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NOC Fire and Ice Mafia: Fire and Ice tie, the village loses.
- Thread starter The Diabolic Gift
- Start date
- Status
I mean idk it seems like you sort of said a lot of things I had already more or less said about DLE so we agree on that I guess? Interesting points about Pokeguy+DLE though I still think it's more likely that Pokeguy is town based on his reactions; this, however, is admittedly a pure gut read as his play could go either way.
U-Turn Out is an interesting scumread but he is posting a fair bit and seems at least invested in what happens. Then again at this point maybe someone being invested is more of a sign of being mafia X_X
I agree with a Da Letter El lynch honestly, though I'm also down for an acidphoenix/U-Turn Out lynch. I've pretty much had these three as my scummiest since I called out DLE (remember U-Turn was Walrein at that point), though I think of the three U-Turn is the worst lynch because, again, at least he is posting.
Unvote
Vote Da Letter El
Show signs of life DLE and start contributing; I know you aren't AFK in general and this weird lurking thing you're doing is not like you if you're NOC town.
Nothing else really jumped out at me from your posts jumpluff or I'd have commented on it, not saying I agree with everything but I think it's more or less reasonable. The only thing that bothers me is that your reads seem a little too close to my own for my liking but I guess my reads have sort of become the 'bog standard' reads given I have like 30% of the posts this day or something dumb like that.
Outside of that thank you jumpluff for posting and for giving me a break from having to constantly prod this roadkill of a mafia game to see if it shows any signs of life.
List of people I'd prefer lynched currently: DLE/Acidphoenix
List of people I'm OK with lynching: U-Turn Out/Pokeguy/Celever
List of people I think would be poor lynches and which I will not get behind: Yeti/jumpluff/UltrasPlot
jumpluff's posts read very town to me, in that mafiapluff tends to not produce much content while villagepluff tends to produce a LOT. That being said I'm hoping that pluff's reads evolve after a bit more reading time to hopefully give more insight into my own (it's hard to really refine my own reads if pluff is posting basically the same ones).
U-Turn Out is an interesting scumread but he is posting a fair bit and seems at least invested in what happens. Then again at this point maybe someone being invested is more of a sign of being mafia X_X
I agree with a Da Letter El lynch honestly, though I'm also down for an acidphoenix/U-Turn Out lynch. I've pretty much had these three as my scummiest since I called out DLE (remember U-Turn was Walrein at that point), though I think of the three U-Turn is the worst lynch because, again, at least he is posting.
Unvote
Vote Da Letter El
Show signs of life DLE and start contributing; I know you aren't AFK in general and this weird lurking thing you're doing is not like you if you're NOC town.
Nothing else really jumped out at me from your posts jumpluff or I'd have commented on it, not saying I agree with everything but I think it's more or less reasonable. The only thing that bothers me is that your reads seem a little too close to my own for my liking but I guess my reads have sort of become the 'bog standard' reads given I have like 30% of the posts this day or something dumb like that.
Outside of that thank you jumpluff for posting and for giving me a break from having to constantly prod this roadkill of a mafia game to see if it shows any signs of life.
List of people I'd prefer lynched currently: DLE/Acidphoenix
List of people I'm OK with lynching: U-Turn Out/Pokeguy/Celever
List of people I think would be poor lynches and which I will not get behind: Yeti/jumpluff/UltrasPlot
jumpluff's posts read very town to me, in that mafiapluff tends to not produce much content while villagepluff tends to produce a LOT. That being said I'm hoping that pluff's reads evolve after a bit more reading time to hopefully give more insight into my own (it's hard to really refine my own reads if pluff is posting basically the same ones).
As for the above, if acidphoenix is town then from my perspective it becomes very likely that the mafia are smarter than I've been giving them credit for (BOTH mafias) and that at least one of Yeti/U-Turn Out is mafia while DLE is on the other. Honestly I think it's highly probable that at least one of DLE/Yeti is mafia in any case, and I'm leaning strongly towards DLE currently, as Yeti has pretty much dropped nothing but towntells lately.
At that point though, unless acidphoenix were godkilled, I'm not sure that the flip in and of itself would be that helpful in comparison to what would be two mafia kills that basically decide the game most likely. I don't feel there's a ton of scumtell evidence in this thread against anyone outside of the inactive/newer players, and as we've already seen from HD and Gale those aren't really evidence one way or the other (this is also the reason I'm really hesitant to lynch Pokeguy).
At that point though, unless acidphoenix were godkilled, I'm not sure that the flip in and of itself would be that helpful in comparison to what would be two mafia kills that basically decide the game most likely. I don't feel there's a ton of scumtell evidence in this thread against anyone outside of the inactive/newer players, and as we've already seen from HD and Gale those aren't really evidence one way or the other (this is also the reason I'm really hesitant to lynch Pokeguy).
on acidphoenix and UncleSam
I only want to lynch U-Turn Out purely because of how Walrein played. Walrein's reads posts literally attacked people for being ambivalent as a sign of scumminess then made a total of about two definitive conclusions on anyone. Like I said though I think there is merit to keeping U-Turn Out, Celever, PokeguyNXB when he gets subbed in the game. I do not think there is merit to keeping either acidphoenix or Da Letter El in the game unless DLE provides a convincing response to the lynch. But I am more hesitant about acidphoenix than I am DLE. Or rather a better way of phrasing that would be that I am more confident about DLE because I have played with DLE before, and I am concerned about the fact that literally everyone wants to wipe their hands of acidphoenix. In all fairness if I were acidphoenix's partner I would probably be happy enough to bus him at this point, simply because, and IMO for any experienced player they would also feel this way, I would look at how acidphoenix is playing and deem it unsalvageable. BUT if I were acidphoenix's partner, I'd rather lynch someone I'm sure is town (maybe also a member of the other mafia) than have acidphoenix lynched.
I don't agree that my reads are too close to yours in a way that is unnatural (simply because of process of elimination), although I do not really want to be in some round table of agreement right now because I think it asphyxiates the game. I am not even really sure where I stand on you being town or scum; the only real reason I can think for you to play this way if you are scum is perfectionism/wanting the damn game over with, unless you have vastly overestimated the strength of the opposition against you. If you're scum I don't think anything would change except how I felt about acidphoenix, because you have this remarkable talent for interacting with people to the point it's actually almost obfuscatory, not that that's your fault since half of this game is Soraka Bot. What concerns me mostly is the real substantial (I'm comparing and contrasting this to the weak shit like UltrasPlot posted) opposition to you has generally come from people who are pretty clearly town or who have since flipped, with the exception of ButteredToast (who was being completely logical). None of those players are particularly experienced and plenty of them are using fucking awful logic, which sucks because you are perfectly equipped to respond to that. Most of them are being defensive. But the real problem with that is then: where are the scum? Agreeing with you because what you are doing suits them, or inactive as shit.
My general reads, maybe? I approached my reads from inverse logic to yours. My actual mafia compositions are actually the closest to acidphoenix's, who answered the question you posed about scumteams almost identically to how I answered. I'm not sure how to feel about that. To me that suggests I am probably onto something about who is town if acidphoenix is scum. acidphoenix's reads have fluctuated in meaningless ways, essentially remaining constant and not reacting to information, which is a function of inactivity but also an indicator in itself he isn't scumhunting but rather pushing an angle (even if it's only to try to get the heat off himself onto people he finds threatening). He scumread Spiffy for attacking you doggedly in the same post as he scumread you for being defensive. Then he moderated his read on you while explaining
UltrasPlot and THE IRON KENYAN
Then again I guess a thing I would like to know from Sam is why he then ranks UltrasPlot with Yeti (the consensus town) and me (I'm the best, also it's historically true that my scumtell is evasiveness). UltrasPlot is new, but his contributions haven't been sound or useful at all compared to e.g. U-Turn Out's, who Sam is fsr okay with lynching. I am absolutely not okay with lynching U-Turn Out right now despite everything I see from Walrein being alarming (which I will elaborate upon probably after my nap or when DLE posts, idk, I do not want DLE to avoid this line of interrogation) because we have superior targets. There's an attempt to participate from UltrasPlot, with some very good line of thoughts such as his response to Celever here, but is there a real attempt to actually engage or find scum the way U-Turn Out seems to be doing? It's like playing with a less cocky TIK.
But it is quite curious. Yelled about US bandwagoning at the same time as endorsing Gale's US wagon, attempted to lynch US while questioning the case against Haunted Diamond and calling out Celever on his evasiveness (with good logic, at least fmpov since I've never seen Haunted Diamond play either, but terribly hypocritical logic from his own pov, link here http://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/fire-ice-day-2.3543996/page-14#post-6330242), then gleefully began pushing the Haunted Diamond wagon as a matter of consensus. This to me suggests a blend-in playstyle. He followed through on his (rather ominously foreshadowing) comment from Day 1 that we should examine Sam and Celever for the Haunted Diamond mislynch by demanding they explain themselves, then completely failed to follow through while also being responsible for repeatedly advocating getting the wagon over and done with.
And here I am defending Sam and Celever from bad logic, zzz. Does make me wonder if Sam is buddying UltrasPlot or just straight up trying to protect him (from Cancerous/me and U-turn Out and Celever, that's a non-vocal but persistent lynchbase), which I can see as a safe manoeuvre purely because UltrasPlot is so dogmatically on the offensive against Sam. I don't really like the set of users that is attacking UltrasPlot, but I really, really don't like the set of users that is defending him.
Celever
I have to admit I don't give a shit about what you and Celever do in your spare time, but I cannot get a good handle on what Celever is doing and I want Celever to comment on my posts and the lynch, and perhaps reiterate his stances for me because they seem more established in defensiveness and aggression rather than an integrated scenario of the team structure. I do find the relationship between acidphoenix and Celever fascinating. But it is pretty much like all of acidphoenix's relationships and all of Celever's relationships, I think probably perhaps because Celever is attempting to imitate UncleSam. So, I really do want to know what Celever would think if Sam or acidphoenix flipped scum.
FYI Celever I will go through your posts tomorrow so you should probably at least respond.
Lynch
I do not want a lynch btw, I want this game extended and PokeguyNXB subbed out as he has repeatedly requested The Diabolic Gift. We have both UltrasPlot and PokeguyNXB MIA, and that is a substantial proportion of the playerbase, and I am not at all happy with the reasoning everyone used for deciding TIK was town ('townslip' when actually TIK is just inattentive in general) . I think both of those players are in positions where any interactions with them will yield tons of information, which is great since they're not interacting with anyone. I also want Da Letter El to meaningfully respond to me. So, I'm not voting, because I do not want people adding votes to this lynch yet.
I only want to lynch U-Turn Out purely because of how Walrein played. Walrein's reads posts literally attacked people for being ambivalent as a sign of scumminess then made a total of about two definitive conclusions on anyone. Like I said though I think there is merit to keeping U-Turn Out, Celever, PokeguyNXB when he gets subbed in the game. I do not think there is merit to keeping either acidphoenix or Da Letter El in the game unless DLE provides a convincing response to the lynch. But I am more hesitant about acidphoenix than I am DLE. Or rather a better way of phrasing that would be that I am more confident about DLE because I have played with DLE before, and I am concerned about the fact that literally everyone wants to wipe their hands of acidphoenix. In all fairness if I were acidphoenix's partner I would probably be happy enough to bus him at this point, simply because, and IMO for any experienced player they would also feel this way, I would look at how acidphoenix is playing and deem it unsalvageable. BUT if I were acidphoenix's partner, I'd rather lynch someone I'm sure is town (maybe also a member of the other mafia) than have acidphoenix lynched.
I don't agree that my reads are too close to yours in a way that is unnatural (simply because of process of elimination), although I do not really want to be in some round table of agreement right now because I think it asphyxiates the game. I am not even really sure where I stand on you being town or scum; the only real reason I can think for you to play this way if you are scum is perfectionism/wanting the damn game over with, unless you have vastly overestimated the strength of the opposition against you. If you're scum I don't think anything would change except how I felt about acidphoenix, because you have this remarkable talent for interacting with people to the point it's actually almost obfuscatory, not that that's your fault since half of this game is Soraka Bot. What concerns me mostly is the real substantial (I'm comparing and contrasting this to the weak shit like UltrasPlot posted) opposition to you has generally come from people who are pretty clearly town or who have since flipped, with the exception of ButteredToast (who was being completely logical). None of those players are particularly experienced and plenty of them are using fucking awful logic, which sucks because you are perfectly equipped to respond to that. Most of them are being defensive. But the real problem with that is then: where are the scum? Agreeing with you because what you are doing suits them, or inactive as shit.
My general reads, maybe? I approached my reads from inverse logic to yours. My actual mafia compositions are actually the closest to acidphoenix's, who answered the question you posed about scumteams almost identically to how I answered. I'm not sure how to feel about that. To me that suggests I am probably onto something about who is town if acidphoenix is scum. acidphoenix's reads have fluctuated in meaningless ways, essentially remaining constant and not reacting to information, which is a function of inactivity but also an indicator in itself he isn't scumhunting but rather pushing an angle (even if it's only to try to get the heat off himself onto people he finds threatening). He scumread Spiffy for attacking you doggedly in the same post as he scumread you for being defensive. Then he moderated his read on you while explaining
I would interpret this inversely, I think it is bizarre how everyone concluded TIK was town off such thin reasoning and it is more worrying on Day 1 when everyone has a consensus. I am not sure if acidphoenix has the experiences I do to really think that way, but consensus lynches on Day 1 are almost always disastrous because of the lack of information and a very easy way for scum to hide. I feel more positively towards Sam probably because he has actually not, as characterised, been solely on the defensive but instead has substantiated contrary positions towards people who were generally being ignored.
UltrasPlot and THE IRON KENYAN
Then again I guess a thing I would like to know from Sam is why he then ranks UltrasPlot with Yeti (the consensus town) and me (I'm the best, also it's historically true that my scumtell is evasiveness). UltrasPlot is new, but his contributions haven't been sound or useful at all compared to e.g. U-Turn Out's, who Sam is fsr okay with lynching. I am absolutely not okay with lynching U-Turn Out right now despite everything I see from Walrein being alarming (which I will elaborate upon probably after my nap or when DLE posts, idk, I do not want DLE to avoid this line of interrogation) because we have superior targets. There's an attempt to participate from UltrasPlot, with some very good line of thoughts such as his response to Celever here, but is there a real attempt to actually engage or find scum the way U-Turn Out seems to be doing? It's like playing with a less cocky TIK.
But it is quite curious. Yelled about US bandwagoning at the same time as endorsing Gale's US wagon, attempted to lynch US while questioning the case against Haunted Diamond and calling out Celever on his evasiveness (with good logic, at least fmpov since I've never seen Haunted Diamond play either, but terribly hypocritical logic from his own pov, link here http://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/fire-ice-day-2.3543996/page-14#post-6330242), then gleefully began pushing the Haunted Diamond wagon as a matter of consensus. This to me suggests a blend-in playstyle. He followed through on his (rather ominously foreshadowing) comment from Day 1 that we should examine Sam and Celever for the Haunted Diamond mislynch by demanding they explain themselves, then completely failed to follow through while also being responsible for repeatedly advocating getting the wagon over and done with.
Also from Haunted Diamond. Spectacularly questionable set of scumreads. Logic? The ButteredToast kill was performed by people who are blending in as village (I would love to see that substantiated, by the way! Come back, UltrasPlot!). So he names the two guys he's been relentlessly pursuing as scum and whom have a reasonable lynch case against them (with Celever, the strongest of all of them, as iffy?), Cancerous who was considered a weaktown by everyone (and who is now me and so obviously I think that's a dumb suggestion but ftpov...), Yeti who was consensus town, and Walrein who I can see behind the ButteredToast kill (or at least allowing it) tbh. But then suggesting to lynch from these five is quite a strong position for something very unsubstantiated, especially since thats a terrible set of users to lynch from IMO.
And here I am defending Sam and Celever from bad logic, zzz. Does make me wonder if Sam is buddying UltrasPlot or just straight up trying to protect him (from Cancerous/me and U-turn Out and Celever, that's a non-vocal but persistent lynchbase), which I can see as a safe manoeuvre purely because UltrasPlot is so dogmatically on the offensive against Sam. I don't really like the set of users that is attacking UltrasPlot, but I really, really don't like the set of users that is defending him.
Celever
I have to admit I don't give a shit about what you and Celever do in your spare time, but I cannot get a good handle on what Celever is doing and I want Celever to comment on my posts and the lynch, and perhaps reiterate his stances for me because they seem more established in defensiveness and aggression rather than an integrated scenario of the team structure. I do find the relationship between acidphoenix and Celever fascinating. But it is pretty much like all of acidphoenix's relationships and all of Celever's relationships, I think probably perhaps because Celever is attempting to imitate UncleSam. So, I really do want to know what Celever would think if Sam or acidphoenix flipped scum.
FYI Celever I will go through your posts tomorrow so you should probably at least respond.
Lynch
I do not want a lynch btw, I want this game extended and PokeguyNXB subbed out as he has repeatedly requested The Diabolic Gift. We have both UltrasPlot and PokeguyNXB MIA, and that is a substantial proportion of the playerbase, and I am not at all happy with the reasoning everyone used for deciding TIK was town ('townslip' when actually TIK is just inattentive in general) . I think both of those players are in positions where any interactions with them will yield tons of information, which is great since they're not interacting with anyone. I also want Da Letter El to meaningfully respond to me. So, I'm not voting, because I do not want people adding votes to this lynch yet.
jumpluff I thought direction of the town for the day seemed fine without my being active; the lynch in almost every world today is on one of my 4 top scum reads in Celever/U-Turn/acidphoenix, with only you/cancerous being the only scum read not really being that up for the table and was much more of a strong gut read than a concrete one off of Cancerous' play. U Turn just added more reason for him to be lynched with his recent flip flop onto me when he viewed that as a viable alternative from your and Sam's discussion. Your hesitation to lynch him for doing so despite your own misgivings about his posting is weird.
This is my first time playing a game with purposely trying to focus more on making quick posts, but that just ended with me being more disinterested in the game than normal and then annoyed when i feel like i need to give reads on 8 pages worth of shit and feel like i have to tl;dr anyway. Mafia's less fun when you aren't burying kids. Maybe I should have made my posts where I outline my reads more aggressively pushing people instead of floating the reads out there hoping they get read and understood more easily that way. they've been ignored despite being pretty short probably because no one's going to push my reads but me.
my early TIK town read was not based off nothing. it is based off 1. his aggression 2. his personal "certainness" of being town 3. his active attempt to find mafia early in the game 4. His consistency in his reads 5. his being alone. I don't happen to think TIK is all that good at lying. As such I felt his pressure and frustration of how certain players were playing to be out of authentic town frustration, as I think TIK wouldn't really care that much if his reads as a mafian weren't really trusted. Why would they, he's mafia? Given TIK has a hard time giving a shit about anything, the fact he gave a shit about people thinking he is wrong during the day gives massive town vibes. UltrasPlot has continued to be trying to find mafia in a largely solo campaign against UncleSam and his reads come from an honest place of consistent belief. If UltrasPlot is ever lynched I will be incredibly annoyed. I've always been way better at townreading than scumreading and I'm confident enough to put my life behind this dude being town.
I think my thoughts on the game are fairly clear: Celever for weird early pressure feeling from a forced perspective and some fairly weird slips that seem to similarly come from a mafia perspective, Cancerous mostly off gut on his reaction to my post and to his reaction to being called out kind of largely dismissing it (note Walrein does literally the exact same thing. so I guess now this is pluff? Your avoidance of pushing a scum read on Walrein/U Turn fits into your own admitted mafia paradigm of avoidance but most of your content seems pro-town thus far barring your interactions there) and Uturn for Walrein's lack of honest beliefs and the aforementioned "eh i'm not actually scummy now lemme ignore it and try to make it look natural", then acidphoenix for his refusal to actively scumhunt would be a stronger 4th if he actually gave me more to work with rounds out the 4 mafia. We did it boys we found em pack it up.
I'd love a U Turn flip; if he's mafia it makes me think jumpluff is the strongest likelihood of being their partner. If he flips town then I think a Celever/Sam team jumps up in likelihood as if I'm not actively mafia reading any scum -- which the case would be if U Turn flips town -- while I don't think sam is inherently the scummiest he's the easiest to fit onto a team with someone who I do think is scummy.
I think acid town flip tells me almost nothing besides gives a slight scum tell on sam, as I think mafia!Sam in this position tries to lynch someone he feels moderately confident is mafia that seems palatable to people and has the added benefit of making Sam/Celever world more likely. I don't think acidphoenix really associated himself with anyone that I've noticed besides maybe Walrein/U Turn in pushing the two teams he did (Celever/Sam and me/pokeguy), so I guess it just adds some fuel to the U Turn fire if he's lynched but he's given me nothing to work with besides his not townreading himself in his first reads post in the way of slips or associations. And I don't think acid strong scumreads or strong townreads his partner so I think an acid scumflip makes Celever look better for largely ruling out one team he could be with. That's about all I think we get there.
jumpluff was there something more specific you wanted me to respond to?
This is my first time playing a game with purposely trying to focus more on making quick posts, but that just ended with me being more disinterested in the game than normal and then annoyed when i feel like i need to give reads on 8 pages worth of shit and feel like i have to tl;dr anyway. Mafia's less fun when you aren't burying kids. Maybe I should have made my posts where I outline my reads more aggressively pushing people instead of floating the reads out there hoping they get read and understood more easily that way. they've been ignored despite being pretty short probably because no one's going to push my reads but me.
my early TIK town read was not based off nothing. it is based off 1. his aggression 2. his personal "certainness" of being town 3. his active attempt to find mafia early in the game 4. His consistency in his reads 5. his being alone. I don't happen to think TIK is all that good at lying. As such I felt his pressure and frustration of how certain players were playing to be out of authentic town frustration, as I think TIK wouldn't really care that much if his reads as a mafian weren't really trusted. Why would they, he's mafia? Given TIK has a hard time giving a shit about anything, the fact he gave a shit about people thinking he is wrong during the day gives massive town vibes. UltrasPlot has continued to be trying to find mafia in a largely solo campaign against UncleSam and his reads come from an honest place of consistent belief. If UltrasPlot is ever lynched I will be incredibly annoyed. I've always been way better at townreading than scumreading and I'm confident enough to put my life behind this dude being town.
I think my thoughts on the game are fairly clear: Celever for weird early pressure feeling from a forced perspective and some fairly weird slips that seem to similarly come from a mafia perspective, Cancerous mostly off gut on his reaction to my post and to his reaction to being called out kind of largely dismissing it (note Walrein does literally the exact same thing. so I guess now this is pluff? Your avoidance of pushing a scum read on Walrein/U Turn fits into your own admitted mafia paradigm of avoidance but most of your content seems pro-town thus far barring your interactions there) and Uturn for Walrein's lack of honest beliefs and the aforementioned "eh i'm not actually scummy now lemme ignore it and try to make it look natural", then acidphoenix for his refusal to actively scumhunt would be a stronger 4th if he actually gave me more to work with rounds out the 4 mafia. We did it boys we found em pack it up.
I'd love a U Turn flip; if he's mafia it makes me think jumpluff is the strongest likelihood of being their partner. If he flips town then I think a Celever/Sam team jumps up in likelihood as if I'm not actively mafia reading any scum -- which the case would be if U Turn flips town -- while I don't think sam is inherently the scummiest he's the easiest to fit onto a team with someone who I do think is scummy.
I think acid town flip tells me almost nothing besides gives a slight scum tell on sam, as I think mafia!Sam in this position tries to lynch someone he feels moderately confident is mafia that seems palatable to people and has the added benefit of making Sam/Celever world more likely. I don't think acidphoenix really associated himself with anyone that I've noticed besides maybe Walrein/U Turn in pushing the two teams he did (Celever/Sam and me/pokeguy), so I guess it just adds some fuel to the U Turn fire if he's lynched but he's given me nothing to work with besides his not townreading himself in his first reads post in the way of slips or associations. And I don't think acid strong scumreads or strong townreads his partner so I think an acid scumflip makes Celever look better for largely ruling out one team he could be with. That's about all I think we get there.
jumpluff was there something more specific you wanted me to respond to?
hmmm actually after thinking about teams I don't think the world is pluff/uturn and acid/celever; acid+celever makes no sense
I'll sort this out in the morning
I'll sort this out in the morning
What, is the fourth person you suspect yourself? Cause that's the fourth person most other people are gunning for as scum, lol. I find it interesting you think all the suspicion onto you is 'fine' while also having so much suspicion about Sam and Celever. Do you actually think two people you have scumreads on pushing the direction of the town is fine? The third, before pluff came in and blessed us with more conversation, being myself.
On what grounds? Do you see much of a connection, or bizarre absence of, between Cancerous and Walrein? I can't say I note much reason they would be partners.
I am going to find Sam very suspicious if he advocates for an acidphoenix lynch and he flips town. After my views that he and Haunted Diamond were noobtown playing shadily (in different ways than Gale, but the same way as each other), I would just feel like UncleSam having pushed a lynch on both, and mislynched both times, is simply mafia!Sam gunning for mislynches on people who cannot defend themselves. I've already speculated this is what happened with HD and if it happens again this guy is going to move to suspect #1.
This game is honestly really hard to tell if there are 0, 1 or 2 scums hiding in the enigmas that are acidphoenix and PokeguyNXB. Are they playing poorly because they are noobs with little time to read the thread in detail or are they scumtelling? Ultrasplot subbed in for TIK who was hard-townread early in the game (I think?) but TIK's posts did almost seem, scripted? In how aggressive and assertive they were. I think this may be a wolf in sheep's clothing.
There are five villagers and four scums, so if acidphoenix and PokeguyNXB are both town, I only have two other players to pick from to be my other two townspeople. So I mean, without knowing how either has flipped yet, it's very difficult to determine if I have two 'experienced' players on my side, three, or even four. Trust nobody and all that.
I feel like jumpluff is playing pretty town right now. They came in and began reading posts and actually gave some reads and incited discussion. I think this is much, much closer to how pluff plays Resistance as Blue, specifically Merlin. Spy-pluff is often quieter and Res-pluff is pretty vocal about leading and determining missions. Of course, like Sam, I would much prefer that active, loud and intelligent players are on my team because I want to be able to townread them and trust their reads instead of having to fight them and prove them scum. But from how pluff jumped into the game, I see town play. Taking into consideration how Cancerous would post a few funny things that magically garnered a lot of town reads then go mia for a while (sort of what happened with TIK as well), I am not giving a strong-townread yet.
PokeguyNXB, we like playing OC mafia with you. You always seem to send in your actions. But your disdain for being 'plain town' this game when you knew most of the game was vanilla and time restrictions just don't make for a good NOC experience, for you or the rest of us. I am sure you'd love to be more active, yet you also have a hundred excuses for why you can't participate. No good at scumhunting, bad reads, doing what we want will somehow make us think you are scummy, answering our questions will make you look bad, limited time to be on, difficulty getting enough time to write a post and give reads, the list goes on... it makes you look horribly like a lazy, nooby mafian. And if you are town, it's a disservice to yourself and us as well. So join the next OC mafia and have a good time there!
Who suggested me as one of the five people to lynch from, Ultrasplot? What an awful suggestion, unless you believe I am pulling the wool over literally everyone since pretty much the entire game reads me as town. And CELEVER is the iffy one? If anything that seems more like Celever is his partner and he knows he has to be somewhat suspicious in case Celever flips but also doesn't want us to push for him too much. And why the flip isn't DLE on that list of otherwise-experienced players?
Man I wish we had more to go off from Gale. Due to appearing so scummy/weird he may have had some interesting reads, but I think the logic trains he hopped on are ultimately too convoluted and distanced from reality to ride ourselves.
I feel like a Celever lynch would be pretty safe, because he is active and playing but like... numerically I just can't believe that all the active people are town and I think Celever is the kind of guy who would have such heavy activity whether he's town or scum, and I have more reasons to suspect him atm than Sam.
Da Letter El
I stated over and over again I didn't want to pursue the U-turn Out lynch today because I felt we had superior targets, namely you and possibly acidphoenix. I understand your inference because I feel similarly about Sam shifting the lynch from you back onto acidphoenix originally. But I think my reasoning is valid, because I have two people I am almost certain are mafia and one person I believe is more dangerous and also less useful in a state of non-contribution. U-turn Out has just subbed in and may give us some more information to go off yet. A flip on you would be absolutely fantastic. At this stage we can't lynch for shits and giggles so I'd rather lynch the person I feel is the safest to lynch and on all counts to me that is you.
I do however think your attempt to paint me as U-turn Out's partner is excessively contrived, because I also stated over and over again that I found their previous iterations (Walrein and Hannahh) remarkably scummy. The only thing I have protected U-turn Out from is today's lynch because I would rather lynch you. So I disagree that that is weird.
1. First post, made before anyone had even contacted me in the game, criticised Walrein's play as shady but couldn't progress further because of no sub info and needed the elaboration on his strong town read on you.
2. Second post, suggested Walrein as one of two options for ButteredToast's killer.
3. Third post (ignoring the two for metacommentary) after receiving sub information, declared a straight up scum read on U-turn Out, criticised their read on you (interesting that Walrein and U-turn Out both stuck to their guns about you being a townie)
4. Fifth post discusses clearly again why I do not translate that scum read into a direct lynch and promises further analysis of Walrein and U-turn Out after DLE posts, because I do not like the interactions DLE and Walrein have had and want to keep that analysis up my sleeve until DLE posts (and since he has posted it I will post it after this since I'm doing it while I write, enjoy my refusal to do my chemistry homework).
The reason I specifically asked about acidphoenix is because I was still curious about US's moving of pressure lynches between DLE and acidphoenix and hesitance to commit to straight up just lynching one. As I stated before, if I were acidphoenix's partner, I would lynch him proactively right now, but I would be equally happy to postpone the lynch if I can get a mislynch in first. This is ostensibly valid reasoning to reinforce the idea that I am U-turn Out's partner, and I am aware of that, but I have refused to hedge my bets about them ever, simply prioritised and emphasised in the immediate my primary concern with DLE. Sam and Celever are a weird pair that everybody is so sure are conjoined but I don't know if I buy that for various reasons. As such I feel those are the users the most information is yielded on by acidphoenix's death, with the exception of Yeti who hadn't made her post at the time I asked (because she'd need a tachyonic antitelephone to do it). I think I got a useful answer out of it because I agree that if Sam goes for the hypothetical mislynch on acidphoenix today, Celever is likelier to be his partner. I mean, mathematically, obviously, but yeah.
I agree that TIK is not a good liar and he is also not good at feigning interest. But I dispute the claim made by those supporting UltrasPlot so aggressively that TIK's posts demonstrated any kind of commitment to playing. Sudden reckless plays, bravado, and disdain for other players are all part of TIK's general repertoire, so I don't find it to be a strong towntell, just the >2 posts made before subbing out. Admittedly I don't know TIK as well as you do so maybe there is some nuance there for you where TIK's comments towards the town at large don't just generally reflect TIK's cockiness. But above all, in a game where it is almost impossible to parse people based on their plays alone, I think the TIK/UltrasPlot hybrid makes a terrible consensus town, unlike Yeti whose posts have been constructive and interrogative while matching her general safe but vocal town playstyle. People seemed to think TIK was speaking truth to power or something and lazily townread him. I don't know if TIK would stay in if he was scum there, since I don't remember why he subbed out.
I agree as well that UltrasPlot is new, but I don't think he is necessarily town so much as enthusiastic, if he has paid any attention to this game at all he would have seen this is vital, putting in a modicum of effort. I'll do a post-by-post analysis if you want! I had no problem with his initial posts, and thought they contained some rather astute observations and an organic attempt to formulate a position. However he suddenly pulled back from the Haunted Diamond lynch and then pinpointed two users (UncleSam and Celever) as the culprits should Haunted Diamond flip mafia in the same process as aggressively and singlemindedly pushing the lynch on him as a matter of consensus, explicitly citing Sam as the person who had convinced him. In the second day all he has done is make one follow up post (of about four words) reiterating that point while not even acknowledging own lynch participation and then posting a few anti-Sam posts here and there. Why is this alarming? Zero reaction to the new information (Spiffy and ButteredToast are town), zero revision of stances accordingly, then disengagement and under the radar play. I admit I am not 100% sure on the TIK/UltrasPlot read after reviewing people's posts about them and going through UltrasPlot's, but I do not like this mischaracterisation of them and the way they have somehow evaded all suspicion based on almost no merit.
I don't want to lynch UltrasPlot, but I would like people to at least comment on the point I am making.
Anyway, I wouldn't expect DLE to react rashly to being called out, but I don't find his post really convincing not to lynch him. And I think his post was pretty solid when he was commenting on everyone literally not me/Cancerous. And I find that interesting because I sense a subtle defensiveness that pushes his suspicion of me, a less likely to be lynched player, onto U-turn Out, the second likeliest player to be lynched not including himself (the other one is acidphoenix). It is basically a diametric PoV argument though because I have repeatedly identifed DLE and Walrein's relationship as problematic.
tl;dr everything DLE posted was reasonable enough except everything about U-turn Out's flip and my refusal to lynch U-turn Out, which was a) incomprehensible bullshit b) understandable bullshit
Other notes:
After going through Walrein's posts I see he also suggested the PokeguyNXB/DLE and acidphoenix/Celever team setup (I suggested it with Walrein as an alternative to Celever, and this theory with UncleSam over acidphoenix has been floated by like four users or something I have retroactively discovered: Gale Wing Srock and acidphoenix proposed US over acidphoenix, and Yeti proposed DLE/Gale and Pokeguy/acidphoenix/Celever). Now that's a weird one, I am very curious about the relationship between Walrein and acidphoenix after discovering this. Anyway, the mainly interesting thing there is that so many people found PokeguyNXB/DLE such a plausible team in the total absence of a relationship between them (which initiated my own suspicion). I think most of these propositions come from the place of fitting the two scummy players together and needing to find an experienced player to pair PokeguyNXB with. I am not remotely confident about my proposed permutation and will try to think it through some more to see if fitting other players into it makes something more apparent.
I seem to be at odds with the majority of the game in that I do not think the mafia in this game is completely stupid, just disengaged (which is another reason for me to poke at Walrein and Da Letter El), and while that is not mutually exclusive I think it's a good guess since there are more disengaged players in the game than stupid ones. Only has to be one smart and engaged player on a team to ensure the kill goes where it should. I think Spiffy was a fantastic kill as I wrote before, and I have only become surer of this as I have gone through the thread more times, because the new users seemed to implicitly think Spiffy was good. I think DLE's only reason to not want him to dead is to prevent him from flipping; that mislynch absolutely not would have happened unless UncleSam and Yeti are both also scum, and Walrein also existed and would, if scum, not want that Spiffy flip. So the two most likely candidates for killing him actually have good reasoning in my opinion. Of course, this is an infinite point of contention as I explicitly reject DLE's denial he would have killed Spiffy on the basis that he could have mislynched Spiffy for free, especially while people like Gale Wings Srock were still around (not only to get aggro on DLE but also to draw aggro on themselves). Of course, it is entirely possible his team killed ButteredToast and Walrein killed Spiffy. Either version is plausible to me.
I do not think the ButteredToast kill was terrible so much as it was likely misguided. Rather than being advanced WIFOM tactics I think it was an attempt to deny information while pulling off a guaranteed kill. If I were mafia would I have gone for someone like UncleSam or Yeti or even Da Letter El? Hell no, they are viable protect targets and/or possible intelligent enemy scum. I think it was suboptimal because I would've killed UltrasPlot/TIK myself and he would've satisfied that criteria just as nicely since everyone had him as a townread based on flimsy rationale. Celever, Gale, etc. were all drawing lots of suspicion onto themselves and would've made for easy hypothetical mislynches D2. We know at least one of those users was town!
Yeti raises a really good point about DLE as well but I don't recall any aggression from DLE onto Sam except implicitly in his remark about UltrasPlot, which I construed as neutral. Finally, DLE did at least claim to have switched up his playstyle experimentally or something, so that's kind of a defensive acknowledgment of Sam's and my comments about his uncharacteristic play (and I have seen lazy DLE before, I don't think it looks like this).
Agreed with the comment on Sam and acid flipping which is something to keep in mind as a potential motive for him jumping back on DLE (nah, there is no possible win scenario for you here, Sam, literally everything you do has to be scrutinised). However I am calm enough at the moment about Sam's contributions to today and disagree that Sam was the sole and main vessel behind the Haunted Diamond mislynch. I think that was like three users tbh and strongly consider the possibility that scum were happy to hide behind Sam's aggression to get a D1wagon.
Cancerous point is reasonable but I have literally nothing to say to it because I don't even remember what the guy posted, but I have commented that this was a problem with TIK as well that should be held against UltrasPlot. I don't think it merits much comment because I am providing enough content on my own initiative that conclusions can be drawn from the reasoning in my contributions and I am not particularly worried about being mislynched today.
Also agreed on PokeguyNXB should continue to play OC mafia, I distinctly remember there have been games where all the good players went idle and PokeguyNXB still bothered to submit actions. You've been around ages, we like you. NOC mafia isn't for everyone, a lot of people find it demanding and stressful as townie and/or scum (I fucking hate playing it as scum, and the Avalon analogue here is actually pretty relevant as I had at one point something between a 1/3-1/2 win rate as Spy and a well over 1/2 win rate as Resistance, god bless.) IDR if I ever have lost as scum in NOC but everyone on Smogon was atrocious at NOC then. Anyway my point is that just that you should really try and show some initiative because while you can be misjudged for that, you will always, always be judged for not showing initiative because it's actively detrimental to both yourself and your team. And I think the posts you did make in this game where you attempted to engage with the game were promising enough. So yeah I really feel bad if me jumping in on you made you guiltier.
Gale had very interesting and confident reads imo, PokeguyNXB town, UltrasPlot town (although I think the logic here was a travesty because it seemed to be based off that whole let the newbies lynch thing), absolute obsession with US and Celever as mafia, DLE > HD as the superior D1 scum lynch from the PoV both were scum (again terrible logic but confident read on DLE), seems to have a built in IQ scanner. Here's the updated reads post if anyone wants to review it: http://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/fire-ice-day-2.3543996/page-19#post-6337130 A lot of it is nonsensical IMO but I'd love to hear otherwise. And I don't think the logic being bad invalidates the conclusions X) I suppose the point I want up for discussion by posting that link is:
I know this post is really long sorry 'bout it, its how I roll and I'm tired and don't have time to prune it, so I am just going to emphasise with formatting my important points.
I stated over and over again I didn't want to pursue the U-turn Out lynch today because I felt we had superior targets, namely you and possibly acidphoenix. I understand your inference because I feel similarly about Sam shifting the lynch from you back onto acidphoenix originally. But I think my reasoning is valid, because I have two people I am almost certain are mafia and one person I believe is more dangerous and also less useful in a state of non-contribution. U-turn Out has just subbed in and may give us some more information to go off yet. A flip on you would be absolutely fantastic. At this stage we can't lynch for shits and giggles so I'd rather lynch the person I feel is the safest to lynch and on all counts to me that is you.
I do however think your attempt to paint me as U-turn Out's partner is excessively contrived, because I also stated over and over again that I found their previous iterations (Walrein and Hannahh) remarkably scummy. The only thing I have protected U-turn Out from is today's lynch because I would rather lynch you. So I disagree that that is weird.
1. First post, made before anyone had even contacted me in the game, criticised Walrein's play as shady but couldn't progress further because of no sub info and needed the elaboration on his strong town read on you.
2. Second post, suggested Walrein as one of two options for ButteredToast's killer.
3. Third post (ignoring the two for metacommentary) after receiving sub information, declared a straight up scum read on U-turn Out, criticised their read on you (interesting that Walrein and U-turn Out both stuck to their guns about you being a townie)
4. Fifth post discusses clearly again why I do not translate that scum read into a direct lynch and promises further analysis of Walrein and U-turn Out after DLE posts, because I do not like the interactions DLE and Walrein have had and want to keep that analysis up my sleeve until DLE posts (and since he has posted it I will post it after this since I'm doing it while I write, enjoy my refusal to do my chemistry homework).
The reason I specifically asked about acidphoenix is because I was still curious about US's moving of pressure lynches between DLE and acidphoenix and hesitance to commit to straight up just lynching one. As I stated before, if I were acidphoenix's partner, I would lynch him proactively right now, but I would be equally happy to postpone the lynch if I can get a mislynch in first. This is ostensibly valid reasoning to reinforce the idea that I am U-turn Out's partner, and I am aware of that, but I have refused to hedge my bets about them ever, simply prioritised and emphasised in the immediate my primary concern with DLE. Sam and Celever are a weird pair that everybody is so sure are conjoined but I don't know if I buy that for various reasons. As such I feel those are the users the most information is yielded on by acidphoenix's death, with the exception of Yeti who hadn't made her post at the time I asked (because she'd need a tachyonic antitelephone to do it). I think I got a useful answer out of it because I agree that if Sam goes for the hypothetical mislynch on acidphoenix today, Celever is likelier to be his partner. I mean, mathematically, obviously, but yeah.
I agree that TIK is not a good liar and he is also not good at feigning interest. But I dispute the claim made by those supporting UltrasPlot so aggressively that TIK's posts demonstrated any kind of commitment to playing. Sudden reckless plays, bravado, and disdain for other players are all part of TIK's general repertoire, so I don't find it to be a strong towntell, just the >2 posts made before subbing out. Admittedly I don't know TIK as well as you do so maybe there is some nuance there for you where TIK's comments towards the town at large don't just generally reflect TIK's cockiness. But above all, in a game where it is almost impossible to parse people based on their plays alone, I think the TIK/UltrasPlot hybrid makes a terrible consensus town, unlike Yeti whose posts have been constructive and interrogative while matching her general safe but vocal town playstyle. People seemed to think TIK was speaking truth to power or something and lazily townread him. I don't know if TIK would stay in if he was scum there, since I don't remember why he subbed out.
I agree as well that UltrasPlot is new, but I don't think he is necessarily town so much as enthusiastic, if he has paid any attention to this game at all he would have seen this is vital, putting in a modicum of effort. I'll do a post-by-post analysis if you want! I had no problem with his initial posts, and thought they contained some rather astute observations and an organic attempt to formulate a position. However he suddenly pulled back from the Haunted Diamond lynch and then pinpointed two users (UncleSam and Celever) as the culprits should Haunted Diamond flip mafia in the same process as aggressively and singlemindedly pushing the lynch on him as a matter of consensus, explicitly citing Sam as the person who had convinced him. In the second day all he has done is make one follow up post (of about four words) reiterating that point while not even acknowledging own lynch participation and then posting a few anti-Sam posts here and there. Why is this alarming? Zero reaction to the new information (Spiffy and ButteredToast are town), zero revision of stances accordingly, then disengagement and under the radar play. I admit I am not 100% sure on the TIK/UltrasPlot read after reviewing people's posts about them and going through UltrasPlot's, but I do not like this mischaracterisation of them and the way they have somehow evaded all suspicion based on almost no merit.
I don't want to lynch UltrasPlot, but I would like people to at least comment on the point I am making.
Anyway, I wouldn't expect DLE to react rashly to being called out, but I don't find his post really convincing not to lynch him. And I think his post was pretty solid when he was commenting on everyone literally not me/Cancerous. And I find that interesting because I sense a subtle defensiveness that pushes his suspicion of me, a less likely to be lynched player, onto U-turn Out, the second likeliest player to be lynched not including himself (the other one is acidphoenix). It is basically a diametric PoV argument though because I have repeatedly identifed DLE and Walrein's relationship as problematic.
This however is a fascinating argument and I am intensely curious about it (all scumreads out the window if U-turn Out flips town). This is in the same post as he scumreads Celever based on Celever's own play. And I entirely disagree with the argument itself! Walrein's biggest scumreads in this post are acidphoenix/Celever/PokeguyNXB. If U-turn Out is problematic due to Walrein's lack of honest beliefs, yet flips town, then are Walrein's beliefs not worth re-examination in light of any revelation they are honest? The only other user Walrein ever expressed any interest in lynching was Haunted Diamond.
tl;dr everything DLE posted was reasonable enough except everything about U-turn Out's flip and my refusal to lynch U-turn Out, which was a) incomprehensible bullshit b) understandable bullshit
Other notes:
After going through Walrein's posts I see he also suggested the PokeguyNXB/DLE and acidphoenix/Celever team setup (I suggested it with Walrein as an alternative to Celever, and this theory with UncleSam over acidphoenix has been floated by like four users or something I have retroactively discovered: Gale Wing Srock and acidphoenix proposed US over acidphoenix, and Yeti proposed DLE/Gale and Pokeguy/acidphoenix/Celever). Now that's a weird one, I am very curious about the relationship between Walrein and acidphoenix after discovering this. Anyway, the mainly interesting thing there is that so many people found PokeguyNXB/DLE such a plausible team in the total absence of a relationship between them (which initiated my own suspicion). I think most of these propositions come from the place of fitting the two scummy players together and needing to find an experienced player to pair PokeguyNXB with. I am not remotely confident about my proposed permutation and will try to think it through some more to see if fitting other players into it makes something more apparent.
I seem to be at odds with the majority of the game in that I do not think the mafia in this game is completely stupid, just disengaged (which is another reason for me to poke at Walrein and Da Letter El), and while that is not mutually exclusive I think it's a good guess since there are more disengaged players in the game than stupid ones. Only has to be one smart and engaged player on a team to ensure the kill goes where it should. I think Spiffy was a fantastic kill as I wrote before, and I have only become surer of this as I have gone through the thread more times, because the new users seemed to implicitly think Spiffy was good. I think DLE's only reason to not want him to dead is to prevent him from flipping; that mislynch absolutely not would have happened unless UncleSam and Yeti are both also scum, and Walrein also existed and would, if scum, not want that Spiffy flip. So the two most likely candidates for killing him actually have good reasoning in my opinion. Of course, this is an infinite point of contention as I explicitly reject DLE's denial he would have killed Spiffy on the basis that he could have mislynched Spiffy for free, especially while people like Gale Wings Srock were still around (not only to get aggro on DLE but also to draw aggro on themselves). Of course, it is entirely possible his team killed ButteredToast and Walrein killed Spiffy. Either version is plausible to me.
I do not think the ButteredToast kill was terrible so much as it was likely misguided. Rather than being advanced WIFOM tactics I think it was an attempt to deny information while pulling off a guaranteed kill. If I were mafia would I have gone for someone like UncleSam or Yeti or even Da Letter El? Hell no, they are viable protect targets and/or possible intelligent enemy scum. I think it was suboptimal because I would've killed UltrasPlot/TIK myself and he would've satisfied that criteria just as nicely since everyone had him as a townread based on flimsy rationale. Celever, Gale, etc. were all drawing lots of suspicion onto themselves and would've made for easy hypothetical mislynches D2. We know at least one of those users was town!
Yeti raises a really good point about DLE as well but I don't recall any aggression from DLE onto Sam except implicitly in his remark about UltrasPlot, which I construed as neutral. Finally, DLE did at least claim to have switched up his playstyle experimentally or something, so that's kind of a defensive acknowledgment of Sam's and my comments about his uncharacteristic play (and I have seen lazy DLE before, I don't think it looks like this).
Agreed with the comment on Sam and acid flipping which is something to keep in mind as a potential motive for him jumping back on DLE (nah, there is no possible win scenario for you here, Sam, literally everything you do has to be scrutinised). However I am calm enough at the moment about Sam's contributions to today and disagree that Sam was the sole and main vessel behind the Haunted Diamond mislynch. I think that was like three users tbh and strongly consider the possibility that scum were happy to hide behind Sam's aggression to get a D1wagon.
Cancerous point is reasonable but I have literally nothing to say to it because I don't even remember what the guy posted, but I have commented that this was a problem with TIK as well that should be held against UltrasPlot. I don't think it merits much comment because I am providing enough content on my own initiative that conclusions can be drawn from the reasoning in my contributions and I am not particularly worried about being mislynched today.
Also agreed on PokeguyNXB should continue to play OC mafia, I distinctly remember there have been games where all the good players went idle and PokeguyNXB still bothered to submit actions. You've been around ages, we like you. NOC mafia isn't for everyone, a lot of people find it demanding and stressful as townie and/or scum (I fucking hate playing it as scum, and the Avalon analogue here is actually pretty relevant as I had at one point something between a 1/3-1/2 win rate as Spy and a well over 1/2 win rate as Resistance, god bless.) IDR if I ever have lost as scum in NOC but everyone on Smogon was atrocious at NOC then. Anyway my point is that just that you should really try and show some initiative because while you can be misjudged for that, you will always, always be judged for not showing initiative because it's actively detrimental to both yourself and your team. And I think the posts you did make in this game where you attempted to engage with the game were promising enough. So yeah I really feel bad if me jumping in on you made you guiltier.
Gale had very interesting and confident reads imo, PokeguyNXB town, UltrasPlot town (although I think the logic here was a travesty because it seemed to be based off that whole let the newbies lynch thing), absolute obsession with US and Celever as mafia, DLE > HD as the superior D1 scum lynch from the PoV both were scum (again terrible logic but confident read on DLE), seems to have a built in IQ scanner. Here's the updated reads post if anyone wants to review it: http://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/fire-ice-day-2.3543996/page-19#post-6337130 A lot of it is nonsensical IMO but I'd love to hear otherwise. And I don't think the logic being bad invalidates the conclusions X) I suppose the point I want up for discussion by posting that link is:
I have a mixed read on Celever and really really want to see a post out of him. I think he might be a safe lynch target but probably nobody's favourite? To be honest I think FROM THE POV YOU DO NOT THINK DA LETTER EL IS LIKELY SCUM (zzzzzzzzzzzzz), Walrein/U-turn Out is the safest lynch, not Celever or even acidphoenix. There is just nothing redeeming there except U-turn Out making a rather populist reads post. I'm not switching my scope atm but Celever is in my peripheral vision.
I know this post is really long sorry 'bout it, its how I roll and I'm tired and don't have time to prune it, so I am just going to emphasise with formatting my important points.
Now for a change of pace I'm just going to quickly run through the things I didn't like about Walrein's play:
Walrein was legitimately inactive; I read it in the papers (you can infer it from his Circus commitments alone let alone irl ones). I do respect the attempt to contribute, or at least be seen as contributing. But I think there's a very evasive nature to it, the exact same hiding in plain sight shit I found dodgy about DLE (who straight up claimed he had switched up his playstyle).
this was a brutal own on PokeguyNXB with town reads on Yeti, Sam, and TIK, scumreads on Gale and Spiffy, and nullreads on everyone not mentioned
Haunted Diamond conceded the lynch on them and while we had a nice and sensible post from ButteredToast in response we then also got
Nothing further except a reiteration of the Celever and acidphoenix scumreads until here
The BT postmortem is a-okay except he says he doesn't scumread Gale and then namechecks Gale in both of the scenarios he used to formulate his conclusion for why BT was killed (1, 3). Then he says
Also I see from Walrein's next post that DLE made the same post I did and like DLE said Walrein just shrugged it off, I think there is truly no refutation scum!Walrein can make in that situation. I think the correct play is to shake shake shake it off as being a problem with Gale, but the problems with the post there extend beyond having trouble reading Gale (and apparently literally everyone but DLE + unholy trinity) and suggest a poorly constructed lie. Maybe Walrein killed Spiffy and relied on the same tactic and then had to kind of redirect focus to the BT kill while hiding the information he had, or vice versa but more aggressively.
next up: http://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/fire-ice-day-2.3543996/page-17#post-6336687
Gale interpreted this as legitimate endorsement which I am not sure it was, but whatever. This is an honest post, but I think it works better for scum Walrein than it works for town Walrein, in that it nullifies some of the evasiveness and pacifies the whole Walrein-Spiffy shit while absolving him of having to come up with a(nother) lie, whereas town Walrein is refusing to reconsider anything about the kills even after being called out on that atrocity about ButteredToast, again, just total laziness, codependence, and noncommitalness that does not help the town on any level.
PLEAD THE FIFTH, WALREIN. Like as I've said Walrein had legitimate and obvious commitments even just on this forum let alone irl, but he basically says 'I'm doing that thing that my scumtell is' more or less (but with less explicit stalling and more under the radar play). I feel like this is an unintentional scumslip because Walrein was trying very much to appear in opposition to these inactive players (acid and Pokeguy) since he was tunnelling them, trying very much to make his actual posts look considered and interrogative and ignoring DLE when DLE poked holes in them, the intended inference here is not self-incrimination. Also still only three scumreads in a game where most of us have 4-5, and all of them easy targets. Literal non-commit on Gale and Cancerous (? this I do find odd because most people bothered halfheartedly at least to say Cancerous was weak!town, so I see where DLE is coming from I guess), but thinks (and yes I do believe this game was likely randomised entirely) all of DLE, Sam, and Yeti are town with grudges somehow...? Is the missing scum himself? Also, buddying DLE again.
Nothing interesting after this until we got a U-Turn In. Now I find it reassuring that U-Turn Out made a commitment to post as soon as they joined and then backed it up with something actually worthwhile, and like I said I think U-Turn Out has made some solid contributions to this game and I wouldn't really read them as scum if it were not for Hannahh and Walrein. This is the post for reference
Maintains the scumreads Walrein did, but I'll give them that because everyone felt like that at this stage of the game iirc and the reads were clearly articulated in a way that differentiated all three users from each other and backed up the case. However, from the PoV U-Turn Out is scum and one of their townreads is partnered with them, process of elimination dictates U-Turn Out pick on those users. I think the comments on Yeti and Sam are fair and agree with them and I think they also generally reflect consensus, although most people are more polarised on Sam and willing to at least implicitly accuse or defend him. What I really did not like was the strong townread on DLE, and it is where I continue to derive the relationship between DLE and Walrein from. The only other strong read in that post was the strong townread on Yeti and to me they are in wildly different leagues, literally everyone thinks Yeti is strong town. It's one of the least substantiated reads and it's bizarre in context of the Sam read, at least for me. To be rigorous, U-Turn Out has clearly read the thread and is aware DLE was after Walrein, so yeah.. doesn't look good either way.
Next big post by U-Turn Out here
We are in agreement that the BT kill was maybe a misguided but risk averse kill with good info-denial intentions. At least they put this point a lot better than Walrein tbh. I'd like to see some substantiation on why the Spiffy kill was probably Pokeguy/Celever and not DLE/Sam tho. U-Turn Out did later clarify these points which I found to be a positive, but none of their positions really shifted.
this if walrein posted that I'd lambast him but since it's a newer user I guess I kinda give it a pass, IDK. It does basically amount to semantics and more ambivalence coming off quite a confident entry. But we do see a willingness to revise stances. I am not sure what to make of this tendency because it may be too pronounced. In reality the stances may not be adjusting in a sensible magnitude at all. Anyway UTO is doing a very good job of saving face if they are indeed scum but I think they are in an awkward position to read without solely reading them as Walrein, because Walrein's opinions had become hegemonic at this point, and their newness legitimises some of the ambivalence. But the lynch interests are so fixed and so utterly unaffected by opinions on other users that there is no need for UTO to do anything but push an agenda. If UTO and DLE are partners then this behaviour is uncanny.
I really have nothing to say about acidphoenix and PokeguyNXB btw, I think everyone has spoken enough about them until we get a sub for PGNXB and... something done about acidphoenix, fuck knows, that is a dead end, I think acidphoenix lynch is worth discussing perhaps since I doubt we can even get two subs whether acidphoenix wants to be subbed or not and I agree the mafia are not all active and engaged users as I posted previously. But I think it is more interesting and worthwhile while we all yet live and summer reigns to discuss actually active users while debating whether we want to lynch acidphoenix.
Also I think I forgot to clarify this but yes, UltrasPlot was the one who suggested lynching the 5 users I listed Yeti, that quote was from an UltrasPlot post about the ButteredToast murder. I wrote Haunted Diamond fsr and then WE ALL KNOW WHA THAPPENS IF YOU EDIT POSTS so..
goodnight, please post things while I sleep
- Absurdly noncommittal posting style is discordant with having the exact same scumreads literally the whole game (Haunted Diamond, PokeguyNXB, acidphoenix, Celever) and sticking to them
- Having the same reads the whole game when you have been in from D1 and not reconsidering them in a meaningful way suggests pushing an agenda and not scumhunting
- That is an incredibly lazy set of scumreads and consists of three inactive/scared players and Celever, who everyone else apparently wants to stick a katana through or something, so, populism from someone who knows how to play mafia a lot better than that
- No real reaction to the new information
- Protecting DLE
- Excessively considered posts in light of the fact they reached few conclusions
- Signal to noise ratio: Crystal Castles track
Walrein was legitimately inactive; I read it in the papers (you can infer it from his Circus commitments alone let alone irl ones). I do respect the attempt to contribute, or at least be seen as contributing. But I think there's a very evasive nature to it, the exact same hiding in plain sight shit I found dodgy about DLE (who straight up claimed he had switched up his playstyle).
this was a brutal own on PokeguyNXB with town reads on Yeti, Sam, and TIK, scumreads on Gale and Spiffy, and nullreads on everyone not mentioned
Haunted Diamond conceded the lynch on them and while we had a nice and sensible post from ButteredToast in response we then also got
Laziest D1 bandwagon ever?
Laziest D1 bandwagon ever. Also the fourth person to vote for Haunted Diamond, which I really really do not like as it is a momentum-building position in a bandwagon you are happy to see crash and burn. Basically what I see going on here is a Walrein happy to pounce on in the middle of a bandwagon at a point where he could be like 'well, like, the dude literally said he was ok with being voted, clearly not town play' even though that wasn't the sentiment of the post at all (it was a dumb and misguided post, sure, and I agree that defeatism is antitown, but it wasn't inherently antitown other than that or even threatening anyone at that point), seeing that the PokeguyNXB lynch is not going to gain traction because we never know how to read him and waffle on lynching him for a few days.
Nothing further except a reiteration of the Celever and acidphoenix scumreads until here
The BT postmortem is a-okay except he says he doesn't scumread Gale and then namechecks Gale in both of the scenarios he used to formulate his conclusion for why BT was killed (1, 3). Then he says
I think the relationship is actually as Gale stated it, I think Gale was clearly distancing himself from DLE (but has flipped town, so, like, you can see why, especially because he thought DLE was scum, and he had no motive to hide that distancing at all) but as noted by many DLE was trying to push that connection and never refute it. AND he townreads DLE in that exact same post. It is utterly incoherent, and maybe Walrein was tired or whatever but my point isn't that Walrein is dumb because he most certainly isn't, it's that he's being bizarrely wishy-washy. So there's this weird back-and-forth on Gale, which is understandable because nobody knew what to make of him, but it's the logic underpinning his major contribution to the game and falls apart completely because he's hesitant to commit to any reads except his unholy trinity. From a scum PoV Gale probably looked clean enough to hold back a bit on because they knew he wasn't on their team and so he could only be one of the others and there were plenty of other reasonable candidates, I'd hedge my bets too (admittedly most of them generated around entire lack of activity or activity around Gale). I also really am uncomfortable with how he dismissed the Spiffy kill (which was a 'tornado siren' towards him and DLE) in the same post as he town-reads DLE. Keep in mind that if my theory is correct, Walrein knows who killed whom, so seeing him break it down like in such an awkward manner is quite curious. I'm struggling to extrapolate upon this point because I just want to go to bed, maybe I can articulate it upon tomorrow, feel free to run with it.
Also I see from Walrein's next post that DLE made the same post I did and like DLE said Walrein just shrugged it off, I think there is truly no refutation scum!Walrein can make in that situation. I think the correct play is to shake shake shake it off as being a problem with Gale, but the problems with the post there extend beyond having trouble reading Gale (and apparently literally everyone but DLE + unholy trinity) and suggest a poorly constructed lie. Maybe Walrein killed Spiffy and relied on the same tactic and then had to kind of redirect focus to the BT kill while hiding the information he had, or vice versa but more aggressively.
next up: http://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/fire-ice-day-2.3543996/page-17#post-6336687
Gale interpreted this as legitimate endorsement which I am not sure it was, but whatever. This is an honest post, but I think it works better for scum Walrein than it works for town Walrein, in that it nullifies some of the evasiveness and pacifies the whole Walrein-Spiffy shit while absolving him of having to come up with a(nother) lie, whereas town Walrein is refusing to reconsider anything about the kills even after being called out on that atrocity about ButteredToast, again, just total laziness, codependence, and noncommitalness that does not help the town on any level.
Like, Yanny actually put it best.
this is a whopper
PLEAD THE FIFTH, WALREIN. Like as I've said Walrein had legitimate and obvious commitments even just on this forum let alone irl, but he basically says 'I'm doing that thing that my scumtell is' more or less (but with less explicit stalling and more under the radar play). I feel like this is an unintentional scumslip because Walrein was trying very much to appear in opposition to these inactive players (acid and Pokeguy) since he was tunnelling them, trying very much to make his actual posts look considered and interrogative and ignoring DLE when DLE poked holes in them, the intended inference here is not self-incrimination. Also still only three scumreads in a game where most of us have 4-5, and all of them easy targets. Literal non-commit on Gale and Cancerous (? this I do find odd because most people bothered halfheartedly at least to say Cancerous was weak!town, so I see where DLE is coming from I guess), but thinks (and yes I do believe this game was likely randomised entirely) all of DLE, Sam, and Yeti are town with grudges somehow...? Is the missing scum himself? Also, buddying DLE again.
Nothing interesting after this until we got a U-Turn In. Now I find it reassuring that U-Turn Out made a commitment to post as soon as they joined and then backed it up with something actually worthwhile, and like I said I think U-Turn Out has made some solid contributions to this game and I wouldn't really read them as scum if it were not for Hannahh and Walrein. This is the post for reference
Maintains the scumreads Walrein did, but I'll give them that because everyone felt like that at this stage of the game iirc and the reads were clearly articulated in a way that differentiated all three users from each other and backed up the case. However, from the PoV U-Turn Out is scum and one of their townreads is partnered with them, process of elimination dictates U-Turn Out pick on those users. I think the comments on Yeti and Sam are fair and agree with them and I think they also generally reflect consensus, although most people are more polarised on Sam and willing to at least implicitly accuse or defend him. What I really did not like was the strong townread on DLE, and it is where I continue to derive the relationship between DLE and Walrein from. The only other strong read in that post was the strong townread on Yeti and to me they are in wildly different leagues, literally everyone thinks Yeti is strong town. It's one of the least substantiated reads and it's bizarre in context of the Sam read, at least for me. To be rigorous, U-Turn Out has clearly read the thread and is aware DLE was after Walrein, so yeah.. doesn't look good either way.
Next big post by U-Turn Out here
We are in agreement that the BT kill was maybe a misguided but risk averse kill with good info-denial intentions. At least they put this point a lot better than Walrein tbh. I'd like to see some substantiation on why the Spiffy kill was probably Pokeguy/Celever and not DLE/Sam tho. U-Turn Out did later clarify these points which I found to be a positive, but none of their positions really shifted.
this if walrein posted that I'd lambast him but since it's a newer user I guess I kinda give it a pass, IDK. It does basically amount to semantics and more ambivalence coming off quite a confident entry. But we do see a willingness to revise stances. I am not sure what to make of this tendency because it may be too pronounced. In reality the stances may not be adjusting in a sensible magnitude at all. Anyway UTO is doing a very good job of saving face if they are indeed scum but I think they are in an awkward position to read without solely reading them as Walrein, because Walrein's opinions had become hegemonic at this point, and their newness legitimises some of the ambivalence. But the lynch interests are so fixed and so utterly unaffected by opinions on other users that there is no need for UTO to do anything but push an agenda. If UTO and DLE are partners then this behaviour is uncanny.
I really have nothing to say about acidphoenix and PokeguyNXB btw, I think everyone has spoken enough about them until we get a sub for PGNXB and... something done about acidphoenix, fuck knows, that is a dead end, I think acidphoenix lynch is worth discussing perhaps since I doubt we can even get two subs whether acidphoenix wants to be subbed or not and I agree the mafia are not all active and engaged users as I posted previously. But I think it is more interesting and worthwhile while we all yet live and summer reigns to discuss actually active users while debating whether we want to lynch acidphoenix.
Also I think I forgot to clarify this but yes, UltrasPlot was the one who suggested lynching the 5 users I listed Yeti, that quote was from an UltrasPlot post about the ButteredToast murder. I wrote Haunted Diamond fsr and then WE ALL KNOW WHA THAPPENS IF YOU EDIT POSTS so..
goodnight, please post things while I sleep
I can't sleep. So,
Thinking it over I am increasingly concerned by Da Letter El's soft proposition we play for the flip.
Thoughts on the lynch, everyone?
Thinking it over I am increasingly concerned by Da Letter El's soft proposition we play for the flip.
So, this flip would make me look scummy if we got a mafia. And this flip as town would yield nothing but a bit more hot-and-cold play for DLE, rather than providing any kind of substantial information about even Celever, let alone Sam. The wording speaks for itself, really. It's not even cherrypicking if you look at what I didn't bold.
Nine townies, we've lost ButteredToast + Haunted Diamond + Spiffy + Gale Wing Srock, so we are at 4 mafia and 5 townies. Mislynching today puts us at 4:4 and reliant on the doctor and crossfire. Playing for the flip is clearly absurd. That doesn't negate the idea of lynching U Turn Out and you know I know that so let's not have that conversation...
Thoughts on the lynch, everyone?
Right, hello, I am still around. It's great to see activity finally pick up again, even if it's just jumpluff quintuple posting all the time :p. This is gonna be a long post, because I've got like 2 days to catch up on...
acidphoenix - decent scum
DLE - decent scum
US - seriously I have a null read on US. I know how capable he is at manipulating, but actually when he's scum I tend to read him townier than when he's town, and rn my gut says he's playing like mafia but there's nothing concrete about it. leaning town. Really it's a null read, but if I had a gun held to my head and I had to say one or the other, it would be town.
Pokeguy - Strongest Town Read in game (maybe replaced by jumpluff now though, making Pokeguy 2nd place)
Though thinking about it, I think that acid flipping scum would make Ultras look scummier. Why? Well, you guys need to ask yourselves WHY Ultras hasn't logged onto Smogon in 8 days, and it's not irl circumstances; he's been on Pokemon Showdown!. I think that Ultras sorta quit the game for a little bit once he saw where discussion was headed today, namely everyone finding acid, his scum partner, scummy. I think that he's sorta scouting the game by lurking as a guest and feigning inactivity to see where the lynch goes, because he doesn't want acid lynched, but doesn't want to buddy him in case he does end up getting lynched anyway. This way he can either hop on the acid wagon by logging back in when votes pile up and get some townie points, or log back in and do a bit of catchup and say "yeah, acid is pretty scummy :o" and get some townie points that way, having his scummie be safe without him having to buddy it. It's all entirely speculation, and obsolete should acid flip town, but I think it's a point worth making.
Either way, I want to restate the point that Ultras is feigning inactivity no matter what, because he has been active on Pokemon Showdown! Draw whatever conclusions from that you wish to make.
Anyway, UncleSam hasn't made a solid reads post where he goes "x user is town, y user is scum", so I'd like to see him do this again, so that we do have some info upon his flip without having to do it from memory and/or digging. I'm not sure what info we'll get from US flipping scum rn besides me, Yeti and jumpluff all looking townier, besides once again UltrasPlot looking scummier. Seriously, why tf is he one of US' strongest town reads? He tried to explain it when I pushed him on it before, but it seemed really contrived and forced. This is another reason why I think Ultras would be a good lynch, because he flips scum we might have found his buddy (US being confident enough in the game reading him as town to be able to make a buss like that safely).
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Right now I most want to lynch UltrasPlot, of course. Cancerous brought up the point that he's been inactive for a week (over that now) and hasn't been subbed out or modkilled, though this is presumably because our host didn't realise he was inactive since he was seeing him on ps! all the time. I think we'll get some real info from Ultras' flip too, whereas DLE and acid don't provide as much. jumpluff called DLE out for suggesting we lynch by the flip, but I don't see the issue with it. It's not like if town loses majority the two mafia teams are going to claim and then kill off the remaining town; they will still be trying to act towny and scumhunting to get the other mafia lynched. As such, the flip is still something we have to consider, and I think that Ultras is scum anyway, so it's the best of both worlds.
jumpluff, I'd like to see your thoughts on UltrasPlot (since you haven't shared anything definitive yet besides saying that you think TIK was read as too town) and your post on me, since you said you were going to put something together.
I'd also like to see a solid opinion about UltrasPlot from Yeti.
I can go into more detail if others want, but acid said that he just wanted a strong statement, so that's what I'm going to give him (though I've given a strong statement on all of them but US already lol)acidphoenix said:
acidphoenix - decent scum
DLE - decent scum
US - seriously I have a null read on US. I know how capable he is at manipulating, but actually when he's scum I tend to read him townier than when he's town, and rn my gut says he's playing like mafia but there's nothing concrete about it. leaning town. Really it's a null read, but if I had a gun held to my head and I had to say one or the other, it would be town.
Pokeguy - Strongest Town Read in game (maybe replaced by jumpluff now though, making Pokeguy 2nd place)
Huh? When did that happen? I was never "nowhere in sight", I was one of three users, the other two being US and Yeti, talking AT ALL today. The only time my posts could be interpreted as "stupid aggro" is also my like 2-3 hour argument with Gale about his play trying to get him to improve it for the good of the town. Did you just miss all of my contribution?jumpluff said:
H-hey, I'm gutsy! ;~;jumpluff said:
Well, acid hasn't expressed his opinions too well, so I don't know how many of his reads are more than gut. Assuming that he's put hours of thought into each player, though, I'm still not sure how much his flip would change my reads. His reads are very much "agree with everyone else" except for saying that UncleSam is scum, which fsr all of the new players are thinking. As such, I don't think that we can get much info from his flip. Especially since everyone in the game scum reads him.jumpluff said:
Though thinking about it, I think that acid flipping scum would make Ultras look scummier. Why? Well, you guys need to ask yourselves WHY Ultras hasn't logged onto Smogon in 8 days, and it's not irl circumstances; he's been on Pokemon Showdown!. I think that Ultras sorta quit the game for a little bit once he saw where discussion was headed today, namely everyone finding acid, his scum partner, scummy. I think that he's sorta scouting the game by lurking as a guest and feigning inactivity to see where the lynch goes, because he doesn't want acid lynched, but doesn't want to buddy him in case he does end up getting lynched anyway. This way he can either hop on the acid wagon by logging back in when votes pile up and get some townie points, or log back in and do a bit of catchup and say "yeah, acid is pretty scummy :o" and get some townie points that way, having his scummie be safe without him having to buddy it. It's all entirely speculation, and obsolete should acid flip town, but I think it's a point worth making.
Either way, I want to restate the point that Ultras is feigning inactivity no matter what, because he has been active on Pokemon Showdown! Draw whatever conclusions from that you wish to make.
Not at all... I don't know why you think I'm playing so defensively TBH. Maybe my tone is weird, but it's my normal tone, so you can't incriminate me of anything based on that. I'd much rather you look at why I do what I do instead of how I do them, because it's just easier and more productive for everyone if you do that. I posted my reads here, and honestly they haven't changed much over the course of this day, because no one's interacted with anyone today except for me, Yeti, US and now you, jumpluff. The only difference is that DLE has now gotten scummier -- but still not as scummy as Ultras. And, obviously, Cancerous' spot is now townier.
What relationship? I think acid is scum, and he reads me as scum back.jumpluff said:
I'm really not. I defended US Day 1, sure, but how is that imitation? I guess we're both prodding users to get them to say things, but that's not so much imitation as it is just common sense for townies to do. How exactly am I imitating him? We don't even agree on several reads.jumpluff said:
I went over acid earlier on in this post. If Sam flips scum, I would probably have users like acid and Ultras pushing for my head the next day. However, I think that Yeti does have a point in that if one of the active players is scum, it's probably just one. Obviously I think that Yeti is leaning town and jumpluff is strong town, so if one of the active players is scum that means it is UncleSam, but I'm not really feeling that read either. I think that it's just ended up that the more inactive users all rolled scum, which is of course good for the town, though somewhat negative for the success of this game (though after host fuck ups like jumpluff's premature subbing and modkilling Gale this is hardly a game to write home about anyway). I think that all of DLE's smaller posts was him trying to look more active, though.
Anyway, UncleSam hasn't made a solid reads post where he goes "x user is town, y user is scum", so I'd like to see him do this again, so that we do have some info upon his flip without having to do it from memory and/or digging. I'm not sure what info we'll get from US flipping scum rn besides me, Yeti and jumpluff all looking townier, besides once again UltrasPlot looking scummier. Seriously, why tf is he one of US' strongest town reads? He tried to explain it when I pushed him on it before, but it seemed really contrived and forced. This is another reason why I think Ultras would be a good lynch, because he flips scum we might have found his buddy (US being confident enough in the game reading him as town to be able to make a buss like that safely).
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Right now I most want to lynch UltrasPlot, of course. Cancerous brought up the point that he's been inactive for a week (over that now) and hasn't been subbed out or modkilled, though this is presumably because our host didn't realise he was inactive since he was seeing him on ps! all the time. I think we'll get some real info from Ultras' flip too, whereas DLE and acid don't provide as much. jumpluff called DLE out for suggesting we lynch by the flip, but I don't see the issue with it. It's not like if town loses majority the two mafia teams are going to claim and then kill off the remaining town; they will still be trying to act towny and scumhunting to get the other mafia lynched. As such, the flip is still something we have to consider, and I think that Ultras is scum anyway, so it's the best of both worlds.
jumpluff, I'd like to see your thoughts on UltrasPlot (since you haven't shared anything definitive yet besides saying that you think TIK was read as too town) and your post on me, since you said you were going to put something together.
I'd also like to see a solid opinion about UltrasPlot from Yeti.
UltrasPlot went after me for basically no reason with total assurance. I sort of doubt a newer mafia player would do that.
Celever I made a reads post more or less like...five posts up? Where I stated how I felt people were related to the lynch? I actually agree with jumpluff that ranking the people you townread might not be a great idea in terms of it telling the mafia who might be a stronger kill target, so suffice it to say that the three people who I don't want to see lynched (Yeti/pluff/UltrasPlot) I feel are town. Yes UltrasPlot has done some weird stuff but I've played with TIK and newer mafia players before and I've never seen one act so self-assured that he can do no wrong. Maybe he's just a horrible noobscum who doesn't give a shit, but I think it's roughly as likely as the liklihood of a Yeti/pluff scumteam (which is basically a 100% guaranteed scumteam if one or the other is scum let's be honest), ie not very likely but I can't rule it out.
I think it's interesting that Celever says this:
Finally Celever, let's say you're right about both DLE/acidphoenix being scum...who are the other two scum if Pokeguy is town, you (presumably) are, Yeti is 'strong town', and you're 'leaning US town'? You don't really mention U-Turn Out but presumably you think he must be mafia then, yes? It's obvious you think UltrasPlot would then be the fourth, but I find the lack of talking about U-Turn Out kind of interesting in and of itself.
I'd like to remind people that given almost half the remaining players are mafia, hard townreading people is really weird to me at this point. I think it's probable from recent posting that jumpluff is town and so is Yeti, but given how many mafia are left a jumpluff/Yeti scumteam has to be considered as a decent possibility. Neither is playing particularly like mafia but the point is that there's just not that many townies left, so it is very unlikely that all the players posting walls are village.
jumpluff posted so much that even I can't slog through all of it with my full attention, congratulations on out tl;dring me X_X
I will respond to the things that stood out to me though:
-I more or less agree with your prognosis on DLE's play, as I stated earlier. I find DLE's really uncharacteristic and I was also expecting a much stronger reaction from him then we got. I think he is very likely mafia.
-I agree that U-Turn Out is a possible mafia partner for DLE. The problem is that DLE hasn't really gone after people this game at all and his reads have just been really, really soft except for the spat with Spiffy day 1. Again, another reason to suspect DLE but it makes it harder to pin down who, if anyone, couldn't realistically be his partner (I'd think jumpluff almost certainly isn't based on recent posts, and I'd be very surprised if acidphoenix is his partner given how hard he has mafiaread DLE).
-You really never bring up the possibility that Yeti is mafia. I don't think it's likely she is, but I'm probably going to work from the assumption that either you two are a mafia team or both village. Would you agree that this is a fair assumption, and if not, why not?
I agree with jumpluff that I don't want to finalize the lynch prior to getting a sub for UltrasPlot at the least and hopefully Pokeguy as well. I do not agree with not voting people for pressure though, Yeti refused to vote Day 1 (and afaik hasn't ever voted anyone this game?) and frankly I think that if the two of you are village it's a real waste of an opportunity not to vote anyone, even if you 'strong scumread' them. I'd like to see you put your vote where your mouth is, so to speak (obviously outside of pushing something to L-3 or higher).
I think that anything other than a DLE lynch at this point would be suboptimal. After that, I'm actually leaning away from acidphoenix and more towards U-Turn Out/Celever as viable lynches. I think this is sort of in the same boat as why I don't think a Pokeguy lynch would be good at this point.
I'm going to say it again, but the fact that literally everyone is townreading jumpluff and Yeti is bothering me. Is their play more or less free of scumtells, and is it driving discussion to find patterns of play (mostly jumpluff here but Yeti too)? Yes. Does this disqualify them from being mafia? No. Both are strong enough players to be able to post SO MUCH that they simply overwhelm you, even if this is, classically, one of jumpluff's strongest towntells. The reason I feel obliged to bring this up is that if jumpluff/Yeti are a scumteam and no one even talks about the possibility then I think it's very likely I die and no one questions them ever again.
Celever I made a reads post more or less like...five posts up? Where I stated how I felt people were related to the lynch? I actually agree with jumpluff that ranking the people you townread might not be a great idea in terms of it telling the mafia who might be a stronger kill target, so suffice it to say that the three people who I don't want to see lynched (Yeti/pluff/UltrasPlot) I feel are town. Yes UltrasPlot has done some weird stuff but I've played with TIK and newer mafia players before and I've never seen one act so self-assured that he can do no wrong. Maybe he's just a horrible noobscum who doesn't give a shit, but I think it's roughly as likely as the liklihood of a Yeti/pluff scumteam (which is basically a 100% guaranteed scumteam if one or the other is scum let's be honest), ie not very likely but I can't rule it out.
I think it's interesting that Celever says this:
I presume he's saying that 'if one of Yeti/jumpluff/US is mafia and the first two are village then the last would therefore be mafia!' but like...ok? This reads a lot to me like Celever is trying to deflect attention to the inactives while also buddying DLE ever so slightly, which given I read DLE as mafia (ESPECIALLY after his recent posts) I find really scummy. I'd like to float a Celever/DLE scumteam possibility, though as I recall DLE might've called out Celever at some point.Celever said:
Finally Celever, let's say you're right about both DLE/acidphoenix being scum...who are the other two scum if Pokeguy is town, you (presumably) are, Yeti is 'strong town', and you're 'leaning US town'? You don't really mention U-Turn Out but presumably you think he must be mafia then, yes? It's obvious you think UltrasPlot would then be the fourth, but I find the lack of talking about U-Turn Out kind of interesting in and of itself.
I'd like to remind people that given almost half the remaining players are mafia, hard townreading people is really weird to me at this point. I think it's probable from recent posting that jumpluff is town and so is Yeti, but given how many mafia are left a jumpluff/Yeti scumteam has to be considered as a decent possibility. Neither is playing particularly like mafia but the point is that there's just not that many townies left, so it is very unlikely that all the players posting walls are village.
jumpluff posted so much that even I can't slog through all of it with my full attention, congratulations on out tl;dring me X_X
I will respond to the things that stood out to me though:
-I more or less agree with your prognosis on DLE's play, as I stated earlier. I find DLE's really uncharacteristic and I was also expecting a much stronger reaction from him then we got. I think he is very likely mafia.
-I agree that U-Turn Out is a possible mafia partner for DLE. The problem is that DLE hasn't really gone after people this game at all and his reads have just been really, really soft except for the spat with Spiffy day 1. Again, another reason to suspect DLE but it makes it harder to pin down who, if anyone, couldn't realistically be his partner (I'd think jumpluff almost certainly isn't based on recent posts, and I'd be very surprised if acidphoenix is his partner given how hard he has mafiaread DLE).
-You really never bring up the possibility that Yeti is mafia. I don't think it's likely she is, but I'm probably going to work from the assumption that either you two are a mafia team or both village. Would you agree that this is a fair assumption, and if not, why not?
I agree with jumpluff that I don't want to finalize the lynch prior to getting a sub for UltrasPlot at the least and hopefully Pokeguy as well. I do not agree with not voting people for pressure though, Yeti refused to vote Day 1 (and afaik hasn't ever voted anyone this game?) and frankly I think that if the two of you are village it's a real waste of an opportunity not to vote anyone, even if you 'strong scumread' them. I'd like to see you put your vote where your mouth is, so to speak (obviously outside of pushing something to L-3 or higher).
I think that anything other than a DLE lynch at this point would be suboptimal. After that, I'm actually leaning away from acidphoenix and more towards U-Turn Out/Celever as viable lynches. I think this is sort of in the same boat as why I don't think a Pokeguy lynch would be good at this point.
I'm going to say it again, but the fact that literally everyone is townreading jumpluff and Yeti is bothering me. Is their play more or less free of scumtells, and is it driving discussion to find patterns of play (mostly jumpluff here but Yeti too)? Yes. Does this disqualify them from being mafia? No. Both are strong enough players to be able to post SO MUCH that they simply overwhelm you, even if this is, classically, one of jumpluff's strongest towntells. The reason I feel obliged to bring this up is that if jumpluff/Yeti are a scumteam and no one even talks about the possibility then I think it's very likely I die and no one questions them ever again.
UncleSam
Considering I told jumpluff my alliance out of the game I don't think they can really comment on it too much, since they know it (unless you assume I lied at a point where I didn't think they were going to sub in?), unless you want them to attempt to read without the prior knowledge coloring the read. Or you think that it's more likely our host subbed them in for my partner than he just plain screwed up subbing them before I, as town, died.
If you think this mafia team was originally me/Cancerous, which kill did we perform? Because it would have been me and him when the kill was made, and on Day One. Your suspicion also makes zero sense when you have been the one to call out that my top scumtell is defensiveness over my partner. Why was I the one calling into question how many townreads there were despite Cancerous' teetering levels of activity and contribution, if so? Surely I would have just let other people convince themselves Cancerous was town without undermining that?
Additionally you are the one who has said that if everyone reads someone as town, it's most likely they are town. Now you're questioning that logic because.. it actually happened? And everyone thinks we are most likely town, so now you doubt the entire game's reads? Especially on me, who has had two days of activity to be read. Posting so much the rest of the game is overwhelmed is also your village leadertell, lol.
I mean, sure, the point can be addressed, but your own statements earlier in the game make your presumption it's a possibility unlikely, and something you SHOULDN'T consider based on your own logic. Which is why I find it weird you mention it at all. Do you not like that two townies are being townread so strongly, more than you? Do you have something to hide?
Considering I told jumpluff my alliance out of the game I don't think they can really comment on it too much, since they know it (unless you assume I lied at a point where I didn't think they were going to sub in?), unless you want them to attempt to read without the prior knowledge coloring the read. Or you think that it's more likely our host subbed them in for my partner than he just plain screwed up subbing them before I, as town, died.
If you think this mafia team was originally me/Cancerous, which kill did we perform? Because it would have been me and him when the kill was made, and on Day One. Your suspicion also makes zero sense when you have been the one to call out that my top scumtell is defensiveness over my partner. Why was I the one calling into question how many townreads there were despite Cancerous' teetering levels of activity and contribution, if so? Surely I would have just let other people convince themselves Cancerous was town without undermining that?
Additionally you are the one who has said that if everyone reads someone as town, it's most likely they are town. Now you're questioning that logic because.. it actually happened? And everyone thinks we are most likely town, so now you doubt the entire game's reads? Especially on me, who has had two days of activity to be read. Posting so much the rest of the game is overwhelmed is also your village leadertell, lol.
I mean, sure, the point can be addressed, but your own statements earlier in the game make your presumption it's a possibility unlikely, and something you SHOULDN'T consider based on your own logic. Which is why I find it weird you mention it at all. Do you not like that two townies are being townread so strongly, more than you? Do you have something to hide?
That's a really scummy response to suggesting the mere possibility that two people who are 100% treating each other as town might not be so.
And yes, if you and Cancerous were a scum team it would be entirely possible you killed Spiffy. Also you really never pushed Cancerous at all, I'm not sure why you're claiming you are now.
I already said that both you and pluff seem to be making town contributions. I mentioned that if one of you is mafia it is highly likely the other is as well. Not to mention that that whole post reeks of your strongest scumtell ^_^
I wasn't really considering that as a possibility so much as mentioning it but now I definitely am and would like people's opinions on that. Do you think it's more likely the host fucks up on the sub-in or is it more likely the host subs in a player for their scum partner, even when there were other subs needed?
Neither Yeti nor jumpluff is anything other than a terrible lynch today, don't get me wrong. But people absolutely need to keep this possibility in mind, particularly if one of them flips mafia.
And yes, if you and Cancerous were a scum team it would be entirely possible you killed Spiffy. Also you really never pushed Cancerous at all, I'm not sure why you're claiming you are now.
I already said that both you and pluff seem to be making town contributions. I mentioned that if one of you is mafia it is highly likely the other is as well. Not to mention that that whole post reeks of your strongest scumtell ^_^
I wasn't really considering that as a possibility so much as mentioning it but now I definitely am and would like people's opinions on that. Do you think it's more likely the host fucks up on the sub-in or is it more likely the host subs in a player for their scum partner, even when there were other subs needed?
Neither Yeti nor jumpluff is anything other than a terrible lynch today, don't get me wrong. But people absolutely need to keep this possibility in mind, particularly if one of them flips mafia.
No, the fact you spend a post SUGGESTING it after your prior statements in the game is a scummy move.
I never pushed for a Cancerous lynch, no, because he was pretty far from 'most scummy candidate.' But if you think I never called out that his contributions shadily dropped off after a couple funny posts got him widely townread, you're rewriting this thread. Post 192 I call out his lack of contributions following the mass of TRs. Post 196 I elaborate I dislike the slack-off after TRs (which I maintain is the same thing TIK did and I am equally uncertain about him and his sub).
Your very next post, 197, is where you state my biggest scumtell is defending my partner. Sure, you can try and wrongly frame me defending jumpluff right now, but in the very post you accused me of defending and buddying the TOWN Haunted Diamond that YOU mislynched, you post right below me calling out Cancerous twice, a move I would NEVER make due to my scumtell. And rightly so, I don't think anyone has connected us as a possible scumteam all game.
The host just plain screwed up subbing jumpluff in before I died. If we weren't so pressed for activity I doubt he would've, but it was a mistake to sub in a player who knows the team of another. Maybe he didn't read jumpluff's note about that in time, or figured since everyone townread me anyway it'd be fine for them to come in? idk.
Thinking we killed Spiffy, really? That was the kill I never would have performed because I thought he was scum and could've been pushed as a lynch. Nonsensical. I stated as much earlier in the game and I'm pretty sure you felt it was sound logic. Every single one of your justifications for this idea is in massive conflict with a prior statement you have made. If you were actually following through with how you've stated to think about the game you wouldn't suggest this, instead you renege on stuff you have trumpeted to the thread in favor of suggesting what is probably the least likely, and worst, suspicion for a scumteam possible.
It really makes me wonder why you'd seek to put this little droplet of undermining into the town except you dislike how much credit we get as town and you think it puts you in danger. Your authority, your ability to blend in, whatever it may be. The fact your own ideas contradict any possible logic TO think we are a scumteam is what's got me suspicious as to your motivations. If you think we ARE town, and neither of us is gunning for a lynch on you at all, it's not a very town move to suggest such, when the town clearly needs as much good discussion as possible.
This is also what you tried to do to me on Day One when everyone had townread me then, pin me as Haunted Diamond's partner. It's the exact same format, too. "If this one person flips mafia, or I wind up dead and town, clearly Yeti is X's partner!!"
What do you have against me being seen as town and trusted, hmm?
And to whatever inane point was made I don't lynch - I hammered HD before DLE could. Otherwise, no, I don't pressure vote and I only vote when a lynch is actually decided. This is how I've always played NOCs.
Personally, I would prefer to lynch DLE or Celever over acidphoenix. I am still unconvinced he isn't just a buffoon town, exactly like Haunted Diamond. That guy played horribly, but he also just did not have a scumtold partner.
So I pose the question to UncleSam jumpluff Celever U-Turn Out Da Letter El ..who else is in the game and active.. nah I think that's it LOL.
Who is acidphoenix's partner IF he is mafia? Please provide evidence of some sort of connection. HD had absolutely NOTHING and was a mislynch. If acidphoenix is the same sort of no-scumbuddy situation I will not support a lynch on this man.
Celever
This is gonna be a crappy excuse but I tried to search the thread and no results would show up, it just spun and then didn't load a results page. So uh if someone can fix w/e this problem is so I can look at all that guy's posts, I will gladly post a read.
I never pushed for a Cancerous lynch, no, because he was pretty far from 'most scummy candidate.' But if you think I never called out that his contributions shadily dropped off after a couple funny posts got him widely townread, you're rewriting this thread. Post 192 I call out his lack of contributions following the mass of TRs. Post 196 I elaborate I dislike the slack-off after TRs (which I maintain is the same thing TIK did and I am equally uncertain about him and his sub).
Your very next post, 197, is where you state my biggest scumtell is defending my partner. Sure, you can try and wrongly frame me defending jumpluff right now, but in the very post you accused me of defending and buddying the TOWN Haunted Diamond that YOU mislynched, you post right below me calling out Cancerous twice, a move I would NEVER make due to my scumtell. And rightly so, I don't think anyone has connected us as a possible scumteam all game.
The host just plain screwed up subbing jumpluff in before I died. If we weren't so pressed for activity I doubt he would've, but it was a mistake to sub in a player who knows the team of another. Maybe he didn't read jumpluff's note about that in time, or figured since everyone townread me anyway it'd be fine for them to come in? idk.
Thinking we killed Spiffy, really? That was the kill I never would have performed because I thought he was scum and could've been pushed as a lynch. Nonsensical. I stated as much earlier in the game and I'm pretty sure you felt it was sound logic. Every single one of your justifications for this idea is in massive conflict with a prior statement you have made. If you were actually following through with how you've stated to think about the game you wouldn't suggest this, instead you renege on stuff you have trumpeted to the thread in favor of suggesting what is probably the least likely, and worst, suspicion for a scumteam possible.
It really makes me wonder why you'd seek to put this little droplet of undermining into the town except you dislike how much credit we get as town and you think it puts you in danger. Your authority, your ability to blend in, whatever it may be. The fact your own ideas contradict any possible logic TO think we are a scumteam is what's got me suspicious as to your motivations. If you think we ARE town, and neither of us is gunning for a lynch on you at all, it's not a very town move to suggest such, when the town clearly needs as much good discussion as possible.
This is also what you tried to do to me on Day One when everyone had townread me then, pin me as Haunted Diamond's partner. It's the exact same format, too. "If this one person flips mafia, or I wind up dead and town, clearly Yeti is X's partner!!"
What do you have against me being seen as town and trusted, hmm?
And to whatever inane point was made I don't lynch - I hammered HD before DLE could. Otherwise, no, I don't pressure vote and I only vote when a lynch is actually decided. This is how I've always played NOCs.
Personally, I would prefer to lynch DLE or Celever over acidphoenix. I am still unconvinced he isn't just a buffoon town, exactly like Haunted Diamond. That guy played horribly, but he also just did not have a scumtold partner.
So I pose the question to UncleSam jumpluff Celever U-Turn Out Da Letter El ..who else is in the game and active.. nah I think that's it LOL.
Who is acidphoenix's partner IF he is mafia? Please provide evidence of some sort of connection. HD had absolutely NOTHING and was a mislynch. If acidphoenix is the same sort of no-scumbuddy situation I will not support a lynch on this man.
Celever
This is gonna be a crappy excuse but I tried to search the thread and no results would show up, it just spun and then didn't load a results page. So uh if someone can fix w/e this problem is so I can look at all that guy's posts, I will gladly post a read.
Also idk if I replied to this point before but when it's 4-5, lynching a guy just for 'the flip' to try to determine who the scumteams might be, without actually suspecting the guy is scum himself, is a decidedly un-town move.
It's funny that Yeti is reacting so violently to the mere suggestion that people keep the fact that she and jumpluff have more or less confirmed they are on the same team in mind. I didn't 'spend a post talking about it', I mentioned it as a subnote in a post talking primarily about DLE, Celever, and acidphoenix. YOU wrote a post talking specifically about it and then pseudo-threatened me with 'while you're on this subject it makes me think you've got something to hide'. This is scummy. Me making sure people keep all possibilities in mind is not. No one should take it on faith that anyone else is village, and you ought to know that. My point previously was that if most people are town-reading someone that is a reason to think that person is town, that is correct. However, this is logically consistent with the notion of not accepting as fact that someone else is town, and bearing such in mind. I never said that you and jumpluff were probable mafia (though your reaction is making me think it's less unlikely than I previously thought), and I spent the majority of my time discussing other things while you dedicated a post talking about it and essentially demanding I respond to it and justify it.
Spiffy absolutely would've been a strong kill, even jumpluff thinks so. To say that 'I could've mislynched him' is precisely the same fallacy that DLE brought up earlier, and which jumpluff (I think accurately) tore down.
It's really strange how you're so paranoid about someone insisting that no one be above suspicion and that people keep in mind how strange jumpluff's subbing is, because it is undeniably strange and the fact you two are basically confirmed teammates (whether village or mafia) is something people have to keep in mind. I notice that not once did you reject this idea in your post, you just complained that it was what I had accused you of earlier (ie being partners with HD), but in that case there was a CLEARLY different tone to your posts. There is no logical inconsistency within my own posts and if you'd like to try to find one and talk about it by all means, because 'my own ideas' absolutely do not contradict the idea that no one is above suspicion.
Now I've been forced to spend two posts defending...why I want people to bear an obvious point in mind. Instead of talking about shit that will actually have an impact this day (because anyone thinking that Yeti or jumpluff is a viable lynch target is probably just wrong unless I'm missing something) I'm responding to bullshit bared-teeth aggressiveness which is not even remotely what I expected. I guess this is why you pressure people who aren't being pressured though - to see if they respond strangely. And I think there is a clear difference between how Yeti responded here vs how she responded in the HD partner case (she was clearly more interested there in not being seen as HD's partner in case he flipped mafia) that people absolutely need to keep in mind. And if you want to argue otherwise then, quoth jumpluff, come at me.
Speaking of jumpluff, I wonder whether she agrees with my philosophy and general point or not (pretty obviously not the specifics I'd presume).
Spiffy absolutely would've been a strong kill, even jumpluff thinks so. To say that 'I could've mislynched him' is precisely the same fallacy that DLE brought up earlier, and which jumpluff (I think accurately) tore down.
It's really strange how you're so paranoid about someone insisting that no one be above suspicion and that people keep in mind how strange jumpluff's subbing is, because it is undeniably strange and the fact you two are basically confirmed teammates (whether village or mafia) is something people have to keep in mind. I notice that not once did you reject this idea in your post, you just complained that it was what I had accused you of earlier (ie being partners with HD), but in that case there was a CLEARLY different tone to your posts. There is no logical inconsistency within my own posts and if you'd like to try to find one and talk about it by all means, because 'my own ideas' absolutely do not contradict the idea that no one is above suspicion.
Now I've been forced to spend two posts defending...why I want people to bear an obvious point in mind. Instead of talking about shit that will actually have an impact this day (because anyone thinking that Yeti or jumpluff is a viable lynch target is probably just wrong unless I'm missing something) I'm responding to bullshit bared-teeth aggressiveness which is not even remotely what I expected. I guess this is why you pressure people who aren't being pressured though - to see if they respond strangely. And I think there is a clear difference between how Yeti responded here vs how she responded in the HD partner case (she was clearly more interested there in not being seen as HD's partner in case he flipped mafia) that people absolutely need to keep in mind. And if you want to argue otherwise then, quoth jumpluff, come at me.
Speaking of jumpluff, I wonder whether she agrees with my philosophy and general point or not (pretty obviously not the specifics I'd presume).
As for acidphoenix, I agree (and made the point already) that I'm starting to lean more towards him being noobtown in the same vein as HD/Gale/maybe Pokeguy, though if I believe that Pokeguy+acidphoenix are noobtown then that means either Yeti+jumpluff is a mafia or literally everyone else is (DLE/Celever/U-Turn Out/UltrasPlot). If he IS mafia, then I could easily see him being Walrein/U-Turn Out's partner, or Pokeguy/UltrasPlot's if one of them is mafia (and I still don't think the latter is mafia while the former I'm leaning against being mafia).
That post was not a 'violent' reaction. It was calling YOU out for violating your own logic. You have no reason to suggest we are mafia, specifically me, because:
a. At no point did I buddy or defend Cancerous, what you claim is my #1 scumtell and you didn't address at all. Thus you are considering the past 24 hours in a vacuum which is twisting reality to serve your agenda, and not a town move.
b. You believe if everyone thinks a player is town, they probably are, because it's unlikely everyone would be wrong. Yet now you dislike that philosophy? Because the people/person read isn't you?
c. You agreed with my logic I wouldn't have killed Spiffy. DLE may have used the same, and jumpluff may have refuted it, but it remains my logic. Now you think it'd be possible I killed Spiffy? Bogus.
The fact you have twice now suggested to the town, AFTER I have been read and stated as a consensus town read, I may be someone's partner and tried to push contradicting 'evidence' to support it is what makes me jump onto your case.
You yourself think I am town. If you don't even trust your own reads, what do you trust, and why should we let you have any say?
Yet twice, you have tossed out this little trinket of suggestion when I get read as 'too town' for you or something. You seek to undermine my influence as a townie to the rest of the town. Are you jealous people see me as more likely to be clean than you or something? It's clear you can't gun hard for me being scum because there is simply nothing to support it, but you toss out these ideas anyway.
Thus, making me think you have something to hide or that you don't want me to be able to suss out and people listen. In addition to the fact you ignored the MASSIVE point on Day One about who Haunted Diamond's partner possibly could have been. HD gave NO indication he had a partner. Your only thing to go on was that it was me. Leading to this mislynch.
I admit my #1 target, Gale, would have been a mislynch as well. But for all the "can't read him, null, please spare me!!" reads on Gale at least I was willing to MAKE a read on that guy, and Gale even admitted his behavior made him a solid lynch target. Gale had strategy and intention, HD and acidphoenix are aimless town.
The two of us bickering at this point in time is only a distraction for the town. Neither of us is going to be lynched today and if we do decide we are on different teams, we'll be coming to blows on another day. But I do find you contradicting yourself to suggest this idea and what I perceive as a huge reluctance to let me be seen TOO town when your own read on me is town to be suspicious.
Your point that believing Pokeguy AND acidphoenix are noobtown means there are very slim options for the other two townspeople (besides oneself) is exactly why I think DLE or Celever would be better lynches.
I find them more suspicious than you or Cancerous/jumpluff. If Pokeguy and acidphoenix are noobtown playing poorly, they are almost certainly mafia. If one of Pokeguy or acidphoenix is mafia, they still have pretty good odds of being scum. If both Pokeguy and acidphoenix are mafia, the odds go down they are mafia, sure, but it is still likely enough at least one of them is Pokeguy's partner and responsible for Pokeguy's shift in behavior today.
acidphoenix plays like nobody experienced told him to shape up or gave him any suggestions, after his bad behavior Day One.
Now, regarding UltrasPlot:
Post 237: preliminary reads of: slight scum: US, Gale, HD. slight town: Yeti. call out: DLE for vanishing. null: everyone else.
Post 259: reiteration of slight town Yeti read. reason for HD read: bad vibes. ok with lynching: DLE, Celever, Gale.
Post 260: his top lynch is Celever.
Post 304: he makes some interesting statements:
Post 321: he calls out Sam for ignoring his post.
Post 324: he responds to Celever's post, in which Celever states his #2 lynch target is.. UltrasPlot. He now connects more that Celever and Sam defend each other and both want to push the lynch on HD so people ignore them. Definitely scumreading Celever.
Post 326: he pressure votes UncleSam because he doesn't believe there is a good case for the HD lynch (I agree) and Sam hasn't replied to him. He gives several reasons why he doesn't think HD is mafia as well.
Post 334: a really weird and instant reversal. Suddenly, after UncleSam posts, he agrees HD is the best lynch today. But, "If he flips town though we should really take a deeper look at both him and Celever."
Post 344: isn't certain what we're waiting for in hammering HD.
Post 359: votes HD for L-1.
Post 387: call out for Sam/Celever after the mislynch.
Post 391: agrees with Gale's ever-so-faulty idea to let noobs lynch. town reads: Gale and DLE. scum reads: Sam and Celever.
Post 453: he believes the ButteredToast kill was a smart-scum reverse psychology kill. Then he suggests a town-read experienced player be lynched. Rightfully calls out Sam trying to lynch Pokeguy is a repeat of yesterday, so he votes Sam.
Post 455: calls Sam out for 'safe posts' and safe discussion topics, after he mislynched. Believes Sam has switched to a scummy read on Celever due to being called out for bandwagoning. He is really gunning for Sam being mafia here.
Post 459: he thinks Sam will be able to convince the town to lynch who he wants and win that way, reiterates the Sam/Celever scumteam.
And that was his last post, July 21. Also his last day seen on Smogon.
The Diabolic Gift could we PLEASE get a sub for UltrasPlot? He's been inactive for EIGHT DAYS. PokeguyNXB is less of a priority imo because he's at least posting some stuff. This is a completely inactive player.
Analysis: UltrasPlot subbed in for TIK, a player whose 'slam dunk scums' were.. UncleSam and Gale. Over time, UP reneges on Gale but continues to go hard on Sam. This player entity has been against Sam the entire game, and UP has also been against Celever, speculating they are partners.
Sam's response has been "UP is such a cute noobtownie, he's sooo obviously noobtown ^.^" I believe? Reading the guy spitting fire at you all game as most obv noobtown seems like a good way to invalidate his suspicions. This fits in with the narrative I think Sam has been setting up towards me, undermining my 100% towncred whenever he thinks it gets too much. If he can send out his tendrils of doubt, he hopes they'll take root. Sam ALSO did this at the very start where he had that weirdly too-serious post following DLE's obvious jokepost.
That being said, UP is ok with lynching DLE on Day One then Day Two reads him as town. Same with Gale, but DLE is the one who is still alive. And then he continues pushing the Celever/Sam team. Yet he NEVER makes mention of who he thinks the third and fourth scum/other team could be. Is this because he KNOWS who they are, himself and his partner? It's just Sam and Celever, the scumbuddies, the whole game.
The way he so suddenly goes from not being ok with HD's lynch and posting one of the first analyses of why HD is NOT scum, to under ten posts later, Sam has shown him the light!! And he's on board with an HD lynch. This strikes me as sooo suspicious and scummy. And then in another ten posts, "what're we waiting for guise, let's hammer HD!!" After he's spent all this time building up a defense over HD and suspicion over Sam. With the caveat "if HD is town, look at the guys I think are scumbuddies."
Does he believe HD will flip town, because he knows 1/2 the mafians, and thinks so strongly Sam/Celever are the other? And that will allow him to gun for a lynch on Sam or Celever the next day?
I do not at all think he's confused noobtown. I think he knows what he's doing. He's brought up a lot of good points and has defended himself in ways PokeguyNXB and acidphoenix (and Haunted Diamond) have failed to. The one thing missing is a comprehensive reads post, which unfortunately I don't think we will ever be able to get. Whether his criticisms of Sam and Celever are accurate or not, they come from a sound place of analysis.
Conclusion: if UncleSam or Celever flips mafia, this could go either way. If acidphoenix and/or PokeguyNXB flip town, this guy leans way more to mafia for me.
Personally I think he is DLE's partner. The other mafia is thus Celever and U-Turn-Out. Day Two he suddenly reads DLE as town when people had been growing MORE suspicious of DLE. He scumread him at first with no reasoning to try and not buddy.
To me, it feels like he is on one mafia, saw his predecessor went after Sam, and then looked at the game and saw what he thought were connections between Sam and Celever, making them the second mafia because he never speaks of the first (which he is on). The way he suddenly is okay with the HD lynch strikes me as more crafty bandwagon move. Then gets him to L-1.
I do see him playing fairly similarly to me. But without the same towntells I think I have. And he only ever seems to look at one scumteam, I think because he knows the other.
Read: scum.
a. At no point did I buddy or defend Cancerous, what you claim is my #1 scumtell and you didn't address at all. Thus you are considering the past 24 hours in a vacuum which is twisting reality to serve your agenda, and not a town move.
b. You believe if everyone thinks a player is town, they probably are, because it's unlikely everyone would be wrong. Yet now you dislike that philosophy? Because the people/person read isn't you?
c. You agreed with my logic I wouldn't have killed Spiffy. DLE may have used the same, and jumpluff may have refuted it, but it remains my logic. Now you think it'd be possible I killed Spiffy? Bogus.
The fact you have twice now suggested to the town, AFTER I have been read and stated as a consensus town read, I may be someone's partner and tried to push contradicting 'evidence' to support it is what makes me jump onto your case.
You yourself think I am town. If you don't even trust your own reads, what do you trust, and why should we let you have any say?
Yet twice, you have tossed out this little trinket of suggestion when I get read as 'too town' for you or something. You seek to undermine my influence as a townie to the rest of the town. Are you jealous people see me as more likely to be clean than you or something? It's clear you can't gun hard for me being scum because there is simply nothing to support it, but you toss out these ideas anyway.
Thus, making me think you have something to hide or that you don't want me to be able to suss out and people listen. In addition to the fact you ignored the MASSIVE point on Day One about who Haunted Diamond's partner possibly could have been. HD gave NO indication he had a partner. Your only thing to go on was that it was me. Leading to this mislynch.
I admit my #1 target, Gale, would have been a mislynch as well. But for all the "can't read him, null, please spare me!!" reads on Gale at least I was willing to MAKE a read on that guy, and Gale even admitted his behavior made him a solid lynch target. Gale had strategy and intention, HD and acidphoenix are aimless town.
The two of us bickering at this point in time is only a distraction for the town. Neither of us is going to be lynched today and if we do decide we are on different teams, we'll be coming to blows on another day. But I do find you contradicting yourself to suggest this idea and what I perceive as a huge reluctance to let me be seen TOO town when your own read on me is town to be suspicious.
Your point that believing Pokeguy AND acidphoenix are noobtown means there are very slim options for the other two townspeople (besides oneself) is exactly why I think DLE or Celever would be better lynches.
I find them more suspicious than you or Cancerous/jumpluff. If Pokeguy and acidphoenix are noobtown playing poorly, they are almost certainly mafia. If one of Pokeguy or acidphoenix is mafia, they still have pretty good odds of being scum. If both Pokeguy and acidphoenix are mafia, the odds go down they are mafia, sure, but it is still likely enough at least one of them is Pokeguy's partner and responsible for Pokeguy's shift in behavior today.
acidphoenix plays like nobody experienced told him to shape up or gave him any suggestions, after his bad behavior Day One.
Now, regarding UltrasPlot:
Post 237: preliminary reads of: slight scum: US, Gale, HD. slight town: Yeti. call out: DLE for vanishing. null: everyone else.
Post 259: reiteration of slight town Yeti read. reason for HD read: bad vibes. ok with lynching: DLE, Celever, Gale.
Post 260: his top lynch is Celever.
Post 304: he makes some interesting statements:
- I feel like this is just going to go around in circles until someone gets stealthlynched by the mafia... - I don't see how this is possible considering all four scum would have to decide, independently, to vote for someone if the village wasn't stupid and got someone to L-2. They'd be revealed...
- The people that are likely to be lynched today are HD, Pokeguy, Acid, Gale, and Celever. - The people he suggests are the three bandwagoners, low-hanging-fruit Pokeguy and Celever.. who I think stood 0 chance of being lynched Day One due to the bandwagoners. Weird.
- HD lynch gives a better view on me, Pokeguy/acid lynch gives no info - I maintain this would have been false if HD was scum since I am not scum, but otherwise yea, he's right
- Gale lynch, if scum, implies Sam is his partner - because Sam would have been trying to get the lynch off Gale onto HD
- Celever lynch gives info on Gale and Sam - he feels Sam was again trying to shift the lynch away from Celever and onto HD
- Suspicion over Sam - basically he thinks Sam was possibly trying to guide Gale and defend Celever while also gunning for the lynch on HD
Post 321: he calls out Sam for ignoring his post.
Post 324: he responds to Celever's post, in which Celever states his #2 lynch target is.. UltrasPlot. He now connects more that Celever and Sam defend each other and both want to push the lynch on HD so people ignore them. Definitely scumreading Celever.
Post 326: he pressure votes UncleSam because he doesn't believe there is a good case for the HD lynch (I agree) and Sam hasn't replied to him. He gives several reasons why he doesn't think HD is mafia as well.
Post 334: a really weird and instant reversal. Suddenly, after UncleSam posts, he agrees HD is the best lynch today. But, "If he flips town though we should really take a deeper look at both him and Celever."
Post 344: isn't certain what we're waiting for in hammering HD.
Post 359: votes HD for L-1.
Post 387: call out for Sam/Celever after the mislynch.
Post 391: agrees with Gale's ever-so-faulty idea to let noobs lynch. town reads: Gale and DLE. scum reads: Sam and Celever.
Post 453: he believes the ButteredToast kill was a smart-scum reverse psychology kill. Then he suggests a town-read experienced player be lynched. Rightfully calls out Sam trying to lynch Pokeguy is a repeat of yesterday, so he votes Sam.
Post 455: calls Sam out for 'safe posts' and safe discussion topics, after he mislynched. Believes Sam has switched to a scummy read on Celever due to being called out for bandwagoning. He is really gunning for Sam being mafia here.
Post 459: he thinks Sam will be able to convince the town to lynch who he wants and win that way, reiterates the Sam/Celever scumteam.
And that was his last post, July 21. Also his last day seen on Smogon.
The Diabolic Gift could we PLEASE get a sub for UltrasPlot? He's been inactive for EIGHT DAYS. PokeguyNXB is less of a priority imo because he's at least posting some stuff. This is a completely inactive player.
Analysis: UltrasPlot subbed in for TIK, a player whose 'slam dunk scums' were.. UncleSam and Gale. Over time, UP reneges on Gale but continues to go hard on Sam. This player entity has been against Sam the entire game, and UP has also been against Celever, speculating they are partners.
Sam's response has been "UP is such a cute noobtownie, he's sooo obviously noobtown ^.^" I believe? Reading the guy spitting fire at you all game as most obv noobtown seems like a good way to invalidate his suspicions. This fits in with the narrative I think Sam has been setting up towards me, undermining my 100% towncred whenever he thinks it gets too much. If he can send out his tendrils of doubt, he hopes they'll take root. Sam ALSO did this at the very start where he had that weirdly too-serious post following DLE's obvious jokepost.
That being said, UP is ok with lynching DLE on Day One then Day Two reads him as town. Same with Gale, but DLE is the one who is still alive. And then he continues pushing the Celever/Sam team. Yet he NEVER makes mention of who he thinks the third and fourth scum/other team could be. Is this because he KNOWS who they are, himself and his partner? It's just Sam and Celever, the scumbuddies, the whole game.
The way he so suddenly goes from not being ok with HD's lynch and posting one of the first analyses of why HD is NOT scum, to under ten posts later, Sam has shown him the light!! And he's on board with an HD lynch. This strikes me as sooo suspicious and scummy. And then in another ten posts, "what're we waiting for guise, let's hammer HD!!" After he's spent all this time building up a defense over HD and suspicion over Sam. With the caveat "if HD is town, look at the guys I think are scumbuddies."
Does he believe HD will flip town, because he knows 1/2 the mafians, and thinks so strongly Sam/Celever are the other? And that will allow him to gun for a lynch on Sam or Celever the next day?
I do not at all think he's confused noobtown. I think he knows what he's doing. He's brought up a lot of good points and has defended himself in ways PokeguyNXB and acidphoenix (and Haunted Diamond) have failed to. The one thing missing is a comprehensive reads post, which unfortunately I don't think we will ever be able to get. Whether his criticisms of Sam and Celever are accurate or not, they come from a sound place of analysis.
Conclusion: if UncleSam or Celever flips mafia, this could go either way. If acidphoenix and/or PokeguyNXB flip town, this guy leans way more to mafia for me.
Personally I think he is DLE's partner. The other mafia is thus Celever and U-Turn-Out. Day Two he suddenly reads DLE as town when people had been growing MORE suspicious of DLE. He scumread him at first with no reasoning to try and not buddy.
To me, it feels like he is on one mafia, saw his predecessor went after Sam, and then looked at the game and saw what he thought were connections between Sam and Celever, making them the second mafia because he never speaks of the first (which he is on). The way he suddenly is okay with the HD lynch strikes me as more crafty bandwagon move. Then gets him to L-1.
I do see him playing fairly similarly to me. But without the same towntells I think I have. And he only ever seems to look at one scumteam, I think because he knows the other.
Read: scum.
The fact that literally every contribution he has made indicates he's mafia over:
ok. This makes sense.jumpluff said:
In addition what the hell was wrong about wanting a U Turn flip? Your only major disagreement with it is that you look like mafia if he is mafia, which is explicitly true. There's a damn good reason you call him out as mafia and then go "but I don't want to lynch you": because there is little to no defending Walrein/U Turn's play as town.
I don't post up 3 "This person is certain town" reads in a 13 man game when I'm mafia. I was wrong on Spiffy when he was playing entirely different than normal without much explanation on his part. I'm fairly sure at least 7 of the people alive agree on my read on Walrein/U Turn, a read that I was the first to push and explain.
And then comes in the argument that I'm Walrein's partner. Yes. It's all so clear now.
I'm sorry I cannot take this lynch seriously; lynching me is absolutely atrocious.
This is exactly how a partner who has little to no express reason to outright town read their scummy partner would play the day: pray that the partner survives this lynch and just push other reads harder tomorrow. Walrein ignores Cancerous and calls him town. Cancerous ignores Walrein and either calls him town or completely avoided him I can't really remember. Saying you were the most likely partner was more out of a "A ha" from reading through your recent posts than some large development I've been believing forever -- it was just the first partner with Walrein that outright clicked based on how you decided to play the day in trying to cushion him into giving reads on the premise of "he can give us more info/tells," a premise which is silly if we already have reason enough to lynch him.
This is literally what you are doing with U Turn.
At least you admit it.
He subbed out from getting mad about Gale or for being attacked or something; I just remember it was out of frustration out of something that occurred during the day. And I really don't know TIK that well either but I feel like the meta/behavior read on him is solid despite that.
I've admittedly not really been looking in UltrasPlot's more recent posts for scumtells because I was already pretty much convinced the dude was town; I'll go through them later if they're really that alarming, but I didn't pick up on much that fit outside of the idea of trying to be proactice (barring a drop in activity recently) and having independent and strong reads.
Except for the part where you admit that the basis of the U Turn/you scumteam is super legit, which is the large part of my recent focus onto you. My original Cancerous read was largely just a gut reaction read that you and no one else have done anything to dispute the reasons behind. Cancerous reacted in exactly the same way Walrein did in dismissing accusations against him as unimportant rather than untrue, something you yourself argued you found Walrein scummy for (if I remember correctly). What part of my read on you is not "solid" besides the argument "but I know I'm town :("?
I already argued that my Cancerous read was a gut read and I already tried to articulate it on page 20 or 21. No one else bought it then, no one else seems to be buying it now. I'm not going to waste my time on a lynch on someone I'm less sure is mafia than U Turn or Celever.
Part 1 is based off the fact there are only 9 people. I don't see Yeti with anyone even if I find her play to not be obvtown, I am largely convinced UltrasPlot is town, I know I'm town, and now that I'm in the camp of thinking pokeguy is noobtown, that leaves only 1 player left that can be town between pluff/celever/sam/u turn/acid. Of those I've lightly townread sam, making my top 4 scum reads the remaining uturn celever pluff acid. By definition I would need to include one of sam/yeti/plot/pokeguy into being a scumread. Sam makes the most sense out of those 4. I probably can and should re-evaluate on sam before the lynch considering I don't think acid/celever makes much sense. But with a U Turn lynch it makes it way way more likely that Sam is mafia, largely due to process of elimination but also due to how I think that mafia!Sam would make a point to direct a lynch away from his partner on day 2 which that would make the world where his play of pushing acid/me later on today over Celever more likely. The added benefit of being able to see if my gut read on pluff+u turn on a mafia flip makes me even more so want to see said flip.
Your later characterization of how I want a U Turn lynch "just for the flip" is ridiculous and would be as ridiculous for making the same argument about you for saying
being a reason to lynch me. My point is that waiting on information from U Turn is silly and unimportant considering we get enough information from it outright anywayjumpluff said:
I've been slightly busy but honestly it's more just a case of not caring that much about the game because of getting into a rut of not as actively pushing people.
How little effort I've put into the day has literally 0 to do with how I want the day to play out. It wouldn't matter if the game were 2 villagers to 4, I would want to lynch a mafian. We were probably lynching a mafian until you/pluff decided in a moment of either paranoia or opportunity to try voting for me despite me being town all fucking game, having fantastic town reads, and adding pressure to literally every player that people think is currently mafia bar myself. I've laid out the arguments for a U Turn lynch, a jumpluff lynch, and to a lesser extent a Celever lynch because everyone else had already said the exact same shit I would have said bar some additional stuff that everyone seemed to ignore on day 2.
Mafia are going to attempt to hit another mafia tonight if they aren't stupid (or have a good doctor read) regardless of if we hit on this lynch or not. If we hit on the lynch it's a 1v2 and the 2 wants to eliminate the 1 to turn it into a game where the mafia just needs to appear town enough not to die. If we miss on the lynch it's a 2v2 and if it turns into a 2v1 during the night the 2 can more easily swing a lynch onto the 1 and away from themselves. Fire and Ice games are naturally really swingy and not particularly try hard set ups.
Anyway screw this I'm taking over you guys are bad or mafia.
Unvote
Vote U Turn Out
I have no idea who I was voting before this but this is who the lynch needs to be on. The wishy washy seesawing is ridiculously apparent and has been from the moment Walrein opened his mouth on day 2, add in the atrocious dismissal and ignoring of any and all suspicion placed on him and this is way too obvious. The fact that no one else seems to have the balls to push this read anymore based on waiting for him to post more as if it isn't clear as fucking vodka that this dude is mafia is depressing as all hell.
Yeti why do you think Sam goes from calling me his strongest town to throwing shade on me at the point in the game where he did
jumpluff convince me not to lynch your partner
How little effort I've put into the day has literally 0 to do with how I want the day to play out. It wouldn't matter if the game were 2 villagers to 4, I would want to lynch a mafian. We were probably lynching a mafian until you/pluff decided in a moment of either paranoia or opportunity to try voting for me despite me being town all fucking game, having fantastic town reads, and adding pressure to literally every player that people think is currently mafia bar myself. I've laid out the arguments for a U Turn lynch, a jumpluff lynch, and to a lesser extent a Celever lynch because everyone else had already said the exact same shit I would have said bar some additional stuff that everyone seemed to ignore on day 2.
Mafia are going to attempt to hit another mafia tonight if they aren't stupid (or have a good doctor read) regardless of if we hit on this lynch or not. If we hit on the lynch it's a 1v2 and the 2 wants to eliminate the 1 to turn it into a game where the mafia just needs to appear town enough not to die. If we miss on the lynch it's a 2v2 and if it turns into a 2v1 during the night the 2 can more easily swing a lynch onto the 1 and away from themselves. Fire and Ice games are naturally really swingy and not particularly try hard set ups.
Anyway screw this I'm taking over you guys are bad or mafia.
Unvote
Vote U Turn Out
I have no idea who I was voting before this but this is who the lynch needs to be on. The wishy washy seesawing is ridiculously apparent and has been from the moment Walrein opened his mouth on day 2, add in the atrocious dismissal and ignoring of any and all suspicion placed on him and this is way too obvious. The fact that no one else seems to have the balls to push this read anymore based on waiting for him to post more as if it isn't clear as fucking vodka that this dude is mafia is depressing as all hell.
Yeti why do you think Sam goes from calling me his strongest town to throwing shade on me at the point in the game where he did
jumpluff convince me not to lynch your partner
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