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NOC Everchanging Mafia - Game thread - Night 5!

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ye going for Peum is why this is a chainsaw and it's why Bliz is probscum

idt you can build a case on Peum
If you really think that both Bliz and I are possible scum, I’d prefer you vote for me today. I honestly feel like Bliz understood me 100%. I’m not saying he agrees with me or anything like that, I’m just saying I feel like he perfectly understood my Day 1 POV. He’s a great guy.
 
If you really think that both Bliz and I are possible scum, I’d prefer you vote for me today. I honestly feel like Bliz understood me 100%. I’m not saying he agrees with me or anything like that, I’m just saying I feel like he perfectly understood my Day 1 POV. He’s a great guy.
he is a great guy we love Bliz

however, if you are T/S then Bliz is the scum in this scenario I think so it's better to vote him first lol
 
right but if ECat is scum Peum has a nigh on 100% chance of being town, and you put the chances of ECat being scum at 60-70%, so the optimal strategy is to vote out ECat and assess Peum based on the flip

your own probabilities make voting Peum today a bad idea lol
When I wrote out those probabilities I did realize that I should have ECat scummier than Peum, and like I said the main reason I have not switched back is just that I don't want it to be an uncontested lynch lol

That being said I definitely disagree that Peum is ~100% to be town if ECat is scum, I think it's entirely possible that scumchat was like "oh shit ECat is fucked tomorrow" and Peum was trying to get ahead of it
 
If you held a gun to my head I'd say ECat probably has like a 60-70% chance of being scum but if ECat is town then Peum has a 100% chance of being scum.
also wait I just saw the self-logical inconsistency but this is a wild statement actually

this could easily be TvT between ECat and Peum. ECat misplayed, Peum is pointing out the misplay and voting them for it. That's the world, and is arguably the likeliest one lol

Whereas it is true that if ECat's scum Peum has a nigh on 100% chance of being town. But no shot if ECat's town that that tells us really anything about Peum's alignment; if ECat's town Peum would do the same thing as mafia or town here
 
also wait I just saw the self-logical inconsistency but this is a wild statement actually

this could easily be TvT between ECat and Peum. ECat misplayed, Peum is pointing out the misplay and voting them for it. That's the world, and is arguably the likeliest one lol

Whereas it is true that if ECat's scum Peum has a nigh on 100% chance of being town. But no shot if ECat's town that that tells us really anything about Peum's alignment; if ECat's town Peum would do the same thing as mafia or town here
idk man I think it's pretty sus to badger someone out of making a vote, then jump on them the next day claiming that their no vote means 100% mech scum
 
I didn’t understand this
if one of you and Bliz is town and the other is scum, due to Bliz' new posts it's likelier that Bliz is the scum here

as I say, you are very likely to be voted out at some point even if you're not today. that's a good slot for scum to keep in the game, because it gives them an out to push an easy vote in the future when one of themselves is looking likely to be voted out instead
 
I don’t know, I feel like Peum is getting way too involved. I’ve never played a Mafia with him before, so I don’t know if he really tries this hard in every game or if I just got the feeling that he could be Mafia. He made statements assuming that the Mafia was made up of good players. If I had to put my hands in the fire before getting voted out, I’d say Peum / LN / ??? / ??? are Mafia, with one of the unknowns being some other at least moderately experienced player.


That would follow the line that Peum assumes Mafia has experienced players (LN), and also that the first kill was Laurel. Generally, in the very few Mafias I’ve played, Laurel usually opposes LN quite strongly.
 
That being said I definitely disagree that Peum is ~100% to be town if ECat is scum, I think it's entirely possible that scumchat was like "oh shit ECat is fucked tomorrow" and Peum was trying to get ahead of it
but ECat's only fucked tomorrow because Peum tried to force mayor to claim right

that's what I mean by this part
yes Peum could be hellbussing etc. etc. there's 0 motivation for scum to do that in a largely meandering game with little to go off of

and the hellbus would rationally require ECat to buy into it D1 so they could prime the manoeuvre which scum almost never do lol
there's no shot Peum primes a hellbus D1 on ECat and ECat just plays along unless they arrange it between themselves in scumchat first, because ECat doesn't play mafia very often and on a human level is very unlikely to just go "sure I'm coming back for a game after a long break, I would love to die D2 to make you a deepwolf Peum !! :boi:" like this just isn't what happened people aren't gamebots

Peum can't get ahead of it, Peum IS it, y'know. ECat wouldn't be under suspicion if Peum weren't mayorposting on main, I didn't think of it being optimal for mayor to claim until he brought it up myself
 
well ECat would be under light suspicion bc of the wheel but that's hardly game ending, taking some light pushback on the wheel as license to hellbus would be a huge overreaction that I also just on a human level don't think happened lol
 
if one of you and Bliz is town and the other is scum, due to Bliz' new posts it's likelier that Bliz is the scum here

as I say, you are very likely to be voted out at some point even if you're not today. that's a good slot for scum to keep in the game, because it gives them an out to push an easy vote in the future when one of themselves is looking likely to be voted out instead
I think that, reading the messages that were sent before Bliz posted, it doesn’t make much sense to try to pocket me and explain how I might have felt. I mean, there’s a clear tendency to vote me today. Why would he bother trying to “clarify the situation”? I don’t feel like he’s defending me; he’s just casting doubt by explaining how I might have felt.

So I don’t really see the benefit of what he did if he’s Mafia. Right now I’m vulnerable, and if he’s Mafia, he knows it. But not voting me doesn’t seem like it gains him much. If I were Mafia, I’d be pushing the vote onto me.
 
Okay well I guess that does kind of change some things

Peum I think you are overreading that interaction a bit. Ecat voted and then like four people jumped on them calling them a moron. Do you actually think that a townie who doesn't really know what they're doing would hold on in that situation? Because I think a "normal person" trying to play this very intimidating game would react by unvoting and shutting the hell up for the rest of the day.

Otoh, if ECat has actually played mafia like 8 times before, I do think it's fair to call them on doing something that they've been explicitly told is anti-town.

On the OOOOOTHER hand....

I went back to go through D1, and the only posts I could find about mayor claiming were from me, Celever, and (mostly) Peum. I thought this was a huge topic of conversation, but actually I think it was just Peum posting about it a lot. I understand that this was an intentional gambit from Peum to try to catch a scum mayor, I guess? But I actually think it's pretty believable that a town mayor could see those three posts (or even really just miss the ones that aren't Peum) and think "I don't trust this person, they badgered me out of voting, I'm just going to shut up now." If Peum is scum this is a very good gambit for them, because it essentially generates a believable policy reason to vote out someone who will be a very easy mark. The fact that Celever seems to be on board and is seemingly taking all of this as common sense is an association I will look back to if Peum turns out to be scum.

At this point I am more suspicious of Peum than ECat. I am still pretty suspicious of ECat though. But, in the event that ECat flips (which I assume will happen) and they're town (which I think is plausible at least), I would put Peum next personally.

##Vote: Peum
Regardless of who ends up flipping, I really hate any day that ends with a lynch that looks like 7-2-1-1 or something like that. If there aren't two serious contenders for the lynch we learn very little from it. So, I hope someone else will either join me or start ginning up another bandwagon :tymp:
##vote:peum

agree with this post, don’t like voting players who made dumb descisions bc I make tons of dumb descisions
 
I think that, reading the messages that were sent before Bliz posted, it doesn’t make much sense to try to pocket me and explain how I might have felt. I mean, there’s a clear tendency to vote me today. Why would he bother trying to “clarify the situation”? I don’t feel like he’s defending me; he’s just casting doubt by explaining how I might have felt.

So I don’t really see the benefit of what he did if he’s Mafia. Right now I’m vulnerable, and if he’s Mafia, he knows it. But not voting me doesn’t seem like it gains him much. If I were Mafia, I’d be pushing the vote onto me.
It’s just because, as I say, it kind of keeps the thread’s same direction and if you’re town that direction is bad for us

You would be a focal point of discussion each day you’re alive most likely. Peum’s somewhat of a town leader already, and it’s likely that for multiple future days we’d have Peum pushing you to die as lead wagon before a later-in-the-day scum pushed counterwagon which would naturally be against town. Rinse and repeat for as long as possible to put town in an extended disadvantage state

Several of your voters already were very open to you possibly being town, so there were clear signs that a counter-push could be successful
 
Tbh I didn’t read the whole chat before posting that but like

Not changing my vote
Think ecat gets pushed off so it doesn’t matter
You can vote where you want to but I’d appreciate a response to mine and Bliz’ conversation with your rationale for siding with Bliz in it

Perhaps I’m biased but I’m pretty sure Bliz left bc he simply didn’t have a counterargument to what I said lol
 
It’s just because, as I say, it kind of keeps the thread’s same direction and if you’re town that direction is bad for us

You would be a focal point of discussion each day you’re alive most likely. Peum’s somewhat of a town leader already, and it’s likely that for multiple future days we’d have Peum pushing you to die as lead wagon before a later-in-the-day scum pushed counterwagon which would naturally be against town. Rinse and repeat for as long as possible to put town in an extended disadvantage state

Several of your voters already were very open to you possibly being town, so there were clear signs that a counter-push could be successful
I understand your point, but in that case Bliz (assuming he had gone along with the flow of the thread and voted me) wouldn’t he be able to just change his vote with total impunity if there were a counterattack? I mean, I understand that my misplays are valid justification to vote me, so it wouldn’t really be very scummy for anyone to jump onto my wagon.
 
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