Tournament LTPL II / Smogon Snake Draft III: PU Discussion

ShuckleDeath

ShuckleDeath

They call me the kign of typos
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Snake Draft Introduction
Snake Draft Phase One (TBD)
Snake Draft Phase Two (TBD)

Smogon Snake Draft III is finally upon us! This is the place to discuss the PU section of the tournament so feel free to talk about match-ups, predictions, players, metagame trends or any other related things. This thread will be updated throughout the tournament as well.

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Trades:
The Shinto Ruin Serpents trade Tamahome, ZoroDark to the Ambrette Astrotias for Star, Sacri'
The Ambrette Astrotias trade TonyFlygon, august, GaryTheGengar to the Rumble Hall Rattlers for Lycans, Mint16, Feliburn

Possible PU Players:
Probable starters will be in italics.


Terminus Taipans: robjr, Teddeh
Berry Forest Bushmasters: Taskr, Serene Grace, passion
,Black City Mambas: Rexus, Sam I Yam, Jarii
Celadon City Cobras: Raiza, Finchinator
Shinto Ruin Serpents: soulgazer, Bobby Dagen, DurzaOffTopic
Lanakila Nagas: Ktütverde, Osh, Plas, Tricking
Sky Tower Lindworms: tko, tom holland, HT, -Tsunami-
Ambrette Astrotias: false, Feliburn
Lake of Rage Leviathans: Xiri, tlenit1
Rumble Hall Rattlers: Kushalos, Reje



Ambrette Astrotias vs Rumble Hall Rattlers:
false vs GaryTheGengar

Lake of Rage Leviathans vs Celadon City Cobras:
Xiri vs Raiza

Sky Tower Lindworms vs Shinto Ruin Serpents:
Tsunami vs soulgazer

Black City Mambas vs Terminus Taipans:
Sam i Yam vs ima

Berry Forest Bushmasters vs Lanakila Nagas:
Taskr vs Ktutverde

Sky Tower Lindworms vs Black City Mambas:
Tom Holland vs Sam I Yam

Lanakila Nagas vs Ambrette Astrotias:
Ktutverde vs False

Berry Forest Bushmasters vs Shinto Ruin Serpents:
Taskr vs soulgazer

Celadon City Cobras vs Rumble Hall Rattlers:
Raiza vs GaryTheGengar

Terminus Taipans vs Lake of Rage Leviathans:
Teddeh vs Xiri

Celadon City Cobras vs Lanakila Nagas:
Raiza vs Ktutverde

Lake of Rage Leviathans vs Black City Mambas:
Xiri vs Sam I Yam Rexus

Berry Forest Bushmasters vs Sky Tower Lindworms:
Taskr vs Tom Holland

Rumble Hall Rattlers vs Terminus Taipans:
Kushalos vs Teddeh

Shinto Ruin Serpents vs Ambrette Astrotias:
soulgazer vs False

Lanakila Nagas vs Terminus Taipans:
Ktutverde vs Teddeh

Lake of Rage Leviathans vs Rumble Hall Rattlers:
Xiri vs Kushalos

Celadon City Cobras vs Shinto Ruin Serpents:
Raiza vs soulgazer

Sky Tower Lindworms vs Ambrette Astrotias
HT vs Shug

Black City Mambas vs Berry Forest Bushmasters:
Sam I Yam vs Taskr

Ambrette Astrotias vs Berry Forest Bushmasters:
False vs Serene Grace

Terminus Taipans vs Shinto Ruin Serpents:
Teddeh vs soulgazer

Lake of Rage Leviathans vs Sky Tower Lindworms:
Xiri vs tom holland

Black City Mambas vs Celadon City Cobras:
Sam I Yam vs Raiza

Rumble Hall Rattlers vs Lanakila Nagas:
Rozes vs Sam

Ambrette Astrotias vs Lake of Rage Leviathans
false vs Xiri

Sky Tower Lindworms vs Celadon City Cobras:
Tom Holland vs Raiza

Shinto Ruin Serpents vs Lanakila Nagas:
soulgazer vs Ktutverde

Rumble Hall Rattlers vs Black City Mambas:
rozes vs Sam I Yam

Berry Forest Bushmasters vs Terminus Taipans:
Taskr vs Teddeh

Shinto Ruin Serpents vs Black City Mambas:
soulgazer vs Sam I Yam

Celadon City Cobras vs Berry Forest Bushmasters:
Raiza vs Taskr

Rumble Hall Rattlers vs Sky Tower Lindworms:
rozes vs tom holland

Ambrette Astrotias vs Terminus Taipans:
false vs Teddeh

Lanakila Nagas vs Lake of Rage Leviathans:
Ktutverde vs Xiri

Berry Forest Bushmasters vs Rumble Hall Rattlers:
Taskr vs Rozes

Terminus Taipans vs Sky Tower Lindworms:
Teddeh vs Col49

Black City Mambas vs Lanakila Nagas:
Sam I Yam vs Ktutverde

Lake of Rage Leviathans vs Shinto Ruin Serpents:
Xiri vs Star

Ambrette Astrotias vs Celadon City Cobras
False vs Raiza

Terminus Taipans vs Celadon City Cobras:
Teddeh vs Bouff

Ambrette Astrotias vs Black City Mambas:
False vs Jarii

Rumble Hall Rattlers vs Shinto Ruin Serpents:
Reje vs Star

Lanakila Nagas vs Sky Tower Lindworms:
talkingtree vs Croven

Berry Forest Bushmasters vs Lake of Rage Leviathans:
Taskr vs Xiri

Terminus Taipans vs Ambrette Astrotias:
Teddeh vs false

Lanakila Nagas vs Lake of Rage Leviathans:
Ktutverde vs Xiri

Terminus Taipans vs Lake of Rage Leviathans:
Teddeh vs Xiri
 
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Here's my shot at the power rankings :blobthumbsup: While I definitely have my top spots, a lot of the players look quite close to each other and there are no weak teams here. Gl everyone!


1. Terminus Taipans: (robjr, Teddeh) - the obvious leader in this pool. Not only is Teddeh the top PU player here and builds his own teams, he is the best battler among all the competitors from a pure skill perspective.
2. Lanakila Nagas: (Ktutverde, Osh, Plas, Tricking) - King Ktut quit PU while he was at the top of the game, and I'm sure he will come back with a vengeance to prove his doubters wrong. Tricking and Plas also offer great testing support to help iron out Ktut's often wild team ideas.
3. Ambrette Astrotias: (false, Feliburn)- PU Open winner False certainly has proven himself in the past with impressive victories, although he has less recent tour experience and can be inconsistent. However, support from the managerial duo of PUPL winner HJAD and EviGaro is incredible, especially for teambuilding and is a main factor in ranking him so high.
4. Berry Forest Bushmasters: (Taskr, Serene Grace, passion)- The former TL is one of the most fun players to watch, as well as the best builder of offensive teams out there. His supporting players are quality too, with Serene getting heavily involved in PU lately and Passion who is always willing to learn and help.
5. Rumble Hall Rattlers: (Kushalos, Reje) - if Kush starts, he is an extremely strong battler and maybe even on par with Teddeh in terms of skill. However, his teambuilding and testing support looks iffy here and another starter would almost certainly rank much lower.
6. Sky Tower Lindworms: (tko, tom holland, HT, -Tsunami-)- HT is not known for being a PU player, but he is coming off an extremely strong run in PU Open and he will have plenty of support here with cute user Tom Holland eager to prove himself in a team tour as well as potential wildcard innovator Shakeitup.
7. Black City Mambas: (Rexus, Sam I Yam, Jarii)- Is this finally Sam's breakout tour? With how dominant a battler Sam can be you can never rule him out from a victory. Rexus and Jarii are both fantastic potential subs and will offer plenty of testing support to make sure Sam's builds are not too predictable.
8. Lake of Rage Leviathans: (Xiri, tlenit1)- Xiri has plenty of experience in PU but is not as seasoned in team tours as some of the higher ups on this list. tlenit is also a great asset as a creative teambuilder, though his ideas can be hit and miss.
9. Shinto Ruin Serpents: (soulgazer, Bobby Dagen, DurzaOffTopic)- This team is a bit of a question mark. Soulgazer is a veteran of the game but it's hard to know how well he will become familiar with the PU meta. Luckily hard-working DurzaOffTopic will help with teams and testing, and Rodri is a powerful substitute slot.
10. Celadon City Cobras: (Raiza, Finchinator)- Raiza is no slouch and certainly is familiar with the PU meta, but his tour results are a bit lacking compared to some of the other names here. Still, Finchinator is a decent support/sub slot and I wouldn't be surprised if they emerged with a positive record.


EDIT: to account for managers
 
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false and I did a long snake discussion but tldw:

1. Taipans (Teddeh): Doesn't really need much of an explanation now does it

2. Astroitas (false): false wouldn't rank himself here but he doesn't get to rank himself and this is where I'd put pretty much any strong player supported by HJAD+Evigaro, which false happens to be despite his OU career. Friendly reminder that HJAD got three people relatively non-invested in PU to have a combined 18-1 record in SM during PUPL.

3. Serpents (soulgazer, Bobby Dagen): This could be proven dead wrong in a few weeks but soulgazer is arguably the strongest player in the pool of people likely to play PU on skill alone and if he's motivated to really get into the tier he could have a pretty devastating presence. It helps that if he hates PU or busters out for any other reason, Bobby Dagen could be a pretty strong replacement, although I couldn't say if the managers would actually swap their NU and PU slots.

4. Mambas (Rexus, Sam I Yam, Jarii): Rexus and Jarii are coming off some pretty solid highs recently (PULT champ and 6-0 PUPL), put the two of them together and you have a very strong looking PU slot. That Sam seems the more likely starter makes me concerned about activity and that he's been known to choke in multiple high pressure tour situations in the past, but everyone knows he's still capable of being a really strong player and eventually he's gotta move past those and have a good record. Probably.

5. Bushmasters (Taskr, Serene Grace): Taskr is coming off some really mediocre results in more than a few tours but he hasn't slipped into negative results recently and if he puts in some strong effort and uses that Serene support, it's at least hard to see this tour as being where he finally goes negative. Teddeh is the real PU BKC though.

6. Nagas (Ktütverde, Osh, Plas): Ktut's coming off uncharacteristically poor performances in PULT, Slam, and especially PUPL, but he still went 5-1 in exhibition not too long ago. While he's one of the weakest players in terms of skill, he still makes his teams do work and will probably end up with free reign to go back to his more unique style. As with soulgazer, if this doesn't work out both Osh and Plas are quite strong low tier subs even if their PU-specific experiences aren't the most deep.

7. Lindworms (HT, -tsunami-, tom holland): HT and shake are both pretty good and tom's not a bad builder, there's just not a lot to push ranking them higher. HT had a long slam run but a fairly unimpressive one from watching the actual games, and snake is probably going to push him more. shake is extremely strong but it's hard to see him really getting into PU the way someone like soulgazer might. And tom has been a solid builder so far, but not remotely proven in this kind of team tour environment. Not a bad draft by any means it's just hard to justify putting them higher (although without false's input I'd be swapping Lindworms with Nagas and there's definite potential for them to go even higher).

8. Leviathans (Xiri, tlenit1): Not a very strong core by any means but probably not going negative since they've both been extremely decent. Xiri had a great exhibition but otherwise isn't quite top of the pack in terms of playing skill here. We'll have to see how much he can cook up with tlenit's support.

9. Cobras (Raiza): I severely doubt Raiza ends up with the 9th best record but there's no justification for putting him higher really, recent results are mostly nonexistent save a 2-3 exhibition and he doesn't have the support that players like Taskr or Xiri benefit from (at least from his drafted teammates). Realistically though at least one or two of the slots above him are going to underperform and Raiza is going to use that to get himself a solid record.

10. Rattlers (????): If Kushalos started and got someone to make decent teams for him they'd be 3rd or 4th but I've been hearing all kinds of other names. In the podcast we mostly discuss rozes or GaryTheGengar and like, neither of them are bad players but there's also no PU experience there and neither are the typical tour names you see join a low tier premier league and put up a strong record because of overall mons skill. It's unclear if the managers have a plan to just muscle their way through PU with one talented player they hope will outperform mainers or just don't care about the one low tier when they can dominate everywhere else, but we'll really just have to wait and see who they start and what kind of performance they're able to put up in the first few weeks.

Again these are from myself and false, not HJAD, he wasn't on this week's untier talk
 
players are being polled for the 'official' power rankings now, so i thought i'd publicise my rankings to perhaps drive some discussion. no smoke if i ranked you lower than you think you should be ranked; i tried to be as objective/reasoned as possible and i mean no ill will towards anyone! the combined rankings i did with megazard were done before we knew the official slots (although we pretty much got them all correct!), and before i did much in the way of 'research'. so while our list on there is pretty close to this one, there are some slight variations. i won't be ranking myself, just the other 9 slots.

1. teddeh - i feel like teddeh not being the universal #1 in the pu power rankings would be a mistake. even if you completely ignore his current place in the finals of pu open, teddeh still ranks highly due to the fact that he is in the upper echelon of this bracket in both player skill and metagame familiarity. he is also one of the most experienced players in the pool, playing in previous editions of spl, making finals of grand slam etc. i could go on to list teddeh's pu-specific accomplishments but to be honest if you're reading this post then you should already know who teddeh is, as well why he is ranked so highly.

2. soulgazer - sg at 2 will probably be an unpopular opinion, especially with some of the mainers, but i think ranking him much lower than this would be a disservice. soulgazer has years of experience playing at the highest level, specifically in nu. player skill is already easily transferrable across tiers, but considering that a large majority of soulgazer's tournament experience comes across playing multiple generations of nu, he really isn't stepping too far outside of his comfort zone here and should be pretty quick to get up to speed. i think there's real potential that this turns into a situation similar to pokeaim during spl x, where a player comes in to a new tier without the preconceived notions that come with it, and is able to put up a good record by coming at prep/building from a different perspective; combine that with what i believe will be a very strong in-game, and i think you'd be hard pressed to rank soulgazer too much lower than this.

3. ktütverde - i rate ktut. i know a lot of people don't and i understand why, but the big key here is that i think ktut's style of building/play is going to really shine in a bo1 environment. his penchant for weird techs and unorthodox pokemon is surely going to be more potent in a format where the tech only has to hit once. while i don't think ktut's playing ability hits as high of a ceiling as some of the people ranked below him, his metagame familiarity and seemingly inherent ability to put himself at a matchup advantage will give him the edge vs a number of his opponents. lastly, i think he's landed in a really good spot with gama/m dragon as his managers; he shouldn't see much interference with the way he wants to build/prep, which i important, because i think trying to railroad someone like ktut is only going to lead to disaster.

4. sam i yam - depsite having soulgazer at #2, i think if there was one slot that i'm probably a little too high on, it's this one; however, i haven't got sam ranked #4 without reason! while i don't think sam i yam alone is the #4 ranked player on this list, he's in a near perfect situation; playing for a manager he has good history with and is further supported by multiple tournament-level pu players in rexus and jarii. i think based on recent tournament results you could make a case that jarii is an even better option in the pu slot here, but i think the situation sam is in pretty much maximises his upside, and so if he was going to do well this would be the time.

5. -tsunami- - HELLO LOOOOOOOL ISN'T THIS GUY A DPP MAIN? while it is true that the last time i saw shake not being crust was back when he was an ru mainer (i guess he did have a good run in that bad ass tour), i think his playing ceiling is top 2 in this pool, and if he really puts in the time and effort then there is absolutely no reason why he can't have a good record; he isn't one of the most successful tournament players of all time for no reason. he also the beneficiary of an exceptional supporting cast, and seems to be on a team he likes, which i think will both be important factors if he is going to have success here.

6. xiri - xiri was definitely one of the more difficult slots to rate because i don't know exactly how much i should be factoring in consistency on a list like this. how much of the benefit of the doubt do you give to those high ceiling players who could potentially vastly exceed expectations? is a player with a higher ceiling as valuable as someone who you know will be far more consistent? as i said in un-tier talk, xiri might not a high ceiling on par with some of the top players on this list, however, xiri also is arguably the most consistently solid player on this ranking. season after season, tour after tour, putting up respectable records across many tier, showcasing all the tools necessary to be respected as a strong player. i think this slot will sit somewhere in the .500 range, and while i wouldn't be shocked to see them exceed that to a small degree, i would be pretty surprised if they dropped much below that.

7. taskr - at this point i should really stop pretending, and just own my status as taskr's biggest hater (•̤̀ᵕ•̤́๑). taskr and xiri would be tied for me if i was allowed to give tied ranks, however i am not, and so taskr is ranked below xiri because i think there there is potential for far more highs and lows in taskr's season and i opted to value consistency. i don't want to sound overly negative, because i can absolutely see a scenario in which taskr is balling out, and finishes with a top 3 record. there are multiple players ranked above him that i don't believe have that potential. however, i think there is also a real possibility that he will struggle. taskr's success has never really transferred over when he's played other tiers, which is one cause for concern. how much of his success in pu comes from capitalising on weaker competition? also, while people seem to write off his recent poor exhibition, i'm not able to do that. perhaps if he was a bit closer to .500 i would be able to look past it, but 1-6 is a noticeably poor result, and his recent 3-1 (sm) in pupl didn't really do a whole lot to dissuade my concerns, as he feasted on weaker competition (all of his opponents were below .500). at the end of the day i really really hope taskr outperforms my ranking; he absolutely has the capacity to do so, and it would obviously be great if a real home-grown pu guy was able to step out into the bright lights and succeed at the highest level. it would mean big things for the tier, and taskr absolutely deserves to be the guy to do it.

8. raiza - a lack of recent results to draw from is a large part of the reason that raiza falls to 8th on my list. his recent pu tournament appearences are few and far between, and while he does have previous experience in pu, he's never really broken into that upper echelon of players. he's obviously pretty solid and has a familiarity with the tier that some other newcomers won't. however, outside of this i have almost nothing to go off of. i suppose i should also mention that he has good rapport with his managers, which is never a downside. beside that i really don't know what else to say.

9. garythegengar - putting gtg last was really tough because i absolutely do not think he is the worst player on this list; however, i really worry about how he is being supported, and how he's going to get his teams. if gary had even a single player on his team with any sort of pu building experience then i would easily be able to bump him up, but he doesn't. if he's planning to just learn pu on his own then i worry about how much he's able to get up to speed in such a short time. he doesn't appear to have played much of any lower tiers in any sort of competitive environment recently, he's spent the large majority of the time i've seen him playing tournaments either in current gen ou (previous editions of ssd) or dpp ou (spl). if, instead, he is just being fed by someone else, then i worry about his metagame familiarity and whether he will end up susceptible to players throwing him off with things he can't find in the analysis section. in hindsight this ranking is pretty foolish on my part, as gary is my week 1 opponent; and so i only really have the capacity to make myself look bad here, but oh well, it is what it is.
 
https://www.smogon.com/articles/snake3-power-rankings
1. teddeh 2. ktut 3. taskr 4. false 5. soulgazer 6. sam i yam 7. xiri 8. -tsunami- 9. raiza 10. garythegengar

Official snake power rankings from a survey of drafted players. Ends up fairly similar to thoughts posted previously, drafted people were a bit more negative on Sam but otherwise only minor differences. Blurbs written by shake
 
unbiased week 1 predictions from an unqualified person

false vs GaryTheGengar (75-25)
I honestly do not understand why anyone is underestimating false. The fact that he is already a great player as it is and then combine that with fantastic PU building support, I do not think that it is possible for false to lose without a choke or hax. GaryTheGengar is a tour player I am guessing but has no building support and is a more unimpressive tour player to slot into PU in my opinion. The only reason this isn't 90-10 is because I could see myself underestimating Gary's skill as a player, but even if i am I think it is still pretty heavily in false's favor.

xiri vs Raiza (40-60)
This one is a closer matchup. I consider these two team's PU very similar in skill, but I think a couple factors weigh it in Raiza's favor. The first is that I do think Raiza will be greatly underestimated in this tournament, and he might surprise everyone week 1 including xiri. Also, I bet Raiza is getting DL support from Italians and that support will be enough to Quality Control Raiza's teams, though I do think they will be fairly good on their own already. Lastly, while I love tlenit and think he is a great dude and good player, I kind of believe tlenit's builds are a little exploitable if you know how they are. If Raiza knows in which ways tlenit's builds are exploitable I think that Raiza has an edge over Xiri, but i do not know how much they know about tlenit to do that, and xiri might be building his own teams with tlenit just there as quality control. In the end this matchup is close and if their teams are of similar quality I think Raiza will outplay, meaning tlenit would have to supply a strong matchup to Xiri.

Sam I Yam vs Teddeh (30-70)
I am sorry but I genuinely do not think that Sam I Yam is good enough to have a chance vs Teddeh. Teddeh is fantastic and the only reason this is not 10-90 is because Sam has some nice support behind him to close the gap a small amount. However, it won't be nearly enough to beat Teddeh, and unless I am sleeping on the Yam train i think this is an easy week 1 win for Teddeh.

Taskr vs ktutverde (50-50)
I do not know if ktut is showing up as "pu circuit champ ktut" or "kinda krust ktut" and if it is the former ktut will most likely win, but if it is the latter then taskr will win. I think the latter might happen week 1 so Taskr still gets my pick. Taskr is pretty good i would say, probably middle of the pack in this pool.

shake vs soulgazer is the other highlight in this week but shake is going 9-0

AGAIN i am unqualified to write these and this is my opinion so of course it is probably dogshit but nevertheless I hope it is an enjoyable read and I hope other people do predicts.


​
 
unbiased week 1 predictions from an unqualified person V2.

false vs GaryTheGengar (50-50)
False for sure is the better PU player here and has had a solid records what comes to PU. The main question for this game might be Garys teams. Happily tho, its the week one which leaves a door open to use and recycle older teams. That been said, even when False is a favorite, I can see this game to be taken down by Gary - so the w1 surprise comes here, if it is ever gonna happen.

Sam I Yam vs Teddeh (20-80)
If this game ever happens, I think Teddehs latest run is just way too hot for Sam. I'm really looking forward to Sam break through finally a big time, but honestly I think we need to wait for w2 to get that started.

Taskr vs ktutverde (40-60)
Maybe the most waited game for me of w1. Both players had a small break of PU and coming back fresh. Ktuts ability to build anything comes super helpful in a tours like this. No need to support entire team like in PUPL. Ktut focusing only on own teams and scouting will give the edge over Taskr. I wouldnt be too surprised if Taskr manages to win this game as he also is super good.

Shake vs Soulgazer (30-70)
I think this game will be played between team supporters and for week 1, I think Soulgazer will come out with better team overall. Biggest consideration of Lindworms is Tom as a support builder. Fairly fresh with PU even the record from Slam was fine. Tom has took a big step what comes to TB, so dont get me wrong with that. Many said it well (about me above as a builder) "though his ideas can be hit and miss.". So overall i think team building competition w1 goes on SG's favor

xiri vs Raiza (-)
couple randoms playing so i dunno rly



Go Leviathans!
192085
 
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Week 1 Matchups

Ambrette Astrotias vs Rumble Hall Rattlers:
false vs GaryTheGengar

Lake of Rage Leviathans vs Celadon City Cobras:
Xiri vs Raiza

Sky Tower Lindworms vs Shinto Ruin Serpents:
Tsunami vs soulgazer

Black City Mambas vs Terminus Taipans:
Sam I Yam vs Teddeh

Berry Forest Bushmasters vs Lanakila Nagas:
Taskr vs Ktutverde

false vs GaryTheGengar- I know false and not garythegengar, so i guess by default I'd have to give this one to false.

Xiri vs Raiza- Raiza is being a bit underestimated in this tournament in my opinion. A solid player and a memeber of the PU community for many years, I think the fire has been litten under him, and he will succeed.

Tsunami vs soulgazer- I know they are both solid tour players, but I don't really follow tours for the most part so at this time and with the lack of knowledge I have about these players I can't really make a fair prediction.

Sam I Yam vs Teddeh- I love sam but Teddeh has been on fire as of late.

Taskr vs Ktutverde- I love Taskr too, but Ktutverde has shown tour dominance at a level I feel taskr has not shown yet.
 
week 2 matchups:
tom holland vs sam i yam
ktut vs false
taskr vs soulgazer
raiza vs garythegengar
teddeh vs xiri


PU predicts

ktut vs false - false is good stfu haters

taskr vs soulgazer - this one is hard to predict tbh

Raiza vs Garythegengar - raiza has the sauce boys

Teddeh vs Xiri - u bold teddeh's name, simple.

Highlight game is definitely taskr vs soulgazer, and i can see ktut vs false being a highlight too.
 
tom holland vs sam i yam - Every time I've talk with Tom or tested against him, I'm always impressed by his creative building and solid play. Meanwhile I think Sam still has the play ceiling to make this a good match, but maybe needs to find himself a little more in terms of building. I'd like to see some surprise sets and unconventional builds from him. I could see the first time on a stage of this scale maybe tilting the odds in favor of Sam but otherwise I think Tom has this.
ktut vs false I didn't pay much attention to False's recent Open run but I was pretty impressed with his build from Week 1 and ability to not choke 100-0 matchup. Meanwhile it seems like we may still have pupl ktut instead of ssnl champ ktut. I hope he can re capture the magic of jankbutstillwork builds that helped him do so well back then.
taskr vs soulgazer This is for sure a close one, but I think SG has the edge here. His play ceiling is very high and his potentially unconventional building could easily throw off a veteran like Taskr. That being said, I believe Taskr has returned to his dominant form after a disappointing pupl and is hungry for a win after getting lucked. Should be a good one.
raiza vs garythegengar It seems like Gary's lack of building support really hurt him in his Week 1 matchup. It's really hard to justify predicting in his favor until we see some better builds come out. Meanwhile raiza looks to be comfortable without support and has good skill to back it up.
teddeh vs xiri What is there to say about Ted that we don't already know? I believe theres a clear skill gap in this matchup and Ted has always known how to build solid teams that don't lose to random shit easily. 70-30 in Teds favor.
 
I have a lot of thoughts on most of the snake draft games but those will be going in Untier Talk instead, I might edit a link in here tomorrow when that's uploaded.

tom holland vs sam i yam - Sam had an unfortunately rocky start, but I can't be that high on Tom yet. He didn't start last week but what we do have to go off, Shake's team vs soulgazer and his general PU performance so far, is solid but not eye opening. Tom is capable of good stuff but his biggest win is still like, either Adaam or gum in open? And even he admits there was some definitely questionable stuff about the team Shake used. If there's anyone in this starting lineup Tom could beat it's probably Sam given Tom is going to put a lot of prep into beating Sam's continued linear team style, but I didn't think Sam's week 1 performance was too bad at all considering the implications of the Toxic miss, even if he did make a big choke with pompom. Could easily go the other way but predictions are about making the binary call and I'm gonna slightly favor Sam here.

Ktütverde vs false - Just kinda have to state the obvious that ktut looked real bad in his week 1 and false didn't. If there's a silver lining I'm pretty sure ktut is like, 1-0 or 2-0 or something vs HJAD back in 2018 (might be misremembering this but w/e), but that's the most I can see in his favor. Even mediocre OU player false is certainly a good bit ahead of how we saw ktut playing vs taskr.

taskr vs soulgazer - I mean yeah this is definitely the big highlight and the hardest to call, they both had pretty good showings week 1 and while I didn't love soulgazer's team (jelly muds rose sigh) I do think he's got plenty left to show. Honestly what clinches it is that Taskr doesn't have a lot to try to prep against, soulgazer has very little to go off strictly within PU experience whereas there's a lot to size up about Taskr and I think someone like soulgazer can definitely abuse that.

raiza vs garythegengar - I've seen the tour people more familiar with gary saying he'll come into his own and figure out PU but like, week 1 did not show that. It was a solid attempt that didn't really work in execution with Kabutops being the only remover for a really Spikes weak team and a few other large problems that seem like they'd stick out more to someone with more PU experience. I don't normally advocate for mainers over tour players much or at all but yeah, not confident in gary atm. Raiza came somewhat close to a loss last week but with a strong performance regardless so this looks to be in his favor.

teddeh vs xiri - I mean Teddeh's still not getting predicted against, and I didn't hate what Xiri was going for last week but it didn't inspire enough confidence to change this prediction.
 
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I will update the OP when I got the time to deal with problems the forum is giving me, for now the Week 3 match ups are:

Celadon City Cobras vs Lanakila Nagas:
Raiza vs Ktutverde

Lake of Rage Leviathans vs Black City Mambas:
Xiri vs Sam I Yam

Berry Forest Bushmasters vs Sky Tower Lindworms:
Taskr vs Tom Holland

Rumble Hall Rattlers vs Terminus Taipans:
Kushalos vs Teddeh

Shinto Ruin Serpents vs Ambrette Astrotias:
soulgazer vs False​
 
Raiza vs Ktutverde - Ktut has had far from a decent showing but he is 2-0... I feel like it's about time he gets more of a feel for the counter-styling of raiza because he's brought more meta-standard teams with cool niches and techs. Nevertheless - i would expect a good match and ktut will leave some holes in his team which could certainly be exploited. I think if the team builder is even close to a 50/50 match up then Raiza will definitely be looking more likely to win however - it's very reliant on Ktut's team builder and his ability to find some jank to try and outprep.

Xiri vs Sam I Yam - I'm gonna go with the big yam I sam because of his ability to close an end game. I think xiri gets bogged down in games and gets behind - makes a few good plays to get himself back in and then loses... I think sam needs to sort out his prep hard and use a couple of different cores with real synergy, otherwise he will be counter-teamed effectively eventually. If xiri does go 0-3, then we could potentially see a tlenit debut - which I am sure we're all rooting for.

Taskr vs Tom Holland - I don't like this match up and I think it's because both of these teams are 0-2. Taskr definitely doesn't deserve to be 0-2, but it can tilt a man when the chips are down and he shouldn't be losing - but i think he messed up the prep a little last week vs sg. Tom on the other hand very much deserves to be 0-1, with shake also being 0-1. Both of his teams showed good ideas in them, but they lacked execution and really shows his lack of experience in team tours. If I had a gun to my head and had to choose one or the other, more evidence tells me that taskr will win - but he needs to stay composed and get that first official team tour win.

soulgazer vs False - Ahhh the highlight match of the week (I won't count my own, but I am very much looking forward to playing kush). So here's the scenario - if false is on any other team, then I am predicting SG to win without a doubt. HJAD however is behind the teams and he is definitely top 3 PU builder, if not top 1 right now. This leaves a real tossup of who to predict since I think although sg's teams haven't been bad per say, they haven't been top tier either and he has definitely used mons that aren't the best. False on the other hand really didn't show too much promise in his week 2 vs ktut where he misplayed a few times in certain scenarios in the game and gave up on a winnable end game. If I had to predict this, I'd go with SG since he has been playing exceptionally recently and has had a good read on his victims like shake and taskr especially. With that being said - he will need to do something extraordinary in the team builder to make it more convincing to keep up with the hjad and false prep.
 
Dropping these predictions and thoughts here as well, if people aren't following the snake threads too much;

Snake w4 unbiased from Coach Carter:

Sam I Yam 35 vs 65 Taskr:
After a rough start Taskr finally managed to take routine W vs. Tom. Taskr being down 1-2 is mostly not because playing poorly. So far his teams has showed nice creativity. In the other hand what comes to creativity, Sam has been doing his stuff so far with same similar looking builds. Unfort food poisoning yesterday made Rexus jump in. What really makes it unfort was hearing after game that sam prep really included something new, looking forward to see this happening vs. taskr as well. Overall I think Taskr has the edge here as a better player and with his capability of bringing more versatile teams

HT 45 vs 55 False:
We are having a w4 and its already third guy on PU slot for Lindworms. Tom showed a nice little grow from w2 disaster and I thought they would still given a shot for him. Anyhow HT will be starting for this week. It has been interesting how their teams been developing from w1, can they still keep it up? False's start hasn't been the smoothiest and last week team didn't make too much sense for me. I kinda can see two equal teams showing up and False pulling his stuff together and collects the W and ties his record to 2-2

Raiza 55 vs 45 Soulgazer
Definitely highlight game of this week what comes to PU. The only remaining players with clean sheet and only one can keep it up. Raiza has shown super solid playing within all his three games. Soulgazer comes into this game with same clean record, but what makes me think Raiza as a slight favor is that raiza has been more convincing with his games so far

Ktütverde 51 vs 49 Teddeh
Alright, I might shoot with this my own ankle, but this is where this week surprise happens. Ktut showed on w2 some flashes about the mighty KingKtut, but followed up w3 with KrustyKtut. His teams has been having a edge on all three games and I do believe it will happen again vs Teddeh. Im keenly looking forward to find out Teddeh's this week old school set (so far banded copycat Pard & Magnet Rise Aggron) and how he is able to play with it.

Xiri vs Kushalos
RANDOOOOOOOOOOOMS

LGI LEVIATHANS!
1568622803019.png
 
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Sam I Yam vs Taskr - Taskr's stayed a lot stronger than his 1-2 would suggest, I don't know that he's full PU BKC right now but he should be 1-2 and he had a pretty respectable showing vs soulgazer too. Critically he hasn't had a big miss so far, whereas Sam was planning to stall Xiri in a way that did not work out whatsoever even though it was Rexus that took the fall for him. While both of them only have a single win and it's versus Tom, Taskr has so far mostly lived up to his hype and I'm not sure the Sam+Jarii+Rexus core is really working out so far.

HT vs False - Tom support hasn't worked out and HT had a really rocky game vs pak for slam that did not look great at all, and while his slam run was solid he was still just recycling a lot and not bringing a ton new to the table. False isn't super hot right now with his only win being vs garythegengar but he's still bringing a lot more to the table here.

Raiza vs Soulgazer - Very fun highlight, really liked what both of them have been bringing so far. I think Raiza has looked maybe a bit better in the team department but it's hard to argue that soulgazer is overall the stronger player and false/taskr/shake is a better win spread than ktut/gary/xiri.

Ktütverde vs Teddeh - Remember, I'm only doing this because I HATE Ktut and would never say a nice thing and NOT because Teddeh still looks to be at least top 3 in the pool and had a really close loss to the chef ft. a hard crit to swallow while I have no idea what Ktut was going for with his team last week but it didn't exactly fill me with confidence.

Xiri vs Kushalos - I'm glad Xiri got two PU wins last week and made top 8 of slam, but it's Kush lol. As long as tlenit and Xiri don't pull out something so ridiculous it completely outclasses him (or as long as he doesn't go back to using whatever gary was) Kush has proven over and over that he can go head to head with anyone in the tier and almost always look like the stronger player.

e: here's the untier talk discussing last week's games
 
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Sam I Yam vs Taskr - Taskr is a fantastic builder and player and Serene grace is actually excellent support and they also work very well together. Taskr is going to take the momentum he gained and go on a winstreak and get a positive record soon.

Raiza vs Soulgazer - I think Raiza is a phenomenal player and extremely capable of breaking Soulgazer's winstreak. However, I do think Soulgazer has a small edge because his week 1 team vs recent teams has had massive improvement and his play is crisp af. I expect soulgazer to only get better. But yes Raiza is fantastic and I would even bold him over anyone else in this pu pool, just not Soulgazer.

Ktutverde vs Teddeh - Teddeh is super impressive still and Ktut I think is average in this pool

Xiri vs Kushalos - this match is very close but Xiri and Tlenit had an AMAZING matchup win and also amazing plays by Xiri in my opinion. It took them time to find their stride, but I think they found it, and now they are going to use that momentum in this game and upcoming ones. Very exciting match though because Kushalos is fantastic himself and is going to make this match extremely challenging for both sides.
 
Week 4 match ups:

Lanakila Nagas vs Terminus Taipans:
Ktutverde vs Teddeh

Lake of Rage Leviathans vs Rumble Hall Rattlers:
Xiri vs Kushalos

Celadon City Cobras vs Shinto Ruin Serpents:
Raiza vs soulgazer

Sky Tower Lindworms vs Ambrette Astrotias
HT vs False

Black City Mambas vs Berry Forest Bushmasters:
Sam I Yam vs Taskr​
 
Week 5 matchups, also sorry for being late on this:

Ambrette Astrotias vs Berry Forest Bushmasters:
False vs Taskr

Terminus Taipans vs Shinto Ruin Serpents:
Teddeh vs soulgazer

Lake of Rage Leviathans vs Sky Tower Lindworms:
Xiri vs tom holland

Black City Mambas vs Celadon City Cobras:
Sam I Yam vs Raiza

Rumble Hall Rattlers vs Lanakila Nagas:
Rozes vs Ktutverde​
 
False vs Taskr
Teddeh vs soulgazer
Xiri vs tom holland
Sam I Yam vs Raiza
Rozes vs Ktutverde
 
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Week 6 Match Ups:

Ambrette Astrotias vs Lake of Rage Leviathans
false vs Xiri

Sky Tower Lindworms vs Celadon City Cobras:
Tom Holland vs Raiza

Shinto Ruin Serpents vs Lanakila Nagas:
soulgazer vs Ktutverde

Rumble Hall Rattlers vs Black City Mambas:
rozes vs Sam I Yam

Berry Forest Bushmasters vs Terminus Taipans:
Taskr vs Teddeh​
 
Week 7 Match Ups:

Shinto Ruin Serpents vs Black City Mambas:
soulgazer vs Sam I Yam

Celadon City Cobras vs Berry Forest Bushmasters:
Raiza vs Taskr

Rumble Hall Rattlers vs Sky Tower Lindworms:
rozes vs tom holland

Ambrette Astrotias vs Terminus Taipans:
false vs Teddeh

Lanakila Nagas vs Lake of Rage Leviathans:
Ktutverde vs Xiri​
 
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