RoAPL RoAPL XI - Week Four

Vertigo

Vertigo

new weapons, same war
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>>Spreadsheet<<
Courtesy of Vertigoat
>>Replays and Usage<<

:reuniclus: Realm Ruination Reunicluses (0) vs (1) Violet Vaporeons :vaporeon:
ORAS OU (Bo3): Always! vs Metallica126
ORAS OU (Bo1): Destro16 vs Indulge in dreams
BW OU (Bo3): evakiyama! vs Quarante8
BW OU (Bo1): Duke Sux vs magialice
DPP OU (Bo3): pixie909 vs SFG
DPP OU (Bo3): Gtcha vs elodin
ADV OU (Bo3): Pak vs EG Jhonx~
ADV OU (Bo1): Johnald vs CyberOdin✝
GSC OU (Bo3): RealJester vs GLFGno7
GSC OU (Bo1): OmBrArch vs CrossHeart
RBY OU (Bo3): Texas Cloverleaf vs Unowndragon
RBY OU (Bo3): GirlsSeeGhosts vs kjdaas

:banette: The Banette Bachelors (1) vs (3) Jersey Shore Slowpokes :slowpoke:
ORAS OU (Bo3): watashi vs devin
ORAS OU (Bo1): Savouras vs BluBirD
BW OU (Bo3): BLJ mario vs Dusk
BW OU (Bo1): Fusien vs Sossa
DPP OU (Bo3): lighthouses vs Tizio Potente Ao
DPP OU (Bo3): Sheik : vs Plague
ADV OU (Bo3): robjr vs mielke
ADV OU (Bo1): Colteor vs mayopockets
GSC OU (Bo3): NotVeryCake vs Tenebricite
GSC OU (Bo1): Rubyblood vs hybone
RBY OU (Bo3): oakdeon vs violet river
RBY OU (Bo3): oligen1 vs Melbelle

:yanma: New York Yanma (1) vs (0) Mauville Magnetons :magneton:
ORAS OU (Bo3): kingofking vs Stories
ORAS OU (Bo1): Drachenkeule vs avarice
BW OU (Bo3): A Hero's Destiny vs termnal
BW OU (Bo1): Mendeez vs eden
DPP OU (Bo3): BKC vs Dridri457
DPP OU (Bo3): TyCarter vs Career Ended
ADV OU (Bo3): LpZ vs Sachumberto
ADV OU (Bo1): Spreek vs Zpanther19
GSC OU (Bo3): Underlying vs gorgie
GSC OU (Bo1): TibarnWasTaken vs summer islands
RBY OU (Bo3): BeeOrSomething vs Sabelette
RBY OU (Bo3): Laroxyl vs Maris Bonibell

:salamence: Dragon Dance Dynasty (1) vs (2) Golden State Dusketballers :dusclops:
ORAS OU (Bo3): pj vs Ruffles
ORAS OU (Bo1): Axzel vs Typical_bastard
BW OU (Bo3): Cow vs Monai
BW OU (Bo1): Hockey1 vs Dababy2
DPP OU (Bo3): Mustounet vs 16bit
DPP OU (Bo3): 199 Lives vs SEA
ADV OU (Bo3): AC7 vs BIG WILL
ADV OU (Bo1): Skarpherim vs Kaboom
GSC OU (Bo3): Thor vs melancholy0
GSC OU (Bo1): le LLiolae vs Seanobiwan
RBY OU (Bo3): Teh vs Sceptross
RBY OU (Bo3): Deezcastforms vs Kristyl

Deadline for this week is <t:1750651140>

Realm Ruination Reunicluses (0) vs (0) Violet Vaporeons
ORAS OU (Bo3): Always! vs Metallica126
ORAS OU (Bo1): Destro16 vs Indulge in dreams
BW OU (Bo3): evakiyama! vs Quarante8
BW OU (Bo1): Duke Sux vs magialice
DPP OU (Bo3): pixie909 vs SFG
DPP OU (Bo3): Gtcha vs elodin
ADV OU (Bo3): Pak vs EG Jhonx~
ADV OU (Bo1): Johnald vs CyberOdin✝
GSC OU (Bo3): RealJester vs GLFGno7
GSC OU (Bo1): OmBrArch vs CrossHeart
RBY OU (Bo3): Texas Cloverleaf vs Unowndragon
RBY OU (Bo3): GirlsSeeGhosts vs kjdaas

The Banette Bachelors (0) vs (0) Jersey Shore Slowpokes
ORAS OU (Bo3): watashi vs devin
ORAS OU (Bo1): Savouras vs BluBirD
BW OU (Bo3): BLJ mario vs Dusk
BW OU (Bo1): Fusien vs Sossa
DPP OU (Bo3): lighthouses vs Tizio Potente Ao
DPP OU (Bo3): Sheik : vs Plague
ADV OU (Bo3): robjr vs mielke
ADV OU (Bo1): Colteor vs mayopockets
GSC OU (Bo3): NotVeryCake vs Iguana
GSC OU (Bo1): Rubyblood vs hybone
RBY OU (Bo3): oakdeon vs violet river
RBY OU (Bo3): oligen1 vs Melbelle

New York Yanma (0) vs (0) Mauville Magnetons
ORAS OU (Bo3): kingofking vs Stories
ORAS OU (Bo1): Drachenkeule vs avarice
BW OU (Bo3): A Hero's Destiny vs termnal
BW OU (Bo1): Mendeez vs eden
DPP OU (Bo3): BKC vs Dridri457
DPP OU (Bo3): TyCarter vs Career Ended
ADV OU (Bo3): LpZ vs Sachumberto
ADV OU (Bo1): Spreek vs Zpanther19
GSC OU (Bo3): Underlying vs gorgie
GSC OU (Bo1): TibarnWasTaken vs summer islands
RBY OU (Bo3): BeeOrSomething vs Sabelette
RBY OU (Bo3): Laroxyl vs Maris Bonibell

Dragon Dance Dynasty (0) vs (0) Golden State Dusketballers
ORAS OU (Bo3): pj vs Ruffles
ORAS OU (Bo1): Hyssou vs Typical_bastard
BW OU (Bo3): Cow vs Monai
BW OU (Bo1): Hockey1 vs Dababy2
DPP OU (Bo3): Mustounet vs 16bit
DPP OU (Bo3): 199 Lives vs SEA
ADV OU (Bo3): AC7 vs BIG WILL
ADV OU (Bo1): Skarpherim vs Kaboom
GSC OU (Bo3): Thor vs melancholy0
GSC OU (Bo1): le LLiolae vs Seanobiwan
RBY OU (Bo3): Teh vs Sceptross
RBY OU (Bo3): Deezcastforms vs Kristyl
 
RBY OU (Bo3): Texas Cloverleaf vs Unowndragon
RBY OU (Bo3): GirlsSeeGhosts vs kjdaas
RBY OU (Bo3): oakdeon vs violet river
RBY OU (Bo3): oligen1 vs Melbelle
RBY OU (Bo3): BeeOrSomething vs Sabelette
RBY OU (Bo3): Laroxyl vs Maris Bonibell
RBY OU (Bo3): Teh vs Sceptross
RBY OU (Bo3): Deezcastforms vs Kristyl


There will be no winners or losers in this, nobody who is right or wrong. We will all lose. The Magnetons, the Yanmas, and Girls see Ghosts as a whole.
 
PREDICTIONS FOR ADV BECAUSE I WAS ASKED

ADV BO3 : Big Will vs AC7
Tough matchup, about 50/50 imo, I take BIG WILL because tbh he always surprises me w the amount of unpredictability, im not sure what u can even expect from a scout perspective, really feels the dude runs about everything IMO and those r always the tougher opponents because if they can run a lot of options well ur very spread thin in prep, i guess that matters less in bo1 (?), AC7 is a very solid player, and maybe better pilot wise, but he feels more limited in team choice. I give the edge to BIG WILL to surprise AC7 w unique team choice, not saying he needs it to win, but i think the fact hes more varied gives him a certain nice edge here, esp vs a player i think is a bit more limited, even if a bit better piloting wise, should be one of the more interesting matchups

ADV BO1 : Skarpherim vs Kaboom
I think I ultimately give the edge to Skarph, but this is also pretty close, this is a MU where I feel both players can run anything and do pretty decently w it, and because both players feel similar in profile, I have to give the edge to Skarph out of results, while his SPL was most unfortunate, his ladder record and SSNL finalist still hold up, and hes probably like 10% better than his opp in this scenario, I wouldnt count Kaboom out however as I think the difference in playing ability is more minimal than ud think, and I think I can see Kaboom surprising Skarph w good prep, but I feel its a bit wonky to prep vs Skarph (as it honestly always mostly is vs team stealers) but I feel Kaboom is slightly more varied than Skarph, but idt his edge in variance triumphs skarphs edge in raw piloting.

ADV BO3 : LpZ vs Sachumberto
Lpz is a pretty good all around player, and he is very good in general, however I do think hes a bit below everyone so far because maybe his meta knowledge is a bit lackluster and I usually think team stealers have a worse MU vs homebrew cooks, which is Umberto, frankly I know most from predicts dont know Umberto all that well but he is pretty great and he is more active and in tune w ADV all around, as all MUs however its close bc Lpz just has a raw pilot ability and is a great clicker, but I think while the variance is up w Big Will's, I think vs niche stuff he might be let down and taken advantage of, and i dont really mean BLs, but rather rarely seen OU sets, Umbertos piloting been solid all around and whenever I check on him he only seems to be improving, very interesting match that could cement Umberto's further rise, but could also prove time again that LpZ is just a really solid and great pilot, who can do well w any team hes given

ADV BO1 : Spreek vs Zpanther19
Probably the toughest one to decide? I do think Zpanther doesnt have the raw variance of Spreek, Spreek is likely the most varied player, even more than Big Will, he can run ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING. I am not kidding, after all we saw him bring DDPass and stomping, the fact theres too much wildcards mixed up w solid teams make the prep job a nightmare for Panther, but its fair to say Panther is better as a player, which while Spreek isnt far off I do think in the end as a frame of reference its probably Panther>Spreek=Umberto in terms of piloting, but as the only singular > sees, the difference is not that far off, and the variance is a legit worry, very difficult to handle players like this as I highlighted w Big will, even moreso the fact this is BO1 and a mistake in MU is a deadly one and u could argue Spreek can cut corners more efficiently in such a format to maximize the variance, but Panther could get a bit more risky himself, this is probably the most 50/50 MU, but ive been doing these predicts as im looking at em, so not sure, giving a very very small edge to Spreek due to the prep aspect, but I can see Panther taking it a lot of times too, due to being bit better.

ADV BO3 : Robjr vs Mielke
Super interesting. Kinda like a JI set, neat. Although I just learned rob wasnt invited for JI2, theres some good justification I think. Anyway, I dont know if I have much to write because I feel Mielke is more varied and I take him pilot wise too, I also feel Mielke will prep better than Rob and hes also a homebrew cook, which is basically Umberto vs LPZ, except Mielke is probably better at clicking too. I think most of my pts for that other MU stand here, robjr is however very solid and I think mielke's disdain for bo3 may bite him in the ass, but while rob is a pretty good clicker/gamer, his team choice sometimes feels pretty lackluster or simply not varied enough, but he has proved other times he can perform very well, also outside of this tour, rob hasnt been in tune w adv like mielke has, so thats another pt for Mielke as well.

ADV BO1 : Mayopockets vs Colteor
Sorry Colteor, but I think we agree that Mayo is the better player, as of variance I frankly dont think either r very varied, but I guess Colteor is a bit more varied, but Mayo is still pretty better, not that significant of a margin but also not as small as some other MUs, I feel I dont have much to say here, other than I think ppl probably do underrate Colteor's chances, but I agree on principle anyway, its BO1 though so I think Colteors chances also get a bit higher due to its nature. Either way I do think Mayo is pretty favored

ADV BO3 : Pak vs EG JHONX
Jhonx hasnt played in a while, but he was never varied, sure he could play defense sometimes but his offense gameplay was always marginally better, but also his offenses often follow similar (ie predictable on the scout) paths and I think its very exploitable, jhonxs variance is pretty low for a homebrew cook that makes while Pak, mostly a team stealer, get the edge there, as Pak has variance on par w Mielke, that and I think its not controversial to say Pak's piloting is just better, he has reached ADV Revival Finals for god's sake and has done a pretty nice SPL, while a dissapointing JI run, I still give him a lot of edge, but I can see Jhonx surprising w crackhead spreads or sets that cud take a advantage of more a standard approach Pak may take, but also its BO3 so thats a bit lower on the paradigm of increasing ur chances as well, that and I think Jhonx may not have enough variance to surprise Pak, as a lot of Jhonx offense teams r p similar and thus could be exploited. I think Pak takes it.

ADV BO1 : Johnald vs CyberOdin
This is basically if something akin to Spreek vs Mielke/Mayo or Umberto vs Mielke/Mayo happened, except Mielke/Mayo have no variance at all, thats this MU, Johnald is on a very similar level to the two mentioned prior and has mild variance with a tendency to gravitate towards Stall, while Odin is on the level (if not better) than Mielke/Mayo clicking wise, but his diehard refusal of running other teams than like his 7 teams he uses since 2018 kinda fucks him over a lot. He is too predictable and Johnald is pretty good at prep while having a good playing level w a ceiling that could reach for Odin's clicking level, as prep aspects matter, especially in a BO1, I have to take Johnald over Odin, I also expect something similar to Spreek vs Odin in terms of actual in game, which I believe was last week, which means using a set that takes advantage of Odin's too predictable tendencies, I feel Odin at this point cant rely on the same teams hes been always running and has to adapt, he could very well be a threat like that and probably top2 to top3 in the pool, but I feel he really wont do that and he will get fucked over in the builder as a result, and even w the smallish edge on playing/clicking, that small edge wont save u from a bad MU, esp vs a player of calibre of Johnald.


THATS IT HERE R THE PREDICTIONS I WAS ASKED TO DO.
 
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