My two cents worth to this issue:
I've read a lot of posts in this thread about how something should be banned not because it's broken, but because it has a detrimental effect on the metagame. Oh, boy. This statement is pretty much bullshit as it makes little to no sense.
Two things first: if something is broken, it sure as hell has a detrimental effect on the metagame. Second, how would you define something as 'detrimental to the metagame'? Some might argue that Stealth Rock is 'detrimental to the metagame' because it 'limits the diversity of Pokemon' as it 'favors those Pokemon who are resistant to it'. That's like arguing something should be banned because it's better than something else; and in fact, if you were to stop and think for a second, you'd realize that everything good limits diversity. It's called natural selection; stuff isn't used because it sucks, and that's life. If you've got a problem with that, then you might as well be banning humans off the face of the planet, because we 'limit the diversity of life on Earth'.
Arguing whether or not something is 'detrimental to the metagame' or not becomes incredibly arbitrary. Since it's very difficult to classify something in that way, the only way we can really determine whether something is ban-worthy is whether or not it's broken, which is the way Smogon has always done things anyway. If a Pokemon is broken, then it should be so powerful that it is near impossible to stop; it has very few, if any, counters or checks, and can very easily be used to pull off sweeps with little effort.
Let's take Excadrill and analyze it in this fashion; in Sand, an Adamant-natured Excadrill can come in at 405 attack and 550 speed, without any boosts. If you thought that was rigged, you'll obviously be pleased to know that after forcing a switch and at +2, Excadrill reaches a shocking 810 and 550 speed with a single turn of setup. Add this to a pseudo-StoneQuake combo in STAB Earthquake + Rock Slide, and you've got a very fearsome sweeper. On top of all that, Excadrill is immune to Sandstorm, Thunder Wave, Toxic, resistant to SR and is unaffected by Toxic Spikes; in other words, it can only really be hindered by a Burn or Spikes - and that's considered whatever you're trying to Burn it with can survive an attack first. Jellicent isn't likely to be surviving a +2 EQ any time soon, and very few Rotom-W carry Will-O-Wisp anyway.
Take a look at Excadrill's checks and counters now. The 'hardest counter' to Excadrill is Skarmory, as it is unaffected by EQ, and takes nominal damage from Rock Slide + Return/X-Scissor/Brick Break. Not far behind are Gliscor and Bronzong, who are both immune to EQ, take little from Rock Slide, and are resistant to X-Scissor and Return respectively. Now if you were to stop and look at these Pokemon for a second, you'll see one thing in common for all of them: all are very fallible 'counters'. Skarmory obviously can't do much against Excadrill once it comes in; the only thing it's able to do is phaze it out with Whirlwind, a course of action which risks being flinched by a Rock Slide. I've seen multiple Skarmory users come in and just start Spiking, which is about as funny as it gets, because just switching in does zit; if you don' Whirlwind, Excadrill can just keep SD'ing until its Rock Slide is within 2HKO range. Gliscor is also commonly cited as a very good counter, but the standard Poison Heal Gliscor risks being 2HKO'd by +2 Adamant Air Balloon Excadrill's Return after SR, while all it can really in return is do marginal damage with Ice Fang/Facade and break Exca's AB. Bronzong is even worse, as it can't damage Exca at all, and is unable to use either T-wave OR Toxic against it. In fact, Ferrothorn actually does much better against Exca than any of these Pokemon; at the very least, Sticky Barb and Leech Seed (if you can get it in), coupled with LO recoil, will allow residual damage to take its toll.
Since Excadrill's counters are fairly flawed, the other way it can be defeated is priority. The most commonly used priority moves include Aqua Jet, Vacuum Wave, Mach Punch, Bullet Punch, and Extreme Speed. Excadrill resists both Bullet Punch and Extreme Speed (although in my experience CB Scizor's BP does around ~30% damage to the standard Excadrill), while Aqua Jet is only commonly seen on Azumarill, who requires a CB (thus easing prediction) to OHKO Exca. Vacuum Wave is only commonly seen on Lucario and Infernape (who have seen decreases in usage this gen and even then don't run these moves 100% of the time), while the best users of Mach Punch, Hitmontop and Conkeldurr, are rarely seen, and fail to OHKO, respectively. Excadrill has 'shit defenses', you say? If it can survive a x2 effective LO Mach Punch from a base 140 attack monster, I'd say that's pretty fucking buff. Add all this to the ease in which Excadrill comes into Sand in the modern metagame, and you can see the beast that this thing is. Insane attack and speed stats, fearsome STAB, solid resistances and bulk, etc. Ring a bell? Those sound a lot like the reasons Garchomp was banned to me.
Of course, Excadrill hardly makes the cut for UU without Sand, but that line leads straight to the 'issue' of 'Weather Wars'. The prevalence of Sand and Excadrill particularly encourage the use of Drizzle and Rain Teams, which present a whole new issue altogether. Sand was always the predominant weather in Gen IV OU, but its presence was largely negligible, as it did not have too drastic effects on the metagame. With Gen V, however, this story is entirely different. Drizzle x Sand pretty much sums up the metagame at the moment, and it's quite easy to Drizzle's appeal. Instantly summoning permanent Rain, its main benefits include a 100% accurate Thunder, pseudo-STAB water attacks, and weakened Fire attacks. Obviously, water has an advantage over the typings of Pokemon of the other weathers, namely the largely Ground and Rock type Pokemon of Sand, and the Fire type pokemon of Drought (sun). Combine this with dual STAB, the rain abuser Thundurus, and the ubiquity of near-impossible to kill pokemon like Ferrothorn, Forretress, Scizor in Rain, Drizzle is a very potent force. What exactly can survive repeated dual STAB water attacks? Even special walls with the bulk of Blissey and Eviolite Chansey get worn down by the sheer power of these attacks, while attempts to switch in the likes of Water Absorb Jellicent are immediately met by Thunder(s). Now add Thundurus into the mix; already a powerful sweeper, priority Substitutes and Nasty Plots, combined with STAB Thunders, tears shit up left and right, while all you're able to do is make your deathbed and pray to God that residual damage will somehow wear Thundurus down. And whoever said Politoed is useless is shitting themselves, because as it can run fairly diverse movesets in a fairly solid (not to mention uncanny andunexpected) revenge killer with a Scarf (which is also an Excadrill check), but a powerful special sweeper with Specs, and provides great synergy with its support movesets.
So let's revisit some of the main issues brought up in this round V of suspect testing: Excadrill in Sand, Drizzle (and to some extent Thundurus), and 'Weather Wars'.
We all know how deadly Excadrill is in Sand; while it is true that a lack of Sand seriously cripples it, the fact is that in a weather-dominated metagame, it won't be losing its Sand support any time soon. However, that it would hardly make the cut for UU (or even lower) without Sand clearly indicates that the Pokemon itself is not broken; it'd be like a Rhyperior, with incredible sweeping potential, but a crippling speed stat. We've already seen Drizzle + Swift Swim get banned; is it time to entertain the idea of a ban on Sandstream + Sand Rush?
We've seen the drastic effects of Drizzle on the metagame, while conversely we've also seen how the metagame is fairly indifferent to the prevalence of Sandstorm. I'd personally advocate for Drizzle to be banned, simply because it becomes much too advantageous, to the point where it is fairly impossible to handle, for Pokemon who thrive under it; and for those protestors of the 'Weather Wars', well, Drizzle only exacerbates this problem, and a ban will quickly solve this issue as well. Additionally, Thundurus will be much easier to handle in a metagme without Drizzle and Sand Rush Excadrill.
So the breakdown? Round V should see the banning of Drizzle and Sandstream + Sand Rush.
Complex bans have already been seen, and since Sandstream and Sand Rush are viable abilities on their own, I see no reason why they should be banned altogether, merely when they put together.
Why not just ban all weathers? Well for one, I've already pointed out the the last generation faired well even with the presence of Sandstorm. Additionally, it's not clear whether Drought will have such a great impact on the metagame as Drizzle. So what about Drought, exactly? For one, the banning of Drizzle is likely to see a prevalence of Drought, and while its effects cannot be determined exactly now, the next step will provide a perfect opportunity to analyze Drought (and for at least one round). Until then, it is fairly useless to speculate on the metagame after Drizzle goes. Similarly, it does little good to guess at what the metagame will be like once Sand + Sand Rush (and possibly Exca) go.
So what does this mean next?
These bannings I've suggested present two problems: the prolonging of Suspect testing, and the community becoming too ban-happy. Obviously, all I can say is that with the changes Gen V has brought us, the metagame was always far from settling down. As for being ban-happy (i.e. banning Drizzle now, and perhaps banning Drought later), just because many things need to be analyzed does not make anyone 'ban-happy'. It's a fact that Gen V has brought us many powerful changes and it takes time to be able to review all of them; just because it takes a little longer does not mean it is a process to be feared. As long as an impartial reviewing process is applied to these bannings, Smogon should be fine.
It'll be interesting to things how things play out next if these bans take effect. For the fans of Drought, it seems like the time for the Sun to shine (pun intended) has finally come. I, for one, look forward to the next round with great anticipation.
