Ever since the announcement of Isle of Armor and Crown Tundra, the two Expansion Passes for Sword and Shield that in conjunction promise to add 200+ old Pokemon back to the games as a free update including formerly snapped cornerstones like Garchomp, Landorus, the Tapus and Chansey, I've been noticing a bit of a dilemma has been caused by this major news. The current framework and timeline for SWSH tiers was built under the assumption the current Galar Pokedex + the handful of foreign Pokemon found in the code would be all that would ever be available for use. But now with these big updates on the horizon that are sure to cause titanic shake-ups and dramatically raise the average power level of all the main tiers (particular Crown Tundra, which'll seemingly bring back just about every old legendary), there is now an unforeseen motivation issue for the development of our current metas. After all, what's the point of learning the current main formats, building up resources and developing them further when we're essentially going to have to start from scratch within half a year?
In the past we have had to deal with "enhanced editions" and other games in a generation like Ultra Sun and Moon and Omega Ruby and Alpha Sapphire adding in move tutors, sometimes a handful of new Pokemon and forms as well. We have also had brief metas like the pre-Bank XY and SM formats where we were temporarily constrained to the regional Pokedexes before we could bring in everything else. But these Expansion Passes largely throw these precedents out of the window: New games within a generation have never added literally hundreds of Pokemon old and new at once (except for one instance, but we'll talk about that later), and while this can be compared to the transition between pre and post-Bank metagames, there are two major differences: The time spent and what is being added.
Before the release of Pokemon Bank for Gens 6 and 7, there was only roughly 2-3 months of waiting before the software released for those gens and we could import the old Pokemon in. In addition, due to knowing for sure everything not already in their Regional Pokedexes would return, we could already begin operating post-Bank formats to at least get a pretty good idea of how the metagames would shape after that service released. Compare this to the wait for these DLCs: 7 months for Isle of Armor if counted from the time of Sword and Shield's release and over a year until Crown Tundra if counted from that same time. That is far more time being pumped into what are essentially temporary metas that are doomed to be scrapped. In addition, since only a certain selection of new Pokemon are being added (which ones precisely being currently unknown) rather than everybody, as well as having to factor in TRs AND move tutors that are set to be added, we can't possibly engineer a traditional preliminary post-DLC OU unless there were to be big leaks for both DLCs well before launch. And this may be far from the last time we have to deal with a tricky scenario: Dexit will likely never be fully repealed, and if these sorts of DLC that in a borderline unmanageable amount of things at once become the new norm rather than traditional third versions. If this formula repeats, from this point on forth we could have to deal with longer than normal "dead zones" where the launch meta is basically irrelevant as we wait with bated breath for the DLCs to come months-a year down the road so we can play the "real" OU meta, now with less time to properly tier due to the prolonged wait. And none of that's not even going into how these updates could upset bans from the pre-DLC metas that may have to be retested (e.g. UU seeing a big power level increase post-DLC and having to worry about debating retesting stuff like Crawdaunt and Obstagoon).
So, here we are with a Sword and Shield tiers that essentially have an expiration date, said date causing great discouragement among players. Now, there's two big questions to be asked here.
1. Is this really a problem we should try to figure out a "solution" to?
I've rambled on about how the problems these new circumstances cause for Smogon players and how there's a good likelihood this could be our new normal now and far into the future, but at the same time I understand that not everybody else may feel that way. Some may say "Hey, that's the game we play, nothing we can do about it", that it's fine for there to be gigantic shake-ups in the middle of the generation that essentially recreate the tiers for that generation. Again, I can sympathize with these feelings: It is pretty cool to have these DLCs around to help bring new life to what could be considered stale metas. At the same time I do not think this response adequately addresses the aforementioned prolonged "dead zone" problem and how it saps player motivation for a good part of the generation and leaves the other part with less time to do tiering stuff. That said, if you feel that it's really not a big deal, that this is all making a mountain of a molehill and that we'll manage fine please say so.
2. If we recognize this as a big enough problem, how do we solve it?
Now, we obviously can't change the future, nor can we ignore new Pokemon and other developments for the sake of preserving what we currently have. With that in mind, there's a couple of things we could potentially do to lessen the blow of these updates:
In the past we have had to deal with "enhanced editions" and other games in a generation like Ultra Sun and Moon and Omega Ruby and Alpha Sapphire adding in move tutors, sometimes a handful of new Pokemon and forms as well. We have also had brief metas like the pre-Bank XY and SM formats where we were temporarily constrained to the regional Pokedexes before we could bring in everything else. But these Expansion Passes largely throw these precedents out of the window: New games within a generation have never added literally hundreds of Pokemon old and new at once (except for one instance, but we'll talk about that later), and while this can be compared to the transition between pre and post-Bank metagames, there are two major differences: The time spent and what is being added.
Before the release of Pokemon Bank for Gens 6 and 7, there was only roughly 2-3 months of waiting before the software released for those gens and we could import the old Pokemon in. In addition, due to knowing for sure everything not already in their Regional Pokedexes would return, we could already begin operating post-Bank formats to at least get a pretty good idea of how the metagames would shape after that service released. Compare this to the wait for these DLCs: 7 months for Isle of Armor if counted from the time of Sword and Shield's release and over a year until Crown Tundra if counted from that same time. That is far more time being pumped into what are essentially temporary metas that are doomed to be scrapped. In addition, since only a certain selection of new Pokemon are being added (which ones precisely being currently unknown) rather than everybody, as well as having to factor in TRs AND move tutors that are set to be added, we can't possibly engineer a traditional preliminary post-DLC OU unless there were to be big leaks for both DLCs well before launch. And this may be far from the last time we have to deal with a tricky scenario: Dexit will likely never be fully repealed, and if these sorts of DLC that in a borderline unmanageable amount of things at once become the new norm rather than traditional third versions. If this formula repeats, from this point on forth we could have to deal with longer than normal "dead zones" where the launch meta is basically irrelevant as we wait with bated breath for the DLCs to come months-a year down the road so we can play the "real" OU meta, now with less time to properly tier due to the prolonged wait. And none of that's not even going into how these updates could upset bans from the pre-DLC metas that may have to be retested (e.g. UU seeing a big power level increase post-DLC and having to worry about debating retesting stuff like Crawdaunt and Obstagoon).
So, here we are with a Sword and Shield tiers that essentially have an expiration date, said date causing great discouragement among players. Now, there's two big questions to be asked here.
1. Is this really a problem we should try to figure out a "solution" to?
I've rambled on about how the problems these new circumstances cause for Smogon players and how there's a good likelihood this could be our new normal now and far into the future, but at the same time I understand that not everybody else may feel that way. Some may say "Hey, that's the game we play, nothing we can do about it", that it's fine for there to be gigantic shake-ups in the middle of the generation that essentially recreate the tiers for that generation. Again, I can sympathize with these feelings: It is pretty cool to have these DLCs around to help bring new life to what could be considered stale metas. At the same time I do not think this response adequately addresses the aforementioned prolonged "dead zone" problem and how it saps player motivation for a good part of the generation and leaves the other part with less time to do tiering stuff. That said, if you feel that it's really not a big deal, that this is all making a mountain of a molehill and that we'll manage fine please say so.
2. If we recognize this as a big enough problem, how do we solve it?
Now, we obviously can't change the future, nor can we ignore new Pokemon and other developments for the sake of preserving what we currently have. With that in mind, there's a couple of things we could potentially do to lessen the blow of these updates:
- Delay the formation of lower tiers. This option would entail waiting a certain period of time after a new generation's launch for any word on DLC. If nothing is announced within that timeframe, we begin forming the tiers. If something is announced, we delay it all right until the relevant DLC(s) are released. This could be a very controversial choice for lower tiers themselves and I frankly don't except this to be taken all that well, but it would help alleviate the early problem of tiering choices made in the pre-DLC meta(s) becoming outdated post-DLC when the meta becomes strong enough to deal with what was formerly too powerful
- Create live-updated post-DLC OU formats pre-release. Basically take everything we currently know about what will be added, what moves will be given to what old Pokemon, so on and so forth and then update it as new information is given. There would obviously be differences pre and post-DLC launch, but it would at least give us a remote idea of what we can expect and make the transition just a bit less jarring.
- Try to preserve the pre-DLC metagames. I feel this is probably the most realistic option. Basically, consider them like old gens: Lock the tiers after the DLCs are launched, and then keep them alive via tournaments, occasional retroactive bans and unbans, so on and so forth. The playerbases would obviously be much smaller, but it would make sure the months upon months of old meta development wasn't entirely in vain. More than anything, however, there actually is precedent for doing this: RSE 200. Way back when the ancient-ass sims were a thing (idk if i'm getting this all right im a zoomer lol), the first ADV metas were implemented factoring in only Ruby and Sapphire, not FRLG and Emerald which added in TONS more old-gen mons and move tutor moves. After those came out, RSE 200 was conceived to keep around the original metagame. There's obviously some differences here, but there's also some striking similarities between the circumstances that led to the creation of RSE 200 and what we're dealing with now, notably the sudden additions of tons of old Pokemon.
- I dunno, come up with ideas! This is a pretty unusual circumstance that we almost certainly will have to deal with again in the future, so I feel it's best you drop in your suggestions and inquiries into the pool.
