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Smogon Masters III - Play-Ins & Top Cut Round 1 [REPLAYS MANDATORY]

Princess Autumn

Princess Autumn

Anyways - so then I cursed her.
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Art by Blazenix
​
Welcome to the third edition of Smogon Masters! This is a Swiss bracket, Bo3 tournament with each set consisting of ORAS OU, SM OU, and SS OU. Players will decide which metagame to play first (with the higher seed choosing come Top Cut), then the loser picks a different generation for the following game. If both players cannot agree on a metagame to play first, each round will have a default generation randomized at the start of each round. After several rounds of the Swiss bracket, all players with 2 or fewer losses will be advanced onto a single elimination, Bo3 bracket which will culminate in a grand finals where we'll crown our winner of Smogon Masters III and the purple trophy
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! Last year's Masters was won by none other than Empo in a closely fought finals, do you think you have what it takes to take his title?

Rules & Tournament Format

General Tournament Rules
  • This is a tournament that will employ the standard rulesets for ORAS OU, SM OU, and SS OU, being a Best of Three with one game of each tier.
  • Smogon Masters III will be a Swiss tournament with a to-be-determined Top Cut size depending on signups.
    • Players will be automatically dropped when they hit three losses as they are no longer in contention for top cut. Players who achieve top cut scores before the end of Swiss will not be matched up for the remainder of the Swiss rounds.
    • Players will be assigned a random opponent out of the pool of players with the same record as them each round, although on rare occasions, players may face someone with a better/worse record to avoid having more than 1 bye in any given round. Players will not face the same opponent during the Swiss portion of the tour.
  • Matches are to be played on Pokémon Showdown!. If you can't agree on which server to play on, the Smogtours server is the default option.
  • Saving replays is required and must be posted in each winpost starting in the second round.
  • There are no extensions due to the nature of a Swiss tournament, so please get your games done on time. This will be removed for the single elimination Top Cut stage of the tournament.
  • Princess Autumn is the primary host of this tournament and the co-hosts will be a fairy, Eledyr, goldmason, and vmnunes.
This tournament uses a Swiss format, where everyone plays until they lose three times, or until Top Cut begins after Round 10 (or 11). The Top Cut will be single elimination and based on a 32-player bracket, although this may vary depending on the tour's player count. All matches will be a Best of 3, involving ORAS OU, USUM OU, and SWSH OU.

This tournament is expected to fall into of the following sizes:
384 - 512 players = 10 rounds of Swiss, 32 person Top Cut with varying numbers of byes
513 - ~978 players = 11 rounds of Swiss, 32 person Top Cut with varying numbers of byes
~978 - 1024 players = 11 rounds of Swiss, 64 person Top Cut with varying numbers of byes

Byes will be awarded based off of seeding which will be calculated by the following tiebreakers: fewest number of losses, highest opponent's resistance, highest opponent's opponent's resistance.
Opponent's resistance is defined as the average win% of a player's opponents expressed as a decimal, for example:
  • I have a record of 3-0
  • My R1 opponent's record is 0-3
  • My R2 opponent's record is 1-2
  • My R3 opponent's record is 2-1
  • My opponent's resistance is (0 + 1/3 + 2/3)/3 = 1/3 = ~0.33
  • This value has a hard coded minimum of 0.25
Opponent's opponent's resistance is the average of each of a player's opponent's resistances, and is calculated in a similar manner.
If players are still tied after these, their seeding will be determined by a coin flip.

There will be no substitute slots this year, instead week 1 will last for 2 weeks; substitutes will be allowed to signup for the duration of week 1 and come Sunday, inactive players will be replaced on a first-come first-serve basis.

Players who achieve a Top Cut-qualifying record before the final round of Swiss will be removed from the Swiss rounds. They will be seeded in brackets depending on when they qualified.

The following players have made it to top cut, you can find the full standings here.
1) Giannis Antetokommo-o (8 - 0) [0.7249 | 0.6008]
2) ChrisPBacon (8 - 0) [0.7041 | 0.6204]
3) Typhlosion48 (8 - 0) [0.5542 | 0.5853]
4) c0mp (8 - 1) [0.6391 | 0.5801]
5) Dj Breloominati♬ (8 - 1) [0.6324 | 0.6034]
6) 3d (8 - 1) [0.632 | 0.6214]
7) lax (8 - 1) [0.6224 | 0.6063]
8) kDCA (8 - 1) [0.6015 | 0.5763]
9) sugarhigh (8 - 1) [0.5848 | 0.6015]
10) egalvanc (8 - 1) [0.5783 | 0.5633]
11) TJ (8 - 1) [0.5685 | 0.5999]
12) Meru (8 - 1) [0.5583 | 0.576]
13) Tenebricite (8 - 2) [0.7028 | 0.5893]
14) BAGANHA13 (8 - 2) [0.6544 | 0.5284]
15) fade (8 - 2) [0.651 | 0.5731]
16) DeeJ (8 - 2) [0.6285 | 0.5722]
17) Blazing (8 - 2) [0.6194 | 0.5785]
18) Attribute (8 - 2) [0.6158 | 0.5699]
19) Vioz (8 - 2) [0.6085 | 0.5675]
20) GeniusX (8 - 2) [0.605 | 0.6055]
21) Ikaishi (8 - 2) [0.5894 | 0.5519]
22) Luthier (8 - 2) [0.5851 | 0.5732]
23) zinnias (8 - 2) [0.5713 | 0.5715]
24) Always! (8 - 2) [0.5635 | 0.5637]
25) Hairoll (8 - 2) [0.5585 | 0.5846]
26) NoName6293 (8 - 2) [0.5577 | 0.5861]
27) Stories (8 - 2) [0.5501 | 0.5634]
28) Star (8 - 2) [0.5485 | 0.4867]
29) ZeroKitss (8 - 2) [0.5388 | 0.5353]
30) Ado (8 - 2) [0.5335 | 0.5557]
31) Storm Zone (8 - 2) [0.5305 | 0.5718]
32) Scarfire (8 - 2) [0.5051 | 0.541]
33) Nemosse (8 - 2) [0.4956 | 0.5741]
34) Minatevis (8 - 2) [0.406 | 0.4992]

Top Cut Round 1
1) Giannis Antetokommo-o vs [Winner of 32) Scarfire vs 33) Nemosse]
2) ChrisPBacon vs [Winner of 31) Storm Zone vs 34) Minatevis]
3) Typhlosion48 vs 30) Ado
4) c0mp vs 29) ZeroKitss
5) Dj Breloominati♬ vs 28) Star
6) 3d vs 27) Stories
7) lax vs 26) NoName6293
8) kDCA vs 25) Hairoll
9) sugarhigh vs 24) Always!
10) egalvanc vs 23) zinnias
11) TJ vs 22) Luthier
12) Meru vs 21) Ikaishi
13) Tenebricite vs 20) GeniusX
14) BAGANHA13 vs 19) Vioz
15) fade vs 18) Attribute
16) DeeJ vs 17) Blazing

Due to 34 players reaching top cut, there will be 2 play-in games. These games and the games they affect will all have a 1 week deadline, all other games will have a 2 week deadline.

The deadline for play-in games is <t:1764558000:F>! The deadline for round 1 games is <t:1765162800:F>!

If there are any questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to myself or any of the other hosts!
 
Will make a big post in top 16 (which is the common playoff thresholds for all individuals), but a few scattered thoughts about the qualifiers:

1. 8/34 players here are real newcomers: zero sheet games and zero individual playoff appearances. Those players are NoName6293, zinnias, Blazing, ZeroKitss, Ikaishi, Vioz, Hairoll and Nemosse (note that if you were counting Masters top-cut Ro32 and 64 as playoff appearances, which I don't, then Ikaishi already has one. If we were to also count OST top 64 as a playoff appearance, then Vioz also has one).

2. I also wanted to give a shoutout to the players in this field representing teams that didn't make the WCOP main draw this year; a lot of these teams are filled with up-and-comers with familiar names, and maybe a breakout performance here could bode well for those teams. In addition to ZeroKitss and Ikaishi (Mexico), Blazing (Vietnam), we can also add BAGANHA13 (Portugal), and I guess if we're willing to stretch the spirit of this category a bit we can also add Hairoll and Storm Zone (Latin America), sugarhigh (Asia), and egalvanc and Ado (Spain).

3. Not a single player here is positive on the sheet in more than one of these tiers if we set the minimum games played in each to as low as 10. There are players that are positive on the sheet in these tiers combined over meaningful samples, sure. Star is 29-22, fade is 28-20, Luthier is 26-14, lax is 23-13, Storm Zone's 19-18, c0mp's 17-13, GeniusX is 12-10. Those are the 7 players who are positive over at least 20 sheet games in any of the Masters tiers (TJ at 9-13 is the only other player with at least 20 games in these tiers at all). The thing is, they all get there largely with a single tier; Star, Luthier and Storm Zone with SS, c0mp and GeniusX with SM, and fade with ORAS. lax is the only exception, even over a substantial sample in SS and dominant in a slightly smaller sample in SM, but even then, still only positive in one of them.

4. ChrisPBacon, DeeJ, Star, Storm Zone, Tenebricite, and sugarhigh also made it to top 32 last year. Meanwhile, fade, 3d, and Luthier made it in Masters I. I saved for here, though, the two players who made the top 16 both previous years, and who can potentially become the only players to do it three years in a row: Dj Breloominati♬ and Giannis Antetokommo-o.

5. highlight: ChrisPBacon vs Storm Zone (predicting him to make it out of play-ins). Defending finalist against one of four players in this bracket with an individual trophy. You'd assume SS would be the highlight here, with ChrisPBacon going 6-3 in the tier this past SPL and Storm having a ton of games there himself, but I'll point out that both of them are undefeated in SM this tournament, and actually put up their best records in that tier last year (ChrisPBacon went 9-3 there while Storm went 8-2, going a comparatively mediocre 4-4 in SS).

6. highlight: Dj Breloominati♬ vs Star. Really unfortunate matchup for Spitfire arcanine, rewarded for making it out of Swiss for a third year in a row with a matchup against maybe the most accomplished player in the pool. Second in this bracket in sheet wins (with a better winrate than first-place lax), tied for third all-time in playoff appearances with 19 (behind only SoulWind and Empo, and with a sizable lead in this pool over Giannis's 14). Neither of them have glaringly weak tiers from their last two iterations of the tournament, nor does their quality of opposition in either year stand out (Star had a pretty easy slate this year, likewise for Spitfire except for the match against Giannis that they lost; Star beat Luthier and mind gaming last year while Spitfire took out lax and Skypenguin). There's definitely an experience gap here, given that Star has a final and a semifinal in STours featuring these exact tiers; at the same time, though, Star's a much less intimidating 10-11 in ORAS and SM OU on the sheet. There's an upset path for sure because Spitfire arcanine is good, but it'll be tough.

7. highlight: lax vs NoName6293. I'm admittedly getting a bit of deja vu here; will lax be the showcase for an up-and-coming Indian player at the start of top cut for the second year in a row? This is NoName's first deep individual tournament run, garnering rookie hype through SM Circuit semis and ORAS Circuit quarters (as well as the DPP Circuit win) before getting banned out of SPL and STour. Because none of lax's deepest tournament runs (OLT X, Slam VIII, Classic IV) featured Masters tiers, I think it'd be easy to write them off as a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none here that makes them vulnerable to someone more active in these tiers. I think that's overly pessimistic, but then again, it's been a long time since the WCOP 2019 that was lax's one real dominant run in SM OU. A breakout would be cool, so would an in-form lax.

8. TJ vs Luthier. I don't actually have that much to say here. Most of these matchups are either a pair of wildcards or a veteran against a prospective breakout, whereas here we just have two established players going at it early. I don't think it'd be crazy to say that Luthier has more pedigree in SS than just about anyone else in any given tier. Maybe Star SS or fade ORAS? That said, TJ has significant SS pedigree of his own: some good teamtour runs, an STour win and an OST semi in that gen. Hard to know what the other tiers will look like. Should be good.

9. Tenebricite vs GeniusX. US South teamkill. I'm on record as saying that Tenebricite got some brutal luck this past WCOP that really hurt the team; Santu, Ruffles and Paprikaflow is a death pool and I think multiple wins would have been doable in any other pool. It's not easy to qualify for Classic, and they've handled a difficult run of opponents well this Masters. Wins over Luthier, Star and DonSalvatore, losses only to c0mp and 3d. GeniusX is no slouch either, though. Wins over fade and Garay oak, qualified for STour this year, subbed in both ORAS and SM in SPL this year and did well in both. I'll pick Tenebricite, could go either way.

10. fade vs Attribute. No idea what to make of Attribute in these tiers. 9-8 on the sheet in SS, nothing in SM and ORAS. Their competition this tour has been consistently solid but no one that I'd call a big win. On the other hand, they've been dominant in SV OU for about a year now, and even with the disappointing recent SCL record (against tough opposition) I'm curious about how they can do here. fade doesn't really have the individual tour success you'd expect from someone who's 55-39 on the sheet, but what interests me about this matchup is that they're coming in with established and basically opposite strengths.

1) Giannis Antetokommo-o vs [32) Scarfire vs 33) Nemosse]
2) ChrisPBacon vs [31) Storm Zone vs 34) Minatevis]
3) Typhlosion48 vs 30) Ado
4) c0mp vs 29) ZeroKitss
5) Dj Breloominati♬ vs 28) Star
6) 3d vs 27) Stories
7) lax vs 26) NoName6293
8) kDCA vs 25) Hairoll
9) sugarhigh vs 24) Always!
10) egalvanc vs 23) zinnias
11) TJ vs 22) Luthier
12) Meru vs 21) Ikaishi
13) Tenebricite vs 20) GeniusX
14) BAGANHA13 vs 19) Vioz
15) fade vs 18) Attribute
16) DeeJ vs 17) Blazing

1) Giannis Antetokommo-o vs 16) DeeJ
31) Storm Zone vs 15) fade
3) Typhlosion48 vs 19) Vioz
4) c0mp vs 13) Tenebricite
28) Star vs 21) Ikaishi
6) 3d vs 22) Luthier
7) lax vs 10) egalvanc
8) kDCA vs 9) sugarhigh

1) Giannis Antetokommo-o vs 8) kDCA
15) fade vs 7) lax
3) Typhlosion48 vs 6) 3d
13) Tenebricite vs 28) Star

1) Giannis Antetokommo-o vs 28) Star
15) fade vs 6) 3d

1) Giannis Antetokommo-o vs 6) 3d
 
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