I personally think peum isn’t mafia bc who would be mafia with peum? Other than me.
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NOC Everchanging Mafia - Game over, mafia wins!
- Thread starter Alice Kazumi
- Start date
yo genisu werent you the guy saying that I was talking like I was an insider from mafia
So even if doctor isn't in the game the probability that this happens (and that then mafia wins the 50/50 vote) is low as fuck lmao
So Westcraft is now scum because he asked Alice questions??
Anyone could be mafia with Peum, mafia have pushed each other before. This thread could very realistically just be scum v scum xd
i mean you are just an option, but plenty of people can fill that slot
no it isnt??? there would be like 3 targets Des can pass to, and mafia is always more coordinated than town
Westcraft didnt keep the information to themselves
incredibly improbable
explain
I have been pushing Ecat since day 1
Westcraft has pushed A fairy
Des has mechanical reason not to be voted
Vishy would be the most probable, but you cant make a scumteam with 1 person
Coordinated on what, reading des mind???
I didn't, it's not information I got by asking Alice, it's literally written in the rules and what you based your "mech solve" on D1
Do you notice that if we end up on a 3v3 scenario and mafia has doc, mafia only has to win a 50/50 while town has to win 3 in a row?
its badly written in the rules lol, everyone has agreed on that if you read it from the rules you would get another whole explanation from what it actually does
- x1 Watch + Track. If the target has used an action you will learn who they targeted and if the target was targeted by any ability you will learn it as well.
i pushed a fairy too, theres something called bussing for ecat. des's mechanical reasoning isnt real considering it is des after all not having discord/not realizing and it could be SvS, vishy is like a midground honestly and im not sure about this one
your push on a fairy wasnt real, if me and ecat were a bus, ecat would have pushed me harder than he is, and I do not understand what your understanding of des mechanical clearing is
Ok I love maths, let's run the numbers.
Assuming mafia hammers means the whole scumteam is revealed
Worst case scenario we don't consider doc at all
N6 : 3 scum 4 town
Likelihood that mafia hits mayor (0.33)
D7 : 3 scum 3 town
Likelihood we kill scum if mafia didn't kill mayor (1)
Likelihood we win the 50/50 if mafia did kill mayor (0.50)
Likelihood of loss at D7 (0.16666...)
N7 :
Likelihoods of mafia killing mayor (0.33)
Still one third because if things are right mafia won't know who had mafia D7
D8 :
Same as D7
Likelihood of loss at D8 (0.166666)
N8/D8
It's 2 50/50 in a row
Total likelihood of scum winning, 0.58
Yeah that sounds bad, expect doctor is here, and every kill on mafia is a chance that doctor could go back to town, so the odds of mafia winning this if they have doctor right now are lower that 0.5
So yeah, even if mafia starts with doctor and still has the 2 mafia in a row thing it's still town sided
Ok is this badly written :
A player can use the same action up to two times but not the same consecutively and can use up to four actions in total the whole game.
I'm sorry English is not my first language so maybe I'm just confused but this seems pretty clear to me
The suspicions on me are mostly being casted by you lmao
Weird seeming that you already considered doc on town from the getgo!!
Yeah this is not how it works...
mafia killing whoever gets passed the mayor on n7 is 0.5
and mafia killing whoever gets passed the mayor on n8 is 1
your calcs are wrong
I think it was pretty obvious that I was referring to actions in a row??
Is it? Idk if you say so, not half as weird as most of the stuff you said today
I was pretty clear about that but mafia doesn't know who's mayor on D7 and D8 so we cannot remove the current mayor from the kill pool
Yeah? That's literally the rule I quoted that's written in the rules??
why would they not know it? They have to vote to vote a scum off
Scum has a likelihood of 0.16 of winning ON D7, a likelihood of 0.16 of winning ON D8, a likelihood of 0.25 of winning ON D9.
Which means, the total probability (again worst case scenario) of scum winning is 0.56, which means town has 1-0.56= 0.44 of winning on the worst case scenario which isn't even a real scenario
this is still wrong...