RBY OU - Patching 1/256 + Recoveries Misses

[power]

Not sure why monte carloing this was necessary

Scenario 1 has probability 27/41 (65.85%) the great player wins

Scenario 2 has probability 589/903 (65.23%), which is slightly less.

These are both relatively straightforward to compute as (.6*.9)/(.6*.9 + .4*.6 + .4*.1) and (.62*.95)/(.62*.95 + .38*.8 + .05*.2)

 

[Hipmonlee]

I do it that way cause I'm a developer not a mathematician, and writing scripts is really easy, whereas doing maths is hard.