toxics Primal Groudon switching in. It then scares out Eternatus to lay a Spike as Giratina comes in to Defog. Ditto can find an opportunity to heal, but having Primal Groudon at 82% on Turn 5 with literally zero progress made is not a good start. Plznostep then makes a good double to get Primal Kyogre in on Arceus-Dark and Origin Pulse reveals that it is very much offensive as it takes a Foul Play and Chansey switches in on the follow up Origin Pulse. I think that this was a time for the double to Yveltal as Arceus-Dark is definitely being preserved here given how important rocks are to limit Yveltal.
After some more switching and Primal Groudon being whittled down to 64% Arceus-Dark finds itself in front of Eternatus and allows it to get Toxic'd as it reveals itself to be defensive by setting up Stealth Rock. Assuming this is Tera Poison I'm not sure why it wasn't used unless Ditto is Tera Ghost and that is being saved. Yveltal doesn't need it and having a Toxic Spikes absorber that can also set up Stealth Rock while preserving progress with Taunt sounds pretty great v stall. Ho-Oh then comes into Defog and it will win this war, but keeping the Toxic Spike and attempting to phase in Primal Kyogre or Ditto seems like a safer move.
Another double and we find Primal Kyogre in front of Eternatus which is scared out. I'm not so sure why as landing a Toxic on Primal Kyogre is really going to narrow any window Plznostep has to break and Eternatus can always heal on Arceus-Dark or Ho-Oh later. Chansey comes in and in what is a massive blunder Zygarde is sent in on the Softboiled instead of Ditto to heal everyone and give Plsnostep a chance. Not that it matters because this is against stall, but Zygarde subs revealing itself to be offensive as Ho-Oh comes in and phases it out and brings in Primal Kyogre which brings in Chansey.
Finally we see Ditto come in v Chansey...and it takes a toss and switches out for some reason? Finally on Turn 39 we see a Calm Mind as Primal Kyogre forces in Chansey. If this had been done previously things may be looking slightly different. Eventually Plznostep forfeits on Turn 79.
Additional Thoughts
Plznostep definitely had the tools to win this. Sure things got off to a rocky start, but Ditto was not utilized in the slightest. I'll be rooting for Plznostep often going forward because flittle is awesome, but this game looks like they need to put in more time acclimating to the tier. Banana is a friend and I'm happy to see him and look forward to what he brings next week v Cyclonez.
Team Preview
Sami has a fairly standard Alomomola balance, but most mons could be a couple of different sets. Either Arceus-Fairy or Primal Groudon is the rocker while the other is likely setup though this could be a hazard stacking team. Either Wallbreaker Eternatus or Choice Specs makes the most sense here. Ditto is Ditto. I seem to be alone in my disdain for physical Tina-O so maybe it is, but special works better here.
Mirror seems to have taken inspiration from the random ass Arceus on balance. My gut tells me this is some DD Normalium Z stuff but it could be standard Ekiller. Defensive Primal Groudon and Solgz DD Necrozma-DM seem most likely given how weak this team is to LO Yveltal (usually why CM Arceus-Dark or Arceus-Fairy is in this spot). Zygarde should probably be defensive given this is a mono Ho-Oh plus weak to Low Kick team, but DD can work. Yveltal is likely either Scarf for speed control or LO Sucker.
Matchup [idk]
A lot of this comes down to the sets. DD Zygarde and LO Yveltal are massive threats to Sami's Team and DD Necrozma-DM can be annoying, but is dissuaded by Ditto. Managing to land a Toxic on Alomomola instead of burning it with Ho-Oh will also open up this game quite a bit. On Sami's end if the Eternatus is offensive it is going to be a huge threat, especially if Choice Specs. If Eternatus is defensive, Yveltal is opened up and probably 6-0s if it is Tera Flying.
Again, it really depends on the sets. If Sami can remove Necrozma-DM early, Arceus-Fairy opens up a lot especially if it is CM. Mola teams, especially one with Ditto do not tend to have issues with Ho-Oh. For Sami it will be a game of positioning.
Game
We start off with Sami's Primal Groudon against Mirror's Ho-Oh. Mirror switches out to Zygarde to scout for coverage as Stealth Rock are set and then Alomomola comes in and gets Glared and Primal Groudon comes in to nullify Alomomola's Flip Turn. I think Toxic was the play here and Sami agrees and Toxics Mirror's Primal Groudon as it sets rocks. It then gets the Flip Turn right as Ho-Oh comes in and is scared out as Zygarde absorbs a Stone Edge. A double switch doesn't reveal an item on Necrozma-DM suggesting it is indeed likely Solg Z. However it ends up knocking Alomomola's boots. Knock isn't really seen on DD Necrozma-DM and although I see the point, I don't on this team.
Anyways Sami Flip Turns to Ditto so at least he knows what move was dropped for it. Sami switches back to Alo to absorb Knock Off and Mirror DDs on the flip turn into Primal Groudon. Zygarde switches in and leftover leave it just out of range of transforming and a double goes Mirror's way as Yveltal is in v Alo and reveals Substitute. After the game Emoxu9 messaged me and said it was for stall. We didn't discuss it past that, but it is beyond me how it is better than Taunt or Knock Off. Anyways Arceus-Fairy comes in and reveals itself to be Calm Mind which brings in Necrozma-DM which reveals Moonlight.
Unless it is EQ last it isn't getting past Primal Groudon and Sami knows the set so he uses this opportunity to pass a Wish as Primal Groudon reveals SD as an incoming Zygarde is sent scurrying into Yveltal. We repeat the same cycle again and Mirror punishes a Greedy SD and down goes Primal Groudon. A few turns later Ho-Oh switches into Giratina-O which reveals itself to be physical. Ho-Oh then uses this opportunity to Defog and things have gone from smooth sailing for Sami to choppy waters.
A few cycles later Eternatus enters the field for the first time and leftovers reveal it is a defensive set. Finally on Turn 58 Toxic Spikes are set against a resting Zygarde. Sami switches to Arceus-Fairy and Taunts but gets greedy and tries to set up Calm Minds and is punished with a Glare on the second one. I'm not sure why this was done. Zygarde is only at +1 and can easily be stalled out of Thousand Arrows and letting Arceus-Fairy getting para'd seems like asking for the yellow magic to strike against this Substitute Yveltal. This also lets Zygarde get a second Coil and down goes Arceus-Fairy. Eternatus comes in and forces a Rest, but Zygarde burns both turns of sleep as Giratina-O comes in and phases it which brings in Arceus. Zygarde Glares Giratina-O and it is hard to imagine at this point anyway Sami can claw it back. A bunch of stuff happens and the 6-0 eventually comes.
Addtional Comments
We see the opposite of the previous game where aggression cost Sami a very easy win against what is frankly a bad and cheesy team. I am really not a fan of Toxic Spikes Eternatus on this team as Mola teams really want some fast, immediately powerful mon that deals hard with the midspeed mons. Specs can even fit Toxic Spikes on it if you really want that. Ditto does that v HO, but it does not work nearly as well against balance teams without support. I hope Sami finds a good middleground going forward. As for Mirrors team, if you're going to fish v stall Tera Poison works and Tera Flying is still good and absolutely shits on teams like this. Emoxu9 happened to get back to literally 2 minutes before I was going to post this and said that Mirror just really wanted to use ekiller and thought Marshadow was weak. The former is whatever, the latter is baffling, especially when you bring a team that gets deleted by CB Marshadow.
Refined Regigigases (1) vs Porto Alegre Poliwhirls (9) 
SeismiSaucers (6) vs Brexit Bibarels (4) 
Demon Psycho Deoxys (4) vs Pokerich Clique (6) 
The Sceptile Syndicate (5) vs Kingly Kyurems (5) 
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