NOC Paranoia Mafia Game Over - Mafia Wins

[Texas Cloverleaf]

Flyhn: what the hell, only 13 posts although they are mostly content posts

First real post at #107 makes reads based mostly on meta. Town reads, me/walrein/former/blazade, slight scum reads hawkie post hawkie v pancake and lynches Dentricos to pressure before switching over to a pressure on haruno at #139 after Dentricos responds. States general positions at #237, the reaction feels genuine to me and I get positive vibes from it. Reclarifies at #250, same as before. Says he'll make a big post at #491 on Saturday but never does. Post above this is most recent.

Conclusion: Idler is idler. I get a towny vibe from his posts but there's little concrete to go off of. Soft-null with town undercurrent.

 

[Wayan Vistar]

And now Texas is doing the work I was gonna do (ISOing many people at once.. except difference is they're doing literally everyone)

RIP Massive post. This is what I get for being easily addicted to games. I just wasted my entire free weekend -_-

Sub me. I don't trust myself enough to stay active (probably gonna waste more time with Overwatch after this, then weekdays are scholl), and I don't have the energy to do this like I originally thought I did. Sorry ;-;

Remind me only to do NOC in the summer from now on

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

Former Hope: Early game set up spec, tries to push out of RVS at #30 which Walrein has claimed is towny. More set up spec, pushes Hawkie at #58. Reiterates Hawkie at #98, is the first to mention the possibility of a Walrein mole while town reading blazade and possibly twin. Yet more set up spec, then brings up an excellent point at #164 that Haruno is flip-flopping on his reasoning and looking for an excuse to vote FH, a common theme in Haruno's behaviour. NAI for FH though. Pushes inactivity lynches until #278 where he posts some meta reasoning on terrorists behaviour and a critique of Hawkie's play which I personally quite liked at the time, I though it was very pro-town reasoning so this leans towny for me. #286 is along similar lines and uses reasoning similar to my own about probability and states of mind where x is more likely to occur. Interestingly, hasn't posted any specific reads of players to this point except for targeting Hawkie over his interactions with Aubisio. Votes beta at #326 in a continuation of his theme of targeting idlers.

Point of note here at #359, Former never jumps on the pancake wagon but comes out to say he doesn't mind it. Food for thought for those thinking a pancake wagoner has to be scum.

More set up spec at #433 and concern over Walreins lack of posting at #436. Then posts... nothing of consequence until #585 and 588. Odd. Buddies twin's iso of me and scum reads without any concrete reads of his own and tries to protect himself by saying that blazade thought that him vs haruno was tvt. This smells super fishy to me, like he's trying to use blazade's town cred to protect himself and haruno while also keeping his distance from Haruno a bit.

Conclusion: I smell a rat. Former has spent approximately 70% of his posts talking about what mafia would do with their kills and who we should deal with voting strategies. He has not generated any content or reads of his own, he's buddied people the whole way, and he's generally tried to appear active without contributing. His only significant conflict is with haruno which he then later reinforces unprompted which, considering I think haruno is scum, looks like it's extremely likely to be an attempt to distance themselves from each other. His only real pressures have been on inactives which is as safe as safe gets as well as linking Walrein to DLE in order to spread scum confusion over him. The more I think over these posts the worse they look and the more suspicious they get. Strong scum lean.

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

Conclusion of conclusions:

Dentricos: Strong town lean
Haruno: Moderate scum lean
Josh: Hard null with slight town lean
Hawkie: Mild town lean
rssp1: Mild town lean with need for more content from a strong potential contributor
Aubisio: Moderate scum lean
Walrein: Moderate town lean
Twin: Hard null with slight town lean
OM Room: Soft null with slight town lean
Flyhn: Soft null with slight town lean
Former Hope: Strong scum lean

At this point my scum likelihood goes Former Hope -> Haruno -> Aubisio -> OM Room -> Josh=Twin=Flyhn -> Hawkie -> rssp1 -> Walrein -> Dentricos -> Me

After finishing the Former Hope iso I'm extremely confident that they are scum and am highly confident that Haruno and Former are a scum team

Either of them would be acceptable lynches, I think Former is showing himself to be clearly the scummier of the two and other people have suspected him as well making him the safer target, while Haruno is the more informative target but also slightly riskier.

For now, Unvote Lynch Former Hope and I'll make any final revisions to that if necessary at 6 PM

 

[OM]

Ok first of all; I'm going ahead and stating that texas is town. This is literally the same meta he had as town in the last game I played with him; and he ended up being a power role. Literally going exact same way too; so it could be possible set up but otherwise he's like 80-20 town; especially with his ISO's backing him up. <-- already read him before but just confirming

Let me explain rssp1 / josh / walrein a bit here.

rssp1 is just overall super helpful for town; with content that suggests it even more. He's been good at pressuring and reading and honestly all his logic is sound. He may of died off a bit lately, but that doesn't mean what he did before should be ignored.

Josh is just a bit everywhere; but his logic connects at some points, but falls in later ones. Overall the impression given is a chill town player who knows what he's doing; but doesn't matter if he's lynched or not otherwise then that we lose a town player; predicting him to be a VT instead of a power role.

Walrein... Just has good overall content really. None of his posts scream scum, his d1 posts were thought out and reflective and only say scum in the subtlest of ways. I guess Josh picked up on that? I haven't read the last two pages so idk who else is reading him.

Still reading aubisio since he kind of acknowledged my reasoning then died so yeah.

OM Room: what the hell only 10 posts? After betathunder's 2?

Again, I shouldn't really have to protect myself for beta's stuff !_!

 

[Texas Cloverleaf]

Again, I shouldn't really have to protect myself for beta's stuff !_!

My commentary about you was only on your stuff, 10 posts is absurdly low and considering I flagged haruno for 19 you get flagged for 10 11

 

[rssp1]

fuck dl is in 3 hours
ill start catching up now

 

[Thetwinmasters]

Twin: Not sure how much of a point there is on analyzing his early game, it's pretty much just lynches and unvotes which is typical for him. Questions Hawkie at #56 which started the pressure on him. Lynches me at #101 with logic that I don't personally like but is consistent with his past town games (this is a common theme, he and I are oil and water). Same thing at #148 and #150. Posts his first scum list at #170 without reasoning as per usual. Continues to tunnel me at #189. Suggests that pancake and Hawkie are not SvS at #266 based on gut and then immediately follows up with a Hawkie lynch but backtracks at #300. Pressures Former at #289 consistently with past behaviour. Dislikes and votes Pancake at #307, yet again without reasoning. Questions the beta scum at #329 but then votes Josh for defending him at #351 which is odd and contradictory. Comes back to a lynch on me at #364 which is reinforced at #368 then goes to Former Hope here but then comes back to me again at deadline to try and be meaningful after stating dislike of pancake lynch. Once again votes without any substantial reasoning with a lynch on hawkie d2 at #399 and for I think the first time ever asks someone to explain themselves nicely at #409. Explains his deadline vote logic just fine at #428. Is concerned over the FH lynch at #432 due to the vote pushers identities. Reinforces his push on me at #441 and pushes #Haruno at #442. Does little over the next few posts, basically a repeat of early game with trying to push people for activity plus a slight defense of Walrein. At #481 is pushing me and Haruno together which he reiterates on Haruno at #500. Reactionary lynches Josh at #503 once again without reasoning. Continues to pressure Haruno at #511 which does actually spark some discussion on/from him, then comes back to me yet again, yet again without reasoning at #522 (his reasoning is that I voted haruno for pressure then went back to aubisio after haruno posted). More tunnel at #539 and then links OM Room and Josh as alignments at #539 (twin if you could go more into depth on this that would be awesome because this could be crucial if one of them dies). Posts his iso on me at #556 yet again with logic I don't like but that is consistent with his meta. A lot of bias, a lot of tunnel, a lot of confirmation bias. Consistent with his push on me, looking forward to him eating crow on it. Last post is calling Haruno's response to my iso an OMGUS

Conclusion: For a guy with so many posts this is a really short paragraph. Which is actually a proxy for twin's posts in general. Whereas Walrein looks better in isolation twin looks a lot worse. In the early game I felt like he was being helpful to the town and he was inasfar as pushing activity but his posts have been almost entirely contentless barring his tunnel on me. On the other hand he's been consistent with his previous town play. This is a really hard read but I'm getting similar vibes to Josh, hard null with slight town undercurrent.

Because josh is hard core defending om room and there is only a potential strong link if om room flips scum first if josh flips scum it isn't as strong for om room being scum

 

[Thetwinmasters]

Also just saying texas wasn't town last game he was a neutral who had to get 1 person killed and that isn't the same. Also I doubt haruno+FH because in the last noc haruno was scum he either ignored or defended his scumbuddies

 

[Former]

Honestly, I find it weird that Texas A. ISO'd me last when he claimed it was in order of the player list and then B. starts trying to push me as mafia as soon as it was shown that I was tied for in the lead for the lynch. All in all, that screams super scummy and my lynch will stay on them.

 

[rssp1]

Also didn't hawkie and flyhn say they were making a big post then just suddenly disappear once people stopped talking about them.

Flyhn said he was busy (and now he's subbing out rip lol)
Hawkie disappeared randomly, i'd ask him to post when i see him on PS if I was allowed to do that

I see the Josh/OM Room buddying as well, and if anything it points to Josh being more likely as scum and doesn't really say anything about OM Room (scum have buddied both town and other scum in games i've played before).

Haruno/Aubisio are really only posting when they're pushed to do so, so i'd honestly prefer to lynch one of those two since that's more of a scum trait than anything.

I don't like the Texas/FH lynches for the sole reason that I seriously cannot get a read on either; they keep fluctuating between slight town, null, and slight scum. Texas's latest posts have been useful, but for me still NAI. Lynching FH When he had the second most lynches to him (I believe this is true) is also weird.

Going to Lynch Aubisio for now, will change my lynch if this one isnt going to make a difference at the end of the day

Tagging Da Letter El and Steven Snype to request a votecount pls and ty

 

[rssp1]

Ok so what i'm seeing rn is that people want to lynch between walrein, haruno, former hope, aubisio, and texas. Can everyone put what order they'd like to see these people lynched (if you're one of these people don't include yourself lol) and why if the reasoning isnt clear?

For me it's Aubisio -> Haruno -> Texas/FH -> Walrein
Aubisio and Haruno are in the same boat, but I feel like Haruno's posts have been more useful compared to Aubisio
I feel like Walrein's defense has been super townie although his scumminess from before still stands. However, atm I don't think i'd like to see a lynch on him.

 

[rssp1]

If you have other people you want to see lynched aside from those 5 include them ofc
or if i missed someone multiple people have expressed an interest in lynching include them too, this was just off the top of my head

 

[Da Letter El]

VOTE COUNT 2.2

Texas Cloverleaf (3): thetwinmasters, Former Hope, Haruno
Former Hope (2): Hawkie, Texas Cloverleaf
Aubisio (2): OM Room, rssp1
Walrein (1): Josh
Flyhn (1): Dentricos
Haruno (1): Walrein
Not voting (2): Aubisio, Flyhn

12 alive

 

[Thetwinmasters]

Texas>Aubisio>Haruno>FH/Hawkie>Walrein

 

[rssp1]

reasoning for Hawkie is that he disappeared randomly I assume? Do you have any other reasons to not want to lynch Walrein aside from his defense (asking in case I missed something as well)

 

[rssp1]

tagging the rest of the pl to get their thoughts
If you don't post here and you didnt say that you wouldnt be here for dl ahead of time I think this should be treated as disappearing near eod (aka likely scum)

1. Dentricos
2. Haruno
3. Josh
4. Hawkie
5. Walrein
6. Former Hope
7. OM room
8. Aubisio
9. Flyhn
10. Texas Cloverleaf

 

[rssp1]

im a failure

1. Dentricos
2. Haruno
3. Josh
4. Hawkie
5. Walrein
6. Former Hope
7. OM room
8. Aubisio
9. Flyhn
10. Texas Cloverleaf

 

[Dentricos]

**Unlynch flyhn**

He requested sub. I've been busy.

 

[Dentricos]

Fml unlynch flyhn

 

[Former]

I'm not sure I'm liking Rssp's move here, but alright.

Texas, Aubisio, Walrein /Haruno.

Why anyone would lynch me at this point in the game is beyond me considering there are people far scummier than I.

 

[rssp1]

I want to know where everyone's head is at. It also gives people accountability for the next day. Can you all include some reasoning behind the reads if they're not obvious already, please? I have my own opinions on these 5, but I want to know what other people think. Nobody learns anything if you just give the list, include why you have the list in that way if you haven't already talked about it before.

 

[Dentricos]

Guh I dont want to lynch texas even though I scumlean him... he is contributing a lot and is actually putting effort into the game unlike a lot of people.

 

[Da Letter El]

deadline in an hour fam

 

[rssp1]

dentricos who would you want to lynch then