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(BW OU) Preview Analysis: A Guide to Starting the Game Right
Huge thanks to Finchinator and Shoka for providing the analyses in this thread.
Also huge thanks to xJoelituh, Ununhexium, and Meridian for helping compile the example previews.
Support for this thread came from the Finchinator Foundation, and viewers like you, thank you!
(BW OU) Preview Analysis: A Guide to Starting the Game Right
Huge thanks to Finchinator and Shoka for providing the analyses in this thread.
Also huge thanks to xJoelituh, Ununhexium, and Meridian for helping compile the example previews.
Support for this thread came from the Finchinator Foundation, and viewers like you, thank you!
Upon the arrival of Black and White, some major changes to how the game was going to be played on Smogon was almost a guarantee. With the new meta delivered, a prompt change to how each battle is started followed. Previous generations featured a lead. The first Pokemon in the team would always start the game while the rest were hidden away in their Poké Balls to be revealed as the game progressed. But with the Pokédex size maxed at 649 Pokemon after the release of Black and White, the wide variety of options created matchup problems for teams. Thus a major change to how the game began was made: the team preview. As many know well, from Generation 5 and on players are permitted to see the opponents team in the preview and choose their lead. Previous generations designated "leads" were key to starting the game right, but with the ability to view your opponents 6 Pokemon of choice and choose which member of your team is going face off in the beginning creates a very different situation to how the game is started from previous generations. This screen creates a situation where players can analyze their opponent and devise an initial course of action. This guide serves to teach new BW players how to utilize the team preview to your fullest advantage and start the game off right.
Starting With Your Best Foot Forward
When the match begins, it's wise to utilize your time developing your initial strategy. Right from the start you want to analyze the synergy of your opponent's team and look for gaps your team would be capable of exploiting. What do you see as the best starting strategy? What does your opponent have that poses a major threat? This guide will break down what to look for later on. There are a few things a player should accomplish during the preview screen: Assess the overall strength the team and guesstimate the items opponents team (who has the scarf? etc); identify your initial game strategy ex. he has two physical walls so the initial to chip away at his Ferrothorn and Landorus-Therian so my scarf Garchomp can sweep; Identify threats his team has so you know what members of his team you will need to conserve; and lastly select your lead. Your lead should be flexible, generally players will lead with a Stealth Rock setter or a Pivot allowing them to adapt on the fly to their opponents initial strategy. Always be flexible in your assessment, don't fully commit to an opponents Pokemon being a certain set based on your deduction alone.
Terminology Explanations:
Momentum: This refers to who is dictating the pace and plays of the game. A player has momentum when he is the one making plays and his opponent is reacting. You have momentum when your moves are evoking a reactionary response. You don't have momentum when you're constantly forced to respond to your opponent's moves.
NOTE: For this thread I attempted to link the Smogon analysis of the Pokemon sets being talked about in case a reader is unfamiliar with what set is being mentioned. A good exercise for newer players is too examine the team we give you; then examine the screenshot, and try to formulate your own plan and strategy and analyze the opponents team. After that, read the analysis's provided to see what they did differently.
TEAM I
Team 1: Example Analysis I
Team Assessment:Tyranitar @ Chople Berry
Ability: Sand Stream
EVs: 252 HP / 68 Atk / 188 SpD
Careful Nature
- Stealth Rock
- Earthquake
- Pursuit
- Crunch
Magnezone @ Leftovers
Ability: Magnet Pull
EVs: 76 HP / 252 SpA / 180 Spe
Modest Nature
IVs: 2 Atk / 30 SpA / 30 Spe
- Substitute
- Thunderbolt
- Flash Cannon
- Hidden Power [Fire]
Latios (M) @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Levitate
EVs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Draco Meteor
- Trick
- Surf
- Recover
Scizor @ Leftovers
Ability: Technician
EVs: 252 HP / 12 Def / 244 SpD
Careful Nature
- U-turn
- Bullet Punch
- Swords Dance
- Roost
Celebi @ Leftovers
Ability: Natural Cure
EVs: 252 HP / 236 SpD / 20 Spe
Calm Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Giga Drain
- Recover
- Baton Pass
- Psychic
Landorus-Therian (M) @ Leftovers
Ability: Intimidate
EVs: 72 HP / 252 Atk / 4 SpA / 180 Spe
Naughty Nature
- Rock Polish
- Earthquake
- Stone Edge
- Hidden Power [Ice]
Ability: Sand Stream
EVs: 252 HP / 68 Atk / 188 SpD
Careful Nature
- Stealth Rock
- Earthquake
- Pursuit
- Crunch
Magnezone @ Leftovers
Ability: Magnet Pull
EVs: 76 HP / 252 SpA / 180 Spe
Modest Nature
IVs: 2 Atk / 30 SpA / 30 Spe
- Substitute
- Thunderbolt
- Flash Cannon
- Hidden Power [Fire]
Latios (M) @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Levitate
EVs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Draco Meteor
- Trick
- Surf
- Recover
Scizor @ Leftovers
Ability: Technician
EVs: 252 HP / 12 Def / 244 SpD
Careful Nature
- U-turn
- Bullet Punch
- Swords Dance
- Roost
Celebi @ Leftovers
Ability: Natural Cure
EVs: 252 HP / 236 SpD / 20 Spe
Calm Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Giga Drain
- Recover
- Baton Pass
- Psychic
Landorus-Therian (M) @ Leftovers
Ability: Intimidate
EVs: 72 HP / 252 Atk / 4 SpA / 180 Spe
Naughty Nature
- Rock Polish
- Earthquake
- Stone Edge
- Hidden Power [Ice]
Team 1: Example Analysis I
Shoka: I think that it's important be quite flexible in terms of team reading. Rain teams in general don't afford the creativity that say a sand would in choice of viable Pokemon with out a sacrifice to the team's integrity and/or capability. When analyzing a rain team, it's the sets that are primarily responsible for the variation that differentiates one rain build from another. This testifies to the importance of set scouting in the early game. I need to look for what Pokemon have passive Leftovers recovery, Life Orb recoil, or who is hitting extremely hard, indicating a Choice item. His attack had recoil, so he is has the Life Orb. With that said, a brief glance of the preview, and already two major threats stand out: Garchomp and Tornadus. Analyzing the former; it is very likely that Garchomp is a Sword Dance set with either the Yache berry or Lum berry; he could be utilized as the Stealth Rock setter, but that is dependent on Ferrothorn's four moves. While it is possible that he has the Choice Scarf, it is not probable. It doesn't make a lot of sense that for him to have the Scarf in that speed tier, as his Tentacruel already checks Volcarona. Regardless, I will have to approach him with caution and not assume his item, unless empirical evidences proves him to not be scarf. As for the next major threat, Tornadus, it seems most likely that he is Choice Specs but again, it wouldn't be surprising for Tornadus to be a mixed attacker variant with Superpower which would prove troublesome. I need to be wary when set scouting him that I am not tricked by the Sharp Beak, which could feint being Choice Specs (neither item has recoil/draw backs; after one hit I should be able to tell what item he has based off power alone. If not, look for the usage of two different moves used in the same period ie: Tornadus comes in, uses Hurricane, no Leftovers recovery or Life Orb recoil, Tornadus next turn uses U-turn, therefore he is Sharp Beak). As for the rest of the team, I can also speculate on Latios's and Politoed's sets, but there is no advantage to speculation. I will react and counter in the same manner regardless of the set.
Initial Strategy:
Shoka: Landorus-Therian is our win-con. His presence is huge. If I can trap his Ferrothorn and Latios then I have opened up the game for Landorus-Therian to clean. Throughout the game I can utilize Scizor's U-turn and Celebi's Baton Pass to build momentum, forcing my opponent to play reactively, while potentially bringing in, at the very least, his Ferrothorn to be trapped (hopefully his Ferrothorn isn't the Worry Seed variant, that would be an unpleasant surprise). Analyzing my opponent's lead possibilities, it is clear he is limited in his choices of leads. He can't start with four members of the team (Ferrothorn, Tentacruel, Latios or Politoed) due to the answers I have for them. If he did lead with any of these four he would sacrifice early game momentum, which, given his team, is essential. This leads us to believe he only has two good choices to lead with: Garchomp or Tornadus. Having deduced this a simple choice for my lead is simple: Scarf Latios. I stand with nothing to lose from leading with Latios, as he out-speeds our opponents team (bar the opposing Latios possesses a Choice Scarf as well), and sets him on the back-foot instantly. From there, I will look to apply pressure, and dictate the tempo of the game with my pivots, preventing our opponent to get a foothold in the game.
Team 1: Example Analysis II
Team Assessment:
Shoka: This team looks very unsurprising as in there are probably few tricks up its sleeve. Unsurprising ins't bad, standard is standard due to consistency it grants. For four of his team members: Breloom, Politoed, Excadrill and Latios, I don't need to be concerned with what sets they have; I have the appropriate checks and counters for them. Deducing their sets is not going to yield us an advantage or change my strategy either. I have safe checks to these four Pokemon. With that said, there is a 21' long, 520 pound threat here: Gyarados. His presence is going to require our full attention. To compound our worries, he is most likely a bulky Substitute Dragon Dance set. Given this likely hood, he can easily break our team apart here if I am not careful. There are, though, other options for the set, such as the Choice Scarf set that looks to snowball through opposing teams with Moxie boosts. This is a mundane option and if it just so happens to be Choice Scarf, then problem can be easily mitigated. Regardless, for the other team member's sets I have clear and safe options for each one, bar Gyarados.
Initial Strategy:
Shoka: I can't stress enough the threat Gyarados poses if he can get to +1 behind a Substitute. If I can win the weather war, then I can passively break down Gyarados due to his lack of recovery. My own Scizor poses problems since Gyarados will look to set up on him, so I will need to keep U-Turning to prevent the opportunity for Gyarados to come in on Scizor in a 1v1 and set up. Our Celebi is huge here, due to his ability to wall most of the opposing team. The biggest threat to Celebi, though, is entry hazards wearing him down. It's imperative I minimize the number Ferrothorn's turns. Each turn Ferrothorn will get is an extra layer of spikes that I can't clear and have to deal with through out the game. Say our opponent is allowed to set hazards, he could then break down Celebi by forcing him in and double switching into Gyarados. As for how our opponent will lead, I can expect Ferrothorn, Excadrill, or Politoed. None would leave him at a true disadvantage, though I would rule Ferrothorn out as an unlikely lead due to the threat of our Magnezone. As for how I will start the game, I could lead Magnezone. Nothing stands to be lost and can actually gain a huge advantage on the off chance Ferrothorn is lead. This game his Excadrill can put huge amount of pressure on me, preventing Stealth Rock from going up and dishing out huge hits with Iron Head. Therefore this game needs to be played slowly: first take down Ferrothorn with Magnezone and trap Latios with Tyranitar. After that Celebi will pretty much take down the rest of the team excluding Gyarados. Gyarados will require some pivoting and double switches to mitigate his lurking presence. Bringing our own Latios post Ferrothorn trap, will help put immense pressure on our opponent as well, since his main Draco Meteor tank out of the picture.
Team 1: Example Analysis III
Team Assessment:
Shoka: At a first glance, I notice my opponent is very Volcarona weak. While I don't have a Volcarona with me (how unfortunate), this information is still beneficial, as it indicates that his Garchomp likely has a Choice Scarf (which is a solid Volcarona counter). From there I can deduce that Jirachi is the Stealth Rock lead set (because only him and Garchomp learn the move. If Garchomp is scarf then Jirachi will be Stealth Rock), Latios has Choice Specs (teams like this, look to pack as much power as possible, so Latios likely has Choice Specs), Magnezone is Sunny Day + Hidden Power Fire, Kyurem-Black is Choice Band (for the same reason as Latios), and Reuniclus is most likely the Trick Room set with the Life Orb (Trick room lets him turn his sluggish speed into an advantage and clean late game). Now while these are all sensible choices for the sets, I can't play the game with these sets guaranteed. There could always be a variation; players are always trying to find new sets and tricks to break existing formulas. This game though, given the team I am facing, will have some crucial early turns that can decide the match, therefore my strategy is more important than knowing the sets.
Initial Strategy:
Shoka: Just looking at the opposing team it's very clear that it's designed to punish any mistakes I make. It's imperative that from turn one I not let him dictate how this game will be played. Our Scizor is looking to have an important part granted I am able to remove his Magezone and Jirachi. Same the same can be said with our Latios, who outspeeds his entire team bar his Latios has an unlikely Choice Scarf. His Jirachi is the go to Draco Meteor tank and it's very likely he doesn't have a form of recovery be it Leftovers or Wish. This would let me apply immense pressure on his Steel types with out fear of being trapped, gradually breaking them down. Choosing my lead to this game is tricky; one mistake could easily put me at an insurmountable deficit. Our opponent will most likely start with Jirachi, Garchomp, or Magnezone. Knowing that, the best lead would be our own Magnezone, Latios, or Landorus-Therain. Personally, I would go with my gut and say Jirachi has Stealth Rocks, so I will lead with my Magnezone. I have chosen my lead, now depending on his choice of lead, there are some scenarios that I should expect and play out. If he does lead Jirachi, he will get Stealth Rocks up, but I have his primary Draco Meteor tank removed, altogether, an acceptable trade. If you end up with Magnezone vs Magnezone, it's an acceptable trade, as it removes one of his Steels ceding space for Latios and breathing room for Scizor to operate. If my opponent leads with Garchomp, then I will have some bold decisions to make. A risky swap to our Latios should be considered as he will most likely lay Stealth Rocks or Swords Dance, maybe even go for the Earthquake on our own Magnezone. The likely hood he will Outrage on turn one is a minimal. Regardless, it is imperative to understand the outcome of this game hinges on how the early turns are played.
Team 1: Example Analysis IV
Team Assessment:
Shoka: Our opponent has a great match up here. At first glance, I do have some solid answers to what he brought, but his Heatran and Mew certainly pose a grave threat. My team only has two swaps that can take a Lava plume or Fire blast: Latios and Tyranitar, and he has hard answers to both with his Breloom and Tyranitar. My Tyranitar does have Earthquake but should his Heatran burn or toxic our Tyranitar, he can proceed to stall Tyranitar out with little trouble. This is further compounded by the high burn rate on Lava Plume (which Heatran most likely has). His Landorus is likely Choice Scarf. This would make sense, as it increases the speed capabilities of his otherwise slow team. His Heatran likely the substitute protect variant. Who has Stealth Rocks is a hard guess as well, given that four of his team members can lay rocks. The most probable are his own Tyranitar and Heatran. Mew would be a poor Stealth Rock choice (to be effective, Mew needs Taunt, Will o Wisp, Roost, and Ice Beam. With out any one of those four, he becomes very easy to deal with), and Landous-Therian is likely scarfed. I would guess it is Tyranitar. His Mew is very threatening. No let me rephrase here, his Mew is kryptonite to my team. Generally there is only one set Mew runs: Stallbreaker Mew. Just with this one set, he effectively beats most of our team in a one on one through Will o Wisp burns, then stalling with Roost. Our most potent hits he can easily Roost off the damage and stall us out. The only way I can take him is if he tanks a hit on the swap, or is tricked the Choice Scarf from Latios. Both Breloom and Starmie are of little concern, since Celebi can hard wall them.
Initial Strategy:
Shoka: Since I can guess with high certainty Mew's set, early in this game, my goal is to figure out the Heatran set; is he scarf? Is he balloon? Is he a substitute protect?. The first two can be broken down through Stealth Rock alone, due to no recovery (granted he doesn't spin). The last set can be dealt with by getting him in a one on one with either Landorus-Therian or Tyranitar later in the game. My Landorus-Therian is threatening, but he has some good answers to it. Mew will take less than 45% on from an Earthquake on Landorus, and can outspeed and burn our Scizor, then proceed to stall him out. How will he lead? Well either Mew or Heatran are the best bet. Mew can be used to prevent Stealth Rocks being put on the field and Will o Wisp us. Heatran could also lead, but unlike Heatran, by leading Mew, he has nothing to lose. I can't beat Mew in a 1v1. With Mew most likely being his lead, I am not left with many good options for leading this game. I can't lead Latios, due to his Tyranitar. Scizor would be a bad option as well, considering he would likely lead Mew. If I lead Magnezone, it won't accomplish much, and I just end up with a Taunt + Burn on Magnezone. Leading my own Tyranitar would be a gamble that I won't entertain (the gamble is he misses the Wisp or for some reason leads Heatran). Celebi is our best bet, he can buy time vs that Mew. One thing to be careful of is a taunt then switch to Tyranitar (no Baton Pass allows us to get Pursuit trapped). Losing Celebi early would be unfortunate, but it would give more freedom for Latios to spam Draco Meteors (While Tyranitar can easily 1v1 our Celebi, it comes at a cost). A huge factor to this game will be Stealth Rocks. If I can get them up, I can wear down mew through offensive pressure. Stealth Rock will also allow us to 2HKO his Mew. This game will be very momentum heavy, I will need to always put pressure on his team so Mew can't come in freely. It will require a lot of doubles, and abusing U-turn and Baton Pass to stay in the lead. Truth be told, this is very hard match up, and in the end all I can do is give it my best.
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