I'm not sure I agree Yeti was acidphoenix's kill, if only because there was no way Yeti could be scum with Celever (because I exist), the kill was terrible either way because if he wanted a Celever lynch today to eliminate Fire Mafia he should've gone for the safer kill, but literally all we want is confirmation of who the Ice Mafia is so that the Ice Mafia and we do not autolose today. (Ice Mafia cooperation is also a bartering chip in kingmaker, fwiw...) Yeti made a very very very plausible kill for rssp1 and Celever.
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NOC Fire and Ice Mafia: Fire and Ice tie, the village loses.
- Thread starter The Diabolic Gift
- Start date
- Status
I'm still debating over lynching Celever or rssp1. Celever is the safest option, but at the same time he is an easy target for acid, which could come in handy in a 1-1-1 kingmaker, if I understand priorities correctly...I'm still curious about Celever's partner, I guess I'll wait for jumpluff's response before I go more indepth with it. Celever is probably a slightly better target, but I see no need to rush majority
LightWolf it would be great if you could confirm priorities with us so we can understand kingmakers in better detail
LightWolf it would be great if you could confirm priorities with us so we can understand kingmakers in better detail
The nightkill of the Fire Mafia and the Ice Mafia will fail if both groups of mafia target the same person.
The mafia groups are not immune to night kill.
The mafia groups are not immune to night kill.
Jumpluff thinks i'm partners with you because of my obsession to declare you as a townread with little more than just a gut feeling, while you are tunneling extremely on me. S/he probably believes i'm buddying you and you're trying to get me lynched so you can distance yourself.
Or something along those lines, idk.
Or something along those lines, idk.
Perhaps part of the reason I think you're town is that a) i know i'm town, b) you're not a bad player, and c) only a bad mafia would relentlessly tunnel a townie; it's far too risky a play and something that would make people want to lynch you (as they have mostly, you've just been a secondary target in comparison to others). On the flip side, a townie would be willing to relentlessly pursue someone who they see as scum because, well, they have nothing to lose. If they bring up valid points and they get lynched, those points will be looked at after the flip, and if the person is lynched and they flip scum, that's obviously good for the town.
One possible counterargument is "oh look the fire mafia haven't quickhammered the rssp1 lynch that means at least one of the two is mafia" but a quickhammer in forum mafia is incredibly hard to actually coordinate, since both players of the scumteam that need to quickhammer would have to be on, and anyone else casting a lynch and then waiting for their partner to cast one would immediately be seen as scummy.
"you" refers to Celever in case anyone was wondering.
One possible counterargument is "oh look the fire mafia haven't quickhammered the rssp1 lynch that means at least one of the two is mafia" but a quickhammer in forum mafia is incredibly hard to actually coordinate, since both players of the scumteam that need to quickhammer would have to be on, and anyone else casting a lynch and then waiting for their partner to cast one would immediately be seen as scummy.
"you" refers to Celever in case anyone was wondering.
Wayan Vistar
formerly Flyhn
Okay i'm back, and it's fairly obvious that yes, Fire Mafia should be our target today. Usually in a situation like this i would ask doc to out (village is only 50% of the players left anyway), but quite honestly looking at how the game could play out after a Fire Mafia lynch, we need the doc alive (that 3-1 looks promising and is the scenario we're most likely to win in)
So i guess i should out who i think the Fire Mafia is, simply by process of elimination.
I'm town
acid has outed as last Ice
jumpluff is the towniest player alive
Okay that leaves UTO, Celever, and rssp. (unless we're all wrong and jumpluff is mafia, but that's probably just me being paranoid like i was with US)... Honestly i'm extremely unsure of which 2 of these 3 are actually scum. Seeing as there's most likely a 2/3 chance of lynching one between these three, i'm going to Lynch Celever right now because he only has 1 person townreading him, and said person is his most likely partner, but do keep in mind this is subject to change if anything else comes up... and i believe hammer is 4 votes currently? So nobody else vote this yet please as it's at L-3 already and if I'm wrong (even if that is likely a 1/3 chance) Fire Mafia can easily blitz.
So i guess i should out who i think the Fire Mafia is, simply by process of elimination.
I'm town
acid has outed as last Ice
jumpluff is the towniest player alive
Okay that leaves UTO, Celever, and rssp. (unless we're all wrong and jumpluff is mafia, but that's probably just me being paranoid like i was with US)... Honestly i'm extremely unsure of which 2 of these 3 are actually scum. Seeing as there's most likely a 2/3 chance of lynching one between these three, i'm going to Lynch Celever right now because he only has 1 person townreading him, and said person is his most likely partner, but do keep in mind this is subject to change if anything else comes up... and i believe hammer is 4 votes currently? So nobody else vote this yet please as it's at L-3 already and if I'm wrong (even if that is likely a 1/3 chance) Fire Mafia can easily blitz.
Whichever non-Ice side doesn't get lynched today will be targeted by me. If you hit Town, Doc should be on me, if you hit Fire Mafia, Doc should be on a random player you think is town.
With that pleasant note, and because I don't think a lynch or lack thereof of any particular faction will very much harm any faction's particular chances,
Lynch Celever
With that pleasant note, and because I don't think a lynch or lack thereof of any particular faction will very much harm any faction's particular chances,
Lynch Celever
>Claims mafia
>Wants doc protection
Yeahhhhhh no.
I wish I was doc but sadly I'm just a vanillager. I was considering claiming doc because lynching town right about now literally makes us autolose but I thought it might cause the real doc to cc which would... uh... not be good. So I'm just going to claim my real role and have the other townies not believe it and lose because of it ;;.
Well I say that, Pokeguy just shot up my scumreads list. I've been reading him town all game, but I don't understand why the fire mafia haven't lynched me yet. I guess UTO wasn't on? The scumteam is probably UTO and rssp1 at this point, I sorta doubt Pokeguy is on it though recent happenings make it totally possible and jumpluff almost certainly isn't mafia. Seriously though PokeguyNXB, if you are town this is really bad play because mafia could hammer it any minute and secure the win.
Stop voting ffs if we don't lynch fire mafia we all lose. acidphoenix
explain why we shouldn't lynch you for that. Seems like only Fire Mafia have anything to gain from that vote PokeguyNXB
going back to bed for awhile nobody vote except to retract your votes
explain why we shouldn't lynch you for that. Seems like only Fire Mafia have anything to gain from that vote PokeguyNXB
going back to bed for awhile nobody vote except to retract your votes
Ok I've been thinking it over (sorry I'm not doing too well atm) and doctor needs to claim so we don't lose. I'm also pretty sure I know who this is, but we need it confirmed. We can't lynch before everyone's seen the doctor claim. At this point we can only assume that acidphoenix is indeed the Ice Mafia because the Fire Mafia have every incentive to falsely claim that one of them is Ice Mafia and none of them have counterclaimed that they are the Ice Mafia (plus it was pretty likely in the first place). Do not post who you protected at any stage previously. Do not reveal anything about how your role works.
also acidphoenix doctor isn't going to protect you if you don't aim at the Fire Mafia. There is literally no incentive for this, and you have the exact same need to lynch Fire Mafia today as we do because they auto-win. So I would reconsider that plan and reproposition the doctor if I were you. Here, I'll do it for you.
So: If the Fire Mafia is not eliminated tomorrow night then I urge the village to give the win to them by lynching acidphoenix the day after to punish him for non-cooperation, and for superior play in general. In return, the doctor's protection for acidphoenix tomorrow night, so we get the kill on FM. Ice Mafia still has two scenarios in which they can win, we have a scenario in which we are guaranteed to win, and there are two kingmaker scenarios in which we can hold acidphoenix to this agreement if he consents. (Ofc I am factoring in that Fire Mafia aims at us in this scenario or gambles that we are not protecting acidphoenix.)
also acidphoenix doctor isn't going to protect you if you don't aim at the Fire Mafia. There is literally no incentive for this, and you have the exact same need to lynch Fire Mafia today as we do because they auto-win. So I would reconsider that plan and reproposition the doctor if I were you. Here, I'll do it for you.
So: If the Fire Mafia is not eliminated tomorrow night then I urge the village to give the win to them by lynching acidphoenix the day after to punish him for non-cooperation, and for superior play in general. In return, the doctor's protection for acidphoenix tomorrow night, so we get the kill on FM. Ice Mafia still has two scenarios in which they can win, we have a scenario in which we are guaranteed to win, and there are two kingmaker scenarios in which we can hold acidphoenix to this agreement if he consents. (Ofc I am factoring in that Fire Mafia aims at us in this scenario or gambles that we are not protecting acidphoenix.)
btw i mean that literally, fire mafia wins if we don't lynch them today because if we lynch ice mafia the fire mafia can't lose because they hold 50% majority and thus autowin, if we lynch ourselves either we win (in which case we have won already regardless due to game mechanics assuming anything remotely resembling rational play) or far more likely the fire mafia wins because they hold 50% (there is no scenario in which ice mafia wins if the village lynches itself today)
Hey, so can I!
It's in the sign up thread -_-The Diabolic Gift said:
I'm not sure how much I believe it. I think that the real doc should cc.
Nope, if there are any mechanics to the doctor that aren't in the signups thread the doctor needs to keep it to themselves.
Anyone going to dispute this claim?
Wayan Vistar
formerly Flyhn
Unvote
acid wtf? I said nobody else vote yet...
acid wtf? I said nobody else vote yet...
Wayan Vistar
formerly Flyhn
Also i don't dispute the doc claim.
TYVM Pokeguy, you the boss.
Now I'd like to ask U-Turn Out a question before I unleash my next thesis, which has been sitting around for awhile and so thankfully is not a quadruple post:
Also if you don't mind PokeguyNXB, who do you think the town members are other than me? I don't need a 100% confident read, just some sort of statement would be helpful.
Now I'd like to ask U-Turn Out a question before I unleash my next thesis, which has been sitting around for awhile and so thankfully is not a quadruple post:
Why ? Obviously you have that acidphoenix is the Ice Mafia and that I'm town, but what made you think rssp1 was town at the time that changed overnight? You suddenly began to pursue the 'rssp1 and Celever are the Fire Mafia' hypothesis quite aggressively after I put it out there for consideration. Would be helpful to know how everyone feels after that lynch about who the Fire Mafia are and if/how/why it's changed.
Also if you don't mind PokeguyNXB, who do you think the town members are other than me? I don't need a 100% confident read, just some sort of statement would be helpful.
sorry I didn't really read it indepth before posting. Mostly I feel that when Celever's post said "real doctor cc", it was implying that he wanted his partner, who was rssp1 to cc even though he knew he wasn't doctor; I think he knew that if we got organized we would probably win the game. I doubt he would do this with pokeguy since pokeguy has been acting antidoctor (dont know how else to put it) and would not ask the same thing otherwise.
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