NOC OC NOC GAME OVER - Now Despair

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LightWolf RE: 166 I sorted the results into lists, but all three players listed in the Low column are overlapping with the Trollish column, since they all did the same "it's all luck" blurb. In the end, what I got out of it was two town lean reads, coming from the players in the Honest(?) column who ended up there for explaining the reasoning behind their percentages.
 

Texas Cloverleaf

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Aubisio is a good fall back lynch since he's all but confirmed he doesn't want to contribute in any way but I'd rather save it for if there's no clear scum that have been hunted by eod
 

LightWolf

lightwoof
is a Forum Moderator Alumnus
Okay so conclusion time.

Based on day 1 I am certain to stick to my suspicions on haruno and moody since neither rereading nor their refusal to address my qualms improved them in my eyes. You guys do know you can't just wait till I die, that will make you two look even worse. And I'm not asking much, address my points, provide proof for your claims I have problems with our prove I have no basis for my allegations.

Asek I wanna see your magical Walrein is dead list preferably soon. Or you join the above.

Blank Slate, whydon, vanillish, aubisio, martin, smashlloyd, shubaka, pancake, acidphoenix. If I don't see consistent contributions from you guys during the day, I will lynch you regardless of reasoning. Your actions allow the mafia to hide and greatly make the life of scumhunters harder. I do not care what or how you do it as long as you actively work on finding scrum in more than 2 posts made near deadline. Special shout out to acid, shubaka and blank slate for being actual suspects regardless.

Blaster I'd like a comprehensive deadliest from you even if only on those you have any strong feelings on, around a small paragraph's worth of feelings.

Fort I'm starting to suspect you a good deal and only my greater ones overshadowing it keep you in check. I'd like you to do what I told blazers to do as well so I can judge you better.

At this point in time I feel the Texas lynch is pointless what with his claim about being used toto inspect me and a copuke susupporting this claim. I'd certainly wait what the mafia intends to do with him before moving despite questionable content in the second half of the day. Still right now all Texas discussions feel pointless.

Buttered Toast is my lower profile suspect I feel. He had good posts and bad posts but I feel the good ones have little actual scumhunting present. His last post of the day also raised certain alarms.

Finally who I will vote Former Hope. Even with haruno and moody I had posts I have no problems with, with former such a post on day 1 doesn't exist. For a fair amount of posting lacks any initiative or meaningful statement. Also plenty of more farfetched reasoning I highlighted in my list.

Unvote Vote Former Hope

I also highly advise everyone read what I wrote about them and if they have any problems or explanations i wanna hear them yesterday.(I sseriously eexpected way more flack yesterday.) I ESPECIALLY THINK the Activities of haruno, martin, pancake and former hope were non existent, at least I expected outrage.
 

Asek

Banned deucer.
I had to unexpectedly work a double and my mouth is filled with ulcers and im so fucking sore but im getting my post in SAH.

Can I also just say for a second here: I'm not opposed at all to a Moody lynch today. I think lynching Moody provides us with some very important information: if he flips scum it basically completely clears every single person who was on his wagon, and provides a much narrower focus for following day: we basically look at who was on cancerous and we should be able to scumhunt / iso that pool extremely well to flush out other scum. If he flips town I'm more likely to believe that there lies mafia in that pool who were trying to force a tie and simullynch 2 villagers in one cycle, whilst accountabilty is lessened around due to the fact that 2 go off and theres a lot more people who can be looked at as to why it happened. I think the scum flip is a lot more valuable then the village flip, but both sets of data are of interest and are important to me at least.


My thoughts on walrein flip? Well theres the easy connection to make here that both cancerous and walrein can be connected to ButteredToast (please stop using BT here - BT brings to mind another user). Walrein and butteredtoast could be seen as 'buddying' in a sense for yesterday if we hindsight read into cancerous's main points (indeed the only real insight into what cancerous was thinkign was through this walrein and ButteredToast relation). By walrein 'flipping' town (yes this is the assumption we're running off isnt it????) BT eases a lot of pressure if A) the main person proposing a scum theory is no longer around to do so and B) the person he was seen as being in cahoots with is town. Ergo, I'm fine with considering BT scum on a face value analysis of those 2 events together, no WIFOM motives from other sources being considered here.


Then theres 1 other major person who gains from walrein flipping as far as im concerned and that is lightwolf. Yesteday I outlined 'the faction that walrein is on, I believe you to be the same' with the defending wrt lynch. Going back to that point I'd argue lightwolf has reason to kill walrein last night to me. IF walrein dies Lightwolf can keep pushing me for the results in the walrein flip that I said it would reveal to me, whereas now I also have to deal with WIFOM that is nightkills in relation to walreins death! Walrein generally townreads lightwolf as far as a i can remember as well, but is generally a player i would of expected to pick up on potential scum game from lightwolf coming in at a later point. From a scum!lightwolf perspective, walrein is one of the safest kills to make as there is no overlying scum reading from walrein onto lightwolf being made, and it allows for pressure, translating to a scumread to be continiously applied to asek from day1 to day2 in relation to desiring a walrein flip for information goes. It also makes me look inconsistent because I say that they are likely on the same faction!!!!

Dearly departed cancerous would of had a bit more revelaed on his motives if he was still with us in a post walrein world but alas! it was not meant to be.

Other stuffs in relation to 'town' walrein - blank slate looks like more of a bad bandwagoner because of that. I'm more inclined to believe texas is town - his voice and shift away from the walrein lynch when he was previously ok with a bandwagon vote and putting forth a case as he did on cancerou sinstead (one i did not agree with at all if it must be said) came from a town perspective to me. There may be other more relevatn stuff I can dig into, but I will do so when I'm not tired

Now I move onto todays events so far! In all honesty I have no interest in reading into haruno and whomevers arguing at this point, I'll save that for a post flip on one of the involved parties. Now, more importantly WHY THE FUCK ARE TOWN ROLES CLAIMING THEIR ABILITIES. Helllooo? This is already a bad idea as is, but have you forgotten you can send in what your role fucking does to the mailbox and have someone go via proxy and state what kind of power we have? I know that scum sending in bullshit through that system also works both ways, but eventually we wil be able to sort what information is reliable and what isnt via results and demanding claim of a certain role for results. In fact I am going to propose now that everyone sends in their abilities through mailbox tonight then the reciever (probably) public displays tomorrow. this will effectively make this somewhat open set up and a lot easier for town to win as far as Im concerned I seriously don't understand why you guys are applying a big fucking target over your head right now.

Also stop bringing up policy lynching the idlers at this point, especially aubisio. Aubisio and most of the other people not posting will do so regardless of faction, this shit isnt allignment indicitive and the fact that it is idling policy lynch means theres no real accountability for the town flip there: town is just as complicit in that lynch as mafia are.

TO cap off heres where I stand right now

Happy to lynch: ButteredToast = lightwolf > moody > blankslate

Not happy but complicit: most of the remainder of this playlist

Wouldnt lynch today: Haruno, FortColorCastle

FWIW i believe in the prescence of an omniguard in this game


im going to sleep
 

LightWolf

lightwoof
is a Forum Moderator Alumnus
Heavily disagree on policy lynching. The point of the threat is to make them stop idling and giving an easy hiding spot for any scrum in their numbers. If they fail to comply then one of them is made an example of so they know it is serious. You can hardly win a noc with a good chunk of the players being complicit in hiding filers and being a detriment to the village.

It is blatantly anti town to even suggest to not judge these people because if there is a mafia in the group and with such a high number of them it's nearly guaranteed there is one. It's literally throwing the game if they are just left to their devices. So the ultimatum is simple, play or die. Best case no one has to die because they tried to actively contribute.

Also good finally someone accused me of offing Walrein, like I'm the only person who would likely make that choice. Heck I admit I'd probs do it as scum because I'm confident in my play, and trust that people will continue reading me townish. If anyone including Asek wishes to pursue this line of thinking, I respectfully request that I'm judged for my actions not that I'd have killed Walrein therefore I killed Walrein.

Either way adding asek to my lynch list, his flip conclusions scream wifom. Walrein was in the end eliminated because he was a general threat anything above that is a bonus, including his lack of heavy cases with the exception of blank slate.
 
Yeah uh this is definitely turning into a bit of a clusterfuck. As discussed earlier I wouldn't lynch Texas, Lightwolf, or Haruno. Aubisio is almost definitely mafia but doesn't really seem to be trying to contribute in any significant way so I would feel fine about leaving him for another day but he's definitely a good fallback target. I think Blank Slate would be a better lynch today because he's actually being active but is almost definitely scum, but I'd be willing to change my vote to Aubisio if that's the direction the lynch heads in towards the end of the day.
 
LightWolf: townread. Aggressive play, threatening the idlers and constant interrogation feel very towny. LW's play also seems to focus on what's best for getting the game moving instead of sitting around and waiting for the mafia to kill us.
Texas: slight scumlean. I don't like how Texas claimed a role, and it honestly seems too reckless to be town play. It seems more like panicked scum play, although the rest of his play seems fairly towny. I'll need to watch him further to be confident in this.
Haruno: I scumread Haruno D1, but now I feel like that was town play. The style was strange and it made me very suspicious, but more recent posts seem more towny. Slight townlean.
Fort: scumlean. Your play seems very suspicious. I just can't put my finger on it.
Idlers: I haven't seen enough of your posts to get any kind of reliable sense of your alignment, but consider yourselves scummy at worst and worthless at best in my eyes.
 
I want to hear some type of opinions on Blazade. When he posts they are on point and makes sense from a town perspective, but he seems to pick and choose his spots and the fact that NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT HIM is weird to me.
 
i honestly want to lynch aubisio on not-even-policy but actual scumminess - lurking is cause for policy, filler is cause for scum(the lack of posts is a lot less alarming frankly than literally 6 posts without any relation to actually looking for scum)

actually missed what lw said about blazade completely from him but agree

also adding asek to my one-or-two-of-these-are-scum pool(asek, knights, martin, smash, blazade now)
 
Yeah, there's a reason why I'm not in Bradiest, I don't have time to make wallposts like I usually do. However while Lightwolf has the right to expect more content from me the others agreeing with him should look in the mirror and post more quality content before judging.

Also that bit about the letters was something I didn't notice until today, that much have been edited into that post because I did not see it at all. We should absolutely be shipping our role info to a host confirmed town lmao.

First off: idlepool

Whydon
Vanillish
Aubisio
pancake
shubaka
acidphoenix
Blank Slate
Former Hope
Martin (fucking let the guys sub when he asks for it)

This pool is way, WAY too fucking big. There's almost no way to sort through any of them and there are SURELY scum in here. This is not something we're dealing with either, even if I don't know how to approach it.

Town pool:

Texas - Essentially lock town for me, behavior, actions, evidence and reactions. I don't feel I need to say more but feel free to ask.

Haruno - Picked himself up from a crappy Day 1 and appears to acting independently. He pressures people like Texas when I don't think it would make sense for scum to do that, doesn't appear to be covering for anyone, and doesn't appear to be working with anyone in bandwagoning or leasing his vote out. solid 8/10 town read.

Moody Cloud- One of these fucking days, moody's incredibly self centered reads are going to earn him a scum read from me but today isn't that day. I read a towny level of defensiveness from him Day 1 (Defending his ideas and theories, not himself) which continues into day 2.

Buttered Toast- reads like he usually does, and hasn't given me a reason to be suspicious, but this is the read most likely to change.

Null pull with copious reasons either way:

smashlloyd - I had him in scum for vote patterns but the impromptu claim makes no sense from scum in that position. It could be a bait, however, or a way to try to lynch Haruno? This isn't something we ever lynch today, however.

Lightwolf- has had a strong showing, but being safeguarded is a more sure sign he could be mafia than town imo. (I am not by any stretch asking for a town SG claim don't you fucking dare we will sort this shit out later) (also I just looked through Fort's iso and saw his target claim so there's that). I think his vote pattern is currently a little suspect, and he'll always have good reasoning either way, but I also have zero solid evidence against him. I think it's better to read him from how other people flip.

Fort Colorcaste- I don't see the scum case for, frankly. I think he's been trying to contribute. I think at one point choosing to pick sides in the Moody Cloud / Lightwolf fight could mean he was protecting Lightwolf but that's about it. I think a lot of the people that were pushing him were town, so there's something to be said for that.

Lean Scum:

Blank Slate, Former Hope- I'll mention here because vote timing matters, and I firmly believe that. Blank put a vote on Walrein out of nowhere when it was right at the cusp of deadline to put that lynch over the edge, and Former Hope at a very detached attitude about lynching Cancerous ("He's better than the other guys don't blame me I'm not game solving lmao") but I have to believe he'd get someone else on his team to vote for him if there wasn't time pressure.

Asek - Is scum a lot which affects how I read him but his town and scumgame being similar (with a history of not turning up in situations like this) make the read difficult. I put him on being smart enough to push Walrein for a town read on on him. He wasn't a part of the cancerous lynch but I didn't like his pre flip associations, or a lot of his reads.

Knights - Does RQS even when he's scum and usually takes a more active role. I know for a fact he's likely to lay lower when he's scum from his conversations in Deathnote so this tips me a little

Normally I'd have something better to say, some greater insight, but I'm at a loss for the most part. I've gave comments as they were appropriate throughout the game but there isn't enough evidence for a bigger picture. I can take a postshot at an idle, or lynch anyone in my scum pool. This kind of dicking around tends to lead to compromise lynches which invariably flip town.

unvote vote blankslate

I think this is the play but I can definitely change before deadline.
 
Yeah, seeing Light vote a player for voting Walrein doesn't jibe with the killer Light theory. If Light really wanted Walrein dead, then defending him by attacking a wagoner is counterintuitive.

Went through Butter's D1 posts. First time I've seen him play and I don't know how long he's been at it, but not knowing what a reaction test is and being overall friendly and inquisitive is giving me an honest newbie/friendly neighborhood VI vibe from him.

MoodyCloud waiting for you to answer #442
 
If Walrein flips as scum, I'll be rethinking my read on Light. But Light's posts show that he's determined to scumhunt and was against Walrein's lynch. You just gotta read past the attitude.
 

pancake

movement and location
is a Contributor Alumnus
Sorry for inactivity. I've been busy this weekend.

I'm pretty sure Haruno is being a fucking idiot because he is ignoring the most obvious possibility lol (for the texas inspect shit). Honestly I think he is too good to do that so I'm dismissing him as being a fucking idiot for now. Texas is p obvious town even though he was bad during day 1 (like really bad lol) and I wouldn't question the announcement too much if I were you. Also why the fuck do you think there's scum on moodycloud where he hasn't even FLIPPED lol, he's either playing bad or is scum. I also think lightwolf is town, just because his contributions are pretty good and his posts do have some meet to them and are consistent. I don't understand why people are freaking out about him lol.

Blank Slate is definitely being added to my scumreads because his posts have little to no quality content and also just sound absolutely ridiculous lmao. I strongly support a lynch. unvote MoodyCloud Lynch Blank Slate2356.
I still scumread moodycloud but he has gotten slightly better since yesterday to the point where there is a chance that he could POSSIBLY be just bad town, albeit a small one. The post where he lynches smashlloyd for claiming a PR is an absolutely ABYSMAL play on his part, but I like how he is encouraging posting from certain idlers that haven't given real info as opposed to idlers who have. also smashlloyd is being bad as fuck no one claim prs yet, but no reason to lynch him :( but texas was also being bad so w/e NO ONE CLAIM FOR THE FUTURE.

I will keep you guys updated but this is where my lynch stands for now. I may switch back to moody depending on his future posts.
 
I don't like a blank slate lynch, I townread him as I do with the walrein wagonners (though Asek is becoming null read), will make a lengthier post later. Atm I agree with a smashlloyd, shubaka or pancake lynch (latter seems too blatantly taking lynchbaits to really be scum but I dislike his contribution)
 
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