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The Everything Minor League (NCAA) Football Thread : 2014-2015
- Thread starter AlphaSpade
- Start date
xJownage
Even pendulums swing both ways
PICKS!!!
Oklahoma over Baylor, 31-28
This is a revenge game for Oklahoma, and everybody remembers the whipping Baylor put on them last year. At home, in front of a fired up crowd, I really think there is little chance Baylor wins. Score says its close, but to me, it being close means Baylor has no chance. Sooners are hot, Baylor may be distracted after the loss to WVU, and the Baylor offense doesn't have enough weapons to overpower Oklahoma in the matchups. The Baylor offense won't have an easy time, and Baylor's defense is only good.
Michigan State over Ohio State, 31-17
Ohio State has played well offensively in recent weeks, but they have yet to face a good defense. Michigan State has one of the best in the country, and in the game of the year for the big 10 on national TV their offense will not be able to muster the sudden ability to move the ball against an elite defense. Michigan State's offense is great at ball control and will run the clock for virtually the entire game, not just running the ball but managing the passing game as well. There are only good things to say about Michigan State in this game, the only way Ohio State wins is if they come out and somehow can control the clock.
LSU over Alabama, 20-17
UPSET SPECIAL!!! LSU set a perfect trap against ole miss, and I think they can easily do the same against Alabama. When you diagnose how the LSU defense so completely shut down the Ole Miss offense, you realize they brought quick inside pressure from the linebackers and it completely shut down the Ole Miss running game, forcing Bo Wallace to make plays with his arm only. Ole Miss and Alabama have extremely similar running game concepts; and I trust that Les Miles will be able to iron out the differences in the two running games and come up with a concept that shuts down Alabama the same way they did Ole Miss. This will force Blake Sims to make plays with his arm and his arm only, which is exactly how MSU will beat OSU, and exactly how LSU beat Ole Miss. Blake Sims will have to grow up if Bama will win this game, because he has to make the plays. Will he do that? I don't think a sudden maturity change is likely.
Auburn over Texas A&M, 38-17
A&M with Hill struggled because half of the time they dropped his passes and their defense is mediocre. Without Hill, what do you think is going to happen?
Kansas State over TCU, 28-27
The Bill Snyder Formula. Here is what Snyder has forced KState teams to do over the years, and all the good teams are all of these qualities:
1. Play Sound Defense
2. Don't commit penalties
3. Don't commit turnovers
4. Run the ball, manage the clock.
The more and better KState teams adhere to this, the better teams they have been historically. This KState team is no different. You remember when their defense was shutting down Auburn on a thursday night earlier this season? They don't commit penalties often (they had one run in, again against auburn), they don't turn the ball over (again, except against auburn), and they manage the clock consistently. I don't think they will completely shut down TCU's explosive offense, I DO think that they will keep TCU's offense in front of them enough to make several stops and force a couple of turnovers. They won't make mistakes, and will play their butts off. This is what Bill Snyder teams do. If you think that playing soundly won't be enough to beat TCU, just look at the Auburn game. A pass off their star recievers hands in the end zone that is intercepted, a dropped interception, a pair of other uncharacteristic turnovers that led to auburn points...these aren't things that just happen together because a team is bad, it just wasn't their night against auburn. The reality is, however, that they outplayed auburn. They should have beaten them, but made uncharacteristic mistakes that cost them the game. There is nothing to suggest that they would let that happen again, and if you suggest TCU will outplay KSU you are suggesting that TCU is a significantly better team than Auburn, which to me is absolutely silly. Bill Snyder's defense will shut down the big plays, and without those, TCU's offense won't be putting up nearly the point total. They will get some scores, but it just won't be enough.
Utah Over Oregon, 41-35
Oregon has a history of losing after beating Stanford, having "letdowns" on both sides of the ball, but that is not at all what this is about. This is the same sort of trap game that made ole miss succumb to LSU in death valley. Utah has a great offense, but there isin't much you can use to figure them out, as they have not played a lot of great games. They always seem to just play, and they go out there and dominate, but there hasn't been much strategy in their offense due to them not having to use it. They have plenty of things up their sleeve, but they have not opened up the playbook all year, and are due to pull out all the stops against a powerful oregon team. A win here would be amazing for Utah in terms of publicity, and they will do everything in their power to make it happen. Oregon's offense may get suprised, Utah's defense is FAST. Reminiscent of recent FSU defenses in regards to their speed, they close on everything in the same way the seahawks do in the NFL. The Utes will keep things in front of them, and then they will swarm like hawks. This upset relies on Oregon's offense getting a slight suprise by the Utes speed, because otherwise Utah may not be able to win a shootout against a mostly superior team. The Utes should outmaneuver the Ducks early on, and their fast defense will be enough to hold off the Oregon offense. Expect some trick plays and different looks from what the Utes have shown so far this season.
Notre Dame over Arizona State, 35-31
Notre dame plays up to their superior opponents and down to their inferior ones, plain and simple. They are a very good team that just doesn't always play 100%. In a really big game, Notre Dame will come through imo, they are thoroughly a great team due to Everett Golson and will go as far as he takes them in terms of offense. His dual threat ability makes him a great QB, and his arm talent is not lacking at all.
This is a revenge game for Oklahoma, and everybody remembers the whipping Baylor put on them last year. At home, in front of a fired up crowd, I really think there is little chance Baylor wins. Score says its close, but to me, it being close means Baylor has no chance. Sooners are hot, Baylor may be distracted after the loss to WVU, and the Baylor offense doesn't have enough weapons to overpower Oklahoma in the matchups. The Baylor offense won't have an easy time, and Baylor's defense is only good.
Michigan State over Ohio State, 31-17
Ohio State has played well offensively in recent weeks, but they have yet to face a good defense. Michigan State has one of the best in the country, and in the game of the year for the big 10 on national TV their offense will not be able to muster the sudden ability to move the ball against an elite defense. Michigan State's offense is great at ball control and will run the clock for virtually the entire game, not just running the ball but managing the passing game as well. There are only good things to say about Michigan State in this game, the only way Ohio State wins is if they come out and somehow can control the clock.
LSU over Alabama, 20-17
UPSET SPECIAL!!! LSU set a perfect trap against ole miss, and I think they can easily do the same against Alabama. When you diagnose how the LSU defense so completely shut down the Ole Miss offense, you realize they brought quick inside pressure from the linebackers and it completely shut down the Ole Miss running game, forcing Bo Wallace to make plays with his arm only. Ole Miss and Alabama have extremely similar running game concepts; and I trust that Les Miles will be able to iron out the differences in the two running games and come up with a concept that shuts down Alabama the same way they did Ole Miss. This will force Blake Sims to make plays with his arm and his arm only, which is exactly how MSU will beat OSU, and exactly how LSU beat Ole Miss. Blake Sims will have to grow up if Bama will win this game, because he has to make the plays. Will he do that? I don't think a sudden maturity change is likely.
Auburn over Texas A&M, 38-17
A&M with Hill struggled because half of the time they dropped his passes and their defense is mediocre. Without Hill, what do you think is going to happen?
Kansas State over TCU, 28-27
The Bill Snyder Formula. Here is what Snyder has forced KState teams to do over the years, and all the good teams are all of these qualities:
1. Play Sound Defense
2. Don't commit penalties
3. Don't commit turnovers
4. Run the ball, manage the clock.
The more and better KState teams adhere to this, the better teams they have been historically. This KState team is no different. You remember when their defense was shutting down Auburn on a thursday night earlier this season? They don't commit penalties often (they had one run in, again against auburn), they don't turn the ball over (again, except against auburn), and they manage the clock consistently. I don't think they will completely shut down TCU's explosive offense, I DO think that they will keep TCU's offense in front of them enough to make several stops and force a couple of turnovers. They won't make mistakes, and will play their butts off. This is what Bill Snyder teams do. If you think that playing soundly won't be enough to beat TCU, just look at the Auburn game. A pass off their star recievers hands in the end zone that is intercepted, a dropped interception, a pair of other uncharacteristic turnovers that led to auburn points...these aren't things that just happen together because a team is bad, it just wasn't their night against auburn. The reality is, however, that they outplayed auburn. They should have beaten them, but made uncharacteristic mistakes that cost them the game. There is nothing to suggest that they would let that happen again, and if you suggest TCU will outplay KSU you are suggesting that TCU is a significantly better team than Auburn, which to me is absolutely silly. Bill Snyder's defense will shut down the big plays, and without those, TCU's offense won't be putting up nearly the point total. They will get some scores, but it just won't be enough.
Utah Over Oregon, 41-35
Oregon has a history of losing after beating Stanford, having "letdowns" on both sides of the ball, but that is not at all what this is about. This is the same sort of trap game that made ole miss succumb to LSU in death valley. Utah has a great offense, but there isin't much you can use to figure them out, as they have not played a lot of great games. They always seem to just play, and they go out there and dominate, but there hasn't been much strategy in their offense due to them not having to use it. They have plenty of things up their sleeve, but they have not opened up the playbook all year, and are due to pull out all the stops against a powerful oregon team. A win here would be amazing for Utah in terms of publicity, and they will do everything in their power to make it happen. Oregon's offense may get suprised, Utah's defense is FAST. Reminiscent of recent FSU defenses in regards to their speed, they close on everything in the same way the seahawks do in the NFL. The Utes will keep things in front of them, and then they will swarm like hawks. This upset relies on Oregon's offense getting a slight suprise by the Utes speed, because otherwise Utah may not be able to win a shootout against a mostly superior team. The Utes should outmaneuver the Ducks early on, and their fast defense will be enough to hold off the Oregon offense. Expect some trick plays and different looks from what the Utes have shown so far this season.
Notre Dame over Arizona State, 35-31
Notre dame plays up to their superior opponents and down to their inferior ones, plain and simple. They are a very good team that just doesn't always play 100%. In a really big game, Notre Dame will come through imo, they are thoroughly a great team due to Everett Golson and will go as far as he takes them in terms of offense. His dual threat ability makes him a great QB, and his arm talent is not lacking at all.
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Well so far you're 0-1 (baylor killed OU) with both Notre dame and Auburn down going into the 2nd half. Great start :3
Welcome to football in the South
so in your opinion what was the best game this week? for me it was bama vs lsu, but im a bit biased there. aside from that i did enjoy seeing T A&M take down auburn, but im also biased about that game. in other news, OSU is suddenly a threat once again. wonderful -_-
Top 4 teams right now are Alabama, Mississippi State, Oregon, and TCU. Florida State is extremely overrated. They've won every game by a hair and their best win is Clemson. Meanwhile, TCU is one meltdown against Baylor from being the #1 team in the nation. Really rooting for Florida State to lose before the playoffs to see a playoff between Alabama, Mississippi State, Oregon, and TCU. We'd get the best 3 conferences representing plus a second representative from the undisputed best conference in America. The ACC and B1G don't deserve a team in the playoff right now, and that's coming from a B1G fan. The conferences right now are SEC >>> Pac-12 >= Big 12 >>> ACC >= B1G, then the minor conferences. (>= means just a tiny bit better than)
xJownage
Even pendulums swing both ways
I think you are downplaying florida state severely.
In the past month I have said this more times than I can count: Florida state is built to beat teams, not dominate them like the rest of college football. FSU has been very good in playing as a team; they always have won playing complete games rather than putting up absurd point totals like the rest of the top teams. I also want to make some points about the noles opponents, many of whom are underrated because they havent beaten highly ranked foes. Okst is much better than we thought, clemson hasnt lost to an accurately represented squad, and notre dame would have beaten ASU if their recievers didnt decide to shit bricks.
The noles are built with a solid defense and a challenging offense. Jaemis Winstons inconsistency has shit all over this team, but he has always come up clutch. Their running game has been inconsistent, but really: they only win. Winning "impressively" is rarely a decent judgement of actual team skill in the real football world, but in college football its commonly correct. However, there are differences that tell you a team is good despite winning close games. One if those is perseverance. FSU struggles early in games because opponents have a bullseye on them as that one game on the schedule they really want. When the quick adrenaline wears off, FSU takes complete control and dominates their opponent, or catches up and wins in the closer games. People need to stop shitting on fsu when every week teams are pulling shit out of their ass against them, which wouldnt happen if fsu was playing more tested squads (meaning they would dip into their bag of tricks) even though those squads are likely decent.
In the past month I have said this more times than I can count: Florida state is built to beat teams, not dominate them like the rest of college football. FSU has been very good in playing as a team; they always have won playing complete games rather than putting up absurd point totals like the rest of the top teams. I also want to make some points about the noles opponents, many of whom are underrated because they havent beaten highly ranked foes. Okst is much better than we thought, clemson hasnt lost to an accurately represented squad, and notre dame would have beaten ASU if their recievers didnt decide to shit bricks.
The noles are built with a solid defense and a challenging offense. Jaemis Winstons inconsistency has shit all over this team, but he has always come up clutch. Their running game has been inconsistent, but really: they only win. Winning "impressively" is rarely a decent judgement of actual team skill in the real football world, but in college football its commonly correct. However, there are differences that tell you a team is good despite winning close games. One if those is perseverance. FSU struggles early in games because opponents have a bullseye on them as that one game on the schedule they really want. When the quick adrenaline wears off, FSU takes complete control and dominates their opponent, or catches up and wins in the closer games. People need to stop shitting on fsu when every week teams are pulling shit out of their ass against them, which wouldnt happen if fsu was playing more tested squads (meaning they would dip into their bag of tricks) even though those squads are likely decent.
Woah there, pal. I don't think the ACC is better than the B1G, and that's coming from someone who's favorite conference is the ACC. I agree that the B1G doesn't deserve a team in the playoff at the moment, but if things fall into place, I could see Ohio State sneaking in (sadly). Florida State may be overrated, but they're still undefeated and until they lose, they're keeping that top 4 spot. Also, next week I'm pretty sure Alabama plays Mississippi State next week, so good luck seeing both of them in a playoff spot, lol.
the order of teams that could make the playoffs:
1. 13-0 Mississippi St.
2. 13-0 FSU
3. One-loss SEC team (11-1 MSU or 12-1 Bama)
4-5. One-loss PAC-12 winner (12-1 Oregon or ASU)
4-5. One-loss Big 12 winner (11-1 TCU, or 11-1 Baylor if TCU loses)
6. 11-1 Baylor (if 2nd in Big 12)
7. 12-1 Big 10 winner (OSU or Nebraska)
8. 12-1 FSU
9. Two-loss SEC team (Winner of Iron Bowl, or if Ole Miss beats Miss. St.)
Barring shenanigans involving the SEC West, I don't see any other team making it. If we end up with 5 or 6 zero or one-loss conference winners, there might be some controversy over who makes the playoffs over who. Worst case, Bama beats MSU and wins out, and the voters choose to keep 12-1 Bama and 11-1 MSU in the top 4 over potential 11-1 TCU/Baylor, 12-1 OSU, and/or 12-1 FSU. That, or a two-loss SEC team gets the bump all the way to #4 when a couple other teams lose... still, four is better than two!
1. 13-0 Mississippi St.
2. 13-0 FSU
3. One-loss SEC team (11-1 MSU or 12-1 Bama)
4-5. One-loss PAC-12 winner (12-1 Oregon or ASU)
4-5. One-loss Big 12 winner (11-1 TCU, or 11-1 Baylor if TCU loses)
6. 11-1 Baylor (if 2nd in Big 12)
7. 12-1 Big 10 winner (OSU or Nebraska)
8. 12-1 FSU
9. Two-loss SEC team (Winner of Iron Bowl, or if Ole Miss beats Miss. St.)
Barring shenanigans involving the SEC West, I don't see any other team making it. If we end up with 5 or 6 zero or one-loss conference winners, there might be some controversy over who makes the playoffs over who. Worst case, Bama beats MSU and wins out, and the voters choose to keep 12-1 Bama and 11-1 MSU in the top 4 over potential 11-1 TCU/Baylor, 12-1 OSU, and/or 12-1 FSU. That, or a two-loss SEC team gets the bump all the way to #4 when a couple other teams lose... still, four is better than two!
The only way the SEC is getting two teams is if bama wins out and MISS ST doesn't lose any other games. This also means the west has to win the SEC championship, and bama isn't in the clear after MISS ST. Auburn is still there to greet them after a gimme game vs western carolina (a game I will be going to :D). Miss st would have to defeat ole miss, and it wouldn't hurt for some other 1 loss teams to get a number 2 in the column below the L. FSU's only real chances of losing are to miami (I'm scraping from the bottom of the barrel for that one) and a florida squad who managed to take down georgia. While this is a bit of a redemption game for florida, I don't see it happening (there is also duke probably in the ACC championship game, but again, probably not gonna happen). OSU could easily lose again by the end of the season, and the pac-12 teams don't have it much easier. That championship game is gonna be one for the ages, whoever ends up playing in it. Either way, it is very possible a team like Arizona st, Ohio st, baylor, or any other 1 loss team could sneak in. The cards have been known to fall in weirder ways.
As an OSU fan I've pretty much resigned myself to them not getting into the playoff. Their one loss is by far the worst loss on the board plus everyone's down on the B1G as a conference, they'll be lucky to break even top eight by the end of the season unless some ridiculous shit happens to almost everybody in front of them currently. A two-loss Bama will get in before they do, Miss St is getting in before them (unless they lose to Vanderbilt) possibly even if they lose to both Bama and Ole Miss... in which case the latter team also gets in before them. Auburn might still be ranked higher after this week, we'll have to see. One of Oregon/ASU will get in, one of TCU/Baylor, then of course there's FSU.
Or mostly what Killah said, except I think his #7 should probably move to the bottom of the list. But maybe I'm just overrating the Big Ten hate. I'm not a mind reader.
Or mostly what Killah said, except I think his #7 should probably move to the bottom of the list. But maybe I'm just overrating the Big Ten hate. I'm not a mind reader.
Miss st. plays Bama this weekend, so they can't both win out.
If Alabama wins, they jump to #2 and go to the SEC championship game vs a much weaker Mizzou/UGA given that they beat Auburn. Miss state, only having one loss, will drop no further than 3 or 4, so long as they don't get blown out. It is perfectly conceivable for a 12-1 Alabama and 11-1 Miss state to both make the top 4 over either 12-1 Oregon/ASU and 11-1 TCU (or Baylor).
If Bama loses, I don't see them having more than an outside shot at #4, though they do stand a pretty good chance at staying above a 12-1 Ohio State that could only have 2 quality wins by the end of the year.
I don't see a non-SEC champ 11-1 Mississippi State getting in, because their non-con schedule is absolute piss.
Miss st's non con schedule might suck, but so does most of the SEC west's. those teams don't play many big games outside of their own conference. Auburn vs Kansas State is one of the few exceptions
I really don't know what you're expecting. Almost every top football program in the country has two or three "gimme" home games, and maybe one good out of conference matchup. Bama and LSU opened the season against West Virginia and Wisconsin, Auburn played K-State. The only great team that has a fairly strong out of conference schedule is FSU, playing ND, a bad OK State, and Florida at the end of the year. Aside from ASU-ND and Oregon-MSU, there haven't been any other huge out of conference games.
90% of the good teams in the southeast are in the SEC (Clemson and FSU being the exceptions), and good teams generally don't like to travel a long distance to play other good teams. This isn't a knock specifically on any conference or the SEC specifically, they are all guilty of this. You make more money scheduling two home games against cupcakes than you do doing a home and home against a team halfway across the country that you stand a good chance at losing to, and since a single loss can derail a season in college football, schools are hesitant to schedule tough games. There are plenty of exceptions, sure, but a LOT of big schools are guilty of avoiding tough out of conference opponents for whatever reason. The fact that games seemingly have to be planned out 8 years in advance also make it much easier to schedule division 2 teams.
90% of the good teams in the southeast are in the SEC (Clemson and FSU being the exceptions), and good teams generally don't like to travel a long distance to play other good teams. This isn't a knock specifically on any conference or the SEC specifically, they are all guilty of this. You make more money scheduling two home games against cupcakes than you do doing a home and home against a team halfway across the country that you stand a good chance at losing to, and since a single loss can derail a season in college football, schools are hesitant to schedule tough games. There are plenty of exceptions, sure, but a LOT of big schools are guilty of avoiding tough out of conference opponents for whatever reason. The fact that games seemingly have to be planned out 8 years in advance also make it much easier to schedule division 2 teams.
I can't imagine a world where teams like Texas and USC are bad football teams :^)
Alabama just won in one of the toughest stadiums in the country and their one loss was by 6 to a great Mississippi team while Oregon was shut down at home to Arizona. Yet Oregon is #2 and Alabama is 5. Top 4 right now should be Mississippi State, Fla. St. (by default, I still don't think they're great), Alabama, Oregon. TCU should be a close fifth.
I don't get why Utah is still in the top 25 or what the hell Minnesota is doing there. Minnesota has played one good team and got slaughtered by them and also lost to Illinois. Meanwhile Marshall has at least gone undefeated; pretty disrespectful to see them not ranked.
I don't get why Utah is still in the top 25 or what the hell Minnesota is doing there. Minnesota has played one good team and got slaughtered by them and also lost to Illinois. Meanwhile Marshall has at least gone undefeated; pretty disrespectful to see them not ranked.