Tournament MWP VII - Week 7

[evakiyama!]

Art by Moosical
Hosted by gyattmason, i hate work so much, and #008451

Monotype Winter Premier VII
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• Follow all rules listed here.
• Schedule via Smogon VMs. It's easier for us to make decisions for activity calls when I can actually see what went down with scheduling.
• If you are unable to schedule with your opponent, please let your managers know ASAP. Managers, please ping the opposing team's pingable role to inform them.
• Substitutions may be made after a week has started. When making a substitution, please tag myself, the managers of the opposing team, and all of the players affected by the substitute to ensure that everyone is made aware. Players who have already played in the week or were subbed out in the same week cannot be subbed back in.
• If a match remains incomplete by the time of the deadline, it will be subject to an activity call.
• Replays are mandatory. Not only are they useful for confirming wins, but they also contribute to usage stats and allow the people who couldn't watch the games live to watch them later.

vs

Mudae Mudbrays (0) vs (1) Corviknights of the Round Table
SV: Fraolain vs MemphisDepay
SV: mind gaming vs Sificon
SV: Gondra vs Wincon
SV: Tuff Tuff vs Bluxio
SS: Dieu Amphibien vs LoSconosciuto
SM: Dj Breloominati♬ vs terrors
ORAS: NoName6293 vs Bitana
BW: Fogbound Lake vs Shucklegigas
NatDex: Rowlet69420 vs Sunnyboi0
Monothreat: AgencyIsOwn vs Leafeonlol

vs

I Could Be Bellibolts (0) vs (0) Subspace Porygons
SV: Azick vs King Choco
SV: zS vs cpt.kraken
SV: Starfox. vs Fentropy
SV: clean vs TheWyvernKing
SS: Hacker vs Sagazinha
SM: emforbes vs Showl
ORAS: Xrn vs Ineros
BW: hellom vs Gelbel3c
NatDex: Neko vs TTK
Monothreat: Nat vs Thanos

vs

Mt. Battle Minuns (0) vs (2) Northern Veils
SV: RoyalReloaded vs twinkay
SV: hammy3581 vs Vodoom
SV: crash vs Taka
SV: Vapour vs HAVOCKNIGHT
SS: Cielau vs Tenebricite
SM: Incognition vs Leroipolux
ORAS: adjustments vs feen
BW: benladil vs zugubu royale
NatDex: Bka Onon vs Tarre25
Monothreat: ikiarihS vs DAHLI

vs

Seafolk City Spirits (0) vs (0) Victory Road Victinis
SV: Scarfire vs Fusien
SV: LBN vs Xiri
SV: Axzel vs Rio Vidal
SV: PixelBob vs Rinda
SS: Stareal vs MichaelderBeste2
SM: Larry vs etern
ORAS: DugZa vs 1 True Lycan
BW: sky vs nomadderwhat
NatDex: sealoo vs Fixzation
Monothreat: LogIce vs Ewin

Threat type is GRASS

Prediction Template

Mudae Mudbrays (0) vs (0) Corviknights of the Round Table
SV: Fraolain vs MemphisDepay
SV: mind gaming vs Sificon
SV: Gondra vs Wincon
SV: Tuff Tuff vs Bluxio
SS: Dieu Amphibien vs LoSconosciuto
SM: Dj Breloominati♬ vs terrors
ORAS: NoName6293 vs Bitana
BW: Fogbound Lake vs Shucklegigas
NatDex: Rowlet69420 vs Sunnyboi0
Monothreat: AgencyIsOwn vs Leafeonlol

I Could Be Bellibolts (0) vs (0) Subspace Porygons
SV: Azick vs King Choco
SV: zS vs cpt.kraken
SV: Starfox. vs Fentropy
SV: clean vs TheWyvernKing
SS: Hacker vs Sagazinha
SM: emforbes vs Showl
ORAS: Xrn vs Ineros
BW: hellom vs Gelbel3c
NatDex: Neko vs TTK
Monothreat: Nat vs Thanos

Mt. Battle Minuns (0) vs (0) Northern Veils
SV: RoyalReloaded vs twinkay
SV: hammy3581 vs Vodoom
SV: crash vs Taka
SV: Vapour vs HAVOCKNIGHT
SS: Cielau vs Tenebricite
SM: Incognition vs Leroipolux
ORAS: adjustments vs feen
BW: benladil vs zugubu royale
NatDex: Bka Onon vs Tarre25
Monothreat: ikiarihS vs DAHLI

Seafolk City Spirits (0) vs (0) Victory Road Victinis
SV: Scarfire vs Fusien
SV: LBN vs Xiri
SV: Axzel vs Rio Vidal
SV: PixelBob vs Rinda
SS: Stareal vs MichaelderBeste2
SM: Larry vs etern
ORAS: DugZa vs 1 True Lycan
BW: sky vs nomadderwhat
NatDex: Sealoo vs Fixzation
Monothreat: LogIce vs Ewin

Deadline: <t:1768193940:f>​

 

[feen]

won gg
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6monotype-897161

 

[Ethereal Sword]

Hello everyone. Here are the playoffs probabilities for the start of Week 7.

Veils = 1
Victinis = 1
Spirits = 0.985049
Porygons = 0.623236
Bellibolts = 0.378924
Mudbrays = 0.012792
Corviknights = 0
Minuns = 0

… which are not affected by the game that just finished, thanks for that.

 

[Tarre25]

won, gg
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9nationaldexmonotype-897193

 

[MemphisDepay]

Won gg
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9monotype-897209

 

[Ethereal Sword]

By request, here are each team's path to qualification as well as their updated qualification probabilities. I will assume no deadgames.
Veils/Victinis (100% to qualify):

Corviknights/Minuns (0% to qualify): The real playoffs were the friends we made along the way.

Spirits (99.2% to qualify): Win or draw = automatic qualification. On a loss, there are multiple paths to not qualify depending on the result of Porygons-Bellibolts:

• Porygons win or Bellibolts win -> can only be overtaken by Mudbrays. This requires Mudbrays to win. Here, each Victini win and Mudbray win will close the gap in differential. A tiebreak occurs if the Victinis and Mudbrays collectively win 15 games (for instance, a 6-4 Victini win and a 9-1 Mudbray win would give both Spirits and Mudbrays a differential of 4). Automatic elimination occurs if the Victinis and Mudbrays collectively win 16+ games.
• Porygons and Bellibolts tie -> then Bellibolts will have a fixed differential of -1 and Mudbrays has the same behavior as in the previous case. The difference here is that if Spirits end up with a differential of -2 or lower (which occurs on a 1-9 or 0-10), there is no tiebreak as Bellibolts go through. Therefore a tiebreak occurs if the Victinis and Mudbrays collectively win 15 games and the Spirits win at least 2 games (i.e. no worse than 2-8). Automatic elimination occurs if the Spirits lose 1-9 or worse or if the Victinis and Mudbrays collectively win 16+ games.

Porygons (62.3% to qualify): Win or draw = automatic qualification. A draw only led to a tiebreak if the Mudbrays win 10-0, which is already impossible. A loss is automatic elimination.

Bellibolts (37.9% to qualify): Win = automatic qualification. A draw qualifies if the Spirits lose 1-9 or worse and the Mudbrays go 6-4 or worse. A loss is automatic elimination.

Mudbrays (0.56% to qualify): Draw or loss = automatic elimination. The Mudbrays must win and furthermore win by enough to overtake two teams in points or differential. Here are the scenarios in which that can be done for each team:

• Porygons: If Porygons lose, Mudbrays overtake by points but cannot overtake Bellibolts. If Porygons tie, Mudbrays can no longer overtake by differential as this would have required a 10-0 win.
• Bellibolts: If Bellibolts lose, Mudbrays overtake by points but cannot overtake Porygons. If Bellibolts tie, Mudbrays can overtake with a 7-3 win or better.
• Spirits: If Spirits win or tie, it is impossible for Mudbrays to overtake them. Otherwise, Mudbrays and Spirits tie on differential if the Victinis and Mudbrays collectively win 15 games, and Mudbrays overtake if they collectively win 16+ games.

Essentially, the Mudbrays must overtake Spirits and then also overtake either Porygons or Bellibolts depending on the result of their match. This means that in the best case, a 6-4 win could theoretically be enough to qualify without a tiebreak, but this requires a decisive result in Porygons-Bellibolts and the Spirits to lose 10-0. This also means that a Spirits win or tie automatically eliminates the Mudbrays as it is impossible to overtake both the Porygons and Bellibolts.

If there are any errors or scenarios I missed, please let me know.

 

[Vapour]

won gg
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen9monotype-897462
substitute heatran best heatran