How much longer until the next big market bust?

[Chou Toshio]

So let me note that I'm a big free market guy-- I believe in economics, and that value is created when people make economic decisions.

Keep in mind that economic decisions are logical ones-- and economics assumes things like "perfect information" where all people participating in markets are able to make calculated decisions they benefit from.

That of course is a fantasy, but is about to get a lotta lotta lotta more retarded.

With Trump and a red congress, consumer protections, accounting practices, and many regulatory policies that benefit transparency and corporate responsibility are about to be dumped down the drain. Everything that supports the strength of having a free market is gonna go bye bye. Business is about to go black. Wallstreet hasn't learned or been reigned in at all, and subprime lending type practices were already regaining traction under Obama.

So, how long you guys give until the next big bust?

 

[Kink]

So let me note that I'm a big free market guy-- I believe in economics, and that value is created when people make economic decisions.

Keep in mind that economic decisions are logical ones-- and economics assumes things like "perfect information" where all people participating in markets are able to make calculated decisions they benefit from.

That of course is a fantasy, but is about to get a lotta lotta lotta more retarded.

With Trump and a red congress, consumer protections, accounting practices, and other accounting practices that benefit transparency and corporate responsibility is about to be dumped down the drain. Everything that supports the strength of having a free market is gonna go bye bye. Business is about to go black. Wallstreet hasn't learned or been reigned in at all, and subprime lending type practices were already regaining traction under Obama.

So, how long you guys give until the next big bust?

Considering that Trump will do everything in his power to support those that make the same money he does I have this to say from a marxist perspective: fuck.

 

[Cresselia~~]

I know nothing about economics because I didn't have the opportunity to study any. (along with history)
But I believe Trump will change something economically with his power.

I also think Trump may try to burst the economic bubble for China, and make China poor again.

 

[Deck Knight]

I don't understand Chou, I thought Obama and Team Blue were going to hold Wall Street accountable.
You mean that didn't happen?

If your problem is the two-party establishment, Trump broke BOTH of those on his way to becoming president.
He has a red congress, but he's spent quite a lot of time ensuring he's the one who sets the tone.
It's a gamble, I suppose, but Trump is an outlier to general Team Red / Team Blue politics.

Anyway, the fact that we're currently pumping 85 billion a month in fake money "quantitative easing" into the economy means that our economy will burst, and Trump will get the blame for it. I suspect however that he may just decide to let Americas get about adjusting to it, unlike FDR whose tinkering prolonged the Great Depression.

 

[Ash Borer]

Very soon, capitalism is at its end stage. As there are no untapped markets or labour forces left, and as jobs disappear to technology, population growth declines and GDP growth slow, there is little incentive to investors or traders, which is what keeps it all rolling. I mean really, it doesn't really make sense that there is an infinite potential for economic growth. Full on communism is no answer, it is an inherently broken system, too oppressive, authoritarian, and unable to grapple with quantifying what a person is able to produce, and what they need (which is pretty much what free market is good for).

I think, in the near future there will be a serious problem for capitalism, in that corporations work their hardest to stop paying people, or pay them as little as possible. This is self ruining system as the people need capital to buy the corporation's products and services. This is a classic depression, but the coming storm is that a lot of the jobs will simply be lost to technology and are therefore never coming back. Again think of this catch 22, jobs can exist because anyone who runs a competitive business can use machine labour which is cheaper, but if they use machine labour then there are no jobs and no one to buy anything. The solution will be for governments to aggressively plug up tax loopholes, aggressively tax wealth out of corporations, and then distribute it to the masses as a universal basic income. This is an everyone wins situation, because those at the top can not survive without those at the bottom buying from them.

It may seem bizarre to entertain the idea that there will be people that are unemployable by no fault of their own and will receive a comfortable income from the government, and this benefits the economy, but it's a product of how insanely overproductive it has become.

There still needs to be a pseudo-free market at the very least, people still need to be able to make a profit, invest and create. It is exceptionally useful at creating new products, and bending to the collective will of the people. However, the days of everyone having a job that pays enough to keep these wheels turning are over, so the government needs to step in.

 

[Chou Toshio]

Deck Knight -- That did not happen lolz. Obama played major soft ball with Wallstreet, and any move he made to do regulation (or anything) was blocked the whole way. Even bringing back glass steagall would be insufficient in the ever increasing complexity of modern financial practices.

Trump has broken away from politics as usual, but he's campaigned hard under deregulation and tax cuts for businesses and the wealthy. Frankly I see him as a man with zero loyalty to the voters, and only loyalty to himself and his business. Policies that will do well by his business are the same kind of policies that will lead to financial bust.

Maybe politicians on all sides need to remember: Greenspan said he fucked up. He said he was wrong.

I'm actually not opposed to using some quantitative easing as a tool to add gas to the market-- but the bigger issue is that there is no incentive to be disciplined and do business operations delivering actual economic value.

The bigger problem is that Obama took no scalps. I mean, if the market sees Trump as an unpredictable "tough guy" who would take Wallstreet executives to jail, maybe that would be a good thing-- but I don't think that is the perception.

Swindling and lying are more lucrative business in the short run (and no one is incentivized to think about the long run) than highly analyzed and responsible lending, portfolio management, consulting, etc. Our financial services sector will just have a lot more incentive to fuck it up than actually try in the coming years-- and not just them, but pretty much all areas of business that will go with little oversight. Americans may see their consumables falling in quality and increasingly dangerous in the years to come.


Ash Borer-- while I agree with the coming social problems of technology replacing jobs, the market losing valuation of human labor, I disagree with your assessment that capitalism cannot produce more productivity and value. It definitely can, especially as technology advances. The problems I'' pointing to in the op are the fact that without regulation people will far more incentivized to lie, cheat, steal-- turn to black business instead of making products and services of actual value. That's the biggest potential for the market itself to collapse.

Getting the market to work for people, making mechanisms to see value made in the market translated into better livelihood of citizens is a different (albeit extremely pressing) issue.

The other problem is that as the country's wealth and productivity become less and less derived from labor, politicians also become less and less accountable to bettering the lives of citizens. One of the biggest ways democracy collapses.

Capitalism can fail without regulation.

Democracy can fail when citizen productivity becomes unessential to the country's wealth.

 

[Bughouse]

idk man but if you knew the answer to this question, you could make a lot of money

 

[Chou Toshio]

idk man but if you knew the answer to this question, you could make a lot of money

Start shorting the market 4-5 years from now lol

 

[destinyunknown]

I know nothing about economics because I didn't have the opportunity to study any. (along with history)
But I believe Trump will change something economically with his power.

I also think Trump may try to burst the economic bubble for China, and make China poor again.

China's economy is already at risk of falling into recession due to their huge debt, which could get out of control.