Tournament ZUCL I - Semifinals

[Murphy Lawden]

Amazing Art by skrimps.
Hosted by AC7, Eledyr, and Murphy Lawden.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Semifinals | Finals
Administrative Decisions | Replays and Usages | Record Sheet

Rules​

• Follow all rules listed here.
• Schedule via Smogon VMs. It's easier for me to make decisions for activity calls when I can actually see what went down with scheduling.
• If you are unable to schedule with your opponent, please let your managers know ASAP so they can communicate that to me or the other team's managers for a potential substitute.
• Substitutions may be made after a week has started. When making a substitution, please tag myself, the managers of the opposing team, and all of the players affected by the substitute to ensure that everyone is made aware. Players who have already played in the week or were subbed out in the same week cannot be subbed back in.
• If a match remains incomplete by the time of the deadline, it will be subject to an activity call.
• Replays are mandatory. Not only are they useful for confirming wins, they contribute to usage stats and allow the people who couldn't watch the games live to watch them later.
• Managers: Please send me your lineups in the same format that I used to post pairings. It makes it much easier to post future rounds more quickly.

Shady Spiritombs (0) vs (0) Lana Del Catty
SV ZU: Baddy vs diegoyuhhi
SV ZU: LpZ vs Scarf Kricketune
SS ZU: Pokeslice vs TheFranklin
SM ZU: Toto vs btboy
SM ZU: BigFatMantis vs Terracotta
ORAS ZU: DD Joe vs LustfulLice
DPP ZU: plznostep vs 5MGMatthew5
ADV ZU: Baoba vs Hachimaki

Rocky Helmet Rampardos (0) vs (0) Loathsome Lumineons
SV ZU: Django vs Trichotomy
SV ZU: Esteb4n vs sky
SM ZU: 5gen vs HAVOCKNIGHT
ORAS ZU: 5Dots vs Ruffles
BW ZU: Tack vs skrimps
DPP ZU: big tony 2014 vs Jojen
GSC ZU: SBPC vs THE_CHUNGLER
RBY ZU: hammer798 vs acluh1


Deadline for Semifinals is <t:1774238340:F>, GLHF!

Tier Picks

Shady Spiritombs vs Lana Del Catty
Spiritomb's picks: SM, DPP, ADV
Delcatty's picks: SM, SS. ORAS

Rocky Helmet Rampardos vs Loathsome Lumineons
Rampardos's picks: SM. BW, RBY
Lumineon's picks: ORAS, DPP, GSC

Predictions Format

Shady Spiritombs (0) vs (0) Lana Del Catty
SV ZU: Baddy vs diegoyuhhi
SV ZU: LpZ vs Scarf Kricketune
SS ZU: Pokeslice vs TheFranklin
SM ZU: Toto vs btboy
SM ZU: BigFatMantis vs Terracotta
ORAS ZU: DD Joe vs LustfulLice
DPP ZU: plznostep vs 5MGMatthew5
ADV ZU: Baoba vs Hachimaki

Rocky Helmet Rampardos (0) vs (0) Loathsome Lumineons
SV ZU: Django vs Trichotomy
SV ZU: Esteb4n vs sky
SM ZU: 5gen vs HAVOCKNIGHT
ORAS ZU: 5Dots vs Ruffles
BW ZU: Tack vs skrimps
DPP ZU: big tony 2014 vs Jojen
GSC ZU: SBPC vs THE_CHUNGLER
RBY ZU: hammer798 vs acluh1

 

[zause]

Rocky Helmet Rampardos (8) vs (0) Loathsome Lumineons
SV ZU: Django vs Trichotomy
SV ZU: Esteb4n vs sky
SM ZU: 5gen vs HAVOCKNIGHT
ORAS ZU: 5Dots vs Ruffles
BW ZU: Tack vs skrimps
DPP ZU: big tony 2014 vs Jojen
GSC ZU: SBPC vs THE_CHUNGLER
RBY ZU: hammer798 vs acluh1

WE DIDNT SACRIFICE OURSELVES FOR NOTHING
YOU ARE BASTIO DON JULIO, YOU CARRY THE FLAME

 

[Me Empty]

Shady Spiritombs (8) vs (0) Lana Del Catty
SV ZU: Baddy vs diegoyuhhi
SV ZU: LpZ vs Scarf Kricketune
SS ZU: Pokeslice vs TheFranklin
SM ZU: Toto vs btboy
SM ZU: BigFatMantis vs Terracotta
ORAS ZU: DD Joe vs LustfulLice
DPP ZU: plznostep vs 5MGMatthew5
ADV ZU: Baoba vs Hachimaki

Need I say more DBD is managing

 

[BaitWiz]

yo im back for predicts i guess

Shady Spiritombs (3) vs (2) Lana Del Catty
SV ZU: Baddy vs diegoyuhhi - i generally rate baddy stronger, dude's a killer, diego can always get there with solid prep and play though
SV ZU: LpZ vs Scarf Kricketune - this is a weird one, LpZ's had an off tour and this is SK's first tournament in a while
SS ZU: Pokeslice vs TheFranklin - one of the best matchups of the week
SM ZU: Toto vs btboy - toto will get his revenge, also one of the best matchups of the week
SM ZU: BigFatMantis vs Terracotta - terracotta's prep is fucking nuts and he clicks well too
ORAS ZU: DD Joe vs LustfulLice - just gonna give it to dd joe since he's been playing the tier all season but i really don't know lol
DPP ZU: plznostep vs 5MGMatthew5 - matthew's first big win
ADV ZU: Baoba vs Hachimaki - all i know is that this is a hype matchup for the adv lovers and they're both on killer runs

Rocky Helmet Rampardos (3) vs (3) Loathsome Lumineons
SV ZU: Django vs Trichotomy - not really sure but django's taken more names this tour so im giving the edge to him
SV ZU: Esteb4n vs sky - i always trust esteban to do well when it matters most
SM ZU: 5gen vs HAVOCKNIGHT - genuine banger of a matchup, think it'll come down to if 5gen can outprep HK or catch him off guard with something
ORAS ZU: 5Dots vs Ruffles - ruffles has had a pretty mid regular season but im sure HK and ruffles will be stepping up prep for playoffs
BW ZU: Tack vs skrimps - the skrimptech is devious and while tack is typically a fine player, i never really trust their prep
DPP ZU: big tony 2014 vs Jojen - the biggest (tony's doing well as usual and jojen is 0-3)
GSC ZU: SBPC vs THE_CHUNGLER - i dont find gsc to be particularly hype but this matchup is pretty cool, giving the edge to the guy whose play i trust more
RBY ZU: hammer798 vs acluh1 - ive seen some very strange things happen in this gen and i dont know the players well so im not gonna try to call it

 

[diegoyuhhi]

Rocky Helmet Rampardos (4) vs (4) Loathsome Lumineons
SV ZU: Django vs Trichotomy - similar pilot strength, but i’ve been liking rampardos sv teams more
SV ZU: Esteb4n vs sky - same as above
SM ZU: 5gen vs HAVOCKNIGHT - i trust havoc’s in game more, even tho 5gen could very well outprep
ORAS ZU: 5Dots vs Ruffles - alr lumis y’all slacked enough, time to lock in in oras. 5dots is still 5dots tho.
BW ZU: Tack vs skrimps - hl match for me, i think skrimps is him but tack is a tough opp
DPP ZU: big tony 2014 vs Jojen - i’d trust tony with my life and he’s locked IN
GSC ZU: SBPC vs THE_CHUNGLER - chung in gsc is inevitable
RBY ZU: hammer798 vs acluh1 - flipped a coin. i think hammer is more experienced too

multiple 50-50 matchups, really cool pairings, could very well go either way

 

[DD Joe]

Rocky Helmet Rampardos (8) vs (0) Loathsome Lumineons
SV ZU: Django vs Trichotomy
SV ZU: Esteb4n vs sky
SM ZU: 5gen vs HAVOCKNIGHT
ORAS ZU: 5Dots vs Ruffles
BW ZU: Tack vs skrimps
DPP ZU: big tony 2014 vs Jojen
GSC ZU: SBPC vs THE_CHUNGLER
RBY ZU: hammer798 vs acluh1

WE DIDNT SACRIFICE OURSELVES FOR NOTHING
YOU ARE BASTIO DON JULIO, YOU CARRY THE FLAME

I think bro totally belongs in teamtours guys

 

[THE_CHUNGLER]

Shady Spiritombs (0) vs (0) Lana Del Catty
SV ZU: Baddy vs diegoyuhhi come on Diego you can do it buddy. You could’ve told me he was 6-1 or 1-6 and I would believe you. I checked the sheet and he’s beaten a couple great players, so I think this is the tour where he goes circuit mode
SV ZU: LpZ vs Scarf Kricketune better player if he has a good team and baddy will figure something out I’m sure
SS ZU: Pokeslice vs TheFranklin should be a pretty fun game, though thefranklin is the best overall player in the pool. He might even be the best overall player in the tournament besides rby-THE-GOD.
SM ZU: Toto vs btboy unmarried vs extremely divorced
SM ZU: BigFatMantis vs Terracotta Battle of the crackheads in the best way possible. I’ve never seen bfm play sm before but he is slightly better as a player. Terracotta has been struggling iirc so playing bfm crack might tilt him
ORAS ZU: DD Joe vs LustfulLice both are my friends, will probably depend on the matchup. LustfulLice has more playoff game experience.
DPP ZU: plznostep vs 5MGMatthew5 step has been very good in DPP, I feel they’re always good at the metagames they’re interested in at the moment and they surely keep up the interest until the tour is over.
ADV ZU: Baoba vs Hachimaki very close, definitely the best 2 advers right now but i rate hachimaki very high in game. HL for the tour

 

[Mirbro]

Shady Spiritombs (0) vs (0) Lana Del Catty
SV ZU: Baddy vs diegoyuhhi HL! I think Lana del Catty are going crazy on winning this.
SV ZU: LpZ vs Scarf Kricketune
SS ZU: Pokeslice vs TheFranklin
SM ZU: Toto vs btboy HL! Btboy gonna tryhard. Or not. But it is their time.
SM ZU: BigFatMantis vs Terracotta
ORAS ZU: DD Joe vs LustfulLice
DPP ZU: plznostep vs 5MGMatthew5 The current DPP Goat
ADV ZU: Baoba vs Hachimaki

Rocky Helmet Rampardos (0) vs (0) Loathsome Lumineons
SV ZU: Django vs Trichotomy
SV ZU: Esteb4n vs sky
SM ZU: 5gen vs HAVOCKNIGHT HL! But 5gen is gonna bring it home, his home.
ORAS ZU: 5Dots vs Ruffles I said I wouldnt bold against them... but 5dots is 5dots, so let's see. Close MU.
BW ZU: Tack vs skrimps Big fan
DPP ZU: big tony 2014 vs Jojen
GSC ZU: SBPC vs THE_CHUNGLER
RBY ZU: hammer798 vs acluh1

 

[kriegueur]

been waiting for these ?

Rocky Helmet Rampardos (0) vs (0) Loathsome Lumineons
SV ZU: Django vs Trichotomy (has been winning)
SV ZU: Esteb4n vs sky (hi toto how are you doing)
SM ZU: 5gen vs HAVOCKNIGHT (highlight)
ORAS ZU: 5Dots vs Ruffles (Ruffles hasn't had the greates luck this tour so this is not the guy he wants to be facing)
BW ZU: Tack vs skrimps (better results I think)
DPP ZU: big tony 2014 vs Jojen (has the soul badge)
GSC ZU: SBPC vs THE_CHUNGLER (yeah)
RBY ZU: hammer798 vs acluh1 (I'm like 70% sur this one is the rby player)

retrospective time !

14/24

14/24

14/24

12/24

18/24

10/24

14/24

this puts my avergare around 13.71 so barely better than a coin, at least I got to 14 last week despite predicting 1-5 correctly in SV (ty shadow)
now for the tier breakdown

24/42

8/15

9/15

10/18

10/14

8/13

13/17

11/13

4/16

as we can see in the end gen 4 and over have all averaged out to get very close to my global average, while the weirdly consistent ADV and GSC compensate for horrendous RBY

like and subscribe if you want to see an analysis on prediction variance per tier (maximum larp)

 

[Tizio]

Shady Spiritombs (3) vs (5) Lana Del Catty
SV ZU: Baddy vs diegoyuhhi | Diego is still traumatized from their last match
SV ZU: LpZ vs Scarf Kricketune | im prob the only one bolding him but i want to believe
SS ZU: Pokeslice vs TheFranklin | Franklin is just better
SM ZU: Toto vs btboy | Toto is Washed
SM ZU: BigFatMantis vs Terracotta | It took Cattys 7 weeks to slot Terra in his main gen
ORAS ZU: DD Joe vs LustfulLice | DD Joe is bad but sometimes he forgets about that
DPP ZU: plznostep vs 5MGMatthew5 | Matt wont end this ZUCL winless
ADV ZU: Baoba vs Hachimaki | Goats MU, since their last match went in Hachi's favour this time i bold Boba

Rocky Helmet Rampardos (4) vs (4) Loathsome Lumineons
SV ZU: Django vs Trichotomy | Close one but Trich has been doing good lately
SV ZU: Esteb4n vs sky | Clutch player
SM ZU: 5gen vs HAVOCKNIGHT | Highlight match, i'm bolding 5gen but could end both ways tbh
ORAS ZU: 5Dots vs Ruffles | You never go wrong by betting on Ruffles in oras zu
BW ZU: Tack vs skrimps | Idt Tack has been at its best this tour
DPP ZU: big tony 2014 vs Jojen | This dude has managed to beat Koga himself, i don't see how he could lose now
GSC ZU: SBPC vs THE_CHUNGLER | I know shit bout GSC but i think Chung is mentally ill enough to play it well
RBY ZU: hammer798 vs acluh1 | I flipped a coin to decide who wins, but that's also how rby matches go so its fine ig

 

[PHB11677]

Shady Spiritombs (8) vs (0) Lana Del Catty
SV ZU: Baddy vs diegoyuhhi
SV ZU: LpZ vs Scarf Kricketune
SS ZU: Pokeslice vs TheFranklin
SM ZU: Toto vs btboy
SM ZU: BigFatMantis vs Terracotta
ORAS ZU: DD Joe vs LustfulLice
DPP ZU: plznostep vs 5MGMatthew5
ADV ZU: Baoba vs Hachimaki

Rocky Helmet Rampardos (4) vs (4) Loathsome Lumineons
SV ZU: Django vs Trichotomy
SV ZU: Esteb4n vs sky
SM ZU: 5gen vs HAVOCKNIGHT
ORAS ZU: 5Dots vs Ruffles
BW ZU: Tack vs skrimps
DPP ZU: big tony 2014 vs Jojen
GSC ZU: SBPC vs THE_CHUNGLER
RBY ZU: hammer798 vs acluh1​

 

[Me Empty]

View attachment 816731

Shady Spiritombs (8) vs (0) Lana Del Catty
SV ZU: Baddy vs diegoyuhhi
SV ZU: LpZ vs Scarf Kricketune
SS ZU: Pokeslice vs TheFranklin
SM ZU: Toto vs btboy
SM ZU: BigFatMantis vs Terracotta
ORAS ZU: DD Joe vs LustfulLice
DPP ZU: plznostep vs 5MGMatthew5
ADV ZU: Baoba vs Hachimaki

Rocky Helmet Rampardos (4) vs (4) Loathsome Lumineons
SV ZU: Django vs Trichotomy
SV ZU: Esteb4n vs sky
SM ZU: 5gen vs HAVOCKNIGHT
ORAS ZU: 5Dots vs Ruffles
BW ZU: Tack vs skrimps
DPP ZU: big tony 2014 vs Jojen
GSC ZU: SBPC vs THE_CHUNGLER
RBY ZU: hammer798 vs acluh1​

most unbias predict

 

[lettuce]

Got 5/8 right last week in Weez v Tombs, 6/8 in BBC V Audinos, and I got 4/5 of the ones you do count right in rampardos v dons. Shooting for 100% so I can say I've done it.

Rocky Helmet Rampardos (3) vs (5) Loathsome Lumineons
SV ZU: Django vs Trichotomy (looked at the sheet and the SV pool is really top-heavy, and these two are close to that top. They're about even too. One of Django's losses is to Trichotomy, who I am also vibe bolding.)
SV ZU: Esteb4n vs sky (sky's 1-1 on the sheet doesn't really tell you much, since the L is to 6-0 shadow and the W is 0-4 danbear. Have to go with Esteb4n here, who has been playing the tour more. Rampardos have the 2nd best SV, which also leans Esteb4n)
SM ZU: 5gen vs HAVOCKNIGHT (im starting to think that nobody broke even this tour based on the sheet. I also saved this one for last since 5gen and HAVOC are both players I will not value right when predicting. I feel like im more likely to be wrong bolding against Havoc, and since I saved this for last I can also bold to predict a lumis win)
ORAS ZU: 5Dots vs Ruffles (i said nobody broke even but Ruffles kinda broke even. However, the sheet has not convinced me to stop unapologetically bolding Ruffles)
BW ZU: Tack vs skrimps (Rampardos are 4-4 in BW, but Lumis are 4-1. I am also an unapologetic skrimps bolder)
DPP ZU: big tony 2014 vs Jojen (DPP tony good)
GSC ZU: SBPC vs THE_CHUNGLER (Chung good)
RBY ZU: hammer798 vs acluh1 (hammer has been doing pretty good)

Feel like I've gone positive in predicts most weeks, and I'm not sure if its due to every pool being top-heavy and the nature of everyone flexing what they're good at and winning or because im goated and good at this. But on further review, it's definitely the second one – never doubt yourself. I haven't been counting by tier but i got 100/163 right, which is 61.3%! Yay! If you don't remove subs/the ruffles game i predicted after it played/those 3 dons games, its 103/168 or also 61.3%.