I'm conflicted about this suspect, still not sure Heatom is a problem right now, but ultimately I think the only correct decision for me is to vote BAN. I already talked a lot about Heatom, I was one of the main voices advocating for its ban for like.. a year, even making my anti-Heatom activism a running gag. I've also made it clear that right now, in this specific meta, I do not think Heatom is that restrictive. I also think it's at a lower point, because people adapted and the rest of the meta is forcing you less to play mons it abuses anymore, being more offensive, more flexible with pivots and such.
However, I do not think the angle should be about whether or not "is it easy to fit a Heatom counter in a team?" or "is it okay to be forced to play these counters?", but more "is it easy to play around Heatom in a vacuum, and especially if you do not have one of the few dedicated counters?". To that question, I think the answer is no. Let's adress a few points before.
There's two main game paths against Heatom, to simplify :
- If you go for the offensive route, Heatom should be generally fine. It doesn't punish you for running passive grounds and it doesn't have room to accomplish its gameplan long term. Heatom might even have to put itself into undesirable positions due to Overheat drawback, ability to be played around with Sub and such. You just pressure it and if you happen to give it a free turn, the only potential problematic aspect for these teams is getting one of your important mons burnt, like Mudsdale or Rhydon. I think we have enough means to play around that, especially because each set has shortcomings, but it's not always easy and could be considered a bit unhealthy. This guessing game and luring aspect is one of the consequences of a larger problem, that I do not think is too bad for offensive teams and is better illustrated against bulkier teams.
- If you go for a bulkier route (mainly Balance but also BO in some cases), you just accept having to run specific cores or being destroyed by Heatom. If you want to play Palossand, for example, you will be faced with a lot of issues due to passivity, but Heatom is the only one that's actually punishing you this hard, because to beat it you have to rely on having one of the key long term answers, or try to play around its limitations with a lot of guessing games and potential sacking, which is unreliable at best. People usually sum up these counters to Lanturn or Rhydon, sometimes slow Heatom is added (but I think it's very hard to justify nowadays), I want to include stuff like CM Florges, AV Gbro and Snorlax which are more susceptible to Volt Switch but are still abusing Heatom structures and help a lot in general. While I think it's enough counterplay, in reality it's not as easy as you'd think.
That's the thing, Heatom's centralization is revolving around these key mons. This is extremely abusable, and has been what a lot of Heatom teams try to do. You don't play around Heatom specifically, you play around a team designed to make Heatom good. Type spam is one of the first aspects that come to mind, Lazzle + Heatom, Pawmot + Heatom, Kilowattrel + Heatom, they're all common enough cores that are either designed to overwhelm and lure the answer for the other, or try to abuse the lack of an answer forced by the other, or even abuse answers forced by the other. You can also think of mons like Gbro (especially with Toxic) or Bombirdier which are especially good partners to Heatom and force Rhydon and Lanturn to be crippled. Because yes, Rhydon, as good as it is, can be chipped relatively easily, and Lanturn is a mon that can't just be tasked to deal with one mon and will have to take a few hits to do its pivoting job.
This core dynamic is literally the basis of Pokémon, why would it be problematic for Heatom specifically? Because it's the only mon that is able to punish you this hard if you lose your answer, thanks to the ability to sustain itself throughout the game, to abuse a lot of mons who don't do much to it or are pressured due to its typing, to play around would-be-answers via Volt Switch, and simultaneously force a potential crucial burn on something when you already have to play around the dangerous NP set. No other mon has this ability to mandate a counter and make your life hell if you lose it, and thus no other mon can put this much pressure on answers just by its existence. Other mid speed balance breakers like Tatsugiri, Braviary-Hisui, Band/SD Brux, Specs Hyph/Hoopa or Heracross have other limitations that don't allow them to pressure teams throughout the game and do not rely on sole counters, it's more about cores and positiniong. They can't play long term, they have way less defensive utility, they're less punishing to a degree. Even something like Hariyama who is a long term balance breaker with a similar ability to regen itself and pressure counters can be played around more, because it has a worse typing and less reliable regen (and also much worse speed), same for something like NP Mesprit (arguably closest thing to NP Heatom) who is fine enough to deal with because it has weak moves, is super tera reliant and misses on important speed benchmarks that Heatom has.
So why doesn't Heatom win more games if it's really broken/unhealthy? First, it's mainly a builder nightmare, that we've accepted for too long. Heatom doesn't especially shine in practice, because people are prepared too much for it or just play more offensive stuff. While BOs are ultimately better in this meta (I don't think anyone would disagree), I genuinely think it would make the tier better to get rid of Heatom, because it would help a lot for tier variety and allow for bulkier teams to breathe a bit more, it's not like we don't have tons of ways to break these with more strategic/less toxic gameplans.
Second, Heatom is a early/mid game merchant most of the time. Either because its presence is pressuring you to keep your checks healthy, or because it will make a few key plays that will determine the outcome of the game later. Burning your Rhydon so it doesn't do anything the rest of the game, getting an important kill early because it got an NP on a passive mon... I don't think it's really about losing or winning, but about how much pressure it puts, and how it can make a few unhealthy mindgames.
Even if you don't feel like Heatom is too much in game (which I could understand, it can feel disappointing and hard to make work in practice when teams are prepared), you can't deny the impact it has on builder. It's hard to account for it consistently, it's close to impossible to just proof your build to avoid giving it free turns and sometimes you just have to give up and cope with a few tera dragons here and there (which don't actually work most of the time).
Nevertheless, I want to mention that Heatom can also be a positive presence in some ways : it has a cool typing to cover a lot of mons in the tier that would otherwise be much harder to beat. Shaymin, Atales, Venu, Avalugg-Hisui are the main ones, but you can also think of it as a versatile tool that can be used as a general mid speed pivot while blanket checking a few stuff along the way, or trade with tera. I theoretically like long term balance breakers with Pain Split, but Heatom has just the right combination to be too much in general. I can't deny I'm a bit afraid of the consequences of banning it, but it should be fine and it shouldn't be a factor for this decision.
So my final answer is to vote BAN, because Heatom is a centralizing, unhealthy and strong/broken presence both in builder and in game in a way you can't always play around. And while I do not think Heatom is at its prime right now (it was more broken in previous metagames imo), I think Heatom has proven to be unhealthy throughout all of modern PU's existence, in a way it will keep doing in future metagames.