Tournament NDOTSL II - Week 5

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BoingK

BoingK

v eepy
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Amazing art by sealoo
​

  • Follow all rules listed here.
  • Schedule via Smogon VMs. It's easier for me to make decisions for activity calls when I can actually see what went down with scheduling.
  • If you are unable to schedule with your opponent, please let your managers know ASAP so they can communicate that to me or the other team's managers for a potential substitute.
  • If your opponent does not turn up for the match, you must let your managers know ASAP so they can ping the hosts (BoingK and Kinetic) and the opposing managers in the NDOTSL manager chat and give an opportunity for a sub to be sorted. Without this, the 30 minute act call timer will not be started. If your managers are not around, ping the hosts directly.
  • Substitutions may be made after a week has started. When making a substitution, please tag myself, the managers of the opposing team, and all of the players affected by the substitute to ensure that everyone is made aware. Players who have already played in the week or were subbed out in the same week cannot be subbed back in.
  • If a match remains incomplete by the time of the deadline, it will be subject to an activity call.
  • Replays are mandatory. Not only are they useful for confirming wins, they contribute to usage stats and allow the people who couldn't watch the games live to watch them later.
  • Managers: Please send me your lineups in the same format that I used to post pairings. It makes it much easier to post future rounds more quickly.

>>Spreadsheet<<
>>Replays and Usage<<
>>Commencement<<

:heatran: HeeHee Heatrans (5) vs (2) Stylish Bingus Sceptiles :sceptile:
AAA: Fluore vs Kayzn
BH: XxLazzerpenguinxX vs Espathra Dreaming
STAB: Kinzo vs hidin
GG: The Dragon Master vs about15gals
UUbers: teamo vs Adriyun
NFE: TTK vs Beleth
LC: bleahey vs Charis_Akins
DUbers: zee vs sir jelloton

:slaking: Slacking Slakings (3) vs (5) Desolation Groudons :groudon:
AAA: RoFnA vs Glory
BH: TTTech vs big tony 2014
STAB: xdRudi.exe vs ARTYMASION
GG: AM vs Clas
UUbers: veti vs Poosh_i
NFE: Rei vs Maybca☆〜ゝ。∂
LC: Lialiabeast vs rarre
DUbers: NinjaSnapple vs Frixel

slaking-png.664397
Ginkals: Reloaded (4) vs (3) Mr Morale and the Aqua Steppers :quaquaval:
AAA: FadedCharm vs LordBox
BH: shadowpea vs anaconja
STAB: Runo vs Amstan
GG: Xurkiyee vs Evie
UUbers: Zrp200 vs Elvira
NFE: seth vs sealoo
LC: Flou vs LeJames Chonk
DUbers: Smudge vs Glimmer

Deadline: Sunday the 15th of September, 23:59 GMT -7
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As requested by AM

THE PLAYOFFS PICTURE A.K.A. CAN AM GOOF OFF THIS WEEK​

This playoff push is going to be very interesting, because of the way the schedule has aligned itself. The 4 teams not guaranteed playoffs are all playing each other and this makes things incredibly interesting.

Already qualified
Q. :sceptile: The Sceptiles are safely through. Playoffs are top 4 this time around and they have a 3 point advantage over 5th and 6th. Go figure!

Q. :heatran: The Heatrans are also qualified, despite only being 2 points ahead of the bottom 2 - this is thanks to the matchups this week. In fact their seed is pretty safe - a draw against the Sceptiles, who are also qualified, ensures that both teams maintain their seeding positions, and a win would put the Heatrans in first. The spoiler below explains why the Heatrans are safe.
The Heatrans are in 2nd, which means they would have to finish the gameweek in 5th to be eliminated from the tournament. This means they have to be overtaken by 3 teams - however of the 4 teams below them, only one (Ginkals) has hit the 4 point mark and the other 3 all sit on the same record of 3 points. This means the Ginkals would have to draw and two more teams would have to win, and the Heatrans would have to lose by at least 6-2, in order for them to be eliminated. However, because of the matchups this week, these bottom teams are fighting each other, and therefore of the teams below the Heatrans only a maximum of 2 can be returned as winners. This means 3 teams cannot overtake the Heatrans, and therefore they are mathematically safe from elimination at this stage.

IN THE HUNT
Literally everyone else lmao

3.
slaking-png.664397
The Ginkals are the favourites of the remaining to be qualified, thanks to their point and differential advantage.
A win or draw will guarantee playoffs, since this scenario means they cannot be passed by two other teams (they play MMATAS this week, and Groudons face Slakings - this means even a draw means only one team can pass them, and that would be Groudons or the Slakings by a win with significant differential gain).
A loss means they are at the mercy of the other important fixture this week - if either the Groudons or the Slakings win, the Ginkals will be eliminated. If the Groudons and the Slakings draw, the Ginkals will enter a 3-way tiebreak with them if they lost by 5-3: a loss by more guarantees them out.

4. :slaking: :groudon: The Slakings and The Groudons have the next easiest path to playoffs, and also the simplest.
A win means qualification for the team that wins, and elimination for the team that does not.
A draw however would guarantee tiebreak, no matter the other outcomes this week. The spoiler below explains why a draw would guarantee tiebreak, no matter the other outcomes this week.
A draw would put both these teams on 4 points, -2 differential.
In the case that the Ginkals win, MMATAS don't reach 4 points and we have a straight tiebreak.
In the case that the Ginkals and MMATAS draw, MMATAS reach 4 points and -2 differential, and we have a 3-way tiebreak (the funniest outcome).
If MMATAS win, the Ginkals are on 4 points and would always have -2 differential or less, leading to a 3-way or straight tiebreak depending on how much they lost by.
In any case, a draw in this matchup guarantees a tiebreak of some sort.

4. :quaquaval: The Aqua Steppers have a slightly tougher time in my opinion, but not by much.
Once again, a win means qualification and losing means elimination from the tournament.
A draw may lead to a 3-way tiebreak but only if the Groudons and the Slakings draw - this is what makes their playoff route harder: they have basically no leeway for error. A draw risks losing it all.

TL;DR - :sceptile: :heatran: qualified
slaking-png.664397
qualify on a win or a draw
:slaking::groudon: qualify on a win, tiebreak on a draw
:quaquaval: qualify on a win, may tiebreak on a draw depending on Slaking-Groudon result

AM sorry boss i think you gotta lock in
 
:slaking: Slacking Slakings (4) vs (4) Desolation Groudons :groudon:
AAA: RoFnA vs Glory - Mind says Glory, heart says RoFnA
BH: TTTech vs big tony 2014 - Bigtony's a perpetual unknown variable. With a lot of top BH players (including TTTech) experiencing upset losses these past couple of weeks it's anyone's game, but I think TTTech has a confident edge here.
STAB: xdRudi.exe vs ARTYMASION - I like this match-up for many reasons. Top OU player vs Top Nat Dex player. German ingenuity vs French artistry. Both are sitting at 2 losses. I think xdRudi.exe might win this, but Arty has a stronger metagame knowledge plus support from Maybca.
GG: AM vs Clas - Believe it or not, Clas would be the underdog here. AM has won more games recently and won them more decisively, but I have enough confidence in Clas's teambuilding to give them the edge here.
UUbers: veti vs Poosh_i - Poosh_i has impressed me in their victory over Mom Lover. However, veti is the guy to beat for this tour.
NFE: Rei vs Maybca☆〜ゝ。∂ - I have no clue how good Rei is as a pilot, but given Zas's burnout, the Slakings probably have a better chance with them. Maybca uses off-beat teams but pilots them well.
LC: Lialiabeast vs rarre - Lialia has gotten a lot better at NDLC, but rarre is still a formidable even at 0-2. Smart money says Lialia tho.
DUbers: NinjaSnapple vs Frixel - Leaning Frixel based on performances

Ginkals: Reloaded ~(3) vs (5) Mr Morale and the Aqua Steppers :quaquaval:
AAA: FadedCharm vs LordBox - Lordbox is a tough cookie to crack in the builder and in-game. Faded did impress me with their games though.
BH: shadowpea vs anaconja - Shadowpea has good wins over Sevag and Chessking, but Anaconja is a household staple in NDBH - and a tactical builder/player.
STAB: Runo vs Amstan - Amstan was the guy last NDOTSL, but I think the metagame shifts have not been too kind to him. Runo didn't look that dominant in his win over xdrudi, but he played till the bitter end. In a tour like this, that goes a long way.
GG: Xurkiyee vs Evie - I know Evie lost their last game, but I guarantee you not a single soul would have expected Evie to lose until the last few turns. And while I think Xurkiyee has the je ne sais quoi that makes be believe that he is the better player, Evie is a very creative builder (as I learnt the hard way during the seasonal).
UUbers: Zrp200 vs swinubfan44 - ZRP200 + Runo is a scary core for UUbers in terms on paper metagame knowledge. However, I think ZRP wins this off his in-game IQ.
NFE: seth vs sealoo - Sealoo builds better and plays a more robustly. I think Seth has the tools to beat Sealoo though. If he played the Zastra bo3 I could tell you exactly what they were, but unfortunately that game didn't come through.
LC: Flou vs LeJames Chonk - This is going to be Flou's come back game, I promise!
DUbers: Smudge vs Glimmer - Dubers is an unforgiving pool and metagame so anything can happen. I initially picked Glimmer, but having extra support matters a lot in this format.
 
predicts i guess

:heatran: HeeHee Heatrans (0) vs (0) Stylish Bingus Sceptiles :sceptile:
AAA: Giyu vs Kayzn
BH: XxLazzerpenguinxX vs Espathra Dreaming
STAB: Kinzo vs hidin
GG: The Dragon Master vs about15gals
UUbers: Mom Lover vs Adriyun
NFE: TTK vs Beleth
LC: bleahey vs Charis_Akins
DUbers: zee vs sir jelloton
This matchup matters for shit all, so i'm predicting these games to be as low effort as this set of predicts

:slaking: Slacking Slakings (4) vs (4) Desolation Groudons :groudon:
AAA: RoFnA vs Glory - gut feeling
BH: TTTech vs big tony 2014 - moving clas out of bh is a bold decision
STAB: xdRudi.exe vs ARTYMASION - better at stab
GG: AM vs Clas - AM is the strongest GG player this tour and it's not close
UUbers: veti vs Poosh_i - idk uubers a coinflip tier
NFE: Rei vs Maybca☆〜ゝ。∂ - maybca is the nfe goat + he's french so he gets an addition boost
LC: Lialiabeast vs rarre - i know NOTHING about ndlc and that's because my LC teammates last year REFUSED to cooperate with each other. Therefore i coinflipped this predict
DUbers: NinjaSnapple vs Frixel - household name

slaking-png.664397
Ginkals: Reloaded (3) vs (5) Mr Morale and the Aqua Steppers :quaquaval:
AAA: FadedCharm vs LordBox - the breathing ndaaa man
BH: shadowpea vs anaconja - packed matchup
STAB: Runo vs Amstan - i stan amstan - i think he can take this one
GG: Xurkiyee vs Evie - better at gg
UUbers: Zrp200 vs swinubfan44 - erm coinflip tier
NFE: seth vs sealoo - sealoo is better
LC: Flou vs LeJames Chonk - irdk a lot of lc but i know flou is good (i think)
DUbers: Smudge vs Glimmer - smudge is winless and glimmer is not. smudge also hasn't played the last two weeks
 
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