Announcement Arceus-Dragon Suspect - Ubers UU

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:pmd/arceus-dragon: Arceus-Dragon Suspect :pmd/arceus-dragon:

Hi everyone,

Dragonceus has been on the rise since early September where it was realised that it is an astounding Physical sweeper with Dragon Dance or Swords Dance, with one of its very few checks being Landorus-Therian, who could chip it with Rocky Helmet while Taunting it to stop recovery or boosting. Encore Magearna being more common held it back a little bit too, as outrage was punishable by a forced switchout. However, post-shifts, Landorus-Therian has left us and Thunder Wave Magearna is making a comeback, and as such, Dragonceus has been left with very unreliable counterplay, with even bulky 'mons like Toxapex and Bulky Arceus-formes just getting wiped out by the incredibly powerful Outrage it possesses. Revenge Killers like Zacian or Ice Beam Mewtwo are either outrun after a boost or wall victim to Tera Fire & Dragonceus' tremendous bulk, making it an offensive threat that toes the line on being unkillable.

However, some Counterplay still exists. Sets like Tickle Alomomola have seen a rise, along with an increase in paralysis spreaders, can prove obstacles; alongside niche picks like Curse Dondozo. Pokemon like Toxapex are running baneful bunker to counter the contact moves, and Rocky Helmet usage has gone up too, on Pokemon like Great Tusk to force more Recoil onto it, and more tera Fairy has poped up to take advantage of Outrage locking Dragonceus in for its duration. Some desperate people have even resorted to the use of Heatran/Diancie, just to stop it, which are dispatched by it running Earthquake. With it seeing 6.4 from the general playerbase, and 6.3 from the qualified playerbase, we felt like a quickban would not be appropriate, despite the ongoing UMPL.

Suspect information:
  • All games must be played on the Pokémon Showdown! Ubers UU ladder on a new alt with the following format: "UUBAD”. For example, UUBAD Imperial or UUBADatthegame.
  • You have to reach a COIL of 2770 in order to get reqs. For reference, the B-value for this suspect will be 3.
  • Do NOT impersonate other people in your ladder alt, do NOT use any usernames which are offensive, flame-baiting, or targeting specific users, and do NOT use usernames which could be interpreted as breaking any of the username rules on Pokémon Showdown! Failure to abide to this will result in you being barred from voting in this suspect, and potential infractions.
  • Any form of voting manipulation will result in swift and severe punishment. You are more than welcome to state your argument to as many people as you so please, but do not use any kind of underhanded tactics to get a result you desire. Bribery, blackmail, or any other type of tactic used to sway votes will be handled and sanctioned.
  • Do not attempt to cheat the ladder. We will know if you did not actually achieve voting requisites, so don't do it. Harsh sanctions will be applied.
  • The suspect test will last for 14 days, ending on Tuesday, October 29. 23:59 GMT -5
  • There will be 2 suspect tours in the Unofficial Metagames room on Pokemon showdown! on the 19th and 20th of October at 8PM UTC+1 and 1AM UTC+1 respectively, and the winner & runner up will qualify for requirements.

    Tagging dhelmise and Marty to implement on ladder please! thank you.
 
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this dumb ahhh mon needs to be banned

verified - :kyurem-white:
 
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Screenshot 2024-10-15 115821.png

Not too sure what I'm voting as of now. Arc-Dragon is impossible to check viably in the builder, but in game has some more reliable counterplay. It's also possible to out offense it with things like HO if needed. I'm leaning towards ban right now because even with more reliable counterplay than say, TB Fairy NDW, Arc-Dragon forces some really stupid situations and often forces a tera to be dealt with.

a name of all time. verified - :kyurem-white:
 
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verified but 252+ SpA Choice Specs Turboblaze Kyurem-White Fusion Flare vs. 120 HP / 0 SpD Scizor: 1056-1244 (339.5 - 400%) -- guaranteed OHKO - :kyurem-white:
 
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Due to various complications IRL this weekend, I'll be hosting the suspect tours next weekend at the same time. Sorry for the inconvenience.
 
As of writing this, I'm about 90 coil from reqs. I think Arceus-Dragon should be BANNED personally, as it is a huge strain on the builder, and a pain in the ass to play against. It centralizes the metagame around itself in a different way from other Arceus formes, a much more unhealthy way.

Whereas most other physical Arceus Formes are either held back back shit stab options(SD poisonceus for example), Arceus-Dragon's stab Outrage is great, only 2 mons in the entire metagame are fairy types, and neither can eat a flare blitz or threaten it back. Now I know what you're thinking, "can't Magearna just Thunder Wave/Encore it?". It can, but it has to either sac a Mon to Outrage or terastalize in order to safely click Thunder Wave/Encore. +1 Outrage can reliably 1 or 2hko almost the entire metagame, and +2 can OHKO just about anything short of a heavily invested Arc forme.

As an Arceus forme, Arceus-Dragon has immense bulk and a deep movepool, thanks to this, it is incredibly hard to stop it from getting boosts. It can live a ton of hits it has absolutely no business taking, for example, in my w1 game Fc Arceus-Dragon ate a Chien-Pao Icicle Crash( I found out after the game that apparently the Dragonceus wasn't even invested). Obviously Chien-Pao is no longer with us, but it is a great example of what I mean. If a Chien-Pao can't stop an Arceus-Dragon from getting a DD, how is any other Pokemon supposed to?

Arceus-Dragon is a huge strain on the builder, as for the reasons mentioned above, it is difficult to revenge kill and even harder to stop it from boosting, forcing teams to run multiple pokemon that can threaten to end its sweep through status. The main thing most people have opted for is spamming Thunder Wave on 2-3 mons, with hopes of paralyzing Dragceus so that their attackers can outspeed it. The problem with this, is that one of the best Pokemon for these Twave spam structures, Arceus-Poison, forces players to use their Arceus forme to manage Arceus-Dragon, which is definitely not ideal. This is not to say you absolutely have to use Arceus-Poison to check it, other Pokemon like Tickle Alomomola and Toxapex can prevent it from boosting. Some cores can handle it without too much difficulty as well, with a combination of Pokemon like Palafin and a Pokemon that can force Dragonceus to being a more gameplan oriented way of handling it. The problem with all of these though is that they're all pretty big commitments. It isn't as simple to check Arceus-Dragon as it is to check say, Arceus-Dark(just slap a Zacian on), or Arceus-Poison(slap a Giratina, Lando, etc on), which have checks that they generally cannot remove themselves.

In games, Arceus-Dragon finds itself in a unique position in which most all of its checks require a Pokemon to die in order for it to be a proper check. Take the Arceus-Poison set we were just talking about, though it can paralyze Arceus-Dragon, it cannot do so without being 2hkod by Outrage, essentially forcing a sac on the side of the Arceus-Poison player. How about the Palafin example from before? Well if they do end up terastalizing, you're still going to lose the Pokemon meant to bait the Tera, its just not going to sweep you. Beating an Arceus-Dragon is managable, but it will consistently be getting a kill in each game its present in.

also its bullshit I got muted while we were talking about what song to make the suspect.
 
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Tilt made this way longer than it should have been but was way too deep to restart. Arc Drag is an absolute nuisance mon to deal with but is frankly a symptom of a larger issue with the tier (hint hint, Tera making setup arcs incredibly difficult to deal with). The fact it took so long for people to realize the potential of Arceus Dragon makes it possibly the most surprising case in the entire tier, where it has been around since near the beginning and its circumstances very mildly changing until recently. Even with Landorus-Therian around it was borderline. Action should be taken right now but Tera as a whole I hope is looked at next.
 
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Tilt made this way longer than it should have been but was way too deep to restart. Arc Drag is an absolute nuisance mon to deal with but is frankly a symptom of a larger issue with the tier (hint hint, Tera making setup arcs incredibly difficult to deal with). The fact it took so long for people to realize the potential of Arceus Dragon makes it possibly the most surprising case in the entire tier, where it has been around since near the beginning and its circumstances very mildly changing until recently. Even with Landorus-Therian around it was borderline. Action should be taken right now but Tera as a whole I hope is looked at next.
The main reason it became an issue recently even though it has been around a long time is just because it was outclassed by arc fire and then after it got banned lando was just a sturdy check
 
The main reason it became an issue recently even though it has been around a long time is just because it was outclassed by arc fire and then after it got banned lando was just a sturdy check
landorus t was NOT a sturdy check and was very easy to wear down/made it very exploitable as one of the few actual switches, in addition to basically requiring alo to keep it healthy. People were already murmuring about taking action on it BEFORE it was even known that landorus t would rise.

Arc Fire has also been gone for months, over half a year at this point. Ghost only hogged attention for about half a month.
 
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Will be voting do not ban. There’s not much difference Arc Dragon now than where it was a month ago, think this is just a giant overreaction. Another Arc form is just gonna take its place later anyways. There’s answers, both checks and counters, that you can use. I never once lost to an Arc Dragon during reqs run, nor in any tours, it’s quite easy to know what it’s going to do.
 
So instead of actually addressing what I was talking about, you hyperfixated on one specific part that was actually followed up with an example that proves what you're saying here is completely unreasonable. Unless you're trying to argue that Dachsbun, the ZU ranked pokemon, is good in this tier, what you just said here equates to you not actually having a proper list of checks and counters. I'm going to repeat myself, and hopefully not more than once.

Give us a list of proper checks and counters that account for:

- The fact that Arceus-dragon can tera (so checks that rely on burns are out of the question, alongside steel and fairy types). Additionally, things that get OHKO'd or 2HKO'd by tera fire flare blitz are also out of the question.

- Arceus-dragon can not tera (dragon and fire compliment each other defensively extremely well, water and ground types can be played around by not using tera)

- Arceus dragon is a 120-120-120 basestat monster with recovery. Your pokemon not only needs to take hits, but also be able to actually kill it, otherwise you're just going to cheap it down and it's going to recover all of it's health back up.

- Doesn't require you to sacrifice a Pokemon to check it. (Magearna can thunder wave it, but it requires a sacrifice to outrage to achieve it. I don't think you could call Magearna a 'check' to it)

- Is splashable enough to where teams can actually run it

- Doesn't rely on having 2-3 specific pokemon as that would limit your teambuilding into specific cores

I think that all of these requests are reasonable, and if you have any issues with any of my 'subjective reubuttals', please respond with an actual argument that isn't 'I want to win', because genuinely I'm trying to have a discussion here and all you're doing is being toxic for no reason.
 
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In order to help people make informed decisions, I compiled all of the replays in UMPL (high level tour play) that featured Arceus-Dragon (post-Lando-T rise). Swiss hasn't made it to playoffs yet so this is the only examples of high level tour play so far that we have. I have separated into two categories, one where Arc-Dragon was able to win the game, and one where it did not take over the game at all any moreso than other big threats in the metagame:

Arc-Dragon wins category:
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ubersuu-801975 (dodged a twave)
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ubersuu-798286 (ekiller)
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ubersuu-798418 (legit won, took over game)

Arc-Dragon is just part of the game, does not take over category:
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ubersuu-796897
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ubersuu-797886
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ubersuu-798083
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ubersuu-797189
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ubersuu-800641
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ubersuu-800566
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ubersuu-800288
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ubersuu-800862
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ubersuu-799849
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ubersuu-801539

So yeah, if it was truly overbearing, certainly it would have taken over more than 25% of the games it was featured in. It's not overbearing at all, sometimes in pokemon you just have to outplay it with the powerful semi-ubers mons that you have available to you, and it works. It isn't an NDW scenario where sometimes it could just auto win by clicking Tera Fairy Blast. I'm all for having less Arceus forms, but there seems little reason to single out Arceus-Dragon over Poison or Dark, both of which seem to win just as often.

I anticipate it getting banned anyways so who really cares, but I think we should stop overreacting about stuff that's not broken just because we are annoyed by building trying to contain it.
 

In order to help people make even more informed decisions, rather than just throw a bunch of replays that people won't bother to actually watch at them, I'll break down each of these replays and show why not all of them are good reasons to keep Arc-Dragon.

https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ubersuu-796897
End of turn 6
Rudi made a bad play and should've gone to Arceus-Dragon. It takes at most 47% from Chi-Yu (it's timid from the amoutn of damage it did to Terapagos), and could've easily gotten a free DD. From that position, Arc-Dragon is extremely scary to Shiloh's team because it had the potential to OHKO literally everything. The only tough spot would've been vs the opposing arc-dragon since +1 is only a 60~% chance to KO at +1(given they tera) after rocks damage. Forcing it into outrage would've done nothing if Rudi tera fire'd the turn they outraged, because nothing on Shiloh's team can take an outrage that also can OHKO it back.

https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ubersuu-797886
I'll admit yeah Fc's team is pretty well prepared to take on Arceus-Dragon, but also the team in general sucks. The team gets completely blown up by Landorus since its only ground resist gets OHKOd by sludge wave. It also has no phazing either which allowed CM Lugia of all things to blow holes in the team. This isn't a good example of Arceus-Dragon not being broken because Fc's team was good into it at the cost of having pretty bad matchups into a lot of other stuff.

https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ubersuu-798083
This replay is fine for the most part. I would like to say that if Mimikyu had saved tera, from this position Arc-Dragon could have swept the whole team but talking about what iffs in mons is generally not productive.

https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ubersuu-797189
I would like to point out that Career was using Dclaw which really bad on dragonceus. Had it been outrage, Quagsire would not have been able to take on Arc-Dragon and the team would have crumbled unless they had a tera to handle the mon. I don't think this is a good example of Arc-Dragon not being broken, because it was runnning a move that is widely accepted as being sub-optimal.

https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ubersuu-800641
Yea this one is also fine for the most part. Dclaw is ass but outrage wouldn't have helped much bc of tickle + helm mola.

https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ubersuu-800566
I would again like to point out that Career was on something different when he made this team. SD dclaw eq sure is something and I will not be held liable for another one of Career's crack teams. In all seriousness though, yeah no shit Arc-Dragon wasn't broken in this game, cause it wasn't running the broken set. Had it been DD, Entro would've gotten destroyed even more than he already did. After a DD, it OHKOs everything outside of garg, which isn't at all hard to chip down first with something like Zacian. Even if Career locked into outrage, Ghold still gets 2hkoed and can only twave it back. Once twaved, it's not like there are any strong breakers on Entros team that can take advantage and OHKO the arc dragon anyways.

https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ubersuu-800288
This one's fair honestly

https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ubersuu-800862?p2
This one's also fair

https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ubersuu-799849
No shit arc-dragon wasn't overbearing it was fucking dtail

https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9ubersuu-801539
A) mid set
B) suzuya's team is fucking insane
Suzuya has no hazards (except for maybe rocks deoxys which sucks), no reliable CM taunt Arc Dark answer, 0 real water resist, and 0 real fire resist (would have been a very different game if Chi-Yu hadn't missed the fire blast (Mimikyu should've just Overheated in that situation imo)). But the team handles Arceus-Dragon alright. But again, this just goes to show that bringing a team that reliably checks Arc-Dragon is just very very difficult to do in the builder.

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So out of the 10 replays you showed where Arceus-Dragon does not immediately win, only 4 of them are actually valid evidence against an Arc-Dragon ban. That's not even 50%.

I've already yapped a fair amount following each replay so I'll just cut to the chase: I think Arceus-Dragon is banworthy. The standard Tera Fire DD / Outrage / Flare Blitz / Recover set is very difficult to stop if given a single opportunity, and can just run away with games. It's extremely difficult to account for Arceus-Dragon in the teambuilder, as bringing options that reliably deal with Arceus-Dragon often leaves you liable to other threats in the meta. One of the few mainstream methods of checking Arceus-Dragon is physdef tickle Alomomola. However, needing to run that specific set on every team in order to not lose is not healthy in my opinion, and is a sign that Arceus-Dragon is too much for the tier.

As of writing this post, I don't have reqs. I might not get reqs depending on how many gatekeepers show up tomorrow at the room tour. To whoever's reading this, If you read this far and still aren't convinced, idt there's anything more I can really say to convince you. Have a nice day ig ^w^
 
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