NOC Fire and Ice Mafia: Fire and Ice tie, the village loses.

[realiti]

Also, does Yeti leaving mean that she will be unable to vote? It would be really annoying if we would be able to reach majority but couldn't because of internet issues.

 

[jumpluff]

UncleSam: opinions on a potential Celever lynch? Would you like to see the UTO lynch through, or do you think it's worth trying to drum up a majority against Celever? (If we vote together, we need three more votes. U-Turn Out will probably vote with us if only to save their own skin. So then we just need two of sunny/rssp1/acid/DLE to vote Celever.) Do you think Celever is scum? I don't need anything more than y/n answers really, just this information would be as useful to me as sunny's and rssp1's votes to figure out whether to move mine onto UTO, keep it on DLE, or try to get a certain set of users onto Celever, since we need to be calculated in how we hit majority.

 

[jumpluff]

Also, does Yeti leaving mean that she will be unable to vote? It would be really annoying if we would be able to reach majority but couldn't because of internet issues.

I am operating under this assumption. I would be very pleased if she came back and voted, but I do not count on it because she said she would be back at a time after the previously set deadline. I do not think it is likely we can get an extension for Yeti to be able to vote, although one more day would probably be fairest, but, like, whatever at this point, she had a chance to vote before she left and she chose not to.

Thug I hope the trip to Oregon is going ok, you're not missing anything lmfao

 

[UncleSam]

Hopefully Yeti will be able to at least post a vote from a phone or something, but we can't count on her vote as of now.

U-Turn Out the reason I'm voting you is because I felt that Walrein was incredibly scummy prior to subbing, I think that your posts read as looking more helpful than they actually are, and you fit with a decent number of possible scumteams (not DLE/acidphoenix/probably Celever but just about anyone else is feasible; that being said I honestly don't even remember half the shit I'd been thinking about regarding this game and who thinks what about who because of the long break and I'm unlikely to go back and revisit everything due to having literally anything else to do). Could you do me a favor and post a super quick summary of your reads of everyone?

That being said I think that acidphoenix might be a better lynch option if only because the risk of not hitting majority on him is smaller. For example, let's assume that jumpluff is UTO's partner. She will probably refuse to vote him, acidphoenix is AFK, Yeti is AFK for all we know, and he obviously won't vote himself. That would mean getting literally everyone else (Da Letter El, rssp1, sunny004, and Celever) to vote for him, and while I'm confident that whichever two of DLE/Celever/jumpluff who aren't a UTO partner in this case would vote him, I'm not confident that everyone will get their shit together.

Additionally, in the event that acidphoenix is a villager, it's infinitely better to mislynch him now rather than lose due to him being AFK and us not having a reliable host/sub AND because honestly I'm not sure if the precise outcome of this lynch will matter after the two mafia kills anyway (ie lynching a mafia reduces the odds of the mafia killing each other; I'd bet that the numbers tomorrow will most likely be 4/1/1 or 4/2/0 regardless of whether we lynch correctly today or not).

While these are fucking awful reasons to vote for someone and I think it is very likely UTO is mafia, I'm not sure if lynching UTO is the best option. I'll think on it but I'm thinking that lynching acidphoenix is about as good an option. He has a higher likelihood of being town than either UTO or DLE in my opinion, but he also has a basically zero chance of contributing if he is town, and as I said earlier, I think that lynching purely based off of probability of being mafia is not the best chance to win, since it's certain we can't 1v2 the mafias in any case.

I've tagged basically everyone in this post already but jumpluff for completeness. Now that I have everyone's attention:

In the next 24 hours, post a comprehensive list of your reads on EVERYONE with as much reasoning as you can muster, and place a vote on someone unless that person is literally L-1 away from majority (I'll accept L-2 as an excuse if you aren't sure who you want to lynch and will be ready to post a vote before deadline).

I'll go first.

I've already explained why I think/thought U-Turn Out is suspicious (I say thought because I don't remember all of my reasoning and can't be assed to dig through a ton of old posts to remember it), but needless to say i think that UTO is very probably mafia and could have a few different partners, with jumpluff and sunny004 the best candidates (sunny004 subbed for Pokeguy, right?).

Yeti could basically only be mafia with jumpluff in my opinion. While this is a team that is definitely possible, I think that jumpluff is not likely mafia and even if jumpluff is mafia then there's at least a decent chance UTO is jumpluff's partner. In short I think Yeti is about as clean as anyone is at this point, though if jumpluff flips mafia then she jumps right into the probable mafia column. Obviously a terrible lynch today.

jumpluff is likely village but there are a number of possible mafia partners which would make sense at the same time. A garbage lynch option because jumpluff is basically the only regular contributor and hasn't dropped any real scumtells, just a few partnertells.

Da Letter El I've been wary on for a while and he hasn't done anything to dissuade me from that opinion, though the more I think about it the more I could see his play being consistent with him being village combined with his general level of inactivity lately. He was inactive previously when he was active, though, so the fact he's inactive now does nothing to dissuade me from any of the reasons I previously thought he was scummy, I just don't think he's any more so either. An acceptable lynch target but not ideal.

Celever has been schizophrenic this game. At various times I've convinced myself that he fits best as village, the Spiffy-killer mafia and the BT-killer mafia. Process of elimination says that something has to give and so the numbers suggest he is more likely mafia than not, but I don't think he is an ideal lynch target (just like DLE), because I could see him being village and think that the flips and kills of the coming lynch/night will reveal almost as much about him as they will about jumpluff. I could get on board with lynching him if someone made a strong argument about behavior that I either missed when I was active or didn't bother to read carefully since I've more or less stopped reading this thread seriously.

rssp1/UltrasPlot I still think is town. TIK struck me as noobtown and so did UltrasPlot, sure both dropped scumtells and made horrible reads but there didn't seem to be any calculated or malicious intent behind it, they were just flailing as far as I could tell. I seriously doubt that either one would have acted as they did if they were mafia and thus felt pressure to be less confrontational (particularly UltrasPlot; I just don't see a world where any possible partner of his requests that he go hard after me during the early parts of this day). PS jesus christ UltrasPlot going after me was earlier THIS DAY fuck this game. I don't really want to see rssp1 lynched though if he absolutely refuses to post anything useful in the next day or so then I'll re-evaluate. I think there are at least 3-4 better lynches though, and at least 4-5 players with a higher chance of being mafia (note that the two are NOT synonymous at this point, as I've explained in various ways throughout previous posts and this one).

sunny004/PokeguyNXB...christ. Pokeguy flailed, sunny has done nothing, sunny's play strikes me as slightly scummy for him but Pokeguy's I was leaning towards him being villager. One of the reasons I'm mostly against lynching rssp1 right now is that I think there's no scenario in which lynching rssp1 is better than lynching sunny004 if we aim to go the 'lynch a useless player rather than the highest chance of mafia' route.

And, finally, it should be obvious that I think acidphoenix is most likely scum from the team that UTO isn't. Additionally he is being really useless, and so I'm waffling between who is the stronger lynch candidate. For now I'm keeping my vote on UTO just because it seems more likely to produce content and a well thought-out lynch vote than a lynch on him.

tl;dr:
Lynch candidates: U-Turn Out/acidphoenix>DLE/Celever (open to these two but definitely less keen)>sunny004 (would need to see an argument with something I'm missing currently or him falling off the face of the earth even more than he has)>rssp1/jumpluff/Yeti. I'm pretty open to anyone who isn't in the last group and could see maybe lynching rssp1 if someone convinces me that I'm purposefully blinding myself in an effort not to be biased against someone who scumread me for no reason for so long.

Most likely mafia: U-Turn Out>acidphoenix/DLE/Celever>sunny004/jumpluff>rssp1/Yeti. Note that this list is somewhat different and assumes that jumpluff/Yeti isn't a mafia team when it definitely could be, and would alter game dynamics quite a bit. If one of U-Turn Out or acidphoenix flips village then I think it is very likely that jumpluff becomes mafia in that scenario (particularly if acidphoenix is village).

jumpluff posted mid-way through this post asking for thoughts on a Celever lynch. My thoughts on this should be somewhat obvious from this post, but I think that Celever is definitely an acceptable lynch but I'd need to see an argument for it being stronger than an acidphoenix/UTO lynch, because I don't see one right now. Celever I definitely think has a better chance of being village than either of those two (particularly UTO) and I think has a chance of accurately discerning who is mafia tomorrow based on this lynch flip and the nightkills in the event he is village. I'm interested why you'd like a Celever lynch though, jumpluff. Was it just to test the waters as to what I felt or are you reading him as harder scum than I am (or have you been and I've been too lazy to notice)?

 

[realiti]

town: yeti jumpluff unclesam
slight town: rssp1
slight scum: sunny004
moderate scum: celever
confident scum: DLE acidphoenix
I'm writing this on a kindle so I won't be able to write detailed posts

 

[UncleSam]

That's basically just my list except obviously without yourself in the scum category; given that there are four scum the fact that you read four other people as town/slight town really is sketchy.

My vote stands. I'll re-assess acidphoenix in the morning.

 

[jumpluff]

UncleSam good post ty

I am 100% willing to vote for U-Turn Out, Da Letter El, Celever, or acidphoenix. I see my vote as currently wasted on DLE, because I do not think UTO is DLE's partner and neither sunny nor rssp1 have shown inclination to lynch him. I am also in the second guess phase where I am thinking of viable scenarios wherein DLE could be town (which is very much complicated by acidphoenix flipping or not flipping). In which case I'd rather have DLE than acidphoenix. In the quite realistic case that DLE is mafia, I believe U-Turn Out must be the opposite mafia, so the lynch is fine either way.

acidphoenix is AFK and a wildcard. I am hesitant to vote acidphoenix if only because that scum scenario (DLE/acidphoenix vs. U-Turn Out/Celever, as I've suggested before) is too perfect to me but as you pointed out and I agree with, we will have to get him out of our hair eventually, and in a situation where the outcome of the vote is less important than that it happens (ironically, agreeable to both scum and town alike, but I believe that you and I are both playing with a coin weighted slightly in our favour, Sam), acidphoenix is a decent lynch, and ensures we will hit majority. PS sunny004/PGNXB can replace any of those players except UTO and the scenario will make sense.

Anyway, the reason I asked about Celever, I already knew we can hit majority on acidphoenix very easily because literally everyone is happy to kill him except maybe rssp1, and I think the second best chance we have of hitting majority is Celever (and I feel more comfortable with that vote from the standpoint Celever has done nothing to convince me he is town despite me practically begging him to). We are not really in a position where we can wait for people to vote then shuffle them around until we like what we can see (thanks to all the people who refused to state who they wanted to lynch); we can interpret the absences of vote as well as we can the placement of vote, so sunny004 and rssp1 better have good explanations for why they didn't vote anyone else if they jump on an acidphoenix bandwagon, etc. I just feel really queasy about this because of sunny and rssp1 working with their powers combined to be so spectacularly unhelpful with regard to the idea of a UTO lynch and I don't know if we can rely on them to vote for Celever. sunny004 rssp1 So, I ask you both to place votes on one of acidphoenix/U-Turn Out, as those are the only viable majorities for today, keeping in mind that town must hit majority today, and I will vote accordingly. Keep watching the lynch, and also post your thoughts on Celever pls ty.

Conclusion: I agree the acidphoenix lynch is the strongest play at this point if sunny and rssp1 will not lynch U-Turn Out.

Back to Sam:

As for Celever, Celever's behaviour has been exactly identical with his previous pattern of play since you stopped paying attention. About all he did was bicker with U-Turn Out then drop it and abruptly lynch rssp1 with no real reasoning, as well as ignore my incessant posts asking him to explain his behaviour (especially the rssp1 vote), which is why I began to consider him scummy. Before that, I could not get a clean read. So there is no real argument to make that I will not make in the reads post.

I am already working on my reads post now. Anyone who is town should absolutely do this, both so we have information tomorrow that could be used in their defence (and the attack of other mafia) and in the event of their death and flip as town.

P.S. I disagree with your assessment of acidphoenix's flip either way implicating me in any scenario more than it does Yeti or you, especially since I subbed in after Day 1, but I agree with the logic that from your PoV I am likelier mafia than Yeti so I'm not going to quibble about it and it's not really important to me unless we somehow both survive until tomorrow. Your logic that no matter what UTO flips I'm mafia (if UTO flips mafia I'm a partner candidate, if UTO flips village I'm numerically mafia) is more questionable. Just putting that characterisation on the record.

 

[realiti]

I can't really see a likely scenario where DLE and acid aren't scum; sunny because lack of contibution,, celever because recent response to my posts and not really trying to scumhunt. Those four are pretty much viewed as scummy/suspicious by everybody; it's easy to tell so I can't really see how my similar list to yours will be considered scummy and not other peoples. I'll try to start working on a reads post, but it's going to to take a while

 

[UncleSam]

I thought I said that acidphoenix would only implicate you as mafia if he flipped village, which is obvious I think jumpluff.

As for UTO it's more a question of 'if he is mafia, look at jumpluff as a possible partner; if he is village, entertain the notion of Yeti/jumpluff'. In other words, out of what I consider to be by far the two likeliest scenarios as to you being mafia (partners with Yeti or partners with UTO) one goes up and ones goes down in probability with either UTO flip; in that sense, it becomes a question of, based on the OTHER flips, would the possible jumpluff scumteam that remains (based on the UTO flip in this case) be viable or not? For example, if UTO flips mafia A, and then me+Yeti die and Yeti flips mafia B, then ya you're more likely to be mafia B (almost guaranteed in fact). If, however, in the same scenario (UTO flips mafia A) Celever and Yeti die with Celever flipping mafia A and Yeti flipping village, then you're almost guaranteed to be village (and obviously a host of other possibilities exist as well, which is another reason I'd like to keep DLE/Celever around regardless of what they are because it will take a decent amount of thought to figure out what you are based on the flips). I think that the acidphoenix flip is probably the strongest indicator as to what you are, because I think it is less likely you are his partner and if he is mafia then it's much more likely you are village.

Of course, there are more variables at play here than just figuring out what jumpluff is, and I'm still thinking through whether keeping almost-guaranteed mafia UTO around is really better than keeping 50-50 acidphoenix around (because the more I convince myself he is worthless the more I realize that I'm also arguing that reading him accurately is more or less a coinflip).

You mentioned you were hesitant to vote acidphoenix for similar reasons jumpluff; what about UTO? Do you agree that he is almost certainly scum? If he is certainly scum and acidphoenix is 50-50, is the acidphoenix lynch still a better maximizer of village winning chances, and if not what do the odds have to be on each for you to merit one lynch over the other?

 

[jumpluff]

I thought I said that acidphoenix would only implicate you as mafia if he flipped village, which is obvious I think jumpluff.

As for UTO it's more a question of 'if he is mafia, look at jumpluff as a possible partner; if he is village, entertain the notion of Yeti/jumpluff'. In other words, out of what I consider to be by far the two likeliest scenarios as to you being mafia (partners with Yeti or partners with UTO) one goes up and ones goes down in probability with either UTO flip; in that sense, it becomes a question of, based on the OTHER flips, would the possible jumpluff scumteam that remains (based on the UTO flip in this case) be viable or not? For example, if UTO flips mafia A, and then me+Yeti die and Yeti flips mafia B, then ya you're more likely to be mafia B (almost guaranteed in fact). If, however, in the same scenario (UTO flips mafia A) Celever and Yeti die with Celever flipping mafia A and Yeti flipping village, then you're almost guaranteed to be village (and obviously a host of other possibilities exist as well, which is another reason I'd like to keep DLE/Celever around regardless of what they are because it will take a decent amount of thought to figure out what you are based on the flips). I think that the acidphoenix flip is probably the strongest indicator as to what you are, because I think it is less likely you are his partner and if he is mafia then it's much more likely you are village.

Of course, there are more variables at play here than just figuring out what jumpluff is, and I'm still thinking through whether keeping almost-guaranteed mafia UTO around is really better than keeping 50-50 acidphoenix around (because the more I convince myself he is worthless the more I realize that I'm also arguing that reading him accurately is more or less a coinflip).

You mentioned you were hesitant to vote acidphoenix for similar reasons jumpluff; what about UTO? Do you agree that he is almost certainly scum? If he is certainly scum and acidphoenix is 50-50, is the acidphoenix lynch still a better maximizer of village winning chances, and if not what do the odds have to be on each for you to merit one lynch over the other?

I swear to god if my reads post draft gets fucked because I replied to this (obv I put it in another document).

1. on acidphoenix, particularly the flipping: I don't actually think it's obvious, I'm genuinely not sure where you're coming from, so I assumed it was either numerical or because I asked you about the Celever lynch and not the acidphoenix lynch (which, as I remarked, was because the acidphoenix logic had already occurred to me in part and I didn't need anyone's input, I already had it in full), and general preference of other lynch targets over acidphoenix, which in this particular user's case is a bit like saying I hate waffles just because my favourite breakfast food is pancakes. Anyway I'm gonna be real and say straight up: I don't remember if I had implicitly assumed anything from your post about whether acidphoenix flips scum specificall yimplicating me because I've been busy pondering sunny004 and rssp1. However, I know how I think and speak, and looking back at my post I'm pretty sure I didn't and was just literally objecting to the idea of acidphoenix's flip affecting me in any way (waffles, pancakes), hence the use of 'any'. This is because I don't see any reasoning for why acidphoenix and I are related that doesn't also apply to you (preference of lynching other people as pseudoprotection, which as I've said before I 100% think is operative in this lynch for the scum btw, or willingness to lynch him while he's inactive, both apply to us) or Yeti (occasionally shielding him from you). Yeti/you are my strongest town reads so you also make exceptionally useful examples fmpov.

I said I wasn't gonna quibble b/c I didn't really need you to explain it to me since I see zero reason to defend myself from it, primarily because I think acidphoenix is mafia and secondarily because it's irrelevant (i.e. it detracts from the actual important discussion, and I think my towniness is independent of acidphoenix's total utter ambiguity) unless we both live into Day Three. I have made probably the strongest consistent case for acidphoenix being mafia, but to be fair, you cannot blame me for that specifically without blaming me for my global aggression in reads. If I'm the only person who can be bothered analysing acidphoenix's inactivity and explaining all the possible scenarios, that is the intellectual laziness (and having a life) of everyone else in this game and not scumminess of mine.

But, then, like, you posted about it again, and claimed it is the strongest indicator of my play, so w/e. In that sense you are doing that exact shitty thing DLE was doing about UTO and I took objection to at the time, which is forcing me into a point where I am held accountable for the uninformative play of another user simply because you cannot figure out any other way I could be anything but town, while other users could be accused of similar things from my PoV. From DLE I interpreted that as hella scummy because it seemed to be a way of setting up a chain lynch on UTO and me (UTO flips mafia, DLE has the mafia majority and is seen as town, DLE can then mislynch me safely).

Yes, I think acidphoenix is scum, so I am not particularly alarmed about it. But I think there is a nontrivial chance he is just a really terrible and lazy town player and The Diabolic Gift should be blacklisted from hosting (in which case my suspicion shifts to sunny/rssp1 probably since they are my filler town members). That's why I kept asking whether acidphoenix should be subbed or not, a lot of my read on acidphoenix was predicated on the fact acidphoenix was never subbed despite remarkable inactivity, but it was obscured by The Diabolic Gift showing similar levels of attention to the thread.

And I'll be upfront again: it does actually kind of fill me with outrage to talk about that, because you know exactly how I feel about inactive players when I'm trying hard to win a game and my neurosis about even the idea of being dragged down by them, and it is you who is happiest with the idea of 'mis'lynching acidphoenix. But I am not threatened by the Yeti/me dynamic whereas it would be very terrible for you if we were both mafia and it would be terrible for you AND her if I were mafia, so no hard feelings, I have to consider whether you are scum instead of DLE in every post I make while Occam's razoring you to even navigate this game @_@ But you do acknowledge that acidphoenix is a little bit of a coinflip (to me, a weighted coinflip, so I'm okay with throwing it instead of a no lynch), so then I don't know how you can say that that doesn't obfuscate the clarity of any read from the flip (especially on me, and you know my play has been very consistent, that is why you resort to vaguely articulated partnertells to navigate the scenario where I am not mafia).

FMPOV, the most informative flips on me would probably be Da Letter El flipping mafia (basically confirmed town at that point), you flipping mafia, Celever flipping mafia, Yeti flipping town. From the possibility I am mafia, the most 'telling' flips on me would be UTO flipping scum, Yeti flipping mafia (this would be an absolute guarantee I was mafia), and DLE flipping town IN CONJUNCTION with someone like Celever or UTO flipping town. I just cannot see where you're getting acidphoenix from, I guess because you consider the majority of these scenarios which would suggest I am mafia to be unrealistic to either be true or to be known to the town?

2. on U-Turn Out flipping: fair logic and I think I already said I agree it's reasonable from your PoV, appreciate the clarity.

3. on U-Turn Out vs. acidphoenix as a lynch: Yep, I think U-Turn Out is almost certainly scum. The only thing I can really say in their defence is that they make a repeated effort to contribute, but they are evasive and their defense posts do not come across as fully sincere (already wrote a full attack post before). UTO has also been under pressure constantly, so I think it is more likely that they are just more sophisticated than acidphoenix or whomever. Basically any reason I was willing to give UTO leniency has receded because they are essentially flavour reasons, I like the way UTO plays and presents themselves more than I like the way rssp1 or sunny (likelier to be town) play and present themselves, but unfortunately we must play the hand we are dealt. Numerically UTO is one of my strongest scum, if that was not scum Walrein then I have literally nothing to say to Walrein ever again (jk but lol), Hannahh had a clear motive that other players pointed out for dodging people and then subbing. And so UTO entered the game essentially on the defensive.

I am not sure if we can hit majority on U-Turn Out and 100% sure we can hit majority on acidphoenix. Since from my PoV acidphoenix is more probable to be scum, I don't see it as a 50-50, so I see that as a very safe but uninformative move. I also like having UTO around more because they actually invest effort into the game and post honestly, even when that shit blatantly implicates them (as I pointed out before), whereas acidphoenix is never gonna be killed by the mafia. So the more I think about that, the more I think acidphoenix is an optimal kill for us.

But let's ignore the probability issues of hitting majority and assume majority on UTO is possible. In that case, we'd have me, you, and Da Letter El voting. Ignoring Yeti, we have two votes from, in descending order of likelihood:

- Celever switches from his terrible vote onto rssp1 onto a UTO wagon
- sunny004 shitposts again and wagons
- rssp1 listens to me and votes UTO because they have a nullread on both UTO and DLE (think they're likelier to vote acidphoenix tbh, except that they suspect both you and me for Too Much Towniness, which does indeed put them in an interesting quandary)
- acidphoenix is raised from the dead, the game never ends because we are saved from it by the Rapture
- U-Turn Out commits seppuku

Win chances? Well, I had to rethink this actually to coherently answer you, but I think we should probably try to go for the surer scum (UTO) if we can, lol. Numbers are likely to be 4/1/1 tomorrow. If we're really, really lucky (don't count on it), we get 5/1/1. Then we win as long as you are not scum and the town has multiple neurons. I am actually very confident about the night playing out in our favour (quite probable, so probable it scares me, knock on wood etc.). Why? 1. Doctor 2. 'The nightkill of the Fire Mafia and the Ice Mafia will fail if both groups of mafia target the same person.' 3. Mafia need to hit each other. The fewer village, the better chance the doctor has of blocking any kills on town. This isn't an argument to kill village, and I really really don't wanna ramble about the doctor's optimal move for tonight, but it's just obvious because the fewer players there are, the likelier they are to be targeted. This also generalises to point 2. If Fire and Ice Mafia both attempt to kill village (suboptimal move but possible, if we lynch scum then will the stronger team target the village? idk depends on the players, I wouldn't personally but it's a real possibility), crossfire chance increases unless they go for kills I am quite personally happy for them to make, WHICH VERY MUCH risks that they accidentally crossfire on THEMSELVES. 3. Speaks for itself. The mafia have to play all around this, which puts them in a hilarious WIFOM scenario.

Now unfortunately we cannot rely on the town to save itself even if they are handed the 5/1/1 scenario, we have too many idlers. So there is the non-quantitative problem of them lynching suboptimally. I think it's safe to assume that if two of the competent town players die tonight somehow, acidphoenix gets lynched tomorrow by consensus anyway.

So, to answer your question, if acidphoenix truly is a 50-50, lynching UTO maximises our chances of winning.

So now I would like to state that my vote is going to be on UTO unless anyone presents a better case, but I trust myself enough in this case to let the day play out and so not putting him at L-2, I will let someone else do that which will be tons more useful anyways.

 

[jumpluff]

Sorry, that was a logic rollercoaster, it's because I had to go through thinking about what would happen tomorrow to conclude acidphoenix was only deceptively an optimal kill.

 

[jumpluff]

Also I am really tired now, I am not going to post what I have of my reads post because it isn't anything I haven't posted before until I finish my paragraphs about rssp1 (just a reiteration that I think Yeti/me/US are town, sunny004 is a weakening ambivalent town read, rssp1 is a strengthening ambivalent town read, acidphoenix is a slightly diminished scumread from before due to actual inactivity, Celever is scummy as fuck, DLE is scum for the same old reasons but may end up numerically town if I am very wrong about our idletowns and UncleSam, UTO is scum as much as I wish we could swap for him), and I have to finish another assignment.

 

[UncleSam]

Err, I said that it was obvious because you already mentioned it being obvious: if acidphoenix is town then one of you/rssp1/sunny004 (because I don't think a Yeti mafia/jumpluff village scenario is worth considering), which makes it less likely you are village. If he is mafia, then it makes it more likely you are village because I'm near certain UTO isn't on acidphoenix' team and so there would be little room for a Yeti/jumpluff team, so the only possibility remaining would be that you are UTO's partner. You already had said all of this previously and it's more or less purely a numbers thing, I felt obligated to say more or less that you had already gotten it and so posted one sentence about it just to indicate that I wasn't ignoring your previous post. I'm not sure where you got the idea that 'acidphoenix mafia = jumpluff mafia' and you appear to think I implied??? I said that him being town makes it more likely you are mafia and vice-versa due to the obvious numbers points which you had already acknowledged.

Personally, after sleeping on it, I think I prefer the UTO lynch over the acidphoenix lynch. Out-thinking ourselves onto acidphoenix instead of taking what is more or less a guaranteed lynch I feel would be a really silly way to lose a game; while the mafia may or may not equalize this lynch result in the nightkills either way, the fact that the two mafias hitting the same villager means they both fail means that I think hitting most probable mafia here is the optimal strategy unless the second-most-likely is nearly the same in probability.

Celever vote for UTO or acidphoenix unless you want to provide a strong post as to why you feel strongly in either the rssp1 lynch or a different, alternative lynch target. Your vote is incredibly important here. The same to rssp1 and sunny004.

 

[sunny004]

I'm leaning a bit more towards an acidpheonix lynch to be honest... At least UTO has made some effort to contribute.

(I'm making a reads post right after this so stop freaking out; I'll post whatever I have when I need to leave)

It is important to note, however that the host doesn't frequent this forum often (forgive me if I'm wrong), so he/she most likely won't have any planned scumteams. I would advise against lynching someone solely based off of another's flip (However if there is other evidence that's a different story)

So yea

 

[sunny004]

If you want me to vote also please say so

 

[UncleSam]

The scumteam evidence cited is not based on the host but on player interaction.

 

[UncleSam]

And yes I'd like you to vote

 

[The Diabolic Gift]

sub for acidpheonix?

 

[sunny004]

Yes, hasn't been on since wednesday.

 

[sunny004]

Actually now that I've seen that acid STILL hasn't been on I'm leaning more towards UTO as the other major lynch candidate. I'm wondering why people are suspecting him. These posts are too big :/ and I feel like I've missed some important details.

 

[sunny004]

Lynch U-Turn Out

Tag me if you want me to retract if we're getting close 2 majority

 

[sunny004]

Quad post ftw

I dont want to edit above post but I forgot to say that that vote was mostly for pressure and I can remove it at any time. So dont yell at me for band wagon

 

[UncleSam]

Do you think UTO is the most likely person to be mafia? I want you to vote but not for 'pressure' and frankly that post reads a hell of a lot like 'people told me I have to vote but pls don't blame me for anything that goes wrong'.

I want you to vote the person you feel has the highest chance of being mafia, independent of what anyone else thinks. I also want you to be available before deadline tomorrow to change that vote in case the person you voted for isn't getting majority.

 

[Celever]

Celever is only making himself look scummier. First 'I don't analyse posts but general patterns' but has nothing to say about U-Turn Out despite me laying out the exact patterns but then gets into another pedantry war with UTO in the exact manner he did with Gale Wing Srock. The sudden lynch on rssp1 after that fight with UTO is unsubstantiated on Celever's part (it is just a jump on sunny's post) and strikes me as absurd. Celever has done nothing but completely crawl up to sunny since sunny subbed in for PokeguyNXB in what I see as a transparent attempt to avoid having to engage seriously with Yeti and me.

I wouldn't call my argument with UTO the exact same as my argument with Gale. I called UTO out on his post, whereas with Gale I was trying to get him to be a little bit more useful much like other players like US etc. were doing as well.

I'll state it bluntly and antagonistically since I'm sleep deprived again: Celever, why do you only choose to engage in extended discourse with players that are parallel to or beneath your experience level? Why do you shy away evasively from conversations with me?

Umm... I don't know? I didn't realise I was doing that TBH, but looking back I can see how I might've been. It was purely subconscious, I promise. I tend to shy away from conflict unless I feel I'm in control >~>

Explain to me why you chose rssp1 and not U-Turn Out or even Da Letter El or acidphoenix.

Because rssp1 is above and beyond the scummiest player in the game. I could see UTO, acid or even DLE being town, but I think that rssp1 is under no circumstances.

Explain to me why you chose to side with sunny's accusation of rssp1 and not Yeti's.

I don't know really, once again. My memory of this game isn't particularly great. I'm assuming sunny's was just at a more ample time for me to publicly agree with, whereas with Yeti I was sort of trying to pressure other players, though my vote was on UltrasPlot at the time anyway IIRC.

How do you feel about rssp1 arguing you are townie?

Probably trying to make me look scummier in case he's lynched.

I'm thinking that I've finally figured out scum teams:
rssp1/acidphoenix
DLE/UTO

As such, I'm happy to vote any of the 4 today. Thinking about it, my preference would be acid because he is the lowest risk option; if he does somehow turn out to be town, he's not doing much for us and we could quite easily lose from his inactivity if he is town. As such, he's definitely lowest risk, but maybe not highest reward. Highest reward would be DLE because he's best at defending himself, so if he is mafia it's better to get rid of those doubts now. However, he's quite risky because while he's in most people's top 4 likeliest scum, he's number 3 or 4 for I think everyone. rssp1 I would like to lynch today because no one's listening to me saying how scummy he is (and I wouldn't be surprised if he nightkills me to get me to shut up, though at the same time that might throw away his chances of winning since I'm seen as rather scummy by most). A rssp1 lynch just isn't likely to happen, though. UTO is in the middle somewhere, middling risk, middling reward. I'm going to go ahead and...
Unvote
Lynch acidphoenix

 

[rssp1]

well as I said before if we're getting a sub for acid I don't want to lynch him just yet, and I don't really see any reason to lynch UTO at the moment, so I guess i'll go back and reread the arguments to see if I agree or not.
Also I feel like nobody's actually responding to anything I say, not sure if its because they aren't in wallposts or because what i say just has shitty logic, but it'd be nice to hear some feedback