OU ADV OU Elo Project

Approved by vapicuno

:rs/claydol:
ADV OU Elo Project

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What is Elo?
Elo is a rating system originally developed for chess by Arpad Elo. Everyone's rating starts at 1000 and your rating increase or decreases depending on if you lose or win. How much rating you win or lose depends on the difference between your rating and your opponent's rating with the winner of the match gaining more Elo the lower they are rated relative to their opponent and vice versa. The maximum amount of rating that can be lost or gained in a single game is determined by the K value, for example if the K value is 20 then a game between two equal opponents will result in a gain and loss of 10 rating for the winner and loser respectively. This sheet uses a K value of 40 for the first thirty games a person plays and then a K value of 20 afterwards. ELO is also a prog rock band.


Why are the ratings so low?
In chess top end ratings reach over 2800, here they only get over 1400. I used the same K values as FIDE so a lot of this just comes down to sample size, only two players have logged over 500 ADV OU tournament games compared to the thousands played by chess professionals. In addition, draws are significantly less common in Pokemon and by extension, top players lose way more games. But also, yea, RNG puts more of limit on how well someone can do over a long period of time compared to chess.


What games are used in this sheet?
In short, every game from an Official Smogon tournament, Circuit tournament, RoA tournament, Invitational tournament, and the main Revival tournaments. This adds up to over 35,000 games from the finals of OST I in 2005 to today.
Official Individual Tournaments
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Official Smogon Tournament (1-3)
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Smogon Tour (1-5, 11-16)
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Smogon Classic & ADV Cup (1-10)
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Smogon Frontier (8)

Official Team Tournaments
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Smogon Premier League (1-16)
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World Cup of Pokemon (2, 9-14)

Other Team Tournaments
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RoA Premier League
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Retro Cup of Pokemon
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ADV Premier League
RoA Team Trial

Invitationals
CALLOUS Invitational
Jimvitational

Circuit Tournaments
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ADV Circuit Playoffs
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ADV Global Championship
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ADV Seasonal
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ADV Majors
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ADV Swiss
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Smogon Championship

Ruins of Alph Individual Tournaments
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RoA Tour
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RoA Olympics
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Victory RoAd
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Indigo Plateau
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Major League RoA
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RoA Ladder Tournament
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RoA Forum Championship
World's Longest Tournament

Other Tournaments
ADV Revival
Rising Stars

If there is anything that you think should be added, let me know


Is this even accurate?
Honestly, I'm not sure. Due to most win posts over the years not including specific details multiple assumptions were made for Best of 3 sets if no information could be determined.

1. If the numbers of games played was not reported, assume a 2-0 victory for the winner
2. If all three games were played but game order cannot be determined, assume winner won games 2 and 3 (this includes 4-game sets with ties)
3. If the set was only partially completed then those games are counted but any activity or gifted wins are not

The underlying reasoning for these assumptions was to always favor the winner when in doubt. Overall though this leads to a significant proportion of the total amount of games having their results assumed on my part or possibly missed altogether. I can only work with what I found which has possibly caused to some players' rating to butterfly away from where they should be. If you can prove the results of a series I have entered incorrectly please let me know.

Also this rating system does have a recency bias. This is largely due to the massive increase in the number of ADV tournament games in the past few years (as in a tournament today can have more games played than entire years in the first half of the 2010s).

Other Stuff
In addition to just the exciting Elo ratings pages there are also other pages dedicated to a multitude (3) of fun things for you to look at. First there is Peak Rating sheet which displays the timeline of the highest rating achieved until today as well as when certain rating milestones where reached. The Top 100 individual ratings achieved are also displayed but you can find every peak rating (and inactive current rating) in the Full Rankings tab.

Also to not have every person's play be boiled down to current and peak rating, there are two tabs dedicated to showing the overall progression of ratings and titles to display player's long term achievement. First, there is the Biannual Rankings which dhows a snapshot of the top 20 active player ratings every January 1st and July 1st. The amount of times someone has appeared in the top 20, 10, 5, 3, and 1 are all tracked. And finally there are the Titles. Similar to chess with its Master titles, this sheet includes four levels of sufficiently corny "Trainer" titles with four levels of achievement based on obtaining and maintaining a rating of a certain level. These titles are displayed elsewhere in the sheet by their corresponding Pokeball next to their names.

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So that's all. If there is anything that you think could be changed, improved, or anything please let me know either here or on discord. Thanks to Dave and Ticken for their support and thanks to anyone who reads this.
 
Uh, I've noticed some people show up twice, notably JoJ at at 615th and Oliveroddish at 38th, also KeyToLife at 49th and secondari at 58th
 
I feel like allowing invitationals (and by extension draft, which are just invites by the captains) skews the results in favor of anyone with alot of games in them (it's notoriously hard to get mus vs these kinds of high elo players outside of these kinds of tours, which means they essentially bubble themselves with elo and can't lose it. It also allows other Gen mains who get invited to ji/ci to never be at risk of ever losing elo because they play vs higher level players only who also have high elo) (this is why circuit tour doesn't allow advpl towards points).

It also would potentially benefit people who got better after a point to just sign up on alts to reset their win loss, if this became a serious thing anyone looked at. A example of this tactics effect that was accidentally displayed is the mistake pointed above with joj/oliveroddish (TO BE CLEAR he didn't intentionally do this tactic, but I mention it as a example of how a manufactured version of this could be used to game the ratings, as this is a perfect example of using only the good tours from a specific player) jumping from 615th to 38th.
 
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I feel like allowing invitationals (and by extension draft, which are just invites by the captains) skews the results in favor of anyone with alot of games in them (it's notoriously hard to get mus vs these kinds of high elo players outside of these kinds of tours, which means they essentially bubble themselves with elo and can't lose it. It also allows other Gen mains who get invited to ji/ci to never be at risk of ever losing elo because they play vs higher level players only who also have high elo) (this is why circuit tour doesn't allow advpl towards points).

It also would potentially benefit people who got better after a point to just sign up on alts to reset their win loss, if this became a serious thing anyone looked at. A example of this tactics effect that was accidentally displayed is the mistake pointed above with joj/oliveroddish (TO BE CLEAR he didn't intentionally do this tactic, but I mention it as a example of how a manufactured version of this could be used to game the ratings, as this is a perfect example of using only the good tours from a specific player) jumping from 615th to 38th.

While I understand what you mean by some players being able to keep high ratings just due to past success, I strongly disagree with not including invitationals. I think going on a deep tournament run against some the toughest competition available should absolutely be reflected in these rankings. People regard players like linear and ABR so highly in large part due to of their invitational performances, to take that away just to stop some people from sitting on high rating on low activity does not seem like a good tradeoff at all to me.

Also the whole alt thing is just a mistake on my end, all players should be represented by only one name. Revival tournaments use discord names opposed to Smogon names like the rest of the tournaments so a few people slipped through the cracks but most longtime players will be correct. If there are any others missing that haven't mentioned already lmk.
 
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