NOC OC NOC GAME OVER - Now Despair

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smashlloyd20 said:
Ooookay so

I had a moderately strong scum read on Haruno D1 but I honestly wasn't confident enough in my own read to really push forward with that, so I ended up just following the wagon on Cancerous because at that point I trusted Texas' read more than mine. Obviously he has to come under a bit of suspicion for leading a wagon that killed a villager, but considering I joined said wagon and he hasn't really acted scummy in any noticeable way, and has done a good job pushing town forward, I think it would be idiotic to lynch him atm.

LightWolf screams town to me. Getting a scum read on Fort but that could be because of out of game association so I don't feel too confident in pushing that angle.

My night action checks who someone targets at night. I targeted Haruno last night because I was quite suspicious of him, as I indicated on Day 1. My result was that he targeted nobody, which makes me somewhat less inclined to believe he's scum because I feel like mafia members would be more likely to have power roles they'd want to use at night (this could be false logic ftr I don't know a whole lot about NOC design).

That said, I think we should look at the impact of who the mafia killed: Walrein (assuming that was mafia and not a vigilante or something idk). Walrein's main contribution on Day 1, towards the end anyway, was pushing a lynch on Blank Slate. That's a huge red flag for me, so for the moment:

Lynch blank slate
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there
 
I mean Vet kills whoever targets them, and all things considered, smashlloyd likely did, unless he is scum too then go figure, but it certainly puts Haruno up against two people.
 
Let's do some research

Lynch Count 1
lynch moodycloud: vanillish wafer, pancake, fort colorcastle (3)
lynch cancerous: texas cloverleaf, martin, smashlloyd, former hope, Moodycloud (5)
lynch walrein: asek, cancerous, blank slate (3)
lynch blank slate: walrein, blazade (2)
lynch shubaka: acidphoenix (1)
lynch Haruno: lightwolf (1)
lynch Martin: ButteredToast (1)
NOT VOTING: aubisio, whydon, knightsofcydonia, haruno, shubaka (5)

On lynch: texas cloverleaf, martin, smashlloyd, former hope, Moodycloud
Off lynch: moody, vanillish, pancake, fort colors, asek, cancerous, blank slate, walrein, blazade, acidphoenix, lightwolf, buttered toast, aubisio, whydon, knightsofcydonia, haruno, shubaka

Counterwagon 1 (NOT VOTING): aubisio, whydon, knightsofcydonia, haruno, shubaka
Counterwagon 2a (Moody): vanillish, pancake, fort colorcastle
Countewagon 2b (Walrein): asek, cancerous, blank slate

Lynch count 2
lynch blankslate: lloyd, pancake (2)
lynch moody: lightwolf, butteredtoast, fort colorcastle, aubisio (4)
lynch shubaka: moody, martin, texas, phoenix, blazade, haruno (6)
lynch aubisio: blank slate (1)
NOT VOTING: vanillish, former hope, asek, whydon, shubaka, knightsofcydonia (6)

On lynch: moody, martin, texas, phoenix, blazade, haruno
Off lynch: lloyd, pancake, lightwolf, butteredtoast, fort colorcastle, aubsio, blank slate, vanillish, former hope, asek, whydon, shubaka, knightsofcydonia

Counterwagon 1 (NOT VOTING): vanillish, former hope, asek, whydon, shubaka, knightsofcydonia
Counterwagon 2: lightwolf, butteredtoast, fort colorcastle, aubisio

Assumption: 5 scum or 4 with multiple neutrals
Assumption: pancake is neutral

heuristic: scum want to be in middle of wagon
suspects: martin/smashlloyd/former hope, martin/texas/acidphoenix/blazade


heuristic: scum avoid grouping, will not have more than half scum on single wagon
implication: max scum on wagon=2
implication: min scum off wagon=2


heuristic: not voting=wagon
heuristic: scum like to split wagons between main wagon and off wagon

lynch 1: texas cloverleaf, martin, smashlloyd, former hope, Moodycloud
probability of 1-2 scum on wagon
counterwagon1: not voting=aubisio, whydon, knightsofcydonia, haruno
probability of 1-2 scum on counterwagon
bandwagon aggregation combining moody/walrein (3+3=6)=vanillish, pancake, fort, blank slate
strong probability of 1 scum on bw aggregate
bandwagon aggregation combining shubaka/haruno/martin (1+1+1=3)=lightwolf, butteredtoast, acidphoenix
moderate probability of 1 scum on bw aggregate

lynch 2: moody, martin, texas, phoenix, blazade, haruno
probability of 1-2 scum on wagon
counterwagon 2a: not voting=vanillish, former hope, whydon, knightsofcydonia
counterwagon 2b: moody=lightwolf, butteredtoast, fort colorcastle, aubisio
probability of 1-2 scum on counter wagon
no bandwagon aggregation

commonalities
texas cloverleaf on both lynches
moody on both lynches (but as counterwagon)
martin on both lynches
former hope on lynch 1, on counterwagon lynch 2
whydon on counterwagon lynch 1 and lynch 2 (not voting each time)
knightsfocydonia on counterwagon lynch 1 and lynch 2 (not voting each time)
haruno on counterwagon lynch 1, on lynch 2
vanillish in bw aggregation lynch 1, counterwagon lynch 2
aubusio on counterwagon primary lynch 1 and secondary counterwagon lynch 2 (not voting, vote moody) (weak evidence)
fort colorcastle is on bw aggregate lynch 1 and counterwagon 2b lynch 2 (weak evidence)
acidphoenix is on small bw aggregate and lynch 2 (weak evidence)
butteredtoast is on small bw aggregate and counterwagon 2b

Conclusions
Among Texas/moody/martin there is maximum one scum, zero scum more probable. Scum want to avoid being on town lynch wagons and being on both is a major target

Whydon and KnightsOfCydonia are highly probable scum, both actively Not Voting and avoiding VC associations while being on the actual main counterwagon

Former Hope and Haruno are probable scum targets, being on one lynch and one counterwagon. Former Hope is particularly suspect for being the fourth vote on the main wagon, prime scum territory

Vanillish is a probable scum target, being among the counterwagon on lynch two and hiding among counterbandwagons lynch 1. Vanillish's votes are reflective of a desire to place votes while remaining safe.

IF Fort Colorcastle is town one of Vanillish or Blank Slate is almost certainly scum due to PoE on the d1 combined wagon
IF Fort Colorcastle and LightWolf are town one of ButteredToast and Aubisio are almost certainly scum due to PoE on the d2 moody wagon
IF LightWolf is town, ButteredToast is probable scum due to PoE on counterwagon and vote hiding d1

Two of KnightsOfCydonia/Haruno/Whydon/Aubisio are probably scum. Occam's Razor suggests Aubisio is not scum due to scumminess of other three. Therefore one of Knights/Whydon/Haruno is certain town.


Reads (Towny to Scummy)

{Walrein, Martin}
{Fort Colorcastle, Aubisio}
{LightWolf, Blazade, MoodyCloud, Blank Slate}
{smashlloyd20, acidphoenix, Haruno}
{Whydon, Former Hope, ButteredToast}
{KnightsOfCydonia, Vanillish Wafer}
 
Has anyone else felt like ButteredToast's aggression has been manufactured and ingenuine?

He has posts like this that seem designed to appear to towny
Half ass your response to appear to be "active." Hell, nearly all of the responses to his questions were half assed or just jokes. Which show how no one is going to put the time to answering the questions seriously enough to make people try to answer and put thought into town, which plays into the mafia's hands because they can skate out of Day 1 with minimal effort.

And then you have people like Asek who has already voted for 3 people without any reason or discussion being generated and serves for spamming the thread in a different way.

Both the questions and the random votes are not generating any type of game play that the town needs because it is just jokes and spam, and that hurts us as town more than it helps us.

A message to all - If you are going to answer the questions, please take the time to answer them with some thought behind them. Don't just goof off. And if you're going to random lynch someone, have it go somewhere huh? If you swap votes every time someone passes gas, what are you even doing with yourself but just trying to fake be active?
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And then also posts like this that are hyper aggressive without much reason
There is too much fucking noise and nonsense that has happened to end day 1 that I don't even know where to begin to comprehend any and all of it. The entirety of all those last minute lynch wagons was sewage but there are so many damned people involved I don't know where to start.
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And read like appeals to emotion to garner sympathy
I played in a chess tournament today, and when I came home I tried to sort out this piece of shit game and try to post something of some type of substance. I have contracted a migraine the size of Jupiter trying to do so and it is a fucking nightmare. The entire end of day one lynch clusterfuck. We had to lynch someone, but the fact that everyone is going after 3 fucking options is nuts. I have no fucking clue to make out what the hell is going on with half of the thread based on the night actions. I had to look up what a fucking mason is, and that compounds my fucking understanding of shit and the roles for this game seem more like there is every weird fucking thing under the sun all fucking with each other all at once.

This is a pretty fucking ugly and messy NOC. Add to the fact that people are claiming fucking village power roles way too fucking early with no fucking reason makes me want to bang my head into my office wall.

I'm following what all is happening, but it's really fucking awful to try to put together some form of damned theory as to what is happening and trying to determine who the fuck to even try to make a lynch case on. My reads are more players that trying to overcompensate and make something when I don't think there is anything there... and that doesn't do us any good because I can see both alignments doing that shit.
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To quote aubisio, "fuck count: 16"
The two follow up posts are similar

Vote Moodycould

I don't see how we don't vote for either Moodycloud today. Him surviving both days is a fucking joke because of the out of fucking nowhere votes to save him. There is no fucking way that he isn't some sort of mafia power role. It fucking fits with everything.

If Texas and Moody are scum, it would make sense that Texas would want to be cleared as town with a fake public inspect because he was in on Moody surviving. It might have given him the balls to try and save moody on a last ditch Day 2 Lynch, because he thought he and his scum buddies wanted to throw Lightwolf's name under the bus as a scum to take the heat off of what he did.

The snag is that IF lightwolf was omniguard, and there is a lot more fucking evidence to think that he was than wasn't, that massively fucks up the plan and puts Texas in a desperation mode to full claim.

This shit all fits into place to me and is pretty fucking neat. And moody fucking saying that he didn't and then did target Texas is fucking nuts. Maybe Moody is the fucking persuader and used his role on Texas to give Texas more town cred? And he tried to fucking cover that up and realized it was a bad move to lie about targeting him and made up that it somehow failed. THE BIG HOLE IN THIS STORY IS HOW DID THE FUCKING PERSUADE HIT TEXAS WHEN MOODYCLOUD'S HIT DIDN'T?
Both of their stories aren't fucking adding up at all, and Moody has been protected twice from death by Texas and his shit doesn't add up at all. A moody scum flip would give us a clear shot at Texas the next day and would give us fucking answers about the damned "public inspect" that's being put into question.

As for an all claim, I feel that we need to hold off with that until AFTER a Moody lynch. The reason is that if moody flips scum and I'd bet my ass he does, then Texas is going down with him. Public claiming NOW when I feel we have a sight on two strong lynches is pretty ridiculous and gives a lot of power to the scum. But I guess at this point, scum has a lot of fucking targets they would want to hit anyways.
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This post was the one that triggered off my scumdar

What the fuck just happened? We skipped an entire night cycle?

Assuming the very censored role PM was Pancakes?
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Why ask these questions? These are things that are obvious by reading the update
Why are you upset? Skipping a night kill and confirming Asek's role as well as all but confirming Martin as town is hugely beneficial
Why are you aggressively confused rather than looking to figure out your next steps?


I don't think this pushes him above the others mentioned in my post in terms of scumminess but it is setting off pretty big flags for me
 
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