NOC Fire and Ice Mafia: Fire and Ice tie, the village loses.

[billymills]

RIP Yeti the vanilla townie
RIP Unclesam the vanilla townie
Deadline is October 12th 2015 at 4:53 EST

 

[realiti]

Right now, I'm thinking acid, celever, and rssp1 are mafia. Pokeguy, jumpluff, and myself are town. I'm extremely confident acidphoenix killed Yeti, simply because no one else would. My guess is that he thought Yeti would start a case on him, and wanted to eliminate that possibility. He is probably on the mafia team of two, however. His partner could have allowed him to pick the target, thus making it seem like nothing to do with the partner (I'm assuming Celever). Note that the night dragged on forever, might be because acid and his partner was arguing (also a habit of celevers. I also don't think acid is stupid. He would know that if he were on the team with one, he had to kill a mafian to win. I have seen him lurking. He most likely read UncleSam's post about nightkills. Therefore I think he is on the team of two.

I think rssp1 killed UncleSam and is on the team of one. He was generally read as somewhat town and I think he feels that it wasnt needed to kill a mafian because he could be lynched tmrw and rssp could the last one tmrw. He also had connections with DLE outlined by yeti and only strengthens the case. There was also no reason to kill jumpluff or Yeti, making UncleSam the only option.

Celever is the wild card. I think he's probably paired with acid. He is the person who would most likely let acid lead. I'm more confident in him thanrssp1 being acid's partner, though Celever can be the lone mafian. As stated before I think him and acid are the reason this night dragged so long. I don't have much to say about him regarding the nightkills. I would think he would kill jumpluff but I guess I was wrong..

jumpluff is 100% clean, I am clean, and Pokeguy is most likely doctor. I also believe Pokeguy iis doc because of the midnight substitution as well having no other option. I assume Pokeguy skimmed most of jumpluff's posts and from what he saw he was thinking jumpluff's thoughts were generally protown, especially with DLE's flip so he protected her as she was most likely to be targetted for similar reasons of pokeguy thought she was town (that was a mouthful).

interested in what others think about the yeti kill

 

[Celever]

Huh? I thought US made it pretty clear that the mafia should target other mafia. I don't really get these kills at all, especially since the doc is still alive. I guess they must have targeted jumpluff as opposed to the other two generally-perceived-as townies. That's unlucky...

I have no clue what the hell UTO is talking about, though. The Yeti kill and the US make just as much sense as each other, the levels of both being OK but really suboptimal.

I'm going to go ahead and plant my vote on Lynch rssp1. I do think UTO got one thing right and I think that rssp1 is probably on the solo team. There were definite ties between rssp1 and DLE. He could also quite easily be on the team of two, but today we should try to focus on the solo player in order to lessen the night kill count by one, buying us more time.

Who did Pokeguy sub in for? I forgot. I thought it was for acid, but apparently not going by UTO's post.

 

[realiti]

Huh? I thought US made it pretty clear that the mafia should target other mafia. I don't really get these kills at all, especially since the doc is still alive. I guess they must have targeted jumpluff as opposed to the other two generally-perceived-as townies. That's unlucky...

I have no clue what the hell UTO is talking about, though. The Yeti kill and the US make just as much sense as each other, the levels of both being OK but really suboptimal.

I'm going to go ahead and plant my vote on Lynch rssp1. I do think UTO got one thing right and I think that rssp1 is probably on the solo team. There were definite ties between rssp1 and DLE. He could also quite easily be on the team of two, but today we should try to focus on the solo player in order to lessen the night kill count by one, buying us more time.

Who did Pokeguy sub in for? I forgot. I thought it was for acid, but apparently not going by UTO's post.

Pokeguy still has the same role as his day 1 (same person)

I fail to see how the acid kill and the sam kill are on the same levels. Sam was much more vocal than yeti and gave many more possible lynch targets as well as the benefit of doubt. Yeti only accused acid and was only part of the later parts of the lynch. The fact that you say they are the same level still makes me think yoy are acid's partner deflecting attention away from him.

 

[realiti]

Also, I shouldn't need to point out what is wrong with the last part of celever's post (if we lynch rssp1 it would be 3-2, nk will be 2-2, we lose). I'll be on later to respond in more depth if needed

 

[Celever]

Pokeguy still has the same role as his day 1 (same person)

I fail to see how the acid kill and the sam kill are on the same levels. Sam was much more vocal than yeti and gave many more possible lynch targets as well as the benefit of doubt. Yeti only accused acid and was only part of the later parts of the lynch. The fact that you say they are the same level still makes me think yoy are acid's partner deflecting attention away from him.

Not at all. They were both generally perceived as town with steadfast opinions and they both vocalised them well. If the mafia really wanted to kill the experienced townies, those two are as good as each other.

Also I didn't realise it would work out like that. I was trying to think of numbers in my head but given the lack of a player list it's a lot more difficult. So, let me get this straight, this is a playerlist:
Celever
jumpluff
UTO
Pokeguy
rssp1
acid

With 6 players the numbers are 3-2-1. If we lynch one of the two it goes to 3-1-1. That would make the most sense because it means that there's a chance for cross fire maybe. If not, though, and both of the mafia hit town again, it goes to 1-1-1, which would be pretty weird. If the townie is lynched whichever mafia has a higher priority kill would win, and if a mafia is lynched the other one wins. Though either way is better than lynching the 1 and having it go 3-2 at night. The only way we wouldn't autolose is a doc save.

Personally I think that while it's somewhat likely rssp1 is on his own it's entirely possible that he's also part of a team. I think that the likeliest player to be part of a team would have to be UTO if he is mafia, but he's not as likely to be mafia as acid or rssp1 are (though the only alternative is Pokeguy who I think subbed back into his old role, unless jumpluff completely duped us all, in which case kudos to her for that). I'll see what others are thinking, though.

 

[realiti]

Not at all. They were both generally perceived as town with steadfast opinions and they both vocalised them well. If the mafia really wanted to kill the experienced townies, those two are as good as each other.

Also I didn't realise it would work out like that. I was trying to think of numbers in my head but given the lack of a player list it's a lot more difficult. So, let me get this straight, this is a playerlist:
Celever
jumpluff
UTO
Pokeguy
rssp1
acid

With 6 players the numbers are 3-2-1. If we lynch one of the two it goes to 3-1-1. That would make the most sense because it means that there's a chance for cross fire maybe. If not, though, and both of the mafia hit town again, it goes to 1-1-1, which would be pretty weird. If the townie is lynched whichever mafia has a higher priority kill would win, and if a mafia is lynched the other one wins. Though either way is better than lynching the 1 and having it go 3-2 at night. The only way we wouldn't autolose is a doc save.

Personally I think that while it's somewhat likely rssp1 is on his own it's entirely possible that he's also part of a team. I think that the likeliest player to be part of a team would have to be UTO if he is mafia, but he's not as likely to be mafia as acid or rssp1 are (though the only alternative is Pokeguy who I think subbed back into his old role, unless jumpluff completely duped us all, in which case kudos to her for that). I'll see what others are thinking, though.

Yes, they both vocalised their thoughts well, but UnceSam suspected a plethora of people as potential mafia. The only information we got from Yeti during the lynch was she wanted to lynch DLE and acid, a much smaller list. The only person who was both alive and on Yeti's list was acidphoenix. He was the only person who really would benefit from Yeti's death at the current moment (though now that I think about it rssp1 could have killed yeti as well, but I'm fairly confident acid killed her and he hasnt been called out by yeti for about a week)

 

[jumpluff]

Ice Mafia, you lose. You should've killed a Fire Mafia. Whoever is the remaining Ice Mafia has only one way to win now, and that's hope we lynch Fire Mafia. And I'm pretty sure I know who that Ice Mafia is, and I assure you I will lynch you and ensure you lose unless you claim soon.

 

[jumpluff]

Obviously, I'd like to lynch Fire Mafia. That's the optimal town choice right now. But I'm also happy to ensure the Ice Mafia lose, especially if they refuse to cooperate again, and drag you down with us, because we can't win on our own. I'm not going to let you take a risk -- I'm going to straight up start a lynch on you, Ice Mafia, if you do not publicly claim who you are and confirm to me which kills (all of them) your team was responsible for. And the rest of the town should stand with me here, UncleSam predicted this outcome as well.

 

[jumpluff]

P.S. While I'm still at it, the Fire Mafia have two people left. Neither of whom want to be lynched today, because their surest route to success is maintaining two players into the night. If I'm wrong somehow and my lynch target is Fire Mafia, they have every incentive in the world to claim as well so that I hit the remaining Ice Mafia and remove that nightkill. So think on that as well, Fire Mafians.

 

[jumpluff]

Also, nobody add votes to clear mafia Celever's ridiculously hasty (to be kind) vote, reminder that we do not hold majority today

 

[acidphoenix]

Fine. I'm Ice, we killed Spiffy and US.

 

[rssp1]

lol there goes your thoughts of me being with DLE

 

[rssp1]

So I think everyone already knows I think jumpluff and Celever are the two remaining townies, meaning I think UTO and Pokeguy are the fire mafia.

 

[realiti]

rssp1, why would I kill Yeti?

 

[realiti]

Also I'm pretty sure the fire mafia are pokeguy and celever now

 

[rssp1]

Dude i have no idea why people went for UncleSam and Yeti that literally makes no sense

 

[rssp1]

What if the scums killed them solely because it was an idiotic kill to make????
and then they pointed out how idiotic it was, thus giving them towncred???

 

[acidphoenix]

I killed US because I thought + was hoping he was Fire Maf, we'd then have a Celever lynch the next day, and that that would put me in a much better situation no matter whether I was right about Celever being the other mafia or not.

 

[rssp1]

What led you to think that US was the fire maf, acid?

 

[acidphoenix]

I stand by every non-DLE read I made before claiming. Read back.

 

[rssp1]

Alright, i'll do that.

 

[jumpluff]

rssp1 and Celever must be the Fire Mafia. The partnertells are way too striking (I'll go dig them out later), and I already believed acidphoenix was DLE's partner and so believe he is indeed Ice Mafia, unless anyone else would like to counterclaim that (along with kills and reasoning for kills) for the diplomatic immunity. Opinions on which we should lynch?

 

[jumpluff]

p.s. I transparently lied to cover for the possibility acid isn't Ice Mafia, we clearly need to lynch Fire Mafia. Right now we are in kingmaker though and I want the village to know that we always have the power to decide which mafia we hate most and want to see lose along with us (kingmaker). ^_^ If anyone is uncooperative, punish them! However, the only play-to-win for us here is to lynch off a Fire Mafia (because otherwise they win tonight, so we lose) and make sure the Ice Mafia and Fire Mafia know who each other are, because the only way we can win by lynching the Ice Mafia is through a chancey scenario that is also possible in the case we lynch the Fire Mafia.

Numbers:

3-2-1

Lynch on Ice Mafia -> 3-2

Night-kill: 2-2 (likeliest, we lose and are in kingmaker) or 3-2 -> 3-1 (in which case we probably win, but relies on a 1/3ish doctor chance to even happen)

Lynch on Fire Mafia -> 3-1-1

Night-kill: 2-1, 1-1-1, 3-1-1, 3-1 are all possible scenarios for the day. 2-1 we win assuming we have the correct mafia identified, 1-1-1 we are kingmaker and whoever lives gets to pick the winner, 3-1 and 3-1-1 we should also win although NL may be optimal depending on who survives, 0-1-1 is a draw between the mafias or up to the priorities LOL so a total gamble for the mafia. The mafia are now locked in a game of chicken whether they should kill each other. This still better for Ice Mafia than autolosing due to lynch, tho, and us with them.

The Ice Mafia acidphoenix needs to be entirely honest with us to ensure we lynch Fire Mafia, as he cannot possibly win without aiding us here. I believe he has been, although that UncleSam kill was absurd if you truly believed he was Fire Mafia (you should've killed off my reads or Yeti's, Celever was the clearest kill there if you are truly Ice Mafia).

Correct me if any of my numbers are wrong.

Reminder of the win conditions

You win when the other mafia team is eliminated and you control 50% of the town or nothing can prevent this from occurring.

Therefore we must lynch Fire Mafia, because otherwise they have 50% town control guaranteed and the other mafia team eliminated. And the mafias must both seek to eliminate each other tomorrow night, going for a kill on village is tantamount to surrender (and also risks the kill being blocked).

 

[jumpluff]

Uh, 2-2 we aren't in kingmaker, we just straight up lose, sorry.