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Smogon Classic XII - Commencement

goldmason

goldmason

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RoA & Tour Head
Welcome to the twelfth Smogon Classic! This tournament celebrates Smogon's and Pokemon's history throughout the years. Players will compete in separate tournaments for the RBY, GSC, ADV, DPP, and BW generations, culminating in a play-off stage where the contestants must play all five generations with the coveted white trophy on the line :pixels/270:

The format is the same as previous editions and consists of five separate tournaments: the BW Cup, the DPP Cup, the ADV Cup, the GSC Cup, and the RBY Cup. Each tournament is single elimination, best of three. Depending on your performance in a Cup, you will be awarded points. The point system is the same as the one used in Smogon Grand Slam; you can find the points tables here. When all the Cups have been finished, the sixteen players with the most points will advance to the play-offs. There they will battle in a best of five series until there is one undisputed Smogon Classic champion.

Signups for each Cup will be posted a week after the signups for the previous Cup. Here is the list of the five Cups with the names of the hosts and the dates each signup thread will be posted:
  • BW Cup - Hosted by Finchinator - Signups on May 24th
  • DPP Cup - Hosted by a fairy - Signups on May 31st
  • ADV Cup - Hosted by emma - Signups on June 7th
  • GSC Cup - Hosted by Django - Signups on June 14th
  • RBY Cup - Hosted by Eledyr - Signups on June 21st
If there are any questions, then you can post in this thread or message me privately. Please do not use this thread as a venue to complain about the format.

Important notes
  • From last year: The point system has been adjusted to match the current point system of Smogon Grand Slam. This means Cups will award 1 point per win until the round of 32, and wins from that point onwards will award 2 points.
  • Reminder that replays will be required starting in Round 2 of every Classic Cup.
    • (NEW) Mandatory replays in winposts must be easily findable and accessible. Basically just link them in order like a sane human being and you'll be fine. First and good faith offenses will be met with a warning and a requirement that your winpost be edited, repeat offenders will be infracted.
  • Tiering changes to the metagames in this tournament might not immediately affect this tournament the round after they happen.
  • (NEW) 2 Week rounds will no longer be permitted in Smogon Classic.

Prize

Also, this edition of Smogon Classic will award a cash prize to top finishers! The winner of the tournament will receive $150 courtesy of chaos. If you're interested in donating towards the prize pool for Smogon Classic, please contact me or another Tournament Director!


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will make a classic post whenever I finish collecting the data but in the meantime I made my pick for the playoff field on vibes when bw cup subs closed. other people should make their predicts too so we can get the joint dopamine rush of gambling and proving ball knowledge. anyone who gets the most players in playoffs right gets bragging rights. in no particular order:
  1. star
  2. kristyl
  3. fakes
  4. elodin
  5. soulwind
  6. fear
  7. malekith
  8. mind gaming
  9. tenebricite
  10. conflict
  11. noname
  12. cow
  13. pideous
  14. mgdos16
  15. girlsseeghosts
  16. dice
 
ego said:
will make a classic post whenever I finish collecting the data but in the meantime I made my pick for the playoff field on vibes when bw cup subs closed. other people should make their predicts too so we can get the joint dopamine rush of gambling and proving ball knowledge. anyone who gets the most players in playoffs right gets bragging rights. in no particular order:
  1. star
  2. kristyl
  3. fakes
  4. elodin
  5. soulwind
  6. fear
  7. malekith
  8. mind gaming
  9. tenebricite
  10. conflict
  11. noname
  12. cow
  13. pideous
  14. mgdos16
  15. girlsseeghosts
  16. dice
Click to expand...
Click to collapse...
At long, long last, I finished what I meant to do. This post is my preseason playoff prediction formula. This does not include any data from this tournament, and I did not see any of the data when I made my personal predictions. This involved an awful lot of hunting down data and a ton of little fixes, but it's done, so I have something to show!

Review of methodology: I made a formula that incorporated data from:
  1. Every SPL season in RBY - BW from 2021 to 2026
  2. Every subforum teamtour season in RBY - BW from 2023 - 2026
  3. Every invitational in RBY - BW from 2023 - 2026
  4. Every subforum circuit tour in RBY - BW from 2023 - 2026
I then weighted them. Roughly speaking, I wanted an elite SPL season to be roughly equivalent to an invitational win, and an average SPL season to be roughly equivalent to an elite subforum teamtour season (I think the exact formula is that 5-5 in SPL is equivalent to 6-2 in a subforum PL, 4-4 in SPL is equal to 5-2 in a subforum PL, 5-4 in SPL is equivalent to 7-2 in a subforum PL, and 6-3 in SPL is equivalent to 9-0 in a subforum PL. quibble with those if you want and I'm sure you could actually do proper stats to see how predictive subforum PL records are of SPL records but I don't care enough and I didn't want to do extra math) or a subforum circuit tour win (this is the shakiest because of the sheer volume of subforum individuals with not all being created equal in terms of competition, but I didn't want to wait even longer until I properly compute a JAWS-type system that would be my ideal solution to finish this). Placements below 1st were computed accordingly, and the tournaments were scaled by year (1.2x for 2026 tournaments, 1x for 2025, 0.8x for 2024, 0.6x for 2023, 0.4x for 2022, and 0.2x for 2021). Finally, with every player having a score for every tier, I sorted every participant in every cup by their score for that tier, and then assigned them qualifying points accordingly. For instance, I seeded Serpi to get 14 points in RBY Cup, chuva 12 points, Amaranth and NotVeryCake to get 10 points (BeeOrSomething would have been there if they signed up) and so on.

I don't think I care enough to copy in the seeding for each individual tour. I'll just get right to the results. For what it's worth I think there's a separate post to be made about the state of the playerbases for each tour (which tiers' newer mainers have the best results, which are dominated by tour players/retired players, etc), maybe I'll do that later for fun.

Please note: this project, by design, rewards volume over peak/average/perceived strength. There will be cases where players known to be the best in that tier scores lower than a mainer, which in most cases is because said elite player largely doesn't play subforum tours (individual or team) at all while the mainer plays everything, with some cases being the result of the elite player dipping into other tiers in SPL.

1784931951187.png


A few things to note:
  • The BW field is missing Finchinator, harshest, Sergi, and Rewer, all players who score highly in my formula. SoulWind scoring so low is because they basically don't play subforum tours in BW at all, getting most of their score from SPL. The obvious beneficiary is Quarante8.
  • I'm not fully happy with GSC turned out, I should really double check what happened because the seeding here looks the wonkiest in ways that don't just obviously amount to "mainers score weirdly high here because they play everything and do well in everything". Too many points allotted from circuit tours, I think. The important thing is that Conflict and Fear have probably played this tier in SPL less of late than you'd imagine.
  • NotVeryCake ends up here in RBY by a) playing a ton of circuit tours over the last few years (and doing well!) and b) BeeOrSomething, Kaz, Genesis7, Laroxyl, Sceptross, SaDiSTiCNarwhal, and nicole7735 all skipping RBY Cup this year.
How does this ranking compare to my predictions?
  • 8 of my predictions are projected to make playoffs by my formula: Star, Kristyl, Fakes, SoulWind, elodin, Conflict, Cow, and Pideous. I also predicted Malekith and NoName6293 and my formula has them just on the outside. Most of my other predictions were just based on how strong I think the players are/some picks I know were dark horse guesses so I'm mostly not surprised, but the one surprising one was how low Fear ended up on the formula. This is in part because their results outside of GSC and ADV are essentially negligible, but probably more importantly, they haven't actually played very much GSC over the last few years
  • A handful of other SPL-caliber mainers get projected for playoffs here: violet river, Rubyblood, Monai, Sheik :, Laurel, BlazingDark. Larry hasn't started recently but is a depth fixture in several tiers. That basically leaves Quarante8 (I already talked about the BW seeding) and TyCarter, a strong DPP mainer with a smattering of results in every tier. Think I read once that they had an outside shot at getting an SPL slot in DPP this year, not sure?
Regardless, I'm happy with how this turned out. As of right now, my formula projects Star, Kristyl, TyCarter, and violet river to make it in out of its initial predictions, with a handful of others still having decent odds. That's similar to my picks (my mind gaming and NoName predicts look better but I missed on the latter two, although I promise I wanted to pick Underlying for top 16 really badly). I think it's very plausible that someone could have predicted the playoff field better than I did, but this is a work in progress and the goal is to do better next time. Good luck all!
 

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Quick review of our playoff scenarios:

Cutoff at 21: there are currently 7 players with at least 21 points: Star, Real FV13, Underlying, BlazingDark, NoName6293, zugubu royale (!!), GaryTheGengar. There are 10 other players that can possibly reach 21 points, but several would need to win their last cup and they can't all do it (for instance, only one of Fakes, Zelph, and Premonitions can reach 21 because they all need to win RBY Cup to do it). 21 is in outright, no chance at TB, and no chance of cutoff at 21.

Cutoff at 20: there are currently 10 players with at least 20 points: Star, Real FV13, Underlying, BlazingDark, NoName6293, zugubu royale, GaryTheGengar, TyCarter, Skarpherim, Exiline. There are another 12 that can possibly reach 20. If at least 6 of the following 12 players (Amaranth, SamuelBest, SoulWind, coco, Fakes, Zelph, Sergio Aguero, MichaelderBeste2, Premonitions, violet river, Isza, Deezcastforms) reach 20 points, then 19 is eliminated. If at least 7 of them reach 20 points, there's a TB at 20. (note that Deezcastforms and Premonitions both have to win RBY Cup, violet river and MichaelderBeste2 both have to win ADV Cup, and Zelph, Fakes, and SoulWind all have to make RBY Cup finals. So there's actually only a maximum of 18 players that can reach 20).

Cutoff at 19: there are currently 12 players with at least 19 points: Star, Real FV13, Underlying, BlazingDark, NoName6293, zugubu royale, GaryTheGengar, TyCarter, Skarpherim, Exiline, Amaranth, SamuelBest. There are another 11 that can possibly reach 19. If at least 4 of the following 11 players (SoulWind, coco, Fakes, Zelph, Sergio Aguero, MichaelderBeste2, Premonitions, violet river, Isza, Deezcastforms, Sossa) reach 19 points, then 18 is eliminated. If at least 5 of them reach 19 points, there's a TB at 19. (again: Deezcastforms and Premonitions both have to win RBY Cup, while Fakes and Zelph both have to make RBY Cup finals. So there's a max of 21 players that can reach 19 points).

If the following happens (or one of a few other possibilities)
  • DPP Cup: Sossa def. Sergio Aguero in semifinals, Real FV13 def. Sossa in finals (Sossa and Sergio Aguero both finish with 17 points)
  • ADV Cup: MichaelderBeste2 def. eternallywandering in quarterfinals, TyCarter def. MichaelderBeste2 in semifinals, violet river def. Star in semifinals, TyCarter def. violet river in finals (violet river finishes with 18, MichaelderBeste2 finishes with 17)
  • GSC Cup: goes as follows: betathunder 1st (17 points)
  • RBY Cup: goes as follows: Mysterious M 1st (17 points), Deezcastforms 2nd (18 points), Premonitions 3rd (17 points), Fakes 3rd (18 points), SoulWind 5th (17 points)
We could have a potential 10-way TB at 17 points for a single playoff spot (there's no way to squeeze in a bigger TB at 17, I tried).

Now consider instead (or one of a few other possibilities):
  • DPP Cup: Real FV13 1st, Sergio Aguero 2nd (19 points)
  • ADV Cup: Star 1st, TyCarter 2nd, violet river 3rd (16 points), eternallywandering 3rd
  • GSC Cup: Underlying 1st, BlazingDark 2nd, NoName6293 3rd, Isza 3rd (16 points), coco 5th (16 points), Amaranth 5th, betathunder 5th, Siatam 5th
  • RBY Cup: Amaranth 1st, Real FV13 2nd, Deezcastforms 3rd (16 points), BlazingDark 3rd, Fakes 5th (16 points), Underlying 5th, SamuelBest 5th, Mysterious M 5th
We could have a 9-way TB at 16 points for a single playoff spot. I don't think bigger is possible.

15 points is eliminated though sorry guys I really tried :((
 
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