Tournament UPL XII - Week Three

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Vertigo

new weapons, same war
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Commencement<<

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vs
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Dangerous Dracovish (7) vs (5) Defiant Durians
SV Ubers: myjava vs SiTuM
SV Ubers: etern vs bbeeaa
SV Ubers: Shuwri vs TPP
SS Ubers: baconeatinassassin vs Frozoid
USUM Ubers: Rhmsitb vs March Fires
ORAS Ubers: keys vs Royal1604
BW Ubers: Evuelf vs LpZ
DPP Ubers: susciety vs Staxi
ADV Ubers: Heysup vs Fogbound Lake
GSC Ubers: dawnbuster vs crying
RBY Ubers: YBW vs BlazingDark
Multigen Bo3: Icemaster vs Larry

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vs
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Choice Bandits (6) vs (6) Manly Melmetals
SV Ubers: abriel vs emoxu9
SV Ubers: Lana vs 7u9i2
SV Ubers: Nyx vs fade
SS Ubers: Aberforth vs Beraldo
USUM Ubers: Cam vs Gondra
ORAS Ubers: The Strap vs MZ
BW Ubers: Kebabe vs The Dovahneer
DPP Ubers: Dave vs Piyu
ADV Ubers: Vileman vs 64 Squares
GSC Ubers: Rubyblood vs vani
RBY Ubers: gastlies vs NotVeryCake
Multigen Bo3: Trade vs skimmythegod

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vs
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Void Villains (4) vs (8) Eternal Voyagers
SV Ubers: SoulWind vs Kate
SV Ubers: JJ09LIE vs elodin
SV Ubers: tier vs Mashing
SS Ubers: Fc vs lotiasite
USUM Ubers: Paycard vs FadedCharm
ORAS Ubers: Mada vs Tenebricite
BW Ubers: 3d vs Hack
DPP Ubers: London Beats vs robjr
ADV Ubers: Mako vs temp
GSC Ubers: spell vs BigFatMantis
RBY Ubers: Torchic vs Unowndragon
Multigen Bo3: Gtcha vs pdt

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vs
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DaReal Drizzlers (7) vs (5) Devastating Dialgas
SV Ubers: Raph369 vs LouisIX
SV Ubers: Skyiew vs Reje
SV Ubers: Taka vs RichardMillePlain
SS Ubers: Manaphy vs QWILY
USUM Ubers: PurpleGatorade vs Master Chief
ORAS Ubers: Hoopas Dad vs freezai
BW Ubers: Blim vs Monai
DPP Ubers: Inspirited vs shrang
ADV Ubers: violet river vs MMII
GSC Ubers: Conflict vs cyberacc
RBY Ubers: SaDiSTiCNarwhal vs Micciu
Multigen Bo3: Ainzcrad vs entrocefalo

The deadline for this round is Sunday, June 23rd at 11:59 PM GMT-4.
 
Dangerous Dracovish (5) vs (7) Defiant Durians - close one, can see myself being wrong
SV Ubers: myjava vs SiTuM - situm is a scary guy tbh and javas gave last week was a bit meh if memory serves me correctly
SV Ubers: etern vs bbeeaa - etern had a cool team last week regardless bbeeaa is my goat and this looks like a fun game. Gl both
SV Ubers: Shuwri vs TPP - I honestly cant recall either of TPPs games so I imagine they were uneventful
SS Ubers: baconeatinassassin vs Frozoid - Atomic Bomb vs Sleeping Child, this is gonna be an uphill battle af
USUM Ubers: Rhmsitb vs March Fires - tape clause ur fucked
ORAS Ubers: keys vs Royal1604 - I got Royal on top, dude is consistent af gl both tho
BW Ubers: Evuelf vs LpZ - LpZ is just a winner, well and truly hard to predict against in any tier
DPP Ubers: susciety vs Staxi - happy I called this last week, susciety is definitely the strongest dpp in the pool for me
ADV Ubers: Heysup vs Fogbound Lake - Heysup probs played this when it was cg so he is favored
GSC Ubers: dawnbuster vs crying - boring gen who cares
RBY Ubers: YBW vs BlazingDark - both lost last week but I Rmbr blazingdarks name from somewhere
Multigen Bo3: Icemaster vs Larry - icemaster wont be losing any time soon here

Choice Bandits (6) vs (6) Manly Melmetals
SV Ubers: abriel vs emoxu9 - abriel haxdd his opp to a new universe
SV Ubers: Lana vs 7u9i2 - Loat? Gana?
SV Ubers: Nyx vs fade - lord help me if he brings Fairyceus offense again and wins
SS Ubers: Aberforth vs Beraldo - seems me and ice were both wrong abt this Aberforth prometean ehy?
USUM Ubers: Cam vs Gondra - zzzz
ORAS Ubers: The Strap vs MZ - yeah the strap is getting fucking smashed
BW Ubers: Kebabe vs The Dovahneer - meh boring hope we at least see cool builds
DPP Ubers: Dave vs Piyu - old man vs the new generation. Get ur tickets this is Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul but actually interesting
ADV Ubers: Vileman vs 64 Squares - zzzz sad I need to see either play
GSC Ubers: Rubyblood vs vani - vani goat, once again the only person to save this tier
RBY Ubers: Ctown6 vs NotVeryCake - ctown lost to barrier m2? I called that shit was a gas set and they all clowned me.
Multigen Bo3: Trade vs skimmythegod - this is surprising close. Don’t think I have a really favorite but perhaps skimmy is slightly better as a player


DaReal Drizzlers (3) vs (9) Devastating Dialgas - damn I got some resentment or smth cus I think yall are gonna get fucking smashed apparently
SV Ubers: Raph369 vs yovan33321 - imo raph played well against me, expect them to win
SV Ubers: Skyiew vs Reje - what you doing up from your nap old man? In SV no less, you better win tho king
SV Ubers: Taka vs RichardMillePlain - RMP clause
SS Ubers: Manaphy vs QWILY - I wanna see Qwily win cus that’s my guy
USUM Ubers: PurpleGatorade vs Master Chief - ooo cool lil fite, both won last week. I’ll favor MC but no gaurentees in this one that’s for sure
ORAS Ubers: Hoopas Dad vs freezai - nm to say people gas freezai
BW Ubers: Blim vs Monai - monai recently rolled me so he is the goat
DPP Ubers: Inspirited vs shrang - shrang is a chef I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win but both are competent
ADV Ubers: violet river vs MMII - yeah violet rivers is an Olympic level haxer
GSC Ubers: Conflict vs cyberacc - conflict clause
RBY Ubers: SaDiSTiCNarwhal vs CollectorEly - Ngl narwhal got some universal rby moment hax g1 vs torchic last week to the extent where I stopped watching and only recently learned torchic won, I assume narwhal will keep it up
Multigen Bo3: Ainzcrad vs entrocefalo - entrooooooo

Icemaster predicts now.
 
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Dangerous Dracovish (5) vs (7) Defiant Durians

These two teams are in a difficult position rn since they both only have 1 point (1 lose 1 tie). Disapointing start from the vishes as they were, in my opinion, one of the favorite teams. It's now time for them to grab some points. On the other side, Durians also had a big lose vs Eternal Voyagers, they will have to wake up now if they want to be in the top 4.


SV Ubers: myjava vs SiTuM
SV Ubers: etern vs bbeeaa
SV Ubers: Shuwri vs TPP
SS Ubers: baconeatinassassin vs Frozoid
USUM Ubers: Rhmsitb vs March Fires Rhm is strong but March Fires is stronger
ORAS Ubers: keys vs Royal1604 Cool match up
BW Ubers: Evuelf vs LpZ
DPP Ubers: susciety vs Staxi
ADV Ubers:
Heysup vs Fogbound Lake
GSC Ubers: dawnbuster vs crying
RBY Ubers: YBW vs BlazingDark RBY
Multigen Bo3: Icemaster vs Larry

Choice Bandits (6) vs (6) Manly Melmetals

Very difficult start for the Choices Bandits, they have 0 points. Tho they were a very unlucky last week and I think this is a good team. Melmetals did a very good draft in sv with underrated players, I think they are one of the favorite teams to win the tour alongside the dialgas.


SV Ubers: abriel vs emoxu9 Idk the players but I'll vote for emoxu9 cause Melmetals sv is very strong
SV Ubers: Lana vs 7u9i2 the goat
SV Ubers: Nyx vs fade
SS Ubers: Aberforth vs Beraldo
USUM Ubers: Cam vs Gondra
ORAS Ubers: The Strap vs MZ
BW Ubers: Kebabe vs The Dovahneer Kebabe is the goat but I could see an upset from Dovah
DPP Ubers: Dave vs Piyu Cool match up, I think Dave got this tho
ADV Ubers: Vileman vs 64 Squares
GSC Ubers: Rubyblood vs vani
RBY Ubers: Ctown6 vs NotVeryCake
Multigen Bo3: Trade vs skimmythegod


Void Villains (5) vs (7) Eternal Voyagers

Eternal Voyagers have done very well so far, i think not many people expected them to perform at this lvl. Their sv is really good and they are also pretty strong in old gens. Void Villains also have a very good sv, it'll be interesting to see.

SV Ubers: SoulWind vs Kate
SV Ubers: JJ09LIE vs elodin
SV Ubers: tier vs Mashing very cool mu, i think it'll be close
SS Ubers: Fc vs lotiasite
USUM Ubers: Paycard vs FadedCharm
ORAS Ubers: Ayu vs Lasen
BW Ubers: 3d vs Hack
DPP Ubers: London Beats vs robjr
ADV Ubers: Mako vs temp
GSC Ubers: spell vs BigFatMantis
RBY Ubers: Torchic vs Unowndragon
Multigen Bo3: Gtcha vs pdt i have no ideas
 
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SPOILERS AHEAD
!!! UPLXII VOLUME 3 LEAKS !!!


Vertigo was a bit too bummed out from writing the script he left his room open so I've got my hands on few pages from the next chapters

Dangerous Dracovish vs Defiant Durians arc

SV Ubers: myjava vs SiTuM - the fan favourite myjava pulls out ancient weapons from the javanese jungles that keeps SiTuM out of his senses for a good time, but SiTuM's modern trickery pulls through. It's revealed in the end SiTuM was just playing around and myjava never really stood a chance. Still a very well written fight

USUM Ubers: Rhmsitb vs March Fires - Honestly anyone that's been reading the manga would have seen it coming. Rohitman's performance has been down lately but the Fires have gotten a buff due to the El Niño event, In the end rhm gets much needed character development after being inspired by March Fire's Radiating Aura

DPP Ubers: susciety vs Staxi - The Susciety is rotten to its core and it's upto Doctor Staxi to get rid of the pestilence. Staxi is revealed to mean Syringe Taxi and doc injects susciety with Antibiotics, Staxi not having the intention to kill but to heal causes him lots of trouble, I couldn't see the next pages but from what I've seen Staxi should win (70-30)

ADV Ubers: Heysup vs Fogbound Lake - Heysup continues being a comical relief character, The haxxes are funny as well although Vertigo hinted at Heysup being secretly overpowered just unlucky.

Multigen Bo3: Icemaster vs Larry - Larry being a generalist seemed to have the advantage on a bo3 vs an ice specialist but our blue eyed wizard seems to maintain his cool, Chapter is purely icemaster styling on the audience

Choice Bandits vs Manly Melmetals spin off arc


SV Ubers: Lana vs 7u9i2 - 7u9i2's Switcheroo causes Lana's head to go below their feet, and vertigo making puns you can figure out what happens later if you take the head (L) and put it below the feet (ana)


ORAS Ubers: The Strap vs MZ - The Strap is "Tight" , I am afraid I can't explain it because English isn't my native language but oh god


BW Ubers: Kebabe vs The Dovahneer - Dovah eats the kebab but not from his mouth

DPP Ubers: Dave vs Piyu - Really just another chapter of Piyu glazing, Hyping him as the next big bad for the Durians

ADV Ubers: Vileman vs 64 Squares - Vileman didn't realize how much more a vile man 64 Squares is


RBY Ubers: Ctown6 vs NotVeryCake - Ctown's Contrary causes NotVeryCake to become VeryCake and Ctown6 gets Ctown9ed

Multigen Bo3: Trade vs skimmythegod - Trade is winning by trading a lot and turning skimmythegod to shittythehog,skinnythelog,stirrythejog but STD uses his bcom powers to trade his loss for Trade's victory

Void Villains vs Eternal Voyagers filler arc

ORAS Ubers: Ayu vs Lasen - Lasen is losing at first but then Lasen realizes that he is 2% Indian then a third eye erupts in between his forehead and he learns that Ayu means Age in Hindi and Lasen means Garlic, He then makes the connection that Ayu doesn't age because he's a vampire and Lasen is the natural counter to vampires and proceeds to one shot ayu with his new technique The Garlic Beam

DPP Ubers: London Beats vs robjr - We all know robber beats London and not London beats robber


DaReal Drizzlers vs Devastating Dialgas One Shot novel

SV Ubers: Raph369 vs yovan33321 - Raph is a Monster simp and starts dancing like a bandar just because yovan sounds like Johan, He feels like surrendering against the German but Is his Frenchie heart protesting against the constant memeing by countries with lower war victories than France? (i.e every country)

SV Ubers: Skyiew vs Reje - Reje was sealed away so he's a bit rusty but since it's an introduction of Reje to the newer fanbase and vertigo has to keep the old fans happy, Reje easily tears apart Skyiew restating the reason he was sealed


SV Ubers: Taka vs RichardMillePlain - RMP gets owned and he starts crying, but now a river flows through the plains and he evolves into RichardMilleFertilePlain and sows his seeds all over Taka, you'd think Taka would lose now but Taka doesn't give a ratsass about your opinion and proceeds to give RMFP a humiliating beatdown the whole chapter

USUM Ubers: PurpleGatorade vs Master Chief - Master Chief sacrifices his narcissism thus he lets go of the I component and it fills the void inside him thus becoming MasterChef, then he throws away PurpleGatorade like any true chef would
 
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64 Squares vs Heysup
:deoxys-defense::salamence::groudon::latias::blissey::ho-oh: vs :jirachi::groudon::latios::kyogre::rayquaza::mewtwo:
A very interesting matchup. 64 squares opts for the tried and true deo-d stall by mitana/henri while heysup brings a very unconventional double kaiju structure. Heysup's jirachi lead opens the game with a quick bslam para but 64's deo-d is clearly the winner for the start of this match as it gets a turn 1 spike up against a no spin balance and a turn 2 knock off on heysup's groudon. Heysup goes for the sd to start his own pressure and ends up trading toxic poison for roughly 60% on salamence. There's a cool sequence that happens here where Heysup Swords Dances to punish a protect stall while 64 sends out his own groudon to cover for rock slide. This switch also covers SD by forcing heysup to 50/50 between attacking the groudon in front or reading the salamence. 64 calls the coin flip correctly by harding salamence into the earthquake and cleans up the groudon with protect into faster flamethrower. Heysup is quite behind in the game so he sends out Latios and tries to immediately double switch to Kyogre but 64 had no real reason not to get scrape extra leftovers with protect since he has blissey to cover for any latios nonsense. Heysup goes for another double switch to Jirachi since it beats toxic from salamence while also winning the 1v1 against a lati@s switch if 64 decides to respect kyogre. In response, 64 sends back out his deoxys-defense to knock off jirachi's leftovers so that it'll be much harder for heysup to keep his cm latias check alive. We see 64's blissey briefly but once paralysis happens, it retreats for nat cure while heysup retreats as well to try to punish a switch or aromatherapy with his rayquaza. Unfortunately, it meets 64's groudon and is forced to fallback to latios. Solarbeam from latios is then revealed but 64 had no real reason to go for a trade at only +1 so it instead just gives him a free opportunity to cleric away status from his team. This does at least allow for rayquaza to finally start clicking attacks but there's just too much for it to work through between ho-oh, salamence, deo-d, and groudon all being valid switch-ins. 64 decides to send out ho-oh first, likely because it's the least useful member on his team at the given time but it does have the drawback of not really doing anything besides pressure pp stalling until a potential hp fly crit. As such, he quickly decides to bring out salamence afterwards to try and get status onto the rayquaza. Heysup prefers for latios to eat that toxic but the rayquaza doesn't retreat empty handed since it left both ho-oh and salamence at roughly 50% meaning neither can afford to switch directly into ray's hp fly without finding an opportunity to heal first. Heysup takes full advantage of this with a rayquaza double switch on the forced blissey. Unfortunately for him though, deo-d is still quite healthy as well as faster meaning it can very safely switch into hp fly (or a coverage option) and recover back to 100% while pp stalling with pressure. Even a potential crit would only have a 50% chance to ohko so the odds are very much in 64's favor. Heysup needs para on that deo d before he can attempt more progress with rayquaza so he accepts fire punch chip on jirachi, in exchange. To an extent, it's a risky line since 64 is specifically looking for jirachi damage to open up his latias win patch but heysup can't really afford to play an extended game vs that threat, anyways. He needs to play proactively by aggressively pushing forward his own wincons, which is exactly what he does. After the paralysis, switching to kyogre covers fire punch while also punishing a blissey switch since heysup can abuse her with subcm. This plays out exactly in his favor as 64 tries to toxic as he subs up and is thus forced to retreat to latias without healing deo-d's status. Things go even better for heysup as his +1 kyogre lands a critical hit on latias as it is roar'd out. The fact that latias even survives reveals her significant spdef invest as well as kyogre's minimal spatk evs. The crit was likely a low damage roll which makes it a bittersweet stroke of luck? In any case, a 10% latias isn't going to be much of a check to that kyogre anymore especially since heysup's other 4 pokemon all ensure that it'll be incredibly unlikely that she can ever use recover. Since jirachi is what was pulled out by the roar, 64 takes advantage of deo's paralysis by sending it out first on the forced shadow ball and then sending out groudon so that it's impossible for heysup to double switch to his kyogre with rain up. This play works out as heysup sends out his kyogre the same turn that groudon comes in meaning that the two kaiju face off but with the sun in play. 64 expects heysup to retreat his kyogre since it can't break blissey under the sun and the blob a chance to remove deo's paralysis will undermine rayquaza's pressure. From heysup's perspective, though, a healthy groudon is itself a roadblock to rayquaza especially since it makes it harder to click rock slide to break through salamence and ho-oh. Latios is also pretty weak from and can't afford to take more damage nor can it deny blissey heal bell, anyways. As such, he stays to ice beam as 64 tries to catch latios with hp ghost. At this point, 64 knows that his groudon is faster than kyogre but also unable to finish it off with earthquake. Since subcm kyogre is such a threat after the crit on latias and since going blissey exposes him to a rayquaza double switch (which is possible since it's also safe into earthquake), 64 decides to go for damage on the kyogre while heysup sticks with his plan of elminating the rock slide check and winning the weather war for his unrevealed subcm mewtwo. 64 then sends out latias and decides to raw dragon claw instead of recover to avoid another crit as well as deny leftovers recovery since the spike in play will prevent kyogre at current health from ever clicking substitute again. Heysup therefore chooses to sac his jirachi to try to revenge kill with latios. This does mean that blissey gets to heal bell but heysup can keep momentum by sacing his kyogre for rain and chip so that his rayquaza can come back in and threaten with hp fly. Deo-d may no longer be paralyzed but it is chipped enough that a hp fly crit could actually kill. He fishes for the crit for two turns but decides to punish the recover with a free mewtwo switch so that he could save his 9 remaining hp fly pp. This forces 64 to take thunder chip on his whirlwind ho-oh which he is then forced to sac as rayquaza is pulled out. Latias gets to theaten a revenge kill, though, which heysup has to allow since he can't afford her being healthy enough to check mewtwo. He tries to revenge kill the latias back with his own lati twin which, if he were faster, would mean that he could force extra chip or, ideally, a thunder para on blissey to improve subcm mewtwo's odds of winning. However, his latios is slower which basically means that he has lost the game without another crit or some thunder cheese. The game continues for 7 more turns as mewtwo fishes for the miracle but it's in vain. It's worth pointing out that on turn 58, 64 squares decides to recover instead of dragon claw. This play doesn't do anything to prevent a sub cm thunder ice beam mewtwo sweep. On the contrary, it gives the mewtwo a slightly larger hax potential. The recover wasn't a choke, though. In testament to heysup's creativity, 64 decided to accept that extra hax potential in exchange for not losing to a theoretical sub cm thunder recover mewtwo variant. That extra hax potential that came with the decision was erased with a dragon claw crit on the following turn, forcing heysup to freeze or bust against blissey.

Heysup played the game really well but it was a very difficult matchup for him to win even with the big latias crit. 64 prepped better for this week and was able to match heysup's level of play to secure the win.

Fogbound Lake vs temp
:deoxys-defense::groudon::ho-oh::blissey::latias::lugia: vs :latios::kyogre::skarmory::dugtrio::deoxys-attack:
Fogbound switches it up from week 1 by bringing a deo-d sunstall. It's a sort of midpoint between the henri/mitana deo-d + mence stall that 64 brought and the more classic sunstall 6 (don, ho-oh, lugia, blissey, latias, forretress). On the other side, temp loads a cb dugtrio skarmbliss(?) team. Dugtrio's niche in the metagame is almost exclusively to prey on blissey (there's also nice lines vs forretress) so, in terms of prep, temp is favored here. In terms of luck, temp is also pretty favored this game. This week is basically temp on the other side of what happened to him week 1, where it was his blissey being preyed on by heysup's wobb as well as being heavily jazzed in the worst ways possible. The turn 13 Skarmory toxic into Dugtrio switch was a pretty sly setup. Fogbound doesn't want to switch any of his fliers into a toxic click nor risk the free whirlwind click from pulling back blissey or his other two grounded pokemon. As such, he decided to stay to force skarmory to whirlwind the blissey while she spams toxic to cover for attempted double switches. Dugtrio is such an uncommon pokemon that it was likely not at all on his mind (I do want to point out that iry is a fan of it, though). That dugtrio crit on blissey didn't really change the interaction much in terms of value but it did mean that Fogbound couldn't determine if it was a cb or a subliechi variant. Latias comes out to revenge kill and muscles past skarmory with +1 dragon claws but then gets crit by the spell tag deo-a when Fogbound was hoping to trade her in for a significant offensive piece on temp's team. He tries to then toxic stall the deo-a but just gets crit again in only 3 turns. There's a cool play where he sends out ho-oh first to bait the coverage (most likely rock slide or thunder given rain) and safely scouts it with groudon while also stalling a turn of toxic for minimal damage. The deo-a leaves the game with another crit, which means that fogbound is later forced to recover off that doubled superpower damage while eating a twave instead of toxic poisoning the slower substitute kyogre. (another major threat to fogbound's team) Since there's not really much point wasting kyogre pp by attacking a sun ho-oh, temp opts to sac his nearly dead dugtrio while also forcing a switch if ho-oh clicks toxic. That turns out to be the case and the dugtrio ends the game with a final cb rock slide crit on deo-d. The game was very likely already decided a few crits ago but there wasn't any desperate room left to find a winpath after the others.

MMII vs Vileman
:mewtwo::mew::groudon::metagross::latios::deoxys-attack: vs :latios::snorlax::groudon::deoxys-attack:
My team for this week. I chose to shadow ball t1 instead of the usual bulk up click because there's no public replays of vileman fighting against a mewtwo lead so I have no way to know how he approaches that matchup. There's usually no reason for a latios to stay in on a mewtwo lead (there are exceptions) but I didn't want to risk the uncertainty of ev spreads, shadow ball damage rolls, and 70% thunder accuracy. Vileman plays it safe by sending out his snorlax. This is more than fine for me, I get to freely click bulk up to scout for protect while also buffing boom damage to ohko steel-types at +3. Vileman chooses to curse which is a reasonable play against unboosted mewtwo. Even if I do have brick break, Vileman could be offensive snorlax with boom or a defensive snorlax with the bulk to risk minimum damage scouting my set/spread. If I'm not brick break, as is the case, curse forces me to eventually click boom and vileman was clearly willing to trade his snorlax for my mewtwo. This trade is also very fine by me since mewtwo is there to make an early 1for1 to limit options against the rest of my offense. I don't get that trade, though, since body slam immediately crits for the ohko. I'm now in the very uncomfortable position of starting the game with 5 pokemon against 6 and the lead snorlax already at +2. At this point, I could try to play it completely safe by sending out mew to click explosion so that I could chip the snorlax enough for a teammate to actually kill it. The issue with this play, though, is that I still don't know for sure if Vileman is running protect or not. Furthermore, even if I get the boom off, the snorlax could be fat enough that my groudon wouldn't be able to finish it off and I'd be forced to superpower with deo-a which would just give Vileman's metagross an easy pursuit trap revenge kill. Best case or worst case, I'm still spending A LOT of resources just to deal with the snorlax so I'm still very much losing the game, just in the slowest and safest way possible. I need a bit of luck if I want to make a comeback so I fully commit to trying to sleep the snorlax with my hypnosis mew. Regardless of ev spread or moveset, I would get two click attempts as long as mew doesn't get hit by a crit or para. Once asleep, I could choose to immediately boom for significant chip and to deny a sleep turn to ease groudon setup afterwards or I could hope for the 3-turn sleep jackpot and switch groudon in raw so that I could save my mew boom/second hypno for later. I'd still be behind in the game but the situation would be much more ambiguous for vileman (does he stay to try to wake up and risk feeding me setup on a 3 turn sleep or switch to conserve momentum and the sleep sac?) as well as keeping the value gap as small as possible. Anyways, I just miss both my hypnosis and the game ends with me desperately fishing for miracles. That's just how pokemon is, vileman played really well to maximize his odds and not choke his lead. I wish he had accepted the bo3 ;-;


mako vs violet river
:latios::forretress::blissey::ho-oh::groudon::mewtwo: vs :kyogre::blissey::skarmory::gengar::rayquaza::latias:
Another great game this week! The villains stick with sun teams while the drizzlers bring their second week of rain. This time, though, mako brings a sunstall (with a mewtwo twist!) instead of a sunoffense while violet river debuts with a very standard rain gengar. The lead choice and thunder crit gives mako the initial momentum and allows her to get her first spike on turn 4. Violet adapts in a clever way by choosing to calm mind with her blissey to force mako to respond with either a snorlax or a blissey of her own, both of which are good opportunities for violet river's skarm to get her spike up. A lucky roar pulls blissey back out as mako's forre spins away the spike (although violet was probably looking to get more info on mako's 6) which allows skarm to put that spike back up and then reveal gengar on the second spin attempt. Mako brings out her ho-oh counter and this time she's the one that tries to scout with whirlwind but instead just pulls the same gengar back out when violet tries to scout the hp fly click or groudon double with her skarmory. The second time, violet decides to punish whirlwind with a thunder click and is rewarded with a paralysis into skarmory pull. The second spike goes up in exchange for sacred fire chip, but no burn. The final layer is placed followed mako getting her second as the threat of spin forces gengar back into play. Violet correctly reads the safe ho-oh play from mako and commits to spamming thunder in hopes of a crit or full para to ko through recover attempts. Mako settles for just one recover to bring her ho-oh back to 70%ish and then chooses to send out groudon to reclaim the weather on the free thunder. Seeing gengar as a threat, mako decides to thunder wave with her groudon even if it means taking a wisp for it. Violet recognizes that her gengar is very well positioned against the team revealed so far, especially with ho-oh paralyzed and 3 layers up. As such, she decides to send out kyogre to scout the groudon set since mako is unlikely to eq into levitate gengar and both sd/hp ghost clicks are better punished by kyogre than latias while also putting rain back up. Both players don't want to risk the speed creep war at this point so we latios come in to check surf while rayquaza is revealed to punish earthquake. Both players again decide that they don't want to trade this early (espeed chip on latios is dangerous for mako in dealing with kyogre and a dead rayquaza limits violet's offense) so instead mako's forretress and violet's blissey come in to play. Mako's forre switch is particularly interesting since it both covers the espeed stay as well as punishes the safe blissey with a third spike. Violet reads that spike, though, and risks a spin in exchange for thunder chip. She's rewarded for the good play with another para and brings out gengar to cover spin. Violet keeps the reads going with a wisp into the groudon entry but this time her luck fails her as the wisp misses. She insists on getting that burn (as well as likely anticipating earthquake based on the last gengar vs groudon exchange) but that mako gets that thunder wave she was looking for earlier. With groudon burned, there isn't much risk to sending out kyogre which mako takes advantage of with a slick blissey double switch to cleric away all the status that plagued her team prior. This is a big value setback for violet and the cosmos decides to reward mako's initiative with a toxic dodge on latios into thunder para + full para against violet's blissey. Now ho-oh gets a free sub on the forced soft-boiled and gets to para fish with further sub spam. This forces violet to reveal her roar latias as mako gets to fish for a sacred fire burn from behind her sub. Admittedly, this burn attempt is a bit of a risky play since a burned cm roar latias would be immune to blissey's toxic but the burn doesn't happen and it later turns out that violet is using boltbeam roar latias. This set is a reasonable assumption given the rest of the teams structure (honestly, standard boltbeam refresh would be my first guess and scouting that lets you whirl on the refresh click) and a burn on latias would help a lot with the subcm mewtwo wincon. Latios is pulled out and both players commit to trading blows which reveals that violet's latias is either faster or that both are max speed timid. In any case, mako assumes to move second and retreats to blissey while violet stays to click recover. Gengar comes in on blissey to absorb toxic but mako instead heals off spikes chip. Violet reads mako's retreat by double switching to rayquaza (which covers both groudon and ho-oh) and then uses the threat of rock slide to double again to her latias and mako's forretress replaces ho-oh. This gives violet a free thunder click into a roar read on the softboiled from blissey, which finally reveals mako's final pokemon: mewtwo! Violet's latias thunders as mako's mewtwo boosts with calm mind which is important since it gives violet ev spread information as well as a free thunder para fish. At +1, though, mewtwo's potential ice beam is quite dangerous so violet plays it safe and sends out her cm blissey. Mako doesn't want to risk a cm war this early in the game and so respects the blissey and sends out her ho-oh to phaze out any boosts. Mako also wants to start aggressively phazing so that she can, ideally, force kyogre to eat more spikes chip and thus be more likely to win the weather war. Doing so is important for mako as sun thunder would make it far more likely that mewtwo is able to pressure pp stall out cm blissey. Unfortunately, blissey uses thunder and paralyzes the ho-oh once more. This forces mako to bring out her own blissey instead, which violet reads by sending out rayquaza. (the play would also punish a recover click) Finally, violet's rayquaza can start actually clicking attacks. Mako softboiled's once to scout which move cb ray locks into (dd ray would have been very scary here) and sacs the virtually dead forretress to hidden power flying. Latios comes out to revenge kill and violet river responds in an interesting way based on the prior lati vs lati exchanges. She decides to send out her own latias since it is safe into ice beam, due to latios being in ko range as well as being slower. (or at least mako is unwilling to risk the tie) This latias switch also punishes a recover attempt by threatening to win the 1v1 and allowing violet river to push in more damage with roar pressure. Blissey comes in as latias recovers off the ice beam but, this time, mako decides to click toxic instead of healing her weakened blissey. This ends up catching the rayquaza switch but that's okay for violet since she forces mako to sacrifice groudon (rock slide read probably) and keeps blissey at only 50% with spikes in play. Latios comes in again for the revenge kill and violet decides to sacrifice her own weakened kaiju since she's already won the weather war and because sending out her blissey, albeit safer, would allow for mako to potentially double switch her blissey in and heal. In order to keep mako's blissey in it's vulnerable position, violet sends rayquaza back out to revenge kill with extremespeed. At point, mako needs to rely on lastmon subcm mewtwo to turn the game around so she gives up the latios and sends out ho-oh to recover and force burn on latias. She gets that burn this time and lets ho-oh drop to thunder. Blissey comes out and gets chip on skarmory as well as mewtwo setup as whirl pulls it out. After skarmory drops to psychic, blissey comes in and then fails to pop unboosted substitute with her raw thunder. It's worth noting that earlier calcs reveal this to be a damage roll. CM Blissey is at risk of losing to mewtwo's pressure pp stall if it doesn't manage to get enough good rolls against substitute to force mewtwo to recover and thunder para as it does so. Violet has no reason to risk this yet with 3 other pokemon still on her team so she sends out her latias to recover and roar out the mewtwo. Mako lets this happen as she wants her blissey to die while pushing in as much damage as she can. Violet decides to kill that blissey as quickly as possible by having rayquaza finish it off with hp fly, the threat of which denies mewtwo setup and forces it to psychic into latias. Latias fishes for thunder para as mewtwo stalls out burn damage with substitute spam. The game ends with a rayquaza crit. Mako was probably favored to win that endgame (i'm not lavos calcing shit) but, besides that crit, there were still opportunities for violet to win since blissey thunder can pop mewtwo sub roughly 30% of the time. Blissey didn't have much pp left, though, and violet didn't have a sure way to kill a paralyzed mewtwo since her own gengar was paralyzed. She would have needed to hope for enough thunder rolls to fish for para on recover and then either crit or full para a bunch of times. The ending was a bit unfortunate but the game was really well played by both.



I rambled too much again, sorry :-(
 
Heysup vs Fogbound Lake
Honestly, I'm rooting for fogbound this week. It's unfair to heysup but fogbound has had a rough start this tournament and I really want to see him keep playing adv. Fogbound has been bringing interesting ideas every week so far and I'm curious to see how he will approach the heysup mu. As creative as heysup is, there are some repetitive trends in his building that could be exploited. Will fogbound identify and pressure those weak spots or just get lost and overwhelmed in the heysup sauce?

Vileman vs 64 Squares
Both of these players lost their week 1 matches to then turn things around week 2. 64's prep last week was real straightforward, bring a good team and play a clean game. Vileman I feel like isn't really looking to innovate in the metagame so I reckon we'll see him bringing the meta staples and just focus on taking advantage of his general experience and pokemon fundamentals. Although 64 often has those crafty moveset twists, I suspect the game between these two will just be some good, classic adv ubers. If that's the case, I think it'll be really interesting how they each approach the typical gambits as they try to position their pieces favorably.

Mako vs temp
Will mako bring 3 weeks of sun? Honestly, I think temp is going to be the one to do so and I'm putting my figurative money on there being a Ho-Oh. I think there's been a pretty clear hack + iry influence on temp's team choices so far. I still know very little about mako but she's been bringing solid stuff so far and clearly playing with an understanding of the metagame. I feel like we might see a sort of boomtwo offense or subpetaya deo? Temp's teams for the first two weeks have relied quite a bit on blissey carrying the role of switching into thunders and ice beams on its own. Obviously, there's no guarantee that temp will continue to do so but I don't think the detail slipped mako's attention. I'm no fortune teller, though, so I just hope that temp will get to have a (mostly) clean game this week so that he gets the chance he deserves to really flex his abilities as a player.

vs violet river
The drizzlers are the only team this tournament with a undefeated record in adv ubers so far. Violet's game last week is the singular public replay in existence that I know of from her. On top of that, raph is on her team and he's by far the person that I've played with the most in adv ubers. He basically knows all of my teams so I either have to come up with something completely new or just be really unpredictable in my team choice. In any case, I'm excited to discover just what sort of player violet river is. Good luck, have fun.
 
He tries to revenge kill the latias back with his own lati twin which, if he were faster, would mean that he could force extra chip or, ideally, a thunder para on blissey to improve subcm mewtwo's odds of winning. However, his latios is slower which basically means that he has lost the game without another crit or some thunder cheese. The game continues for 7 more turns as mewtwo fishes for the miracle but it's in vain. It's worth pointing out that on turn 58, 64 squares decides to recover instead of dragon claw. This play doesn't do anything to prevent a sub cm thunder ice beam mewtwo sweep. On the contrary, it gives the mewtwo a slightly larger hax potential. The recover wasn't a choke, though. In testament to heysup's creativity, 64 decided to accept that extra hax potential in exchange for not losing to a theoretical sub cm thunder recover mewtwo variant. That extra hax potential that came with the decision was erased with a dragon claw crit on the following turn, forcing heysup to freeze or bust against blissey.
this is actually not true, you failed to consider that his latias is fast defensive roar. I didn't try to RK it, I actually sacced my Lati to set up a last mon (not roarable) M2 sweep which was my goal from the get-go once I saw his team in full. At that point, it was nearly free and clear since M2 sets up and beats that Lati variant without roar to prevent it from being set up bait. If he switches out, i get +6 on blissey and 2hko easily before i run out of HP for subs and if he stays in I get into 3hko range and sub up and force softboil spam until i paralyze (or eventually get to +6, depending on how many CM's he let me get beforehand). I didn't actually aim to fish for any thunder or ice beam nonsense (not that I wasn't due for something...) I just needed to not get crit at the wrong time while setting up vs. latias. I do think staying in was the right play on his part because his only out was to fish for the crit. I was admittedly (and classically) frustrated because I had been spamming attacks without getting any procs or crits for the entire game, but then Lati got the one needed in exponentially less attempts.
 
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this is actually not true, you failed to consider that his latias is fast defensive roar. I didn't try to RK it, I actually sacced my Lati to set up a last mon (not roarable) M2 sweep which was my goal from the get-go once I saw his team in full. At that point, it was nearly free and clear since M2 sets up and beats that Lati variant without roar to prevent it from being set up bait. If he switches out, i get +6 on blissey and 2hko easily before i run out of HP for subs and if he stays in I get into 3hko range and sub up and force softboil spam until i paralyze (or eventually get to +6, depending on how many CM's he let me get beforehand). I didn't actually aim to fish for any thunder or ice beam nonsense (not that I wasn't due for something...) I just needed to not get crit at the wrong time while setting up vs. latias. I do think staying in was the right play on his part because his only out was to fish for the crit. I was admittedly (and classically) frustrated because I had been spamming attacks without getting any procs or crits for the entire game, but then Lati got the one needed in exponentially less attempts.
Thanks for the response, I very much appreciate it. It's good to know that your endgame plan was formed as early as it was and that you never expected your Latios to outspeed Latias.

I do somewhat disagree with your assessment of the endgame, however. Let's assume the decisions and results are exactly the same up to and including turn 59 except that we'll pretend Latias didn't crit the Mewtwo sub.

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So at this point, Mewtwo is at 18% and sitting behind a damaged Substitute. For turn 60, you can either choose to ohko the latias with Ice Beam to preserve the Substitute or let it pop that Substitute and go for one more Calm Mind before killing it on turn 61.
0 SpA Soul Dew Latias Dragon Claw vs. +3 204 HP / 0 SpD Mewtwo: 62-73 (15.3 - 18%) -- possible 8HKO after Leftovers recovery
0 SpA Soul Dew Latias Dragon Claw vs. +4 204 HP / 0 SpD Mewtwo: 51-61 (12.6 - 15%) -- possibly the worst move ever

So there was no way the Substitute could survive two Dragon Claws.

0 SpA Soul Dew Latias Dragon Claw vs. +5 204 HP / 0 SpD Mewtwo: 45-54 (11.1 - 13.3%) -- possibly the worst move ever
0 SpA Soul Dew Latias Dragon Claw vs. +6 204 HP / 0 SpD Mewtwo: 39-46 (9.6 - 11.3%) -- possibly the worst move ever

Even at +5 and +6, Dragon Claw out damages Leftovers so there was no way for you to get enough health back to setup a Substitute again.

If we assume the first option, then you would be able to attack the Blissey with a +3 Thunder (+3 84+ SpA Mewtwo Thunder vs. 0 HP / 252+ SpD Blissey: 213-251 (32.7 - 38.5%) -- 4% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery) as it pops the damaged Substitute with Seismic Toss. At the end of turn 61, Mewtwo would be at ~30% and Blissey would be at ~47%-52%. 64 would then Softboiled turn 62 as you click Substitute, thus leaving Blissey at full hp and Mewtwo at +3 behind Substitute at ~11%. Since you can't realistically 3HKO Blissey at +3 while Seismic Toss spam would ko you in 3 turns (Mewtwo will be at 24% by the time she pops the Substitute) you would have to just spam attacks and hope for some luck. 64 Squares has no more reason to Softboiled, anymore.

If we assume the second option, then Mewtwo would be ~30% as the Blissey replaces Latias. At this point, the game basically comes down to a 50/50 to decide the match. If 64 clicks Seismic Toss as you Thunder, then the odds are in your favor to win the game. If you click Substitute instead as Blissey damages it, then 64 is very likely the victor due to end of turn leftovers basically pushing Blissey outside of 2HKO range. If 64 squares clicks Softboiled or Toxic on your raw Thunder, then you lose the game to Seismic Toss spam afterwards. If you punish that Thunder read with a Substitute instead, then you very likely win in the way that you described in your post.
+4 84+ SpA Mewtwo Thunder vs. 0 HP / 252+ SpD Blissey: 255-301 (39.1 - 46.2%) -- 53.1% chance to 2HKO 79% Blissey after Leftovers recovery
+4 84+ SpA Mewtwo Thunder vs. 0 HP / 252+ SpD Blissey: 255-301 (39.1 - 46.2%) -- 2.3% chance to 2HKO 85% Blissey after Leftovers recovery


I actually didn't realize that there would be one more 50/50 decision (or damage roll) if the Dragon Claw hadn't crit. It was actually pretty dangerous for 64 to click Recover with his Latias. That turn is where I disagree with you, if 64 Squares never clicks Recover and continues to spam Dragon Claw then it is very unlikely that he loses that endgame. He drops his expected win probability from 90% to basically 50% with his choice to cover for the possibility of Recover Mewtwo. I suppose he just felt confident that he could make the right read or damage rolls if it turned out to be standard SubCM. I do think it's also worth pointing out that this endgame situation was only possible in the first place due to the immediate Kyogre crit against Latias on turn 39. I'm not at all interested in Lavos calcing who is supposed to be the Genuine and Authentic winner of this game, but rather point out that you are being disingenuous on how the dice rolled. I understand the frustrations that come with investing so much time and effort into this game, simply to be punished by the most absurd of probabilities. However, I think it's important to respect the opponent's efforts and ability rather than undermine them with implications that chance alone contributes to their victory. Although, I don't think it was your intention to do so. Thank you again for correcting me about this. I really do think this was a great game that's worth the time to talk about, I certainly learned something in doing so. The two of you played really well and I hope that there's a more satisfying ending when next you meet.
 
Thanks for the response, I very much appreciate it. It's good to know that your endgame plan was formed as early as it was and that you never expected your Latios to outspeed Latias.

I do somewhat disagree with your assessment of the endgame, however. Let's assume the decisions and results are exactly the same up to and including turn 59 except that we'll pretend Latias didn't crit the Mewtwo sub.

So at this point, Mewtwo is at 18% and sitting behind a damaged Substitute. For turn 60, you can either choose to ohko the latias with Ice Beam to preserve the Substitute or let it pop that Substitute and go for one more Calm Mind before killing it on turn 61.
0 SpA Soul Dew Latias Dragon Claw vs. +3 204 HP / 0 SpD Mewtwo: 62-73 (15.3 - 18%) -- possible 8HKO after Leftovers recovery
0 SpA Soul Dew Latias Dragon Claw vs. +4 204 HP / 0 SpD Mewtwo: 51-61 (12.6 - 15%) -- possibly the worst move ever

So there was no way the Substitute could survive two Dragon Claws.

0 SpA Soul Dew Latias Dragon Claw vs. +5 204 HP / 0 SpD Mewtwo: 45-54 (11.1 - 13.3%) -- possibly the worst move ever
0 SpA Soul Dew Latias Dragon Claw vs. +6 204 HP / 0 SpD Mewtwo: 39-46 (9.6 - 11.3%) -- possibly the worst move ever

Even at +5 and +6, Dragon Claw out damages Leftovers so there was no way for you to get enough health back to setup a Substitute again.

If we assume the first option, then you would be able to attack the Blissey with a +3 Thunder (+3 84+ SpA Mewtwo Thunder vs. 0 HP / 252+ SpD Blissey: 213-251 (32.7 - 38.5%) -- 4% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery) as it pops the damaged Substitute with Seismic Toss. At the end of turn 61, Mewtwo would be at ~30% and Blissey would be at ~47%-52%. 64 would then Softboiled turn 62 as you click Substitute, thus leaving Blissey at full hp and Mewtwo at +3 behind Substitute at ~11%. Since you can't realistically 3HKO Blissey at +3 while Seismic Toss spam would ko you in 3 turns (Mewtwo will be at 24% by the time she pops the Substitute) you would have to just spam attacks and hope for some luck. 64 Squares has no more reason to Softboiled, anymore.

If we assume the second option, then Mewtwo would be ~30% as the Blissey replaces Latias. At this point, the game basically comes down to a 50/50 to decide the match. If 64 clicks Seismic Toss as you Thunder, then the odds are in your favor to win the game. If you click Substitute instead as Blissey damages it, then 64 is very likely the victor due to end of turn leftovers basically pushing Blissey outside of 2HKO range. If 64 squares clicks Softboiled or Toxic on your raw Thunder, then you lose the game to Seismic Toss spam afterwards. If you punish that Thunder read with a Substitute instead, then you very likely win in the way that you described in your post.
+4 84+ SpA Mewtwo Thunder vs. 0 HP / 252+ SpD Blissey: 255-301 (39.1 - 46.2%) -- 53.1% chance to 2HKO 79% Blissey after Leftovers recovery
+4 84+ SpA Mewtwo Thunder vs. 0 HP / 252+ SpD Blissey: 255-301 (39.1 - 46.2%) -- 2.3% chance to 2HKO 85% Blissey after Leftovers recovery


I actually didn't realize that there would be one more 50/50 decision (or damage roll) if the Dragon Claw hadn't crit. It was actually pretty dangerous for 64 to click Recover with his Latias. That turn is where I disagree with you, if 64 Squares never clicks Recover and continues to spam Dragon Claw then it is very unlikely that he loses that endgame. He drops his expected win probability from 90% to basically 50% with his choice to cover for the possibility of Recover Mewtwo. I suppose he just felt confident that he could make the right read or damage rolls if it turned out to be standard SubCM. I do think it's also worth pointing out that this endgame situation was only possible in the first place due to the immediate Kyogre crit against Latias on turn 39. I'm not at all interested in Lavos calcing who is supposed to be the Genuine and Authentic winner of this game, but rather point out that you are being disingenuous on how the dice rolled. I understand the frustrations that come with investing so much time and effort into this game, simply to be punished by the most absurd of probabilities. However, I think it's important to respect the opponent's efforts and ability rather than undermine them with implications that chance alone contributes to their victory. Although, I don't think it was your intention to do so. Thank you again for correcting me about this. I really do think this was a great game that's worth the time to talk about, I certainly learned something in doing so. The two of you played really well and I hope that there's a more satisfying ending when next you meet.

You forgot a 3rd option which was my game plan. I will say my odds prior to the damage rolls on my M2 on the first two calm minds (if it did less damage by 1 HP point then I wouldn't need to worry about damage rolls later) were higher than they look here, but I think they were still pretty high.
Turn 59 I CM to +3, I am pretty sure here I had exactly 76 but it's possible I had 75 or 74. Assuming claw doesn't crit and Sub is at low HP.
Turn 60 I CM to +4 he breaks sub (At this turn I had just under 25%, I recall 101 HP (405 max HP) exactly, if I had 102 HP I get another sub and win without relying on the next turn damage roll).
Turn 61 I CM to +5 he drops me down to between just under 12% (48) with a max roll and just under 14% (56) with a min roll, then lefties recovers me to either just over 18 (74) or 20% or so (81).
Turn 62 I KO him with Ice Beam, lefties ticks here to 24(I lose unless I crit or FP thunder) or far, far more likely (I think it's 13+/16), to over 102 HP. If i am exactly 101 then I think I probably still win if I just press thunder because if he softs I can just thunder spam until I can Sub and I don't think Toxic koes me before I ko everything else (I think I only need 3 turns since I OHKO everything else (including D-D).
+5 80+ SpA Mewtwo Thunder vs. 4 HP / 252+ SpD Blissey: 297-350 (45.5 - 53.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Turn 63 I am pretty sure I just 2hko right here most of the time (maybe all of the time), but I also have the option to Sub.

Did I miss something here?

Even the words "immediate crit on Latias on turn 39" sort of refute themselves, being turn 39 and all. I don't think it is disingenuous to suggest that offense should crit more than stall. It is mathematically more likely to happen, and if it does not then the luck is not neutral. Most (substantially all?) of his moves used at that point could not crit. Most of the moves I used could crit or para or something (bearing in mind Jirachi serene grace). It wasn't like a complete shit show, I just found it frustrating that it only took him a few tries after I fished for a lot longer.
 
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You forgot a 3rd option which was my game plan. I will say my odds prior to the damage rolls on my M2 on the first two calm minds (if it did less damage by 1 HP point then I wouldn't need to worry about damage rolls later) were higher than they look here, but I think they were still pretty high.
Turn 59 I CM to +3, I am pretty sure here I had exactly 76 but it's possible I had 75 or 74. Assuming claw doesn't crit and Sub is at low HP.
Turn 60 I CM to +4 he breaks sub (At this turn I had just under 25%, I recall 101 HP (405 max HP) exactly, if I had 102 HP I get another sub and win without relying on the next turn damage roll).
Turn 61 I CM to +5 he drops me down to between just under 12% (48) with a max roll and just under 14% (56) with a min roll, then lefties recovers me to either just over 18 (74) or 20% or so (81).
Turn 62 I KO him with Ice Beam, lefties ticks here to 24(I lose unless I crit or FP thunder) or far, far more likely (I think it's 13+/16), to over 102 HP. If i am exactly 101 then I think I probably still win if I just press thunder because if he softs I can just thunder spam until I can Sub and I don't think Toxic koes me before I ko everything else (I think I only need 3 turns since I OHKO everything else (including D-D).
+5 80+ SpA Mewtwo Thunder vs. 4 HP / 252+ SpD Blissey: 297-350 (45.5 - 53.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Turn 63 I am pretty sure I just 2hko right here most of the time (maybe all of the time), but I also have the option to Sub.

Did I miss something here?

Even the words "immediate crit on Latias on turn 39" sort of refute themselves, being turn 39 and all. I don't think it is disingenuous to suggest that offense should crit more than stall. It is mathematically more likely to happen, and if it does not then the luck is not neutral. Most (substantially all?) of his moves used at that point could not crit. Most of the moves I used could crit or para or something (bearing in mind Jirachi serene grace). It wasn't like a complete shit show, I just found it frustrating that it only took him a few tries after I fished for a lot longer.
Oh, thanks! You are right that I did overlook this line of play. To be fair, there's a lot of important details that are invisible here to spectators so I just instinctively avoided considering it, I clearly should have. Luckily, this one is actually pretty easy to analyze in this specific case since you've shared your Mewtwo hp evs.

405 Mewtwo recovers 25 hp per turn from Leftovers. You get two turns of Leftovers recovery by doing CM into Ice Beam. Therefore, Latias Dragon Claw needs to do less than 50 damage for Mewtwo to have more hp than it did at the start of turn 61 (where Blissey KO'd with Seismic). The possible Latias damage rolls vs +5 Mewtwo are as follows:
(45, 46, 46, 47, 48, 48, 49, 49, 50, 50, 51, 51, 52, 52, 53, 54)

8 out of 16 rolls are less than 50 damage so, assuming the best circumstances possible, you had exactly 50% chance to survive Seismic Toss after Latias drops in this hypothetical.

This brings up a really interesting question. Do you prefer to go with option 2 where you have to guess between two possible choices or go with option 3 where you are relying on a 50% damage roll? Personally, I would rather attempt option 2 because I have more agency over the outcome. Even if, mathematically, the two are the same; the result of a choice that I make is more satisfying to me than whatever the dice may decide.

Assuming consistency between ps calc and ps sim, 405 Mewtwo at 24% can be 96-99 hp. Healing to 101 puts you outside of Seismic Toss kill range but 64 could still click Toxic (because 25% displayed may or may not mean you can Substitute), in which case you lose to Salamence Protect stall afterwards. Therefore, you would actually want to have 102 hp so that you can click Substitute vs Blissey and guarantee the win. So...

If 99 hp: You need Dragon Claw to do less than 48 damage. There are 4 possible rolls so 25% odds to win.
If 98: <47, 18.75% win
If 97: <46, 6.25% win
If 96: <45, 0% win

So I guess, technically, the option with the best win % in the hypothetical that Latias never crits, was to CM to +4 and then Ice Beam. That's not as interesting, though, so let's pretend that it wasn't the case.
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These claims, specifically, are where I mean that you were being disingenuous. As a question of fact, you did actually get a crit as well as a few para procs. I do understand that I'm taking hyperbole at face value. However, I think this sort of hyperbole within the context of venting, lends itself to misinterpretations that can only ever be negative or mean-spirited towards the players involved. I don't take issue with the idea that offense should crit more than stall and I understand your frustrations in that regard.

I'm kinda derailing this thread, at this point, so I won't post more about this. Sorry to all the win posters ;-;
 

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I'm kinda derailing this thread, at this point, so I won't post more about this. Sorry to all the win posters ;-;

Going to use this post to state that anyone who is interested even slightly in ADV ubers has a great opportunity to learn the tier by following along with the replays and reading these match breakdowns/analyses. The ADV Ubers resource base is a bit more overlooked when compared to other tiers(the fact that Groudon/Kyogre have absolutely zero mention of Thunder Wave in the recommended sets is a crime, relegating that move to Other Options is not indicative of how the meta plays, or has played, for at least a year - my kingdom to anyone who approves an overhaul to at least the two kaiju analyses).

I also don't want to derail from the winposting of everyone else playing(congrats btw), but I wanted to add something to this:

Oh, thanks! You are right that I did overlook this line of play. To be fair, there's a lot of important details that are invisible here to spectators so I just instinctively avoided considering it, I clearly should have

I think all else held equal(one such factor being your time/willingness to keep writing these), it is better to include as many relevant details as possible because at worst, a player can glide over the information that is obvious/apparent to them; however, for people that don't see these details and would like to learn further, these extra points may show a spectator something new about the tier they didn't otherwise know(especially important imo given that ADV Ubers is not necessarily often discussed outside of small circles). At least from my perspective, the purpose of a forum is to have a bunch of data points and information to sift through, searching for what is useful to me amongst a sea of information(I'm showing my age here since I loved doing this with GameFaqs). If someone is not interested in it, they don't have to read it but for those that do more information to connect the dots is more effective, especially since they can come back to read/quote/dissect a forum post at any given time.

I am also inherently biased as I love reading these; I think they serve as a really great introduction to what this great(and sometimes silly) tier has to offer and a great way to expand on it for people who know it but don't necessarily have the in-depth experience to appreciate everything going on, so just wanted to show my support for what you're doing.
 
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Oh, thanks! You are right that I did overlook this line of play. To be fair, there's a lot of important details that are invisible here to spectators so I just instinctively avoided considering it, I clearly should have. Luckily, this one is actually pretty easy to analyze in this specific case since you've shared your Mewtwo hp evs.

405 Mewtwo recovers 25 hp per turn from Leftovers. You get two turns of Leftovers recovery by doing CM into Ice Beam. Therefore, Latias Dragon Claw needs to do less than 50 damage for Mewtwo to have more hp than it did at the start of turn 61 (where Blissey KO'd with Seismic). The possible Latias damage rolls vs +5 Mewtwo are as follows:
(45, 46, 46, 47, 48, 48, 49, 49, 50, 50, 51, 51, 52, 52, 53, 54)

8 out of 16 rolls are less than 50 damage so, assuming the best circumstances possible, you had exactly 50% chance to survive Seismic Toss after Latias drops in this hypothetical.

This brings up a really interesting question. Do you prefer to go with option 2 where you have to guess between two possible choices or go with option 3 where you are relying on a 50% damage roll? Personally, I would rather attempt option 2 because I have more agency over the outcome. Even if, mathematically, the two are the same; the result of a choice that I make is more satisfying to me than whatever the dice may decide.

Assuming consistency between ps calc and ps sim, 405 Mewtwo at 24% can be 96-99 hp. Healing to 101 puts you outside of Seismic Toss kill range but 64 could still click Toxic (because 25% displayed may or may not mean you can Substitute), in which case you lose to Salamence Protect stall afterwards. Therefore, you would actually want to have 102 hp so that you can click Substitute vs Blissey and guarantee the win. So...

If 99 hp: You need Dragon Claw to do less than 48 damage. There are 4 possible rolls so 25% odds to win.
If 98: <47, 18.75% win
If 97: <46, 6.25% win
If 96: <45, 0% win

So I guess, technically, the option with the best win % in the hypothetical that Latias never crits, was to CM to +4 and then Ice Beam. That's not as interesting, though, so let's pretend that it wasn't the case.
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These claims, specifically, are where I mean that you were being disingenuous. As a question of fact, you did actually get a crit as well as a few para procs. I do understand that I'm taking hyperbole at face value. However, I think this sort of hyperbole within the context of venting, lends itself to misinterpretations that can only ever be negative or mean-spirited towards the players involved. I don't take issue with the idea that offense should crit more than stall and I understand your frustrations in that regard.

I'm kinda derailing this thread, at this point, so I won't post more about this. Sorry to all the win posters ;-;

I'm sure we can verify this somehow but I am pretty sure this is still wrong and that 24% shows 97-101 which changes your analysis. I had always thought (and I was pretty sure I had 100-101 HP in the game) and maybe this was just me being paranoid that my attacks weren't going to KO when I face the opponent, that PS shows spectators/opponents the rounded down percentage (which is why people sometimes don't die from sandstorm at 6% because they could technically have 6.26-6.99% hp).

You are right about salamence, I didn't consider that toxic would actually win if I didn't get a sub up. I think he would get 5? turns which is more than enough for toxic to tick m2 down at 101 hp.

I know I bitch about hax and that makes me a baby and I know I didn't get "nothing" all game but when you are frustrated, people say stuff like that. On the other side, trying to pretend it didn't happen is worse. I had been spamming attacks for most of the game. Instead of saying I didn't get any, maybe I should have said and gosh darn it I got a disproportionately less amount of critical hits and procs than I should have given the number of attacks I used that could crit vs the amount of attacks he used that could crit but the dramatic effect isn't the same so fuck that. Hax are part of the game, bitching about them is also part of the game. I don't think more than a handful of users take it personally when you bitch about them especially in adv ubers, except for those who are delulu about the impact they have and have a huge poke-ego. You can always just put in your team chat that the hax didn't matter but I feel you get nothing out of antagonizing someone who just lost to a crit. Maybe that's just me.
 
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