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Mafia 101 NOC: game over (mafia win)
- Thread starter Asek
- Start date
Yes because it led to a very unnatural wagon that's going on rn and i'd rather not go for unsafe lynches.
Letting someone that is the primary suspect for scum initially lead discussion is very detrimental and helps you hide yourself far more easily. I don't care about everyone contributing as long as we can narrow down who the primary scum suspects are.
I'm still pretty comfortable with my vote on Why don. Otherwise, I have concerns with hitmonleet, moody, and to a lesser extent Martin. I can provide more information for these tomorrow when I can get to a computer, but I can try to explain things 8d people want more info.
The base reasoning is in my previous posts though.
The base reasoning is in my previous posts though.
Limited activity today, will try to catch up around 4ish but won't be on for deadline
Asek
Banned deucer.
VOTE COUNT
Hitmonleet (2) - (moodycloud, Blank Slate2356)
Whydon (3) - (mithril, haruno, king_)
Moodycloud (3)- (martin_, Texas Cloverleaf, Hitmonleet)
Not voting: Biggie, Whydon, TraceOfLife, Shubaka, Former Hope,
Reminder that a tie results in both users being lynched
also reminder that I need a sub for this game.
Hitmonleet (2) - (moodycloud, Blank Slate2356)
Whydon (3) - (mithril, haruno, king_)
Moodycloud (3)- (martin_, Texas Cloverleaf, Hitmonleet)
Not voting: Biggie, Whydon, TraceOfLife, Shubaka, Former Hope,
Reminder that a tie results in both users being lynched
also reminder that I need a sub for this game.
Moodycloud - I think their overall argument is that for this NOC setup we need to lynch people for information. I have to agree with everyone elses that "opposes" this, as you don't need to lynch for information. also basically stating that "we're probably going to end up lynching a town anyway so we should just pray that we hit mafia and if we don't oh well" is, to say the least, uncomfortable thinking. lean scum
TraceofLife - getting subbed out so yeah nothing to say about them
Biggie - has only made two posts in the entire thread and their lack of contribution is unhelpful. i would say lean town since they simply weren't aware of RVS but their lack of posts makes it difficult to determine. null
Haruno - votes for me because they think I was trying to protect scumbuddy. that's fine thinking and all, but then they complain that hitmonleet is leading the discussion, and when I explain to them that i was not attempting to protect scumbuddy, they state that it lead to an "unnatural wagon". well, biggie no longer has any votes on them. don't know how I feel about them, would like to see more posts from them as well. slight lean to scum but will easily be changed if they post more
Texas Cloverleaf - strong lean for town because they have very town-oriented arguments and their contribution to the thread is helpful. hasn't really given anybody a reason to suspect them so lean town
King_ - hasn't posted since friday and their last post was "mithril whydon shubaka/martin mafia good game", and then proceeded to vote me with no other reason at all. okay...really don't have much of a clue since they haven't posted lately. null
Martin - not much to say for them, we essentially have the same reasons for voting moodycloud so I can't really say much. lean town for also trying to scumhunt
Former Hope - another person who hasn't posted much. thought I was trying to "lie" about biggie's vote and thought I was trying to flip the bandwagon on them, which, as I explained, was never my intention. don't know how they still feel about the situation since they haven't posted. once again, another null
Shubaka - hasn't posted anything to partains to the game at all (well, he technically did, but he hasn't posted about the current suspects/votes/anything else about the current gameplay). can't determine anything from that. null
Hitmonleet - okay I see why everyone was on him but for me I didn't see their first post as trying to out the cop but just trying to contribute. obviously I got a lot of backlash for this opinion but whatever that's fine. tbh even though their most recent posts are making them look better than they originally did it could just be them trying to clean their tracks, so idk. could go either way
Mithril - actively trying to scumhunt, which is good. has been responding to questions. voted for me because they thought I was trying to protect scumbuddy, and they're still content with their vote on me, which is meh, but I don't think they're going to change their mind on the matter. lean town
the last thing we need as a village is to lynch two people, because that's just increasing the risk of lynching cop. going to vote moodycloud to prevent this, and also because I suspect them as seen by my reasoning above.
TraceofLife - getting subbed out so yeah nothing to say about them
Biggie - has only made two posts in the entire thread and their lack of contribution is unhelpful. i would say lean town since they simply weren't aware of RVS but their lack of posts makes it difficult to determine. null
Haruno - votes for me because they think I was trying to protect scumbuddy. that's fine thinking and all, but then they complain that hitmonleet is leading the discussion, and when I explain to them that i was not attempting to protect scumbuddy, they state that it lead to an "unnatural wagon". well, biggie no longer has any votes on them. don't know how I feel about them, would like to see more posts from them as well. slight lean to scum but will easily be changed if they post more
Texas Cloverleaf - strong lean for town because they have very town-oriented arguments and their contribution to the thread is helpful. hasn't really given anybody a reason to suspect them so lean town
King_ - hasn't posted since friday and their last post was "mithril whydon shubaka/martin mafia good game", and then proceeded to vote me with no other reason at all. okay...really don't have much of a clue since they haven't posted lately. null
Martin - not much to say for them, we essentially have the same reasons for voting moodycloud so I can't really say much. lean town for also trying to scumhunt
Former Hope - another person who hasn't posted much. thought I was trying to "lie" about biggie's vote and thought I was trying to flip the bandwagon on them, which, as I explained, was never my intention. don't know how they still feel about the situation since they haven't posted. once again, another null
Shubaka - hasn't posted anything to partains to the game at all (well, he technically did, but he hasn't posted about the current suspects/votes/anything else about the current gameplay). can't determine anything from that. null
Hitmonleet - okay I see why everyone was on him but for me I didn't see their first post as trying to out the cop but just trying to contribute. obviously I got a lot of backlash for this opinion but whatever that's fine. tbh even though their most recent posts are making them look better than they originally did it could just be them trying to clean their tracks, so idk. could go either way
Mithril - actively trying to scumhunt, which is good. has been responding to questions. voted for me because they thought I was trying to protect scumbuddy, and they're still content with their vote on me, which is meh, but I don't think they're going to change their mind on the matter. lean town
the last thing we need as a village is to lynch two people, because that's just increasing the risk of lynching cop. going to vote moodycloud to prevent this, and also because I suspect them as seen by my reasoning above.
We're already risking screwing ourselves because we have no night actions besides cop so we need more information at a faster rate. Nights are trrrible for village so we need more lynches to compensate. And seeing as how cop cannot claim that isn't really a plus for village.
Again, there is no reason to risk that so early on in the game. We already have no information. In my opinion we should at least wait a night and see what happens. From there we can work out what we need to do. Honestly lynching two people on the first day, while it would provide us with information, is going to hurt us more in the long run than it will help us. If we lynch two village, we are left with 8 for the night. Another village dies during the night, and then it's 3 to 7. At that point we HAVE to lynch a mafia or else we lose. While we may have enough information at that point to correctly lynch, IMO it's an unnecessary risk for so early on in the game.
Sorry, I just read over that the second I posted it. Idk why I thought we lose once its 3 to 6. But either way, I still think it's too much of a risk because if we mislynch at that point, then it's 3 to 6, another village dies and then its 3 to 5. At that point it becomes mislynch or lose.
This isn't necessarily true. Based off of who gets lynched and who dies during the night could cause our primary suspects to completely change.
Risk a myslynch early on or wait till LYLO????????? Damn it's really hard to see which one is safer! Xd xd xd xd xd xd xd
you are greatly underestimating mafia and heavily overestimating villages general competency in terms of figuring out things from a kill, worst comes to worst they go to a rand kill or just kill an idler which isn't indicative of anything
I never said that...? I literally said we should at least wait a day before we risk a tie lynch so we at least have some information based off of who dies. Even if it ends up being an idler or something like that it gives us something to work with instead of risking two village lynches and then basically setting us up for an extremely difficult game.
we are getting information regardless. What is the point of waiting a day exactly? We will get one death and a cop that should not be able to claim (unless we Lynch a scum and cop hits another scum). Myslynches are much less impactful early on than later on so it's far safer risking it now hitting both people that we suspect to be scum than 50-50 and potentially miss and waste day 2 lynching the same person. Time is against village so we need information asap
What?
Okay, but if we're both village then village is screwed, and you're back in the same position except with less people. It's almost as if you're okay with lynching two village on the first day. If you are okay with that, then that's highly suspicious, and if you're not then you're taking a risk that isn't worth it.
So, lynching two people D1 is an awful idea. That said, I would also never expect a mafia person to say it so ironically I give haruno a slight town read for it.
Topic for discussion: Peeking.
Now I don't claim to be an expert on it, but one thing I've seen in a past smogon NOC was a strategy known as peeking where each day several people would post cop results. This allowed the cop to post the results of their inspection while also having anonymousity because of the other people posting. Meaning that if the cop died before they claimed, they weren't entirely useless. (Ie, the cop would post their real results while 2-3 other people who aren't cops would also post their phoney results).
Again, never really tried it before personally. But in this set up it might be a good bet. Thoughts?
Topic for discussion: Peeking.
Now I don't claim to be an expert on it, but one thing I've seen in a past smogon NOC was a strategy known as peeking where each day several people would post cop results. This allowed the cop to post the results of their inspection while also having anonymousity because of the other people posting. Meaning that if the cop died before they claimed, they weren't entirely useless. (Ie, the cop would post their real results while 2-3 other people who aren't cops would also post their phoney results).
Again, never really tried it before personally. But in this set up it might be a good bet. Thoughts?
Double lynching d1 sounds horrible, even if we were decently confident in both targets to be honest. I just don't see it as a worthwhile risk.
I have no idea what king is doing thusfar, but until he does something other than just list names and vote I can't really get any info out of it.
On peeking, I feel it is too likely for people to mess up their peeks in a new player game. You have to make sure that you constantly follow your peeks, both scum and town, otherwise risk narrowing down the cop options for the mafia. I personally am against it, but will follow if majority wants it.
I have no idea what king is doing thusfar, but until he does something other than just list names and vote I can't really get any info out of it.
On peeking, I feel it is too likely for people to mess up their peeks in a new player game. You have to make sure that you constantly follow your peeks, both scum and town, otherwise risk narrowing down the cop options for the mafia. I personally am against it, but will follow if majority wants it.
There won't be two village deaths so that's no big deal.
Awful idea. You'll have village constantly come up with random bullshit on who is cop and who isn't (while most likely being wrong) and cop could get caught up in the crossfire since I trust mafia being able to discern cop claims far more than I trust village doing the same. then again cop staying hidden and posting their reads (think Texas in death note) fucked town over massively So we should never claim cop unless it either brings us down to 1 scum OR cop has 3 clears. Otherwise cop should never claim.
Alright catch up time.
I'm not buying the Haruno target on Whydon up to post 77, I don't think the reasoning you target him for (creating a biggie wagon) holds since that wagon had pretty much died off at that point in time and nothing he's said up to post 77 jumps out as scummy to me. That being said, reads lists without adding any substantial pressure is suspect in and of itself so Whydon's follow up post doesn't look great at 81.
As for the double lynch/single lynch argument...it's a tough call and Haruno does make a compelling argument about time pressures given by scum opportunities to find out the cop but I'm not sure it's the best idea on day 1, feels to me like something better implemented on day 2. I think at this point we have relatively little to go on to the point that unless we're confident we have at least one scum among two targets we should avoid the option, whereas on day 2 with a flip and a cop influence the odds of catching a scum in a double lynch are much more likely. I'm not opposed to the double lynch but I think we'd need to be cautious with it given the risk and have to be mostly communally agreed on targets that both are good shots at scum.
On that note, Haruno what made you change your mind between 73 and 90 to make Moody being a lynch you can almost buy to being a "dumb as fuck" lynch? He's still responsible for some very scummy behaviour that he hasn't accounted for and would a lynch i'm comfortable with. Unless you mean you think Whydon is 100% a better one? Although even then you could advocate for the double lynch. Not sure where you're going here with that flip flop.
Former Hope's post reinforces the earlier town oriented impression on the surface with his seemingly town oriented post but I'm suspicious. It's odd timing to bring a tangential topic up for discussion in the middle of an undecided lynch and could be used to deflect attention away from a wagon shift. Minor FoS here.
King is almost worth policy lynching given he's added nothing but random votes to the entirety of the day but that's better saved for d2 at best given our better alternatives right now.
Mithril isn't lock town atm but definitely a hard town read right now for me
At the moment I'm comfortable with my vote on MoodyCloud given my earlier suspicion of them not being allayed, Whydon I can sort of buy but I'm not really seeing anything too inherently scummy to their play
I'm not buying the Haruno target on Whydon up to post 77, I don't think the reasoning you target him for (creating a biggie wagon) holds since that wagon had pretty much died off at that point in time and nothing he's said up to post 77 jumps out as scummy to me. That being said, reads lists without adding any substantial pressure is suspect in and of itself so Whydon's follow up post doesn't look great at 81.
As for the double lynch/single lynch argument...it's a tough call and Haruno does make a compelling argument about time pressures given by scum opportunities to find out the cop but I'm not sure it's the best idea on day 1, feels to me like something better implemented on day 2. I think at this point we have relatively little to go on to the point that unless we're confident we have at least one scum among two targets we should avoid the option, whereas on day 2 with a flip and a cop influence the odds of catching a scum in a double lynch are much more likely. I'm not opposed to the double lynch but I think we'd need to be cautious with it given the risk and have to be mostly communally agreed on targets that both are good shots at scum.
On that note, Haruno what made you change your mind between 73 and 90 to make Moody being a lynch you can almost buy to being a "dumb as fuck" lynch? He's still responsible for some very scummy behaviour that he hasn't accounted for and would a lynch i'm comfortable with. Unless you mean you think Whydon is 100% a better one? Although even then you could advocate for the double lynch. Not sure where you're going here with that flip flop.
Former Hope's post reinforces the earlier town oriented impression on the surface with his seemingly town oriented post but I'm suspicious. It's odd timing to bring a tangential topic up for discussion in the middle of an undecided lynch and could be used to deflect attention away from a wagon shift. Minor FoS here.
King is almost worth policy lynching given he's added nothing but random votes to the entirety of the day but that's better saved for d2 at best given our better alternatives right now.
Mithril isn't lock town atm but definitely a hard town read right now for me
At the moment I'm comfortable with my vote on MoodyCloud given my earlier suspicion of them not being allayed, Whydon I can sort of buy but I'm not really seeing anything too inherently scummy to their play
I don't get this post you were fine with lunch in both whydon and moody all of 10 posts ago and now the moody lynch is retarded. This bothers me.
After reading back through, I'm a little more confident in the moody vote and am pretty unsure between them and whydon, although admittedly whydon has been better after going after biggie (and I'll not that I feel Martin isn't since he refused this after it had dissipated).
I'm going to go with moody for now though. Seems more likely scum than. E, but I am still very wary of whydon, and am now keeping an eye on Haruno and Martin. And if King would post something useful that would be great.
Vote moodycloud