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Discussion in 'Circus Maximus' started by Blue_Tornado, Feb 13, 2013.
Askaninjask please address this:
I'd really like to hear your take on Walrein.
Walrein didn't post things as often 'telling newer users how to play', which was my primary signal against you. Walrein responded well (at least I think so) to Day 1 pressure, and he was also the recipient of SL, Metal Sonic, and More Cowbell votes immediately after I voted him. The quick and immediate bandwagon of new users could be due to (in addition to newness) some elation that someone not on their team was being lynched.
I don't know if a mafia Walrein would post a sentry vote on himself; I think he's a much more cautious player usually and that's a pretty bold move.
He DID, however, staunchy support a SL lynch for a long time. He did call for reads on me and then say that he thought I was fine, without me posting (wtf). He did hammer Cypher, but I was a part of that lynch as well so I can't blame him. Reading the thread, I didn't realize it was a hammer either until it was pointed out later.
Honestly, your playstyles have been completely different and I don't understand why you are insisting you guys played the same Day 1. I also never used "you never differ from majority opinion" as an argument against you. My argument was that you seemed to deliberately avoid confrontations with other users. Now you are finally picking fights (with Walrein, specifically) that weren't handed to you, so I feel at least a little bit comfortable that you aren't being lynched.
In short, I pressured you because you had the scummiest Day 1 by a significant margin.
responses in bold
I'll analyze Eagle4 later tonight since people are coming out of the woodwork to call him scummy.
I'm tired of quoting posts so screw that...
Askaninjask I fail to understand why you insist on using the "deliberately avoiding confrontation" argument against me but not Walrein. Walrein has just been going along with the general opinion this entire time. Walrein was apart of every major bandwagon that's happened (Shining Latios, Infinity.Cypher, mine) without giving really any valid reasons, other than the Shining Latios lynch, but I thought Walrein would be able to deduce how horrible that lynch was. Obviously that wasn't the case.
I have no problem with you calling me out because you think that I'm avoiding confrontation, but apply that argument to everyone it applies to, don't just have tunnel vision and only use it against me. I really don't like that last post of yours because I would expect you to notice how Walrein is doing the exact same thing you claim I am doing. Walrein generally being a cautious players is no excuse for the indecisiveness and lack of content in his posts.
Walrein LightWolf was in Lockdown 2: http://www.smogon.com/forums/showthread.php?t=63876
I understand you have IRL issues, but I'd much rather you post less often and actually have analyzable (?) content in your post than having you post crappy, dinky posts that either don't add anything to the discussion. I'm not judging anyone based on activity, (unless someone is actively lurking) but on the quality of their posts. I don't know why you felt the need to mention your other commitments, seems like a last ditch excuse.
And Walrein, if you don't mind I'd like to have that zorbees analysis you said you would do as well as the Eagle4 one.
I'd probably switch my vote to Eagle4 at the moment, but I don't want to make it L-1 and give someone the chance to hammer. I'd like to see him respond to some of the criticisms though.
Spiffy, IIRC I was the second vote on you, so it wasn't so much going along with the crowd as "aska raises a bunch of valid points lets see how Spiffy responds"
Totally forgot about the whole zorbees analysis thing, I've got stuff to do right now but I swear to god I will post it asap
I'm trying to work on overcoming the non-confrontational part of my nature, but it's clearly not working :/
I want to post to say that I am not too thrilled with this Eagle4 lynch. I just looked through all of his posts, and while that are not objectively town posts, there is nothing that hops out as "hey this guy is bad." He has talked a lot about playstyles and general game subjects, which could be argued as detracting from discussing specific players, but seeing as this type of discussion formed a large part of all Day 1 discussion I don't think he can be blamed. I just personally don't get this lynch; it seems incredibly bandwagony and I would really like a simple answer as to why we're lynching him, and why SL and shinyskarmory sort of fell off the lynch-radar.
SL is probably confused newbie town; idk about SS
But why Eagle4? I legitimately don't get it
eagle's recent reactions have been good, at this point, i don't really want to lynch him today. I do think that zorbees unwilling to put him at L-1 is quite strange, but I'm not quite sure if that's a scum tell. Anyways, i probably will look at this more in depth tonight and get back to yall
god i need more motivation to do this...
First, let me start this post by saying that I am only going to respond to things pertaining to me right now-laying in bed with an iPhone and I want to go to bed.
Sorry for the inactivity guys, especially for the need to be prodded. I kind of managed to make 2 days out of the last 3 days(this involves the watching a bit tv before sleeping ending up keeping me up for 4-5 more hours and then my family constantly asking me question then sleeping over the remainder of the day...) Either way I didn't have anything to post last time I checked online, but now I will read things over and post at a later time(in part because I have much to read up on and part because god damnit I slept for god knows how long, because I need to get ready to go back to my uni place from home today aaaaaand because I have the sudden urge to play LoL... Hey I'm honest at least)
So yeah I'm active I swear!
zorbees' day one was full of what I like to call the billymills style of play - bouncing his vote around to different users, applying pressure to as many different people as possible, etc etc. He didn't post tl;dr's like some other users (thank god or this analysis would take days), but he did voice opinions and apply pressure. One very important detail: his opinions are UNIQUE. In company mafia, I squeaked by for a few days by posting opinions that other people had already mentioned, simply paraphrased and sometimes elaborated on. zorbees was IIRC one of the only users on D1 to voice suspicion of the now-AWOL Empoof, and his reasoning behind it was solid to boot.
One thing I find odd about zorbees is his aversion to putting people at L-1. Yes, it's bad for people to sneak in and hammer, but if it's a pretty obvious mafia hammer, then you have someone to lynch the next day, and if it's a pretty obvious village hammer, that's one more person you don't have to run through the suspicion gauntlet. I'm not saying that I approve of wanton hammering (including my own Cypher KO), but it's not always something to be avoided like the plague, especially when the lynch target isn't very contributory anyways.
And now, the moment you've all been waiting for - Walrein trying to make sense of the zorbees - Spiffy relationship. If you can't tell, I feel like zorbees is probably town, which leads to a few conclusions for the sudden switch from bickering to Walreining:
-Spiffy the townie offers legitimate concerns about me in his defense, and zorbees agrees and switches
-Spiffy the mafioso desperately throws out my name as a potential lynching target because my playstyle can come across as scummy and zorbees buys it
-Somehow they're both mafia and this entire thing is a brilliant ploy to make you both seem cleaner (I find this unlikely, but seriously, if this is the case then ALL of my hats are off to you. Including the fedora.)
I find that the chances of zorbees scum+Spiffy town are negligible, given the latter's shifty D1 play and the former's solid play. If zorbees is scum, then Spiffy probably is too.
zorbees's reaction to aska's accusation of copying is reasonable. Smogon mafia has developed a pretty common set of colloquialisms to describe things, and I find it perfectly believable that zorbees just happened to use the same phrase as aska, particularly if the former just finished reading the latter's post.
Basically, zorbees has been a reasonable user with good logic, and I can't really find a fault in his playstyle. IMO, one of the best things he's done is that even while he was tunneling Spiffy, he still found the time to post opinions on other users as well, something UncleSam and Galladiator should note for the future.
As a conclusion:
tomorrow: Eagle4 analysis
Quickreads on everyone besides the two I've analyzed in detail because I've barely been posting lately:
-Shining Latios: As I've been saying lately, strikes me as a confused newbie town who doesn't know what he's doing.
-Eagle4: I'll be honest, I have a tendency to skim his posts because they're rather longish and I'm lazy, but he strikes me as attempting to make contributions. Indepth analysis on him tomorrow, like I said
-Empoof: Pretty decent village read on him, but he needs to recover from his goddamn alcohol poisoning and get back on the computer
-More Cowbell: Is it just me, or has he not posted in a while? Still noob town read.
-askaninjask: One of my stronger village reads at the moment. Vintage aska up in this.
-TPM: another freaking noobtown read
-Jalmont: Went from trolling to making good posts. I feel like a mafia would pick one or the other, and his good posts have had good content, so he's probably village.
-shinyskarmory: Something about this guy rubs me the wrong way, and it's not his propensity to nolynch. This is more of a gut feeling than anything else, but I feel like he could easily be scum.
-Metal Sonic: what the hell.
Still waiting for Eagle4's reply... you're at L-2 mate; and your last reply to me and More Cowbell, was quite... unsatisfactory.
You said that you were unhappy about Lightwolf, yet you voted for shinyskarmory instead? Why is that? Did shinyskarmory happen to seem scummier than Lightwolf at that point of time? Then the point is invalid in rebutting the "go-with-the-flow"argument; you were placing less emphasis on lightwolf and more on SS.
And then suddenly you switch to SL after my suggestion? So SL is scummier than SS, why did you not vote for him first?
Your replies aren't as good as Spiffy's, even though you have more votes than him now at this point of time. Shouldn't you be trying harder?
also lol walrein a++ read on me you have there^
Eagle4: (5) Jalmont shinyskarmory More Cowbell Metal Sonic askaninjask L-2
Shining Latios: (2) shinyskarmory More Cowbell LightWolf Eagle4
Walrein: (2) Spiffy zorbees
shinyskarmory: (1) zorbees Shining Latios Eagle4
zorbees: (1) Spiffy TPM
Spiffy: (0) askaninjask Walrein Metal Sonic zorbees
Not Voting: (2) Empoof Walrein
askaninjask: (5) askaninjask Spiffy Metal Sonic Walrein TPM
Jalmont: (2) Jalmont zorbees
shinyskarmory: (1) shinyskarmory
More Cowbell: (1) More Cowbell
zorbees: (1) Shining Latios
Spiffy: (1) Eagle4
Walrein: (0) Eagle4 askaninjask Walrein
LightWolf: (0) Spiffy TPM
Not Voting: (2) LightWolf, Empoof
With 13 alives it takes 7 to lynch. Deadline is in 28 hours, 4:00 PM GMT.
Walrein, I'm not really opposed to hammering, I am just of the opinion that we should make the most of the hours provided to us by the host. When I posted that I didn't want to put him to L-1, we had over 36 hours until deadline.
I'm still not satisfied with ShinySkarmory's lack of effort in posting reads/analysis. I hounded him for this on Day 1, and he has yet to change.
Answers in bold
I messed up my quote brackets there, but I can't edit. I hope it's clear enough like this.
Warning: This is gonna be a long post since there's a lot I need to reply to.
Well, I completely disagree with thinking that you should have to "think outside the box", since the obvious lynch targets are the ones who have been acting suspicous and are probably scum. For your question, I'd have to say LightWolf as the most likely scum, since he's seemingly avoiding questions thrown at him and I don't like his reasons for being inactive; they don't make a lot of sense.
Wait.. so you don't like the post because it has legitimate reasoning? Or am I misinterpreting your post here? Of course I acknowledged your post and Zorbees' post, but there was literally nothing to respond to. You do mean this post, right? I don't see anyway I can respond to that post except pointing out that it's stupid saying I'm scum because I make coherent posts. Zorbees' post is a near replica of yours.
zorbees that doesn't make sense because if you put someone at L-1 you aren't hammering them. putting someone at L-1 doesn't mean much because the chances of somebody hammering at such an early point in the game is extraordinarily low. even if someone does hammer it's pretty much a guarantee trade off of a villager for a mafia so that actually helps us (which is why it wouldn't happen)
yeeah i'm just going to steal walrein's line of thought here
actually nvm walrein thinks zorbees is good so i will provide my own reasons at a later point in time since i have oral surgery today. so yeah ignore that last line lol
There's no guarantee that if there is a hammer, it is a mafia member. for example, walrein accidentally hammered d1. Additionally, some of the newer players might not be aware that hammering too early is bad. Is that all you're basing your vote off of?
I am going to unvote walrein, vote shinyskarmory. He is the strongest scum read I have. If anyone wants me to restate my reasoning, I will.
I love how everybody thinks I'm but nobody votes me for whatever reason.
Anyways, I'm not a fan of how Zorbees refused to put Eagle4 at L-1; honestly it just seems like a copout to me. If you think he's mafia then vote him. People not voting just leads to us having trouble throwing a majority together before deadline (on Day 1 the last second switch to Cypher almost failed because nobody was on. In hindsight, of course, Cypher wasn't scum, but I think we rushed that lynch because everybody wanted to lynch somebody but the experienced players didn't want to lynch SL.
I am going on a college campus tour and won't be able to respond seriously until at least 4 PM EST. I won't be back at a computer until at least 6. Don't lynch me during that time-I can give you reads when I'm at a computer but as I said earlier, they're very likely to be shit because I am not a very good reader (see: Company Mafia).
Bye for now.
In regards to "if you feel like he's mafia, then vote him":
I said in that post that I wanted to give him a chance to respond. Obviously this means I was not 100% sold on it. Even if I was 100% sold on it, that doesn't mean I cannot be wrong. Obviously an early hammer on a mafia would be fine, but there is no guarantee that he is mafia. If he is town, an early hammer cuts us out of discussion time, and is not guaranteed to find a scum.
I wish I had more input; its not that I don't to be active in this game I'm just not quite sure how. But I do have something say now, and that is that I am really starting to believe in a zorbees - Eagle4 scumteam. I know I posted earlier how I didn't understand the Eagle4 lynch, but I think I am going to along with it now. Zorbees has constantly mentioned how he thinks Eagle4 might be scum, but he always offers him a way out at the same time; he has not actually put voting pressure on him. He just kept making excuses. This alone was not enough to fuel my suspicion. This did it though:
Zorbees has been a pretty active player today; I do not think it acceptable at this point to say you "haven't really noticed him." He also goes on to claim that he "looked through the thread" but the only actual reasoning he gives is Walrein's post. Maybe I am a bit biased because I wasn't particularly influenced by that post, but I don't think that constitutes as forming an opinion, especially when all you pair it with is "looked through the thread." (Really, thats an awful reasoning.) So, I'm going to take the "risk" and put Eagle4 at L-1. I really don't want this to end in a hammer, but at this point this is the vote I am most confident in.