np: ORAS OU Suspect Process, Round 2 - Spider Man [Metagrossite remains OU]

[Roxachronic]

If we aply that logic to every mon capable of running HP(sorry Magikarp) then every special offensive mon is never going to have a counter to switch in.(Of course this is not exactly true, but you get the point.)

I could say Suicune would not be countered by Ferro because it will carry HP Fire, or that Magnezone cannot check it because it will be running HP Ground.

In practice this is just not worth it.

EDIT:Lets be realistic, this mon is not and will never be Greninja, it could run almost any 4 moves because it had STAB on everyone of them, Megagross will almost always be running Zen Headbutt/Meteor Mash/Hammer Arm and another 4th move(Agility/Grass Knot/EQ/etc.) in practice.

 

[RichieTheGarchomp]

You guys sound like pseudo-intellectuals rn.

But that isnt the point. The point is is that we all know MMeta is in a whole new ballpark. Nothing goes to its power level. Not even Goku.

How will it affect the Ubers metagame? I dont know. Its definetly gonna be atleast B+, though.

Its just that the thing is so powerful (Base 150 attack+free LO boost to contact moves is huge) that the power creep it has is overwhelming. Its stronger than some banded pokemon. Thats how bad it is.

 

[SupremeDirt]

How will it affect the Ubers metagame? I dont know. Its definetly gonna be atleast B+, though.

It's actually currently listed at C+.



The way I personally see it, Mega Metagross holds a lot of things in check, much like Aegislash did, however UNLIKE Aegislash, you aren't really playing a guessing game with Mega Meta - it WILL be a physical attacker. Yes it's incredibly strong, yes it'll likely cause a lot of shifts in the meta, but it's not outright broken, it can be checked and there are defensive mons that counter it. It's not Mega Blaziken where it's nigh impossible to revenge. It doesn't create 50-50 situations that losing result in most of the tier simply being ohko'd like Mega Mawile did. It doesn't create the oppressive pressure on teambuilding that Mega Gengar and Greninja did. It lacks U-Turn, any form of boosting outside of Autotomize, and its only real usable special attack is Grass Knot.

Yeah, sure it breaks down walls. That's what a wallbreaker is supposed to do. Yet it can't cover every defensive mon on the same set, and can be revenged by offensive teams. It's not on some ridiculous 120+ speed tier. It has Hammer Arm as its only real fighting coverage, which leaves it open to being revenged.

It's definitely one of the largest threats in the metagame but it's far from broken, especially as it simply can't safely come in on the majority of the metagame.

 

[Vinc608]

I'm repeating what Tele thought, but i think it is very important.
After laddering a little, i saw that Diancie-Mega is a huge threat and it is overcentralizing. Bulky Offense is very good atm. Stall with Sableye-Mega will become rare, Hyper Offense will lose a Mega of choice and a switch-in to Latios and Fairies. Balanced will have only 1 counter against Diancie-Mega without CM : Clefable.
NO BAN

 

[Imperator Romanum]

I'll keep this short and sweet.

Mega Meta is on the cusp of uber material. It's not flat out broken because it does have counters and switch-in's. Also, it can't reliably boost its attack.
However, my problem with metagross is that Scarf Heatran is the only thing (non mega) that can reliably OHKO Mega Meta from full health (stealth rock not included). Folks, not even fully invested adamant Lando-T can reliably OHKO Meta. With 12 Def investment, Life Orb Adamant Bisharp Sucker Punch doesn't even OHKO. Life Orb Excadrill can do the job, but it requires sand.

So in short, this thing has a built in focus sash.

That's what breaks it for me. There is literally nothing unboosted that says "GUARANTEED OHKO" against Mega-Metagross.

We're all competitive battlers here, so I don't need to go over why having a Focus Sash is so clutch.

Charizard Y
Charizard X
Mega Garchomp
Mamoswine
Talonflame
Tyranitar(mega)
Landrous-I
Crawdaunt
Diggersby
Volcarona
Chandelure
Entei
Darmanitan
Arcanine
Excadrill
Honchkrow
Krookodile
Hydreigon
Nidoking
Rotom-H
Mega Swampert
Victini

Probably more Megas that I'm forgetting

 

[DarkNostalgia]

If bronzong is running earthquake, then it can beat mega metagross, kinda.
This is the best possible scenario, hasty on a grass knot set:
4 Atk Bronzong Earthquake vs. 0 HP / 0- Def Mega Metagross: 102-122 (33.8 - 40.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
It can kinda work, but who would keep in their megagross for 3 turns while doing nothing??

I'm sorry, but no megagross runs hasty.
252 Atk Tough Claws Mega Metagross Hammer Arm vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Bronzong: 139-164 (41.1 - 48.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
4 Atk Bronzong Earthquake vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Mega Metagross: 92-110 (30.4 - 36.4%) -- 55.3% chance to 3HKO

You still outspeed even after 3 hammer arms (-3 speed) so gross actually wins.

 

[yuruuu]

I really dislike the "don't use the set of champions" line of thinking. For Greninja, it is like "Greninja doesn't have 4MSS because it can choose its moves to fit the team." How is this any different from Mega Metagross? It can choose between Grass Knot, Ice Punch, Earthquake, Hammer Arm, or any variation thereof to fit its team. It's a ridiculous double standard.

Also, the "forces you to use unviable things to counter" is kind of ridiculous too. That's known as meta shift. Counter Skarmory isn't even that bad of an option normally (stops Excadrill and whatnot). Unless you are using like Float Stone Slowbro (which is just dumb considering the existence of Slowking), it is hard to say Mega Metagross is forcing you to run unviable Pokemon.

Just my 2c.

 

[DarkNostalgia]

Arcanine, bulky Victini, Doublade, Slowking (who before was outclassed by slowbro since bro countered more things) was ranked higher on the oras viability rankings due to gross... isn't this an example of overcentralising?

 

[Imperator Romanum]

The set of champions is a viable argument for metagross because it functions as a cleaner. You build a team around Metagross for it to sweep. Greninja, however is glue. You put the moves needed for your team on him, thus no moves are a must on Greninja. Howeve Metagross needs its duel stab, it also needs a way to handle steels. Because of this there's only one free slot on Metagross, while it doesn't matter what's on Greninja.

I'm making a massive post later, so look out for that.

 

[Grim]

I don't see Metagross as a cleaner, more of a Pokemon that can break balance, do work against offense, do work against stall, and potentially clean up late-game. I think Greninja comes closer to a cleaner than Metagross does, with its higher Speed stat while having great coverage and all STAB. Metagross can definitely be a glue as well, because its massive movepool (not on the same level as Greninja but still very big) allows it to cover what the rest of your team cannot. If your team has solid switch-ins for Rotom-W but problems with Gliscor then I see no reason not to replace Zen Headbutt with Ice Punch, for example. The only moves Mega Metagross definitely wants are Meteor Mash (main STAB) and a move to hit Steel-types with, which is either Hammer Arm or Earthquake. Not as flexible as Greninja, but Mega Metagross definitely has room for whatever your team needs.

 

[Albacore]

Since when is Metagross something you necessarily build around? I mean I guess you can build around the Agility set, but on most teams, MMetagross is first and foremost an offensive glue. It is neither a cleaner, nor a sweeper, nor even a wallbreaker as some people have claimed, it is primarily a Pokemon which can switch into a powerful hit and force the user of said hit out while dealing a solid amount of damage to the switchin, much like Azumarill or Conkeldurr. What put MMetagross at a completely different level than these two is that it, alongside being the epitome of a bulky offensive threat, a) has enough speed to outpace most offensive threats and b) is difficult to counter. The fact that MMetagross has enough raw power to be able to pass as a wallbreaker, enough speed to act as a decent cleaner, and access to Agility which enables it to pull of a sweep is honestly pretty ridiculous, this is exactly the kind of compression of roles which makes something Uber material.

About the HP Fire thing, the difference between Metagross and any other Pokemon is that Metagross is centralising to the point where many teams will pretty much have to use Scizor to counter it. And if this becomes a huge trend, MMetagross can afford to run HP Fire to deal with it. This is exactly what happened with Mandibuzz and Life Orb/Head Smash Aegislash, Heatran and Veanusaur and SubPunch/Iron Head Mawile, and would probably have happened with Tentacruel and ESensory Greninja had we not banned it before it could catch on. When a Pokemon is difficult to handle to the point where adapting to it forces you into a corner, it is very easy for said Pokemon to adapt in return.

 

[Alfalfa]

You guys sound like pseudo-intellectuals rn.

But that isnt the point. The point is is that we all know MMeta is in a whole new ballpark. Nothing goes to its power level. Not even Goku.

How will it affect the Ubers metagame? I dont know. Its definetly gonna be atleast B+, though.

Its just that the thing is so powerful (Base 150 attack+free LO boost to contact moves is huge) that the power creep it has is overwhelming. Its stronger than some banded pokemon. Thats how bad it is.

We do not care how Mega Metagross will fare in Ubers; this has no influence on whether or not we want to ban it from OU. Regular Deoxys was deemed too powerful for the OU metagame, yet it does very little in Ubers due to being almost completely outclassed by Deoxys-Attack. In a similar vein, if Mega Metagross turns out to be complete garbage in Ubers, we do not care, because what could be complete garbage in the Ubers metagame could be too powerful or overwhelming for the OU metagame.

 

[Master B8s]

Yeah this very true, and I'm not saying you're wrong it does make fairies pretty meh, but that still doesn't make them completely unviable 5 fairies are currently A - A+ on the viability ranking thread, which speaks for itself, clefable is still very very good just not against mega metagross. Which is completely logical.

Many pokemon were less viable with Aegislash because it could be slapped on a team and bam, you've covered half the tier. Metagross isn't as splashable in a sense that it's a mega, which i hate using this as an argument but opprrtunity cost. Yes it could arguably be the best mega in OU right now, but I may feel like using mega diance or mega charizard X. If I want to use another mega, that already means I can't use mega gross. Yes I agree with you that fairies are still very viable, but whenever I used a clefable and my opponent had metagross on their team, I could never set up or had to make sure i didn't give it a free switch because giving a free switch to this monster is the last thing you want to do.

 

[QueenOfHax]

Many pokemon were less viable with Aegislash because it could be slapped on a team and bam, you've covered half the tier.

In practice this isn't true. The pokemon that were significantly improved by Aegislash's ban were Mega Gardevoir, Mega Heracross and Mega Medicham, however all three of them have became much worse with ORAS (M-Gardy a bit less) because of the faster-paced metagame and new megas who either beat or outclass them.
We still have only two really viable ghost types in OU (Sableye and Gengar), random fire and ground moves are still everywhere and the competition for the coveted mega slot is still as fierce as ever, regardless of spooky swords needing to be checked. In the end Aegislash didn't warp the metagame around itself nearly as much as a lot of people say, and in fact I'm beginning to question if "overcentralization" could be listed as a pro-ban argument at all, since we have Landorus-T who is extremely common yet it doesn't really affect teambuilding (it's not like Electric types carry HP Ice just for that, for example), is an all-around great pokemon but it has its limits and most of us would agree that it's not broken.

 

[TM13IceBeam]

I don't really get what is the whole "zomg fairies brek meta" thing that people have been saying will happen once Metagrossite gets the boot, if it does. If that really does happen, then our next logical course of action is to suspect the things that are causing the issue, whether it be Clefable or Diancite or Altarianite (note that it doesn't necessarily mean either one of them* are broken, just throwing in some examples) or whoever the fuck it is.

Metagross isn't more of a "splash onto every team" Pokemon, the issue here is the insane power + bulk it brings to the table, and to me those are traits worthy of a mega slot. If you're using another mega, then that's fine too. The problem is how Metagross pretty much constrains team building due to the combination of his positive traits, which outshines the negative traits that he has (Intimidate-susceptible post-mega, somewhat inaccurate moves, bad speed before mega). Basically, if Metagross gets a free turn (it pretty much will though because it shits on like a good portion of the tier) then the player facing down Mega Metagross would be at an inherent disadvantage due to having to contend with his combination of power, bulk and speed. Not many in OU are capable of punishing an opponent this badly for giving it a free turn, and it could be anything (say a slow volt switch on Clefable into Metagross or something).

*fuck diancite tho

(On a Ubers note, Metagross faces competition for its Mega slot by Mega Salamence, who is an otherwise much more deadly sweeper with higher attack, speed while still roughly retaining the same level of bulk, as well as Dragon Dance. It's kind of like Deoxys-N, where it's outclassed forever by Deoxys-A. This isn't Ubers tho so yeah)

 

[bludz]

I originally made a post defending the "Metagross' adaptability" point of view but deleted it because I'm not so sure how many "suboptimal" sets Metagross would actually end up being effective. In theory it could run good lure sets to destroy many of its checks and counters. However I don't see enough evidence to give this argument real credibility. I don't think it's insane to think such a thing could happen -- I think it's plausible -- but the effectiveness of such sets cannot be determined by theorizing (see: comparing it to Aegislash). Either we deem it OU and new sets do or do not become effective (we can take a second look if they do), or we decide it's too much for OU and ban it before we ever find out. I don't really think there's much need to get hung up on the possible viability of HP Fire when there are already strong, non-theoretical arguments as to why Metagross should go even with some variants of Mega Scizor countering it.

Either way -- back to the "why didn't we let the meta settle?" question which this sort of came from -- I don't think this suspect test was rushed. There was no need to let the metagame settle in much further; it was already clear that Metagross needed to be looked at.

Also the comparisons to the older suspects are getting really bad. Comparing Metagross to Aegislash and other former suspects is creating a lot of arguments which have a convenient pro-ban spin and are fallacious for multiple reasons but mainly because they assume Metagross is broken/overcentralizing/unhealthy instead of proving it. I am starting to lean pro-ban I think (which may seem strange considering the nature of this post), but these most recent arguments about Metagross' ability to adapt with HP Fire and such are not things we have seen in practice. You can make a great argument, but a new set must be proven to work before it needs to be taken seriously. Until then, Metagross' current sets are probably already enough to get it banned so it's my opinion that we should stick to discussing those.

 

[silver97]

just a note on hp fire metagross, i tried it a bit some time ago and imo is not really worth it, it has difficulties at 2HKOing mega zor and you put that at the cost of losing significant coverage, but most importantly you have to put that 30 ivs in speed that is quite huge for all the speed ties it makes you lose especially with gengar and diancie, but also latios or gallade. however if we come at a point where megazor is on every team to counter metagross, it would be easy to adapt and start running hp fire

 

[Froppe]

First of all, the metagame will actually become less healthy because a plethora of threats that it checks will become prevalent, and metagross isn't even broken. Numerous Pokemon from the top thirty in the usage stats can check metagross such as; choice band Talonflame, basically any Lando-t variant if meta isn't running ice punch and the scarf variant checks metagross anyways, defensive Rotom-W is a very shaky check that can cripple and/or beat metagross baring hax, and many others. Metagross also has a speed tier that isn't too obnoxious, and it can be checked. If it wants to use a boosting set to take out scarfed Lando-t with ice punch or Talonflame, then it has to sacrifice coverage. By choosing its set, metagross chooses what it is countered by. Metagross has huge 4MSS as a result. (Greninja didn't have 4MSS because the mixed set gave it the coverage it needed anyways) If it uses an agiligross set with dual STABs and earthquake, then Slowbro, Skarmory and Scizor are complete stops to it, but if it uses the standard set Skarmory, Scizor and Victini can stop it. (note that i didn't say all the counters for each set) It is true that Metagross has very few true counters, but there are numerous Pokemon in the meta that are already top 20-30 in usage that can check metagross. You can usually assume the Metagross set based on what team it has around it and when it is used on that specific team. If your opponent uses a metagross on a hyperoffensive team on turn 5, then it is safe to assume that it isn't an agiligross set. Personally I think that metagross isn't broken or overcentralyzing like other threats, but a good counter argument could convince me the other way around.

Edit: Added some more "meat" to the argument.

Please, no. "First of all, the metagame will actually become less healthy because a plethora of threats that it checks will become prevalent, and metagross isn't even broken." If future Pokemon deserves to be suspected, they WILL get suspected. The domino theory does not, and should not be applied to Pokemon. We'll get to them should they prove suspect worthy -- but right now, we are looking at Megagross, Megagross' effect on the metagame, and Megagross only.

A suspect test is run in the first place, to test a metagame without Megagross running around.

The OU metagame does not need a necessary evil.

 

[Celticpride]

I'm repeating what Tele thought, but i think it is very important.
After laddering a little, i saw that Diancie-Mega is a huge threat and it is overcentralizing. Bulky Offense is very good atm. Stall with Sableye-Mega will become rare, Hyper Offense will lose a Mega of choice and a switch-in to Latios and Fairies. Balanced will have only 1 counter against Diancie-Mega without CM : Clefable.
NO BAN

Balanced has more answers to Diancie than Clefable. Scizor with Roost checks any non-HP Fire variant (rare becuase Rock Polish is the best set for it), as does Ferrothorn. Mega Venu also hard checks it outside of Psyshock, which is also pretty rare. Mega Slowbro and SDef Gliscor are also good, common options. Balanced is fairly well prepared for Diancie imo.

 

[trillyntruly]

i'm shocked as to how much opposition there is to this ban. megagross's coverage is ridiculous in-and-of itself, and it allows it to muscle past many would-be checks/counters. a solid portion of its counters are less-than-viable turds and a hefty chunk of its checks are shaky. on top of that the majority of the meta doesn't wanna switch in on him because he practically 2hko's the entire tier. combine his ability to wallbreak with his insane speed tier AND his defensive typing/insane bulk and the answer to me becomes obvious. let's not forget that he has access to priority and all of his stabs are boosted by tough claws, without the downsides that zard-x had (like losing health on his hardest hitting fire stab and being locked in on a move mons are immune to on his hardest hitting dragon stab, his moves that had no downsides had significantly less upsides than megagross's).

oh and of course there's the fact that the secondary affects on his primary stabs allow him to muscle past threats he really shouldn't be able to by netting previously impossible 2hko's by flinching/getting attack boost on switch.

this thing can run almost any coverage type it needs and has access to supporting moves that can help it even more like sub, agility, PuP.

the thing is real dumb and i'll vote ban personally

 

[HomoAPM]

Finally got 2700 and voting for the first time, without a solid opinion yet. In one hand I have the idea that megagross it's a fantastic check of stuff like M-Diancie that normally gives me troubles, also, megagross hits really hard with both STABs and 1 or 2 moves for coverage, but in the other I think he isn't as powerful as other previous bans, like Genesect or perma-STAB Greninja. I've personally had countered him really well with strong bulky waters, Mandibuzz and stuff like that and also 110 speed tier, as good as it is, isn't the faster in the meta by far. I must keep thinking about it.

PD: Sorry for my english, I'm Spanish and new in the forum, but not in PS (Elijah_Mikaelson).

 

[Baharoth]

I can understand why some people think Mega Gross is banworthy, on paper he certainly is. In practise however its another thing imo. He is still realy good in practise no doubt, but not banworty good imo.

What many people mention here all the time about 2hkoing the whole meta and lacking save counters and switchins is true but it rarely works that way in practise for several reasons.

Yes he can 2hko everything, but only with perfect prediction. Things like Rotom-w, Ferro (just 2 examples of the top of my head, there are many more) etc can all be 2hkoed on the switch, but only if predicted correctly. If they switch into another move Meta cant 2hko anymore and is forced out/has more trouble dealing with them. This problem is enhanced by the fact that Metagross has so many possible switch ins, bulky waters, bulky steels, Lando-T, Garchomp, Gliscor, Mandibuzz there are so many mons out there that can switch into 3 of his moves without getting 2hkoed that you will usually find 2 or even 3 possible switch ins to Metagross on a well built team. Yes there is some risk involved here, and yes the risk is bigger for player facing Mega Gross but that can be said for most mons.

Another issue related to that is his coverage. Meteormash, while powerful, has awful coverage and isnt realy spammable. Most of the time Zen Headbut is the best option to spam but thats resisted by many things as well. And if you go for that and a resist, like some steeltype comes in, you will miss out on the 2hko in many cases.

The point is while it might look difficult to switch something into Metagross in theory, i never found it that hard in practise.

His bulk is certainly amazing for an offensive thread but with so many things running ground/fire moves for coverage alot of things have SE moves to heavily damage him. This adds to the prediction problem mentioned earlier. Its not even about the switch in, if you got your Meta in against Clef against a team with Rotom-w and Heatran, what move do you pick? Go for Mash and the other two can come in for free. Go for Zen and Heatran can come in and force you out or Clef stays in and uses Flamethrower (not quite sure but doesnt full def Clefable even live one meteor mash?). Metas bulk certainly helps to compensate that to an degree but from my experience its rare for him coming in more than 2 or 3 times until he is worn down to the point where he cant do much any more. At least against non stall teams.

The number of all set counters is realy small but the number of checks that can switch into 2 or more of his attacks without beeing 2hkoed is huge.

And the people mentioning how +1 from mash can win games should also mention how missing with all those 90% can lose you games. Especially considering that Mash isnt a good move to spam with so many things resisting it.

 

[Mix]

Uhm, i saw this meta without metagross, and I noticed a rise of Mega-Diancie and Scizor. Mega-Diancie obviously has a rise because without this spider he has much chances to statup or simply to win the match. It's a circle, since mega-diancie is much used, scizor is the new check for it; he can stop all of the diancie's moves and when is the moment he can close the game because with mega-diancie also the Hyper Offense has a rise, so when scizor statup can win with bpunch spam.
Anyway in this metagame we have too many threaths so, one less can only help. People ask why the council ban metagross and sableye, lol
Come on sableye can be easily stopped with clefable,altaria and stuff and now with the metagross suspect we not see him again because now his real counter come back, mega diancie stop all of sableye's moves, magic bounce fuck will-o-wisp, dark pulse can't do much against a fairy and moonblast destroy sableye tough he did a cmind, see this calc

252 SpA Mega Diancie Moonblast vs. +1 252 HP / 252+ SpD Mega Sableye: 158-188 (51.9 - 61.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO [and come on, who used max sdef calm sableye ?]
252 SpA Mega Diancie Moonblast vs. +2 252 HP / 0 SpD Mega Sableye: 162-192 (53.2 - 63.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO


Last thing, this the most used Diancie set in this suspect ( lol maybe is the only viable)

Diancie @ Diancite
Ability: Clear Body
EVs: 4 Atk / 252 SpA / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
- Moonblast
- Protect
- Diamond Storm
- Earth Power

 

[Burt Racecar]

Yes he can 2hko everything, but only with perfect prediction.

However, even without perfect prediction it is capable of dealing considerable damage to its switch ins.
Furthermore, because of its bulk and speed, it really limits those that can come in and force it out. Only things like Scarfed mons that can get a OHKO him, and possibly Rocky Helmet Ferrothorn's chip damage, still very few others.
It's really set dependent as well, talking about the toss up between Grass Knot and Ice Punch here; your bulky water might go down to grass knot, but you just can't tell through team preview.

So, in my opinion, Mega-Metagross is capable of wearing teams down with incredible ease. It has solid switch ins to individual sets, BUT there are no solid switch ins for Mega-Metagross universally.

 

[silver97]

I can understand why some people think Mega Gross is banworthy, on paper he certainly is. In practise however its another thing imo. He is still realy good in practise no doubt, but not banworty good imo.

What many people mention here all the time about 2hkoing the whole meta and lacking save counters and switchins is true but it rarely works that way in practise for several reasons.

Yes he can 2hko everything, but only with perfect prediction. Things like Rotom-w, Ferro (just 2 examples of the top of my head, there are many more) etc can all be 2hkoed on the switch, but only if predicted correctly. If they switch into another move Meta cant 2hko anymore and is forced out/has more trouble dealing with them. This problem is enhanced by the fact that Metagross has so many possible switch ins, bulky waters, bulky steels, Lando-T, Garchomp, Gliscor, Mandibuzz there are so many mons out there that can switch into 3 of his moves without getting 2hkoed that you will usually find 2 or even 3 possible switch ins to Metagross on a well built team. Yes there is some risk involved here, and yes the risk is bigger for player facing Mega Gross but that can be said for most mons.

Another issue related to that is his coverage. Meteormash, while powerful, has awful coverage and isnt realy spammable. Most of the time Zen Headbut is the best option to spam but thats resisted by many things as well. And if you go for that and a resist, like some steeltype comes in, you will miss out on the 2hko in many cases.

The point is while it might look difficult to switch something into Metagross in theory, i never found it that hard in practise.

His bulk is certainly amazing for an offensive thread but with so many things running ground/fire moves for coverage alot of things have SE moves to heavily damage him. This adds to the prediction problem mentioned earlier. Its not even about the switch in, if you got your Meta in against Clef against a team with Rotom-w and Heatran, what move do you pick? Go for Mash and the other two can come in for free. Go for Zen and Heatran can come in and force you out or Clef stays in and uses Flamethrower (not quite sure but doesnt full def Clefable even live one meteor mash?). Metas bulk certainly helps to compensate that to an degree but from my experience its rare for him coming in more than 2 or 3 times until he is worn down to the point where he cant do much any more. At least against non stall teams.

The number of all set counters is realy small but the number of checks that can switch into 2 or more of his attacks without beeing 2hkoed is huge.

And the people mentioning how +1 from mash can win games should also mention how missing with all those 90% can lose you games. Especially considering that Mash isnt a good move to spam with so many things resisting it.

it's not that you have to perfectly predict every time the opponent brings in a pokemon, the issue is that if your main switch-in to metagross can possibly be 2HKOed by a combination of move you'll find yourself in trouble. Those "so many mons that can switch in" are not actually so many because many can just switch on it once or at best twice before being in range of a KO, others are smacked by the right coverage move and some others need to be perfectly healthy to eat up hits from metagross. You don't have to 2HKO everything with perfect prediction every time, you can just force an insane amount of switches to freely fire off STABs or other coverage moves to seriously hurt its checks and at some point they'll be too weak to take another hit. Also balance and stall can have dedicated answers to this, but what about offense? of course offense can keep up pressure to limitate the free turns it generates but at the same time if it gets one of those free turns he basically gets a kill or severely hurts the opposing mon.