Project OU Puzzle Club - Week 5

TheDuckChris

TheDuckChris

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Welcome to OU Puzzle club, the for-fun thread where we dissect a situation in battle to determine what's going on and find the paths to victory. Each week, I will submit a puzzle consisting of a battle screenshot with some level of known information and open the floor for predictions, analysis, and potential gameplans as if we were the players. At the end of the week I will highlight the best answers and reveal the solutions to the puzzle.

Unlike chess there is not always a one hundred percent right move in pokemon. This exercise is intended to spark discussion and be a fun way to play the game without the timer ticking down. Differing opinions are welcomed, feel free to explain your take!

Rules:
1. If you recognize the situation from a tournament replay or if you have prior knowledge of the teams outside of what is revealed in the puzzle, do not spoil the puzzle for others.
2. You do not have to answer all parts of a puzzle prompt. Incomplete answers or simple guesses are fine.
3. Responding to other player's analyses is allowed, but obviously be nice.

Week 1 - Type: Team Preview - Best Answer: Magcargo - Solution
Week 2 - Type: Path to Victory - Best Answer: Whaloob - Solution
Week 3 - Type: Team Preview - Best Answer: Heatranator - Solution
Week 4 - Type: Team Preview - Best Answer: HydreigonTheChild - Solution
Week 5 - Type: Path to Victory - Best Answer: HydreigonTheChild - Solution
 
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Team 1 sets:
Gliscor could be either sd or spikes, but it is definitely Knock here, Clef is a clef, idt its barb when theres gambit+skarm so def lefties, pult is 100% boots, skarm is likely the rocker if spikes scor or the spiker if scor is sd, additionally rocks on clef if sd scor, gambit is likely a bulky variant, possibly tera dark for breaking power or tera fly, gking could be av or boots but idt it matters too much here.

Team 2 sets:
I'd be unsurprised if this clef was barb, lando is def the rocker so garg is curse, pult is boots, pon is sd to give the team breaking power, tran is tran.

Biggest threats + prediction:
Biggest threat t1 has is hazards, puts a ton of pressure on pon, tran, and garg. Boots pult on t2 goes insane if it can break clefable and gambit, however there's a good chance gambit is teched for dragapult on such an otherwise pult weak team, with lum or tera fire. Dragapult may also be forced to make predictions by the mere presence of the gambit, do you hex scor or wisp the gambit that is likely lum and has to be hit on swap for example. Ogerpon is limited by spikes and dragapult, however with heatran+garg and some pressure it can break the game open. I'd say t2 has the better chances if they can successfully deny hazards, but the spikes immune core of clef, lando, and pult cannot win on its own so it can easily lose if spikes go up and pon/tran get crippled. Heatran and Ogerpon themselves, especially if Heatran catches a wisp aimed at Pon, can pressure both potential spikers fairly well, while Dragapult also beats both and Lando can Taunt, all t2 needs to do to win is not let skarm or scor get up spikes on clef and garg imo.
 
team 1
I’d be shocked if this Gliscor wasn’t Swords Dance. It could be SD Knock/Facade or Knock/EQ. Gliscor also helps slowly break down Gambit’s checks like Zama, Skarm, and Tusk.

Clefable is rocks and Skarm is spikes. Pretty classic hazard stack core. If Gliscor has Facade, then Clef doesn’t need to run Barb, if not, Barb seems to be the likely item of choice. Alternatively, since Clef is with Gking, Clef might be Wishtect. Skarm is likely Tera Dragon for Wogre. Body Press cause otherwise this team’s Gambit matchup is atrocious.

Pult seems to be the standard Boots Hex set.

Gambit might either be Boots or Lefties, but Boots seems likely here. Tera Dark seems likely here since the team doesn’t have immediate power.

Glowking is the standard pivot set with Toxic as the last slot, assuming Gliscor is SD.

team 2
Lando is 99% the rocker, so Clef is Knock + T-Wave or Calm Mind. Clef might also have SpD investment since this team has no good Kyurem switch ins.

Garg is Curse and likely Tera Water or even Electric.

Pult could be Boots, but the team composition might suggest Choice Specs with Clef to switch into Garg and Tran/Wogre to threaten Garg.

Wogre is SD/Ivy/Grass STAB/Encore.

See above for Lando.

Tran is Magma/EP/Taunt with either Protect or Wisp on the last slot. I expect Flame Body with Balloon since the team already has a Fire resist in Garg.

T2 has some volatile mons for T1. Curse Garg can outright sweep this team by itself in the long term, Wogre can pick up a kill or dent a huge threat. Knock + T-Wave looks incredibly annoying for T2.

T2 still has to watch out for hazards since the team doesn’t have removal. Plus if Gliscor is SD, it can do serious damage to this team, but T2 has ways to mitigate it like Wogre.

The winner depends on who will break the opposing team faster, Wogre/Tran/Garg or hazards + SD Gliscor. T2 has to keep hazards off as much as possible and preserve Garg. I’m thinking T2 since they have the most immediate power.
 
Team 1 Analysis:
Team 1 seems like a hazard stack + bootspam type of team.

Skarmory is certainly Spikes + Helmet, Clefable looks to be the Rocks setter + Knock Off user, and Gliscor seems to be an SD win-condition with Tera Normal, Facade / Knock Off / Protect / Swords Dance. Gliscor could also be a pivot or Rocks setter, with clef serving a more utility role with T-Wave + Knock Off to help setup Hexpult later, but Swords Dance Gliscor + Stealth Rock Clefable is the likely combination here. Gliscor is also likely running a specially defensive set to better handle Raging Bolt, while Clefable looks to be running a mixed spread. Skarmory is likely Iron Defense + BP, but other options like whirlwind or Brave Bird can't be discounted.



Dragapult is almost certainly the mixed boots pivot set with Will-O-wisp to better check Zamazenta. Kingambit is very likely heavy-duty boots to serve as the team's Future Sight absorber. I believe Gambit is likely running Iron Head here since Body Press Skarm should handle other gambits just fine unless they are Tera Fairy, Flying, or Ghost, which Kingambit should check just fine. I think Galarian Slowking is running the standard spdef pivoting set with Chilly Reception / Future Sight / Sludge Bomb / Toxic.

Team 2 Analysis:
This structure is somewhat odd to me. Looks like a fatter bulky offense team from initial analysis, featuring no hazard control + Garganacl and Heatran, a combination I'm personally not too fond of. Discerning the sets is difficult.

There is a high chance Lando-T is the Rocker of the team but Psychic to handle hawlucha can't entirely be discounted. I believe Lando-T is running a fast set with Taunt to prevent opposing Rocks which is being used to substitute for removal.

Garganacl is very likely curse to handle opposing bulky teams. Its Tera is likely just Tera Water since Clef is fulfilling the role as the bulky Fairy type.

Heatran is likely running fast Will-O-Wisp to lure Ogerpon-W. My assumption is that it is being used to check Gholdengo and utility Dragapult. I believe its running Magma Storm / Will-O-Wisp / Taunt / Earth Power. Tera type is variable, one of Grass, Ghost, or Fairy most likely. Flame body is likely the ability to punish opposing U-Turn users.

Ogerpon-W is a weird pick on this build. Garganacl should already break balance teams on its own so I am guessing Ogerpon-W is running a utility set. Ivy Cudgel / Grass move / U-turn are guarenteed. I think its running Taunt in the last slot to aid lando-T and Heatran in the rocks prevention effort. Knock Off doesn't make sense here since this team isn't running hazards. Spikes could work, but is also unlikely since Ogerpon-W isn't the greatest setter. Encore is more likely, but I don't think it fits with the team's gameplay.

Dragapult is speed control, but I don't know what set its running. Probably the hexpult set if I had to guess since most of the other Pokemon don't fair particularly well vs ID + BP Zamazenta.

Unsure what clefable's job is on the team as well. I think its safe to assume its running either CM or Knock + T-Wave set with enough special defensive investment to handle Kyurem.

Matchup Analysis:
Assuming team 2 is a Taunt Spam team, I do believe that team 1's gameplan of setting up hazards -> win will be difficult to execute. Assuming Clefable and Skarmory are the entry hazard setters, their main oppurtunities to setup hazards on will be against Clefable and Garganacl. Clefable can also setup Rocks against Dragapult. Ogerpon-W completely trashes on every possible entry hazard setter, as Skarmory cannot safely setup entry hazards against it and is prone to getting shut down by Taunt. Perhaps a Brave bird can threaten Ogerpon-W if it elects to run that, but it still will be weakened to the point where it will be difficult to setup any entry hazards.

Team 2's balance breaker pressure between Garganacl, Ogerpon-W, Hexpult, and Heatran also is difficult to respond to with Team 1. Magma Storm Heatran is threatening a lot of pressure against Team 1 since Taunt will be shutting down possible escape attempts from pivots like Gking or recovery from Clefable. Even gliscor will be taking a hefty chunk from magma storm so it isn't a safe switch in. Tera Water Gliscor can do fine vs Heatran, but Tera Water will excentuate the team's weakness to Garganacl.

CM Clefable does give team 2 a bit of an out if team 1's hazard stack plan succeeds, though Kingambit will be a massive nuisance still. It is prone to SD Gliscor as well, which is the biggest threat against team 2.

If team 1 doesn't keep hazard pressure up, Garganacl winds up being a problem. Clefable can Knock Off Garganacl, perhaps trick it a sticky barb, or lock it in with Encore, but without those options, there is little stopping Garganacl from just setting up 6 Curses, since everything else on the team is prone to Salt Cure chip. If Clefable is Calm Mind though, Garganacl has a harder time.

Team 1 does have tools to keep the match-up fair however. Lando-T's potential Stealth Rock pressure is limited by the bootspam structure + the team having several Knock Off resist. Team 1's Clefable can use Dragapult as an entry point to setup Stealth Rock, which is very annoying for team 1 which wants hazards off at all cost. Future Sight is a powerful tool against Team 2 since they lack real absorbers. Lastly, Gliscor is a very potent force against Team 1, espicially if its Earthquake / Knock Off / Swords Dance / Protect. Longterm, it will beat everything. Defensive sets will arguably be more effective against team 2, as they can Toxic Ogerpon-W or Lando-T on the switch and more reliably setup entry hazards than either Skarmory or Clefable. I see the combination of T-Wave Clefable and Spikes Gliscor in particular being difficult for team 2 to prevent from setting up hazards.

Overall, I think team 2 has the advantage.
 
Duck Chris said:
Snip
Click to expand...
1 is likely SD knock gliscor, standard Gking, rocks knock clef (maybe rocks wish), hex wisp turn pult, spikes idbp skarm, bulky kg.
2 is likely either knock twave clef or knock wish clef, curse garg w tera water, wisp/turn pult, SD encore/pr oger, rocks taunt lando, and offensive taunt/wisp tran.

I think 2 beats 1. Tera water curse garg and Waterpon are both really good into this team. Every defensive piece here gets bodied by Waterpon, and only pult and sucker kg can revenge it. pult can get chipped pretty hard even w encore, and the team has multiple really good pult switchins like tran (assuming not double status) and curse garg. KG can get worn down by burn on tran and pult, and lando is a great swtichin.

1 does have SD scor and fsight + kg which look to be the main ways of making progress into the team, but tran can either trap gking or cripple pult with wisp. As well, SD scor is vulnerable to waterpon and pult, although its probably a more spdef set to help against raging bolt. It also can damage garg, but garg can tera and curse boost to annoy it and deny its healing with salt cure. Overall probably 2, but 1 has outs.
 
The Gliscor is def SD due to the existance of skarmory. It has to be knock gliscor since this team otherwise will not be able to utilise hazards as well. I'm leaning towards it being e-quake since the team looks like it doesn't hit steel types for a lot of damage otherwise besides skarmory, who can't take on the special attacking steels.
My gut says its cm clef, but I think its more of a standard set. I don't think its sticky barb as 1. Skarm can deal with moon decently well and 2. It would impact the rest of the team too harshly. I'd say rocks, moonblast, moonlight and either knock or t-wave. I think its knock moreso though.
The dragapult is for sure a standard boots set. I'd say t-wave, hex, u-turn and dragon darts. Although wisp does look enticing to deal with zama, its not going to help with the heatran matchup, which is a big concern of this team, while still providing utility against zama.
The skarm is a standard spikes, roost, id and bp with helmet.
The gambit is prob boots with tera dark, as the team doesn't have a lot of immediate power. I'd say its a normal set of sd, iron head, kowtow and sucker.
Glowking is the standard set. Toxic, chilly, future sight and sludge bomb.

Clefable will most likely not have rocks due to lando-t being the rocker, so I'd say its sticky barb and knock. I'd say wish+protect to heal teammates as only garg has recovery and a few are weak to hazards if they are knocked off. Moonblast for stab and physically defensive since moon can be a pain if lando goes down.
Since Lando-t is most of the time carrying rocks, we can determine that this is either a curse set or an id+bp set. I am leaning more towards a curse set, since that looks like one of the wincons on the team.
Pult is just a standard boots set, t-wave, u-turn, hex and d-darts.
Waterpon is most likely sd, traiblaze, ivy cudgel and play rough. This team looks like it struggles with HO a bit, and this set eats it up for breakfast.
Lando-t is a standard set, taunt, rocks, earth power and u-turn.
Heatran is most likely a specially defensive variant with wisp, taunt, magma storm and e-power. This does make the team worse against waterpon, but scarf ghold and kyurem looks like a difficult matchup otherwise. I'd say air balloon is the item.

SD Gliscor can win if it gets the pult out and be at high enough health to deal with waterpon. I can also see id skarm winning the game, as lando+clefable can't really touch it. If heatran+pult are out of the picture, it could def be threatening. Hazards are the biggest thing for this team, they don't have too many immunities and said immunties can be overwhelmed by their threats.
Team 2 can win with Heatran as long as gliscor is taken out of the picture and they play carefully around the dragapult t-wave so it can outspeed gambit. They can also win with ogerpon wellspring if they chip dragapult, or the gliscor doesn't pull out a cheeky tera water. Curse garg is another threatening mon, but it is threatened by a lot of the team.
I'd say that Team 2 can win. Yes, SD gliscor is extremely threatening, but it has to get a lot of things right and some things can chip it down in order to not be as much of a threat. Team 2 has a lot more consistent answers, but they do have to play at a fast pace in order for skarm to get up spikes. Heatran is the key to this match.
 
Week 1 Solution - Replay
:Gliscor: Knock / Toxic Spikes / Earthquake / Protect - No SD (almost everyone got this wrong)
:Clefable: Rocks / Wish / Protect / Moonblast @ Sticky Barb
:Dragapult: @ Boots
:Skarmory: Spikes Roost Whirlwind Brave Bird @ Helmet
:Kingambit: Low Kick / SD / Sucker @ Boots
:Slowking: Chilly Reception / Sludge Bomb / Future Sight @ Boots Tera Water
:Clefable: Wish / Knock off / Moonblast / Moonlight @ Likely barb
:Garganacl: Salt Cure / Iron Defence / Body Press / Recover @ Leftovers - everyone predicted curse but it was actually ID
:Dragapult: Hex / U-turn / Wisp @ Boots
:Ogerpon-Wellspring: Ivy Cudgel / U-turn
:Landorus-Therian: Rocks / U-turn / Taunt @ Helmet
:Heatran: Magma Storm / Protect / Earth Power / Wisp @ Leftovers Tera Grass

The match proceeds as many people discussed with Team 1 trying to get up hazards (and succeeding) while the expected Taunt Landorus tries to prevent them. Team 2 really starts applying pressure with heatran as the magma storm set becomes very threatening. Finally garganacl starts to clean up the game vs a clefable that isn't taking much from Body Press. In my opinion Clefable should have won here but misplays by Moonblasting on turn 88 instead of wishing and planks to what looks like a max roll Body Press. With 9 wishes left to Garganacls 5 recovers it seems likely clef could have won this. However overall I think team 2 still had the advantage. Heatran ended up doing a ton of damage with Magma storm and despite not having taunt it pressured the team enough for Garganacl to set up and win. If garg had been curse as most people guessed it would have been an even stronger matchup as salt cure would be doing more than Body Press (probably).

My pick for best answer- Magcargo's Post
This was the only post to correctly guess that Ogerpon was a U-turn set and not an SD set, and also considered the possiblity that Gliscor was not SD for team 1.They also mentioned the possiblity of Brave Bird skarmory which was indeed the case.
Good job overall, most people guessed the rough strokes of how it was going to go. Feel free to disucss the game with all the info revealed, new puzzle monday!
 
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Week 2
9SLXOuf.png


Prompt: Who should win here and how?
Explain your answer by detailing what moves you think each pokemon is running and the best possible plays for each side
- Gholdengo has Nasty Plot and Make It Rain
- Gholdengo took 35% from Primarina Moonblast earlier this game
- Raging Bolt took 29% from Darkrai's Ice Beam (after tera) and did 52% back with Discharge, and then 36% to KO with Thunderclap earlier this game.
- Raging Bolt has leftovers
- Great Tusk and Iron Boulder are both at 100% and have not come in
- Team 2 has not used Tera
nTanTT0.png
 
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Guess


-Ghold clicks Make it Rain which always kills Tera Fairy Bolt here even uninvested. Due to the damage from Moonblast, it’s likely an offensive Ghold.

The game can end in two ways.

Scenario 1: Tusk Headlong Rushes the Ghold or clicks Knock as the save choice. Boulder clicks Tera Fighting or Flying and then sets up a Swords Dance before taking it out.

Scenario 2: Ghold terastilizes and hits Tusk with a meaty MiR. If its Tera Fairy then its unlikely for Ghold to terastilize since Headlong Rush kills at this range, but if its Tera Flying, Tusk takes huge damage. However team 1 can also read that Tera with Ice Spinner which also still kills.

Verdict
Team 1 can very well clutch this with some good plays or well-timed reads, but Team 2 has the advantage here with Tera.

I’m gonna give this one to Team 2
 
Team 2 has this in the bag

Raging Bolt is going to Thunderclap Gholdengo for chip damage, but Gholdengo kills with Make It Rain. Then, Great Tusk will revenge kill with Knock Off, and Iron Boulder switches in. I believe the Great Tusk is the Offensive Utility set with Boots, while the Iron Boulder is Swords Dance Booster Speed, with Tera Fighting. From here, the game is sealed. Iron Boulder uses Tera first turn, setting up a Swords Dance while Great Tusk tries to kill with Headlong Rush. Unfortunately, Iron Boulder survives, and now guarantees a KO with +2 Close Combat, which it does, winning the game.
 
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Just a heads up, the raging bolt is not max special attack. This is because discharge cannot do 52% to a normal darkrai, so its either more physically bulky or fast raging bolt. It's very unlikely that a bolt would invest in more speed, because a speedier bolt doesn't matter as much. This therefore means it has to be physically bulky bolt, and the lefties confirm this more. This would leave it with a spread of 252 defense and 28 special attack evs. It can also be a maximum of 104 special attack evs and 176 defense evs, but that's a really low roll. Since the darkrai calc is correct on normal bolt and adding evs to hp would make this calc less possible, it has to go into defense.

I don't think this would matter much except for in one scenario. Team 1 switches to tusk and gholdengo does make it rain or np's. If they make it rain, tusk with rocks has a 70% chance to live and fire off an attack. (this is assuming ghold is offensive which due to the prim moonblast calc, it most likely is.) The tusk should always click headlong rush. This is because tera fairy always dies to headlong rush and tera flying leaves it weak to thunderclap. From here, there are three scenarios that can occur.

1. Ghold clicks tera fairy (or another neutral tera) and still dies. The boulder comes in and can't kill the tusk from full and dies.
2. Ghold doesn't tera, as Team 1 claims a kill. Boulder comes in and it can never kill tusk. It is forced to tera otherwise it straight up dies and has to take a headlong rush. Even still, this puts it in range of bolt thunderclap and Team 1 wins. Alternatively, tusk is at low health and it is taken out cleanly. It has to sd up in order to ko bolt, but risks getting para'd by discharge. If discharge gets the para, bolt wins if a full para occurs.
3. Ghold clicks tera flying but makes itself weak to bolt's thunderclap. The tusk dies and bolt comes back in. This forces them into tricky 50/50s, but bolt has the advantage. From here, ghold dies and boulder comes in. Boulder cannot ko bolt from full and has to sd up, as two seperate mighty cleaves don't ko bolt, but a +2 one does. (Neutral might cleave does 36% max and +2 cleave does 78% min. No, I do not understand this.) The only way bolt can win is if it gets a lucky discharge para. From here it can fire off another discharge and then thunderclap into a win. However, team 2 has the upper hand. Unfortunately, tera flying ghold is super uncommon, so this scenario is very unlikely.
Option 3 is super unlikely due to Tera flying ghold being really uncommon. Option 1 and 2 are more likely to happen, but both will most likely result in a win for Team 1.

I'm going to go against the tide and say Team 1 wins. Although this is unlikely, Team 1 still has a way to get out. (This may be the weirdest thing I have ever said, but idk man, that darkrai calc made by the bolt looks wrong. I may be massively overselling this though and I'm just dumb).
Edit: Remembered that the calc acts dumb and when inputting +2 it automatically puts booster into attack. Thus, mighty cleave is doing max 71.4%, which means that bolt can always win in scenarios 1 and 3. I will remember in the future to check the calc, sorry for the inconvenience.
 
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Darkrai’s Ice Beam damage, and Raging Bolt’s Discharge damage, is consistent with full investment non-item-boosted Timid Ice Beam from Team 2’s Darkrai against Team 1’s Bold Raging Bolt.

Team 1’s Primarina’s Moonblast damage is too high without a stage boost to be something other than specs, but against offensive Dengo it’d do more than the given 35%, so Team 2’s Dengo is likely physdef (wouldn’t be surprised if it was previously holding a balloon). I’m expecting the standard tera fairy.

Team 2’s Iron Boulder is almost certainly booster energy SD, although there’s a small chance it could be banded if Team 2’s Darkrai was scarfed (which it likely is anyway, lest specs Dragapult shadow balls run over the entire team). I don’t love that alternative though as it leaves the team quite vulnerable to many highly meta threats either immediately or after one turn of setup like Dragapult, Gouging Fire, Roaring Moon, and most sun structures as a whole, so I’m assuming the standard booster speed SD, and again, I’m not seeing any particular reason to deviate from the standard tera fighting.

The biggest question mark is Team 1’s Tusk. The general lack of speed control and the otherwise dreadful Kyurem matchup on Team 1 leads me to believe Team 1’s Gholdengo is likely scarfed, and Tusk could be running booster speed as secondary speed control and bulk up sweeper. It’s probably safe to say it outspeeds Team 2’s Dengo, though.

If Team 2 Dengo Make It Rains, Team 1 Raging Bolt Thunderclap is the best response, bringing Dengo down to 21-27% before dying. Bulk up tusk, whether jolly or impish, nets a likely win, only hard-losing to tera flying zen headbutt boulder and only having to worry about crits otherwise. It can bulk up, take a -1 make it rain, then kill, while being out of range of a zen headbutt even with the defense drop neutralizing the bulk up boost and with max speed max HP, while still being able to kill with headlong rush even through a tera to a ground neutral type. If it’s impish tusk, EQ doesn’t do as much, notably missing the +1 kill on tera fighting Iron Boulder, but it never eats a defense drop from killing Dengo, and still wins with ease. If Tusk lacks bulk up, though, team 1 simply loses this scenario.

That said, if Dengo does not have tera flying Boulder backing it up, Team 2 can opt instead to recover or nasty plot, hoping Raging Bolt wastes a turn thunderclapping. Recover turns out not to be worthwhile as even if you get the turn right, Tusk’s bulk up is necessary for Iron Boulder and boosts eq to kill Dengo from full regardless, so while it doesn’t immediately lose to Discharge from Raging Bolt, MiR is strictly better into discharge, much better into calm mind, and as good into thunderclap practically speaking, so recover is a weakly dominated strategy. Nasty plot on the other hand fares better into thunderclap and still works into CM, living thunderclap by a hair next turn and killing with MiR (with the potential to play thunderclap mindgames to avoid damage entirely, although you lose if bolt CMs again and successfully lands the tclap). Either way, Tusk can no longer bulk up as it dies to +1 MiR, so Iron Boulder comes in on a tusk lacking setup, possibly at -1 def if it’s a HR variant. Tusk additionally doesn’t kill a Dengo that manages to avoid taking a tclap before killing Bolt, unless it’s HR. Unfortunately for team 2, the win still seems to depend on zen headbutt or tera flying, as otherwise, Tusk can bulk up regardless of move chosen by Boulder and kill neutral tera Boulder with headlong rush, while living a +2 CC. The threat of zen headbutt does not motivate tusk to change plans, as there is nothing to be done about zen headbutt at this point assuming ground neutral-to-immune tera.

Finally, Boulder can hard switch on an expected tclap. If it does so successfully it has no trouble setting up a SD as long as it avoids discharge paralysis, and +2 Mighty Cleave will kill. At this point, if facing impish tusk, Team 2 can win with tera fighting CC, preventing bulk up by 2HKOing through it, and then dengo can live an eq to revenge kill if boulder dies to eq after chip from bolt + rocks + defense drop. If facing HR tusk though, this again appears to be losing without zen headbutt.

Team 1 should be favored here; Raging Bolt doesn’t have to play thunderclap mindgames as tusk outspeeds and comfortably RKs dengo and still proceeds to beat boulder if it lacks zen headbutt. The only reason to play tclap mindgames is to reduce Team 2’s wincon to tera flying boulder with zen headbutt, against which tusk can still win if Team 1 successfully predicts the tera turn with ice spinner.
 
Whaloob said:
Team 2’s Dengo is likely physdef (wouldn’t be surprised if it was previously holding a balloon).

Team 1’s Gholdengo is likely scarfed
Click to expand...

Since this information would be revealed at this point in the battle I can tell you that Team 1's Gholdengo was balloon, and Team 2's was neither balloon nor boots.

Also on Darkrai all that is revealed is that it is not boots.
 
Duck Chris said:
Since this information would be revealed at this point in the battle I can tell you that Team 1's Gholdengo was balloon, and Team 2's was neither balloon nor boots.

Also on Darkrai all that is revealed is that it is not boots.
Click to expand...
Ty for confirming! Glad to hear I was right/potentially right on all those sets ;)
 
Week 2 Solution - Replay
I picked this game because I truly did not know the best game plan after watching it, and I wanted to see if people would come up with the plays that the players made, or if there was something better. Here's what happened:

Turn 1
Team 1 switches to Great Tusk, reveals booster speed, and takes 72% from Gholdengo's Make It Rain

Turn 2
Gholdengo terastalizes to a Fairy type, takes 43% from Great Tusk's Headlong Rush, and Recovers to 66%.

Turn 3
Great Tusk Bulk's Up to +1 Atk, +0 def, Gholdengo recovers to full.

Turn 4
Great Tusk Headlong Rush's for 68%, Gholdengo kills with Make It Rain (and drops to -2 SpA)

Turn 5
Gholdengo uses Make It Rain for 45%, Raging Bolt kills with Discharge, leftovers to 21%.

Turn 6
Iron Boulder comes in with booster Speed, Mighty Cleaves for the win.

Analysis
So great tusk was indeed booster speed with Bulk Up and Headlong Rush, seemingly very little attack investment. Gholdengo was physically defensive with Tera Fairy and Recover. Player 1 likely played like Heatranator suggested, which indicates the Raging Bolt was indeed physically defensive and they thought it might be able to deal with Iron Boulder from that health. This explains why they thought they could switch into Great Tusk, eat a hit, weaken or kill ghold, and clean up with Bolt. Player 1 figured bulk up defensive tusk wasn't a threat, and was ready to rely on Ghold to weaken or kill enough things that Iron Boulder could clean up. This indicates that boulder could have had Zen Headbutt.

However here is where I think they messed up. If Bolt just clicks thunderclap on turn 1 it does a minimum of 40%. Ghold is left on 19, well in range of Headlong Rush or even knock off, or ice spinner post tera. (Tusk's coverage moves were never revealed). The Make It Rain damage here is in the roll of 0 SpA Gholdengo, which indicates that a -1 would have only done a max of 50%. So if team 1 simply sacks Bolt, Gholdengo is at 59 (or less if thunderclap connected) and Tusk comes in at 98. One bulk up while Ghold terastalizes and hits Make It Rain for 50 leads tusk at 48 and Ghold goes down. Then IF Iron Boulder has Zen Headbutt, it is a 69% chance to ko tusk at that percentage assuming max hp 0 def, and a 10%chance to miss of course. So an overall 62% chance for team 2 to win even with a max roll Make It Rain.

To me this is team 1's best chance to win. There are some reactive plays each team can make in the Ghold vs Tusk matchup, for example Ghold can click Nasty Plot or something, but overall I think Tusk setting up is the best chance to win there. Knowing that their tusk is weak, taking a full health make it rain is pointless when you can't even clean up properly due to a weak headlong rush and a recovering defensive ghold. If thunderclap connects before Bolt goes down, They are in an even better position, potentially retaining the defence boost from bulk up or something.

Team 2 would still have a fine chance to win in this case assuming they had Zen Headbutt. They could not afford to be too weakened by Bolt, or Bulk Up Tusk can ko without losing it's defence boost, meaning Iron Boulder has no chance. Once Tusk switches in and they correctly note that it is defensive, the recover scenario puts team 2 fully in the driver's seat.

Turn 1 here really is the make or break turn, and in my opinion team 1 got it wrong.
Best answer: Whaloob
Only answer to guess that Gholdengo was physically defensive, and Great Tusk was booster speed bulk up. In this answer, Make It Rain was clicked with the assumption that Boulder is Tera Flying. This would have been an interesting line but i still think it's possible for tusk to win here, and it comes down to Zen Headbutt and Ice Spinner, which feels correct to me. Unfortunately Player 1 did not agree with this line of thinking so the prediction was incorrect.

Feel free to discuss the game, new puzzle tomorrow!
 
Week 3
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Prompt: Which team has the advantage in this battle?
Explain by discussing what sets you think the pokemon are running and what might be the biggest threat to the opposing team.
Hunt: Slowking-Galar has a fourth move that is not listed on any of the standard SV OU smogon sets​
 
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Let's go through the teams and what they look like from preview.

Team 1 seems to be a lead Glimmora HO, with Booster Moth / SD Bulky Gambit based on the team composition. These HO teams usually don't have a defensive backbone or anything as seen here, but they aim to overwhelm the opponent. I believe that the Dragapult could be a physical set considering the fact that the team already has 3 special attackers in Darkrai, Iron Moth, and potentially Kyurem. On this type of HO, I see Darkrai being a Nasty Plot set considering the fact that the team has ways to deal with faster threats thanks to Booster Moth and Sucker Punch on Gambit. I would say the biggest threat here would be Tera Ground Booster Energy Iron Moth, as it easily snowballs here with one Fiery Dance boost and can even beat Luna if it has Energy Ball.

Team 2 appears to be a rather standard Cinderace balance, with Lando-T providing hazards and acting as a soft check to a lot of the metagame. Cinderace is really useful here since it can Court Change Glimmora's hazards if it gets a free turn, making it one of the biggest annoyances to team 1. Zama is also a major threat if it's the AoA set (a bit less so if it's the IDBP set, but still quite big) since it cleaves through the only Fighting answers on team 1 in Moth and Pult. Kyurem is also really good here; there's no Ice resistances aside from the easily chipped Kingambit and Iron Moth, and those get obliterated by Earth Power. Glowking doesn't seem to be doing much in this MU, as quite literally everything on the opposing team can beat it. Finally, Ursaluna appreciates the Thunder Wave support from Glowking but I don't foresee it doing much against HO except trading with something. Overall, I would say team 2's biggest threats are Cinderace and (potentially) AoA Zamazenta (owing to the team's lack of speed control).

In the end, I'd say Team 2 has the advantage. They have the defensive core to withstand most of Team 1's attacks with good positioning, and can turn Glimmora to their side with Court Change if given a free turn. While Team 1 has some big threats like Pult / Booster Moth, team 2 can paralyze / wear them down and eventually win with Zamazenta or consistent unrecoverable damage.
 
Kingambit is most likely a offensive variant with black glasses as its item. Tera dark with a moveset of sd, sucker, kowtow and iron head. Not much more to be said, as while bulky gambit looks nice, offensive gambit is a lot more threatening on these kind of HO teams.
Dragapult is probably the standard focus sash variant with dragon darts, hex, will-o-wisp and thunder wave. While the team does lack some level of physical attackers, this seems more likely as the team already has a lot of setup mons and besides glim, doesn't really have any support mons. The dragapult will still be a good attacker, but it can support the team against stuff like zamazenta, which looks like a difficult matchup otherwise.
Now, most people would probably think that Kyurem is the HDB set, but aside from kingambit and maybe dragapult, this team has a derth of physical attackers. Due to the fast paced nature of this team and glimmora, Kyurem's hazard weakness isn't as pronounced and thus HDB is less worth it. Thus, I think its the DD set, which patches up this weakness nicely on the team. This is most likely the tera ground set to deal with heatran, which otherwise is a difficult matchup for this team.
Iron Moth is going to be a tera fairy dazzling gleam set in my opinion. The team struggles a decent amount with booster speed tusk if they get hazards up, so this set would counter it. The rest of the moves are fiery dance, sludge wave and substitute. There is a possibility it could be energy ball, but sub lets it wittle down zama a lot easier.
Glimmora could either be the meteor beam set or the sash variant. While the meteor beam set does look inticing, I have to go with the focus sash variant. This team really appreciates hazard chip and the focus sash set guarentees that one hazard will go up.
Darkrai is most likely a focus sash variant with nasty plot, ice beam, dark pulse and sludge bomb. Tera poison is the go-to on this set to resist moonblast/cc from valiant and power up sludge bombes power. Tera ghost is also an option, but I find it unlikely.
The most dangerous mon for Team 1 is zamazenta. Besides dragapult, they can't do much to it and if it has a specific tera to deal with pult, it can easily win.

Landorus therian is most likely the standard stealth rocks set with earth power, taunt, u-turn and rocks. Tera type is water as always and the ev spread is more defensive, as otherwise the team is a bit lacking on the physical defensive side.
Cinderace I also believe is an offensive pivot set. It's moves will be pyro ball, court change, sucker punch and u-turn with a tera type of fire. It's item is of course HDB,
Zamazenta I believe is the ID+BP set. While AOA sets do infact give Team 1 trouble, Team 2 doesn't have a lot of setup besides ursaluna, which is unreliable. The speed control of ID+BP zama is more than enough to deal with Team 2's otherwise lacklustre speed. The 2 secondary moves are crunch and heavy slam, with the item being mirror herb. Despite this tech being not as prevelant now, this item helps against setup mons, which are difficult for Team 2, making it the perfect fit for the team. A tera type of steel or fire is probably its option.
Kyurem is most likely the HDB set, which helps with the team's subpar hazard removal due to cinder being the only removal option. The moveset is the standard freeze dry, ice beam, earth power and draco meteor. Tera type of ice to deal even more damage with ice stab.
The glowking is the standard defensive pivot set with future sight, chilly reception, t-wave and sludge bomb. Tera type is water. Not much to be said.
Ursaluna is most likely the standard sd set with sd, facade, headlong and fire punch. Tera type is normal to deal frankly absurd damage to stall teams.
The biggest threat to team 2 is darkrai as only zamazenta outspeeds it and a tera type of either poison or ghost makes zama much less threatening.

I think Team 2 has the advantage. Although Team 1 has ways out of the zama matchup, primarily dragapult, they can't really do much if it has a fire tera type. From here, it can set up and ko most of the team, with only really iron moth having a good shot against it. Glowking can also get a t-wave off in a pinch, especially against darkrai who looks like their main wincon in this match. Iron moth does also look dangerous, but lando-t+glowking can deal with it. Ursaluna can take one important ko to lessen up the pressure, with its sacking not being the worst thing here, and kyurem is going to dent something for big damage.
Edit: I accidently found the match lmao, wasn't even trying to. But I won't spoil it, that would just be unfair.
 
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Duck Chris said:
Extending this week as I am busy getting married but I will drop a hint:

Slowking-Galar has a fourth move that is not listed on any of the standard SV OU smogon sets
Click to expand...

Forgot to post earlier but,
it is very obviously a semiroom team with slow kyurem and trick room glowking. Ursaluna goes kinda crazy in this matchup so I think the semiroom wins
 
The Glowking team looks like a standard build of pivots getting in breakers, but it has a wrinkle that would destroy the first team. If that team has that wrinkle (and I thought so before the hint but even more sure now), Team Glowking wins.

Glowking uses Trick Room and Ursaluna goes ham.
 
Week 3 Solution - Replay
:Landorus-Therian: - Earth Power / U-turn Tera Water
:Cinderace: Sucker Punch / U-turn
:Zamazenta: @ Leftovers - Body Press / Roar / Crunch / Iron Defence
:Kyurem: - Earth Power
:Slowking-Galar: @ Lagging Tail - Trick / Trick Room / Chilly Reception / Sludge Bomb
:Ursaluna: @ Flame Orb - Headlong Rush / Facade
:Kingambit: - Iron Head / Sucker Punch
:Dragapult: @ Focus Sash - Thunder Wave / Draco Meteor
:Kyurem: @ Loaded Dice - Dragon Dance / Icicle Spear
:Iron Moth: @ Booster Energy - Substitute / Fiery Dance / Dazzling Gleam Tera Ghost
:Glimmora: @ Red Card
:Darkrai: - Focus Blast / Dark Pulse

The match begins with sucker punch Cinderace against sash Dragapult, with pult getting off a helpful thunder wave for free. After some Glimmora based pivoting, DD Kyurem hits hard with a +1 icicle spear for 52% on the incoming +1 defence Zamazenta. Unwilling to risk it, Team 2 switches out for some more glimmora pivoting. Unfortunately this lets in Slowking-Galar which promptly clicks trick room. Ursaluna takes out pult and Kyurem before trick room expires, leaving team 1 in a good spot.

Then team 2 punches back with the ever threatening Darkrai, forcing Landorus to tera water and eat a dark pulse just to pivot out and luckily crit for 74%. Darkrai still surives another sucker from Cinderace, taking it out and bringing Landorus to 4% before going down. After some more back and forth Team 2 brings out Iron Moth on a body press.

This I believe was a mistake. Iron Moth at fully health with tera intact probably could have set up and won vs the remaining three pokemon on team 1s side. However, Roar from Zamazenta clears the speed boost, and trick lagging tail from slowking nails in the coffin. After the wallbreaking from Kingambit, Kyurem and Darkrai, sub Tera Ghost Iron Moth was ready to clean up. On team 1s side, having Zamazenta at mid percent was seemingly just enough to clutch out the game, with their techs in Roar and Lagging Tail + Trick coming in super clutch in the endgame.

My pick for best answer - Heatranator's Post
Despite not getting the Trick Room slowking, the general beats of the battle are predicted correctly. Sash Dragapult, Sub Iron Moth with Dazzling Gleam, and DD Kyurem are the main threats, with Zamazenta identified as the biggest problem. On the other side, sucker punch cinderace and tera water Landorus were both correct, and while the Zamazenta set was not quite right, it was still packing something to help with opposing setup, it was just roar instead of mirror herb.
 
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