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NOC Tracker Jailer Follower - Game Thread - Day 4!

And obviously there's 2 scum left and aside from scenario 1 you have more than 2 scum so the purpose of your post literally can't be to check connection reads

If I flip scum phoopes and pulsar aren't both scum because there's only 1 scum left, it's literally impossible

and if you're working from an impossible conclusion and trying to backdate probabilities instead of hard conclusions, those probabilities are faulty because you're starting from an impossible place (this phrasing sucks but I hope it makes sense)
 
If it's about being extreme and trying to towncore people... me and Miyami could absolutely be scumbuds, y'know? Your post is saying we couldn't be, but we could! scumbuds disagree on D1 all the time, there's nothing preventing two scumbuds taking different strategies
 
##VOTE: Peum

I'm afraid you're gonna need to continue defending your rationale for voting me while townreading me, or change your vote

If you do neither you're not trying to solve the game lol
 
I just learned I'm doing nye today not tomorrow (well uh, it's starting today and will finish on new years day lol) so I'm gonna be unavail from in a few hours so lets get this sorted now
 
this won't be a like "staying over at a friends house and having a few drinks but being able to catch up on the game in-bed by myself after" it's more of a "staying over at a friends house and having a few drugs and then all sleeping on the floor in the lounge together after" so this time around when I say I'll be unavail it's real x3
 
genisu said:
lists are ordered within
TOWN
genisu
Peum
Celever
jalmont
NULL
ShyPebble havent seen him talk tm, nothing of note though

phoopes didnt really like the slot d1 but the d2 posting is slightly improving
pulsar512b afk, which she does as either alignment
ImaginaryNeon always null
SCUM
AirC- hated his d1 iso, literally lied to try to get sm1 off of scum
8. Miyami~~~ immediately went on des, lowkey not sure about this one but what if its just bussing
Dead by Daylight: hated his posting yesterday, i remember giving reasoning so its weird that people are like he just voted for no reason.
8. Miyami~~~ immediately went on des, lowkey not sure about this one but what if its just bussing
i REALLY dont think the des wagon is clean completely, and ive seen dbd try to make these big risky plays that arent actually good before, so i think its most likely just him.
on another note, i think dbd vs celever is TvS and dbd is much scummier
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my least favorite post so far, you're trying to tell me that 2 scum (Miyami/DBD) hardbussed their teammate day 1?

I am only up to this point and missing any future developments but Celever/DBD is 85% TvT and I would say the 15% is mostly just tinfoiling
 
joey said:
my least favorite post so far, you're trying to tell me that 2 scum (Miyami/DBD) hardbussed their teammate day 1?
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I guess I should retract somewhat before I make assumptions, genisu I know that Miyami/DBD are your scumreads at that point, do you think they are scum together or would one of them flipping scum impact your read on the other?
 
Celever said:
##VOTE: Peum

I'm afraid you're gonna need to continue defending your rationale for voting me while townreading me, or change your vote

If you do neither you're not trying to solve the game lol
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Your readings of my post have so many missinterpretations that I dont know if you're doing them in bad faith or if you simply dont understand, and I dont have the time to clarify them all, so just read again I guess
 
Peum said:
Your readings of my post have so many missinterpretations that I dont know if you're doing them in bad faith or if you simply dont understand, and I dont have the time to clarify them all, so just read again I guess
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…well I guess I’m voting you then lol

I’m afraid you look like frozen scum right now
 
Celever said:
hm.

There's a lot that I'd like to like about this post. I like the work of looking at different worlds -- by all means it's the same thing I was doing yesterday, and a large part of why I want to vote DBD (as I said yesterday) is to at least resolve the "was des bussed or not" question because if she was bussed DBD is responsible for it.

It's far more sensible for me to try to resolve the bussing world considering I also actually scumread DBD so I don't have to vote out town in order to close the possibility (which Peum by all means is claiming to be doing here, he openly doesn't think I'm scum and he's correct not to think that)

The issue with the worldbuilding here is world 3. World 3 isn't one of the potential worlds we're dealing with here. When you worldbuild in mafia you have to assume your enemies are playing well. Even if they're not playing well, they'll get caught up in one of the worlds anyway, but when you assume they're NOT playing well you're always missing a world.

Here's world 3:

Scenario Three: Kickback

In this scenario, mafia has seen town not directly going for them, and has decided not to rock the boat. This could be informed by IRL (maybe they're legit busy) or it's not and it's pure strategy, or it's a combination of both. No one's giving up; instead they're making an informed choice to let town fight amongst themselves without their input, maybe occasionally stirring the pot but largely staying out of the major fights of the day. This gives them maximum manoeuvrability moving forward, without having to put a stake in the ground and vote out town themselves today, improving their positioning in the longterm

Likeliest Mafia:
genisu, ShyPebble, AirC/joey, Peum, Neon

Still Plausible Mafia (interfacing but not hard pushing within the major fight of the day, since Peum's worlds are focussed on the thunderdome so this category has to exist for each world and he left them out):
- DBD (roped into the fight by me, didn't have the choice to slink back but could be paired with someone who is)
- Miyami / phoopes / jalmont (TvTing the thunderdome and focussing pushes elsewhere fits into this strategy)

Yup, that's most of the game.
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You're forgetting World 4, wherein I am actively putting crack in the water supply as we speak.
 
look Celever I agree that Peum is probably scum, but we now have votes on four different people (genisu, Peum, you, DBD). I would like to see vote consolidation not more vote splitting. Does this mean you think Peum and DBD are the solve? I reallllllly do not see that

genisu and Peum are much more likely. would love to see a genisu vote from you
 
phoopes said:
look Celever I agree that Peum is probably scum, but we now have votes on four different people (genisu, Peum, you, DBD). I would like to see vote consolidation not more vote splitting. Does this mean you think Peum and DBD are the solve? I reallllllly do not see that

genisu and Peum are much more likely. would love to see a genisu vote from you
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as stated before, I think genisu is town tho so that would be very unlikely to happen!
 
I think genisu has lowk pushed the gamestate a lot with his posts despite not doing it in a showy way, I get the impression his posts come from a legit solvy place, none of his thread positioning really makes any sense for him to put himself in if he is mafia bc it exposes him to getting voted out (which is, yk, happening)
 
Peum x DBD could potentially be the solve because Peum's entire wallpost led to a conclusion of voting out DBD or Miyami being optimal and then he chose to just, not do that and vote me instead despite it contradicting his own logic. So yeah, it's on the table

Peum x genisu is also on the table if I take my genisu townread out of the equation because they have had some soft buddying from both sides (the genisu townread on Peum + the Peum putting genisu in mixed in every world which I think is probably not actually correct worldbuilding which shields genisu from votes)

the conclusion of this would, tbf, be to vote Peum because he can partner with the other 2 wagons, but actually DBD x genisu is also on the table as a pair so it's kinda just a triangle
 
I'm #AboveTheInfluence and am parked on genisu at the moment. Like I said I think Peum is the other scum, so if we can rally a Peum lynch I will be on board eventually. I am not going to be the first one to switch though that's for damn sure. jalmont voted for Peum before IIRC, so I would like to see what he thinks too.
Celever said:
I think genisu has lowk pushed the gamestate a lot with his posts despite not doing it in a showy way, I get the impression his posts come from a legit solvy place, none of his thread positioning really makes any sense for him to put himself in if he is mafia bc it exposes him to getting voted out (which is, yk, happening)
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I agree genisu is exposing himself with his posts but I think he's just a yapper. Like when have you seen him keep it lowkey? I feel like taking a step back would be waaaay out of character for him and suspicious
 
phoopes said:
I'm #AboveTheInfluence and am parked on genisu at the moment. Like I said I think Peum is the other scum, so if we can rally a Peum lynch I will be on board eventually. I am not going to be the first one to switch though that's for damn sure. jalmont voted for Peum before IIRC, so I would like to see what he thinks too.

I agree genisu is exposing himself with his posts but I think he's just a yapper. Like when have you seen him keep it lowkey? I feel like taking a step back would be waaaay out of character for him and suspicious
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fwiw when I will be #UnderTheInfluence I'll prob check my phone at some point, if you spam ping me with a vote that saves me and votes out someone else later on (like idk before 11PM GMT if gamestate moves) I'll prob vote for it in the moment

this post will certainly have 0 repercussions for me and is not the exact type of post that got you voted out last game :wo:
 
also wait do you not think genisu has been lowk this game? we're just reading his tone differently if so

I think he's been lowk the whole time like he's not getting into fights or arguments. he's just popping in, interacting a bit maybe (but pleasantly when he does which is a bit less memorable) and giving sincere thoughts on the game, is my interpretation of his playing

like I don't think he's been yapping at all lol we're just way different here
 
you know what fair enough I just iso'd him and there's far less than I remembered lol

but Peum is in his good graces as of his last reads list so to me that doesn't look good for genisu
 
yeah and that's fair, if Peum does flip red it will up genisu's scum probability quite a bit for me

but if genisu's scumminess is in large part contingent on Peum being scum, we have to know for sure that Peum is scum first before we vote genisu for it right
 
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