Other The Next Big Thing

[MilkyWay]

With the bans of Lucarionite and possibly Genesect taking place in the next few days the OU metagame will likely go through a few significant changes. At the time of this post, both of these pokemon are arguably the most dangerous pokemon (and broken) in OU due to their unpredictability and ability to run multiple sets effectively. So, when and if these pokemon get banished to Ubers who will take their place and become "The Next Big Thing"?

Personally, I think Charizard will be the "Next Big Thing" because it's generally considered the next best offensive mega after Lucario. Of course Mega Pinsir is good too, however, Charizard brings two mega evolutions to the table that offer great coverage and unpredictability, while Mega Pinsir is fairly predictable and almost always uses the same two types of moves for coverage.

Charizard is actually a lot like Mega Lucario in the way that it can go special or physical and it's hard to tell which is which until it's too late. Many of Charizard X's counters are roasted by Mega Charizard Y and vice versa.

Mega Charizard Y's Counter against Mega Charizard X

252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Flare Blitz vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Eviolite Chansey: 372-438 (52.8 - 62.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Dragon Claw vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Goodra: 500-590 (130.2 - 153.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO

+1 252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Dragon Claw vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Multiscale Dragonite: 292-345 (90.1 - 106.4%) -- 43.8% chance to OHKO


It's worth mentioning that things like Garchomp and Latias who are good counters to Mega Charizard Y will lose to Mega Charizard X if they switch in on a Dragon Dance, which is very common. Also Blissey loses to Mega Charizard X as well but I already posted a Chansey calc so I didn't want to be redundant. Finally, a Mega Charizard X Outrage with no boosts will do the same to Dragonite (through Muliscale) as Dragon Claw at +1.

Mega Charizard X's counters against Mega Charizard Y

252 SpA Mega Charizard Y Solar Beam vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Azumarill: 364-430 (90 - 106.4%) -- 43.8% chance to OHKO

252 SpA Mega Charizard Y Fire Blast vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Landorus-T in Sun: 375-442 (98.1 - 115.7%) -- 87.5% chance to OHKO

252 SpA Mega Charizard Y Fire Blast vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Gliscor in Sun: 399-469 (112.7 - 132.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO

252 SpA Mega Charizard Y Fire Blast vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Mandibuzz in Sun: 328-387 (77.3 - 91.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery


Just like Lucario, there is almost nothing that can safely switch in on Charizard 100% of the time because of it's two megas each with great coverage. Interestingly enough, both Special and Physical Lucario and Mega Charizard X and Y both suffer from four moveslot syndrome. However, if they run the optimal set they can all get past almost all of their counters, but never at the same time. This makes Charizard extremely dangerous as it has potential to get past almost anything in OU. Personally, I think a suspect test for Charizardite (X, Y or both?) is inevitable and will certainly come within the next few rounds. Many of the ban arguements will probably argue that nothing can switch into it safely and many of the not ban arguements will probably argue that it has a severe case of four moveslot syndrome and a nasty Stealth Rock weakness. I'm not saying that Charizardite (X or Y) is broken or deserves a suspect test, I'm merely pointing out that a suspect test will come and this is what both sides will argue with.

As Lucarionite and (possibly) Genesect leave OU in the coming days an empty hole will be left within the OU tier. As I see it, Charizard will probably rise to the occasion and take Lucario's place as the supreme offensive mega. But, there's also Mega Pinsir, who is very threatening and powerful as well, and if not Charizard he is probably next in line to Mega Lucario's throne. Also, we can't forget Scarfed Jirachi who won't be completely outclassed by Genesect anymore. So, who do you guys think will be "The Next Big Thing"?

 

[skies]

Honestly, neither are game breaking, as Mega Charizard Y is walled by Chansey:
252 SpA Mega Charizard Y Focus Blast vs. 4 HP / 252 SpD Eviolite Chansey: 156-184 (24.2 - 28.6%) -- 98.6% chance to 4HKO
252 SpA Mega Charizard Y Fire Blast vs. 4 HP / 252 SpD Eviolite Chansey in Sun: 160-190 (24.9 - 29.5%) -- 100% chance to 4HKO
and Mega Charizard X is walled by umm nothing off the top of my head, it is the more threatening in my opinion. But both are weak to SR, with Y being 50% weak to it. They're both great, but not game breaking in my personal opinion.

 

[U-Ralph]

The thing is, it's quite difficult to know what set charizard is running before it's evolved; you can always trying to guess, but without a 100% chance to succeed ( as it is/was for mega lucario ).

The best checks for both of them are scarfed dragon such as Garchomp or Lati@s since they still outspeed Charizard after one dance and can threaten back whith their powerful stab.

But once the evolving time is over, both of them are quite manageable (maybe charizard-x less than the y version) : because of the rock weakness, their moderate speed, the lack of priority moves, ...

For pinsir the issue is quite different : it has only one viable set ( sword dancer ) but what a set. It can OHKO nearly all the meta after one SD thanks to a good coverage moves, a good speed, and a strong priority move. That force every team to have at least one check for it. The most efficient are skarmory, Rotom-W and Zapdos. But when they are gone, it's gg for Pinsir.

 

[Haze Milotic]

The "Next Big Thing" will be what is currently in the S-Rank right now. Sure, the Charizard evolutions are up there, but as Chesnaught said, neither are game breaking. Both have very predictable movesets (especially Y) that you can exploit with the right Pokemon. Charizard-Y is walled by Chansey and totally walled by Heatran unless it runs Earthquake. Charizard-X is almost completely walled by a RestTalk Gyarados, Hippowdon, and Choice Scarf Garchomp, which I've noticed has popped up a lot more in my most recent battles. So...yeah. Not game-breaking, but both are powerful.

 

[neooo]

HBut both are weak to SR, with Y being 50% weak to it. They're both great, but not game breaking in my personal opinion.

It's very rare that Charizard users don't lead with Charizard.

 

[skies]

It's very rare that Charizard users don't lead with Charizard.

Except that they switch eventually, say if you do bring in Chansey. And what if they're paired up against something like Terrakion? They're not always going to stay in.

 

[probationsmack]

I think Charizard X is the only one that is worthy of suspect status. You don't even have to think very long to think of what can counter Charizard Y. Almost every weather starter will effectively neuter it upon switching in. Sure, Y has shenanigans and reasons to wait to mega evolve for that situation, but there's nothing wrong with SOME prediction factor. The x version however can't really be hard countered due to Y existing in the first place and until the situation is clear he may have already set up a dragon dance. At this point its almost impossible to effectively counter it sheer power with a defensive pivot and only very specific checks can hope to dissuade it from going on a rampage due to it being resistant or neutral to most priority. Furthermore you may be up against those bulky WoW+Roost variants that are just as effective. If Charizard ever gets scrutiny, I hope each stone is weighed differently in discussion, as long as there is only one variant to consider there should only be reason to ban one.

edit: Cloud nine assault vest lickilicky just popped into my head. I wonder if thats practical...

 

[Jack Meister]

While I agree that Charizard may be the next big thing once Genesect and Lucario get the boot, I don't think that it's broken enough to warrant a ban. It's obvious that something has to be the best offensive threat out there in OU when Lucario and Genesect are gone, but it doesn't mean that it should warrant a suspect test. We might as well ban everything if that's the case. Lucario and Genesect deserved a suspect test because they are in fact, broken. Charizard doesn't even come close to being broken. It's just plainly annoying that people think that every top threat deserves a ban.

 

[Chou Toshio]

I don't think that this thread discusses anything that couldn't be discussed in the OU general thread-- and I don't think that its good that this thread boarders on "what's the next suspect??" so... going to lock it for now. If another mod thinks there's something to explore here, feel free to unlock. charizard does need to go though