OU Analysis Leads

Brawley

is a Past WCoP Champion
Hi, just putting this here so I don't forgot about it, while update throughout the day.
Here is a list of leads I have encountered in 50 battles in the Standard Ladder.
Bronzong-4
Hippowdon-1
Uxie-1
Heatran-4
Metagross-2
Swampert-3
Gengar-5
Ninjask-2
Yanmega-4
Azelf-7
Blissey-1
Abomasnow-3
Tyranitar-4
Togekiss-2
Aerodactyl-1
Drifbilm-1
Starmie-2
Roserade-2



Now I will watch 25 battles and record both players leads on the Suspect Ladder
Metagross-3
Togekiss-1
Glisor-1
Crobat-2
Azelf-6
Staraptor-1
Bronzong-4
Mesprit-2
Aerodactyl-4
Sharpedo-1
Infernape-3
Yanmega-2
Skarmory-1
Gengar-4
Hippowdon-2
Roserade-1
Jolteon-1
Uxie-1
Dugtrio-1
Swampert-2
Heatran-2
Swellow-1
Dragonote-1
Salamence-2
Gyarados-1

Okay now lets examine some of the most used leads, and why they are used so much!

Azelf

Common Set:
Azelf @focus sash
Naive
Psychic/Fire Blast
Stealth Rock
Explosion
Taunt
The suicide lead Azelf is used most on both ladders and for good reason, it has exceleent speed and attacking stats, making it a quick and hard hitter. This means you can stop you're opponent from setting up rocks and sets up you're own, and you hit them hard with stab psychic or an explosion. Maybe people will start using different virations to surprise people now....

Counters: They're arent really any counters to the set, as it runs focus sash, but I good counter is fake up Infernape/Weavile with focus sash, as you fake out first negating the sash then attack. Tyranitar stops the set well too, as sandstream negates the sash, and dd tar can set up on this most of the time. Heatran/Empoleon barely take any damage from this set as well. Lastly faster taunters make life hard for suicide Azelf.

Bronzong

Common Set:
Bronzong@Leftovers/Lum Berry
252 HP/Defensive evs depending on needs
Defense boosting Nature
Gyro Ball/Earthquake
Hypnosis
Explosion
Stealth Rock
Pretty common lead since the beginning of DP, It just sleeps, sets up rocks, and goes boom, pretty nice and you can save it for later to counter stuff like: deoxys-e, mamoswine, garchomp, etc
Counters: Heatran, Moltres, Skarmory, Infernape, and along with other fires and steels dont really fear this set and can 1hko it or set up on it.

Gengar
No common set as its really unpredictable.
Ah Gengar, A fun lead, unpredictable lead. Gengar has tons of immunities and can switch in and out quite easily, and it has fast sleep. All of these merits contribute to gengar's high lead percentage, as it ca sleep the opponent, or just smack it in the face with a attack coming off of 130 Special Attacker, Gengar is a true threat...
Counters: Lum Berry leads make life hard for Gengar, but other than that snorlax, scizor, heatran, blissey are all solid counters to gengar

Tyranitar
No common set, as it greatly varies.
Is it physical, special, or mixed?!?! Thats what players think when they see Tyranitar, this thing is so unpredictable and hits hard. Increased usuage is because of suicude leads annoying people, and tar negates the sash and can easily kill those annoying pest.
Counters: Bulky Fighting types such as hariyama and machamp can counter tar, other counters are gliscor, scizor, garchomp. But really it depends on the set, but dont worry Tar is slow and has an abondance of weaknesses.

Heatran
Heatran@Life Orb/Choice Scarf
Fire Blast
Stealth Rock/HP Ice
Explosion
Earthpower
Heatran is pretty bulky and hits really hard. It abuses the fire weakness in the metagame and it has a decent powered explosion. Heatran really can switch in easily 1-5 times in a match and mess with you. All reason why he's so common as a lead
Counters: Bulky Waters such as Suicune, Swampert, Vaporeon, Milotic easily switch in and scare heatran away, so does Tyranitar, and the 3 dragons. Heatran has some common weaknesses and average speed so abuse that.

Abomasnow
Abomasnow@Leftovers
252 Hp/20 Special Attack/160 Special Defense/76 Speed
Sassy
Blizzard
Focus Punch
Leech Seed
Substitute
Abomasnow gets the ball rolling for all hail teams, and he hits hard with stab blizzard. He also makes a fine switch in to waters andsome other pokes. These are the reasons he is used as a common lead.
Counters:
Most Steels and Fire Types scare the bricks out of Abomasnow and they switch in quite easiliy, so dont worry too much about countering the snow man.
 
It's interesting that you have only encountered one Bronzong and one Gengar in these ten data points. I had expected their usage to be much higher, though this may simply be statistical noise considering the small amount of data.

Also, I suggest you discriminate between Standard and Suspect ladders, especially if you choose to continue this beyond 50 data points, because it may provide valuable information on how the two metagames differ.
 
I don't think we have reasonably described why certain leads actually lead on a regular basis.

Heatran is a very versatile Pokemon in itself, with game-breaking moves such as Taunt, Stealth Rock, and Explosion. Not only that, but Heatran does not fear other commonly used Pokemon that consistantly lead in a player's team.

Other popular leads have considerable difficulties with Heatran, whether it be they cannot OHKO it before it OHKOs you - Azelf springs to mind, who happens to have more important goals to achieve anyway - or because Heatran simply outspeeds your Pokemon and poses a threat to OHKO it - Bronzong is my first, immediate thought - and forces you to switch out, only to be met witha free Stealth Rock. If you chose to stay in, then unexpectedly your Hypnosis or Stealth Rock may be immobilized through the possiblilty of Heatran using Taunt. A guessing game that, while in fact does not guarantee success, has the potential to suddenly decide the fate of the match.

Let us not forget that Explosion can tear apart the opponent's team by eliminating their bulky Water-type, further allowing you to exploit that gap in the team with your Dragon Dance Salamence that wasn't capable of sweeping before.

Catch those Gyarados off-guard that attempt a Dragon Dance right infront of your face with Will-O-Wisp, and then proceed to switch to another Pokemon without having to risk your Heatran's health so early. This unordinary scenario applies to the likes of Salamence and Dragonite opposition as well.

Choice Scarf leads are certainly uncommon, so to speak, because they are naturally designed Pokemon to revenge-kill those pesky weaknesses that you cannot counter efficiently. However, Heatran (and perhaps there are others) can successfully use Choice Scarf and Stealth Rock on the same set. This strategy is not as expected as the Life Orb / Leftovers varients that lead, but can certainly suprise the opponent as they switch to their bulky Water-type, only to be met with Stealth Rock. Let's recap: we now know their answer to our Heatran and also set-up the incredible Stealth Rock. As too, after our opponent sights Stealth Rock, then Choice Scarf isn't the suspected item anymore, which can then perhaps suprise the opponent later on in the game. For instance, Gengar opposes Heatran and understandably believes that Heatran isn't carrying Choice Scarf as the item, when, in fact, it does, and therefore Fire Blast will OHKO Gengar initially without time for the Gengar to react.
 
Metagross is pretty amazing.

Meteor Mash + Bullet Punch with Lum takes care of Gengar and Azelfs and Aerodactyls with ease, along with Bronzongs with Meteor Mash + Explosion - so the plan is to set up SR and mash them all down. Basically you can beat most suicide leads without setting up sandstorm if your team is that sensitive to it.

I have been seeing a number of Infernape leads as well - most with fake out, some with just a standard mixape set.

I am wondering how useful a Scarf U turn => Tyranitar lead will work since this method also takes down suicide leads and possibly more based on what you have scarfed.
 
Salamence leads are pretty popular - I have seen a lot less Azelf leads lately in favor of stuff like other Metagross/Salamences.
 
Metagross is the lead to beat - it takes down Bronzong, Azelf, Yanmega, Aerodactyl, Gengar (and other fragile leads), Tyrantiar, Abomasnow, Deoxys E leads pretty easily with Meteor Mash, Bullet Punch, and Explosion. I've seen a lot of Metagross lately - I myself use it and so does many players now. Also Expecte metagross to Explode - although the timing may vary. I personally Mash until it is about to die - unless i really want to see the Bronzong gone. I've seen many Gengars switch into Metagross to "absorb" the Explosion many many times.

I've seen a lot of Infernape leads recently - seeing how it also beats Sash, TTar, Bronzong, Abomasnow (but loses to the fragile leads), but also beats Metagross.
 
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