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Won vs. Raish in two fun games! First game was tight until I managed to set up my Slowbro in peace, and after that things got out of hand. Game 2 was a luckfest for me but I also had team matchup on my side.
Okay since this is fairly controversial game, I feel compelled to discuss it to determine how much hax there was and how influential it was on the outcome (WARNING: slightly long)
First three turns involved a nice double switch on Steeljackal's part that resulted in a paralyzed Water Arceus. From then on, Jackal made an inexplicable play switching his LO Ho-Oh directly into a physically defensive Toxic Waterceus to start spamming Brave Bird. Since Ho-Oh was Steeljackal's win condition and had a good match-up vs. Donkey's team bc of its ability to smash Tyranitar with Earthquake, there was no reason to allow his Ho-Oh to get crippled with Poison that early on in the game. The odds of Donkey failing to get a Toxic off there were about 1/3 bc of the paralysis, so the odds of him getting haxed there were not THAT low. Still, jackal did not get punished for the early misplay.
Jackal killed TTar with Earthquake, which Donkey should have scouted for IMO with Lugia but EQ on LO Ho-Oh is by no means common. Donkey had Ferrothorn for Latias anyway so I understand wanting to set up SR there. From there, Steel played his Ho-Oh more carefully, spamming Sacred Fire when the opportunity presented itself. Eventually, Donkey attemped to switch Clefable into Heal Bell, thereby giving him an opportunity to remove paralysis from his Waterceus. Jackal made a nice play by doubling to Groudon, which is obviously massively threatening to Clef, but Donkey made a daring move to stay in and use Heal Bell anyway rather than continue to fall behind via a combination of Jackal's solid play and repeated Sacred Fire burns / Toxic hax. It paid off, and Donkey was able to get back into the game before Mega Kangaskhan was able to get some fortunate defense drops with Crunch. Donkey misplayed by sending in his cleric / wish passer on Kangaskhan expecting a coverage move, and wound up eating a Return. Return crit Clefable, but it would have been so badly wounded that offensive pressure likely would have made Clef useless the rest of the match anyway. Without the defense drops though, he doesn't make that switch in the first place...
Overall, Steeljackal made some good double switches and should have some success this SPL. Since Steeljackal did not have a cleric and Donkey had a solid answer for Latias and Skarmory / Groudon was nearly dead by the end of the match, I do feel the Toxic miss and Crunch drops were meaningful enough where it can be argued that they cost Donkey the game. Both players made one major misplay (allowing Ho-Oh to have a Toxic thrown at it and the Clefable switch on Kanga) and though Donkey's team walls Jackal's fairly easily under normal conditions, Stall has a tendency to get haxed and pressured. Jackal applied good pressure and haxed quite a bit, so the stall was broken.
Also a sidenote there was an unrevealed move on latias, which was possibly Healing Wish. If it were, that would further negate a lot of what was arguable hax.
Also the chance of getting at least 1 drop with crunch on both ferrothorn and lugia = (1-0.8^2)^2 ~= 13% which is lucky but not desperately suprising.
Okay since this is fairly controversial game, I feel compelled to discuss it to determine how much hax there was and how influential it was on the outcome (WARNING: slightly long)
First three turns involved a nice double switch on Steeljackal's part that resulted in a paralyzed Water Arceus. From then on, Jackal made an inexplicable play switching his LO Ho-Oh directly into a physically defensive Toxic Waterceus to start spamming Brave Bird. Since Ho-Oh was Steeljackal's win condition and had a good match-up vs. Donkey's team bc of its ability to smash Tyranitar with Earthquake, there was no reason to allow his Ho-Oh to get crippled with Poison that early on in the game. The odds of Donkey failing to get a Toxic off there were about 1/3 bc of the paralysis, so the odds of him getting haxed there were not THAT low. Still, jackal did not get punished for the early misplay.
Jackal killed TTar with Earthquake, which Donkey should have scouted for IMO with Lugia but EQ on LO Ho-Oh is by no means common. Donkey had Ferrothorn for Latias anyway so I understand wanting to set up SR there. From there, Steel played his Ho-Oh more carefully, spamming Sacred Fire when the opportunity presented itself. Eventually, Donkey attemped to switch Clefable into Heal Bell, thereby giving him an opportunity to remove paralysis from his Waterceus. Jackal made a nice play by doubling to Groudon, which is obviously massively threatening to Clef, but Donkey made a daring move to stay in and use Heal Bell anyway rather than continue to fall behind via a combination of Jackal's solid play and repeated Sacred Fire burns / Toxic hax. It paid off, and Donkey was able to get back into the game before Mega Kangaskhan was able to get some fortunate defense drops with Crunch. Donkey misplayed by sending in his cleric / wish passer on Kangaskhan expecting a coverage move, and wound up eating a Return. Return crit Clefable, but it would have been so badly wounded that offensive pressure likely would have made Clef useless the rest of the match anyway. Without the defense drops though, he doesn't make that switch in the first place...
Overall, Steeljackal made some good double switches and should have some success this SPL. Since Steeljackal did not have a cleric and Donkey had a solid answer for Latias and Skarmory / Groudon was nearly dead by the end of the match, I do feel the Toxic miss and Crunch drops were meaningful enough where it can be argued that they cost Donkey the game. Both players made one major misplay (allowing Ho-Oh to have a Toxic thrown at it and the Clefable switch on Kanga) and though Donkey's team walls Jackal's fairly easily under normal conditions, Stall has a tendency to get haxed and pressured. Jackal applied good pressure and haxed quite a bit, so the stall was broken.
Also a sidenote there was an unrevealed move on latias, which was possibly Healing Wish. If it were, that would further negate a lot of what was arguable hax.
Also the chance of getting at least 1 drop with crunch on both ferrothorn and lugia = (1-0.8^2)^2 ~= 13% which is lucky but not desperately suprising.