true rands / troll kills are pretty weak in a big game where you have so many good targets. remember that presumably they wouldn't have known that RODAN was the bg.
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Big Lord of the Rings Mafia - Game Over! Forces of Sauron Win!
- Thread starter UncleSam
- Start date
I absolutely refuse to believe that RODAN's death was a rand. There are DEFINITELY some big names in the village, if you have to rand why not name kill? You have a good chance of hitting a power role, and not only that but you kill someone intelligent. No one is scared of RODAN's scumhunting abilities. This was a purposeful kill. They knew he was the bodyguard.
Since it's the only lead we have, I'm just going to start the vote on one of the two people that are potentially the cause of RODAN's kill.
Lynch Lightwolf
Also, in a 1 mafia game, there's hardly any reason to not claim who the cleaned villagers are, LightWolf. It's not like you're protecting their identity from the mafia. The mafia KNOWS they are villagers. Why are you withholding this information?
Since it's the only lead we have, I'm just going to start the vote on one of the two people that are potentially the cause of RODAN's kill.
Lynch Lightwolf
Also, in a 1 mafia game, there's hardly any reason to not claim who the cleaned villagers are, LightWolf. It's not like you're protecting their identity from the mafia. The mafia KNOWS they are villagers. Why are you withholding this information?
are we certain there aren't neutrals or anything, i mean, there were 2 kills this past night.
I do think Lightwolf should be pressured and looked into, but I don't think he should be lynched just yet. If he is telling the truth, we lose a good role, and learn nothing about RODAN's death. I will Vote Lightwolf for pressure for now.
I do think Lightwolf should be pressured and looked into, but I don't think he should be lynched just yet. If he is telling the truth, we lose a good role, and learn nothing about RODAN's death. I will Vote Lightwolf for pressure for now.
I'm withholding who they are because I want them alive to take over when I die. And no mafia doesn't know they are villagers, for all they know they are potentially neutrals. I will not give the mafia prime targets to remove everyone in the known only to have the claiming business restart.
And again LN, you provided the PERFECT reasoning as to why RODAN died, I have talked to plenty vanillas this game and many of them were extremely let down by the nature of their role and mentioning offhand how uninterested they have been mostly(I WILL NOT NAME NAMES, sorry US I won't rat them out!). You yourself stated that RODAN has been trying to be active and sounded very interested, enough of a cue for a possible N0 inspection to head his way or even a N1 kill!
Most of the big names in this game don't matter one bit, info is low, fake claiming is piss easy, days are NOC, please tell me what tools do big names exactly have at their disposal? Most are way out their comfort zone this game, getting a likely power role is far more important considering we are STARVED for them. Not all that hard to figure out when you realise the size of the game and the existence of of two different vanilla groups. If they wish to kill someone experienced, it'd be someone with NOC experience really. If RODAN's behavior marked him as a potential Power Role I don't see the mafia going for it as such an oddity.
Also why would the mafia me even kill RODAN? If RODAN claimed to me I essentially control his role, and due to the nature of the game I don't even mind adding him to my sheet if he asked me in case you want to use that reasoning, as long as I can tell him what to do I can safely kill whoever I want to. Instead killing RODAN leads to me being obviously open to dying every other night, it practically DOOMS mafia me, since people would notice I'm not being killed when I should be. Keeping RODAN alive benefits mafia me far more than offing him there and then, and we can't argue against that flavour, that was a mafia kill. So do tell me why I would put myself into a position where people would question my leadership when there is no actual benefit to offing RODAN who claimed his role to me according to your theory?
Well there is one option you may want to bring up against me: Due to my circumstances near the end of the night I was unable to prevent my allies from killing RODAN. Against that I bring up the following point: Even after it happened, I got on my sister's laptop quick and continued trying to accumulate claims as well as informing the host of my predicament. This included you LN though you never even bothered to respond. I was actually in the middle of a talk with upside when it happened, so he can confirm the exact timing of my screen breaking. If I managed to do at least that there is no way I would leave without telling my team in detail who the fuck they shouldn't kill. Say they went against my orders, may I ask after everything above I listed, who the fuck would kill RODAN if I was their team mate? I don't expect even 1 of you to do so.
That being said, there is just too much wrong with your accusations LN, you ignore points you yourself bring up that even to you were clear giveaways towards RODAN'S apparent interest in this game. You also fail to consider basics such as why the fuck would I even risk killing RODAN in favour of just accusing me to throw the village leadership into disarray. There was literally no reason for me to kill RODAN or let my team mates kill him while I was having trouble, and I don't buy LN not considering the consequences of such a kill at all.
Lynch LonelyNess
tl;dr: Nope you gotta read it
And again LN, you provided the PERFECT reasoning as to why RODAN died, I have talked to plenty vanillas this game and many of them were extremely let down by the nature of their role and mentioning offhand how uninterested they have been mostly(I WILL NOT NAME NAMES, sorry US I won't rat them out!). You yourself stated that RODAN has been trying to be active and sounded very interested, enough of a cue for a possible N0 inspection to head his way or even a N1 kill!
Most of the big names in this game don't matter one bit, info is low, fake claiming is piss easy, days are NOC, please tell me what tools do big names exactly have at their disposal? Most are way out their comfort zone this game, getting a likely power role is far more important considering we are STARVED for them. Not all that hard to figure out when you realise the size of the game and the existence of of two different vanilla groups. If they wish to kill someone experienced, it'd be someone with NOC experience really. If RODAN's behavior marked him as a potential Power Role I don't see the mafia going for it as such an oddity.
Also why would the mafia me even kill RODAN? If RODAN claimed to me I essentially control his role, and due to the nature of the game I don't even mind adding him to my sheet if he asked me in case you want to use that reasoning, as long as I can tell him what to do I can safely kill whoever I want to. Instead killing RODAN leads to me being obviously open to dying every other night, it practically DOOMS mafia me, since people would notice I'm not being killed when I should be. Keeping RODAN alive benefits mafia me far more than offing him there and then, and we can't argue against that flavour, that was a mafia kill. So do tell me why I would put myself into a position where people would question my leadership when there is no actual benefit to offing RODAN who claimed his role to me according to your theory?
Well there is one option you may want to bring up against me: Due to my circumstances near the end of the night I was unable to prevent my allies from killing RODAN. Against that I bring up the following point: Even after it happened, I got on my sister's laptop quick and continued trying to accumulate claims as well as informing the host of my predicament. This included you LN though you never even bothered to respond. I was actually in the middle of a talk with upside when it happened, so he can confirm the exact timing of my screen breaking. If I managed to do at least that there is no way I would leave without telling my team in detail who the fuck they shouldn't kill. Say they went against my orders, may I ask after everything above I listed, who the fuck would kill RODAN if I was their team mate? I don't expect even 1 of you to do so.
That being said, there is just too much wrong with your accusations LN, you ignore points you yourself bring up that even to you were clear giveaways towards RODAN'S apparent interest in this game. You also fail to consider basics such as why the fuck would I even risk killing RODAN in favour of just accusing me to throw the village leadership into disarray. There was literally no reason for me to kill RODAN or let my team mates kill him while I was having trouble, and I don't buy LN not considering the consequences of such a kill at all.
Lynch LonelyNess
tl;dr: Nope you gotta read it
Hey, Paperblade, since you're reading this right now: When this day began, why did you just agree with Eagle's reasoning without doing anything else?
Don't really know how to address this. I jumped off the TIK lynch because it made sense to me. Eagle4 had a solid argument, the fact that nobody seemed to oppose the lynch very much was probably an indicator that he was town. I've been a bit noncommittal with my lynch vote because there hasn't been any strong evidence to lynch anyone in particular, if that is what you mean by "minor pressure".
I'm not sure I'd want to commit to a Lonelyness lynch today, but in terms of big names I'm pretty certain at least one of lonelyness and or zorbees is mafia.
I'm still a bit more interested in Acklow though, who has been acting like a buffoon. I don't mean an idiot, either side can act like idiots, but Acklow has done nothing but waste time with pc++.
I'm still a bit more interested in Acklow though, who has been acting like a buffoon. I don't mean an idiot, either side can act like idiots, but Acklow has done nothing but waste time with pc++.
I agree with LW and von in that those three are suspicious. But...I'll be honest. Eagle4 has had to be dragged kicking and screaming quite a bit. My gut tells me he is village, but...the posts in the thread are making me reconsider. It's almost as if he is trying to tear down anyone who is fairly competent making an attempt at leading, so I can inadvertantly send the village to a fiery grave.
And Paperblade Christ will you stop parroting, stop bandwagoning, and post an original thought that is more than 2 sentences?
Blue_Tornado still seems suspicious to me, for reasons similar to zorbees.
And I gotta go back to work. Ttfn!
And Paperblade Christ will you stop parroting, stop bandwagoning, and post an original thought that is more than 2 sentences?
Blue_Tornado still seems suspicious to me, for reasons similar to zorbees.
And I gotta go back to work. Ttfn!
I'd like to thank Ullar for helping me pressure Paperblade. Though I would love some more votes on Paperblade to make him talk.
Acklow
I am always tired. Don't bother me.
Fair enough, in this post I'll outline my current reads.
But first:
I was merely speculating but then I realized I tl;dr'd the OP and there was a part that explains exactly:
UncleSam said:
Prior to reading this, I thought that maybe that would spark discussion about it, yes. I don't know the answer, and I thought maybe the opinions of other people would offer me some insight as to what powers the orc vote may have had. No reason speculating about it now, though, since the OP pretty much answers that.
Now for reads on leads. Mind you this is all based on players who have been relatively active vs. a list of everyone because that's a waste of my time:
UllarWarlord: Most of the material he has posted has been pro-village. I think his claim is a little odd considering Gondor, and he did bring up a target that was mislynched. However taking all things into account I think it was just him screwing up.
LightWolf: I think he's pretty legit. I do agree that his role pm seems fishy what with the "observing" and what not, but based on the content of his most recent posts I think he is what he says he is. I highly disagree going through with a lynch on this guy. It just doesn't make sense that he would off RODAN only to make himself look scummy. It could just be WIFOM, but I think it's most likely not.
Paperblade: Has been pretty much making short posts that agree or echo what other people say. It's really not that much of a contribution and so I can't say I feel anything village from him or not.
LonelyNess: Made some good points about RODAN's death. However, I don't agree with the reasons he outlined when he called LightWolf out. It almost seems like he's trying to dig for reasons just to make LightWolf seem scummy. I feel he may be scumteam.
zorbees: I don't think there's enough evidence to point to him being town or mafia. The fact that he joined LN on a lynch on LW doesn't really help but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt since he's mainly been voting only to pressure.
vonFiedler: Not really sure what your thing is against me but you've been really aggressive this entire game. You've consistently called other players out and it's been kind of bugging me. One thing I do want to point out is von's interaction with Jalmont the previous day. I can't tell if that was a case of mafia vs. mafia or village vs. village or village vs. mafia, but I can say that if at least one of the two ever turn village, we should take a look at the other person and examine their actions/conversations.
Aura Guardian: Hasn't really been posting a whole lot, but he prodded Paperblade with a question at the start of the day and Paperblade still hasn't answered that question. I don't have any reads on him.
This is what I have for now in terms of reads on other players. I really hate these kinds of posts but I feel like this is the only way I can really help out at this point because like I said earlier, in a BIG game with partial NOC, it's highly likely most of the stuff people post is going to be regurgitated constantly.
I want to put some pressure on Vote LonelyNess. Mostly because I feel like his latest post is really scummy and seems like he's just trying to throw mud around.
Page 14, Post #336
The example I can think of instantly (beyond having to look up the numbers)
Attention villagers, when the mafia kills me, feel free to lynch Acklow instead of Jalmont for setting this narrative up. Like seriously if either of us were mafia, why would we kill the other? This feels like you're setting one of us up here.
Acklow
I am always tired. Don't bother me.
Hey, all I am saying is that the two of you had a fight. I'm not setting any narrative up if it happened. I never said either of you would kill the either, I think that would be dumb. You're twisting my words and just trying to throw me under the bus here.
Well actually with him pointing out how if one flips town the other is mafia, it actually opens up the option to do that AND claim to having been framed, it's p much what Celever did when he killed me, whole thread believed the framing to be the case. It's honestly a neutral case and complete WIFOM and I urge everyone to not consider it at all if it comes to one of them dying. That being said I don't like either of you trying to reason it being any kind of proof of the alignment of anyone in this threesome argument.
And yet again, Paperblade does not give an accounting of his actions early this day. I no longer anticipate changing my vote. Paperblade, one last time: Why did you basically just jump behind Eagle's post early this day (page 14), and why are your posts not contributing much in general today? I mean, you also jumped behind LW's reasoning without adding much at all.
Paperblade is my top suspect for mafia.
Paperblade is my top suspect for mafia.
Okay, fucking tired so this might not be the most well sounded but here it goes. I've read over some stuff today, but not everything. Things here and there to get a general feel. Will try to catch up when I am awake.
[1] 2 Kills. I'm going to assume that the village vote vig (YAY ALLITERATION!) did not have enough votes to activate because so many votes were on TIK and the rest were scattered. Either very small numbers, or there is a wolf/hidden maf.
[2] If I was mafia, I would not waste an inspect on RODAN because the idle is strong in that one. Not saying it isn't possible, just not as likely. Also, weren't multiple people collecting claims? And even so, I doubt RODAN would be active enough to actually claim to people. Although apparently LN said something about RODAN trying to be more active. Wow, rereading that there is a lot of indecision. Eh, whatever.
[3] When I was setting up this post, I put a number 3 here but I can't remember for the life of me what it was. I will try and post it as soon as I remember.
[1] 2 Kills. I'm going to assume that the village vote vig (YAY ALLITERATION!) did not have enough votes to activate because so many votes were on TIK and the rest were scattered. Either very small numbers, or there is a wolf/hidden maf.
[2] If I was mafia, I would not waste an inspect on RODAN because the idle is strong in that one. Not saying it isn't possible, just not as likely. Also, weren't multiple people collecting claims? And even so, I doubt RODAN would be active enough to actually claim to people. Although apparently LN said something about RODAN trying to be more active. Wow, rereading that there is a lot of indecision. Eh, whatever.
[3] When I was setting up this post, I put a number 3 here but I can't remember for the life of me what it was. I will try and post it as soon as I remember.
Because I'm watching TI4 which lasts from like 9AM to 10PM my time. I posted instead of saying nothing because my initial reaction to the flip was "Wow that's suspicious" then eagle4 said something very similar. Expressing that opinion may have a bad idea because some people seem to want to lynch between people who may have known Rodan's role which is an insane witch hunt. There's also weird slapfights like von vs. jalmont which comes off to me like one guy found the other suspicious then the other got offended and found the other suspicious for finding him suspicious and it just escalated.
The people worth looking at today are those that are trying to effort or look like they effort'd but also moved along the TIK wagon. zorbees was suspicious enough yesterday when I wasn't even sure about TIK, I just feel like he's phony. Similar for Acklow today.
The people worth looking at today are those that are trying to effort or look like they effort'd but also moved along the TIK wagon. zorbees was suspicious enough yesterday when I wasn't even sure about TIK, I just feel like he's phony. Similar for Acklow today.
I actually don't fault people for accusing LW before his defense, I was actually going to post something against him but his most recent tl;dr post makes me MUCH less suspicious of him. If mafia, LW had no reason to kill a bodyguard who claimed to him, since that bodyguard would have been protecting him anyway.
In regards to Acklow's point about von vs jalmont, while we can't say that if one flips town then the other is mafia, we can say that if one flips mafia the other is more likely to be town. Their argument seems genuine to me.
LonelyNess
vonFiedler
You said that you thought one of zorbees and LonelyNess was mafia - is there some reason why you think this is the case or do they both just appear suspicious to you?
zorbees
Ditto
Your last two posts really strike as strange to me. Maybe you are just tired but damn, a post saying "sorry my internet sucked" and another where you say "LOL i forgot about point number 3!" just seems manufactured to me.
Upside
Flamestrike
You suggested a tie lynch plan on Day 1 which immediately put you on my radar as someone not to be trusted. Tie lynches are piss easy to mess up, a negative vote / zero vote is extremely common as a mafia role, especially in an NOC game like this one basically is.
You said that TIK "looked pretty sketchy" and implied that in the case of his death if he's a villager that "at least we would get some information out of it". This is a really nice way to a) not implicate yourself if TIK is lynched and a villager, b) try to convince other people to vote TIK and incriminate themselves with c) faulty logic that even if TIK is a villager that a TIK lynch would be a good idea
http://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/lord-of-the-rings-mafia-day-2.3511055/page-7#post-5575899
This is not the most solid of my points in retrospect, but these were the posts I had just read when I made that point.
In regards to Acklow's point about von vs jalmont, while we can't say that if one flips town then the other is mafia, we can say that if one flips mafia the other is more likely to be town. Their argument seems genuine to me.
LonelyNess
The fuck? Giving a list of clean villagers obviously gives the mafia a list of people to kill ASAP. I find it difficult to believe that you wouldn't think of this. There's also only very limited value in knowing who clean villagers are. Cleaned villagers don't give nearly as much information as confirmed mafiamen.
vonFiedler
You said that you thought one of zorbees and LonelyNess was mafia - is there some reason why you think this is the case or do they both just appear suspicious to you?
zorbees
I just want to point out that this post starts out with no capital letters and then ends with capital letters. Possible scumtell?
Ditto
Your last two posts really strike as strange to me. Maybe you are just tired but damn, a post saying "sorry my internet sucked" and another where you say "LOL i forgot about point number 3!" just seems manufactured to me.
Upside
Vote Upside talk to me pls
Flamestrike
You suggested a tie lynch plan on Day 1 which immediately put you on my radar as someone not to be trusted. Tie lynches are piss easy to mess up, a negative vote / zero vote is extremely common as a mafia role, especially in an NOC game like this one basically is.
You said that TIK "looked pretty sketchy" and implied that in the case of his death if he's a villager that "at least we would get some information out of it". This is a really nice way to a) not implicate yourself if TIK is lynched and a villager, b) try to convince other people to vote TIK and incriminate themselves with c) faulty logic that even if TIK is a villager that a TIK lynch would be a good idea
http://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/lord-of-the-rings-mafia-day-2.3511055/page-9#post-5576357flamestrike (paraphrasing) said:
http://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/lord-of-the-rings-mafia-day-2.3511055/page-7#post-5575899
This is not the most solid of my points in retrospect, but these were the posts I had just read when I made that point.
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