NOC Fire and Ice Mafia: Fire and Ice tie, the village loses.

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It is a standard NOC rule. The Diabolic Gift posted the rules in the sign-up thread, but failed to post them in the OP of this one or the usual reminders that you can't post at night. Nonetheless, the rule was indeed laid down that there is to be no talking during night, so I recommend not posting again. (Underline mine, bold theirs.)

Rules:
Majority: in order for someone to be lynched over 50% of players must lynch them before the deadline. If the deadline is reached, nobody will be lynched.
The nightkill of the Fire Mafia and the Ice Mafia will fail if both groups of mafia target the same person.
The mafia groups are not immune to night kill.
Card Flip: Yes, You will see roles when a player dies.
You will not know which team killed which player.
No Editing or Deleting posts, first result is warning, next is modkill.
No Talking during night.

No Talking outside of the thread unless you're mafia talking to your partner at night.
 

Da Letter El

Officially internet famous
is a Community Leader Alumnus
guess i was wrong about spiffy

but spiffy was wrong about haunted so all is well

What I get from the night kills are that team 1 are pussies and team 2 are bad at mafia.

gale is pretty much confirmed town at this point
 

UncleSam

Leading this village
is a Forum Moderator Alumnus
Not for anything but Spiffy the villager was equally on board for that lynch (and you yourself thought he was mafia due to his horrendous play). Sigh.

I think the biggest question to answer right now is: why would Spiffy and, particularly, ButteredToast be killed by the mafia? Like Spiffy had some reads to sort through, but ButteredToast seems so...random. Neither was a hugely positive contributor and Spiffy pushed the HD lynch every bit as much as I did.

In any case I think the operative thing to do for now is to go back through both Spiffy's and BT's posts and responses to them. I highly doubt the mafia just randomly picked these out of a hat so either A. the mafia read one or the other as the doc or B. one or both of them were onto something.
 

Wayan Vistar

formerly Flyhn
See guys? The one time i'm gonna say something original, i get ninja'd by US.

These kills just seem baffling to me, particularly Spiffy... why would mafia kill such a strong supporter of the HD lynch... though BT makes a little sense, as it gives us very little info, something the mafia would definitely want from a kill in my experience on Epicmafia.

I believe these kills, as well as the HD flip, should be the most important points of discussion today, but of course not the ONLY points of discussion

(inb4 i get jumped on for "DRAMATICALLY" changing my demeanor, i just wanna actually be useful ;-;)
 

Yeti

dark saturday
is a Community Contributor Alumnus
If I was mafia I would have left Spiffy alive, I think there were enough people suspicious of him at some point during the day that a mislynch could've happened. Probably without that much push from Mafia 1.

Mafia 2 seems to not be very intelligent. ButteredToast is a weird kill. I guess they were trying to avoid someone likely to be doctored, and he was definitely not going to be protected? Still, there were so many better targets. PokeguyNXB is a solid candidate to be on this one.

I want to take a long, hard look at UncleSam today. I remain unconvinced by his lynch on Haunted Diamond. The guy was seriously indeterminable as mafia on Day One. He played like a fool, not like a scum. He had NO scumtells about his partner. Unless you considered the people he suggested to be protected and he was stuffing his partner in as one of the two. But that's not what happened. Sam was right, I suppose, in that I was defending my teammate when I stated I wasn't in favor of a lynch. Except neither of us is mafia.

I see Sam's lynch as picking on a bad who could never defend himself from Sam. If a townie did try to stand up for HD or counter Sam's points, he could do exactly what he did to me and insist that person is HD's scumbuddy. I don't find it to be a particularly town move, especially how he sort of just said "this day is ending in its use, we need a lynch, I am picking." And low and behold, it was the mislynch I had speculated it would be all game.

The only thing is, which kill was UncleSam responsible for? Unless he killed Spiffy in a panic move, to sell "look! the other villager who was super in favor of HD was town, me too!" to us. I don't think he would have made either of these kills. But, maybe he let his noob partner pick so he could appear as exactly that.

Also want to look at Celever who was feuding with HD all game, and, ahem, look who flipped town.
 

UncleSam

Leading this village
is a Forum Moderator Alumnus
Alright what I'm getting from a cursory re-reading of Spiffy's posts is the following possible points of interest that might've made him a target:
-He called out Acidphoenix and Pokeguy multiple times while almost everyone else was content to let them fly under the radar. I'm looking particularly at this post and this one.
-He throws a lot of shade on Celever's play rather than his buddying of me, which is something I started to pick up on and mimic later on as well (see the second above post for this as well).
-He calls out Pokeguy in this post and this one.
-He defends ButteredToast from Celever here.
-He buddies me, calls out Pokeguy (noticing a trend?) and pressure votes DLE here.

In terms of relations with users, I'd argue that Pokeguy, Celever, and Acidphoenix all had reason to want Spiffy dead, while for DLE it would've been neutral (ie points both in favor and against) and basically null for Gale/Yeti/Walrein/Cancerous because I can't find much of a strong connection between Spiffy and any of them in recent memory. I'd say that ButteredToast (RIP), myself, and UltrasPlot would have little to no reason to kill him (though out of the three of us, me and Spiffy initially argued a bit when he first subbed in, whereas he never had any issues with UltrasPlot/TIK outside of thinking TIK was an idiot for unvoting because I followed the HD vote.

I will look over BT's posts and respond to posts made since I started this one in the future, but I'd like to get this out for people to think about and respond to for the moment.

For now, Lynch PokeguyNXB. You clearly had a lot of motivation to want Spiffy dead and I think we can all agree that if you are mafia he would've been near the top of your hitlist. Celever and acidphoenix have a lot to answer for too, and I expect contributions from them both ASAP.
 

Da Letter El

Officially internet famous
is a Community Leader Alumnus
The only sort of kind of read that ButteredToast had was a light scum read on Gale, and disliked the way that Sam, Yeti, and Celever had played but didn't offer much in the way on reads on any of them. Pretty sure BT is a pussy "I want to hit a person I think is town but won't be protected" kill anyway so unless Gale's the best mafia member on his team and got worried about a ButteredToast push on him, I think the only read we get off a ButteredToast kill is that the team that made it doesn't like taking risks.

Spiffy kill is weird; I think the first player that jumps to mind that makes that kill is Sam but considering I'm not mafia reading him all that much I don't see who makes that. But spiffy actually has some reads so I'll go through those in a bit.

UncleSam pretend you're mafia. Do you agree with my assessment that you'd probably consider a Spiffy kill as one of your top 2 kill targets
 

Wayan Vistar

formerly Flyhn
Lol UncleSam you think i'm dumb enough to be that obvious, love ya too <3

Okay, so Spiffy was really fosing me hard, and you're saying i'd kill him for it? #1 rule, NEVER kill someone for fosing you. That's like wearing a sign that says "I'm scum, lynch me", and why in my right mind would i do that? I wouldn't. And sure, you could say this is WIFOM, but c'mon, it's Mafia 101
 

Yeti

dark saturday
is a Community Contributor Alumnus
Okay, so Spiffy was really fosing me hard, and you're saying i'd kill him for it? #1 rule, NEVER kill someone for fosing you. That's like wearing a sign that says "I'm scum, lynch me", and why in my right mind would i do that? I wouldn't. And sure, you could say this is WIFOM, but c'mon, it's Mafia 101
So you killed ButteredToast then, yea?
 

Da Letter El

Officially internet famous
is a Community Leader Alumnus
Oh missed where sam talked about spiffy kill motivations.

Yeah no sam, I think you consider that kill for a few reasons and the fact you disagree with that makes me leery

1. I think the only kills you seriously consider that night are Yeti, me, Walrein, and Spiffy because you would want to get rid of strong players so that you can dominate the discussion. Walrein's been idle because life, I think you don't kill me because you're afraid too many people town read me and I'll be doctored, I think Yeti is probably the person you would most likely kill for being a pretty vocal player who clearly would have no problems pushing a lynch on you and probably won't be protected, and then Spiffy is probably second on that list in case you're afraid that I or someone else would call you out on a Yeti kill.

2. On a lesser note you might have been trying to use the spiffy death as motivation to push a lynch agenda. The spiffy death fits as you explain it fits into the same narrative you've largely been pushing of pokeguy/celever/acid being bad that you had before which is a fairly interesting coincidence, but probably not something you would think about much knowing how you would probably approach a noc. But still a possibility.
 

UncleSam

Leading this village
is a Forum Moderator Alumnus
Alright responses to posts made since I started that one first, then I'll get to BT:
guess i was wrong about spiffy

but spiffy was wrong about haunted so all is well

What I get from the night kills are that team 1 are pussies and team 2 are bad at mafia.

gale is pretty much confirmed town at this point
I agree with you on the kills more or less, though I question your assumption that Gale is 'confirmed town' at this point. I could definitely see Gale killing ButteredToast, for example, and it is interesting that you stated that your Gale reads would be 'null' early on but are now pushing him into a position where perhaps people won't question him as much when he plays strangely and will just write it off as 'Gale being Gale', which, while there is some merit to it, can't just be used to give him a free pass.
See guys? The one time i'm gonna say something original, i get ninja'd by US.

These kills just seem baffling to me, particularly Spiffy... why would mafia kill such a strong supporter of the HD lynch... though BT makes a little sense, as it gives us very little info, something the mafia would definitely want from a kill in my experience on Epicmafia.

I believe these kills, as well as the HD flip, should be the most important points of discussion today, but of course not the ONLY points of discussion

(inb4 i get jumped on for "DRAMATICALLY" changing my demeanor, i just wanna actually be useful ;-;)
I really hate this post and frankly this is one of the reasons that I voted you in my last one. It looks pre-written slightly, and again contributes nothing. Post some reads please, who do you think is mafia and why?
If I was mafia I would have left Spiffy alive, I think there were enough people suspicious of him at some point during the day that a mislynch could've happened. Probably without that much push from Mafia 1.

Mafia 2 seems to not be very intelligent. ButteredToast is a weird kill. I guess they were trying to avoid someone likely to be doctored, and he was definitely not going to be protected? Still, there were so many better targets. PokeguyNXB is a solid candidate to be on this one.

I want to take a long, hard look at UncleSam today. I remain unconvinced by his lynch on Haunted Diamond. The guy was seriously indeterminable as mafia on Day One. He played like a fool, not like a scum. He had NO scumtells about his partner. Unless you considered the people he suggested to be protected and he was stuffing his partner in as one of the two. But that's not what happened. Sam was right, I suppose, in that I was defending my teammate when I stated I wasn't in favor of a lynch. Except neither of us is mafia.

I see Sam's lynch as picking on a bad who could never defend himself from Sam. If a townie did try to stand up for HD or counter Sam's points, he could do exactly what he did to me and insist that person is HD's scumbuddy. I don't find it to be a particularly town move, especially how he sort of just said "this day is ending in its use, we need a lynch, I am picking." And low and behold, it was the mislynch I had speculated it would be all game.

The only thing is, which kill was UncleSam responsible for? Unless he killed Spiffy in a panic move, to sell "look! the other villager who was super in favor of HD was town, me too!" to us. I don't think he would have made either of these kills. But, maybe he let his noob partner pick so he could appear as exactly that.

Also want to look at Celever who was feuding with HD all game, and, ahem, look who flipped town.
I agree that Spiffy was a weird kill and it's the reason that I analyzed his posts first (also because there was so much more to go on then from BT), and looks a lot more deliberate tbh. I agree that taking a look at me makes sense given the mislynch, but you also note (correctly) that neither of those kills makes any sense if I'm mafia unless I'm playing some weird reverse-psychology mindtricks. Like, Spiffy was practically my biggest supporter during Day 1 and why would mafia me kill ButteredToast when he would probably be one of the easier mislynches on the town from my perspective?

As for the lynch on Haunted Diamond, obviously I was wrong but his play was so horrible that I can't really see any reason to think he wasn't mafia. You yourself thought he was mafia and so did lots of other people. He dropped every possible scumtell along the way, played exactly as he did as mafia in the last game, refused to contribute, and finally threatened to rage-sub. I can say that I'm really angry with Haunted Diamond for not even remotely trying to contribute because I can honestly say that I was looking for a reason to pressure Acidphoenix/Pokeguy a lot more yesterday, but he just refused to be helpful or contribute at all. As for the theory that I 'let my noob partner pick the kill'...would you seriously think I'd do that if I was mafia? You know the answer to that is no, so why even bring it up lol.

I agree that Celever absolutely has to be one of the focii of discussion today, particularly his relation SPIFFY however, not Haunted Diamond. Haunted was playing so badly that I don't think anyone feuding with him or disliking his play was indicative of mafia-ness (if anything, probably the opposite honestly). Celever however had among the most reason in the game to kill Spiffy.

UncleSam Celever
Explain yourselves.
Answered this above but honestly I think HD has a lot more explaining to do in postgame then myself, or any other villager who voted him. His play was total garbage and reeked of passive scum.
The only sort of kind of read that ButteredToast had was a light scum read on Gale, and disliked the way that Sam, Yeti, and Celever had played but didn't offer much in the way on reads on any of them. Pretty sure BT is a pussy "I want to hit a person I think is town but won't be protected" kill anyway so unless Gale's the best mafia member on his team and got worried about a ButteredToast push on him, I think the only read we get off a ButteredToast kill is that the team that made it doesn't like taking risks.

Spiffy kill is weird; I think the first player that jumps to mind that makes that kill is Sam but considering I'm not mafia reading him all that much I don't see who makes that. But spiffy actually has some reads so I'll go through those in a bit.

UncleSam pretend you're mafia. Do you agree with my assessment that you'd probably consider a Spiffy kill as one of your top 2 kill targets
Again, I find it interesting that you're pseudo-protecting Gale. Interesting connection that seems to be forming there (or rather that I hadn't seen previously). That being said I don't think that a DLE+Gale team has much of a reason to kill either Spiffy or BT (though SOME reason for both), and I could totally see you picking a kill and then calling your own mafia team 'bad' because you'd find that hilarious. I think it's very unlikely though, and I find you to be one of the most towny players so far in any case (Gale not nearly as much as you seem to find him or as I found him near the end of yesterday, however).

I absolutely 100% disagree that mafia me would kill Spiffy. He was basically with me the entirety of the first day, he would've shared a LOT of the heat I'm sure to get for the Haunted Diamond lynch, and he pointed out how bullshit the Celever+UncleSam mafia theories were (while still accusing Celever; he was the ONLY PERSON the entire day to attack Celever for play not surrounding myself). Mafia me would kill Celever for obvious reasons if he wasn't my partner because I'm getting so much shit for his buddying me, and UltrasPlot/you (DLE)/Yeti if my partner were Celever. There's zero fucking chance that I'd kill Spiffy or ButteredToast.

Lol UncleSam you think i'm dumb enough to be that obvious, love ya too <3

Okay, so Spiffy was really fosing me hard, and you're saying i'd kill him for it? #1 rule, NEVER kill someone for fosing you. That's like wearing a sign that says "I'm scum, lynch me", and why in my right mind would i do that? I wouldn't. And sure, you could say this is WIFOM, but c'mon, it's Mafia 101
Another terrible post. Post some reads, answer my questions, stop posting fluff.

Also posting my agreement for Gale Wing Srock 's proposal that we let the newbies lead the lynch (for obvious reasons)

Currently reading Gale and Da Letter El as town. Celever and UncleSam as scum.
What about letting newbies lead the lynch is 'obvious'??? What are you talking about? Firstly no one is 'leading the lynch' and no one is deciding who 'leads the lynch', everyone is posting who they feel is mafia and why and once a large enough group of people come to a consensus we will vote someone, regardless of who suggested it first and regardless of who voted first. There will not be a 'lynch leader', and there shouldn't be. There will definitely be people more and less in favor of the lynch today, but that's different.

I think DLE is strong town though his buddying Gale is worrying me. I'm not reading Gale nearly as town as I was near the end of yesterday because I think that he's getting too much of a free pass for a lot of weird shit he did earlier on because 'lol Gale', but as I said earlier in this post, I don't think that DLE+Gale kills either of those two and I don't think that DLE is likely scum with anyone else among the actives (though Yeti is a slight possibility on that front).

I will continue responding and look for BT's posts but I want to post this because this is already getting super long.
 

Yeti

dark saturday
is a Community Contributor Alumnus
1. I think the only kills you seriously consider that night are Yeti, me, Walrein, and Spiffy because you would want to get rid of strong players so that you can dominate the discussion. Walrein's been idle because life, I think you don't kill me because you're afraid too many people town read me and I'll be doctored, I think Yeti is probably the person you would most likely kill for being a pretty vocal player who clearly would have no problems pushing a lynch on you and probably won't be protected, and then Spiffy is probably second on that list in case you're afraid that I or someone else would call you out on a Yeti kill.
I disagree Sam kills me. I think he considers it, but as the only person who was really opposing him, it's too obvious. He doesn't want to risk someone will call him for it. If Haunted Diamond flipped mafia he 100% doesn't kill me and tries to shove his dick down my throat the next day and lynch me off. When HD flipped village he had to think, is she going to counter-push on me for this? But will it be too obvious if he goes for me? And I think he decides it will be, and hopes he can make nice. UncleSam seems to think he would have considered killing me, more than I think he would have. I think he's confident enough in his own loudness he can stave me off, but SOMEONE would call him out if I did die.

That said I am somewhat surprised I survived the night. I did a few things to make myself look not so blatantly-town as I was being read in the hopes the mafia wouldn't kill me off like what happens whenever I tryhard and get my notesheet going >:( I think at least one mafia is comprised of two people I have not pointed much of a finger at and they didn't feel overly threatened. Maybe someone like DLE himself. I still find it hard to believe, with 3 noob-villagers dead (Spiffy subbed for a noob), one of DLE/Sam/myself is not scum, simply due to the odds one of us wasn't RNGed. Knowing it's not myself, I am forced to suspect one of the other two is pretty definitively a scum.

Celever is probably 1 of the 4 scum. PokeguyNXB has been commenting more since this day began than he did all the previous day. Makes me think he has a partner who told him to say more, even if he doesn't have the elaborate tl;drs Sam and I do. If he's saying something he will look better. But this is also a marked change in character.

I do agree with UncleSam that I have this weird feeling about a Gale/DLE scumteam. DLE refused to read Gale all day citing some weird blindness about him and has felt sort of protective. Then Gale does that weird "I bet DLE is HD's partner, let's lynch him!" move that makes NO SENSE at the end of the day, while DLE has been acting as a guidance to Gale all game, and Gale calmed down and played accordingly. Like he was taking blatant cues from his partner.
 

Wayan Vistar

formerly Flyhn
Oh... reads. No playing around my weaknesses then, i see. Who do i believe is scum? Actually... i'd say it's between Celever and US (omg, Poke fosses the same people as someone else! THEY'RE PARTNERS GG!!!!!)... that flip y'know. I'm probably lynching between these two, but i'll give Celever a chance to post before i place a vote. (and no UncleSam , this isn't OMGUS)

PokeguyNXB has been commenting more since this day began than he did all the previous day. Makes me think he has a partner who told him to say more, even if he doesn't have the elaborate tl;drs Sam and I do.
Called it.
 

UncleSam

Leading this village
is a Forum Moderator Alumnus
Alright reviewing BT's posts now and I will see if I come to the same conclusions as DLE did. I will respond to whatever posts are made in response to my above mega-post when I'm done analyzing this.
-BT goes pretty hard after Gale (and the bandwagon on me early on in general) here.
-Jesus christ he posted a lot of long 'idk' fluff...
-BT defended me and himself here.
-He says multiple times that HD/Gale/Acidphoenix fucked up super hard regardless of their alignment, such as here. He also accuses me of 'needing' control regardless of the game or my alignment :(
-He didn't like Yeti's attitude towards him but didn't think much of it with regards to this game here.

Idk this is basically the reason I try to really make people give reads; it makes it so much easier to go back through them with the knowledge of what you are (whether village OR mafia) and use them to find further mafia.

For now I think that Pokeguy should be pressured hard to make real reads, Celever needs to be pressured into actually contributing (especially now that he can't just shout at HD and shouldn't be shouting at Gale nearly as much), and Acidphoenix needs to start posting instead of active lurking. Would appreciate if people would at least help me call these fuckers out for their bullshit if not being willing to pressure vote them (note that majority is now FIVE however, so don't go past two pressure votes ever!).
 
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