PokeStats: Power and Accuracy in OU

[Yellow13]

Power or Accuracy?

The worlds of competitive Pokemon battling and relaxed casual play, though extremely different, have a few common points that allow each player to formulate their own opinion on a subject. All 8-year-olds with a game boy (like me, when I was 8) know that Thunder, though it is more powerful, is less reliable than thunderbolt (Yes, yes, weather effects, so on and so forth). Here I try to examine the uses of more powerful, but more risky moves, as well as their psychological effects on the opponent.

Bland Mathematics

Take the Thunder(bolt) duo. Thunder has an accuracy of 70, but a power of 120. Thunderbolt has a power of 95, but accuracy of 100. Because of the Evasion clause that is normally used in OU battles, it is very uncommon for moves with 100 accuracy to miss. Multiplying the total power of the move by the accuracy gives us the total damage the move will inflict on average over 100 turns.
Thunder: 70 x 120 =8400, Thunderbolt: 100 x 95 =9500
This doesn’t look so bad. So Thunder does an average of 84 damage per turn, plus rain accuracy boosts and paralysis potential. Thunderbolt, on the other hand, has an average of 95 damage per turn (duh) and slightly less paralysis effects. Ice Beam and Blizzard have similar results. This can partially explain why Thunderbolt is much more common than Thunder, except on rain teams.

That is not all. It is easier to think about Thunder’s potential a different way. Instead of 84 damage per turn, Thunder inflicts 120 damage seven out of 10 turns. This sounds a lot worse than 84 damage per turn. For every seven turns of huge damage and KO’d Pokemon, your Pokemon just sits around for 30 and does nothing. One cannot forget that even though Thunder increases its accuracy to 100 in rain, it decreases to 50 in sun.

Together, all this math proves one thing. That different situations warrant different approaches to attack. Thus, to examine the situations.

A Sweep

You are in the middle of a huge sweep. You cannot believe that this is happening. Your (insert generic sweeper) is on a role (pun intended). +2 SpAtk, +1 Spd, plenty of HP. You opponent sends out a (insert counter to your sweeper) that you can easily KO with Focus Blast. And Focus Blast misses. You opponent uses (Insert devastating move) that would never have gotten off the ground had your Focus Blast actually hit the target.

Such is one of the ways that my sweeps have been stopped. I don’t know if anyone else feels the pure frustration of a sweep getting stopped in its tracks because of Fire Blast, Focus Blast, Hurricane, or other moves. Even Draco Meteor, to some extent, has a “low” accuracy of only 90. Because of the importance that the opponent’s Pokemon never mount a counterattack, I conclude that for sweepers, higher accuracy is important. Because if your move has 80 accuracy, then eight out of every ten sweeps in which you use it could be stopped dead.

A survey, taken by the author, finds that the majority of respondents hold that 50% or more of their moves in an OU match must not miss for the match to continue in their favor. It a move like Fire Blast or Focus Blast has low accuracy, then it is highly possible that one miss could doom a match to defeat!

Surprise!

Sometimes a higher powered move is used as a surprise tactic. The ancient Chinese Warrior-Philosopher Sun-Tzu noted again and again the advantages of using surprise to one’s advantage.
For example, on a set that usually uses Ice Beam, it may be worth the risk in normal situations to exchange Ice Beam for Blizzard to get an extra few damage. This throws all of established strategical calculations out of the window (like the “My ______ can take an _____ from a _____ with max Atk and still have 54% of its HP left”.), and if you are practiced in the use of high-powered moves, you gain the upper hand. Again, this does not mean that every Ice Beam or Thunderbolt should become a Thunder or Blizzard; simply, the effects of the higher powered moves in OU, once in a blue moon, may be used as a surprise tactic.

Playing… with your MIND!

More powerful than the simple damage possibilities or sweep-stopping capabilities is the psychological effects of a more powerful move.

Many a battler has thought, “Hmmm. I bet I could survive one of those Thunderbolts when I switch in.” However, from the author’s personal experience, a Pokemon that uses Thunder, and seems to hit constantly, is more intimidating (the Author’s Atk fell!) than a lesser move. The author cannot speak for other battlers, but has a gut feeling that this is not a Pokemon to be trifled with.

Come on! I know statistics! Each move is still an independent probability chance! There is no such thing as a “run” of luck, or a “rut” of constant misses! He will hit eventually…. Right?
Probability tells us that there is no such thing as “runs”. That is true. However, in OU battles, it is perfectly possible to miss ten times in a row, and then hit twenty times in a row, while your opponent scratches his head and thinks “Is the probability generator working?” Thus, high powered moves mess with the battler’s minds in more ways than one.

Thus I ask, what are other operations in OU that warrant higher powered moves? I hope to learn some about all this.

By Yellow 13

 

[CrackinSkulls]

this is actually an interesting article and with some work would fit in nicely in an article of the smog. I generally go by the principle that "hit and run" 'mons carry high risk/reward moves such as fire-blast over flamethrower. Like you have mentioned i tend to go for more reliable moves on my sweepers and set-ups with some minor exceptions such as scrafty because drain punch is hilariously weak. I also go with high-powered moves on my bulky offensive pivots like heatran. most sets advise lava plume over fire blast however i always go with fire blast. the same for deoxys-s where i use psycho boost over psychic/shock and roserade where i much prefer using leaf storm. what i am trying to say is that the high risk/ reward moves go to pokemon that have the least to lose due to there bulk or similar things. On my scarfers and specs users i generally carry both if i can to give me the option depending on the situation. finally for my sweepers i always go for reliable options because they are to valuable to put a 75% or coin toss chance on. i believe a lot of it is simply a situational snap decision on the spot. anyway i hope i could contribute and good luck. also just nitpicking the text font should be change

 

[Yellow13]

Thank you for your advice. Do you really think this is Smog level? Because I seriously doubt they would take any of my work. I am but a simple Smogonite, hoping to provoke discussion on aspects of the metagame. Thank you for the compliment. I also prefer more accurate moves.

 

[Ketsuban]

Did you have to use giant bold font?

My first experience with the competitive aspect of Pokémon battling was RJones' "strategy guide" covering Gen I and Gen II (though I think it's listed under Pokémon Red and Blue) on GameFAQs, which discusses this a bit. At the time the concensus was reasonably clear - accuracy won, because there was no real advantage to sacrificing it for more damage (you didn't hit anything more decisively, you just missed more).

It seems to me like the general tendency towards bulkier bulks as time goes on has resulted in needing the extra power and often being willing to sacrifice accuracy to get it. With things like the Drizzle/Swift Swim combo ban, that results in using tools like weather to make threats more likely to connect - nobody would use Solarbeam without sun, and Thunder/Hurricane are shaky at best in the absence of rain.

It'd be interesting to hear from people who've played Clear Skies-like tiers to know if Ice Beam and Thunderbolt return to being preferred over Thunder and Blizzard in those metagames in the absence of weathers which can maximise their benefit.

 

[Ningildo]

I really don't see the point of this, as everyone who has played competitive Pokemon for a few weeks knows the advantage/disadvantage of both sides. Even though you seem to want to look into other, perhaps unknown discussion topics having to do with Power (such as Power vs Utility: poster 1: I use Hydro Pump on Jellicent to KO threat X. poster 2: Why give up Scald's utility just for more power? You'd be able to take on the other threats as well, albeit having to tank a (weak) hit. poster 1: So being able to kill the threats outright instead of crippling them is bad?), this thread is poking a stick at a dead thing; it's not going to change a thing.

I might just be tired of pointless debates, though, so take this however you want.

Edit: the weather version is basically the same as the old debate; Do I use a insanely powerful move without any drawbacks in MY weather? Or do I use the same one I use in no weather to makes sure opposing weather doesn't screw me over? Oh, and about Clear Skies, it's deserted. You'll find a battle there in, what, an hour? Can't really say if you'll find someone for an opinion...

 

[Yellow13]

I was trying to focus the opinion debate on the subject into one single thread, for battlers (such as myself) who need help in this area. I presented my own opinion, and there is ambiguity over the actual truth of the matter. Debate leads to knowledge.

 

[Ningildo]

So what you're saying is that you want to know the general opinion?
Look, it's impossible for that because both sides are about equal. And even if there would come a general opinion, you'd find quite a bit of people disagreeing with it. It boils down to what you want, prefer etc. It's hard to have a opinion we all mostly agree with if we (possibly) prefer the other one. And how would debate over a dead beat topic provide knowledge? And by knowledge, I mean new information.

 

[Yellow13]

Dead? If there is debate, I hardly call the topic dead. And did the article not mention that there is personal choice involved? I was calling up if there are there are other reasons to use powerful moves besides personal choice and the reasons I mentioned.

 

[Camisado]

I will say that 4th and especially 5th gen grew increasingly less enjoyable for me. as it became obligatory to run Stone Edge and Focus Blast. Rock Slide vs Stone Edge is bad enough, but to have to pick between Focus Blast and HP Fighting?

The fact that a lot of 5th gen characters have to rely on low accuracy/high power moves is depressing. And it's something that the entire meta will shift around because if we're both running Fire Blast, we have an equal chance of getting hax'd, and I think that makes it morally more sound.

If you think that the accuracy vs. power argument has been 50/50 in competitive Pokemon for the last two years, you are sadly, sadly mistaken.

 

[ss234]

I would gladly use Aura Sphere over Focus Blast any day-the fact that it can change a game completely is probably one of the reasons people tend not to run Reuniclus(I'm not saying it's the only one though-Tyranitar and Scizor say hi). It's the frustration that Fire Blast keeps missing on my Heatran that I run Flamethrower instead-and I'm sure that no one runs Thunder on non-rain teams-or use Tornadus outside of rain. In fact, how many Tornadus' do you see outside of rain? I suspect it might be nil. The only way how he benefits from rain of course is Hurricane's accuracy-in fact, rain kind of decreases his usefulness because of Heat Wave.

The fact is this-if Gengar or Reuniclus got Aura Sphere, then they would always use it. Why, because then you can always 2HKO Tar or Heatran or whatever, and have two very accurate moves. People hate having to use Focus Blast-that's why it's called Focus Miss. Same with Stone Edge.

Obviously though, this doesn't always apply. Take Draco Meteor for example. It has lower accuracy than Dragon Pulse, and Dragon Pulse is still pretty strong. But people will always use Drac Meteor because it is much, much stronger, and helps them break through their standard counters possibly. I suppose people will generally accept 90 accuracy, or even 85 or 80-but anything below is pretty unworth it.

 

[Princess Bubblegum]

I find it rather interesting how standard low accuracy attacks, still fall into a statistical power norm where they are better than the other option, while moves that don't aren't used. For example, fire blast:

120 power * .85 = 102 > flamethrower 95

Its the same story for a lot of our moves:
focus blast 120 * .7 = 84 > HP fighting or other base 80 and lower coverage moves
Megahorn 120 * .85 = 102 > 80 X-scissor
(same story for meteor mash, powerwhip, and seed flare)
Hydropump 120 * .8 = 96 > surf 95
Stone edge 100 * .8 = 80 > rock slide 75 * .9 = 67.5
Gunk shot 120 * .7 = 84 > poison job 80

It also explains why we generally don't use some moves:
Blizzard 120 power * .7 = 84 < 95 ice beam
Thunder 120 power * .7 = 84 < 95 thunderbolt
Mega kick 120 power * .75 = 90 < return 102

Just some food for thought.

 

[TheStarRapper]

I enjoyed the section on different categories of pokemon (ex: sweepers) as relating to a specific type of move they should use to be successful. I think that an interesting way to elaborate on this topic would be to provide specific examples of move trade offs for each (or at least some) of the top 50 in ou. Some Mons have more obvious choices (ie gengar simply cannot rely on hidden power fighting over focus blast), but for Mons like volcarona, the trade off between flamethrower/fiery dance/ fireblast may not be as clear cut. Nice topic.

 

[Ningildo]

Dead? If there is debate, I hardly call the topic dead. And did the article not mention that there is personal choice involved? I was calling up if there are there are other reasons to use powerful moves besides personal choice and the reasons I mentioned.

Perhaps I should explain it. Dead beat as in over used(somewhat ironic, I know).

Personal choice is influenced by all sorts reasons, but it is always your choice. One prefers power ability to net key KO's and says it's better to miss 15% of the time then miss out on KO's 100% of the time, while the other prefers reliability in order hit all the time and says it's better to do some damage then none at all. These reasons, among others, appeal to you and thus you make your choice. So, no there isn't any other reason to pick.Other then picking the one you prefer that is.

Edit @ above: Few pokemon, if any, have the same dilemma as Volcarona, so mentioning that is kind of moot, though it's more of a question of Fiery Dance vs Fire Blast then anything else.

 

[420]

Sometimes power is better. Example: you want to KO a specific mon. Thunderbolt does 45% and thunder does 54%, one 2HKO's while the other doesn't.

 

[Nyktos]

Sometimes power is better. Example: you want to KO a specific mon. Thunderbolt does 45% and thunder does 54%, one 2HKO's while the other doesn't.

But your chances of actually hitting two Thunders are less than even, so it's not really a guaranteed 2HKO. Meanwhile Thunderbolt guarantees the 3HKO whereas with Thunder you have a ~22% chance of failing even that.

 

[MCG93]

The author should also take note that the team also influences the choice of moves. For example, an offensive team can generally afford to pass up powerful moves for more accurate ones, because it is more likely to have multiple members that can handle particular threats in the metagame. Balanced teams, however, cannot say the same, because once the opponent's Keldeo reaches +3 with calm mind, you are going to wish your Celebi, your only counter to the monstrous pony, had Leaf Storm instead of Giga Drain (I'm not sure what the exact calcs for this situation would be, but I'm just trying to model an example here). That's why I feel that one should test one's team and spot out its weaknesses and strengths before choosing between power and accuracy, because one move is always more likely to net more wins than the other.

 

[New World Order]

One important thing to take note is "chance of KO". If Fire Blast has an 80% chance of OHKOing, and 85% accuracy, you have a 68% chance of scoring an OHKO. Flamethrower on the other hand might have a 0% chance of OHKOing. For a sweeper, you're trying to ensure the opponent doesn't have a chance of hitting, and missing that OHKO is just too important to sacrifice for accuracy, hence why most sweepers just use devastating high powered moves with decent accuracy (80%+). Walls on the other hand can afford to run low powered high accuracy moves since they're in no rush to score a KO and can slowly whittle down the opponent's health, healing as they go.

 

[Quilph]

The facts on the ground change a bit if we are discussing status moves. Though people love to complain about attacks like Focus Blast, Stone Edge, and Hydro Pump, I almost never see things like Will-o-Wisp, Sleep Powder, or Hypnosis get slammed. I guess the main reason is that users of such moves tend to exist solely to status the foe, but it's still remarkable how often people are okay with frequent misses in this area. Then again, I never really understood why anyone would use Sleep Powder, ever. The Pokemon that get it are better off proceeding with a stat-up move or just all out attacking than fooling around with a 75% accurate move. Yet it continues to see widespread use. Sleep appears unassailable. Hence the absolute adoration of Spore in every context it comes up.

 

[doughboy]

The facts on the ground change a bit if we are discussing status moves. Though people love to complain about attacks like Focus Blast, Stone Edge, and Hydro Pump, I almost never see things like Will-o-Wisp, Sleep Powder, or Hypnosis get slammed. I guess the main reason is that users of such moves tend to exist solely to status the foe, but it's still remarkable how often people are okay with frequent misses in this area. Then again, I never really understood why anyone would use Sleep Powder, ever. The Pokemon that get it are better off proceeding with a stat-up move or just all out attacking than fooling around with a 75% accurate move. Yet it continues to see widespread use. Sleep appears unassailable. Hence the absolute adoration of Spore in every context it comes up.

Usually the Pokemon who use status moves are quite bulky, i.e. walls. When you are that bulky and are able to take hits from a certain threat very well, you get multiple chances to fire off your status move. Status is also paired with recovery moves a lot so the status move user doesn't go down quite as easily. Compare using Will-o-Wisp on Jellicent and Sableye. Jellicent ussually doesn't mind if he misses because he has the bulk to take a hit to fire another one off. On the other hand, Sableye relies on Will-o-Wisp to take hits/do damage and if it misses the result could be devastating for it. Meanwhile most attackers generally have a chance or two to fire off an attack before they are killed.

On Sleep Powder: Sleep is such a powerful status in BW so it is worth it on some sweepers. In certain circumstances Sleep basically equals a KO.

 

[A Fhaol Bhig]

This reminds me of the Fiery Dance Vs. Fire Blast debate on Volcarona.

Once can potentially increase damage output over time, while the other has immediate power, but a chance to miss.

People have been arguing about those two since the day we found out its moveset.

 

[XcRunner]

Totally agreeing with what New World Order said. If you're going to be using something that is meant to KO threats, then a small chance of a OHKO is much better than no chance of a OHKO and a much higher chance of hitting. A great example is Lilligant: it's able to OHKO Tyranitar and Politoed with Leaf Storm, but not with Giga Drain, which shows how lower accuracy moves or ones with drawbacks are critical to a team's success. Taking out opposing weather starters in one move just shows how the high-risk/high-reward angle can have game changing effects.
How I look at these things is based around how long I want the pokemon in. If I want a boosting sweeper, then I go for higher accuracy. If I want to run a wallbreaker, higher power is what I'd go for. It all depends on the situation, but like with the Roserade example earlier, I don't keep it in long, so Leaf Storm is better than Giga Drain IMO.

 

[MCG93]

Totally agreeing with what New World Order said. If you're going to be using something that is meant to KO threats, then a small chance of a OHKO is much better than no chance of a OHKO and a much higher chance of hitting. A great example is Lilligant: it's able to OHKO Tyranitar and Politoed with Leaf Storm, but not with Giga Drain, which shows how lower accuracy moves or ones with drawbacks are critical to a team's success. Taking out opposing weather starters in one move just shows how the high-risk/high-reward angle can have game changing effects.
How I look at these things is based around how long I want the pokemon in. If I want a boosting sweeper, then I go for higher accuracy. If I want to run a wallbreaker, higher power is what I'd go for. It all depends on the situation, but like with the Roserade example earlier, I don't keep it in long, so Leaf Storm is better than Giga Drain IMO.

Lilligant example, you mean. Anyway, apart from the nitpick, I completely agree. Besides, you have to look at it from a defender's angle as well. If your opponent's sweeper has boosted to sky high levels and you only have one Pokemon who can take another hit, you'd want that Pokemon to be able to kill it right back. That's when you need all the power you can get.

 

[XcRunner]

Whoops I should have clarified. I meant Lilligant, but somebody else posted Roserade also earlier in the forum, and they both function the same way due to high special attacks and STAB Leaf Storm, so either one could work.

 

[doughboy]

I think Heatran using Fire Blast or Flamethrower is a much better example. Leaf Storm most likely isn't used not because of accuracy, but because of the Sp. Atk drop. Meanwhile with Heatran it is a pure power vs accuaracy choice.

TBH if a super-important-KO isn't accomplished by using the power move, I always elect to use the accuracy move. On my BW team, I used Fire Blast over Flamethrower because I though "why not it is accurate enough" and the power is nice. Then I lost a 1 vs 1 situation against a Breloom because I missed Fire Blast on the last turn of the game. As if fate tried to spite me, I lost again in a 1 vs 1 situation with Fire Blast on the last turn of the game (yes it was a different player). I was mad because of the RNG, but then I realized you are responsible for all hax that happens to you. When given the choice, you took that risk of using Fire Blast so you are responsible if it happens. That's why I try to build my teams to subjugate themselves less to that. Even running Surf on just one of your guys instead of Hpump on your offensive rain team helps.

Using lower accuracy moves isn't consistent either. Sorta of like why Stall teams run Shed Shell instead of Leftovers. Leftovers is extremely useful, but when there is that chance that Magnezone is going to be on the opposing team, you don't want to make yourself open to that loss every time. A good example of this is Hawaiian Air which only uses 1 move without 100% accuracy.

tl;dr if you don't open yourself up to hax, the game is more enjoyable, less ragey. Having fun is the most important thing ^^

 

[NoUserName]

One important thing to take note is "chance of KO" [..] Walls on the other hand can afford to run low powered high accuracy moves since they're in no rush to score a KO and can slowly whittle down the opponent's health, healing as they go.

I think the same, in fact, the chance of KO is very important. If these sweepers can't score the KO will be dead or almost, or crippled in most cases.

I was going to say the same. However, I disagree about your second part of your argumentation(the non-bolded text), walls generally have poor offensive power, for that, the difference, to name for example, Thunder and Thunderbolt will rarely be a game-changing. Another thing to take into consideration is, generally more potent moves have lower PP than weaker ones, in case of walls, they should preservate the PP for PP wars.