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While I do think Ignus brings up some good points here, I will disagree with the general sentiment of the post, as it makes one major assumption that I don't really agree with: that it is better to not be mega evolved than mega evolved if you don't need a single specific aspect of the mega evolution. In fact, I would argue that, for Pokemon holding a mega stone, it is the exact opposite that is usually the case: that it is always better to mega evolve as soon as possible unless there is a specific aspect of the base form that you absolutely need. Yes, Regenerator is a good ability, but so is Magic Guard, and unless there is a very specific reason you don't want to mega evolve right away, getting whatever extra speed, bulk and power the mega evolution will provide will almost always be more useful than Regenerator, and the above post fails to take certain important things into account. For example there is the fact that a base form will be taking Head Smash recoil. Regenerator helps there, but it does not negate it, especially when in certain situations you are using the move to KO a Pokemon outright AFTER taking one or more attacks from it. Furthermore, it ignores the fact that, depending on spread, we may very well be getting significantly better bulk as well after mega evolution, not just speed, meaning that if the opponent stays in and attacks, it will be doing less damage.
Now, with that said, while I think the base assumptions are off, I do think the post brings up good points about speed in general. We absolutely do need to take into account that we start in our base form and not our mega form, and that a speed difference there is absolutely crucial. If you do have an increase in speed, you should absolutely talk about why you chose what you chose. I mean, you should do that for everything, but this is an especially important one. I am not going to say that one way of doing things is any better than another, but I am going to say that you need to have a good reason for doing whatever you do.
Base Stats 79 HP / 103 ATK / 80 DEF / 65 SPA / 132 SPD / 101 SPE / 560 BST
PT 115.50 (170) / PS 158.35 (180) / ST 191.63 (195) / SS 105.91 (145) / BSR 311.01 (325)
Mega Stats 79 HP / 125 ATK / 80 DEF / 65 SPA / 166 SPD / 145 SPE / 660 BST
PT 115.50 (170) / PS 220.85 (230) / ST 239.85 (240) / SS 113.52 (145) / BSR 387.66 (410)
(+22 ATK / +34 SPD / +44 SPE)
145 Speed, Speed in General
145 Speed is... fast. It's set to be able to, at 252 Jolly, beat a +1 Jolly Mega Altaria. It doesn't lose to much (Mega Alakazam is notable though). This also allows Adamant CAP21 to beat Adamant +1 Mega Altaria. We also (When Adamant) beat Weavile (Useful, as otherwise it could KO with Icicle Crash followed by Ice Shard). Normally I wouldn't advocate such a high speed spread, but given that our main characteristic in the mega is "Powerful, Inaccurate attacks", I want us to be at very least able to use those attacks as often as possible. I've noticed a few people mention that we should be behind Lati@s, but they do threaten us by virtue of the fact that Psyshock OHKOs us. It's not perfect on the threatlist (we OHKO with Head Smash), but it's as close as feasible for our other counters.
101 Base Speed was selected to give us a nice slot above Manaphy (Who we want to beat), and below Garchomp (Who should look in our general direction and KO us). Naturally has to be slower than 145 Speed - does anyone want a 103 ATK / 145 Spe banded mon running around the place with Regen? Guessing no. The speed change notably hops over non-Scarf Keldeo, which (apart from Magic Guard Head Smash with our low HP) is a great motivator to MEvo.
Physical Attack
125 ATK is lower than your average, but given we will definitely have access to Gunk Shot and Head Smash, I don't think we have to aim too high. Set to give us a reliable OHKO on Keldeo with Wood Hammer, should Stealth Rock be active. Since we outspeed Specs variants, and Scarf variants do not deal that much damage to us, this is high enough for us to prevent Keldeo from being too problematic.
103 on the base is low, but I wanted to avoid BandCAP from being the big picture.
Special Bulk
Pretty much as high as possible - we're able to tank a Keldeo's Specs Scald, and we can take one of it's Scarf'd attacks. Notably often KOed by Magnezone's Flash Cannon, even with such a high amount of bulk. Not that we can do anything to Magnezone bar 3HKO it.
Despite being so high, this doesn't interfere with our Counters. As said, Magnezone laughs at us, and other Steel Types are more partial to their ATK. Psychic-types have access to Psyshock, whilst Ground Types KO us by breathing in our general vicinity.
Physical Bulk
Frail (Well, sorta). Scizor's Bullet Punch KOs us 81.3% of the time. Notably Talonflame can't 2HKO us unless it's banded (Which make up a nice 11% of them according to TIBot), which is mostly safe as we OHKO back many times over.
HP Specific
It's a little bit low - this is because I don't want us to be able to, in base form, spam Head Smash. 4 EVs give us 300 HP, which gives us 100 HP per Regenerator, whilst our Substitutes are easily broken.
Adamant 4 HP / 252 ATK / 252 Speed unless otherwise stated. Assuming Head Smash, Gunk Shot, and Wood Hammer.
... right, Wood Hammer. I've included Wood Hammer as a coverage option already, as it's important for calcs vs Water Types, who we should be inclined to threaten. Head Smash usually does enough, but for a few matchups (Keldeo), it's insubstantial.
Offensive-Base:
Gunk Shot OHKOs:
Azumarill (Easily vs 252/0 Azu)
Specs Sylveon (88.8 - 105% on bulkier variants)
Head Smash OHKOs:
Talonflame
Charizard (And its two megas)
Tornadus-T
I really don't think we should be attacking whilst in the base form too often, but the OHKOs are worth noting.
Offensive-Mega:
Gunk Shot OHKOs:
Azumarill (240/0 variant, always OHKOs anything below 252/184, at worst 95 - 111.8 on 252/252 which is not a thing 9.9)
Sylveon (Except 252/252+ variants, which we occasionally only deal 99.4% -.-)
Head Smash OHKOs:
Talonflame
Charizard (And its two megas)
Tornadus-T
Mega Altaria
252+ Atk CAP21 Gunk Shot vs. 248 HP / 136+ Def Mega Altaria: 312-368 (88.3 - 104.2%) -- 31.3% chance to OHKO (Defensive Dragon Dance)
252+ Atk CAP21 Gunk Shot vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Mega Altaria: 386-456 (109.3 - 129.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO (Special Attacker)
We always KO Offensive and Special Attacker variants, and we 2HKO other varieties.
Clefable
252+ Atk CAP21 Gunk Shot vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Clefable: 368-434 (93.6 - 110.4%) -- 56.3% chance to OHKO
252+ Atk CAP21 Gunk Shot vs. 252 HP / 172 Def Clefable: 440-518 (111.6 - 131.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO
We OHKO many variants, and Clefable is really not able to respond regardless.
Garchomp (Mega)
252+ Atk CAP21 Wood Hammer vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Mega Garchomp: 124-147 (34.7 - 41.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252+ Atk CAP21 Head Smash vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Mega Garchomp: 116-137 (32.4 - 38.3%) -- 98% chance to 3HKO
Garchomp can switch in and reliably force us out.
Keldeo
252+ Atk CAP21 Wood Hammer vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Keldeo: 304-358 (94.1 - 110.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock [62.5% Otherwise]
252+ Atk CAP21 Gunk Shot vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Keldeo: 228-268 (70.5 - 82.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
The key line for the set, the reliable Wood Hammer KO with SR Damage (Jolly gets a 50:50 with Stealth Rock, or a 12.5% Chance otherwise)
Mandibuzz
252+ Atk CAP21 Head Smash vs. 248 HP / 136+ Def Mandibuzz: 402-474 (95 - 112%) -- 68.8% chance to OHKO
Needs SR up to be KOing reliably, but without still puts Mandibuzz into the range where Wood Hammer is able to clean up.
Manaphy
252+ Atk CAP21 Wood Hammer vs. 240 HP / 252+ Def Manaphy: 202-238 (50.3 - 59.3%) -- 78.5% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk CAP21 Wood Hammer vs. 96 HP / 0 Def Manaphy: 280-330 (76.7 - 90.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Struggles slightly vs CM variants, but they only 3HKO. 2HKOs every other variant, and outspeeds them.
Politoed
252+ Atk CAP21 Wood Hammer vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Politoed: 354-418 (92.4 - 109.1%) -- 56.3% chance to OHKO
We outspeed, we whack it, we only get 2HKOd.
Rotom-W
252+ Atk CAP21 Head Smash vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Rotom-W: 180-213 (59.4 - 70.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk CAP21 Wood Hammer vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Rotom-W: 192-228 (63.3 - 75.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk CAP21 Gunk Shot vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Rotom-W: 144-171 (47.5 - 56.4%) -- 31.3% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Included the Head Smash here to show that Rotom-W can't even rely on switching in vs Head Smash, since that'll, well, smash it. Even if it switches into a Gunk Shot, we can likely KO it.
Physically Defensive (Inc. Psyshocks):
I'm making the liberal assumption that EQs will KO us. More specifically, vs 4/0 EQs from an attack stat of 203, you always KO. Specially offensive Mega Altaria has 230, for comparison. EQ. Will. KO. Us.
Alakazam (Mega)
252 SpA Mega Alakazam Psyshock vs. 4 HP / 0 Def CAP21: 392-464 (130.6 - 154.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
Not many Mega Alakazam run Psyshock, but the ones that do unsurprisingly KO us.
Azumarill
252+ Atk Huge Power Azumarill Aqua Jet vs. 4 HP / 0 Def CAP21: 192-228 (64 - 76%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Huge Power Azumarill Aqua Jet vs. 4 HP / 0 Def CAP21: 288-342 (96 - 114%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO
Azumarill was awkward, given I wanted MScizor to be often OHKOing us unless we invest. We can tank Azumarill's Aqua Jet on non-CB variants, and Azu isn't able to happily switch into us - Gunk Shot outright KOs, whilst Head Smash and Wood Hammer KO over 50% of the time when SR is up.
Power Whip (49.3% - 58.3%) almost always 2HKOs and is unsafe to switch in vs.
Scizor (Mega)
252+ Atk Technician Mega Scizor Bullet Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def CAP21: 288-342 (96 - 114%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO
Given we're already really specially bulky, I want MScizor to be difficult for CAP21. Forces us to switch out, putting it politely ^^'
Slowbro (Mega)
4 SpA Mega Slowbro Psyshock vs. 4 HP / 0 Def CAP21: 260-308 (86.6 - 102.6%) -- 18.8% chance to OHKO
93.6% if SR is up.
Talonflame
252+ Atk Life Orb Talonflame Brave Bird vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Ditto: 122-144 (40.6 - 48%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Talonflame Brave Bird vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Ditto: 141-167 (47 - 55.6%) -- 76.2% chance to 2HKO
As mentioned earlier, Talonflame (Except Banded) never 2HKOs us without boosting. Banded Talonflame isn't able to freely switch in either.
Specially Defensive-Base:
The base SpD isn't particularly important, it's set high to be able to switch into most attacks taking little damage. Most notable is vs Manaphy,
252+ SpA Manaphy Surf vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD CAP21: 212-252 (70.6 - 84%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
We're able to switch in vs a Manaphy that's been only slightly weakened, and we immediately force it out
Specially Defensive-Mega:
Keldeo
252 SpA Choice Specs Keldeo Hydro Pump vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD CAP21: 344-408 (114.6 - 136%) -- guaranteed OHKO 252 SpA Choice Specs Keldeo Scald vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD CAP21: 252-296 (84 - 98.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Keldeo Scald vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD CAP21: 168-200 (56 - 66.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Keldeo Hydro Pump vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD CAP21: 230-272 (76.6 - 90.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Important calc in bold. Being able to tank that hit allows us to retaliate, even if we are only Mega Evolving that action - and Wood Hammer OHKOs if SR is up, and 62.5% of the time besides.
Manaphy
252+ SpA Manaphy Surf vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD CAP21: 174-206 (58 - 68.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Unboosted Manaphy at best 2HKOs us
Slowbro (Mega)
4 SpA Mega Slowbro Scald vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD CAP21: 140-168 (46.6 - 56%) -- 75.4% chance to 2HKO
There's not much we can do vs Mega Slowbro - side effect of being weak to a mon and attacking the wrong stat.
Slowbro
0 SpA Slowbro Scald vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD CAP21: 114-134 (38 - 44.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
Avoiding the 2HKO here is very much useful, as we can strike back with Head Smash (44.9-52.7) or Wood Hammer (48.2-56.8). This just needs Stealth Rock and we can 2HKO Slowbro, whilst avoiding being KOed
Special Attack
Page me when we give this thing Light of Ruin :|
Hey everyone! I have to say that I'm impressed with the submissions and WIPs here so far. That being said, I have a few general comments that I'd like to make as we progress through the submission phase.
Speed - Ignus and jas have both brought up some good points on Speed earlier in this thread, and you should check out their posts here and here if you haven't done so already. If your submission includes a change in the Speed stat upon Mega Evolution, your justification behind this will incredibly important in terms of consideration for the slate. This means going beyond "CAP 21 outspeeds X threat in base form, and can outspeed Y threat in Mega form." Anyone with the most basic understanding of OU Speed tiers can see this just by looking at the stat. So my question to you is: why? Why is this change necessary and/or beneficial to CAP 21 as a whole, and how does it affect the justification of using the base or the Mega form over the other? This is especially important for submissions that don't see much of an increase in Attack, and have comparable damage output (in several cases, even a higher damage output for the base form holding an item) as a result.
Submissions that come close to multiple stat bias limits - First off, this isn't necessarily a bad thing, just take note that I'm going to be examining these spreads with even more scrutiny as a result. At the moment, we have a slew of offensively potent spreads in terms of Attack and Speed, we have some extremely bulky spreads that can tank some really impressive hits on both the physical and the special side. I'll reiterate that the entire point of stat bias limits isn't to see how close you can get to as many of them as you can without going over, they only exist as ceilings and guidelines.
If you cannot justify your stats legitimately and have not proven that you aren't just making the best stats within the limits, you will not get slated.
Again, it isn't necessarily a bad thing if you have stat bias ratings that are close to these limits, just be sure that your reasoning behind these higher ratings is extra solid.
Another small note, it should go without saying, but I won't be taking any aesthetic aspects of your spread into account when determining the slate. So don't get too caught up trying to make your stats end in 0's or 5's, or making them add up to a clean-looking number or something. I'm only taking functionality and reasoning (and of course, legality) into account here.
I've had a chance to talk to a bunch of you about your individual submissions already, and I'm pleased with the amount of people coming to me for advice! I'm online on PS/IRC a good deal in the evening/night (GMT -5) for anyone else that wants to talk stats in real time, and I'd definitely be willing to do so :] Keep up the good work!
jayelt413, just a notice that both of your stat spreads do not conform to the BSR limits in the OP, and will need to be adjusted in order to be considered for the slate.
I think Ignus makes a good point on Speed, and all of the mechanics of Mega Evolution are things we should be strongly considering for these stats. I used a similar logic in my submission, only targeting Charizard instead of Keldeo because it seemed like a more appropriate target for the base form, what with resisting its STAB attacks and all. I also wanted to highlight the transition to MegaCAP by using a simple +10 Spe to leapfrog over a sizable and significant group of faster Pokemon, so I grouped Keldeo in with the 110s, Thundurus, and Serperior just to make the group a little bigger, although I could understand a desire to dissuade Keldeo from ever switching into the base form unless it is Scarfed. To each his own.
What I am more concerned about are the PT levels of some of these spreads, which is actually the area where it makes the most sense to balance out the rest of our amazing stats. One of the (many) problems with Aurumoth was that it was not KO'd by stuff like Choice Scarf Terrakion's Stone Edge, meaning players had to pack two or more answers to Aurumoth into every viable team or risk getting swept every single time. When people have to burn through two or three Pokemon just to chip away at a single opponent until it is KO'd, people rightly begin to consider that Pokemon to be uncompetitive. Please keep in mind that only direct attacks can harm this MegaCAP, and consider that the CAP will likely be able to outrun most opponents and wallop them with incredible power. I get that it's a MegaCAP and it's supposed to toe the line of overpoweredness (not a real word, oh well), but how many Mega Pokemon even can survive fully-invested super-effective STAB attacks, from base 129+ attacking stats, with no defensive investment at all? If your spread reliably survives Choice Scarf Keldeo's Hydro Pump on the special side and max attack Mega Scizor's Bullet Punch on the physical side, with no defensive investment whatsoever (outside of your 4 extra EVs), then I think there is a problem with the balance of your spread.
I believe that a lower than 100 base HP stat is certainly better than a high HP stat for this CAP particularly. It keeps the base form from being more generally preferred, as a lower HP stat means MUCH less of a buffer for recoil and limits the abuse of Regenerator (keep it to its intended role of giving the CAP an easier time switching in and out to find time to Mega). It doesn't have to be too low, but it shouldn't be too high either (90 range looks workable).
Stat spread-wise, it also reduces the difficulty of keeping your PT and ST in the appropriate ranges. I see people arguing that being able to make 101 Subs is a great thing for this CAP, but all I can really see that doing is allowing the base form more use on its own with a Black Sludge (since Seismic Tossers would be set up bait, and you get to either fire off 2 high powered STAB moves, or a set up move if the CAP receives one); I know this isn't about making the Mega form the only usable option, but what's the point of the Mega form if you can just throw on a different item altogether and still have a Mega slot? Who cares about Chansey and Blissey, this CAP beats them regardless as we are going in the physical offensive route. You certainly wouldn't want to Head Smash them in your base form regardless, so the recoil buffer argument is pretty poor. Any active Sub will block status, so that's not a major selling point either.
I'm interested to see if there are other reasons for a high HP stat. Perhaps we do want to base form to be used more (we never did come to a conclusion about that, only that at least the Mega form should fulfill the concept). Having the PT and ST limited by a high HP stat also means submissions can focus a lot more on the offensive stats, especially for the Mega. That alone may be a viable enough reason, but I would like to see people address my points.
Mr Holiday - The lower Speed stat is certainly a defining part of your spread. As such, I feel like the specific reasoning for it should be fleshed out a bit more. For example, one of the prominent foes CAP 21 is intended to threaten is Mega Altaria, which happens to sit at exactly the same Speed tier (Base 80). This leaves potential for Speed ties (depending on the nature and investment of both), which could make the matchup between EQ Mega Altaria and CAP 21 sketchier than it needs to be. Some other notable foes around the same area are Hoopa-U (Base 80), Dragonite (Base 80), and Gyarados (Base 81). You definitely have some wiggle room with your PS/BSR, so I think it'd be worthwhile to take your spread's Speed tier into deeper consideration before finalizing it.
General comment on HP - As WhiteDMist stated above, and as several of you have stated in your WIPs/Submissions, a lower HP stat prevents the base form from taking advantage of Head Smash as well. For example, let's say CAP 21's base form (0 HP EVs for simplicity) takes out a Charizard (also 0 HP EVs) from full health. If we're looking on the lower end of the spectrum of submissions so far, namely Base 70s, they're losing over half of their health by doing so, more than can be healed by Regenerator. On on the other end of the spectrum, Base 110s are only taking around 40%. While I don't think any of the current spreads are necessarily way too high in terms of HP, I kinda want to avoid going much higher than this; absurdly high HP stats open up the door for abusing the +100 BST provided by Mega Evolution, specifically in the defensive stats.
As a general announcement, I'll most likely keep this thread open about another three days depending on how submissions progress from here, since submissions seem to be slowing down a bit and becoming more finalized from what I can tell. Remember to put Final Submission (in bold) at the top of your post once you're finished. If you're thinking about making a submission and you haven't posted a WIP yet, don't panic, but I'd highly recommend doing so very soon so you aren't rushed at the last second. As usual, you can find me on PS and IRC during the late hours if you wanna talk numbers.
My first true contribution to the CAP projects even if I have been following them since Voodoom (although irregularly). Also, I hope my text is not plagued by grammatical mistakes.
I want to try something different from what I've seen. I'm not sure if it's a good thing, but let's roll with it :
BASE STATS 90 HP / 100 ATK / 74 DEF / 56 SPA / 100 SPD / 119 SPE
PT 116.58 (170) / PS 164.75 (180) / ST 158.56 (195) / SS 98.90 (145) / BSR 289.24 (325)
MEGA STATS 90 HP / 145 ATK / 84 DEF / 75 SPA / 145 SPD / 100 SPE
PT 131.59 (170) / PS 229.45 (230) / ST 227.08 (240) / SS 119.25 (145) / BSR 399.1 (410)
(+45 / +5 / + 14 / +55 / - 19)
The main design choice is the loss of speed upon M-Evolving. As you know, you don't "immediately" lose your speed upon M-Evolving. That means that when you M-Evolve, you have a free shot with your gargantuan attack and technically 119 speed.
You are trading the speed for power and bulk, a bit like M-Chomp. However, M-Chomp is not popular. Why would you want to Mega-evolve when you have something with decent power (especially with HULK HEAD SMASH), bulk and is fast (or even just go LO) ?
- You want to have an extra oomph to take out something. Upon M-Evolving, you get a "free LO (tbh, 25% more power)".
- Bulk. Physically, you get to never be 2KOed by Banded Talonflame STABs for example. Not much, but still something. You are still OHKOed by virtually any EQ though, and anything more powerful than Psyshock from Alakazam.
Specially, well, you can stomach a lot of unboosted Water STAB (H-Pump from Keldeo Scarf, Surf from Modest Manaphy) and many powerful attack which you could not without M-Evo (Draco Meteor from Latios LO). Also you don't kill yourself with Head Smash.
- You are not M-Chomp slow : you still tie with 100s (Zard, Manaphy, Jirachi).
I see it this way : Base CAP can be used as a scout early-game, with immunity to Toxic, Regenerator and decent bulk (he can take a Volt Switch if needed). Then, when he needs to strike down an opponent, he M-Evolves and becomes a slower, bulkier powerhouse.
PT
116.58 (Above Average) --> 131.59 (Good)
I wanted him CAP to be vulnerable to the priority attacks he is supposed to be weak to. That means Bullet Punch (Scizor), Aqua-Jet (Azumarill) and arguably Sucker Punch from Bisharp. 90/74 is still not that bad and let CAP take most resisted hits : Talonflame can't 2KO us without Choice Band, Zard-X never OHKOes us without EQ / Outrage and we have no trouble coming in predicted U-Turn (you better not mispredict though).
With M-Evolution, we are more comfortable tanking Talonflame (never 2KOed even by the Bander) and fare better against most prio. Nothing incredible, but still noticeable.
ST
158.56 (Very Good) --> 227.08 (Amazing)
I'm leaning towards the limit here, but I've got still room to breathe (about 7 points in either HP or SpDef).
Without M-Evo, there is nothing outstanding : 90/100 is good but nothing more. It gives some opportunities to switch-in (Heatran, Venusaur), but water attacks are out of question and you won't like switching in powerful attacks (Draco Meteors, Thunderbolts (and Volt-Switch), Fire Blast from Zard-Y).
But with M-Evo, things change a lot. 90/145 is outstanding, and let CAP take some STABed Water attack (Scarf Keldeo, weak Scald), Charizard-Y. Most T-Bolts won't do more than 50% so we can either switch-in a predicted hit or come after a slow U-Turn. As said before, Base form can pivot well thanks to its speed, defense and Regenerator. When it comes to the Mega form, the goal is to stay there and not be forced out thanks to its bulk. That is why I wanted to have such a high ST : else, if weakened, CAP could be RKed by many threatening threats.
PS
164.75 (Very Good) --> 229.45 (Amazing)
Ok, I am barely in the limits there. But I have reasons :
100/119 with base form : decent attack, good damage thanks to its STABs. We are outsped by Alakazam, Tornadus-T, M-Lopunny and Talonflame. Yeah, that's not much. However, you lack the power to break through bulky mons. You could just slap a LO and call it a day, right ?
Wrong : unlike Starmie, your STABs have mediocre coverage ; we won't be able to sustain SR + LO + Moonblasts / recoil with Regenerator (and Stone Edge is too weak). I might want even less HP though. The goal there is to poke a bit, to see what has the opponent against us, and then M-Evolve to punch through bulkier opponents. We get one turn where we will "keep" our speed : something like Latias can't RK us if we have not M-Evolved yet.
To justify the M-Evo, I had to largely increase its power. However, I just could not be slower than 100 speed : I wanted to check both Zard and Manaphy. And I needed 145 Atk (or something like that) to pressure Skarmory, Landorus-T but most importantly Manaphy / Starmie / Rotom-W more easily. Also, the difference between Base and M-Evo had to be high enough so M-Evo was not just inferior.
SS
I will leave this here :
252 Atk CAP Head Smash vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Scizor: 265-313 (77.2 - 91.2%) -- 25% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ SpA Mega CAP Hidden Power Fire vs. 248 HP / 8 SpD Scizor: 228-272 (66.4 - 79.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
Yeah no.
Lots of calcs, which may I have to change because I'm not really good at planning. The "hide" tags don't work properly, idk why.
Thanks for reading !
252 SpA Alakazam Psyshock vs. 0 HP / 4 Def CAP: 360-426 (112.1 - 132.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 SpA Alakazam Psyshock vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega CAP: 308-366 (95.9 - 114%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Choice Band Technician Scizor Bullet Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Abomasnow: 414-488 (128.9 - 152%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Scizor U-turn vs. 0 HP / 4 Def CAP: 120-141 (37.3 - 43.9%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
96+ Atk Technician Mega Scizor Bullet Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def CAP: 276-326 (85.9 - 101.5%) -- 87.5% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Choice Band Scizor U-turn vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega CAP: 108-128 (33.6 - 39.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
96+ Atk Technician Mega Scizor Bullet Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega CAP: 252-296 (78.5 - 92.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 Atk Mega Lopunny High Jump Kick vs. 0 HP / 4 Def CAP: 280-330 (87.2 - 102.8%) -- 93.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock / Fake Out
252 Atk Mega Lopunny High Jump Kick vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega CAP: 262-310 (81.6 - 96.5%) -- 62.5% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Choice Band Talonflame Brave Bird vs. 0 HP / 4 Def CAP: 150-177 (46.7 - 55.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Choice Band Talonflame Brave Bird vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega CAP: 135-159 (42 - 49.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252 Atk Landorus-T U-turn vs. 0 HP / 4 Def CAP: 53-62 (16.5 - 19.3%) -- possible 6HKO
252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Dragon Claw vs. 0 HP / 4 Def CAP: 238-282 (74.1 - 87.8%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Flare Blitz vs. 0 HP / 4 Def CAP: 178-210 (55.4 - 65.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Dragon Claw vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega CAP: 214-253 (66.6 - 78.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Choice Band Huge Power Azumarill Aqua Jet vs. 0 HP / 4 Def CAP: 306-360 (95.3 - 112.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Huge Power Azumarill Aqua Jet vs. 0 HP / 4 Def CAP: 204-242 (63.5 - 75.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Choice Band Huge Power Azumarill Aqua Jet vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega CAP: 276-326 (85.9 - 101.5%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
220+ Atk Bisharp Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def CAP: 175-207 (54.5 - 64.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
0 Atk Ferrothorn Gyro Ball (150 BP) vs. 0 HP / 4 Def CAP: 390-462 (121.4 - 143.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
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252 SpA Mega Charizard Y Fire Blast vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD CAP in Sun: 156-185 (48.5 - 57.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252 SpA Mega Charizard Y Fire Blast vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Abomasnow in Sun: 114-135 (35.5 - 42%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock
252 SpA Life Orb Latios Draco Meteor vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD CAP: 277-328 (86.2 - 102.1%) -- 93.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252 SpA Life Orb Latios Draco Meteor vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Mega CAP: 200-238 (62.3 - 74.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ SpA Manaphy Surf vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD CAP: 270-320 (84.1 - 99.6%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ SpA Manaphy Surf vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Mega CAP: 198-234 (61.6 - 72.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Keldeo Scald vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD CAP: 260-308 (80.9 - 95.9%) -- 56.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252 SpA Keldeo Hydro Pump vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD CAP: 356-422 (110.9 - 131.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 SpA Keldeo Hydro Pump vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Mega CAP: 260-308 (80.9 - 95.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Mega Manectric Thunderbolt vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD CAP: 153-180 (47.6 - 56%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252 SpA Mega Manectric Thunderbolt vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Mega CAP: 109-130 (33.9 - 40.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
180 SpA Life Orb Thundurus Thunderbolt vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD CAP: 177-211 (55.1 - 65.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
180 SpA Life Orb Thundurus Thunderbolt vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Mega CAP: 129-152 (40.1 - 47.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
4 SpA Mega Slowbro Scald vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD CAP: 218-258 (67.9 - 80.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
4 SpA Mega Slowbro Scald vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Mega CAP: 158-188 (49.2 - 58.5%) -- 98% chance to 2HKO
0 SpA Rotom-W Hydro Pump vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD CAP: 248-294 (77.2 - 91.5%) -- 31.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
0 SpA Rotom-W Hydro Pump vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Mega CAP: 180-212 (56 - 66%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Heatran Earth Power vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD CAP: 396-468 (123.3 - 145.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 SpA Heatran Earth Power vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Mega CAP: 288-340 (89.7 - 105.9%) -- 31.3% chance to OHKO
252 SpA Life Orb Starmie Hydro Pump vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD CAP: 393-463 (122.4 - 144.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 SpA Life Orb Starmie Hydro Pump vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Mega CAP: 283-335 (88.1 - 104.3%) -- 25% chance to OHKO
252 Atk Mega CAP Head Smash vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Scizor: 265-313 (77.2 - 91.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 Atk Mega CAP Head Smash vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Mega Scizor: 199-235 (58 - 68.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
-1 252 Atk CAP Head Smash vs. 0 HP / 24 Def Landorus-T: 144-171 (45.1 - 53.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
-1 252 Atk Mega CAP Head Smash vs. 0 HP / 24 Def Landorus-T: 189-223 (59.2 - 69.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
-1 252 Atk Mega CAP Gunk Shot vs. 0 HP / 24 Def Landorus-T: 75-89 (23.5 - 27.8%) -- guaranteed 4HKO after Stealth Rock
-1 252 Atk CAP Head Smash vs. 252 HP / 240+ Def Landorus-T: 106-126 (27.7 - 32.9%) -- guaranteed 4HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery -1 252 Atk Mega CAP Head Smash vs. 252 HP / 240+ Def Landorus-T: 138-163 (36.1 - 42.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252 Atk CAP Head Smash vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Skarmory: 117-138 (35 - 41.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Mega CAP Head Smash vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Skarmory: 151-178 (45.2 - 53.2%) -- 90.6% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery - You can't 2KO with a CAP + M-CAP hit -
252 Atk CAP Gunk Shot vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Keldeo: 178-210 (55.1 - 65%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock 252 Atk Mega CAP Gunk Shot vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Keldeo: 231-273 (71.5 - 84.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk CAP Head Smash vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Heatran: 195-229 (50.6 - 59.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252 Atk CAP Gunk Shot vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Clefable: 288-342 (73 - 86.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Mega CAP Gunk Shot vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Clefable: 372-440 (94.4 - 111.6%) -- 68.8% chance to OHKO
252 Atk Mega CAP Gunk Shot vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Rotom-W: 145-172 (47.8 - 56.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252 Atk CAP Head Smash vs. 96 HP / 0 Def Manaphy: 204-241 (55.8 - 66%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Mega CAP Head Smash vs. 96 HP / 0 Def Manaphy: 265-313 (72.6 - 85.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
-1 252 Atk CAP Head Smash vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega Manectric: 163-193 (58 - 68.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
-1 252 Atk Mega CAP Head Smash vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega Manectric: 211-250 (75 - 88.9%) -- 12.5% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk CAP Head Smash vs. 252 HP / 232+ Def Slowbro: 141-166 (35.7 - 42.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Mega CAP Head Smash vs. 252 HP / 232+ Def Slowbro: 183-216 (46.4 - 54.8%) -- 98.4% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
I believe that a lower than 100 base HP stat is certainly better than a high HP stat for this CAP particularly. It keeps the base form from being more generally preferred, as a lower HP stat means MUCH less of a buffer for recoil and limits the abuse of Regenerator (keep it to its intended role of giving the CAP an easier time switching in and out to find time to Mega). It doesn't have to be too low, but it shouldn't be too high either (90 range looks workable).
Stat spread-wise, it also reduces the difficulty of keeping your PT and ST in the appropriate ranges. I see people arguing that being able to make 101 Subs is a great thing for this CAP, but all I can really see that doing is allowing the base form more use on its own with a Black Sludge (since Seismic Tossers would be set up bait, and you get to either fire off 2 high powered STAB moves, or a set up move if the CAP receives one); I know this isn't about making the Mega form the only usable option, but what's the point of the Mega form if you can just throw on a different item altogether and still have a Mega slot? Who cares about Chansey and Blissey, this CAP beats them regardless as we are going in the physical offensive route. You certainly wouldn't want to Head Smash them in your base form regardless, so the recoil buffer argument is pretty poor. Any active Sub will block status, so that's not a major selling point either.
I'm interested to see if there are other reasons for a high HP stat. Perhaps we do want to base form to be used more (we never did come to a conclusion about that, only that at least the Mega form should fulfill the concept). Having the PT and ST limited by a high HP stat also means submissions can focus a lot more on the offensive stats, especially for the Mega. That alone may be a viable enough reason, but I would like to see people address my points.
To be honest, I was not thinking of Regenerator abuse at all when thinking of the CAP's BST. I was only using base 100 HP as a base for calculating my defensive stats, and not for buffing Regenerator. I could change it, but I really do not see the point regarding my BST submission, considering my CAP was intentionally catered to be outsped by Pokemon that can OHKO it, specifically Kyurem-B and Garchomp. My BST submission already has a very generous amount of all-around bulk, so reducing its HP stat so it could receive higher defense would be a bit much to suggest. I considered my defenses very carefully when I constructed my BST submission, and I already came to the decision that the CAP needed sufficient bulk (and NOT maximum possible bulk) to offset its speed and exploitable weaknesses.
Changes:
+20 Attack, +20 Defense, +30 Special Attack, +5 Special Defense, +25 Speed
Speed Tier:
The Mega form's Speed stat was the first number I decided on. An extremely high Speed stat provides so much more flexibility with CAP21, as both Adamant and Jolly CAP21 will be perfectly viable. 136 Speed outspeeds everything in the OU tier besides Mega Alakazam, purposefully outspeeding Mega Manectric and Mega Lopunny by a single point. However, let's focus on how that Speed tier interacts with our threatlist. With Jolly and 252 EVs, CAP21 will have 408 Speed. That's enough to easily outspeed +1 Adamant Mega Altaria. It also lets CAP21 outspeed Keldeo and Thundurus using an Adamant nature. 136 Speed, however, doesn't particularly speed-creep anything on our threatlist. CAP21 doesn't need to fully invest in Speed or necessarily use a positive nature to outspeed Pokemon such as Manaphy, Keldeo, Thundurus, and Talonflame. I find that last one important: I don't want this Pokemon slower than Talonflame because that just gives Talonflame free U-Turns or even Will-O-Wisps. CAP21 needs to threaten Talonflame by wiping it off the face of the earth, not just "beating" it 1v1. Furthermore, the Speed can be tailored to whatever suits CAP21's team. If you want CAP21 to serve as an all-purpose revenge killer in addition to a utility counter, run 252 EVs and Jolly and you can outspeed every Pokemon in OU but one. If your team doesn't need that kind of Speed, it can beef up its power with an Adamant nature or increase its bulk by shifting EVs from Speed to HP. A Speed stat of 136 provides versatility and unpredictability that lower stats fail to provide.
I chose 111 for the base form's Speed because I don't want any funny business when it comes to outspeeding Keldeo. Even if CAP21 has not yet Mega Evolved, it will be faster than Keldeo if it's running Jolly and full investment. It will do the same to Latios/Latias, as well as speed tie Thundurus. When it comes to Speed, Dogfish44 said it best: "given that our main characteristic in the mega is "Powerful, Inaccurate attacks", I want us to be at very least able to use those attacks as often as possible".
Physical Attack:
CAP21 needs a high Attack stat. 127 Attack seems extremely high given our prospective movepool, but 127 Attack without an item just isn't as strong as it looks like. That's 353 Attack with Jolly, or 388 with Adamant. Without a boost from a Life Orb or Choice item, that really isn't all that much. Base 127 Attack without an item is weaker than base 90 Attack boosted by a Life Orb. I consider this stat just good enough to get by. With the right coverage, and this Pokemon will need the right coverage, 127 Attack is powerful enough to threaten what we need to. Here are some relevant calculations:
252 Atk Cradily Gunk Shot vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Keldeo: 210-247 (65 - 76.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Cradily Gunk Shot vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Keldeo: 231-273 (71.5 - 84.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Cradily Gunk Shot vs. 240 HP / 0 Def Azumarill: 464-548 (115.7 - 136.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO (All common Azumarill sets are OHKO'd by Gunk Shot regardless of CAP21's nature)
252 Atk Cradily Gunk Shot vs. 248 HP / 104+ Def Mega Altaria: 294-348 (83.2 - 98.5%) -- 68.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Cradily Gunk Shot vs. 248 HP / 104+ Def Mega Altaria: 324-384 (91.7 - 108.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk Cradily Gunk Shot vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Mega Altaria: 356-420 (100.8 - 118.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 Atk Cradily Gunk Shot vs. 252 HP / 220+ Def Sylveon: 374-444 (94.9 - 112.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk Cradily Gunk Shot vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega Lopunny: 204-240 (75.2 - 88.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Cradily Gunk Shot vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega Lopunny: 222-262 (81.9 - 96.6%) -- 18.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk Cradily Gunk Shot vs. 248 HP / 244 Def Mega Gardevoir: 402-474 (118.5 - 139.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252+ Atk Cradily Gunk Shot vs. 248 HP / 244 Def Mega Gardevoir: 440-522 (129.7 - 153.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 Atk Cradily Gunk Shot vs. 16 HP / 0 Def Mega Medicham: 220-261 (83 - 98.4%) -- 31.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Cradily Gunk Shot vs. 16 HP / 0 Def Mega Medicham: 243-286 (91.6 - 107.9%) -- 87.5% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk Cradily Gunk Shot vs. 252 HP / 148+ Def Celebi: 306-360 (75.7 - 89.1%) -- 12.5% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Cradily Gunk Shot vs. 252 HP / 148+ Def Celebi: 336-396 (83.1 - 98%) -- 68.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
CAP21 will be causing significant damage to Keldeo with Gunk Shot, guaranteeing a 2HKO running Adamant or Jolly. Any relevant Azumarill set will be destroyed by a single Gunk Shot. Defensive Mega Altaria can survive a Gunk Shot from Jolly CAP21, but Stealth Rock and/or an Adamant nature will ensure the KO. It's preferable to get a little chip damage in before challenging Altaria directly. Any other Altaria set, such as 252 HP / 0 Def, will be OHKO'd without Stealth Rock even if CAP21 is running a Jolly nature. Sylveon is absolutely destroyed by Gunk Shot, and can't really do anything back anyway. There are also calculations for CAP21 against other Pokemon not specified in the threatlist. Mega Lopunny will take grievous damage from Gunk Shot, but can only be OHKO'd with Stealth Rock and an Adamant nature. Even the most defensive Mega Gardevoir set is annihilated by Gunk Shot. Mega Medicham is in the same boat as Mega Lopunny: Gunk Shot can OHKO with a Jolly nature, but an Adamant nature will nearly guarantee it. Physically Defensive Celebi will surprisingly be able to take a Jolly Gunk Shot most of the time, but it's unable to really do much back. Adamant Gunk Shot will most likely destroy it.
Head Smash is CAP21's Big Red Button. You click it, and then things get hurt. However, keep in mind Head Smash's accuracy. A "guaranteed OHKO" is really only an 80% chance to OHKO and a "guaranteed 2HKO" is really only a 64% chance to 2HKO. Let's see how OU fares:
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Mega Charizard X: 440-522 (122.5 - 145.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO *All Mega Charizard sets are OHKO'd regardless of CAP21's nature.
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 248 HP / 136+ Def Mandibuzz: 372-438 (87.9 - 103.5%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 248 HP / 136+ Def Mandibuzz: 408-480 (96.4 - 113.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Talonflame: 1276-1504 (355.4 - 418.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 Atk burned Cradily Head Smash vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Talonflame: 638-752 (177.7 - 209.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 Atk burned Cradily Head Smash vs. +1 248 HP / 0 Def Talonflame: 426-504 (118.6 - 140.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 Atk burned Cradily Head Smash vs. +2 248 HP / 0 Def Talonflame: 320-378 (89.1 - 105.2%) -- 31.3% chance to OHKO
The only Talonflame set that can theoretically threaten CAP21 is the Bulky Will-O-Wisp one, and it would take unbelievable luck (numerous Head Smash misses) for CAP21 to lose.
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 132 HP / 0 Def Tornadus-T: 578-684 (174 - 206%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 96 HP / 0 Def Manaphy: 241-285 (66 - 78%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 96 HP / 0 Def Manaphy: 265-313 (72.6 - 85.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 240 HP / 252+ Def Manaphy: 174-205 (43.3 - 51.1%) -- 59% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 240 HP / 252+ Def Manaphy: 192-226 (47.8 - 56.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Politoed: 306-361 (79.8 - 94.2%) -- 50% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Politoed: 336-396 (87.7 - 103.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Rotom-W: 166-196 (54.7 - 64.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Kyurem-B: 482-570 (123.2 - 145.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Mega Sableye: 150-177 (49.3 - 58.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega Alakazam: 340-402 (135.4 - 160.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Bisharp: 120-141 (44.2 - 52%) -- 74.2% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Heatran: 229-271 (59.4 - 70.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Hoopa Unbound: 364-430 (120.5 - 142.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
-1 252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 252 HP / 240+ Def Landorus-T: 126-148 (32.9 - 38.7%) -- 99.8% chance to 3HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
-1 252+ Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 252 HP / 240+ Def Landorus-T: 138-163 (36.1 - 42.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
-1 252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Landorus-T: 177-208 (55.3 - 65%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
-1 252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 0 HP / 24 Def Landorus-T: 171-202 (53.6 - 63.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Latios: 289-342 (96.6 - 114.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Latios: 319-376 (106.6 - 125.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 248 HP / 236+ Def Mega Scizor: 138-163 (40.2 - 47.5%) -- 50.8% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 248 HP / 236+ Def Mega Scizor: 153-180 (44.6 - 52.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 248 HP / 0+ Def Mega Scizor: 165-195 (48.1 - 56.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 252 HP / 56+ Def Gliscor: 172-204 (48.5 - 57.6%) -- 94.5% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Poison Heal
252+ Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 252 HP / 56+ Def Gliscor: 190-225 (53.6 - 63.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Poison Heal
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 244 HP / 0 Def Gliscor: 199-235 (56.5 - 66.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Poison Heal
252+ Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 244 HP / 0 Def Gliscor: 219-258 (62.2 - 73.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Poison Heal
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega Gyarados: 223-264 (67.3 - 79.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega Gyarados: 246-289 (74.3 - 87.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 72 HP / 0 Def Latias: 262-310 (82.1 - 97.1%) -- 62.5% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Mew: 241-285 (59.6 - 70.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Mew: 265-313 (65.5 - 77.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Skarmory: 136-162 (40.7 - 48.5%) -- 9% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Skarmory: 151-178 (45.2 - 53.2%) -- 90.6% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Mega Slowbro: 114-135 (28.9 - 34.2%) -- 99.8% chance to 3HKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Mega Slowbro: 126-148 (31.9 - 37.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 252 HP / 240+ Def Mega Venusaur: 153-180 (42 - 49.4%) -- 85.5% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 252 HP / 240+ Def Mega Venusaur: 168-198 (46.1 - 54.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Raikou: 306-361 (95.3 - 112.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Raikou: 336-396 (104.6 - 123.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Serperior: 252-297 (86.5 - 102%) -- 93.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Serperior: 277-327 (95.1 - 112.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Starmie: 276-325 (85.4 - 100.6%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Cradily Head Smash vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Starmie: 304-358 (94.1 - 110.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
Looking at our threatlist, Head Smash is gonna hurt some stuff. Charizard's toast. Tornadus-T and Talonflame are toast. Mandibuzz is toast if Stealth Rock is up, but it's not touching us anyway. Politoed is almost certainly toast, and Rotom-W is 2HKO'd. Manaphy, however, can get a little dicey. Tail Glow Manaphy is outsped and 2HKO'd, but defensive Calm Mind Manaphy can take two Head Smashes if it hasn't suffered any chip damage. If Stealth Rock isn't up, it can even take two Adamant head Smashes with a little luck. To combat this, super-effective coverage is necessary. Otherwise, we're going to have to live with Calm Mind Manaphy giving CAP21 headaches. Kyurem-B, Weavile, and Volcarona are clearly destroyed by a single Head Smash.
Now, let's look at how CAP21 can damage OU Pokemon in general. Mega Sableye can't switch in, as even Jolly CAP21 will 2HKO it with a pair of Head Smashes. Mega Alakazam is shredded in one hit. Bisharp doesn't want to switch into a Head Smash, as Adamant CAP21 will 2HKO it and Jolly has a significant chance to 2HKO with Stealth Rock down. However, Bisharp clearly still wins 1v1. Heatran will be 2HKO'd, and CAP21 can take a single Earth Power if it has to. Hoopa-Unbound is bound to die to a single Head Smash. Landorus-T beats CAP21 1v1, but a non-Scarfed or Defensive Landorus-T can't just switch in for free. Even after Intimidate, CAP21 can 2HKO sweeper Landorus-T with Head Smash. This is a reasonable balance, as it makes CAP21 not complete dead weight against Landorus-T.
While this spread sticks to the threat list pretty well, it just isn't feasible to be threatened by Latios and Latias. CAP21's Head Smash will almost certainly OHKO the two, but that's just a consequence of the power CAP21 requires to threaten the Pokemon it needs to.. Mega Scizor is an interesting case. Defensive Mega Scizor will be 2HKO'd after Stealth Rock by Head Smash, but two Bullet Punches will make quick work of our CAP. It's a situation where Mega Scizor will threaten and defeat CAP21, but it can't blindly switch in. This, in my opinion, is how offensive Pokemon should be threatening CAP21. CAP21's threats generally can't switch into Head Smashes all they want, but they will still easily defeat CAP21 1v1. Gliscor's in a similar boat, but one Protect will likely put it out of our 2HKO range. This is fine, as it lets Gliscor win without completely dominating CAP21. Specially Defensive Gliscor really doesn't want to switch into a Head Smash though. Mega Gyarados can't set up against CAP21, as +1 Jolly CAP21 will outspeed Adamant Mega Gyarados. Head Smash from Jolly CAP21 easily 2HKOs Mega Gyarados and Adamant comes dangerously close to OHKOing. Skarmory, surprisingly, doesn't completely wall CAP21. Adamant CAP21 threatens a 2HKO if Stealth Rock is down. However, Skarmory can just phaze a Jolly CAP21 away barring high damage rolls. We're sticking to the threatlist against Mega Slowbro: it's just too bulky to beat even with coverage like Wood Hammer. Starmie just takes its medicine. No Reflect Type shenanigans will save it from the Smash of the Head.
Physical Defense:
CAP21's a pretty fast Pokemon. That leads to a lot of potential EV customization. Not every CAP21 user is going to run 4 HP / 0 Def. If CAP21 wants to outspeed Mega Manectric and Mega Lopunny, then yeah it will run 4 HP / 0 Def. But if all you care about is outspeeding +1 Adamant Mega Gyarados, then you can afford to invest in bulk. Before I move on to calculations, I'm going to post EV spreads that outspeed various Pokemon:
Mega Lopunny/Manectric: 12 HP / 252 Atk / 244 Spe (Jolly)
+1 Adamant Mega Gyarados: 60 HP / 252 Atk / 196 Spe (Jolly)
+1 Adamant Mega Altaria: 72 HP / 252 Atk / 184 Spe (Jolly)
Talonflame: 80 HP / 252 Atk / 176 Spe (Jolly)
+Spe, 216 EV Tornadus-T: 24 HP / 252 Atk / 232 Spe (Adamant)
Thundurus: 72 HP / 252 Atk / 184 Spe (Adamant)
Keldeo: 100 HP / 252 Atk / 156 Spe (Adamant)
I can only post so many calcs, and nobody wants to see a million calculations with each of those spreads, so I'm going to post calculations using 4 HP / 0 Def. If you want to see what various other spreads do, fiddle around with the Damage Calculator.
252+ Atk Mega Altaria Earthquake vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 460-544 (128.4 - 151.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
0 Atk Mega Altaria Earthquake vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 340-400 (94.9 - 111.7%)
0- Atk Mega Altaria Earthquake vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 304-360 (84.9 - 100.5%)
252+ Atk Choice Band Huge Power Azumarill Aqua Jet vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 258-306 (72 - 85.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Huge Power Azumarill Waterfall vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 516-608 (144.1 - 169.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252+ Atk Huge Power Azumarill Aqua Jet vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 174-206 (48.6 - 57.5%)
252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Flare Blitz vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 151-178 (42.1 - 49.7%)
252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Dragon Claw vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 202-238 (56.4 - 66.4%)
252+ Atk Mega Charizard X Earthquake vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 520-612 (145.2 - 170.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Dragon Claw vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 303-357 (84.6 - 99.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Talonflame Brave Bird vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 127-150 (35.4 - 41.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
+2 252 Atk Sharp Beak Talonflame Brave Bird vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 185-218 (51.6 - 60.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
76 Atk Life Orb Tornadus-T Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 107-126 (29.8 - 35.1%) -- 21.2% chance to 3HKO
252+ Atk Life Orb Teravolt Kyurem-B Iron Head vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 330-390 (92.1 - 108.9%) -- 56.3% chance to OHKO
252+ Atk Life Orb Teravolt Kyurem-B Dragon Claw vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 247-292 (68.9 - 81.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Life Orb Teravolt Kyurem-B Fusion Bolt vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 205-243 (57.2 - 67.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
0 Atk Teravolt Kyurem-B Fusion Bolt vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 124-146 (34.6 - 40.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252+ Atk Teravolt Kyurem-B Outrage vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 285-336 (79.6 - 93.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Teravolt Kyurem-B Dragon Claw vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 190-225 (53 - 62.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Teravolt Kyurem-B Fusion Bolt vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 158-187 (44.1 - 52.2%) -- 17.6% chance to 2HKO
252 Atk Life Orb Weavile Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 211-250 (58.9 - 69.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 Atk Life Orb Weavile Ice Shard vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 87-105 (24.3 - 29.3%) -- 99.8% chance to 4HKO
252+ Atk Life Orb Excadrill Iron Head vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 416-491 (116.2 - 137.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 Atk Mold Breaker Excadrill Iron Head vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 290-344 (81 - 96%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
0 Atk Ferrothorn Gyro Ball (127 BP) vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 282-332 (78.7 - 92.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
0 Atk Ferrothorn Power Whip vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 133-157 (37.1 - 43.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252 Atk Tough Claws Mega Metagross Meteor Mash vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 450-530 (125.6 - 148%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 Atk Tough Claws Mega Metagross Zen Headbutt vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 398-470 (111.1 - 131.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO
0 Atk Technician Mega Scizor Bullet Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 200-236 (55.8 - 65.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
84 Atk Technician Mega Scizor Bullet Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 212-252 (59.2 - 70.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Technician Mega Scizor Bullet Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 260-308 (72.6 - 86%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Technician Scizor Bullet Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 350-414 (97.7 - 115.6%) -- 87.5% chance to OHKO
252 Atk Life Orb Bisharp Iron Head vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 359-424 (100.2 - 118.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252+ Atk Bisharp Iron Head vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 306-360 (85.4 - 100.5%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO
252+ Atk Life Orb Hoopa Unbound Hyperspace Fury vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 296-348 (82.6 - 97.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 Atk Mega Lopunny High Jump Kick vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 237-280 (66.2 - 78.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
240+ Atk Pure Power Mega Medicham High Jump Kick vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 415-490 (115.9 - 136.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
0- Atk Mega Charizard Y Earthquake vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 292-344 (81.5 - 96%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Altaria kills us if it has Earthquake. Even Special Attacker Altaria, which runs no Attack investment and a negative nature, is probably knocking CAP21 out if Stealth Rock is down. That's why I find it important for CAP21 to outspeed at least +1 Adamant Altaria. Special Altaria is outsped and OHKO'd. Offensive DD is outsped and OHKO'd. Defensive Altaria doesn't run EQ so it can't touch us. We just have to beware of Cotton Guard and support-based Altaria, as the former can PP stall Gunk Shots and the latter has a chance to survive one and KO back. Azumarill is also not a good Pokemon to switch into, but it doesn't beat our CAP. While CB Aqua Jet doesn't OHKO, it can revenge kill even a slightly weakened CAP21. Assault Vest Azumarill does about 50% to CAP21 with Aqua Jet, but will fall to a single Gunk Shot. CAP21 can even switch into an AV Azumarill's predicted Play Rough or Knock Off and take an Aqua Jet. Mega Charizard X is pretty safe to switch into; not even a +1 Dragon Claw or Flare Blitz is going to OHKO CAP21. Choice Band Talonflame is not going to 2HKO CAP21, and CAP21 isn't significantly threatened by a +2 Talonflame. However, CAP21 can still have problems switching into an already boosted Talonflame if Head Smash misses. There isn't much we can do about that, though. CAP21 laughs at Tornadus-T. Kyurem-Black is an odd case. The only non-Scarf set that CAP21 can't always switch into is the Physical attacker, as a Life Orb-boosted Iron Head has a chance to OHKO. Scarf Kyurem-Black won't OHKO CAP21, but Outrage will badly injure our Pokemon. CAP21 doesn't like switching into Kyurem-B, but can do so in a pinch. CAP21 can switch into Weavile if it has to, as Knock Off + Ice Shard can't KO CAP21. In a 1v1 situation, CAP21 can shrug off an Ice Shard and then blast Weavile with a Head Smash.
CAP21 is bulky enough to take the hits it needs to, but it isn't too bulky to wall Pokemon that should threaten it. Sweeper Excadrill doesn't even need to Earthquake to OHKO CAP21, while support Excadrill can tank a hit and pick CAP21 off with EQ. Scarf Excadrill will need Earthquake, as Scarf Iron Head will never OHKO. I'm not posting Garchomp calculations because it's obvious: Chomp clicks EQ, CAP21 dies. Simple as that. Same deal with Landorus-T: there isn't anything CAP21 can do to not get killed by a Quake. Ferrothorn surprisingly can't OHKO CAP21 with Gyro Ball, but unless CAP21 has a way to 2HKO Ferrothorn it will still lose to it. Mega Metagross, on the other hand, most certainly will OHKO CAP21 with any STAB move not named Bullet Punch. Speaking of Bullet Punch, Mega Scizor isn't OHKOing CAP21 with it. However, since CAP21 isn't OHKOing back it will still fall to the bug one-on-one. Mega Scizor doesn't really want to switch into CAP21, though. Choice Band Scizor will almost always OHKO.
CAP21 takes most neutral hits and falls to super-effective ones. Life Orb Bisharp OHKOs CAP21, Black Glasses CAP21 does not. Even Hoopa-Unbound's most powerful commonly seen attack fails to OHKO us. The only real exception is that Mega Medicham will OHKO CAP21 with High Jump Kick. Don't switch into Mega Medicham. Even weaker Earthquakes, like 0 Attack Tyranitar's, are going to OHKO. The only Earthquake CAP21 is going to survive is from a negative nature Mega Charizard Y. Bottom line for CAP21 is to stay away from Iron Heads, Earthquakes, and Mega Medicham. Anything else should be livable.
Special Attack:
If you're wondering about CAP21's Special Attack, you're probably already polljumping to where we give the base form Refrigerate as a Secondary Ability so we can blast Ground-types with Refrigerate Hyper Voices. Since I'm the Ability Leader, I could totally make that happen. I dare the TL to veto it. You hear that, jas61292? Come fucking at me bro. I'll fight you. I'll also assume that our Movepool Leader is competent enough to disallow all Physical Normal-type coverage when this Pokemon gets Refrigerate. Let's see how that goes.
252 SpA Refrigerate Cradily Hyper Voice vs. 252 HP / 76 SpD Garchomp: 304-360 (72.3 - 85.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Refrigerate Cradily Hyper Voice vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Garchomp: 332-392 (92.9 - 109.8%) -- 93.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252 SpA Refrigerate Cradily Hyper Voice vs. 252 HP / 112 SpD Hippowdon: 164-194 (39 - 46.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252 SpA Refrigerate Cradily Hyper Voice vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Landorus-T: 348-412 (108.7 - 128.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 SpA Refrigerate Cradily Hyper Voice vs. 252 HP / 8 SpD Landorus-T: 344-408 (90 - 106.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
252 SpA Refrigerate Cradily Hyper Voice vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Gliscor: 368-436 (103.9 - 123.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 SpA Refrigerate Cradily Hyper Voice vs. 244 HP / 192+ SpD Gliscor: 268-316 (76.1 - 89.7%) -- 18.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
Better not give this thing a Life Orb...
Special Defense:
As with Physical defense, there are a million different EV spreads that this Pokemon could use. I'm only going to be running calcs for 4 HP / 0 SpD, but like usual adding in some HP EVs will naturally decrease the damage received by a few percent.
168+ SpA Pixilate Mega Altaria Hyper Voice vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 79-93 (22 - 25.9%) -- 6.1% chance to 4HKO
0 SpA Clefable Moonblast vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 45-53 (12.5 - 14.8%) -- possible 7HKO
252+ SpA Choice Specs Pixilate Sylveon Hyper Voice vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 127-150 (35.4 - 41.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252+ SpA Choice Specs Sylveon Psyshock vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 276-326 (77 - 91%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
232 SpA Pixilate Mega Gardevoir Hyper Voice vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 102-121 (28.4 - 33.7%) -- 0.8% chance to 3HKO
232 SpA Mega Gardevoir Psyshock vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 336-396 (93.8 - 110.6%) -- 62.5% chance to OHKO
252 SpA Mega Charizard Y Fire Blast vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily in Sun: 143-168 (39.9 - 46.9%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252 SpA Mega Charizard Y Solar Beam vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 138-163 (38.5 - 45.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
216 SpA Life Orb Tornadus-T Hurricane vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 92-109 (25.6 - 30.4%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
252 SpA Keldeo Scald vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 236-282 (65.9 - 78.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Choice Specs Keldeo Scald vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 356-420 (99.4 - 117.3%) -- 93.8% chance to OHKO
252 SpA Choice Specs Keldeo Hydro Pump vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 488-576 (136.3 - 160.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 SpA Keldeo Hydro Pump vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 324-384 (90.5 - 107.2%) -- 43.8% chance to OHKO
252 SpA Keldeo Scald vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 236-282 (65.9 - 78.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Manaphy Scald vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 200-236 (55.8 - 65.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
0 SpA Manaphy Scald vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 156-186 (43.5 - 51.9%) -- 9.4% chance to 2HKO
252+ SpA Manaphy Surf vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 246-290 (68.7 - 81%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
0 SpA Politoed Scald vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily in Rain: 216-254 (60.3 - 70.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
0 SpA Rotom-W Hydro Pump vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 224-266 (62.5 - 74.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Mega Alakazam Psychic vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 336-396 (93.8 - 110.6%) -- 62.5% chance to OHKO
252 SpA Life Orb Latios Psyshock vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 369-437 (103 - 122%) -- guaranteed OHKO
184 SpA Life Orb Latias Psyshock vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Cradily: 312-369 (87.1 - 103%) -- 25% chance to OHKO
4 SpA Mega Slowbro Scald vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 198-234 (55.3 - 65.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Heatran Earth Power vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 360-424 (100.5 - 118.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 SpA Heatran Flash Cannon vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 236-282 (65.9 - 78.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Life Orb Hoopa Unbound Dark Pulse vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 188-224 (52.5 - 62.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Life Orb Thundurus Thunderbolt vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 169-200 (47.2 - 55.8%) -- 77.7% chance to 2HKO
252 SpA Life Orb Gengar Shadow Ball vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 153-183 (42.7 - 51.1%) -- 5.9% chance to 2HKO
252+ SpA Life Orb Teravolt Kyurem-B Ice Beam vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 181-214 (50.5 - 59.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Mega Manectric Thunderbolt vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 138-163 (38.5 - 45.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252+ SpA Mega Venusaur Giga Drain vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 118-139 (32.9 - 38.8%) -- 99.2% chance to 3HKO
252 SpA Magnezone Flash Cannon vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 236-282 (65.9 - 78.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Magnezone Thunderbolt vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 135-159 (37.7 - 44.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252 SpA Choice Specs Raikou Thunderbolt vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 184-217 (51.3 - 60.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Raikou Thunderbolt vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 123-145 (34.3 - 40.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252 SpA Life Orb Serperior Leaf Storm vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 175-207 (48.8 - 57.8%) -- 96.1% chance to 2HKO
0 SpA Starmie Scald vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 156-186 (43.5 - 51.9%) -- 9.4% chance to 2HKO
252 SpA Volcarona Fire Blast vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Cradily: 84-99 (23.4 - 27.6%) -- 81.5% chance to 4HKO
No Fairy move, not even Specs Sylveon Hyper Voice, is going to legitimately threaten CAP21. However, moves like Mega Gardevoir's Psyshock are going to hurt. CAP21 wants to threaten Fairy-type Pokemon, and this spread will ensure that CAP21 isn't going to take significant damage from Fairy-type moves. Strong resisted hits like Mega Charizard Y's Fire Blast still won't be enough to 2HKO, so CAP21 will be able to switch into Mega Charizard y and defeat it even if the first Head Smash misses. No Special Flying-type moves can reasonably threaten us either. Tornadus-T is slower than CAP21 and can't reasonably damage us with Hurricane. However, Water-type attacks are going to be a problem. Keldeo's attacks are going to eat CAP21 alive. CAP21 won't have a problem with unboosted Scalds, but even a Scarfed Hydro Pump threatens to OHKO. A Choice Specs Keldeo won't even have to risk Hydro Pumping CAP21, as Specs Scald will OHKO 93.8% of the time. For CAP21 to defeat Keldeo, it's going to need to get some chip damage against it. Scarfed sets will pose a problem no matter what. Manaphy, however, is much less of a problem. CAP21 2HKOs Manaphy and no common Manaphy set will OHKO back. Manaphy is not a Pokemon we should be switching into, as CAP21 isn't going to OHKO Manaphy and two Scalds/Surfs or a +3 Scald/Surf will end CAP21. Politoed's in a similar boat: we 2HKO Politoed before it 2HKOs us. CAP21's spread can take a hit from any Water-type not named Keldeo and threaten a 2HKO or in some cases an OHKO.
Psychic-types, however, will most certainly defeat us. Mega Alakazam will OHKO CAP21 more often than not, as will Latios if it can attack us. Latias doesn't fare as well, but note that it's not explicitly mentioned as a Pokemon that should threaten us. Mega Slowbro walls CAP21 and picks it off with a pair of Scalds.
Earth Powers will naturally defeat CAP21. An offensive Heatran will OHKO our creation, but a defensive Heatran won't be able to touch us. Powerful neutral hits and even 2x effective coverage shouldn't knock CAP21 out, either. Hoopa Unbound can't KO, and Thundurus can't even always 2HKO us. There isn't a lot to say here that isn't obvious: Ineffective moves will usually 3HKO or 4HKO, unboosted neutral STAB moves will usually 3HKO, boosted neutral or powerful non-STAB 2x effective coverage will usually 2HKO, and Ground-type coverage will OHKO. There are exceptions, such as Starmie's pitifully weak Scald, but when you deal with bulky Pokemon like CAP21 that's usually how it goes. CAP21 really isn't in the business of losing to Special attacks that aren't Earth Power. While this spread has lower Special Tankiness than most, its high Speed lends itself to taking fewer hits in the first place.
All About That Base (Form)
107 Attack and 111 Speed? With Regenerator and high BP moves? Sounds like a viable Pokemon in OU to me! While it's not going to be overshadowing the Mega anytime soon, CAP21's base form could probably swing a Choice Band or Life Orb set if it wants to. It would have to run a Jolly nature and 252 Atk/Speed. Let's see how Choice Band CAP21 fares:
252 Atk Choice Band Cradily Gunk Shot vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Keldeo: 279-328 (86.3 - 101.5%) -- 12.5% chance to OHKO
252 Atk Choice Band Cradily Head Smash vs. 96 HP / 0 Def Manaphy: 321-378 (87.9 - 103.5%) -- 25% chance to OHKO
252 Atk Choice Band Cradily Gunk Shot vs. 96 HP / 0 Def Manaphy: 256-303 (70.1 - 83%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Choice Band Cradily Head Smash vs. 240 HP / 252+ Def Manaphy: 231-273 (57.6 - 68%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Choice Band Cradily Gunk Shot vs. 240 HP / 252+ Def Manaphy: 186-219 (46.3 - 54.6%) -- 98.4% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Choice Band Cradily Head Smash vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega Altaria: 294-346 (101 - 118.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 Atk Choice Band Cradily Head Smash vs. 172 HP / 0 Def Azumarill: 385-454 (100.2 - 118.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 Atk Choice Band Cradily Head Smash vs. 252 HP / 172 Def Clefable: 336-396 (85.2 - 100.5%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO
-1 252 Atk Choice Band Cradily Head Smash vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Landorus-T: 234-276 (73.1 - 86.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk Choice Band Cradily Head Smash vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Mega Slowbro: 151-178 (38.3 - 45.1%) -- 9% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock
Choice Band CAP21 isn't the perfect wallbreaker by any means: locking yourself into a recoil-causing Rock move is dangerous in a tier with Hippowdon and Ferrothorn at every turn. However, with the right coverage, a Choice Band CAP21 is going to rip holes in teams.
While there have been lots of arguments proposing a lower HP stats in order to prevent the base form from abusing Head Smash, they all seem to be assuming that CAP will be at near full health after switching in, which isn't all too realistic in my opinion.
On the contrary, we actually intend CAP to be switching in against resisted hits repeatedly as an offensive pivot and have to expect it to lose around half its health in the progress, and a lot more if opponents such as Talonflame and Tornadus can get of a second hit on the next turn. Regenerator will already have a hard time covering up for all the damage CAP receives while switching in, so assuming that it will additionally start "spamming Head Smash" with little to no consequences thanks to the 1/3rd health recovery is highly unlikely.
In fact, even spreads with a high HP stat of 110+ risk KOing themselves with Head Smash against Fire- and Flying-types after entry hazards and tanking a resisted hit, making Stone Edge a far more reliable Rock-type STAB for dealing with such threats on the base form (gaining many of the same OHKOs even at base 100 Atk). Compare that with Mega CAP who is free to throw around as many Head Smashes as it wishes, and it is hard to see how the base form might even come close to overshadowing in in that role regardless of the HP stat.
Finally, as NumberCruncher already mentioned, sets aiming to Mega evolve might benefit from a higher HP stat as well, since they would be able to utilize their obligatory Head Smash slot at least a bit more proficiently even before Mega evolving (though most of the time CAP would rather Mega evolve directly than take the recoil damage even with high HP.)
127 PT, 177 ST, 160 PS, 112 SS, 314 BSR -> 147 PT, 239 ST, 220 PS, 114 SS, 407 BSR
(all decimals rounded UP to the next whole integer)
HP: 70 HP is a low number. The basic premise is to dissuade the Base from abusing Head Smash too much, since we will be inflicting more recoil to ourselves than what Regenerator can heal. However, this goes just beyond Regenerator, as the heavy recoil makes it then easier for Base CAP to be revenge killed or forced out. The more recoil moves hurt the base, the more incentive we have to mega evolve to actually use them.
Base Atk: This number is somewhat arbitrary, but it's significantly lower than the Mega's to encourage Mega Evolution. 104 lets us still OHKO the relevant fire mons very easily, to the point where obvious calcs are not even necessary. Perhaps more significantly, it doesn't allow Manaphy to switch in still.
252 Atk CAP Base Gunk Shot vs. 96 HP / 0 Def Manaphy: 169-199 (46.3 - 54.5%)
252 Atk CAP Base Head Smash vs. 96 HP / 0 Def Manaphy: 210-247 (57.5 - 67.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
104 itself is specifically calibrated to not OHKO Latios (and Psychics are things we don't want to truly beat; more on Latios will appear later, and this calc is just a small taste in my awareness of wishing to lose to it).
252 Atk CAP Base Head Smash vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Latios: 253-298 (84.6 - 99.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Mega Atk: 134 is high enough to dissuade a large number of things from switching in, but not high enough 2HKO physically defensive Skarmory or Mega Scizor (which according to the threatlist we shouldn't truly be able to beat).
252 Atk Mega CAP Head Smash vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Skarmory: 144-169 (43.1 - 50.5%) (the odds of getting 2 high rolls is extremely unlikely, and lefties kinda screws it over anyway)
252 Atk Mega CAP Head Smash vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Mega Scizor: 144-169 (41.8 - 49.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
Note however that bulky Scizor wouldn't want to really switch in unless it has to / only after it has Mega Evolved.
Of the things that Mega Head Smash still OHKOes is Latios, and it has only a small chance to OHKO Latias assuming no hazards. Latias in turn will way more often than not OHKO us.
252 Atk Mega CAP Head Smash vs. 72 HP / 0 Def Latias: 274-324 (85.8 - 101.5%) -- 12.5% chance to OHKO
Head Smash with 134 Atk, however, is still strong enough to defeat intimidate Gyarados, etc. Basically 134 is calibrated to not beat up on the neutral steel types a lot (Skarm/Scizor) but to still be threatening to most other things that don't obviously resist it or don't have significant investment.
Base Def: 95 is a bit arbitrary since my focus was on the Mega Defense. However, it is more than adequate enough to allow us to deal with AV Azumarill's Aqua Jet, and more often than not we will survive Choice Band AJ as well.
252+ Atk Huge Power Azumarill Aqua Jet vs. 0 HP / 0 Def CAP: 168-198 (59.7 - 70.4%)
252+ Atk Choice Band Huge Power Azumarill Aqua Jet vs. 0 HP / 0 Def CAP: 252-296 (89.6 - 105.3%) -- 37.5% chance to OHKO
Mega Def: The premise here is to be able to defeat Victini but to lose to the other Psychic types, such as the Latis. With our speed, Scarf Tini is the only Tini to outspeed us, so my calc involves that.
252+ Atk Victini Zen Headbutt vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Mega CAP: 222-264 (79 - 93.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
184 SpA Life Orb Latias Psyshock vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Mega CAP: 265-315 (94.3 - 112%) -- 75% chance to OHKO
252 SpA Life Orb Latios Psyshock vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Mega CAP: 315-374 (112 - 133%) -- guaranteed OHKO
Also of note is that banded Scizor still OHKOes us.
252+ Atk Choice Band Technician Scizor Bullet Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Mega CAP: 300-354 (106.7 - 125.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
Base SDef: Once again, this is kind of arbitrary since I'm focusing primarily on the mega SDef. However, being significantly lower than the mega is meant to encourage Mega Evolution in order to deal better with bulky waters. Aside from that, 130 SDef lets us almost always survive Choice Scarf Keldeo's scald even after Stealth Rock... which isn't particularly relevant since Keldeo outspeeds the base, but eh. What's more relevant is taking Manaphy's Scald, I suppose (though I won't include that calc since Keldeo's is stronger, making such a calc obsolete).
252 SpA Keldeo Scald vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD CAP: 206-246 (73.3 - 87.5%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
Mega SDef: Really, I'm riding the limit of this because I want us to attempt to deal with the bulky waters as well as we possibly can. Having the bulk to tank Specs Keldeo Hydro Pump or Tail Glow Manaphy after it has set up is just not reasonable at all, but I've attempted to deal with pretty much most other things. Really, I wouldn't have minded a higher ST limit, but alas I have to deal with 240 and I'm maxing this shit out.
252 SpA Choice Specs Keldeo Scald vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Mega CAP: 236-278 (83.9 - 98.9%)
252 SpA Manaphy Scald vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Mega CAP in Rain: 200-236 (71.1 - 83.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
Base Spe: 101 outspeeds weird max speed Manaphy, but really this is for Zard X at +0 and for Victini. Having the speed increase when Mega Evolving is to help prioritize the Mega.
Mega Speed: 109 is to outspeed Keldeo but to be slower than the Latis. In most cases, we should be losing to the Latis, and being faster than them I think screws with out threat list way too much. If we want to lose to most psychic types, then we probably should be mart and lose to the Latis.
The thing here is that we want to lose to those Psychic-types, particularly those running Psyshock.
252 SpA Life Orb Starmie Psyshock vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Abomasnow: 283-338 (85.4 - 102.1%) -- 87.5% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252 SpA Life Orb Latios Psyshock vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Abomasnow: 343-406 (103.6 - 122.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
At the same time, though, we still have a strong enough chance to beat what we want to beat. While switching into the likes of Mega Charizard X and Azumarill can be iffy, we can usually come out on top one-on-one.
Calc dump:
252 SpA Choice Specs Keldeo Secret Sword vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Abomasnow: 207-244 (62.5 - 73.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
+1 252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Dragon Claw vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Abomasnow: 285-336 (86.1 - 101.5%) -- 12.5% chance to OHKO
252+ Atk Huge Power Azumarill Aqua Jet vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Abomasnow: 162-192 (48.9 - 58%) -- 94.9% chance to 2HKO
252+ Atk Huge Power Azumarill Play Rough vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Abomasnow: 89-105 (26.8 - 31.7%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
252 Atk Life Orb Weavile Icicle Crash vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Abomasnow: 172-203 (51.9 - 61.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Teravolt Kyurem-B Outrage vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Abomasnow: 262-310 (79.1 - 93.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Small change for the base forme as to prioritize Mega Evolving without outright losing to the threats that we'd beat in Mega forme. Essentially, the 5 point difference actually significantly effects the chances of whether CAP 21 can take on threats, with Mega Evolving noticeably increasing those chances in our favor.
+1 252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Dragon Claw vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Abomasnow: 297-351 (89.7 - 106%) -- 37.5% chance to OHKO
252+ Atk Teravolt Kyurem-B Outrage vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Abomasnow: 274-324 (82.7 - 97.8%) -- 68.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Huge Power Azumarill Knock Off vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Abomasnow: 90-107 (27.1 - 32.3%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
Factoring in Stealth Rock, we're sitting at somewhere between 55.2% and 60.4%. Then...
252+ Atk Huge Power Azumarill Aqua Jet vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Abomasnow: 168-198 (50.7 - 59.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Ok. So I'm aware that this spread is really riding the limits of ST. However, in order to reliably beat bulky Water-types, which is what this CAP intends to accomplish despite its problematic typing, we should, ideally, be able to hold our own against as many of their sets as possible. This is the minimum ST needed to be able to survive Choice Specs Keldeo's Scald without entry hazards, allowing CAP 21 to actually beat Keldeo if it doesn't get burned and at least do something to it if it does get burned.
252 SpA Choice Specs Keldeo Scald vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Megacap: 270-320 (84.1 - 99.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Yeah. Thanks to this typing, we're seriously hard-pressed to beat bulky Water-types without inflating our ST; it must be said. At this benchmark, there are a few other things we can tank–provided that we get a free switch and that Stealth Rock isn't up. No matter how high we make the ST, we're not countering Water-types. And with entry hazards, this ST may not even be enough at times. Oh boy.
Calc dump:
252 SpA Manaphy Scald vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Megacap: 152-180 (47.3 - 56%) -- 74.6% chance to 2HKO
0 SpA Rotom-W Hydro Pump vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Megacap: 170-204 (52.9 - 63.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
4 SpA Politoed Scald vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Megacap in Rain: 168-198 (52.3 - 61.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Keldeo Hydro Pump vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Megacap: 248-294 (77.2 - 91.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
+2 252 SpA Life Orb Serperior Leaf Storm vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Megacap: 265-313 (82.5 - 97.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Life Orb Thundurus Thunderbolt vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Abomasnow: 130-153 (40.4 - 47.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
(Even if we get paralyzed, we have a 98.4375% chance to beat Thundy, which keeps us consistent with our intent to take on Flying-types.)
252+ SpA Teravolt Kyurem-B Earth Power vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Megacap: 284-336 (88.4 - 104.6%) -- 25% chance to OHKO
(Not the most realistic scenario, but yeah. 25% chance to counter Cube, which is one of the things that we should be beating anyway.)
On the bright side...
252+ SpA Mega Alakazam Psychic vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Abomasnow: 288-342 (87 - 103.3%) -- 93.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
Base forme's Special Defense is way down to prioritize Mega Evolving, but it's still high enough to be able to take on certain sets provided that the RNG gods are in our favor.
252 SpA Keldeo Scald vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Basecap: 236-278 (71.2 - 83.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Manaphy Scald vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Basecap: 198-234 (59.8 - 70.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
0 SpA Rotom-W Hydro Pump vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Basecap: 224-266 (67.6 - 80.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Yes, DLC, I'm stealing your Attack and Speed stats. Sorry about that.
127 Attack is the minimum that we need to be (all but) guaranteed to beat Manaphy and Rotom-W one-on-one.
252 Atk Megacap Wood Hammer vs. 96 HP / 0 Def Manaphy: 258-304 (70.6 - 83.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 Atk burned Megacap Wood Hammer vs. 96 HP / 0 Def Manaphy: 129-152 (35.3 - 41.6%) -- 82.7% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
Factoring in Leftovers recovery and assuming there are no entry hazards on Manaphy's side, we beat it 99.952% of the time. That's good enough for me.
252 Atk Abomasnow Head Smash vs. 248 HP / 216+ Def Rotom-W: 171-202 (56.4 - 66.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Provided we don't end up with Wood Hammer, we can probably bank on beating Rotom-W. Fuck that washing machine and its Leftovers.
Even though Head Smash hits at effectively 225 Base Power factoring in the STAB boost, Wood Hammer's extra 15 Base Power can prove to be crucial in cases such as taking on Manaphy. Moreover, it's perfectly accurate, while, obviously, our other STAB moves are not. This is why I feel that using Wood Hammer in these calcs is legitimate. It falls short of OHKOing Water-types but is still enough to scare them.
What else can our STAB moves do? I think it goes without saying that we utterly wreck Fairy- and Flying-types. To put that in context:
252 Atk Megacap Gunk Shot vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Unaware Clefable: 338-402 (85.7 - 102%) -- 12.5% chance to OHKO (87.5% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock)
252 Atk Abomasnow Gunk Shot vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Sylveon: 362-428 (91.8 - 108.6%) -- 50% chance to OHKO
252 Atk Abomasnow Gunk Shot vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Mega Altaria: 260-308 (73.4 - 87%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 Atk Abomasnow Gunk Shot vs. 240 HP / 0 Def Azumarill: 464-548 (115.7 - 136.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
Head Smash calcs for Flying-types are really not necessary lol.
Now let's take a look at some of those other threats.
-1 252 Atk Megacap Head Smash vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega Manectric: 193-228 (68.6 - 81.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 Atk Megacap Gunk Shot vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega Lopunny: 204-240 (75.2 - 88.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Outspeeding these two (which I'll get to later) is moot if we can't beat them one-on-one. But we can.
252 Atk Abomasnow Head Smash vs. 248 HP / 0+ Def Mega Scizor: 165-195 (48.1 - 56.8%) -- 89.1% chance to 2HKO
Your priority user is lame. Don't even think about countering us! Just for shits and giggles, really, but not being countered by Mega Scizor is something considering how hard we lose to most other Steel-types.
Our CAP may be very vulnerable to a revenge kill after taking out a Water-type, as Ignus pointed out on the previous page. Being faster than Mega Lopunny and Mega Manectric will limit what can revenge kill CAP 21. Outside of Choice Scarf users and priority attackers, we only really get revenge killed by Mega Alakazam (which we want to lose to anyway), Mega Aerodactyl (which we lose to only if it has EQ), and Mega Beedrill (which isn't THAT relevant, but we lose if it gets a free switch).
Speed is down to 106 as to outspeed Manaphy no matter what, which means that we can Mega Evolve against it without worry. We also beat base Manectric and Lopunny, increasing our chances of beating them in one-on-one situations, as well as Mega Pinsir, so Earthquake won't exhibit a resurgence on M-Pinsir anytime soon even with CAP 21 in the metagame.
107 Attack in base forme is still enough to beat the likes of Manaphy if we don't get a Scald burn, though Mega Evolving is still an incentive to give ourselves a cushion should we get burned.
252 Atk Abomasnow Head Smash vs. 96 HP / 0 Def Manaphy: 214-253 (58.6 - 69.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
I've updated my post with justification for every stat in both Mega and Base forme. I'll say though, me and HeaL have incredibly similar spreads, especially with Speed and Attack stats. Great minds thing alike, I guess?
I can see in several submissions that doing well against Choice Band Talonflame is a big priority, and although CB Talon is actually not super common, I can understand wanting to make sure we can beat every Talonflame, every time, especially the ones that are strongest on turn 1. So I upped the Defense of my spread by 5 to hit the bare minimum tankiness to do all that. I know I cautioned against surviving strong super-effective attacks and this updated spread is no longer reliably OHKO'd from full health by M-Scizor's Bullet Punch, but I am comfortable with the damage it still can do and I believe my spread still stands out for its lower PT compared to others.
Overall I actually like quite a few other submissions; it's going to be very difficult to vote on these.
Since I really have not stated it (though I have implied it), I do not think an emphasis on speed is particularly necessary for this CAP. Nobody said we had to outspeed the Pokemon we threaten, such as Manaphy and Keldeo. We only have to threaten them, and we do not necessarily need to do this by outspeeding them. Keep in mind we still have the CAP's movepool undecided, and while we may not necessarily be able to threaten these mons instantly, it would still allow us to cater our CAP to whatever we want it to threaten. I personally think bringing out the raw attack power plays to the strengths of our typing better, and forcing mons like Manaphy and Keldeo out can still be done even without outspeeding them, even if relying on speed is the most convenient option right now.
Since I really have not stated it (though I have implied it), I do not think an emphasis on speed is particularly necessary for this CAP. Nobody said we had to outspeed the Pokemon we threaten, such as Manaphy and Keldeo. We only have to threaten them, and we do not necessarily need to do this by outspeeding them. Keep in mind we still have the CAP's movepool undecided, and while we may not necessarily be able to threaten these mons instantly, it would still allow us to cater our CAP to whatever we want it to threaten. I personally think bringing out the raw attack power plays to the strengths of our typing better, and forcing mons like Manaphy and Keldeo out can still be done even without outspeeding them, even if relying on speed is the most convenient option right now.
With 100 HP and 120 SpD
252 SpA Choice Specs Keldeo Hydro Pump vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD CAP: 338-402 (83.6 - 99.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Even at 202 ST, we still need full tank Careful Nature with only 4 invested in Attack to dodge an OHKO from Hydro Pump on the Specs set. Even if we do, it's unlikely without forcing a Super effective attack onto the set that we actually OHKO back. If we want Adamant and full attack investment, this is the lovely little number we get:
252 SpA Choice Specs Keldeo Hydro Pump vs. 4 HP / 252 SpD Abomasnow: 336-396 (83.5 - 98.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
That is 130 HP and 140 SpD, or 280 ST for the same result. We at least want to outspeed the Specs, so that Keldeo actually feels like its under some threat of dying.
With 100 HP and 120 SpD
252 SpA Choice Specs Keldeo Hydro Pump vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD CAP: 338-402 (83.6 - 99.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Even at 202 ST, we still need full tank Careful Nature with only 4 invested in Attack to dodge an OHKO from Hydro Pump on the Specs set. Even if we do, it's unlikely without forcing a Super effective attack onto the set that we actually OHKO back. If we want Adamant and full attack investment, this is the lovely little number we get:
252 SpA Choice Specs Keldeo Hydro Pump vs. 4 HP / 252 SpD Abomasnow: 336-396 (83.5 - 98.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
That is 130 HP and 140 SpD, or 280 ST for the same result. We at least want to outspeed the Specs, so that Keldeo actually feels like its under some threat of dying.
That is because you are looking at this from a very linear perspective. Who said we needed > base 108 speed? Our movepool has been undecided for this CAP, meaning options like Rock Polish, status moves, hazard moves, and other forms of putting pressure on Keldeo, even if you do not necessarily use them while pony is on the field, are still technically available. All of these would put enough pressure on opposing Keldeo / Manaphy / etc. to discourage them from switching in. I recognize this may be interpreted as poll jumping, but I have no intention of doing such. I am merely trying to point out that our options have not been completely limited at this point.
Mr Holiday - The lower Speed stat is certainly a defining part of your spread. As such, I feel like the specific reasoning for it should be fleshed out a bit more. For example, one of the prominent foes CAP 21 is intended to threaten is Mega Altaria, which happens to sit at exactly the same Speed tier (Base 80). This leaves potential for Speed ties (depending on the nature and investment of both), which could make the matchup between EQ Mega Altaria and CAP 21 sketchier than it needs to be. Some other notable foes around the same area are Hoopa-U (Base 80), Dragonite (Base 80), and Gyarados (Base 81). You definitely have some wiggle room with your PS/BSR, so I think it'd be worthwhile to take your spread's Speed tier into deeper consideration before finalizing it.
After considering what you said, and playing with the numbers a bit, I settled upon this spread. 84 Speed isn't much faster, but it does keep us from being threatened to much by things like Altaria, Gyarados, etc. I didn't want to go to much faster because the required ATK drop is actually rather significant; just going up to 86 Speed requires dropping Attack to 119, which I felt was a bit to weak. I could have gone 123 Attack and 85 Speed, but the difference was negligible, so I decided to opt for a bit more power. 84 Speed with a neutral Nature and max EVs lets us hit 267 Speed, enough to outspeed any neutral nature, 0 EV Base 115 Speed pokemon. I feel like this is more than fast enough for anything we might need this CAP to do. Meanwhile, 124 Base Attack is still high enough to murder damn near everything on our threats list, and then some. I boosted Special Attack a bit because, I'll be honest, I like nice looking numbers, at least for BSTs, and since it doesn't really improve SS that much, and it's still well within the limits, I decided "Why not?" I adjusted the Mega spread to account for changes made to the Base Form, but it's otherwise exactly the same as before. Other than that, everything's basically the same.
Tagging Alfalfa, vyomov, Deck Knight, Buzzer_Error, Da Pizza Man, Dogfish44, and Full_Korbe as a friendly reminder to put Final Submission (in bold) at the top of your post if you'd like to be considered for the slate. Submissions cannot be slated if they lack this indication.
The thread will be closing this evening, and the slate will be up very soon after this.
Alright! We had 16 Final Submissions this time around, and many of them were quite unique and well-justified, which made it rather difficult on my end when it came time to decide which of them should be slated. Without any further ado, here is our slate, in the order of their Final Submission posts:
Congrats to these users! There were a total of eight submissions that were slated this time around, which is definitely on the high end, but I genuinely feel that each of these submissions were justified quite well and managed to sufficiently distinguish themselves from other submissions. I included a wide variety of Speed tiers for the voters to choose from, as there was no clear consensus here, as well as a mix of spreads that decided to focus more towards bulk or more towards sheer attacking prowess. It is now in the hands of the voters which of these submissions is chosen as CAP 21's official stat spread!
To those that weren't slated, the main reasons for this were either that I felt the justification behind your spread was a bit lacking, or that it was ultimately too similar to another submission to justify putting it on the slate. If you had any specific questions for me about this, you can find me on PS/IRC.
Thank you to everyone that made a submission and participated in the discussion! Tagging jas61292 for his final thoughts.
I already talked with sparktrain a bunch about this, so we are very much on the same page here. I did mention to sparktrain that I do not love such a large slate, but as I mentioned earlier in the project, I would only remove something from the slate if I believed it would be anti concept, or a similar problem, such as being something I viewed as BSR abuse in this case. All of these are good, and each has its own unique aspects. And, with that said, while this is a very large slate, there is not a single one on it that I believe to be a problem, so I am going to leave it as is.
There were a lot of good entries here, so making this cut was not easy. Thanks for all the submissions.
