On chance, banning moves and the Garchomp problem

[Tleilax]

With all this talk of what bad players would do with DT and OHKO, people seem to not be considering what GOOD players will do with them. Good players aren't going to spam OHKO attacks in the face of a stronger opponent. They will bring in their OHKO Pokemon where it will force a switch and then use the free turn to attempt a OHKO. 30% chance of success is not bad odds. It's a risk-free way to potentially bring down someone's Pokemon without ANY prediction.

For example, say a Milotic is switched in on an Infernape. The Infernape user switches to Lapras to absorb Surf. Milotic can't do anything to Lapras, so the only real option is to switch out. This gives them a free chance to Sheer Cold. No risk whatsoever. They have a chance to take out whatever you switch in, without having to worry about prediction. If it fails, oh well. You can just switch like normal, and bing it in again later.

With DT, I point out Umbereon as a good candidate. With Wish or Moonlight it can keep itself healthy while it DTs, and then it can Wish pass to, say, Yachechomp. HAVE FUN. And this is just a single option. Sure, you can set up against it, but whether it actually pays off will be totally up to luck. As a competitive community, we should do what we can to reduce luck and ensure the better player wins as often as possible, rather than the RNG.

 

[Syberia]

With all this talk of what bad players would do with DT and OHKO, people seem to not be considering what GOOD players will do with them. Good players aren't going to spam OHKO attacks in the face of a stronger opponent. They will bring in their OHKO Pokemon where it will force a switch and then use the free turn to attempt a OHKO. 30% chance of success is not bad odds. It's a risk-free way to potentially bring down someone's Pokemon without ANY prediction.

For example, say a Milotic is switched in on an Infernape. The Infernape user switches to Lapras to absorb Surf. Milotic can't do anything to Lapras, so the only real option is to switch out. This gives them a free chance to Sheer Cold. No risk whatsoever. They have a chance to take out whatever you switch in, without having to worry about prediction. If it fails, oh well. You can just switch like normal, and bing it in again later.

The thing is, a good player and a bad player can pull off the same series of moves just as easily, because all it requires is a knowledge of type advantages, and a move with a 30% chance to kill the incoming pokemon no matter what it is (pokemon with Sturdy all lose to Lapras quite easily 1 on 1).

 

[Taylor]

With all this talk of what bad players would do with DT and OHKO, people seem to not be considering what GOOD players will do with them. Good players aren't going to spam OHKO attacks in the face of a stronger opponent. They will bring in their OHKO Pokemon where it will force a switch and then use the free turn to attempt a OHKO. 30% chance of success is not bad odds. It's a risk-free way to potentially bring down someone's Pokemon without ANY prediction.

Still, the fact remains that, whether you are a good or a bad player, you should still be able to execute this play-by-play scenario. You brought up this valid point about perhaps we will all progress and benefit from the release of OHKO moves and evasion and that the balance will remain the same but with more diversity, though you simply suggested a scenario what I feel even the lower-tiered players are capable of actioning out in a match.

 

[Syberia]

Well in such a situation, I'd argue that spamming Sheer Cold (unless you know your opponent is carrying a Magnezone, which is the only Sturdy pokemon that can threaten Lapras/Suicune/Articuno 1-on-1, and that it has foregone Magnet Pull for Sturdy) is the "best" move that could be made in such a situation, for a good player or a bad player alike. There's simply no better option than giving yourself a 30% chance to take out one of your opponent's pokemon with no risk to yourself. So not only do OHKOs give a bad player a better chance to win over a good player, but they can also remove the skill in matchups between good players.

 

[overlord]

whats next are we going to start banning critical hits too? Thats based on luck. i completely agree with Ultimo. You cant claim to be "fair" without luck. i mean for every time the enemy gets lucky theres always a chance that you will too. what is the point in playing some boring drab game based only on mathematical calculatons? It takes all of the exciting twists out of a game to ban Luck. Furthermore, who cares if a less skilled player beats you ONCE? its not the end of teh world if you lose at pokemon! If you are truly skilled you will know that you cant win all of the time at everything. Lets compare it to any sport in the world. there's always the chance that someone will make a game winning half court shot or a miracle free kick. if there was no luck in sports who would want to watch? everyone would know the winner before the game started. We need to stop trying to make this a "perfect" game and allow for some chance.

 

[EeveeTrainer]

In terms of banning Critical Hits, I wish we could explore tweaking the mechanics so that Critical Hits only occur when there are stat modifiers present so as to prevent really drawn out matches with defensive stat-ups... It makes sense, too, since the purpose of a Critical Hit is to "cut through" those stats and "hit the weak spot" of an opponent. It's just annoying when they happen at random points in the battle unnecessarily.

 

[overlord]

i was joking banning crit hits is a terrible idea and it would butcher the game

 

[jrrrrrrr]

I've always been under the impression that luck is inherently good...but only in small quantities. Obviously things like four Hypnosis misses in a row or a 1-turn sleep suck, but overall they help the game. Pokemon is a game of statistical management and controlling probability. Most of the skill involved in pokemon comes from "prediction"- nothing more than using the estimated probabilities found in what the user perceives to be the best-case scenario to decide your move.

Now, combine that with the idea of weighing risk and reward. When you are attacking your opponent, you are putting yourself at risk. You could either miss your opponent, have them go to a counter, or not KO them and have them do damage to you in return. Since you are undeniably putting yourself at risk by attacking, there needs to be some kind of reward mixed in there somewhere. Whether you think a 6.25% chance of a crit is too much of a reward, thats a different debate. The point is that there needs to be a reward for the player present when they expose themselves to risk.

Now when you combine those two things, needing a rewarding scenario for your probability management, it seems to make sense that "hax" should be part of the game. It provides variety in the game and prevents defensive boosters like CPJirachi from dominating. The argument of "hax lets bad players beat good players" is kind of irrelevant because it also lets good players beat good players. If a "bad player" is in a position where ONE MOVE will win them the game, they are obviously doing something right to begin with. Obviously in an environment like the one that shoddy provides it will seem like there are more hax, but as people have said they are just as likely to happen for you. We just tend to notice the ones that go against us more.

 

[Syberia]

Yes, OHKOs can allow good players to beat bad players just as it can allow bad players to beat good players. However, the difference is that OHKOs leave the result entirely up to chance, while prediction and other factors leave it up to skill.

Using OHKOs is not comparable to a situation where "one move" can win them the game. Nowhere else do we have a pretty much risk-free way for certain otherwise-defensive pokemon to get a kill, no matter what is switched into them.

 

[jrrrrrrr]

That is why I brought up the idea of risk vs. reward, Syberia. I was talking specifically about critical hits and moves missing, but the argument applies to OHKO moves as well. We are trying to promote a competitive metagame and since OHKO moves are clearly unbalanced in the risk/reward department (a position that I have advocated here), they do not have a place in the game. When I mentioned "if you think x is too much of a reward, that is a different debate", that is what I was getting at. Luck as a reward isn't a bad thing, but when it becomes too much of a factor then I agree that something should be done.

 

[Arcaseven]

Just a note;

People seem to be forgetting moves like Roar, Whirlwind, and Haze can completely destroy DT. You keep trying to set up for a 6 DT YacheChomp? Good for you. I switch in my Skarmory and send you spinning before you can even Pass. Not only that, Roar and Whirlwind are decent moves in and of themselves.

 

[sasami]

Just a note;

People seem to be forgetting moves like Roar, Whirlwind, and Haze can completely destroy DT. You keep trying to set up for a 6 DT YacheChomp? Good for you. I switch in my Skarmory and send you spinning. Not only that, Roar and Whirlwind are decent moves in and of themselves.

Roar and Whirlwind are affected by Double Team, though, so they can miss.

 

[jrrrrrrr]

Just a note;

People seem to be forgetting moves like Roar, Whirlwind, and Haze can completely destroy DT. You keep trying to set up for a 6 DT YacheChomp? Good for you. I switch in my Skarmory and send you spinning before you can even Pass. Not only that, Roar and Whirlwind are decent moves in and of themselves.

The best Evasion users have blatantly obvious ways of dealing with phazing. Believe me, people have thought of this one already. Umbreon has Taunt, Zapdos is Zapdos and owns every single phazer in the game, Garchomp could just SD instead and 2HKO anything you throw at it, etc etc. Go ahead and send in your Skarmory or Suicune to phaze my DT Zapdos or Umbreon, I would love to sweep you with that.

And on top of all of that, as the poster above me just noted, Roar and Whirlwind are both affected by Evasion boosting moves, so it looks like your "counter" just got even less reliable. You can't just look at a move when deciding how to counter it, you have to look at the whole picture. The moves Roar and WW can beat DT, unfortunately the users of Roar and Whirlwind do not beat the pokemon that use DT and that is the problem.

 

[swordmaster789]

actually, the odds are 9%. which, is just one percent less than getting a burn, freeze, or paralysis with FT, IB, or TB respectively. but, which scenario is more preferable?. 10% chance to either burn, freeze, or paralyze an opponent, or 9% chance to OHKO two of your opponents pokemon. personally , id take the one where i take out 1/3 of the opponnents team.

True that if it does hit, it's disastrous for the opposition, but remember that those chances that you exemplified are simply secondary side-effects. While you have a chance of burning, freezing, or paralyzing as opposed to KOing the opponent, realize that those attacks do damage as well. Even if they don't burn or freeze, they did something, while OHKO attacks that miss do absolutely nothing. If anything, I'd consider myself lucky if I face a OHKO abuser, since the odds would be on my side.

The best Evasion users have blatantly obvious ways of dealing with phazing. Believe me, people have thought of this one already. Umbreon has Taunt, Zapdos is Zapdos and owns every single phazer in the game, Garchomp could just SD instead and 2HKO anything you throw at it, etc etc. Go ahead and send in your Skarmory or Suicune to phaze my DT Zapdos or Umbreon, I would love to sweep you with that.

And on top of all of that, as the poster above me just noted, Roar and Whirlwind are both affected by Evasion boosting moves, so it looks like your "counter" just got even less reliable. You can't just look at a move when deciding how to counter it, you have to look at the whole picture. The moves Roar and WW can beat DT, unfortunately the users of Roar and Whirlwind do not beat the pokemon that use DT and that is the problem.

Well, there are still many other phazing moves out there, that may be used more if Double Team was unbanned. For example, ghost Curse. Mismagius with curse could force Umbreon or Zapdos to switch, and it ruins their baton passing capabilities too. (it does get passed, right?) Perish Song is also a sure-fire way; Perish Song marowak (lol) counters that double team Zapdos easily.

So we should make the game worse for everyone because having stuff like DT makes a certain set that would be completely useless without DT in the game useful?

May I ask why we fucking care that Sturdy is a useless ability in the current metagame?"

How does the viability of Sturdy, in and of itself, make the OU metagame better?

Serioulsly, let's just use BT rules. Happy now?

Double team or OHKO is not necessarily making the game worse. It just changes it, and I honestly don't see any negative besides having another thing to consider in team building or battling... Moves like Aeriel Ace or even Aura Sphere exist for a reason, Double Team Umbreon doesn't stand a chance against a lucario aura sphere. The viability of Study doesn't make the OU metagame better, but without moves like double team or OHKO, the metagame remains farther from the cart.

Of course, maybe if I'm a smart player, I wait till I've gotten rid of your DT counter and then set up, knowing that unlike many other strats, you really can't stop it once your designated counter is gone.

What can't you say that about? Isn't that the whole point of the game, to eliminate counters, so you can get a pokemon in?

 

[Syberia]

True that if it does hit, it's disastrous for the opposition, but remember that those chances that you exemplified are simply secondary side-effects. While you have a chance of burning, freezing, or paralyzing as opposed to KOing the opponent, realize that those attacks do damage as well. Even if they don't burn or freeze, they did something, while OHKO attacks that miss do absolutely nothing. If anything, I'd consider myself lucky if I face a OHKO abuser, since the odds would be on my side.

"The odds would be on my side." You even admit that OHKOs are entirely luck-based. The difference between, say, Flamethrower or Ice Beam and OHKOs is that, for the former, their primary effect is to do damage. Sure, they have secondary effects that are luck-based, and it's annoying when they happen to you, but the purpose of the move is not to burn or freeze the opponent, it's to deal damage. The same cannot be said for the OHKO moves, as the entire purpose for the move's existence is luck-based.

Well, there are still many other phazing moves out there, that may be used more if Double Team was unbanned. For example, ghost Curse. Mismagius with curse could force Umbreon or Zapdos to switch, and it ruins their baton passing capabilities too. (it does get passed, right?) Perish Song is also a sure-fire way; Perish Song marowak (lol) counters that double team Zapdos easily.

Mismagius must sacrifice half her health just to force the DT user to switch out, potentially taking a Dark Pulse or Thunderbolt in the process. Hardly a reliable "counter," especially if Ghost-type Curse is effected by evasion modifiers (is it?). Perish Song Marowak is a horrible counter to Zapdos, since it has HP Ice. Unless you want to invest max HP and Sp. Def on a pokemon whose primary role is offensive.

Double team or OHKO is not necessarily making the game worse. It just changes it, and I honestly don't see any negative besides having another thing to consider in team building or battling... Moves like Aeriel Ace or even Aura Sphere exist for a reason, Double Team Umbreon doesn't stand a chance against a lucario aura sphere. The viability of Study doesn't make the OU metagame better, but without moves like double team or OHKO, the metagame remains farther from the cart.

Lucario with Aura Sphere may very well be able to counter DT Umbreon, but what if it's Celebi or Zapdos that decides it wants to pass DT instead? Aerial Ace is a joke of a move, it can't reliably kill anything with any degree of bulk, which are the pokemon that will primarily be using DT.

 

[swordmaster789]

"The odds would be on my side." You even admit that OHKOs are entirely luck-based. The difference between, say, Flamethrower or Ice Beam and OHKOs is that, for the former, their primary effect is to do damage. Sure, they have secondary effects that are luck-based, and it's annoying when they happen to you, but the purpose of the move is not to burn or freeze the opponent, it's to deal damage. The same cannot be said for the OHKO moves, as the entire purpose for the move's existence is luck-based.

- That is what I was trying to say. :P The person who I was quoting compared the 9% chance of KOing ot the 10% chance of burn, freeze, or paralyzing, and how the KOing is much more preferred then burning or freezing. I was simply saying that since OHKO moves don't even do a single effect if they miss, and at least the other moves do damage, OHKO moves are hardly useful in most situations anyway. They are luck based, I admit, but they offer hardly any advantage to the user.


Mismagius must sacrifice half her health just to force the DT user to switch out, potentially taking a Dark Pulse or Thunderbolt in the process. Hardly a reliable "counter," especially if Ghost-type Curse is effected by evasion modifiers (is it?). Perish Song Marowak is a horrible counter to Zapdos, since it has HP Ice. Unless you want to invest max HP and Sp. Def on a pokemon whose primary role is offensive.

-Mismagius has amazing Sp. def, 105, right? At the very least, Zapdos shouldn't give more than 50% damage. Then, Zapdos is bound to switch, right? Pain split, and you've done some damage, and restored your Mismagius. And Zapdos has been phazed! :P And ok, maybe Perish Song marowak's not that good, but I was simply trying to throw in Perish Song itself as a viable pseudo-phazing move. Oh, wait, Mismagius learns Perish song too...

Lucario with Aura Sphere may very well be able to counter DT Umbreon, but what if it's Celebi or Zapdos that decides it wants to pass DT instead? Aerial Ace is a joke of a move, it can't reliably kill anything with any degree of bulk, which are the pokemon that will primarily be using DT.

- Perish song, cough. Butterfree destroys celebi. xD

 

[Syberia]

So you're going to have to run Mismagius, Butterfree, and Lucario to counter the possibility that your opponent might be running Double Team, and because if they are running Double Team [X] and you only brought a counter to Double Team [Y], you're probably fucked. Definition of overcentralization, no?

 

[swordmaster789]

So you're going to have to run Mismagius, Butterfree, and Lucario to counter the possibility that your opponent might be running Double Team, and because if they are running Double Team [X] and you only brought a counter to Double Team [Y], you're probably fucked. Definition of overcentralization, no?

Well, these pokemon can do other things than countering double team pokes with their movesets. Mismagius can pseudo-haze things in general with perish song, and butterfree still double-powders well. I'm just saying that if people are truly afraid of hax from double team, they can find ways to counter it. If that 25% decrease in accuracy after one double team is off-putting, there are options.

 

[yayece]

So you're going to have to run Mismagius, Butterfree, and Lucario to counter the possibility that your opponent might be running Double Team, and because if they are running Double Team [X] and you only brought a counter to Double Team [Y], you're probably fucked. Definition of overcentralization, no?

I'm sure you can use your creativity to figure out something clever. I kind of doubt Mismagius, Butterfree and Lucario are the only options.

 

[jrrrrrrr]

Well, these pokemon can do other things than countering double team pokes with their movesets. Mismagius can pseudo-haze things in general with perish song, and butterfree still double-powders well. I'm just saying that if people are truly afraid of hax from double team, they can find ways to counter it. If that 25% decrease in accuracy after one double team is off-putting, there are options.

You are missing Syberia's point. There is no reasonable way to counter the common DTers. DT Zapdos, DT Umbreon, etc are essentially guaranteed to get at least one boost in under common battle situations, and they can beat pretty much all of the supposed counters to DT with Taunt/STAB Thunderbolt etc to boot.

D/P OU is a metagame where countering everything with a team of 6 is already impossible to do. If you want to add countering luck into the equation, the game would simply be too much and it would be way too overwhelming to actually be enjoyable. Sure you can find some ways to counter DT, but they are extremely unreliable and only serve to open gaping holes in your team so that something else can come in and sweep you. If you want to add Heracross to help beat DT Umbreon, you just opened a hole for Salamence and Gyarados. The same applies for other things, I know, but with DT the holes created are glaringly obvious and not as simple to patch as you seem to be implying.

 

[Glen ^^]

How there's no risk in using OHKO moves? Isn't a free switch in to your opponent an incredibly high risk, in a metagame so fast paced?

 

[Syberia]

Well when we consider the primary users of OHKO moves will probably be Lapras and Articuno, the question becomes a free switch to what? A switch isn't exactly free when the incoming pokemon risks a 30% chance of being killed on the spot, and there's nothing you can do about it. And don't say a free switch to a sturdy pokemon, because all except Magnezone fall to Lapras, and all except Magnezone and Forretress lose to Articuno (I wonder if HP Fire wouldn't have its merits on an OHKO set, for that reason?)

 

[Glen ^^]

Both can't switch in easily either, taking heavy damage from SR and easily exploitable weakness.
The only real Sheer Cold user that could be problematic is Walrein, since he forces switches and live forever.

 

[Syberia]

Because everyone really wants to sit there and stall for 32 turns against Walrein, who not only doesn't die, but now can sit there and spam Sheer Cold behind its substitutes?

Lapras can switch in fine, with Water Absorb and all. Hell, Articuno can lead and get an OHKO right off the bat.

 

[RaikouLover]

OMG if double team and OHKOs were allowed I would quit pokemon. Go play Pokemon Stadium or Battle Revolution... or better yet - BT.

No for the intelligent argument... I agree with Jrrrrrr and Syberia 100%. Think of the prospect... of switching your counter into immediate death, regardless of how good of a counter it is. Lets take Pinsir for example- the inferior Hearcross. Pinsir is walled and countered 100% by Gliscor. Now suppose.... you switch your Gliscor into Guillotine. Cool it misses the first time. And the second time. The third time, it hits and Gliscor is gone. DEAD. Your counter is eliminated by my OHKO move. In that particular scenario.... you can't even call that "hax" because statistically speaking, it should happen about 1 out of 3 times. Think of how many times you would be willing to switch Gliscor into that Pinsir... as many as possible! You can do it all day.. With that OHKO move, Gliscor may not be touched, or may be crushed into oblivion the first time. Now lets look at Lapras.... Horn Drill, Sheer Cold, Rest, Sleep Talk... yikes... I know those sets were "staple" in GSC... I'm not familar with the breeding issue on that, but seriously -- where is the skill / prediction in that? As for Articuno... you forget that thing has Mind Reader. I mind reader your switch... if you can't KO me, you die. If you switch... you have a 30% chance of dying. Thats just horrible for the game IMO. Broken or not...