I will tell you for free. During ~May/June 2012, my favorite baseball team, the Baltimore Orioles, were in first place about a third of the season in after being terrible for the previous 14 years. User
askaninjask (who i cant tag for some reason) was confident that this would be a fluke and that his beloved new york yankees would win the division easily. Now I'm no fool, I knew the Yankees were big favorites, so I asked for a slight cushion. The bet was that the Orioles would be within 3 games of the division lead at the end of the season. Sadly, the Orioles didn't win the division, but they finished 2 games back of the yankees at the end of the year, so I won the bet. This has been my signature ever since. (Please don't bring up the fact that the yankees beat the orioles in the playoffs that very year)