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Welcome to Smogon! Take a moment to read the Introduction to Smogon for a run-down on everything Smogon, and make sure you take some time to read the global rules.
After 2+ months of several hours of Pokémoning, we get to the part everyone has been waiting for. First of all, I'd like to thank our hosts, sheet owner Ticken, and our players that made this tournament run as smoothly as it did. I'd also like to thank Blazenix and Evilo42 for taking up the art for these playoffs and flawlessly killing it.
From now on, the sixteen top competitors will now fight for their crack at the pink trophy! Congratulations to each of you for your success and good luck in the playoffs!
If winning the prestigious pink trophy isn't motivation enough for you to win the playoffs, we are also offering a number of prizes this season. For starters, $150 will be spread across the top two finishers in the playoffs: the winner will get $100, while the runner-up gets $50. In addition, the champion will also get their choice of a PS! custom avatar or inactive PS! account.
If you are unfamiliar with Smogon Tour's format, from this round forward each pairing will face off in a best of three series in the SV, SS and SM tiers. The higher seed picks the first tier that will be played and the loser of the first game picking the following tier. Win 2 out of 3 and you are one step closer to being crowned the winner as you advance.
Supplemental material: Smogon users sorted by individual top 16s, 2023-2026 (2022-2026 in brackets):
SoulWind: 10 (15)
Star: 9 (14)
Giannis Antetokommo-o: 9 (12)
MichaelderBeste2: 8 (11)
Storm Zone: 6 (7)
JustFranco: 6 (6)
Santu: 6 (6)
Empo: 5 (7)
xavgb: 5 (6)
crying: 5 (6)
Supplemental material: Smogon users sorted by teamtour winrate, 2023-2026, minimum 25 gp
Empo (22-5, 81.48%)
Don Eduardo (20-7, 74.07%)
mind gaming (45-18, 71.43%)
xavgb (36-16, 69.23%)
Santu (55-25, 68.75%)
zS (43-21, 67.19%)
Attribute (43-22, 66.15%)
Nat (29-15, 65.91%)
Gtcha (19-10, 65.52%)
hellom (30-16, 65.22%)
These are technically predicts but don't count on me offering any actual insight into who's favoured in any of these matches or why. Mostly just a smattering of whatever info I have saved up to share about these players. Before I start, congrats to MemphisDepay, Kasp, and Laroxyl on their first career individual playoff.
1. egalvanc vs 16. hellom
Back in like November I gave myself five predictions for the winner of every 2026 tour, restricted to players who had never won an individual trophy at that point. hellom's the only one of my STour picks remaining. I would be remiss, however, if I didn't point out that this is a historically noteworthy matchup between players with pretty bad playoff records. How bad? Well, they're currently 0-7 in the top 16 of individual playoffs, and that's guaranteed to become 1-8. If egalvanc loses, they'll become one of two players with a -5 win differential in individual top 16s, which is second-worst of any player on the site (ahead of only Tace and their 1-7 record at this stage). Note that this is entirely from STour; egalvanc has qualified for this tour 5 times, good for 17th all-time. A hellom loss, meanwhile, would leave them 0-4, which would also be second-worst, except this time tied with gorgie, Laurel, RedEmption, Tamahome, and Star.
8. Ox the Fox vs 9. JustFranco
Fun matchup; only the Giannis-Fusien set has more combined prior individual playoffs than this one. Though Franco's been really good over the last few years and I had them as an early Slam favourite this year, I think Ox has just been stronger in these tiers. In another matchup I think you could wonder whether the rough SPL or the solid livetours are a better indication of JustFranco's SV OU chops, but either way I think Ox has the edge in SS and SM.
4. kDCA vs 13. Santu
There are very few players I'm taking over kDCA in SV OU right now, and they've had respectable performances in the others tiers both here and in Masters (they beat JustFranco and Ash KetchumGamer there). Unfortunately, the list of players I'd pick over Santu in either an STour or a Masters set is somewhere from 0-2, and Empo's not here.
5. Laroxyl vs 12. crying
While, like JustFranco, I believe in crying more in Slam, I'm not yet sure what to make of Laroxyl in these tiers. Am curious to see more.
2. Storm Zone vs 15. NoName6293
Rematch of an absolute beatdown in WCOP. That said, Storm Zone should be better in this combination of tiers and I'd guess will be able to stay more in his comfort zone rather than trying to pilot an ORAS stall. Storm Zone's quietly second on the site in individual playoffs since the start of 2023 if you exclude Slam and OSDT (it goes Giannis with 8, Storm, SoulWind, and Santu with 6, and then Star/MDB/Empo/ima with 5). Might be underrated outside of SV and looking for revenge after a disappointing showing against SoulWind last year. In the absolute best-case scenario, they can tie Ojama and Tesung for 47th in the Hall of Fame by the end of the month. Note that NoName still has a long way to go to become the most accomplished Indian player in teamtours (I believe that's Nido-Rus? Three playoffs and one trophy? At least among players that have ever formally represented India at any level).
7. MichaelderBeste2 vs 10. Kasp
Since SV started, I think you'd have a tough time arguing that anyone but Empo has been the best player on the site. 5 playoffs, two trophies, north of 80% in teamtours. After that? SoulWind and Star have the most deep runs in individuals, but no individual trophies and a mixed teamtour bag. Giannis has been better in individuals (similar volume and one win) but worse in teamtours. To me, it's between Santu and MDB, and while Santu's for sure been stronger of late, let's not forget what Michael's done. Quick comparison:
Player A (2014-2016): 2 trophy wins, 3 finals, 4 semifinals, 6 top 16s, 21-16 on the sheet
Player B (2023-2025): 3 trophy wins, 3 finals, 3 semifinals, 4 quarterfinals, 7 top 16s, 33-29 on the sheet
Player B is MDB, player A is peak Tesung. Maybe this is a hot take, but I think Michael is a top-10 player in Smogon history at this point and he should be above both Ciele and Tesung.
3. Giannis Antetokommo-o vs 14. Fusien
With this tournament, Giannis has passed Ojama for sole possession of 7th on the Smogon all-time playoff leaderboard, behind only SoulWind, Star, Empo, McMeghan, ABR, and Malekith. More than anything, I am cheering for Giannis in hopes that one day they have nothing more to prove in individuals and they'll try out an SPL or SCL run. Super exciting to see Fusien here, and being the heavy favourite in SV does help, but I'm just not sure. Probably the most exciting first round match in my opinion, though.
6. We Three Kings vs 11. MemphisDepay
Going for the upset here; MemphisDepay is a defending SS circuit finalist and likely stronger in SV. That said, going into this tournament We Three Kings was 4/5 in the first round of individuals. That one loss was to Empo two years ago. That's also the only playoff they've made in like five years, though. I just think MemphisDepay has more to prove here after sustaining a fair bit of mockery over the last few weeks.
8. Ox the Fox vs 16. hellom
Why am I predicting hellom, then? Feels to me like last year's run to the first seed applied a lot of pressure, and Giannis is just far more experienced in these tiers and in these settings. The expectations are more relaxed this time around, and I'm not forgetting that last year hellom showed that they can perform in these tiers at a high level. Buying low, maybe.
12. crying vs 13. Santu
Copy and paste everything that I said about them earlier.
2. Storm Zone vs 7. MichaelderBeste2
My gut is telling me to go with Storm. My brain is telling me that beating MDB in both SS and SM while defending SV sounds really hard.
3. Giannis Antetokommo-o vs 11. MemphisDepay
The gap is too great here, I think.
13. Santu vs 16. hellom
I don't think Santu's going to repeat and my predictions would look really good if hellom ends up winning this tournament. At the same time, I really do have a tough time seeing anyone beating Santu. It's not easy to qualify here when you're mostly playing one tour a week
3. Giannis Antetokommo-o vs 7. MichaelderBeste2
If this happens I think I'm taking Giannis in SS and SM, but every one of these games would be close. Both of them have qualified for this tournament 6 times now, same with Santu.
3. Giannis Antetokommo-o vs 13. Santu
Predicting a rematch of last year, because I honestly have a tough time seeing either of them losing to anyone else. Plus, rematches are hype. Giannis has qualified here three times in the last five years, along with three straight Masters top 16s. Santu, meanwhile, has qualified for this tournament four years in a row despite it not including his best tier. Juggernauts. I will not believe that anyone's going to repeat a win in back-to-back years until they prove it, and Giannis is due. Spectators win here.
idk who to root for.. way too many cool players, excited to see how playoffs go! one of you guys go get it MichaelderBeste2Santuhellom
1. egalvanc vs 16. hellom
qualifying first is obviously a great achievement, yet I trust in hellom's general skill
8. Ox the Fox vs 9. JustFranco
really not sure on this one but I'm a fan of most stuff Franco usually brings
4. kDCA vs 13. Santu
insane mu, dca had a great qualification phase, pulling santu in the first round is tough
5. Laroxyl vs 12. crying
could really go both ways, I like both players but I'd prefer to see cryings gimmicky playstyle succeed
2. Storm Zone vs 15. NoName6293
also don't have a clear favorite here.. could see storm winning SV, NoName winning SM and having a cool SS game to decide the series..
7. MichaelderBeste2 vs 10. Kasp
even tho Kasp's achievements for his very short time on the site are impressive I'm pretty certain Michael will take it
3. Giannis Antetokommo-o vs 14. Fusien
could be my favorite R1 series, Fusien can definitely win but I feel like Giannis just has a finals ticket already
I'm going for MDB cuz that's the only name I recognize here. But after watching the amazing cinematic battles to be expected here, that will certainly change. I'll probably root for all of you after that
