NOC Everchanging Mafia - Game over, mafia wins!

Sorry for being inactive-ish yesterday, I was trying to hide the fact that I was both tracker and mayor last cycle. I watched Peum and either haven't gotten a message or got no info. Evie was Doctor last night, saying it just so that we have that info. Right now Des has Mayor as well. I will also note that I've used three abilities at this point; Tracker twice and Doctor once. I believe that means I only have one use left, so keep that in mind when passing roles.
 
Westcraft said:
Sorry for being inactive-ish yesterday, I was trying to hide the fact that I was both tracker and mayor last cycle. I watched Peum and either haven't gotten a message or got no info. Evie was Doctor last night, saying it just so that we have that info. Right now Des has Mayor as well. I will also note that I've used three abilities at this point; Tracker twice and Doctor once. I believe that means I only have one use left, so keep that in mind when passing roles.
Click to expand...
Yeah I figured you were tracker
 
Peum said:
This post has been written before nightkill, so I wont be assuming the nightkill into the equation, if I am not dead due to mafia wanting to reinforce Pulsar's last scum stance that is good, Scum has severely underestimated the capability of Town to solve all mafia in this Scenario.

3. Peum
5. vishy fishy
6. des121
7. Dead by Daylight
10. Evie
11. AirC
13. Westcraft
15. ElectricityCat
17. Genisu

Now that the necessary vote of Pulsar is gone, with the tradeoff of my townleaning in case Pulsar rolled Town, sadly this post will be seen by lens that judge me as potential mafia by some, but im fine with that. This is a necessary post, I will not refuse to express my solve or stop being active due to it. This town has yet not lost, so we can give our last leg.

First of all, due to the pressure of the situation, we have to make three assumptions that could be wrong.

One, Des is Town, due to how the passing mechanic works. This is good enough for now, having Des cutoff as mafia gives us leeway to start our solve

Two, WestCraft is town. This could've been an easy mafia bus to get towncore, but we need to get as many towncore as possible for this day, or we wont make it out.

Third of all, DBD cant be mafia with ECat. This one is important, Ecat passing mayor to DBD d1 means that either they're not on the same side or mafia wasted their pass D1. Due to how thoughtful last day was by mafia, I am going to say that a keep role would've been better than just keeping mayor on another mafia.

By these three principles we can now create a different list than seen above

Potential mafia scenarios (I will obviously not put me on here):
5. vishy fishy
10. Evie
11. AirC
15. ElectricityCat
17. Genisu

5. vishy fishy
7. Dead by Daylight
10. Evie
11. AirC
17. Genisu

If you're DBD or Ecat feel free to see one of the two lists above to form your scumcore

We now reach the land of subjectiveness. In which any couching could make us lose the game, but I will now be acting as if DBD and Vishy arent on the same scumteam, this is simply due to vishy voting DBD on day 1. Nothing else. I do not believe newscum would vote their partner d1.

Potential mafia scenarios (I will obviously not put me on here):
5. vishy fishy
10. Evie
11. AirC
15. ElectricityCat
17. Genisu

5. vishy fishy
10. Evie
11. AirC
17. Genisu

7. Dead by Daylight
10. Evie
11. AirC
17. Genisu

Now I will present the most subjective point of this whole scenario. Ecat cannot possibly be mafia. This is something I've been saving up for 2 days, I have two subjective points to believe this point, one. A Fairy would have never carried the kill if Ecat was mafia, mafia thought that anyone being tracked would end up knowing who visited them and what did they visit. This even though not clarified on the roles info, everyone seemed to think that it worked like that. It being a question to the host (which unfortunately gives us more reason to suspect westcraft) or a missconception that ended up being true which ended up directing their kill gives us a way to dictamine the point I will be presenting for why A fairy would have never carried the kill.

The mafia gave their nightkill to the most sus member, so that tracker wouldnt track their deepwolfs or luckily find them. ECat would've been more sus than A fairy, so by matter of discarding, and mafia's logical play, Ecat cannot be mafia.

My second point is that if Ecat ends up being mafia I wouldnt have any fault on the world because I suggested this policy vote day 2 thank you so no one can blame me.


Potential mafia scenarios (I will obviously not put me on here):
5. vishy fishy
10. Evie
11. AirC
17. Genisu
(remove equal ones)
5. vishy fishy
10. Evie
11. AirC
17. Genisu

7. Dead by Daylight
10. Evie
11. AirC
17. Genisu

Potential mafia scenarios (I will obviously not put me on here):

5. vishy fishy
10. Evie
11. AirC
17. Genisu

7. Dead by Daylight
10. Evie
11. AirC
17. Genisu

We now have atleast two mafia in every pool. If we decided to go with these pools, I am not a math teacher like bliz sadly but if my understanding of math is right and all assumptions then

if we voted randomly between the two pools, one pool has 1/4 of hitting a town and the other has a 2/4 of hitting a town. Which I think would be like a 3/8 chance of hitting the townie? Overall not viable I think
So then we have to go with the assumption that between Evie, AirC and Genisu there are 2 mafia, which gives us a 66% of hitting a mafia member and a 33% of hitting a town member, but this is assuming that all 3 are not mafia. I honestly dont know this is frying my brain

But with this said, I cannot make the pool smaller than it's now, and every assumption I make just makes me wonder if Westcraft is really as confirmed as he pretends to be, but hey. I thought that Bliz and Miyami shouldnt have been voted out, who am I to say why the inactive should be voted out.

I will give arguments to why everyone above could be mafia and arguments to how they could be not mafia and you guys will make the deciding shot. After this post I want to see how my townreads (Des, Westcraft and Ecat) vote. So I wont be influencing their vote anymore than that.

Arguments on why they could be mafia:
Vishy Fishy: Declared themselves as mafia, Maybe the vote to Evie d3 was coached by a mafia trying to tell her to stay out of the leading wagons, which she got off everyday except day 2.
Evie: Bussed a fairy day 1 to get towncred from Celever, Celever dying first rather than me could be due to how Celever actually considered Evie not as townie as me, where I tunneled more on Ecat and Pulsar. Weirdly silent on day 2 after votes were moving to another wagons
AirC: Defended Ecat to apply the strategy of gaining towncred by association, weirdly followed wagons after, Vote on Pulsar day 2 could've been a vote to throw chaos into the mix.
Genisu: plays differently to other games idk I cant read this guy even if my life depended on it
DBD: A fairy famously has like 0 posts on this guy for some reason, this guy has even worse votes than me so idk what to say

Arguments on why the could be town:
Vishy Fishy: Majorly seen as town by the maj of dead townies, Which honestly have seen more noobtown than me in mafia NOC, pushed against the pulsar wagon (Ecat vote wasnt really good tho)
Evie: General activity, most active members just ended up being revealed as town, at some points I thought we were playing 2 player game between who can guess what mafia was doing at any point, Accused A fairy day 1
AirC: Pulsar wagon would've thrown them onto the spotlight if it ended up happening, took a while to vote Pulsar which I would guess mafia would be Happy to do
Genisu: I have no idea bro, whatever he did with a fairy on day 2 idk
DBD: Pushed against the Pulsar vote by suggesting an AirC vote which is better than ECat I guess
Click to expand...
several major holes, #1 there is so much "prediction" of what scumteam is doing as if you are ON the scumteam. You said that ecat is town because otherwise ecat would be kill carrier, which is flat out wrong, scum does not necessarily put the kill on the most suspicious member, especially since they know they will be tracked??? its so much wifom and you make a ton of assumptions like. "Noobtown would never vote teammate on d1" in fact they literally do this all the time its called bussing and noobscum are the worst at it. You are by no means towncleared, in fact I think after this post you have TMIed multiple times. Honestly hats off for working this hard as scum(presumably), and honestly at this point im wondering as well why you "the most vocal town voice" have never been shot at by mafia and I think its because you are deepwolfing. Claiming that des and vishy are conftown is so out of reality that im wondering if this is just the scumteam... "most dead town players thought vishy was town", nobody actually read them its just been some weird sort of thread consensus that im not going with.
 
while putting people that are unreadable in his towncore. and in fact i think its highly possible that des is mafia and peum has told her not to post and that he would make up some bs as a "townclear"
 
genisu said:
several major holes, #1 there is so much "prediction" of what scumteam is doing as if you are ON the scumteam. You said that ecat is town because otherwise ecat would be kill carrier, which is flat out wrong, scum does not necessarily put the kill on the most suspicious member,
Click to expand...
A fairy held the kill carrier
genisu said:
especially since they know they will be tracked??? its so much wifom and you make a ton of assumptions like. "Noobtown would never vote teammate on d1" in fact they literally do this all the time its called bussing and noobscum are the worst at it.
Click to expand...
Noobscum would not vote teammate on d1, yes, I am saying that.
genisu said:
You are by no means towncleared, in fact I think after this post you have TMIed multiple times.
Click to expand...
Where have I revealed information that I dont have?
genisu said:
Honestly hats off for working this hard as scum(presumably), and honestly at this point im wondering as well why you "the most vocal town voice" have never been shot at by mafia
Click to expand...
WIFOM, Pulsar also said yesterday that she suspects me as mafia
genisu said:
and I think its because you are deepwolfing. Claiming that des and vishy are conftown is so out of reality that im wondering if this is just the scumteam...
Click to expand...
I've never claimed that vishy is conftown
genisu said:
"most dead town players thought vishy was town", nobody actually read them its just been some weird sort of thread consensus that im not going with.
Click to expand...
weird argument
 
genisu said:
hes been doing stuff for towncred this whole game, while none of it has actually helped town and keeps leading the thread to make sure town gets lynched.
Click to expand...
I have pushed Ecat, Pulsar and A fairy. In an ideal world we would have Ecat vote d2 Pulsar vote d3 and A fairy vote d4 and we would have a much more active chat
genisu said:
while putting people that are unreadable in his towncore. and in fact i think its highly possible that des is mafia and peum has told her not to post and that he would make up some bs as a "townclear"
Click to expand...
Mechanic clearing is not "bs"
 
Westcraft said:
Sorry for being inactive-ish yesterday, I was trying to hide the fact that I was both tracker and mayor last cycle. I watched Peum and either haven't gotten a message or got no info. Evie was Doctor last night, saying it just so that we have that info. Right now Des has Mayor as well. I will also note that I've used three abilities at this point; Tracker twice and Doctor once. I believe that means I only have one use left, so keep that in mind when passing roles.
Click to expand...
Wait how were you able to use tracker and pass mayor?
 
Peum said:
All abilities need to be passed, westcraft didnt vote with mayor so he gets to use tracker at night
Click to expand...
Actually, if I voted it would have shown that I only had one vote, because I effectively decided to not be mayor so that I could me tracker. That's the main reason I didn't initially claim mayor and I didn't end up voting.
 
Westcraft said:
Actually, if I voted it would have shown that I only had one vote, because I effectively decided to not be mayor so that I could me tracker. That's the main reason I didn't initially claim mayor and I didn't end up voting.
Click to expand...
Yeah I didnt pressure tracker too much to claim there bc after the argument u made I knew u were tracker
 
Peum said:
Yeah I didnt pressure tracker too much to claim there bc after the argument u made I knew u were tracker
Click to expand...
I figured it would get picked up, but I tried to not incentivize a kill onto me too much. Maybe I should have claimed, but that just guarantees WIFOM and idk if I wanted to do that with the prospect of tracker information.
 
Last night doctor should claim now tho
Peum said:
Mayor - Ecat - DBD - Phoopes - Peum - ?

Tracker - ? - Des - WestCraft - AirC - ? -

Doctor - Phoopes - LonelyNess - Celever?(LonelyNess) - WestCraft - ? -
Click to expand...
Mayor - Ecat - DBD - Phoopes - Peum - WestCraft - Des

Tracker - ? - Des - WestCraft - AirC - WestCraft

Doctor - Phoopes - LonelyNess - Celever?(LonelyNess) - WestCraft - ? -
 
Peum said:
Last night doctor should claim now tho

Mayor - Ecat - DBD - Phoopes - Peum - WestCraft - Des

Tracker - ? - Des - WestCraft - AirC - WestCraft

Doctor - Phoopes - LonelyNess - Celever?(LonelyNess) - WestCraft - ? -
Click to expand...
Last night doctor was Evie, and I did just get info from my track. Evie targeted Peum as doctor.
 
Peum said:
(Westcraft isnt confirmed so he gets a lightly darker shade of green)

Votecount EOD 1

StupidFlandrs48 (7): Blizihguh, Miyami~~~, phoopes, des121, peum, Westcraft, a fairy
Lonelyness (2): Laurel, vishy fishy
no vote (2): pulsar512b, Dead by Daylight
a fairy (1): evie
Dead by Daylight (1): LonelyNess
des121 (1): StupidFlandrs48
Miyami~~~ (1): Airc
phoopes (1): Celever
pulsar512b (1): genisu

Not voting: ElectricityCat

Votecount EOD 2

Miyami~~~(6): vishy fishy, Blizihguh, phoopes, ElectricityCat, Celever, Peum
Blizihguh (5) Dead by Daylight, a fairy, pulsar512b, Evie
vishy fishy (3): Miyami~~~, des121, LonelyNess
ElectricityCat (1): Westcraft
pulsar512b (1): Airc

Not voting: genisu

Votecount EOD 3

pulsar512b (5): peum, AirC, Evie, phoopes
Blizihguh (5): genisu, Lonelyness, des121, a fairy, Dead by Daylight
evie (3): Blizihguh, ElectricityCat, vishy fishy
Dead By Daylight (1): pulsar512b

Not voting: Westcraft

Votecounte EOD 4
A Fairy (7): Genisu, Evie, WestCraft, Peum, Vishy, Phoopes
WestCraft (1): A Fairy

Not Voting: AirC, ElectricityCat, Des121, Dead by Daylight, Pulsar
Click to expand...
Votecount EOD 1

StupidFlandrs48 (7): Blizihguh, Miyami~~~, phoopes, des121, peum, Westcraft, a fairy
Lonelyness (2): Laurel, vishy fishy
no vote (2): pulsar512b, Dead by Daylight
a fairy (1): evie
Dead by Daylight (1): LonelyNess
des121 (1): StupidFlandrs48
Miyami~~~ (1): Airc
phoopes (1): Celever
pulsar512b (1): genisu

Not voting: ElectricityCat

Votecount EOD 2

Miyami~~~(6): vishy fishy, Blizihguh, phoopes, ElectricityCat, Celever, Peum
Blizihguh (5) Dead by Daylight, a fairy, pulsar512b, Evie
vishy fishy (3): Miyami~~~, des121, LonelyNess
ElectricityCat (1): Westcraft
pulsar512b (1): Airc

Not voting: genisu

Votecount EOD 3

pulsar512b (5): peum, AirC, Evie, phoopes
Blizihguh (5): genisu, Lonelyness, des121, a fairy, Dead by Daylight
evie (3): Blizihguh, ElectricityCat, vishy fishy
Dead By Daylight (1): pulsar512b

Not voting: Westcraft

Votecount EOD 4
A Fairy (7): Genisu, Evie, WestCraft, Peum, Vishy, Phoopes
WestCraft (1): A Fairy

Not Voting: AirC, ElectricityCat, Des121, Dead by Daylight, Pulsar
Votecount EOD 5

pulsar512b (6): peum, Evie, genisu, des121, ElectricityCat, AirC
AirC (2): Dead by Daylight, pulsar512b
ElectricityCat (1): vishy fishy

Not voting: Westcraft
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top