Suspect Metagame Analysis - Aug/Sep - Rough Draft.

Tangerine

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...considering the COMPLETE lack of interest, I'll write up a draft and let you guys pitch in on it, considering I hate it when I leave things I started unfinished =/

Basically this is going to be subjective based on MY observations. I'd like you guys to 1) input stats when we can, 2) check for any conflicting observation so we get a more objective picture. I will not be using stats for this specific piece.

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The month of August began with the opening of the Suspect-Free ladder - something that many users have been calling for ages. Thus, it is important to note the differences between the two ladders.

The first thing to note is that the Suspect Free ladder received a total of 28,088 matches - versus 160,531 that took place in standard. The second thing we see is that the list of OU in Suspect Free is smaller than Standard.

What happened? Wasn't the lack of Garchomp and Deoxys supposed to make the metagame less centralized? Why has OU shrunk?

It is most likely that the number of OU shrunk because of the fewer number of players that played in Suspect Free. Suspect received roughly 1/6th of the matches of Standard - and because every player in Suspect was likely to be a Smogon member - the number of Pokemon used was less varied than Standard. (This also explains the drop in Electivire - a Pokemon considered only for "noobs") It could also be the factor that one month is not enough to measure the full impact of the absence of two of the biggest presence in the metagame.

Garchomp dominated the charts of Standard, as expected, with Gengar, far far behind. This graph shows the effects of centralization well - with Garchomp gone, the rest of the OU pokemon suddenly became more viable. Indeed - people began to try new things. Steel types became a lot more popular, with one of the strongest STAB Earthquake users no longer around to keep them in check. The early days of Suspect was marked with a huge rise in usage of Steel Pokemon - such as Heatran Jirachi, and Magnezone. However, with the huge rise in usage of Heatran - the use of Jirachi diminished near the end of the month, despite CM Jirachi dominating the charts during the early days of the test.

Many pokemon began getting more attention, mostly because many players attempted to fill Garchomp's shoes. Mamoswine, with its STAB Earthquake, suddenly became MORE popular in Suspect than Standard (despite many people predicting that Ice Shard would be less useful) - likely due to the fact that it stops both Salamence and Dragonite, two dragons that rose to take Garchomp's place as a Dragon type sweeper. Salamence and Dragonite are both expected to Dragon Dance, although Salamence equipped with Choice Specs is making a comeback from obscurity. Speaking of STAB Ground attacks - it is not much surprise that Flygon was more popular.

In the meanwhile, the lack of Garchomp has hurt the presence of Weavile - a Pokemon that was commonly relied upon to revenge kill Garchomp. Cresselia, a Pokemon that was widely considered one of the best Pokemon to take on Garchomp, also dropped in usage.

Of course, this means Porygon 2 has gained popularity. No longer worried about trying to stop Garchomp, Porygon 2 can counter some of the biggest offensive threats comfortably - Salamence, Gyarados, Dragonite, and Heatran.

Life Orb Suicune seems to do well in this Suspect metagame - most teams simply not prepared to take it on after it gets a Calm Mind. Even Celebi has a chance to be shot down by an Ice Beam after SR damage after Suicune gets a Calm Mind. This is a threat that everyone should be looking out for - especially since it outspeeds many of the slower offensive threats and KOs them with ease, and Suicune is bulky enough to take a hit from many faster Pokemon.

Of course, Gengar is #1 in the charts, as expected as a Pokemon sitting comfortably as #2 in the Standard Ladder. With the Substitute/Hypnosis/Focus Blast (or Punch)/Shadow Ball set gaining popularity, one should think twice about switching in a Pokemon attempting to stop it. Lum berry Metagross seems to be popular considering it is one of the best Gengar counters the players have conceived as of yet.

Suicide Leads are still common - with Azelf still comfortably the #1 lead. The lead Tyranitar set has been popular in order to counteract Azelf - because this set can counter many of the most popular leads with ease. Of course, this leads us to the many Rain Dance teams that has been plaguing the metagame - usually leading with Zapdos or Electrode, these teams will try to sweep you with a combination of Kabutops, Ludicolo, and Kingdra with extreme haste.

This is of course the opposite of the direction that many people consider the game to be going - towards stall. The metagame is definitely less offensive with more room to breathe - although offensive teams are still viable. It is too early to call such an effect yet, as the metagame needs more time to evolve - something that needs to be observed with a more active eye.
 
Disclaimer: This post is probably all subjective based on what teams I decide to use.

I agree that Gengar is extremely common. Stall teams are not really common for some reason.

Those offensive Suicunes are also very effective, 296 might be a speed number to aim for on Pokemon that can reach it in the future (if people realise Suicune's potential). The same goes for offensive Celebi and Jirachi.

Heatran (scarfed) and Lucario (SD) are both extremely common too, any team that is unprepared for either will lose horribly!

Strangely enough when I don't play stall I have troubles facing Electivire. Garchomp's absence may have something to do with this, as well as the lack of the all-outspeeding Deoxys-S.

"Speed based" offensive teams have a lot of trouble with the Life Orb variant of Gyarados and lesser amounts of trouble with SD Lucario. The lack of Deoxys-S makes "speed based" teams more viable since there is nothing which outspeeds all of them (except Choice Scarf users).

The metagame seems to be taking some kind of a "specially orientated" shift from my experience (or maybe it is just that my physical defense orientated Stall team only has problems with special sweepers).

Special offensive teams are definitely more effective than physical offensive teams right now, so that will probably cause a rise in Blissey who will be able to launch off Thunder Waves near to fearlessly with the lack of Yache Berry Garchomp.

(posting because Tangerine said to)
 

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